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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to look at markets and what history says comes next. Plus, US Dollar loss of purchasing power illustrates the need to be invested. What about the inverted yield curve (10-year minus 3-month) leading to a recession? Is it too far gone or still a chance? BofA Global Investment Strategy says Treasuries just posted their worst 10-year rolling returns in 100 years. Charles Schwab data shows Energy up 40% and Tech up 29% year-to-date as of October 1, while Utilities and Consumer Discretionary lag. Are we entering the best part of the presidential cycle? Carson Investment Research says Q4 of the midterm year and Q1 of the pre-election year have historically been among the strongest quarters. Plus, Goldman Sachs on the S&P 500 forward P/E falling back to its 10-year average showing equities are cheaper? Finally, looking at the road up and back on $NKE Nike shares where the chart almost looks like a bubble that has burst. All this and more this week.
Charlie Bilello: S&P 500 real total return of 863.7% over the last 30 years
US consumer dollar purchasing power down 52.99% over the same period
Bilello: Inverted yield curve (10-year minus 3-month) and recessions since 1962
Average lead time of 24 months from first inversion to recession
BofA: Worst 10-year rolling Treasury returns in the past 100 years
Schwab: Energy up 40% and Tech up 29% YTD vs. the S&P 500 up 12%
Utilities down 7% and Consumer Discretionary down 6% year-to-date
Carson: Midterm year Q4 has been higher 84.2% of the time since 1950
Pre-election year Q1 averages +7.4% returns and has been higher 94.7% of the time
Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 forward P/E has declined to its 10-year average
Aggregate vs. median stock valuations: where is the value?
Nike $NKE at $33.37: what happened to the swoosh?
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
