Evan: At a time of so much uncertainty and when reading the news is such a source of stress, the return of the NBA is a welcome distraction. Since none of my co-hosts care about basketball or sports for that matter, I was really happy to be joined by Ben Osborne. Ben's a longtime author, writer, and editor who has covered basketball for decades and wrote Slam's latest cover story on Dylan Harper of the San Antonio Spurs. You can learn more about Ben's career. get linked to many of his stories, including the Harper one, at his website, Ben Osbournework.com. That's B-N-O-S-B-O-R-N-E-Work.com. Also, please take a moment to rate our podcast or like and subscribe wherever you listen and send us questions at admin at UBKguys.com. Now, here's my conversation with Ben. Ben Osborne welcome to Universal Basic Kalshi Guys.
Ben: Hey Evan, happy to be here.
Evan: first of all, I have to say, the last conversation I had on this podcast was about Vivek Ramaswamy's ad about Amy Acton. So we're normally discussing these incredibly depressing existential crises that we're trying to translate into betting propositions. It is such a relief to be here and be able to talk basketball. And I'm so grateful to you for giving me a distraction from the real world. So thank you, first of all.
Ben: Yeah, yeah. No, my my pleasure. Yeah, my career has been like one big like chasing of distractions, for better or worse.
Evan: Yeah. I think that's a smart way to to choose your career. So as I mentioned in the intro, you just had a cover story in Slam, which I really, really enjoyed about Dylan Harper. And I have a couple of things I wanted to ask you about. One thing that I noted you said in the article you had a chance to interview Ron Sr. Is that did I get that correct?
Ben: Yeah, I mean that was that was like the neatest thing about it. especially because that piece c I I've been involved with Slam for, you know, almost 30 years in some fashion or another, but I haven't worked there full time since 2016. And I've had jobs where I can't write for them. and I just lost slash left my most recent full-time job at the end of July. And they're always kind of the first people I tell because I know that they'll give me work because that's my family and we have a lot of history. And I don't know they the editor called me maybe like three days before and then I only had maybe th like three days to turn in the story after the fact. So generally I would like to kind of get multiple secondary Sources into a a cover story and interview, a number of people, but there really was no time for that. at least I got Dylan in person and he was he was awesome. We hung out at the slam office. But as I told the editor, I was like, Well, I have a head start. I don't need to call Ron because I have this great story about him, which if it's okay with you, I'm to talk about in
Evan: Yeah.
Ben: my piece. And I mean, I had covered Ron. I'm old enough to have been credentialed at games he played in as a bull and definitely as a Laker. Not that he would have really known me, but I I certainly covered Ron Harper. And going back before that as a kid, he was just a cool player. So I I had history with Ron Harper, who was a, you know, extremely athletic, exciting player for Miami of Ohio, and then the Cavs. And then he tore his ACL. when it was tough to come back from that and kind of reimagined himself. I'm sure you know this, but you know, reimagined himself as a role player, defender, winner, and, you know, won six rings with the Bulls and the Lakers. really amazing career he put together. Anyhow
Evan: He was he he was a great player from my standpoint. He was a a consummate team player. I I mean kind of one of those guys that always made the right play, like a glue guy you'd always have want to have on your team, and a great defensive player, which is interesting. I don't really remember him very well as the pre athletic the pre a tear of the ACL
Ben: He that
Evan: super athletic guy. yeah.
Ben: That's why it's so neat that he reinvented like he he wasn't like that. He was he was a a Jordan Light kind of. He was
Evan: He was a leaper, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Ben: really he was really like in that same that same vein. And then he, you know, obviously he had the smarts, but yeah, he just he committed himself to playing that way. And he was also like, you know, a Jordan Light on the sneaker. Side where he always had nice kicks. He didn't have you know an Air Jordan. He wore Air Jordans, but he he was always in the Nike stable. And there was a store in Brooklyn called Jordan Heads. And I knew the guy, Slam, if people don't know, is way into sneakers, also wouldn't have survived this long without support of Nike and Adidas and just really readers that care about that stuff. So, in any event, this store. was doing like a speaker series. They had some connection to Ron, who lives in North Jersey. And they wanted me to host it. And it was gonna it was mostly to talk about, you know, all the great shoes he wore in his career, but his career and it it was like February of twenty eighteen. I know this 'cause I relooked at it for the Dylan story. And was at a hotel in Brooklyn. It was really neat. Like, you know, I don't know, probably spoke to him for an hour hundred people there, some i it wasn't I don't think, you know, it wasn't the whole thing maybe never aired, but there was lots of clips on social media. And at that point, there was Ron Harper Junior who was at Don Bosco, who I guess was a senior in high school. And I'd heard of him 'cause I f you know, live in Jersey and and followed
Evan: Yeah.
Ben: hoops. And You know, he was like committed to Rutgers, not really no one really thought he'd be a pro. I I wanna say he was a two or three star recruit. not a crazy athlete, just a smart role kind of like post, you know, kind of his dad end of career style player. And so during the interview on stage, I I'm like, Yeah, so I I hear you have a a son who's pretty good. And he's like, Yeah, yeah, Ron Jr., you know, like He he's pretty good. He's gonna make the league. And even that, I'm like, he's so cocky, like you know, like Ron no no one's saying that Ron Harper Jr. is gonna make the NBA. He didn't say he'd be a star, but he just was like very matter of fact. He's like, Yeah, yeah, he's gonna make the league. And he's like, But my other son, he's gonna be a superstar. NBA superstar. I'm like, Okay, you know? And it Dylan Harper was eleven and and so anyway, yeah, so then I get to meet Dylan in late August and and I I've got to turn this story around quick. And again, you know, the mom's like a really interesting figure too, but I didn't there was no time for proper secondaries other than I I call this guy I know a a Montclair grad, actually, Justin Delaney, who runs NJ Hoop Recruit, because I wanted to talk about Dylan's kind of New Jersey bona fides. But the the the main kind of piece to the story other than all of Dylan's good quotes was that, you know, his his father had predicted all of this and it was just really, really wild that
Evan: Who
Ben: that that had happened.
Evan: I I obviously knew that Dylan Harper went to Rutgers. What's their connection to New Jersey? And is it because his wife coaches at Don Bosco? Is that why they ended up moving to Jersey?
Ben: Yeah, the mo the mom's family immigrated from the Philippines and landed in Patterson. she played at University of New Orleans, but like was recruited from New Jersey. I don't know why I mean Ron is from Ohio, I think. I don't I don't know what Ron was doing here or he met her while he was playing. and then they just settled here. Her I the other thing I did in preview, Slam did like a five video series on Dylan leading into the draft. And and they the the grandparents still live like in Ramsey or or whatever, and Dylan goes over and eats Filipino food with them. So they were like the the two brothers were very much raised, you know, in Ramsey or or North Jersey. And then the mom talks about the mom is like very Catholic. And I forget the I forget what type of brothers it is at Don Bosco, but it like she really wanted them to have that specific education. And I was looking in preparation for this. Like no, I mean they have a great football program. Dylan and Ron are the best basketball players to ever go there. I mean that's not a They weren't at a basketball factory, you know, and and that she was very adamant about that. You know, they were there for the the education, I guess to some degree, the Catholic education, and then certainly, you know, quality New Jersey private school basketball. But, you know, in this day and age it's almost quaint relative to where a lot of guys end up playing. So
Evan: I didn't know. It's they're Salesians. it's a s yeah.
Ben: Silesians, thank you.
Evan: Hmm. I I didn't I just I had to look that one up. Now before we move on, Ron O Ron Harper always seemed like a class act to me. And Dylan seems like a class act to me and has a lot of he's more athletic than I remember his father in his Bulls and Lakers career, but super smart player, like really in the Spurs are great organization and great team, and I thought he really played beautifully during the the final. last year. So am I right? Are they were they were they cool people and did you have the vibe that he was a chip off the block?
Ben: absolutely. No. Yeah, I mean R Ron Ron has always been, yeah, a good a good quote and a and a classy guy. And yeah, Dylan was just unbelievably mature. And I mean you could see that in his interviews during the finals, and then just to sit with him. yeah, I mean, he's just been around it, and I think that he picked up what it means to be a pro. And again, to have a mom that played college and has coached as well, like they they really live it, but in a in a very mature in a very mature way. So yeah, you know, t two thumbs up on the on the personality and and the way it translates to to play at the highest. Yeah, I mean you basically played the best of the season in the NBA finals on the on the biggest stage. really, really impressive.
