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UK economy defies expectations

Last week, Bank of England policymakers faced renewed monetary tightening expectations, especially as Chief Economist and Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill voted for rate hikes in four consecutive decisions, arguing that resilient quarterly growth of 0.4% in June supports higher interest ra…

Pressure builds ahead of the budget

Last week in the UK, economic data showed that optimism amongst British businesses grew in August as Lloyds Bank’s confidence index rose to 53%, the highest since the start of the Iran conflict. Business inflation expectations fell to a five-year low, whilst the latest Citi/YouGov survey showed an …
Last week, Purchasing Manager’s Index (“PMI”) mixed signals pointed to a modest UK economic recovery. Whilst UK business activity saw a first rise in three months, driving the broader economy up, manufacturing and construction remain laggards, meaning that sustainable growth will depend on whether …
Last week, Bank of England policymakers faced expectations of rates holding at 3.75%, with nearly 90% of economists predicting “no change” despite market pricing for increases. Headline Consumer Price Index inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July from 2.6%, while core inflation held at 2.6%. Although…
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