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Last week, Bank of England policymakers faced expectations of rates holding at 3.75%, with nearly 90% of economists predicting “no change” despite market pricing for increases. Headline Consumer Price Index inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July from 2.6%, while core inflation held at 2.6%. Although…

Pressure builds ahead of the budget

Last week in the UK, economic data showed that optimism amongst British businesses grew in August as Lloyds Bank’s confidence index rose to 53%, the highest since the start of the Iran conflict. Business inflation expectations fell to a five-year low, whilst the latest Citi/YouGov survey showed an …

UK borrowing costs bite

Surging higher borrowing costs are expected to create further headwinds for the UK economy ahead of the 28 October 2026 budget, threatening to shrink the Treasury headroom by up to £12 billion, due to the 10-year government debt yields surging past 5.2%, as increasing energy prices reignited inflat…

Oil prices fuel inflation fears

Last week, UK investors closely monitored macroeconomic signals while looking ahead to the Bank of England's (“BoE”) forthcoming monetary policy meeting, where expectations remain firm that the base rate will be held at 3.75%. The pressure on central bank decision makers remains intense as the dome…

Inflation puts rates under pressure

The Bank of England held the base interest rate at 3.75% last Thursday by a six to three vote, the dissenters favouring an immediate increase, and warned that rates may need to rise if the energy shock feeds into more persistent inflation. It also slowed balance sheet reduction, giving gilt markets…
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