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od 21 kwietnia 2025
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Kevin Warsh took the stage at Jackson Hole today — and left little doubt the Fed still believes it has work to do on inflation. Gold tumbled more than 3 percent on the day as the odds of a September rate hike climbed back toward a coin flip. And in the ag space, wheat exploded to a three-year high,…

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On Wednesday, with the 30-year yield sitting at a 19-year high, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the government would at least double the size of its long-term debt buybacks from two billion to at least four billion dollars per operation and targeting the 10-to-30-year part of the curve. …
The market is still working off the summer doldrums — thin, low-conviction trading — and this week's data did little to break the spell. The big commodity story this week was in Washington. On August 7th, the President convened a roundtable of mining executives at the State Department — Rio Tinto, …
The Federal Reserve held rates again this week — and it was the press conference, not the decision, that moved markets, driving long-term Treasury yields to their highest since 2007. Halfway around the world, Japan stepped into the currency market to rescue the yen from a forty-year low, and the Ba…
The escalation in the Middle East did not pause this week — it expanded. Iran and the United States continue to apply military pressure throughout the Gulf, and the Houthis appear to have opened a second front, with activity threatening Saudi shipping lanes in a separate strait. Oil has now posted …
Two macro forces defined the week. Iran and the United States escalated military pressure throughout the Gulf. The ceasefire that markets spent six weeks pricing in showed new cracks, and oil reversed its entire recent descent in a single week. And on Wall Street, the AI momentum trade that powered…
This week delivered a stark reminder that the Hormuz saga is not over. Two days of direct US-Iran clashes mid-week threatened to unravel the ceasefire that markets have been pricing in for the past six weeks. Bloomberg reported Thursday that peace talks are continuing despite the hostilities — a U.…
It's a short week heading into the Fourth of July weekend and the markets treated it accordingly, with lower volume and decisive price moves driven more by a macro narrative than fresh data. The Iran deal remains unsigned. Supreme Leader Khamenei has not publicly committed. But the cumulative weigh…
The dominant force on the board this week didn't come from a commodity market at all — it came from the AI trade, and the doubt that suddenly crept into it. On Tuesday, a wave of selling hit the semiconductor and memory names that have led this market all year. Micron fell double digits, Marvell, S…
Kevin Warsh held his first press conference as Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he used the debut to push back against the market's expectation of summer rate cuts. The read coming out of that room was unmistakably hawkish — a Fed in no hurry to ease, signaling that it intends to keep policy tight…
Zastrzeżenie: Podcast i grafika osadzone na tej stronie pochodzą z Jennifer Pickerel, który jest własnością jego właściciela i nie jest powiązany ani wspierany przez Listen Notes, Inc.