Evan: Well, you did a you you did a really nice job in the story, even if you had a limited amount of time of showing his integration into the Spurs family, and you have Mono Ginobli and Tim Duncan and And Popovich are like peripheral characters walking around the facility while he's training and it it just s my gosh, it just just seems like an organization that's always done it right and I I'm I'm sure they psychologically profile the people that they're drafting 'cause they consistently draft people who are really high character and high basketball intelligence. So
Ben: Ab absolutely no. It's a great it's a great match.
Evan: Well, what a cool opportunity for you. All right. So, Ben, the ca the the way we do things here is we reduce everything, no matter how existentially troublesome or whatever into a betting proposition. We relate it to a Calchi market. so I'm gonna corrupt your expertise into thinking through some of these markets at the start of the season and maybe we'll revisit them when the playoffs come around. So let's talk a little bit about the market for who's likely to win the championship. probably some obvious teams that everybody will want to discuss. why don't we start in the East and talk about the Knicks and the Sixers? the Sixers are actually have the highest price, they're the lowest odds of of any team in the East. They're trading between ten cents and eleven cents to win the NBA championship. and twenty one percent to win the conference. So are you longer short on the sixers?
Ben: Right. I don't know. I I I don't I don't I don't think the Sixers are gonna come out of the East, no.
Evan: What fuels your pessimism?
Ben: I I think like health most of all. Like I I do I do think that they can I think the personalities will be okay. it was just one game, but the fact that they let, you know, Tyrese Maxie go off was was smart. I just embiad and LeBron, I just it I don't know, it's just a little far fetched for me to see them playing sixty plus games and then let's say eighty-five percent of the playoffs. if they I will c I will say if those guys do play more or less a full season and a full playoffs, then I could see them winning the East. I still don't think they'd win the title, but I my my my pessimism about the East is is just around their health really.
Evan: Well, I see it exactly the same way. I mean, I have to say, I did see the game. They looked really good. I'm a LeBron fan. I mean, I I think LeBron really plays the right way. And I wasn't completely surprised at this, but LeBron integrated himself into that team. He was super productive in, you know, the much more limited, non ball dominant role that he was playing. I could see that starting five doing some damage. So then the bet is what's the chance that Embiid and LeBron make it through the season? And they kind of need both, I think, to really be legitimate championship contenders. My my gut says they don't have enough, even if they're healthy, to beat the Spurs or the Thunder, but they could definitely win the East. But, you know, the chance of, you know. Would you would you think that the chance of Embiid playing more than sixty games is fifty percent, and the chance of LeBron playing more than sixty games at more than fifty percent? So I think they only have like at best a one in four chance that they both play more than sixty games, and I don't think they have enough without them. But same as you. That team that played that beat the Knicks, that was a pretty good basketball team.
Ben: Yeah. And I guess, you know, they're the they're the favorites and you said it's twenty, it's twenty cents.
Evan: So like four to one odd, basically.
Ben: Yeah, that's I mean that that seems about that seems about right, I guess.
Evan: They're their co-favorites. The Knicks are also twenty-one cents right now to win the East, and have a slightly lower price to win the championship. they're at eight to nine cents. you optimistic or pessimistic about the Knicks.
Ben: I'm still in shock that they won the title.
Evan: hm.
Ben: And the and the rare metro resident that wasn't you know, I'm not really a Nick fan. I'm I'm happy for my friends that are and I see your t-shirt, so congrats. that was cr that was crazy to me. I mean, particularly the the the sp you know, the finals. you know, the East they went through was was was flawed and so similar, I mean, I I I would bet that the West wins the NBA championship, I'll tell you that much. But similar to the Sixers, like I have a really hard time seeing the Knicks repeating as champs, but winning the East again, yes, you know, a fully healthy Sixer team I think would be a little better than the Knicks, but I think the Knicks are more likely to be healthy. Obviously, they have the chemistry. they got to do it last year. So I I think I think for the East I give the Knicks a slight edge, excuse me, over the Sixers, but I I wouldn't be I wouldn't be shocked. And then, you know, not to get ahead, but I don't I I think the Celtics, I wouldn't, you know, I wouldn't count the Celtics out yet. I think the East in general will be better than better than last year, certainly top. six or seven. You know, the Pacers will be decent after they were terrible last year. The the Raptors. And I'm sure you're gonna give me numbers on these, but I'm just saying I just think it'll be a tougher path than it than it was last last season.
Evan: Well, a couple of things. One that stood out to me about the Knicks. I the Andre Drummond from Mitch Robinson drop off is significant. Mitchell Robinson was it's an incredible resource to have a guy who could come off the bench and play at that level, even if he's one of the worst free throw shooters in human history. But Drummond just didn't It didn't look to me like it you know, it's it he's he's definitely not at Robinson's level and that lowers their bench from value added to question mark, even though Shaman and McBride are great. I I was just gonna validate another thing you said though. relative odds and the NBA is basically the most formful of all leagues. I mean, you really never have a league a team winning the NBA championship that isn't a preseason favorite and doesn't hasn't built up to winning. I actually went back and looked. So over the past ten years, if you look at the odds of the teams that won, the Warriors were First, they were the favorites twice. The Raptors won Kawhi Leonard, they were fifth in the preseason odds. the Lakers won during the during COVID, they were number two in the preseason bowl. Bucks were second, Warriors again tied for third. The Nuggets are the biggest long shot there, tied for ninth in the preseason, Celtics with Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown. they were early season favorites, Thunder were number two, and even the Knicks, who I think were a relevant relative long short. They were still fourth. So like with the NBA, you're not gonna have, you know, i i it's not gonna the the Sacramento Kings are are not gonna surprise everybody and be
Ben: Correct. It's gonna it's gonna be one of it's gonna be one of th I mean, this year it might be like one of eight eight and that feels super wide open. I mean, yes, there was years where it was it was gonna be the Warriors or the Cavs, you know.
Evan: I think that's right. I actually think this is you probably have we might even go to ten teams that can win the championship, but it's not more than that. all right, so just to go through the East, ne just this will interest you, next favorite is the Heat, which is utterly implausible to me, but I don't know, maybe you see it differently.
Ben: I was I was kind of intrigued by them and then God they looked terrible last night or the or the Timberwolves looked great. I mean I just I I I love Giannis and he's still pretty unstoppable. But yeah, the rest it's a weird it's a weird fit. I might be off them already.
Evan: Yeah, I they're not I'd be surprised if they they're you know, if we do if we're
Ben: So they're right they're they're they're more expensive than the Celtics?
Evan: They are around they're basically the same price as the Celtics. But look at the Knicks for at the Knicks at eight to nine cents versus the Heat at five to six five to six cents. I mean the Knicks have way more than twice the chance of the Heat of winning the NBA championship. the Celtics are also at five to six cents. the spread is basically you pay more to buy than you get to sell. So Tatum's back, but they lost Jalen Brown. that's you you think the it's hard for me to Celtic see the Celtics getting up to winning the conference, but you know, I mean Tatum's a truly great player, so I guess I could get that.
Ben: Yeah, and I li I don't know. I like the coach they have they should be pretty hungry after kind of flaming out last year. I mean I definitely think Tatum is better than Jalen Brown for sure. So I don't Yeah.
Evan: for sure. For sure.
Ben: Yeah, well s I I don't know. They should be better than the Heat for f certainly.
Evan: And then the only other teams above a cent are the Pistons are at three cents, the Pacers are at three cents, the Raptors are at three cents. Pistons did win sixty games last year.
Ben: Yes they did.
Evan: that that one I don't know. But you very, very rarely see teams advance, you know, more than one step in in from one year to the next. So, you know, if they had
Ben: I I I do think that all three of those t teams though, like they're not gonna be e these are not cakewalk team. I mean, yeah, th those are the the the Pistons, the Raptors with Kawhi again and and I think the Pacers too after taking a year off th those will be those will be tough outs. for in in and I don't think a it's hard for me to imagine any of them winning the title, but I you know. They they could all give the Knicks or the Sixers a really tough series, I think.
Evan: that's for sure. The Pacers beat the Knicks two years ago, so that could totally happen. all right, let's talk about the West. So the Thunder and the Spurs are the obvious betting favorites. The Thunder is the overall favorite to win the title at twenty four cents. The Spurs are next at twenty two cents, and then from there you go to the Timberwolves at seven to eight cents and the Lakers at four cents. If you had a pick between the Thunder and the Spurs, who are you picking?
