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Midterm elections week starts with Bitcoin around $78,000. The odds now give Democrats a 73% chance of sweeping the House and Senate, and for stocks that history is fine: in the last 19 midterm years the S&P 500 averaged a 14.4% gain over the following year. The $40,000 Bitcoin targets come from copying the 2014 and 2018 drawdowns onto this cycle, and I don't see it. My balance is 80% that $76,000 holds on the weekly close and 20% that we dip to $66,000, which would still not be a new low. And the Binance hack is not FTX: Binance is covering users with its own money, so there is no bank run.
Chapters:
(00:00) Intro: midterm elections week starts
(01:07) Agenda: Binance hack, midterms, Bitcoin at $78K
(03:14) Can Bitcoin still drop to $40K?
(06:40) Google's worst weekend gap down, Apple next
(08:58) Gold breaks $4,000, then rebounds
(11:38) Iran headlines vs oil: Brent $115 and $95
(17:02) Midterms odds: 73% chance of a Democratic sweep
(18:40) Why crypto policy won't change either way
(20:13) S&P 500 after midterms: 14.4% average gain
(21:37) Bitcoin after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms
(26:38) Why I don't see $40K: matured cycles, no 600-day bear market
(32:24) FTX collapse vs Binance hack: the 2022 parallel
(41:07) Where the $66K target comes from: retrofitting the FTX drawdown
(44:36) Balance of probabilities: 80% hold $76K, 20% hit $66K
(46:24) Last month of the bear or first month of the bull?
(55:06) TLDR: hold, DCA through November
(57:40) Q&A: could Binance withdrawals become a black swan?
(1:00:18) Why the hack hurts confidence less than FTX: no bank run
(1:05:35) Bull narrative vs bearish targets: who is manipulating whom?
(1:15:11) Long now, or wait for a level?
(1:20:53) What if Republicans win the midterms?
(1:23:34) Moving alts into Bitcoin: wait for $87K
(1:26:34) XRP Ledger USDC mint bug: can stablecoins break?
(1:29:56) Wrap-up: election day stream tomorrow
