Marlins Looking Dangerous Again as Trade Deadline Eve Arrives

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Hey, this is Kyle Stowers and you're listening to Fish on First. Welcome to Fish on First Live here on the Fish on First podcast, presented by jet Ski Rentals of South Florida. We're part of the Foul Territory Network. Kevin and I we are on the same page. Started watching that intro with Kyle Stowers cueing us in, and all of a sudden, you know, gotta think about on the editing side if I have to make some sort of tweaks to the intro by the time we have our next show. This is going to focus quite a bit on all things trade deadline related, twenty three hours away from the deadline itself, but we're also on the heels of a very compelling series win for the Marlins over the Mets. So thank you to everybody joining us live on YouTube, on Twitter, on Facebook. Feel free to leave your comments, we'll pull them up. We'll answer as many questions as possible. We're gonna save some of the burning trade deadline rumors discussion for the second half of the show, just because those things keep evolving and we don't want to be too outdated. Just focus in on what we know so far and what we know so far is that the Marlins won a series against the Mets, including the last three games in a row, the last couple with myself and attendance. So we'll be relatively quick on this, Kevin. But just your main takeaways from this but not just this series, but I guess you could combining it with the Phillies one. They've won six out of seven games since it felt like the team was leaning towards being a seller, and they've played about as well as possible ever since then, including these last three where the pitching itself has especially stepped up. A shutout today. Yeah, really good baseball from this team all of a sudden, looking like June again now that we're hearing early based on how they're performing.
00:02:02
Speaker 2: Peter Bendix maybe, and one of the toughest positions in baseball, because you looked at this team after the twelve game losing streak and and the position felt good. Right, You're gonna go into a spot where you're not gonna sell, particularly but you can't. You're not gonna buy either. You're not gonna buy Reynolds. You're not gonna go for Renolds. This week of Marlins baseball, you know, makes you even like for the fans. I really feel for fans because man, you're you're in such a weird spot.
00:02:30
Speaker 3: Peter is in such a weird spot.
00:02:31
Speaker 2: But this team played super well, Sandy with two great outings this week. Good today for the most part. Pitch count was a bit higher, so couldn't even get out of the seventh couldn't recording out in the seventh inning.
00:02:43
Speaker 3: Oh in that game. But Joe Mack.
00:02:46
Speaker 2: Continues to do his thing like this is this is fun. This is a fun team. This is a fun series for the Marlins, much needed after what happened in Queens the first time. And I think a big part of it too, Pete Fairbanks closing it out twice and it's just smoother and smoother each time, which is what they expected early on in the season. And you know one thing AJ was telling us on Fish and Filter and he said it multiple times, like Pete Fairbanks's safe situations hasn't necessarily been terrible.
00:03:14
Speaker 1: Now.
00:03:14
Speaker 3: Part of that is because.
00:03:17
Speaker 2: If it's been a substantial enough lead to where he doesn't totally blow it, he has blown games. But yeah, no, uh, he's starting to finally, I think execute the execution part of it is finally starting to kick in, and I think, Eli, you noted this, like his FIP is finally below five, so that's great.
00:03:34
Speaker 3: But no, it was a good it was a good serious.
00:03:36
Speaker 2: Overall offense was I think still lackluster, but I think he'll take the pitching and the way that they pitched, and you wrote about him today shout out Michael Peterson. Holy shit, like going in their bases loaded, no outs and to get out of it the way he did it was was really impressive. And that's I'm sure a name that's gonna be popping up in the next twenty less than twenty four Yeah, it's less than twenty four hours, twenty three hours until the trade deadline.
00:04:00
Speaker 3: So yeah, good series.
00:04:02
Speaker 2: Marls out just one game out, not all the games are over yet. I think they're about to be. Padres and Giants were sold out in a lout, which is a big game for the Marlins where you would like Louise Arrias and the Giants to make something happen. So yeah, they're still in a good spot. And I'm sure we'll talk about all the ramifications of how the deadline, could you know, do this and you know, change things up and position that they're in.
00:04:24
Speaker 1: Hey, he cued it in. We got to do a quick Michael Peterson segment, which was I was not expecting on this show, talking about the state of the Marlins and trade deadline and all these big things going on. He's such an important part of everything they're doing. I give you credit. I think you were sold on Peterson earlier in the year than I was. I still had my reservations until I would say, just the last few weeks when he's just continue to be graty. He survived that comeback or scare. Remember he missed a couple of games when once he got hit by a very sharp comebacker that was barely a week ago, and now he's back to normal again. But just for people that weren't watching today, like today was his masterpiece. This was his best work to this point. The fact that they were one nothing game in the seventh inning. Sandy goes out there for the seventh and he allows a couple of base runners to begin with second and third, nobody out. When Peterson comes in, he walks the lead off, got the first batter he faces to load the bases with nobody out, and then he wiggles out of it. Granted it was against some of the weaker hitters in the marrow in the Mets lineup, but he gets a strikeout, another strikeout, a grounder to leave it unscathed. He has now stranded twenty inherited runners out of twenty two, only two. I've scored on him all year long in those situations. He's become the go to guy. It's been to give you interesting compet's like Andrew Nardi in twenty twenty three for people that remember that, because I remember going through the same splits with Nardi when that was his first full major league season and he broke out in a very big way. That was where he really separated himself is with those inherited runners. And now Peterson is that guy doing the exact same thing this year, somebody that they claimed off waivers. I think two separate times. He's really bounced arounds. Essentially, he had no value in this league at this time less than a year ago, a guy that was barely, you know, in the situation to make the roster coming out of camp this year, he had to really pitch his ass off in spring training. I remember it was a storyline when he skipped the WBC just to focus on making the team. And now to me, he's been the most important reliever now that Bender has been injured. Fairbanks has been so inconsistent this year. Peterson is the one that they trust in all these different situations and the way that the win probability swung with him in the game, like from sixty five percent chance the Mets would win to twenty five percent chance in that one ending, just because he was able to wiggle out of it the way.
00:06:31
Speaker 3: That he did.