Ben: I'm gonna pick the Thunder. I mean, I I think that they they've they've done everything right in building that team and maybe you know, the title came quicker than expected. I I I don't know. I mean it's a great it's a great matchup with San Antonio. Obviously I love Dylan and Wemby's amazing. you know, I think those are the two best teams. I just I mean it's also stubbornness, I guess. Like I was sure the Thunder were going back to back. So I just I'm not ready to to leave that yet. There hasn't been enough departures there or injuries, or I don't think you know, relaxing. I don't I don't think they're satisfied yet. So I think issues that might arise as you gotta pay guys, or you know, they've they've achieved the success. I don't I I think they're still and this may if they win, maybe this will be the end of it, but To me, they're still on the ascendancy and I just to me that felt like a team that was getting at least two rings as soon as possible. They didn't get too straight. I I think that I think they're gonna get get back there. And that's like no shade at the at the Spurs really. I it won't the Spurs won't make it easy, but I I think the I think the Thunder should be the the favorite and I I think they're gonna do it.
Evan: I I actually completely agree with you. the Thunder Thunder to me is the best team in basketball. and you know I mean injuries obviously played a huge role in the conference final last year. I'm gonna talk about this when we get to the to the MVP market. I mean SGA to me is the best player in basketball, with Jokic very, very close. And You know, I I thought Wem I mean Wemby is obviously a historically great basketball player. but I mean it'll be interesting to see how his game evolves. He's not a great shooter, right? He's a he's a good shooter. He's a great shooter for a guy who's seven four, and he's a great hand ball handler for a guy who's seven four, but he's not a great shooter or a ball great ball handler. I need to see him evolve. into kind of a stronger, more traditional around the basket center for me to be convinced that that team is gonna win. I I I but okay, let me modify that to say could they w would I be surprised if they won the NBA championship? Of course not. You know, they c they could have beaten the Knicks. So it's not like I'm saying there's it could never happen. But I think the Thunder are are a a better constructed team. They have the best team and you know if if if Hartenstein and Holmgun are are both healthy. That's that's a lot to counter him. But
Ben: Yeah, and the Knicks I think the Knicks showed some ways to defend him that the the you know, you know, g nice job by the Knicks to maybe teach the Thunder something. You would have thought it was the other way around, but Yeah, and and he's he's Wemby's gonna get better, but maybe he's not, yeah, he's gonna have to learn some lessons. So I I I agree with you. I think I think at least for this year, again, injuries notwithstanding, you know, it seems like that's been a theme. Injuries have become like an unfortunate huge part of the NBA postseason, but if if if everyone is relatively healthy, you know, I think I just it I just think the Thunder have want another one and and have it in them to to get it.
Evan: Do you have any interest in the Lakers?
Ben: not
Evan: Hmm. Let me ask you a question. I've I've I haven't been able to discuss this, certainly not with a sports writer. did did what how did LeBron's move sit with you?
Ben: I mean I was I was pretty shocked for sure. I didn't I didn't kind of think that I I didn't know or think that playing for basically the minimum was on the table. so that was one one reason. I I mean I g I I LeBron's an amazing player. Slam has a long history with him. their new covers out, they got Him on the cover. he plays the right way. He's earned the right to do whatever whatever he wants. I I sort of thought and sort of hope. I thought he was gonna go back to Cleveland and and I thought that would have been would have been pretty neat. but this one's kind of cool too. I mean, I I Philly's a good sports town. but I was super I again, I'm not big on these betting markets, but I definitely would not have had If if someone said, if you had me on in May and you were like, Where's LeBron gonna play? I wouldn't have said anything would be better than fifty cents, but I would have said Cleveland.
Evan: Yeah, well I mean Philly was I mean, the Warriors, staying with the Lakers, Cavs were all significant favorites over it. It's to me, it's one of the strange okay, so I I'm gonna val just second everything you just said. I have no judgment this person, this human being has given so much to the game of basketball. He's a class act. plays the game the right way, he lives life the right way. I think he's earned the right to do whatever he wants. I'm just gonna say at this I just didn't really understand the decision. So first of all, I don't think he materially increased his chance of winning an NBA championship. So if he had gone back to the Lakers at, you know, for whatever the mid-level exception or the veterans minimum that he took, they would have been able to acquire Walker Kessler. And so that team, Reeves, Donczyk, Walker, Kessler, and LeBron, feels to me roughly as good as what the Sixers are. Maybe the Sixers are a bit better if and only if Embiid is healthy and playing at like an MVP level. So I thought like there was some speculative upside there to the move. But my gosh, how much would you give to play with your kid? So he, you know, he got to do this. He's clearly they'd win 50 games. It's not like they'd stink. And he gets to do it with his son. And, you know, Philly is a great sports town, but he's not living in Philly. He's living in New York and he's taking a helicopter. And
Ben: Yeah.
Evan: I can't understand from a human standpoint why he'd want to spend a winter in New York and Philadelphia taking helicopter flights, when he could have been hanging out with his kid. And I I wonder if that drove the story more than has ever been reported, that maybe actually Bronny wanted some independence or Maybe LeBron thought it was unhealthy for him to I don't know. But
Ben: I I thought I was more like sad for the d for the daughter for Zuri. I I mean
Evan: I agree, right.
Ben: the the Bronny thing is is kinda weird and maybe he maybe both parties wanted him to kind of sink or swim on his own. Did he I didn't even look did he make the was he on the roster last night? Yeah.
Evan: He made it, yeah, yeah, yeah. They cut Dalton necked connect and Bronny made it. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Ben: That's cra that's crazy. well I think Evan, I don't think, and again, he has certainly earned this right, and this is why I was so shocked that he did it with the Sixers. Playing for that money was not on the table for the Lakers. Like there was a different sort of ego polenka thing, maybe even Luca. I don't know, but he would he was not gonna do them that favor. I I think the Lakership had. Headsailed. I mean, you know, what so I he was not gonna he was not gonna go back. I don't think Cal you know, the Warriors would have still made sense kind of for the family stuff. I mean, the other thing we're hearing is like, you know, he was really he was maybe prepared to play for the Knicks for cheap until they until they won. And
Evan: Until they won, yeah.
Ben: so this is just kind of the next, you know, maybe he was always gonna live in New York this year, and the Sixers were like The next closest option. I I don't know. And the the only thing on the basketball side, I I mean, I do think his chances of winning are better just in the sense that the two he doesn't have to go through the two best teams. You know, like the the East winning a title is seems like a super long shot, but getting to the finals, I do think he has a better chance with the Sixers than he would have, even with a Walker Kessler Lakers, because they still wouldn't have beaten the Thunder or the Spurs.
Evan: he he That's right. That's certainly true. I mean it's he's gonna that's right. He had no chance of getting to the finals with the Lakers. I I agree with that. well it's a strange one. I I wanna ask you about the the preseason market for who's gonna be NVA MVP. before I tell you the prices, what would what would you estimate? So You know, the candidates are obvious. It's Wemby, S. G. A. Donc, Nikola Jokic, and Anthony Edwards gets a tiny bit of well, actually gets more than a tiny bit. Who would you have set as the favorite? And just ballpark, what would you think the fair price is?
Ben: I wonder I mean you hinted the g no the gambler's fallacy thing which had me thinking like I
Evan: Right, I didn't mean to give it away, sorry. but
Ben: I wonder if it's if Wemby is the favorite because people think like it's his turn or or something. And I mean I doubt anyone is more than twenty-five cents.
Evan: So Wemby's at 33 cents and SGA
Ben: Wow. And is he is that that's the highest price?
Evan: By far SGA's at 15 cents, Luka Donczyk is at 13 cents, Jokic is at 13 cents, and Anthony Edwards is just slightly below 13 cents.
Ben: Because they think it's his turn.
Evan: Now, all right, so I I
Ben: Yeah.
Evan: I don't know if anybody's gonna I I have a bet here and I'll I'll tell you what my rationale is. Okay, so the reason that w so what you said is is the justification. It's a perception it's the idea, because this is still humans who are voting in this market and they're gonna there's voter fatigue. That's the that's the thing you'll hear people about. Okay, I don't I don't know exactly what that means. They're tired of voting for somebody. But ten years ago, even ten years ago, and certainly like when I was growing up watching basketball. I would have thought that that was a real thing. The voting for NBA NBP is just a ranking of who has the highest wind share per 48 minutes. That's all it is. I mean, I'll take you through it. Last year, SGA wins, he's.323 win shares per 48 minutes. Jokic is second at 0.316. Wemby is third at 0.257. Donc is fourth at 0.191.
