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Election Day, and the betting markets give Democrats a 95% chance in the House and 77% in the Senate. I think most of that is priced in, so only a Republican surprise really moves Bitcoin, and my baseline is more chop this week. I think $76,000 holds at the 50 week simple moving average, around $75,500, with about a 20% chance we see $66,000. Binance says 98% of the affected assets from the hack are already replenished, and Apple dragged the Nasdaq lower after earnings. I also walk through two trades I am building on GMGN perps: a NEAR long between $3.20 and $3.60, and Lighter near $2.30.
Chapters:
(00:00) Intro
(01:09) Election Day and Today's Plan
(04:04) Binance Hack Recovery Update
(11:04) Apple Drop Drags the Nasdaq
(13:34) Why Rotating Into AI Now Is Backwards
(15:19) Midterm Odds for the House and Senate
(16:04) How to Track the Results Tonight
(17:14) Can an Election Pump or Crash Bitcoin
(19:04) Only a Republican Surprise Moves Bitcoin
(21:14) My Baseline Is More Chop This Week
(22:44) Past Midterm Crashes in 2018 and 2022
(24:14) The Next Eight Weekly Candles
(28:39) Is This Time Different
(32:54) A Buying Opportunity at the 50 Week Average
(36:09) Building a NEAR Long Position
(39:59) GMGN Trading Campaign Prizes
(43:04) Lighter as the Main Hyperliquid Competitor
(46:04) Lighter Is Filing for a CFTC License
(48:54) Targeting a Lighter Entry at 2.30
(53:14) My TAO DCA Range From 170 to 250
(57:19) Alts Move Once Bitcoin Clears 87K
(1:01:59) Doge Over Floki for a Meme Play
(1:04:59) Rotating Alts Into Bitcoin Every Quarter
(1:05:49) Wrap Up
