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Steve Sosnick on the ratchet effect in equities, the AI bandwidth parallel, Kevin Warsh’s impossible first week, and why crypto is the unsexy trade right now.
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Equities are near all-time highs, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge just hit a multi-year peak, Iran ceasefire talks are producing a familiar ratchet effect in markets, and Bitcoin is quietly underperforming tech stocks on a nine-month volatility low. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, joins Steve Ehrlich to map what’s actually driving these unique market dynamics. They cover the two vulnerabilities that could change things, the uncomfortable parallel between today’s AI capex and the 1999 bandwidth buildout, what $120 billion in money market inflows says about where retail cash is actually sitting, the challenge Kevin Warsh faces walking into an already-skeptical FOMC, and why crypto is currently losing the competition for momentum-chasing money to AI stocks, upcoming IPOs, and even a memory chip ETF.
Host:
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Steve Ehrlich, Head of Research at SharpLink and Host of Bits + Bips: The Interview - https://x.com/Steven_Ehrlich
Guest:
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Steve Sosnick — Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers
Timestamps 📈 02:06 Stocks at records: the ratchet effect Iran just handed the bulls 💻 08:43 The AI-bandwidth parallel: who are the next Global Crossing and Lucent 🚀 14:00 SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic on deck: top signal or just supply 📉 18:39 Hottest PCE in three years: the inflation problem nobody wants to own 🏛️ 26:50 Kevin Warsh's first week: hawkish past, dovish pressure, unconvinced FOMC ₿ 34:11 Bitcoin at $73K, vol at a 9-month low: the trade nobody wants to take 👥 40:17 "Normies own crypto now": the ETF tourist problem 🔭 45:39 What Sosnick is watching: the tell that will tip the next move
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