Odds and Ends

✓

การเรียกร้อง

Welcome to the first episode of NathanPMYoung live. This week, Nathan chatted to Guy, Nathan and James about the the likelihood of the US and China agreeing to slow down on AI development.

https://x.com/CharlesD353 Partner at Arb (https://arbresearch.com/), former hedge fund manager Forecasts are generally Nathan’s with some comment from Charles. Before discussion//after discussion Will Anthropic be designated a supply chain risk on May 1st?42.9%//39.4% https://www.metaculus.com/ques…

https://x.com/GaetenDTop 30 politics traderKalshi at time of recording // Gaeten’s thoughtsThis is not financial advice. Senate races:Maine: Dem 71%, GOP: 29% // Republican should be higherhttps://kalshi.com/markets/senateme/m...Ohio: Dem 52%, GOP 48% // Democrat should be higherhttps://kalshi.com/…

Andrew's Predictions (20/02/2026) Iran The US attacks Iran before end of March: 73% The US attacks Iran before end of this year: 82% Iran becomes a liberal democracy by end of next year: <<1% Iran becomes a monarchy (Pahlavi restoration): <5% Chinese AI Models We struggled to have a me…

Today we chat to Peter Wildeford about placing first in the Astral Codex Ten 2025 Prediction Contest. In the last 4 years, he has placed 20th, 12th, 12th, and 1st out of hundreds of entrants. Hard to overstate how impressive that is. We discuss how last year went and how he would forecast geopoli…

Ege Erdil is in the top 5 cleverest people I know. He is a researcher at Epoch, an AI forecasting consultancy. When we disagree, I take it seriously.

Josh Wilkes is someone I update towards on issues around China. He lived there for several years and has since done a masters degree in international relations at the National Sun Yat-Sen University in Taiwan. Predictions: - Xi Carries on in 2027 (75%) - Recession before 2025 (10%) - China signifi…

Scott Eastman is a Superforecaster who forecasts for the Swift Centre.

Peter is a top forecaster - he won a Metaculus Quarterly Cup - he’s the Co-CEO of a 50 person research org and he’s reached triple master rank on Kaggle.Peter’s election forecasts are here: https://twitter.com/peterwildeford/status/1701694389570125895  A wider set of his forecasts are here: https:…