Ben: Got it, so it's no one's doing that anymore.
Evan: But it's it's just exact that's what it was, two thousand twenty-four, twenty-five. SGA was point three nine, just pipping out Jokic at point three seven. The year before that, Jokic wins, he's point two nine nine. I mean, there is actually no deviation in this chart. One through five in the NBA voting are one through five in wind share for forty eight minutes. So if that's true, then this just becomes a bet on who's going to have the greatest win share per 48 minutes. Now, Wemby has to make up, he has to go from 0.257, which is a huge number, which any team in the NBA would take, to SGA's level of.323. Now, how does Wemby do that? Well, he blocks a lot of shots. I mean, the thing is he has to get better significantly better as a shooter for him to make that up. Now he he could, it would not shock me if he reaches a point three level in his career, but I think that's hardly a certainty that's this year, as opposed
Ben: So
Evan: to SGA has done it for the past two years. And it's just what I was saying bef what you were saying before, you know, just say one more thing on the gambler's fallacy. So people think because, you know, if you ask somebody coins come up heads ten times in a row, they think it's more like to come in come up tails. But I remember the first thing I was interested in gambling was harness racing. And I read this book. And the single biggest it was, I think, beat the odds by Dr. Z. And the single biggest predictor of whether a horse would win its next race was whether it had won its last race. So I've got a guy, he's he's he's won an NBA championship, he's been to the finals. I'm sure that team is gonna be a great team, so they're not gonna be disqualified for that. And his win shares for each of the past two years were 0.323, 0.309, and by the way, 0.275 before that. He's gonna be super motivated to do well. Since they didn't win last year, I don't understand why I would bet pay twice as much for somebody that I don't think has twice as much of a chance. So SGA feels like a value to me. But
Ben: To 100 when you put it like that, I I didn't I hadn't done that research into the wind shares because I would agree. I think SGA will have higher windshar than than Wemby, at least this season. So yeah, if if voters are not doing that thing that the market is going off of, then yes, S SGA should win again.
Evan: I I've just I'll just show you though, if you I mean it's it's uncanny. So there's top five for each of the f past five years. There's not a single deviation. It's number one in the MBP voting, is number one in windshares, down to five
Ben: Yeah.
Evan: for each of the past five years. And you know, that's part of the way that money ball and metrics have really infiltrated and affected the sport, but in some ways it's a f it's a fair way to resolve it. Okay, anyway, that's my that's my one big bet. you teased that you you told me me that you had some thoughts about the rookie of the year market, so tell tell me what you think.
Ben: I just I think d I mean I I feel pretty strongly that AJ DeBansta will have the best career of any of these rookies. and he was the best high school player of them, probably the best college player in his one year. so I'm I I was just surprised. I think he's like fourth maybe.
Evan: He's he's a at the moment I'm looking as you're saying this, he's fifth. Cameron Boozer is the favorite at twenty six fan twenty-six cents and Dvansa's at fourteen cents. So that's not that's not bad.
Ben: Yeah, I mean I I I I do think he has a little sprained ankle. So if he misses a few games at the beginning, that that won't help, I guess. But it it seems more like I don't know, P because Trey Young is gonna shoot a lot, or they have Anthony Davis who's gonna get hurt anyway. He just AJ's very, very, very I just he's extremely talented and I I think motivated. I think Cameron Boozer is gonna be a great pro too. I just I he's the number one pick. Like I I'm just surprised. So I think I think he's my unless he misses, you know, 15 games to start his career, which I I haven't read anything that it would he'd be out that long. It to me there's there's value on on him. And so who's what's the next who's I knew I knew Boozer was first, who's two, three, and four
Evan: Caleb, Caleb Wilson
Ben: is two.
Evan: at 20 cents. Darren Peterson at 15 cents, and Jaxo Lendenborg at 15 cents. I I I've just
Ben: no.
Evan: val can I validate also just seconds an instinct you have there. Okay. Whereas I think who wins the NBA championship is incredibly formful. I think who wins the MVP is incredibly form formful. There is the chance that there's somebody. That we didn't discuss, who emerges and wins the NBA championship. It's a 100 to one. I mean, I love Jalen Brunson, and he's one of my favorite basketball players of all time. But he's not going to win it because he's not going to get to a number that's above like 0.23 or 0.24. Rookie of the Year is a totally different story. Draft picks are they're very, very unreliable. And if you go back, you can do this at basketball reference, which I really recommend to stats nerds. You could go back and pick a draft from ten years ago and look at win shares, you know, based on order in the draft. And, you know, w we know historically that teams miss all the time, even in the modern era of metrics. So I just wouldn't want to plunk down a ton of money on a favorite until I had actually seen them play. But
Ben: It yeah, and I and I think but it's also sometimes guys take the other thing it's particularly the it's not even about the the bet is about rookie of the year, which is very erratic and does not always I mean look at Dil look at Dylan Harper. I mean he finished behind Cooper Flag fine, but Khan Kneppel, no one would rather have Khan than Dylan Harper, you know, for their next great
Evan: It's true. Although I do love Con Kineppel. He's a great basketball player. Yeah. Yeah. No, yeah, I agree. You're not starting your team
Ben: He he is, he is, but I don't think he's I don't think he's
Evan: with him. I agree.
Ben: so you know, it's not it's not necessarily a insult to AJ's long term prospects, but yeah, that one just I d I don't know. I mean I haven't I d I haven't seen everybody play a ton. I just I think he's really good. I think he was made for the NB like I definitely think he's better than Darren Peterson, so we'll we'll see.
Evan: who d who is your team? I don't think I know.
Ben: I'm very disloyal from a team perspective when it comes. I mean, I've I'm a huge Los Angeles Dodger fan, New York Giants, New York Rangers, but NBA between player movement, being at Slam for so long, and you know, needing guys to do well because they were on the cover, how they treated us. most recently I was a Bucks fan because of my Greek wife and Giannis. and 2021 Bucks was, you know, one of my favorite teams in any sport in a long time. But that thing just dissolved so grotesquely and sadly,
Evan: Really, really did.
Ben: I fell in love with you know, my favorite like active player is Drew Holiday, which, you
Evan: Hmm.
Ben: know, I knew he was a good player before he got to Milwaukee, but I felt like he's really the guy that brought them to, you know, made them coalesce. I don't think they win the title without him. They and then as soon as they got rid of him, that was a wrap for The box being relevant.
Evan: Well, Ray the Ray the Bucks, man, I you do see a kind of consistent, persistent thread that Doc Rivers isn't super popular with the players. I I I
Ben: Ugh, yeah, very, very uninspiring coach. I mean he yeah, that just that just furthered the I mean they fired they fired Bud probably prematurely, then they traded Drew, and then they were they just never recovered. I mean, th Adrian Griffin was probably a weird they they they they shouldn't have really they fired Butenholzer so quickly after they won the title. I I mean So I but I'm not gonna become like a he you know, we're not such Giannis loyalists that we're necessarily gonna become Heat fans. I just I I was intrigued by them because I know he's still a great player, but he can't he already proved in Milwaukee he can't do it by himself. So I don't know why
Evan: Yeah.
Ben: I thought he could do it in Miami.
Evan: Well, they have a they have a shadow of Clay Thompson there to help him out. I
Ben: Please. Yeah.
Evan: well I am still loyal. It's one of my few remaining sports allegiances. I mean, I was a Nick fan Jesus, I've been a Nick fan for more than fifty years. I hate Dolan so much though. It's so hard. But the players, they're super likable and You know, I mean just seeing Jalen Brunson share that with his father and his college teammates, it's it's very moving.
Ben: No, it was a it was a neat it was a neat story. I was I was jealous at times, but I I was a my favorite player all time is Mark Jackson and he got you know he he's had a lot of ups and downs with them and and you know sort of out of loyalty to him I s I stopped liking them and then again had the had the Bucks run, had a I certainly was rooting for the Cavs when LeBron was there. I've been like I said, it's the only sport I'm like that. I but I'm not I have not I do not live and die with any any NBA franchise.
Evan: Well, I think it's hard to be an adult these days and have any loyalty to professional sports franchises because they don't have any loyalty to anybody.
Ben: A absolutely true.
Evan: Well, Ben, thank you so much. how about we do it again come playoff time?