00:06:32
Speaker 1: And you kind of brought it up too though. At this time of year, the Marlins are listening on everybody, and for somebody like him, where his value has gone up so much from where it was a few months ago, they're going to get some sort of offers on him. I would think some sort of attention. That's something that the front office is always considering. And I spoke to him after the game today and just as like the parting comment, I said, what are you going to do tomorrow during deadline Day? And he said he's gonna maybe throw his phone in the water so that he doesn't have any chance to pay attention to it whatsoever. A very interesting guy at his feet too, and We hope that he has several more years left with the Marlins moving forward, because he's been a great story and important part of the team. So his presence was really felt today. A couple other things from the series as a whole. Sandy did pitch well for the vast majority of this game until that seventh inning. He gets his twelfth win of the season. They haven't been giving him much run support as of late, and yet he's still been able to with zero margin foreer, both in this game and at his previous start as well. That was a shoutout when earlier this week he's performing great. The contrast in his performance between now and where it was that the deadline last year is night and day. That's been awesome. And to me, they get Owen Casey back, that's so I guess let's talk about that briefly. He was reinstated on Saturday. He plays today, pretty quiet game from him overall, just the fact that they have him back now. And this is going to lead into some of the trade deadline discussion we have is the Marlins are really deep now and left handed hitters in particular. It's Kyle Stowers, it's Liam Hicks, it's Griffin co nine biggest of all, he's been the best one he's actually been on the field this season in terms of performance. And now it's Casey Back who's been You've been trying him pretty closely. The way that his hitting has improved steadily as the year has gone on, especially in June and July up until his injury. That's a good problem to have between all those guys that play some of the same positions, and then Jacob Marcy, another left handed hitter and the one that they can put in the center field on most days, and he's been coming around a little bit as of late two. That's kind of leading into why it is that these guys are attracting interests, why the Marlins are very openly listening on these hitters, is because it's a lot of overlap in their skill sets. A lot of guys that do things well but do some of the same things really well. And that's why we think that, you know, there's a solid chance that Marlins move off of one of them over these next twenty three hours.
00:08:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, you look at the situation with Hicks and where he's at right now, and you know.
00:08:50
Speaker 3: You notice this too.
00:08:51
Speaker 2: The position player pool and the forty man roster believe is completely healthy for the first time all season all year, which is awesome to hear and great and it's good situation to have at the end of the day. But you're also in a position where you know that means that it's a lot less playing time to go around Hicks. You're a little bit it's a little complicated because you have Navaretto on the roster, and it's not not to slade an Avatta, but he's kind of like a like a nobody on the roster, kind of like you'll get in there, here and there, not a lot. He's like, yes, essentially, he's like the Rob Brantley of last year, but he's not affecting playing time.
00:09:29
Speaker 3: That's the issue that the guy that is.
00:09:31
Speaker 2: Kind of the the the one that's blocking others from playing time, specifically, like a co nine and a case and a burt I. Guess you could make the case it's it's Hicks because Stowers is not playing first base every day, so that's that's settled. Hicks is the one that's d hing every day because Joe Mack has just been so good behind the plate, and rightfully so that that's who you should be rolling out, And that's the Marrons putting a lot of confidence in Joe Mack, which is why they're dangling someone like a Hicks and trade in the trade market. So you trade Hicks, you open the DH spot to guys like a ConA and Casey Burt who could all play there and play the outfield, and you could still play Morris and Ruiz. It's it's a very interesting situation to have. But I think if you're Peter Bendix and you know you're the Marlins, this is.
00:10:14
Speaker 3: A great situation to have.
00:10:15
Speaker 2: This is exactly the situation I have, and and the way the catching markets playing out, where no catchers have been moved, Oh only Logan O Hoppy has been moved, and that was like what is now a seller and the Rangers, I mean, Hicks is probably the most valuable catcher out there because I don't think Shay Langley has has hurt Ryan Jeffers doesn't look like he's getting traded since the Twins are in a buying position, which they've already shown with two trades that they've made. So that's an interesting case. The Marlins really could probably get more for Hicks than then Stowers are sold because of the need for a catcher. But we're talking about this in our chat just before, where just comparing you know, Hicks and Stowers and the potential returns there. I think, you know, with Houston, you're looking at a different return for Stowers, guys who are maybe a little further out but will certainly help your farm system in the long run. And with Hicks, I would hope, you know, at the end of the day, regardless of the return, I do hope that they would find a controllable starter or something that I hope they will do because I do think they need it regardless of the gud's returning.
00:11:12
Speaker 3: But they're still uncertainty next year. But no, Casey great to have back.
00:11:15
Speaker 2: He is two months stretch in June and July have been awesome. Unfortunately it was derailed by the injury. But I know who's in the lineup today. He played, didn't do much, but he'll be I think just got to give him some time to get things going. And this is a big series coming up, regardless of what the Marlins do to the deadline, because they're.
00:11:32
Speaker 3: In a good spot.
00:11:33
Speaker 2: It's a division where it's a division rival, and to say the least, the Marlins are on a spot where now they're kind of neck and neck with the Phillies for that number two spot in the MLE East, and you could be seeing a case. I don't know exactly what the division looks like right now about who knows.
