Fiscal pressures mount, but M&A drives market optimism
The UK economy presented a mixed picture last week. Retail sales fell for the ninth consecutive month, with the Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) survey revealing a sharper decline in June and pointing to further weakness in July. Although the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) ro…
HSBC Quantum World-First, Pricey Stocks ‘New Normal’, Britain's Bitter Pill
Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
(1) HSBC Holdings said it’s achieved a world-first breakthrough in deploying quantum computing in financial markets, as a race intensifies among some of Wall Street’s biggest firms to embed the cutting-edge …
Budget pressure builds as the UK economy stalls
The UK economy presents a mixed outlook as the Bank of England (“BoE”) remains cautious about inflation persistence. Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) member Catherine Mann warned of clear upside risks to inflation and advocated maintaining tight policy, while fellow MPC member Megan Greene argued …
Rate cut probability increases resulting in market rally
The UK economy presented a nuanced picture last week, with signs of stability tempered by persistent structural challenges. Inflation held steady at 3.8% year-on-year, below forecasts, fuelling speculation of a Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cut in December, with futures now pricing a 75% probability…
Morning Blast - 30th April: Fed's messiest vote, BoE on the spot, four hyperscalers and a Trump meme
Ryan and Michael Brown on a Thursday show with the Fed's messiest vote since 1992, a Bank of England decision under impossible circumstances, and four hyperscaler earnings to digest before Apple reports tonight.
On the Middle East, Trump posted to Truth Social that Iran cannot get their act togeth…
The Bank of England's Megan Greene on Monetary Policy in a World of Supply Shocks
Ever since Covid, central banks around the world have had the same problem. They have tools that are designed to modulate demand, but so many challenges have involved the supply side of the economy. Whether we're talking about supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine, and now the war in Iran, t…
While the Middle East conflict continues to drive energy prices higher, the domestic economy faces a rapid slowdown
Last week, Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene warned that central banks could not dismiss ongoing supply shocks from the Iran war as temporary. This concern follows a major hit to private sector activity. While the Middle East conflict continues to drive energ…
IMF upgraded the UK’s 2026 growth forecast positioning it as the third fastest-growing economy in the G7
Last week, Bank of England Chief Economist, Huw Pill, downplayed any near-term rate cuts, noting the central bank must keep inflation under control. Consequently, policymakers are maintaining a cautious stance, especially as Monetary Policy Committee official Megan Greene signalled a readiness to h…
Sterling Near 16-Month High, Fed on Hold & Yields Retreat
Global macro markets are sending conflicting signals: sterling is holding near a 16-month high against the euro, the Fed looks frozen in place, and bond yields are quietly retreating. For portfolio managers and macro traders, today's session is a masterclass in diverging central bank narratives.Ste…
Podcast special: Britain’s role in the global economic recovery
Covid 19 has been a crisis without borders. In a highly interconnected world, every country has felt the impacts of the pandemic, from supply chain disruption to low productivity and high inflationary pressures. Should the post-pandemic economic recovery be a global project? For decades, the UK has…
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