Ben: That would be that would be great. I I'd love to f you know, see how we see how we did and then yeah, make some new new picks.
Evan: And one journalist to another. I'm telling you, there's a story there about LeBron. There's something else going on. Maybe he'll tell us in ten years, but go sniff that out and I think you get that one in the Atlantic instead of in Slam. So All right. Thanks, Ben.
Ben: I like it. Yeah.
Ben: Hey Evan, happy to be here.
Evan: first of all, I have to say, the last conversation I had on this podcast was about Vivek Ramaswamy's ad about Amy Acton. So we're normally discussing these incredibly depressing existential crises that we're trying to translate into betting propositions. It is such a relief to be here and be able to talk basketball. And I'm so grateful to you for giving me a distraction from the real world. So thank you, first of all.
Ben: Yeah, yeah. No, my my pleasure. Yeah, my career has been like one big like chasing of distractions, for better or worse.
Evan: Yeah. I think that's a smart way to to choose your career. So as I mentioned in the intro, you just had a cover story in Slam, which I really, really enjoyed about Dylan Harper. And I have a couple of things I wanted to ask you about. One thing that I noted you said in the article you had a chance to interview Ron Sr. Is that did I get that correct?
Ben: Yeah, I mean that was that was like the neatest thing about it. especially because that piece c I I've been involved with Slam for, you know, almost 30 years in some fashion or another, but I haven't worked there full time since 2016. And I've had jobs where I can't write for them. and I just lost slash left my most recent full-time job at the end of July. And they're always kind of the first people I tell because I know that they'll give me work because that's my family and we have a lot of history. And I don't know they the editor called me maybe like three days before and then I only had maybe th like three days to turn in the story after the fact. So generally I would like to kind of get multiple secondary Sources into a a cover story and interview, a number of people, but there really was no time for that. at least I got Dylan in person and he was he was awesome. We hung out at the slam office. But as I told the editor, I was like, Well, I have a head start. I don't need to call Ron because I have this great story about him, which if it's okay with you, I'm to talk about in
Evan: Yeah.
Ben: my piece. And I mean, I had covered Ron. I'm old enough to have been credentialed at games he played in as a bull and definitely as a Laker. Not that he would have really known me, but I I certainly covered Ron Harper. And going back before that as a kid, he was just a cool player. So I I had history with Ron Harper, who was a, you know, extremely athletic, exciting player for Miami of Ohio, and then the Cavs. And then he tore his ACL. when it was tough to come back from that and kind of reimagined himself. I'm sure you know this, but you know, reimagined himself as a role player, defender, winner, and, you know, won six rings with the Bulls and the Lakers. really amazing career he put together. Anyhow
Evan: He was he he was a great player from my standpoint. He was a a consummate team player. I I mean kind of one of those guys that always made the right play, like a glue guy you'd always have want to have on your team, and a great defensive player, which is interesting. I don't really remember him very well as the pre athletic the pre a tear of the ACL
Ben: He that
Evan: super athletic guy. yeah.
Ben: That's why it's so neat that he reinvented like he he wasn't like that. He was he was a a Jordan Light kind of. He was
Evan: He was a leaper, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Ben: really he was really like in that same that same vein. And then he, you know, obviously he had the smarts, but yeah, he just he committed himself to playing that way. And he was also like, you know, a Jordan Light on the sneaker. Side where he always had nice kicks. He didn't have you know an Air Jordan. He wore Air Jordans, but he he was always in the Nike stable. And there was a store in Brooklyn called Jordan Heads. And I knew the guy, Slam, if people don't know, is way into sneakers, also wouldn't have survived this long without support of Nike and Adidas and just really readers that care about that stuff. So, in any event, this store. was doing like a speaker series. They had some connection to Ron, who lives in North Jersey. And they wanted me to host it. And it was gonna it was mostly to talk about, you know, all the great shoes he wore in his career, but his career and it it was like February of twenty eighteen. I know this 'cause I relooked at it for the Dylan story. And was at a hotel in Brooklyn. It was really neat. Like, you know, I don't know, probably spoke to him for an hour hundred people there, some i it wasn't I don't think, you know, it wasn't the whole thing maybe never aired, but there was lots of clips on social media. And at that point, there was Ron Harper Junior who was at Don Bosco, who I guess was a senior in high school. And I'd heard of him 'cause I f you know, live in Jersey and and followed
Evan: Yeah.
Ben: hoops. And You know, he was like committed to Rutgers, not really no one really thought he'd be a pro. I I wanna say he was a two or three star recruit. not a crazy athlete, just a smart role kind of like post, you know, kind of his dad end of career style player. And so during the interview on stage, I I'm like, Yeah, so I I hear you have a a son who's pretty good. And he's like, Yeah, yeah, Ron Jr., you know, like He he's pretty good. He's gonna make the league. And even that, I'm like, he's so cocky, like you know, like Ron no no one's saying that Ron Harper Jr. is gonna make the NBA. He didn't say he'd be a star, but he just was like very matter of fact. He's like, Yeah, yeah, he's gonna make the league. And he's like, But my other son, he's gonna be a superstar. NBA superstar. I'm like, Okay, you know? And it Dylan Harper was eleven and and so anyway, yeah, so then I get to meet Dylan in late August and and I I've got to turn this story around quick. And again, you know, the mom's like a really interesting figure too, but I didn't there was no time for proper secondaries other than I I call this guy I know a a Montclair grad, actually, Justin Delaney, who runs NJ Hoop Recruit, because I wanted to talk about Dylan's kind of New Jersey bona fides. But the the the main kind of piece to the story other than all of Dylan's good quotes was that, you know, his his father had predicted all of this and it was just really, really wild that
Evan: Who
Ben: that that had happened.
Evan: I I obviously knew that Dylan Harper went to Rutgers. What's their connection to New Jersey? And is it because his wife coaches at Don Bosco? Is that why they ended up moving to Jersey?
Ben: Yeah, the mo the mom's family immigrated from the Philippines and landed in Patterson. she played at University of New Orleans, but like was recruited from New Jersey. I don't know why I mean Ron is from Ohio, I think. I don't I don't know what Ron was doing here or he met her while he was playing. and then they just settled here. Her I the other thing I did in preview, Slam did like a five video series on Dylan leading into the draft. And and they the the grandparents still live like in Ramsey or or whatever, and Dylan goes over and eats Filipino food with them. So they were like the the two brothers were very much raised, you know, in Ramsey or or North Jersey. And then the mom talks about the mom is like very Catholic. And I forget the I forget what type of brothers it is at Don Bosco, but it like she really wanted them to have that specific education. And I was looking in preparation for this. Like no, I mean they have a great football program. Dylan and Ron are the best basketball players to ever go there. I mean that's not a They weren't at a basketball factory, you know, and and that she was very adamant about that. You know, they were there for the the education, I guess to some degree, the Catholic education, and then certainly, you know, quality New Jersey private school basketball. But, you know, in this day and age it's almost quaint relative to where a lot of guys end up playing. So
Evan: I didn't know. It's they're Salesians. it's a s yeah.
Ben: Silesians, thank you.
Evan: Hmm. I I didn't I just I had to look that one up. Now before we move on, Ron O Ron Harper always seemed like a class act to me. And Dylan seems like a class act to me and has a lot of he's more athletic than I remember his father in his Bulls and Lakers career, but super smart player, like really in the Spurs are great organization and great team, and I thought he really played beautifully during the the final. last year. So am I right? Are they were they were they cool people and did you have the vibe that he was a chip off the block?
Ben: absolutely. No. Yeah, I mean R Ron Ron has always been, yeah, a good a good quote and a and a classy guy. And yeah, Dylan was just unbelievably mature. And I mean you could see that in his interviews during the finals, and then just to sit with him. yeah, I mean, he's just been around it, and I think that he picked up what it means to be a pro. And again, to have a mom that played college and has coached as well, like they they really live it, but in a in a very mature in a very mature way. So yeah, you know, t two thumbs up on the on the personality and and the way it translates to to play at the highest. Yeah, I mean you basically played the best of the season in the NBA finals on the on the biggest stage. really, really impressive.
Evan: Well, you did a you you did a really nice job in the story, even if you had a limited amount of time of showing his integration into the Spurs family, and you have Mono Ginobli and Tim Duncan and And Popovich are like peripheral characters walking around the facility while he's training and it it just s my gosh, it just just seems like an organization that's always done it right and I I'm I'm sure they psychologically profile the people that they're drafting 'cause they consistently draft people who are really high character and high basketball intelligence. So
Ben: Ab absolutely no. It's a great it's a great match.