00:11:46
Speaker 1: Hmm. Yeah, something that kind of jumps out to me. Something I want to emphasize is that regardless of exactly what they do at the deadline, just based on performance, this is a team that is going to be competing the rest of the year. It's it's a question, but you know how many resources they allocate towards building out the roster the rest of the season. But this is a team that is good enough to stay in the raids for the rest of the year as long as they don't sell off everybody, which we don't anticipate. We think they're going to be selective. They're going to listen offers on these significant players and might end up trading one or two guys that are a big piece of the roster. I know earlier, say you predicted that Liam Hicks and Xavier Edwards could be to those guys to go. So yeah, we're going to get into that in a moment. What I wanted to cover first is some trades that have already been made around the league that may have caught your attention for one reason or another, Ones that may impact the Marlins from some aspect, or ones that you just find out that are somewhat interesting. So I have this trade tracker from men only trade rumors that I'll scroll through and you can just stop me when something catches your eye on here. But deals that have already happened around stop to some extent, A lot of these just over the last twenty four hours or so, I guess, I guess we'll skip ahead to the Trek skoobl one just to be and with school. Well, this is a guy the as we kind of emphasize, he's the grand prize of this deadline, the crown Jewel. He was always going to be the biggest name to move at this deadline, and the Tigers pull the trigger. They send him to the two time defending champ Los Angeles Dodgers for a three player package highlighted by Zaire Hope and outfield prospect in River Ryan, who is one of the oldest pitching prospects. He is the oldest like pitching quote prospect in baseball, a guy that is exceptionally talented but actually pretty deep into his twenties and just didn't have room in that Dodgers rotation. So I guess your thoughts on that first, even though this is a guy that, of course the Marlins were never going to be in on, but just the facts as a baseball fan that has been falling across the league, and the fact that the Dodgers, it's just they do this every year getting but just when you think that they are deep enough and talented enough, as they are have enough star power, they just have these limited, seemingly limitless amounts of resources in terms of both the money they can spend it in the prospect capital because they're so good at like building up their farm system again that they end up making what the Tigers felt was the best bid on Schooble. So I do you think how much Not now a question of whether the Adgers are World Series favorites now, but I guess how much of a favorite do you think they are now over every other team now that they added him to a team that itself was already running away with the NL West.
00:14:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean This is such a They really did not need Derek School when you think about it. They have guys coming back from injuries. Well, Tani, at some point we'll probably pitch again. You have like Snell Tyler Glass. Now, I mean they've got guys. Like to say that they've got guys, They've got guys. They already have Yamamoto in the rotation. Shehan's still there. I yeah, No, this is just like the cherry on the top at this point, but it's a very big cherry on the top because this is the best pitcher in baseball.
00:14:50
Speaker 3: You can make the case.
00:14:51
Speaker 2: He's supposed to make his first start I think on Tuesday against the Cubs and Wrigley, so that'll be interesting. But yeah, when you look at the package, though, it's a little underwhelming in my opinion, like the actual package itself. Now it needs to be noted this is for Trek Schooble, who is a rental. So there's the factor of, hey, School is the best pitcher in baseball, but you're also trading for a rental. So you know, La wasn't gonna give up much in Detroit despite asking for so much. Had to meet somewhere in the middle I feel like you look at this package, and a lot of teams could have matched this. In fact, I think a lot of teams could have even given a better package. But I think the big difference between the Dodgers and the other teams is that, unfortunately, and this is the part of a bigger scale thing where we'll talk about the lockout and all this stuff, the Dodgers are probably the only team out of the ones that were in contention to get Schooble that could probably re sign him if they wanted to after the season, right to a big contract. The Rays were never gonna resign him, The Brewers were never gonna resign and I'm assuming the Brewers were gonna have to give up like Ajesus made and the Rays we're gonna have to give up like a Theo Gillen who's their top prospect. So it's not worth it for those teams to give up those I obviously they could have in the long run and potentially even lock up to a more affordable deal, you know, in terms of an extension for a guy like Derek Scouogle, who will be there for half a season and who knows if he blows out his arm, in the second start. He already had some injury scares early on in the season, or actually not a scary, he had a legit injury. They kept them out for quite a bit, so you know, it's it's a difference. It's a tough situation. I would of love to see him on the rais but hey, the Rays went out and got Freddy Peralta. I know he struggled this season, but maybe the change of senior could help him. And well, the Brewers still need a pitcher, so we'll see what happens there. But at the end of the day, like you look at this like it definitely like just give the World Series trophy. But the Blue Jays took the Dodgers to seven games and extra innings of the World Series, So it makes me think that maybe, just maybe the Dodgers won't win it all and you know they're gonna go for a three repeat, and rightfully so they At the end of the day, you can talk about the money spending, you could talk about all that, but the Dodgers develop, and that's one of the things too. They aren't buying these prospects. I can promise you that they're they're drafting them like everyone else. They're going into the international market like everyone else, and they just have a better development system and a lot of their team, although is bought by free agency, they do have guys that they have developed themselves. Pa Has they had to go Vargus who they ended up trading. You know, you have Will Smith, who I believe they they got themselves. It's like they are guys that you know, are on that team that they developed, and part of that package was those type of players. So they're just gonna dish them out for a guy like School who's really good. So unfortunately this isn't very good for the lockout because now probably this is a big example as to why big market teams continue to run the markets like they have. But it's a big trade and the Dodgers got a lot better.
00:17:45
Speaker 1: M Yeah, well there's just a few more minutes pressing through some of the trades that ever made. So Freddy Peralta, another rental starting pitcher, get moved by the Mets for three prospects to.
00:17:54
Speaker 3: See him on hug Watch. You got to see him on hug Watch, right, Yeah.
00:17:59
Speaker 1: He was supposed to pitch against the Marlins earlier in this past series and got scratched because the trade interest was picking up. Yeah, aside from that, not too many blockbusters to this point or huge names we saw. I guess the next biggest one was the Yankees acquiring Luis Garcia Junior from the Nats for a four player package. That a lot of quantity, definitely a quantity over quality type of deal. There another player that, despite being just in his mid twenties, he's surprisingly close to free agency, having an amazing year career year for the Nats, And yeah, I guess my main takeaway from that is this is a nat scene that already traded Curtis Mead just the week before to Austin. We'll see if they end up making any sort of interesting additions between now and the deadline, but this is a team I think they did lose again today where it was it spreads a lot of people that they were even in contention this deep into the season, but now three games under five hundred, so three games back of the Marlins and four and a half back of a wild card spot. In the fact that they were willing to make this trade Kevin for mostly prospects. Prospects is a low leverage reliever in Jake Bird. I think that signals that this is a team that's not going to be pushing too hard in this race, that this is one of those teams that as it got closer to decision time that maybe they do have enough star power on the offensive side to like keep things going. But this has been such a crowded and l wild card race, and it looks like that is one of the teams that has faded just enough so that the Marlins it's a less less competitive field for the Marlins if they're actually gonna stick in this race. Now that the Nats have come back down to Earth, you could say.
00:19:32
Speaker 2: They'll come back down to Earth, but it kind of it's kind of like what the Marlins are gonna try to do with Hicks, right, You're gonna try to trade a position player. You know, this was another different type of prospect package. The Yankee system, in my opinion, is not the best and clearly, you know, it shows what the package the prospect package, and they had to include Jake Burden there to get the stun I was probably just a throw in to maybe change the seniory type of guy, who, by the way, was part of that first game after the deadline that the Marlins ended up coming back from beating the Yankees. He was part of the blow up and he got sent down a triple A the next day. But yeah, no, this was an interesting deal because it's also them taking advantage of Louis Garcia's peak. I mean, Louis Garcia never put up this type of a season, and the Yankees needed a first baseman and Garcia is that type of guy who could help him. I believe he's under club control up until after the twenty twenty seventh season, that maybe when he hits free agency in twenty eight so it's a good deal. They'll have him for another year and it's probably better ballpark for him. It's a more hitter friendly option ballpark for Garcia. And he was a long time that too, So that was that was definitely I guess not He's not the Marlins clar by any means, but you know, he was a guy who was in the division for a while.
00:20:41
Speaker 3: The Marlins were very familiar with him, and he's now off to the Bronx.
00:20:47
Speaker 1: So yeah, that will continue to monitor live on this show. Any other breaking trains that may happen over the next half hour or so. But we'll go to a break here from Jessekee Renolds' South Lord and then come back talking. But do you guys really want to hear? Which is the latest on the Marlins and some of their potential trade candidates and what they may actually do or not doe leading up to tomorrow's deadline. So stick with us friends at Jetski Rentals of South Florida. They presents all of our podcast efforts here on fish on First. Miami's best jet ski in boat adventures Jetske Rentals of South Florida with six JITs ski locations and over one hundred and twenty boats to something for every style and every budget ride Jetski's ruding from the Downtown Skyline in Ferris Wheel, or book your own private boat starting as love as three hundred dollars with the captain included, Bring your drinks to your friends and enjoy the water your way. The boat is completely yours for the time you reserve it. The reservation based only. To book call three oh five nine nine oh two one nine two or check them out online at SF jet ski rentals dot com. Make sure to use our promo code phish on first, and that gets you a ten percent discount off your next booking again that's three oh five nine nine oh two one nine two or online at sf jetski rentals dot com. Welcome back to the show f LEF Live Here Elis Susman Kevin Burrall talking about where the Marlins stands on the eve of the deadline. An early heads up that we will have another stream on deadline day itself starting at five Eastern, an hour before the deadline, going up right through the deadline, so that will be very entertaining actually summing up what the end up doing counting down to the deadline itself on the Marlin's off day. But what we know so far, Isaac's reporting has summed it up quite a bit from earlier today. The time stamp is always very important because these things change quickly. But from Isaacazoo to upfish on first about how the Kyle Stowers reports that we've seen aren't surprising. The Marlins have indicated that they'll listen on most of their roster and have an abundance of left handed bats, something we touched on earlier, and that with Casey being back healthy again that means tours is potentially expendable I don't know if I would use that word myself, but Isaac confirming that they are having multiple conversations about Liam Hicks. Some names that have come out from other reports, including the Athletic is that the Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays are in on hit. So, yeah, Kevin, what is a Let's start with Hicks first, because we've already given a lot of attention, and I know you've formed some opinions yourselves about him and where he might go. And at this point do you think it's how likely do you think it is at the end of finding a deal for Hicks, even with all these years of control ahead, even with how cheap he is. Yeah, now that they're specific teams involved, and that we're getting right down to it, what was your good feeling on whether it's gonna happen or not.
00:23:28
Speaker 2: I personally think Hicks is on the move. It's just it's one of those situations where we were talking about, you know, trading players at their peak value. You would be trading Hicks at his peak value. You know, this is a guy who, despite playing a lot of the agent first base, still can catch, and he catches here and there. I think he caught in this Mets series at least once. But he's not gonna have an opportunity to do that here in Miami. And there's teams that need catching, regardless if I put it, they need catching, Boston needs catching, Tampa needs catching, the White Sox need catching. There's teams that he could go to where he would probably be probably be more valuable at least on the defensive side of things to those teams rather than the Marlins. And the Marlins have an abundance of position players that could slot into that spot. You have Sotours, you have Casey Conine, and the minor leagues. You have Cam Canerella, you have Camp Balderman. You have guys that are gonna be able to slot into those position player spots regardless of.
00:24:29
Speaker 3: How it comes to be.
00:24:30
Speaker 2: And when it comes to a replacement, Stowers is already playing first Camp Balderman could get called up at some point to play some first base. You also play in the outfield. And they're in a good spot. I mean, Conin and Casey have been really good. Conine, especially coming out of the All Starberry because practically carried this line up and been one of the more clutch guys so I think trading Kicks is the best option here. If you don't get the right package, for example, you just leave this to the offseason, because regardless that they could still make this work. But I think the right thing right now would be two trade Hicks if if you get a good offer, I would love for them to trade for like a controllable starting pitcher. I've pounded on that for a while. I've made that very clear. Well would happened unlikely, But this does feel like one of those trade deadlines where you could see a lot of major leagua from Major League of trades, and that's been the wide reporting from many people. Ken Rosenthal, who said it on Fout Territory jeffassing This said, like a lot of people said major league for major league trades could happen. I wish that the Mordins would do that with Hicks. I feel like that that's unlikely, knowing Peter in the way that he operates, and they could all they feel like there's a lot of guys in double and TRIPA that are knocking on the door, and if that's how they feel, they really don't need that. I wish they would have addressed the starting pitching because smiling probably gonna be on an inning's limit next season. Thomas White, you don't know what you're gonna get from him. You don't even know if you'll get called up early on major innings limit. I mean Max Meyer, who knows when he's coming back. It seems like September we haven't heard anything about him. So at this point it's just a matter of, Hey, like you probably need a starter with multiple years of control. Boston is a team that's in there for Hicks. I would have loved the guy like Peyton Toley.
00:26:10
Speaker 3: I don't know.
00:26:11
Speaker 2: I don't think that will happen. I think it's unlikely.
00:26:12
Speaker 3: I wrote about it.