Evan: Well, what a cool opportunity for you. All right. So, Ben, the ca the the way we do things here is we reduce everything, no matter how existentially troublesome or whatever into a betting proposition. We relate it to a Calchi market. so I'm gonna corrupt your expertise into thinking through some of these markets at the start of the season and maybe we'll revisit them when the playoffs come around. So let's talk a little bit about the market for who's likely to win the championship. probably some obvious teams that everybody will want to discuss. why don't we start in the East and talk about the Knicks and the Sixers? the Sixers are actually have the highest price, they're the lowest odds of of any team in the East. They're trading between ten cents and eleven cents to win the NBA championship. and twenty one percent to win the conference. So are you longer short on the sixers?
Ben: Right. I don't know. I I I don't I don't I don't think the Sixers are gonna come out of the East, no.
Evan: What fuels your pessimism?
Ben: I I think like health most of all. Like I I do I do think that they can I think the personalities will be okay. it was just one game, but the fact that they let, you know, Tyrese Maxie go off was was smart. I just embiad and LeBron, I just it I don't know, it's just a little far fetched for me to see them playing sixty plus games and then let's say eighty-five percent of the playoffs. if they I will c I will say if those guys do play more or less a full season and a full playoffs, then I could see them winning the East. I still don't think they'd win the title, but I my my my pessimism about the East is is just around their health really.
Evan: Well, I see it exactly the same way. I mean, I have to say, I did see the game. They looked really good. I'm a LeBron fan. I mean, I I think LeBron really plays the right way. And I wasn't completely surprised at this, but LeBron integrated himself into that team. He was super productive in, you know, the much more limited, non ball dominant role that he was playing. I could see that starting five doing some damage. So then the bet is what's the chance that Embiid and LeBron make it through the season? And they kind of need both, I think, to really be legitimate championship contenders. My my gut says they don't have enough, even if they're healthy, to beat the Spurs or the Thunder, but they could definitely win the East. But, you know, the chance of, you know. Would you would you think that the chance of Embiid playing more than sixty games is fifty percent, and the chance of LeBron playing more than sixty games at more than fifty percent? So I think they only have like at best a one in four chance that they both play more than sixty games, and I don't think they have enough without them. But same as you. That team that played that beat the Knicks, that was a pretty good basketball team.
Ben: Yeah. And I guess, you know, they're the they're the favorites and you said it's twenty, it's twenty cents.
Evan: So like four to one odd, basically.
Ben: Yeah, that's I mean that that seems about that seems about right, I guess.
Evan: They're their co-favorites. The Knicks are also twenty-one cents right now to win the East, and have a slightly lower price to win the championship. they're at eight to nine cents. you optimistic or pessimistic about the Knicks.
Ben: I'm still in shock that they won the title.
Evan: hm.
Ben: And the and the rare metro resident that wasn't you know, I'm not really a Nick fan. I'm I'm happy for my friends that are and I see your t-shirt, so congrats. that was cr that was crazy to me. I mean, particularly the the the sp you know, the finals. you know, the East they went through was was was flawed and so similar, I mean, I I I would bet that the West wins the NBA championship, I'll tell you that much. But similar to the Sixers, like I have a really hard time seeing the Knicks repeating as champs, but winning the East again, yes, you know, a fully healthy Sixer team I think would be a little better than the Knicks, but I think the Knicks are more likely to be healthy. Obviously, they have the chemistry. they got to do it last year. So I I think I think for the East I give the Knicks a slight edge, excuse me, over the Sixers, but I I wouldn't be I wouldn't be shocked. And then, you know, not to get ahead, but I don't I I think the Celtics, I wouldn't, you know, I wouldn't count the Celtics out yet. I think the East in general will be better than better than last year, certainly top. six or seven. You know, the Pacers will be decent after they were terrible last year. The the Raptors. And I'm sure you're gonna give me numbers on these, but I'm just saying I just think it'll be a tougher path than it than it was last last season.
Evan: Well, a couple of things. One that stood out to me about the Knicks. I the Andre Drummond from Mitch Robinson drop off is significant. Mitchell Robinson was it's an incredible resource to have a guy who could come off the bench and play at that level, even if he's one of the worst free throw shooters in human history. But Drummond just didn't It didn't look to me like it you know, it's it he's he's definitely not at Robinson's level and that lowers their bench from value added to question mark, even though Shaman and McBride are great. I I was just gonna validate another thing you said though. relative odds and the NBA is basically the most formful of all leagues. I mean, you really never have a league a team winning the NBA championship that isn't a preseason favorite and doesn't hasn't built up to winning. I actually went back and looked. So over the past ten years, if you look at the odds of the teams that won, the Warriors were First, they were the favorites twice. The Raptors won Kawhi Leonard, they were fifth in the preseason odds. the Lakers won during the during COVID, they were number two in the preseason bowl. Bucks were second, Warriors again tied for third. The Nuggets are the biggest long shot there, tied for ninth in the preseason, Celtics with Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown. they were early season favorites, Thunder were number two, and even the Knicks, who I think were a relevant relative long short. They were still fourth. So like with the NBA, you're not gonna have, you know, i i it's not gonna the the Sacramento Kings are are not gonna surprise everybody and be
Ben: Correct. It's gonna it's gonna be one of it's gonna be one of th I mean, this year it might be like one of eight eight and that feels super wide open. I mean, yes, there was years where it was it was gonna be the Warriors or the Cavs, you know.
Evan: I think that's right. I actually think this is you probably have we might even go to ten teams that can win the championship, but it's not more than that. all right, so just to go through the East, ne just this will interest you, next favorite is the Heat, which is utterly implausible to me, but I don't know, maybe you see it differently.
Ben: I was I was kind of intrigued by them and then God they looked terrible last night or the or the Timberwolves looked great. I mean I just I I I love Giannis and he's still pretty unstoppable. But yeah, the rest it's a weird it's a weird fit. I might be off them already.
Evan: Yeah, I they're not I'd be surprised if they they're you know, if we do if we're
Ben: So they're right they're they're they're more expensive than the Celtics?
Evan: They are around they're basically the same price as the Celtics. But look at the Knicks for at the Knicks at eight to nine cents versus the Heat at five to six five to six cents. I mean the Knicks have way more than twice the chance of the Heat of winning the NBA championship. the Celtics are also at five to six cents. the spread is basically you pay more to buy than you get to sell. So Tatum's back, but they lost Jalen Brown. that's you you think the it's hard for me to Celtic see the Celtics getting up to winning the conference, but you know, I mean Tatum's a truly great player, so I guess I could get that.
Ben: Yeah, and I li I don't know. I like the coach they have they should be pretty hungry after kind of flaming out last year. I mean I definitely think Tatum is better than Jalen Brown for sure. So I don't Yeah.
Evan: for sure. For sure.
Ben: Yeah, well s I I don't know. They should be better than the Heat for f certainly.
Evan: And then the only other teams above a cent are the Pistons are at three cents, the Pacers are at three cents, the Raptors are at three cents. Pistons did win sixty games last year.
Ben: Yes they did.
Evan: that that one I don't know. But you very, very rarely see teams advance, you know, more than one step in in from one year to the next. So, you know, if they had
Ben: I I I do think that all three of those t teams though, like they're not gonna be e these are not cakewalk team. I mean, yeah, th those are the the the Pistons, the Raptors with Kawhi again and and I think the Pacers too after taking a year off th those will be those will be tough outs. for in in and I don't think a it's hard for me to imagine any of them winning the title, but I you know. They they could all give the Knicks or the Sixers a really tough series, I think.
Evan: that's for sure. The Pacers beat the Knicks two years ago, so that could totally happen. all right, let's talk about the West. So the Thunder and the Spurs are the obvious betting favorites. The Thunder is the overall favorite to win the title at twenty four cents. The Spurs are next at twenty two cents, and then from there you go to the Timberwolves at seven to eight cents and the Lakers at four cents. If you had a pick between the Thunder and the Spurs, who are you picking?
Ben: I'm gonna pick the Thunder. I mean, I I think that they they've they've done everything right in building that team and maybe you know, the title came quicker than expected. I I I don't know. I mean it's a great it's a great matchup with San Antonio. Obviously I love Dylan and Wemby's amazing. you know, I think those are the two best teams. I just I mean it's also stubbornness, I guess. Like I was sure the Thunder were going back to back. So I just I'm not ready to to leave that yet. There hasn't been enough departures there or injuries, or I don't think you know, relaxing. I don't I don't think they're satisfied yet. So I think issues that might arise as you gotta pay guys, or you know, they've they've achieved the success. I don't I I think they're still and this may if they win, maybe this will be the end of it, but To me, they're still on the ascendancy and I just to me that felt like a team that was getting at least two rings as soon as possible. They didn't get too straight. I I think that I think they're gonna get get back there. And that's like no shade at the at the Spurs really. I it won't the Spurs won't make it easy, but I I think the I think the Thunder should be the the favorite and I I think they're gonna do it.
Evan: I I actually completely agree with you. the Thunder Thunder to me is the best team in basketball. and you know I mean injuries obviously played a huge role in the conference final last year. I'm gonna talk about this when we get to the to the MVP market. I mean SGA to me is the best player in basketball, with Jokic very, very close. And You know, I I thought Wem I mean Wemby is obviously a historically great basketball player. but I mean it'll be interesting to see how his game evolves. He's not a great shooter, right? He's a he's a good shooter. He's a great shooter for a guy who's seven four, and he's a great hand ball handler for a guy who's seven four, but he's not a great shooter or a ball great ball handler. I need to see him evolve. into kind of a stronger, more traditional around the basket center for me to be convinced that that team is gonna win. I I I but okay, let me modify that to say could they w would I be surprised if they won the NBA championship? Of course not. You know, they c they could have beaten the Knicks. So it's not like I'm saying there's it could never happen. But I think the Thunder are are a a better constructed team. They have the best team and you know if if if Hartenstein and Holmgun are are both healthy. That's that's a lot to counter him. But
Ben: Yeah, and the Knicks I think the Knicks showed some ways to defend him that the the you know, you know, g nice job by the Knicks to maybe teach the Thunder something. You would have thought it was the other way around, but Yeah, and and he's he's Wemby's gonna get better, but maybe he's not, yeah, he's gonna have to learn some lessons. So I I I agree with you. I think I think at least for this year, again, injuries notwithstanding, you know, it seems like that's been a theme. Injuries have become like an unfortunate huge part of the NBA postseason, but if if if everyone is relatively healthy, you know, I think I just it I just think the Thunder have want another one and and have it in them to to get it.
Evan: Do you have any interest in the Lakers?
Ben: not
Evan: Hmm. Let me ask you a question. I've I've I haven't been able to discuss this, certainly not with a sports writer. did did what how did LeBron's move sit with you?
Ben: I mean I was I was pretty shocked for sure. I didn't I didn't kind of think that I I didn't know or think that playing for basically the minimum was on the table. so that was one one reason. I I mean I g I I LeBron's an amazing player. Slam has a long history with him. their new covers out, they got Him on the cover. he plays the right way. He's earned the right to do whatever whatever he wants. I I sort of thought and sort of hope. I thought he was gonna go back to Cleveland and and I thought that would have been would have been pretty neat. but this one's kind of cool too. I mean, I I Philly's a good sports town. but I was super I again, I'm not big on these betting markets, but I definitely would not have had If if someone said, if you had me on in May and you were like, Where's LeBron gonna play? I wouldn't have said anything would be better than fifty cents, but I would have said Cleveland.
Evan: Yeah, well I mean Philly was I mean, the Warriors, staying with the Lakers, Cavs were all significant favorites over it. It's to me, it's one of the strange okay, so I I'm gonna val just second everything you just said. I have no judgment this person, this human being has given so much to the game of basketball. He's a class act. plays the game the right way, he lives life the right way. I think he's earned the right to do whatever he wants. I'm just gonna say at this I just didn't really understand the decision. So first of all, I don't think he materially increased his chance of winning an NBA championship. So if he had gone back to the Lakers at, you know, for whatever the mid-level exception or the veterans minimum that he took, they would have been able to acquire Walker Kessler. And so that team, Reeves, Donczyk, Walker, Kessler, and LeBron, feels to me roughly as good as what the Sixers are. Maybe the Sixers are a bit better if and only if Embiid is healthy and playing at like an MVP level. So I thought like there was some speculative upside there to the move. But my gosh, how much would you give to play with your kid? So he, you know, he got to do this. He's clearly they'd win 50 games. It's not like they'd stink. And he gets to do it with his son. And, you know, Philly is a great sports town, but he's not living in Philly. He's living in New York and he's taking a helicopter. And
Ben: Yeah.
Evan: I can't understand from a human standpoint why he'd want to spend a winter in New York and Philadelphia taking helicopter flights, when he could have been hanging out with his kid. And I I wonder if that drove the story more than has ever been reported, that maybe actually Bronny wanted some independence or Maybe LeBron thought it was unhealthy for him to I don't know. But
Ben: I I thought I was more like sad for the d for the daughter for Zuri. I I mean
Evan: I agree, right.
Ben: the the Bronny thing is is kinda weird and maybe he maybe both parties wanted him to kind of sink or swim on his own. Did he I didn't even look did he make the was he on the roster last night? Yeah.
Evan: He made it, yeah, yeah, yeah. They cut Dalton necked connect and Bronny made it. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Ben: That's cra that's crazy. well I think Evan, I don't think, and again, he has certainly earned this right, and this is why I was so shocked that he did it with the Sixers. Playing for that money was not on the table for the Lakers. Like there was a different sort of ego polenka thing, maybe even Luca. I don't know, but he would he was not gonna do them that favor. I I think the Lakership had. Headsailed. I mean, you know, what so I he was not gonna he was not gonna go back. I don't think Cal you know, the Warriors would have still made sense kind of for the family stuff. I mean, the other thing we're hearing is like, you know, he was really he was maybe prepared to play for the Knicks for cheap until they until they won. And
Evan: Until they won, yeah.
Ben: so this is just kind of the next, you know, maybe he was always gonna live in New York this year, and the Sixers were like The next closest option. I I don't know. And the the only thing on the basketball side, I I mean, I do think his chances of winning are better just in the sense that the two he doesn't have to go through the two best teams. You know, like the the East winning a title is seems like a super long shot, but getting to the finals, I do think he has a better chance with the Sixers than he would have, even with a Walker Kessler Lakers, because they still wouldn't have beaten the Thunder or the Spurs.
Evan: he he That's right. That's certainly true. I mean it's he's gonna that's right. He had no chance of getting to the finals with the Lakers. I I agree with that. well it's a strange one. I I wanna ask you about the the preseason market for who's gonna be NVA MVP. before I tell you the prices, what would what would you estimate? So You know, the candidates are obvious. It's Wemby, S. G. A. Donc, Nikola Jokic, and Anthony Edwards gets a tiny bit of well, actually gets more than a tiny bit. Who would you have set as the favorite? And just ballpark, what would you think the fair price is?
Ben: I wonder I mean you hinted the g no the gambler's fallacy thing which had me thinking like I
Evan: Right, I didn't mean to give it away, sorry. but
Ben: I wonder if it's if Wemby is the favorite because people think like it's his turn or or something. And I mean I doubt anyone is more than twenty-five cents.
Evan: So Wemby's at 33 cents and SGA
Ben: Wow. And is he is that that's the highest price?
Evan: By far SGA's at 15 cents, Luka Donczyk is at 13 cents, Jokic is at 13 cents, and Anthony Edwards is just slightly below 13 cents.
Ben: Because they think it's his turn.
Evan: Now, all right, so I I
Ben: Yeah.
Evan: I don't know if anybody's gonna I I have a bet here and I'll I'll tell you what my rationale is. Okay, so the reason that w so what you said is is the justification. It's a perception it's the idea, because this is still humans who are voting in this market and they're gonna there's voter fatigue. That's the that's the thing you'll hear people about. Okay, I don't I don't know exactly what that means. They're tired of voting for somebody. But ten years ago, even ten years ago, and certainly like when I was growing up watching basketball. I would have thought that that was a real thing. The voting for NBA NBP is just a ranking of who has the highest wind share per 48 minutes. That's all it is. I mean, I'll take you through it. Last year, SGA wins, he's.323 win shares per 48 minutes. Jokic is second at 0.316. Wemby is third at 0.257. Donc is fourth at 0.191.
Ben: Got it, so it's no one's doing that anymore.