00:26:14
Speaker 2: Boston is in a position where they don't have a lot of starting pitching depth to begin with, and they already traded a starting pitcher away I believe, so they don't need to trade. They don't need to do that right now. And Totally is a guy who they have for I believe a couple more years of control. So but it is a left tended option. It's a guy who could, you know, give you a different look every fifth day when I was rolling out a full right handed starting rotation. Totally would be a different look for sure, that could help. But yeah, the Morns also needs starting pitching. I mean, Junk, Gusta, and Phillips just aren't the answers right now in my opinion. I don't think Junk has done enough to remain a starter. Gusto clearly is not the best option, and I think Tyler Phillips, despite holding down that spot, you know, for the most part fine, I think, would just be a better fit as a high leverage reliever.
00:26:59
Speaker 3: So I think Higgs should be the guy to go.
00:27:01
Speaker 2: Not saying that he is a bad player and the Bombs don't need him, They clearly do need him. He'd be a good piece to keep. But if you have to choose between Stoars and Hicks, who'd probably garner the better return and who is just going to open things up a little more for the current state of the roster, Hicks is that guy?
00:27:16
Speaker 1: Mm Oh yes. So I think we've had some echo issues on the stream the last few times, and I think we still do. That just popped up right in the middle of the show. So I think I gotta keep Kevin muted every time that I talk. No offense to you is the streaming software that we're using just to fall up on Hicks a little bit. I think the question about whether why now potentially dealing in with four and a half years of control still to go, when he's still so affordable. Part of it is the positional fit on the team, where it's just that he's a lot less valuable if he's to be clear, even though we started playing first base earlier in the year, as of late, he's a DH. He's a DH that occasionally pitches in at first base and catcher. He's almost very, very heavily used at DH in a way where the threshold for what you need to do as a hitter to justify that is just so high in a way that he reaches that threshold because he's such a good contact hitter, because he's very disciplined, he uses the whole field, and because he has a little bit more power this year than he had last year. That being said, it just makes him less valuable to the Marlins than he does to other teams as well. And it's also the angle that two months is still could be a reasonably large sample size. A lot can change in a couple of months, and just personally, I don't know how the Marlins feel themselves. I suspect they kind of feel similarly that I don't necessarily trust him to perform well the last next couple of months. I feel like his value if you already feel that he's not a easy fit with what you currently have, and you have so many other pieces with comparable skill sets, all these other left handed hitters that we touched on who do and there's any reason to think that he might regress a bit the next two months, then it's a significant difference in terms of what you could get now versus what you could get a couple of months from now. If down the show he only hits two or three homers all of a sudden, he doesn't have as much luck on balls and play, and if he in limited action as a catcher, if he doesn't perform well defensively, which is I think that's part of it, too, that if you don't catch particularly often, that it's hard to be consistent with that. I don't think they're putting it in a position to be successful defensively because they're prioritizing Knack over him understandably, so, so I think that's kind of part of the reason why they might do it now because it's already such a win for the organization how much he's improved from where he was a Rule five draft pick. I like to frame it this way. I don't think people really sinks in with people. A Rule five draft pick is a glorified waiver claim.
00:29:37
Speaker 3: That's all it is.
00:29:37
Speaker 1: That's a guy that didn't make the roster of his previous team that you get for one hundred thousand dollars, you get for a one month's salary. That's the cost to claim him, like they got him for nothing, and he's turned into this and through no fault of his own. That's kind of why he's in these rumors, is because he could be very valuable to a lot of other teams, a lot of teams that are more needy for catchers, that are willing to use him as if not their primary catcher, then something close to an even split with another catcher, like when he's in that position, then all of a sudden, what he does as a hitter is more than enough to make him an important player on those teams. So I wouldn't say that he has to go, But because ultimately depends on the specifics of these offers, we're still trying to get a clear idea in terms of what those specifics might be. It's just that's why, despite having so many years of control, even though he's really usually don't see guys like this get traded at the deadline. I feel he could be an exception just for those reasons. Aside from that, I guess we'll go on to Stours a little bit and show off this edit that you made in an Astros uniform. Yeah, go ahead and speak on where we are with Stowers Kevin, because this is a name that we knew they would be open minded, but wasn't top of minds until these rumors broke earlier today.
00:30:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is an interesting situation with Stours because I think the big thing to note here before we even talked about the Sturs stuff, is they're not trading both. I would be absolutely stunned if they trade Stours and Hicks that that's not gonna happen. I believe that they will trade one or the other. I believe right now it's just a matter of who gives you the better return, Stours or Hicks, Because at the end of the day, if Stowurs gets traded, Hicks is the first baseman moving forward, and that's it. You know, you could call up Gus and he would catch and here and there, not a lot, and Novi's just there that that's what it would be if you trade Hicks. Obviously already spoke about what that means. And I think regardless if if you trade Stours, that opens up the DH spot as well, because Hicks would be your first baseman. So so that's that's that they're not trading both expect only one of them to get moved.
00:31:45
Speaker 1: Now.
00:31:46
Speaker 2: I think we saw this, and something to note is that Houston doesn't seem like they want to trade from their big league roster. I think there was a report earlier either this week or last week that the Twins try to had to deal with the Astros for reliever Brian A. Brave and the owner Jim Crane Knicks to trade. He said no, he doesn't want to trade from the big league roster. So for anyone trying to say that the Marrows are gonna go after camp Smith, which would be a fair assumption to make, given that is the guy they wanted to draft in the twenty twenty four draft, and he would not. He's only twenty three cyl under plenty of club control, it would it would have been the right guy to go after. But I don't think that's gonna happen. I don't see that happening. I think if the look at their farm system, it's it's one of the worst in baseball, regardless of the type of prospects.
00:32:31
Speaker 3: That they have there.