Evan: But it's it's just exact that's what it was, two thousand twenty-four, twenty-five. SGA was point three nine, just pipping out Jokic at point three seven. The year before that, Jokic wins, he's point two nine nine. I mean, there is actually no deviation in this chart. One through five in the NBA voting are one through five in wind share for forty eight minutes. So if that's true, then this just becomes a bet on who's going to have the greatest win share per 48 minutes. Now, Wemby has to make up, he has to go from 0.257, which is a huge number, which any team in the NBA would take, to SGA's level of.323. Now, how does Wemby do that? Well, he blocks a lot of shots. I mean, the thing is he has to get better significantly better as a shooter for him to make that up. Now he he could, it would not shock me if he reaches a point three level in his career, but I think that's hardly a certainty that's this year, as opposed
Ben: So
Evan: to SGA has done it for the past two years. And it's just what I was saying bef what you were saying before, you know, just say one more thing on the gambler's fallacy. So people think because, you know, if you ask somebody coins come up heads ten times in a row, they think it's more like to come in come up tails. But I remember the first thing I was interested in gambling was harness racing. And I read this book. And the single biggest it was, I think, beat the odds by Dr. Z. And the single biggest predictor of whether a horse would win its next race was whether it had won its last race. So I've got a guy, he's he's he's won an NBA championship, he's been to the finals. I'm sure that team is gonna be a great team, so they're not gonna be disqualified for that. And his win shares for each of the past two years were 0.323, 0.309, and by the way, 0.275 before that. He's gonna be super motivated to do well. Since they didn't win last year, I don't understand why I would bet pay twice as much for somebody that I don't think has twice as much of a chance. So SGA feels like a value to me. But
Ben: To 100 when you put it like that, I I didn't I hadn't done that research into the wind shares because I would agree. I think SGA will have higher windshar than than Wemby, at least this season. So yeah, if if voters are not doing that thing that the market is going off of, then yes, S SGA should win again.
Evan: I I've just I'll just show you though, if you I mean it's it's uncanny. So there's top five for each of the f past five years. There's not a single deviation. It's number one in the MBP voting, is number one in windshares, down to five
Ben: Yeah.
Evan: for each of the past five years. And you know, that's part of the way that money ball and metrics have really infiltrated and affected the sport, but in some ways it's a f it's a fair way to resolve it. Okay, anyway, that's my that's my one big bet. you teased that you you told me me that you had some thoughts about the rookie of the year market, so tell tell me what you think.
Ben: I just I think d I mean I I feel pretty strongly that AJ DeBansta will have the best career of any of these rookies. and he was the best high school player of them, probably the best college player in his one year. so I'm I I was just surprised. I think he's like fourth maybe.
Evan: He's he's a at the moment I'm looking as you're saying this, he's fifth. Cameron Boozer is the favorite at twenty six fan twenty-six cents and Dvansa's at fourteen cents. So that's not that's not bad.
Ben: Yeah, I mean I I I I do think he has a little sprained ankle. So if he misses a few games at the beginning, that that won't help, I guess. But it it seems more like I don't know, P because Trey Young is gonna shoot a lot, or they have Anthony Davis who's gonna get hurt anyway. He just AJ's very, very, very I just he's extremely talented and I I think motivated. I think Cameron Boozer is gonna be a great pro too. I just I he's the number one pick. Like I I'm just surprised. So I think I think he's my unless he misses, you know, 15 games to start his career, which I I haven't read anything that it would he'd be out that long. It to me there's there's value on on him. And so who's what's the next who's I knew I knew Boozer was first, who's two, three, and four
Evan: Caleb, Caleb Wilson
Ben: is two.
Evan: at 20 cents. Darren Peterson at 15 cents, and Jaxo Lendenborg at 15 cents. I I I've just
Ben: no.
Evan: val can I validate also just seconds an instinct you have there. Okay. Whereas I think who wins the NBA championship is incredibly formful. I think who wins the MVP is incredibly form formful. There is the chance that there's somebody. That we didn't discuss, who emerges and wins the NBA championship. It's a 100 to one. I mean, I love Jalen Brunson, and he's one of my favorite basketball players of all time. But he's not going to win it because he's not going to get to a number that's above like 0.23 or 0.24. Rookie of the Year is a totally different story. Draft picks are they're very, very unreliable. And if you go back, you can do this at basketball reference, which I really recommend to stats nerds. You could go back and pick a draft from ten years ago and look at win shares, you know, based on order in the draft. And, you know, w we know historically that teams miss all the time, even in the modern era of metrics. So I just wouldn't want to plunk down a ton of money on a favorite until I had actually seen them play. But
Ben: It yeah, and I and I think but it's also sometimes guys take the other thing it's particularly the it's not even about the the bet is about rookie of the year, which is very erratic and does not always I mean look at Dil look at Dylan Harper. I mean he finished behind Cooper Flag fine, but Khan Kneppel, no one would rather have Khan than Dylan Harper, you know, for their next great
Evan: It's true. Although I do love Con Kineppel. He's a great basketball player. Yeah. Yeah. No, yeah, I agree. You're not starting your team
Ben: He he is, he is, but I don't think he's I don't think he's
Evan: with him. I agree.
Ben: so you know, it's not it's not necessarily a insult to AJ's long term prospects, but yeah, that one just I d I don't know. I mean I haven't I d I haven't seen everybody play a ton. I just I think he's really good. I think he was made for the NB like I definitely think he's better than Darren Peterson, so we'll we'll see.
Evan: who d who is your team? I don't think I know.
Ben: I'm very disloyal from a team perspective when it comes. I mean, I've I'm a huge Los Angeles Dodger fan, New York Giants, New York Rangers, but NBA between player movement, being at Slam for so long, and you know, needing guys to do well because they were on the cover, how they treated us. most recently I was a Bucks fan because of my Greek wife and Giannis. and 2021 Bucks was, you know, one of my favorite teams in any sport in a long time. But that thing just dissolved so grotesquely and sadly,
Evan: Really, really did.
Ben: I fell in love with you know, my favorite like active player is Drew Holiday, which, you
Evan: Hmm.
Ben: know, I knew he was a good player before he got to Milwaukee, but I felt like he's really the guy that brought them to, you know, made them coalesce. I don't think they win the title without him. They and then as soon as they got rid of him, that was a wrap for The box being relevant.
Evan: Well, Ray the Ray the Bucks, man, I you do see a kind of consistent, persistent thread that Doc Rivers isn't super popular with the players. I I I
Ben: Ugh, yeah, very, very uninspiring coach. I mean he yeah, that just that just furthered the I mean they fired they fired Bud probably prematurely, then they traded Drew, and then they were they just never recovered. I mean, th Adrian Griffin was probably a weird they they they they shouldn't have really they fired Butenholzer so quickly after they won the title. I I mean So I but I'm not gonna become like a he you know, we're not such Giannis loyalists that we're necessarily gonna become Heat fans. I just I I was intrigued by them because I know he's still a great player, but he can't he already proved in Milwaukee he can't do it by himself. So I don't know why
Evan: Yeah.
Ben: I thought he could do it in Miami.
Evan: Well, they have a they have a shadow of Clay Thompson there to help him out. I
Ben: Please. Yeah.
Evan: well I am still loyal. It's one of my few remaining sports allegiances. I mean, I was a Nick fan Jesus, I've been a Nick fan for more than fifty years. I hate Dolan so much though. It's so hard. But the players, they're super likable and You know, I mean just seeing Jalen Brunson share that with his father and his college teammates, it's it's very moving.
Ben: No, it was a it was a neat it was a neat story. I was I was jealous at times, but I I was a my favorite player all time is Mark Jackson and he got you know he he's had a lot of ups and downs with them and and you know sort of out of loyalty to him I s I stopped liking them and then again had the had the Bucks run, had a I certainly was rooting for the Cavs when LeBron was there. I've been like I said, it's the only sport I'm like that. I but I'm not I have not I do not live and die with any any NBA franchise.
Evan: Well, I think it's hard to be an adult these days and have any loyalty to professional sports franchises because they don't have any loyalty to anybody.
Ben: A absolutely true.
Evan: Well, Ben, thank you so much. how about we do it again come playoff time?
Ben: That would be that would be great. I I'd love to f you know, see how we see how we did and then yeah, make some new new picks.
Evan: And one journalist to another. I'm telling you, there's a story there about LeBron. There's something else going on. Maybe he'll tell us in ten years, but go sniff that out and I think you get that one in the Atlantic instead of in Slam. So All right. Thanks, Ben.
Ben: I like it. Yeah.