00:32:31
Speaker 2: It's twenty six in baseball according to Baseball America. So am I still there? Okay, I'm here. Yeah, you're muted, but it's okay. Yeah, they have Xavier Kneans, Kevin Alvarez, Logan Hughes, They've got guys Ethan Pecco, Lucas Spence, who I know. I think that is the guy that Tyler Phillips said he had no clue who he was, so that would be quite the trade if they get that guy on the Marls. Tyler Phillips will now know who that is. But yeah, there are there are prospects. I mean, they're guys that they could definitely make the trade for. And definitely the Marls do need to add some younger talent. I mean, currently there are guys, but there's not a lot of talent at that level. That will change now with the draftees going in there and beginning their playing career their pro careers soon. But they could always add more and Stours would certainly. I guess the ASTROSK farm system is the epitome of guys who aren't exactly ready, but you know, have talent. So they could get some guys from there and just hope that you know, what they have already in double and triple A will certainly help them in the future. So it's an interesting situation with Stowers, who's your All Star last season, certainly add some power to the lineup. Got off to a slow start this season, but overall has had a good year and he's well on his way to I think a twenty homer season.
00:33:56
Speaker 1: Just to address this question about the Astros and what they have is a pharmacist them that I think across the board is in the bottom third of baseball in terms of talents, and that might even be generous. I think that they're twenty six on the Baseball America right now, as best as they can rank it. Just to share some names of interest from our prospects guru from Alex Carver that stood out potentially from that organization. Who do we have that kind of draws interests that even if Cam Smith is off limits because he's on the big league rosterm because he's ready, might be uh oh, they've Exavier Nions. I forgot that even though had pronounce his name, but he was their first round pick relatively recently. And Jogger Beck seems good too. That's from Alex Carver. So between Nions and Beck, maybe you put something together that makes sense. But I don't think there's a headliner there that I would love for Stours you touched on before. I think there's some interesting variance and opinion on here in terms of whether Hicks or Stowers would bring back more in return. Stowars, of course has his one monster year in twenty twenty five, and then this year it's been It's started off extremely slow and now he's off to He's in a really good spot right now. But overall the production is good but nothing special. And Hicks this particular season, you would say he's outperformed him as an overall player by a little bit, even though he's now very steadily coming back down to earth himself. Hicks has an additional year of control. He's going to be a lot cheaper next year as Stowars finally enters arbitration. They're about the same age. Stowars is a year older, or so a year and a half. To me, I still think Stowars is more valuable if you look under the hood with him. The fact that he is a guy that has so much power that that is something that seems value more than contactability. And both of them have decent discipline. I'd say Hicks has slightly better played discipline, but the fact that Stowars has power to all fields. Hicks is very dependent on polling balls over the fence for home runs. Even though Hicks has improved as an overall hitter, I think Stowers upside is still a lot more tantilizing to these teams. And the fact that he has even know he's not a great defender anywhere either, he's fine in the corner of outlefield spots, and he is I think I'd say he's fine so far as the first baseman as well. So it's it's interesting how you weigh that. Because Hicks being a catcher, that's valuable in itself, but there's a reason why he's being bumped off of out of the Marlins long term plans, and that's because defensively he's below average for that position and significantly inferior to what they have in house with Joe Mack. So I would still think that Stours, if he is Delty's the one that brings back more and but I don't think now is the right time to deal him again. I feel that the power that he has to all fields and the upside he has when he's going well, I think that's a lot more difficult to replace for this Marlins team. So even though there are some things in common between him and there is that you could say, a surplus of left handed hitters, to me, I think he's the one that's more important to keep, maybe not extend. I don't I'm not on board with necessarily buying him out too deep into his thirties, But I think for the rest of this season and for twenty twenty seven, Sturs is the one that I think I'd rather have. So where are you on that? Between those two?
00:37:08
Speaker 2: I agree Stours that's I think we keep just more valuable over all. In terms of the play at first base, I know people think it's not been very good. I think the eye test would say it's been actually decent. He's held up at least for a guy who's never played there. It's much better than I would have anticipated to begin with. And again, I just think this is the right time to trade Hicks. This is where his value is best. This is where teams are gonna overpay for someone like Hicks because they know they need catching and they know someone like Hicks could help you. I would honestly even go on to say that Hicks would be a good fit for the Astros.
00:37:40
Speaker 3: They need to catch. Help that catching.
00:37:42
Speaker 2: They have some of the worst offensive production in baseball when it comes to the catching position. I don't know if you kept this, and when you were editing the article, I had even mentioned the Phillies as an option. They have the second worst production at catching offensive catching production in baseball. If a team like the Phillies were to go on and say, hey, we're gonna overpay for Hicks, I don't care. It's a division rival, but I don't care you make it. You don't play your division rival as often as you do. You know, two years ago, so it's a different situation now. On intradivision trades are still a little bit more common than usual. But I think I think Hicks is the right got to move in terms of just who you want to keep. And I know Star Wars could potentially give you the better return, but I think Hicks is the guy you move just with the years of control, how cheap he is, and and the Marls seem to want to keep Stoars just in the sense where, hey, they tried to extend this guy, and maybe they tried to do that and now they're just open to moving him. But I think Hicks is who you move in Stoars is who you end up keeping, and I think that's just more likely in general to happen.
00:38:43
Speaker 1: And when it comes to Star Wars, I mean one other separator I think is there is some intangible quality to it, Like Star Wars has this really innate leadership ability, Like he is a guy that despite having two experience at the big league level, this is a clubhouse where really none of the hitters are all that experience, and he I just think that he really speaks well for the rest of the organization and kind of sets the tone. He's a guy that has put a lot of work in kind of the mental aspect of the game, and I think he has a lot of wisdom relative to his lack of experience when it comes to that in a way that the team values. So if people were kind of confused about why he was in extension talks in the first place, despite being under control through age thirty one already, and despite the inconsistency in his track record, especially prior to twenty twenty five, I think that stuff matters too. So that's nothing against Hicks. That's just an asset that Stalwarts has that this team might value. When you talk about Hicks being a little less valuable to the Marlins, they might be to other organizations. This is an area where star Warts just might be a little more valuable to the Marlins and elsewhere because he just fits really well with their culture, with the way that they analyze everything. He's just been really on board to making a lot of adjustments in his games and really interpreting the data and what it says about how we can improve and un lots the best version of himself. It's just him him being such a great fit for this organization. I think that's one of those other factors that goes into it why they would be a little reluctant to move him unless they get really overwhelmed by the Astros or another team. Aside from that, I guess we should touch quickly on Fairbanks. I don't think there's been any particular rumors with him, but he's the one pending free agent on this team. He's the one guy that is he's gonna be gone after the season. You're not gonna get anything in return if you hold on to him through the season and he's performed just well enough. You touched on it earlier that he has been so good as of late, five straight scoreless appearances, four the more perfect until today. Today there's a little bit more suspense, but he still gets through a scoreless ending for another save, So seventeen saves overall heading into the deadline for him, and the underlying strikeout rate is actually above his career average, even though he's been inconsistent. I don't know, is there any particular team in mind, Kevin, that you think would go for Fairbanks understanding that the return is not going to be too big. But if the Marlins do eat all the money that is owed to him given his track cuck or give him his recent performance, he's he's surprised me. A couple of weeks ago. I didn't think there was any hope to actually salvaging a trade. But even maybe there's a team that looks at him more as a setup guy and is not necessarily relying on him to be a closer, that he still has something to contribute to a team that's trying to contend.
00:41:18
Speaker 3: I guess you could just go back to Tampa.
00:41:20
Speaker 2: Like if Peter wanted to be a guy who just tells me, Hey, where do you want to go, he would probably go back to Tampa. And you get a low end, top thirty guy in their system and you call it a day. I mean, I'm sure Pete wants to go would love to go back to Tampa, and he wouldn't be the closure because they have Brian Baker there now. But I'm sure he could be a good middle reliever or setup man in Tampa and Lamars just take on the money. I'd have to assume they would take on the money and any Pete Fairbanks straight, just because you kind of have to at this point. But I was told this is not a Josh Bell situation that we saw in twenty twenty four where they'll just dump him for cash. They will actually try to acquire something of value for Fairbanks. So I'm curious see what that ends up looking like. Seattle may use them, may need them, and Munos hasn't had the best of seasons. And then I guess you got to look at like the Yankees and the Dodgers as options. As much as you hate to mention those teams, but they could all use Fairbanks at least, you know, hopefully saying hey, maybe a new change, another change of scenery could help them. But I would just say just ship them off bat of Tampa. Let's be you know, if if the Martins don't really plan on keeping in past the season, and they probably won't, just just strip them off to Tampa, eat the money, get a low and top thirty prospect that goes for any team and just call it a day with him.
00:42:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd agree. I'm not going to go to in particular on landing spots for him, because almost any team that's really going for he could use relief help. Is an interesting spot for the Marlins because, as we've touched on as of late, you know, they don't have an especially deep open unless you know for sure that Anthony Bender will come back and how soon he'll come back, it seems like he's still a little while away. I remember in the fact that they do have some guys at Triple A that are still going to be interesting in getting a long look. They're about to get Josh Ecknes back. That's going to help. He could be on this roster as soon as their next game against the Braves, and we'll get to that series very shortly, so that will help. But I think overall, outside of Fairbanks and outside of Michael Peterson, and as long as they have John King, and that's another guy that you highlighted in your predictions article today, that's another guy that could be traded, just not because Tomorrowlins necessarily love their depth behind him, but just the philosophy that relievers are really volatile, that even when you think a guy has it all figured out, it could really go downhill in a hurry, especially if they get hurt. So when their value is way up, especially from where it had been starting the season, then I think this is a front office that is going to be tempted to capitalize on that. The curve balls that they didn't do it at all last year. Last year when they were clearer, it seems on paper to be a clearer seller than they are right now. They didn't move a single reliever at all and try to catch it on those, So that's what that's part of the addictability of this entire exercise. But I think the last thing we'll touch on is Xavier Edwards, just because there have been some rumors around him, and he's another one that you predicted could be on the move just given the fact that he's limited. He's a good second basement, but also limited. A second basement doesn't have that versatility that this organization puts a big premium on. And he is due for a significant raise in arbitration this upcoming off season, so we've seen him linked to a couple teams. Yeah, just your thoughts right now, just explaining your thought process in terms of why they might be willing to move a guy that's been on the field essentially every single day for them this season.
00:44:39
Speaker 2: He's in an interesting spot because they I think the long term answer second base is a little easier to define than the one at shortstop right now, because Iva isn't a sure thing to stick there. He could go to third for the short term. I guess you just call up I mean not call up you. You have to know he and Jimenez split it up in some sort of way, and you recall Paully to play more or third in the short term of it. Obviously that's not what you want. But X is another guy. I could see them trying to do major league for major league type trade. And there's teams that have shown interest in X in the past. The Nationals tried to get X when he was a prospect in twenty twenty three, and I believe I don't know this was mentioned if Boston tried to get X in the off season twenty in this pass offseason before they traded for them Durban. So it's it's a thing where you know there there have been teams that want X, and Boston is one of them. It seems like the talks between Boston and Miami have died when it comes to Otto, but for X, it seems like it could be more possible. And I think the Rays were also mentioned as a potential fit. Funny because they traded him to Miami, but they could use them if they don't get a rise, they could get X. And X is a guy who has plenty of years of control. So and it seems like the Giants are really asking for the sun and the moon for guy, like.
00:45:51
Speaker 3: For for a rise.
00:45:53
Speaker 2: So it's it's an interesting situation to be in, and it's it's one that I don't envy the Marlins right now because they have a lot of guys that they can move off of and they could still somewhat stay competitive mm hm.
00:46:06
Speaker 1: And with him, I guess the last thing I'll say is I don't want people to forget about the guys they have in Triple A. Like, this team does have some very interesting players at Triple A that have had bad seasons when they've played at the big league level of so far, but it's not like out of the realm of possibility that they can contribute down the stretch and fill some holes that open up as a result of these trades. A name that sticks out when you bring up X is Condor Norby, who once upon a time was a second baseman. I believe the last Saturday, just yesterday, he played second base at Triple A. He has been mixing in second and third and left field down there. He's moved off of a second just because X is a better defender there than he is. But Norby still has interesting offensive potential that we've seen even at times early this season. He was unfiltered with you and me a few months ago, and because he looks like his approach was better than ever, it's such a long season. That's what I just remind you is like, this is a guy that there's reason excited about earlier in the year, and then I think he was deservedly demoted about a month ago at this point, a little more than a month ago. And it's not all that crazy that he could come back and help them win games. Play some second, play some third, between those two.
00:47:13
Speaker 2: And and first base and first. He was a good first baseman, at least according to the numbers.
00:47:18
Speaker 1: That's true, and he was playing primarily first base this year before he got sent down and things evolved. It's something just to keep in mind that I think needs to be emphasized when it comes to these deals and why it is that the Marlins may be surprisingly open to moving everybody from Hicks just hours to X to I don't think Otto is a serious candidate at this point. That rumor got a little overblown, the fact that they're willing to move a lot of their different position players. I think comes down to the fact that they do have some very interesting depth at Triple A that have shown flashes of being effective at the big league level and could still be effective this season, as soon as this season and certainly in twenty twenty seven and beyond, Guys that are under club control and have real skills that I think are madely caliber. Even as overall players that hasn't shown up they have, they've if they're utilized in the right way, they can still be important winning pieces for this team. Yeah. So with that, I think we're gonna wrap things up with Prediction Time, a reminder that will come back with another deadline specific show tomorrow that's gonna be all things deadline related. So we're gonna make our serious predictions now for the Brave Series, even though we don't know exactly who's gonna be on the team. There's an off day in the middle, and of course there's the deadline in the middle that could take up these rosters. We're gonna head right into our favorite segment right now, heading into that three game set between Miami and the Braves at Truest Park. Once I get a little clip where is my Prediction Time clip? There? It is this is prediction time. That's my prediction, but who knows? Back here with prediction time. This is the latest update of the leader board. I haven't updated it yet following this most recent series just because I've been extremely busy driving back from the ballpark, et cetera. This is how it looks. Oh, those were the actual predictions. I need to pulp the leaderboard itself. So let me buy myself one more minute to get the leaderboard itself when it was most previously updated after that Philly series. What we do is you get points for predicting who's going to win the series, specifically how many games Barns will win, who will be the series MVP. As the term by win probability added. The calculation for this last series is going to be a funny one, just because nobody had Michael Peterson as their series MVP, and he would have been by the letter of the law, he would have been the most valuable player over the course of this series. But this is where things stood entering this weekend. Jeremiah Geiger, our fof contributor, a few points ahead of everybody else. But we keep track of this for our staffers, our livestream guests and our valued super subs as well. So there'll be a page on the site tomorrow for the Brave series that will ye let you know where things stand and give yourselves an opportunity to join in on the fund and support us as well as a super sub. I'm gonna cueue up the music and then bring in Kevin and the Trade Deadline till yeah, Kevin is let me know that we could have done this at the end of the Trade Deadline show, but that show's gonna be so long as it is that I want to keep that focus entirely on that. And so we're gonna give our predictions right now and do it blindly because to to be honest, we haven't been particularly effective at these predictions all season long, so I think it may be less information is better in terms of trying to blindly guess this without really knowing at all. Who's going to pitch when, YadA, YadA, YadA. So here goes to music and uh, yeah, Kevin, your predictions for the three game set?
00:50:39
Speaker 2: Alrighty I know he'll be on the team. So Marlins will take two three I think to go in to Atlanta. They're playing good baseball Braves have been here and there.
00:50:47
Speaker 3: They have good pitching. We'll see what they do at the deadline.
00:50:49
Speaker 2: They added Leane Thomas and I think Bailey Falter from the Royals yesterday, so we'll see what that does. They'll at some point make their debuties. And I think Joe Macki is a serious MVP.
00:50:59
Speaker 3: He will be a Marlin.
00:51:00
Speaker 2: If he's not a Marlin, I don't know what I'll say, Honestly, I think we'll all be pretty mad. But yes, Drue Mac MVP marles s take two out of.
00:51:08
Speaker 1: Three, Okay, I will go with the Marlins winning the series as well. Again, not gonna overthink this one because so much can change between now and then taking two out of three against Atlanta, a team that's in great shape, that has built a pretty comfortable lead across the NLF, so they're not going to be living and dying with every pitch the same way that the Marlins are. We know that Truest has been a house of horrors for the most part for the Marlins ever since it opened almost a decade ago. But I think we'll be able to do just enough over the course of those three games. The off day in between, well, that's gonna help for both teams. So I think you're gonna see very high quality of play between these two organizations. And once again, I'll have to go, like Kevin, pretty conservative with the guy that I trust to actually be with the organization, and you know what, I'll actually pivot a little bit on that just because he's been in rumors today. I still strongly believe that Kyle Stowers is going to be a Marlin post trade deadline, and I think he's going to be pretty motivated to play well once he stays around, and you know, stick it to the team for even making him reasonably available in the first place. So well, Towers is still going to be a Marlin. In my estimation, I think he's going to hit it at least one home run against Atlanta, the returning to the site where he was an All Star Game participant, returning to the site where he participated in that All Star Game swing off. So as on the fly here, I'm building more and more conviction than Kyle Stowers having a good series, as the Marlins will climb to four games over five hundred by the end of that three game set.
00:52:39
Speaker 2: Of come.
00:52:42
Speaker 1: So that's fof live here. On the Fish On First Podcast presented by jet Ski Rentals of South Florida. I just again on the fly coming up with how we want to do this. I think what it will do is will take predictions from everybody else on the Deadline show and kind of just stitch it together with the ones that we gave right here. I'll be a good point in comparison between us flying blinds in them coming in with more information about what actually happened at the deadline. So yeah, I had another remind you that we'll be back here to focus more on the deadline, to answer more of your live questions. We'll go live right around five Eastern time tomorrow, an hour before the deadline, feeling pretty hopeful that the Marbins will have made some moves by den, and then we'll stay on through the deadline just to be sure that we're not missing anything that happens in the aftermath of six pm Eastern time. So should be a good time. We know that a lot of the Marvels are just a very creative team, So even though we've tried our best to kind of predict things and point in a certain direction in terms of what they could do, we are fully aware we're not gonna We're gonna be humbled by the fact that unpredictable things could happen, and we're gonna embrace that and analyze it as best we can in real time. For all you guys from Kevin Barrall and Els Susman, thanks again for your support and for tuning in. And yeah, so we'll be streaming again less than twenty four hours from now. As always, go Fish.