September 7, 2026: Watching Them Squirm

WEBVTT
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Hello, and welcome to Russia Decoded, a podcast
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of the Center for the National Interest in Washington,
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DC. My name is Andy Kuchins. I'm a co-host,
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and I'm also a senior fellow at the Center for
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the National Interest and adjunct professor at
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the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced
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International Studies. And I'm joined, as always,
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by the venerable Chris Monday, professor of economics
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at Dongseo University in Busan, South Korea. Chris,
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good to see you. Great to be here, Andy. What's
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to talk about? Yes, there always is. And this
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week seems to be more than usual. So you are
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in the right place if you want to catch up on
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what is happening in Russia, how the Russians
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are presenting themselves to the world, and how
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they're presenting themselves to the Russian
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people. We formulate our approach with our main
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database being Russian state TV, and especially
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the weekly news program, which used to be called
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Vesti Nedeli. I'm not sure what they're calling
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it right now at the moment. But it comes on every
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Sunday night. And so it was yesterday, September
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6th. Today is September 7th, Monday night right
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now in D .C. And actually where Chris is in South
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Korea, it is Tuesday morning, September 8th.
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I have to apologize last week because several
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times mentioned 9 -7, but I meant 9 -11. We were
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talking about the Georgia war and the Russians
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claiming that 8 -8 is our 9 -11. It's not 9 -7.
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That was a gaffe on my part. And I can only attribute
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it to that September 7th is my parents' wedding
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anniversary. But I don't know. I just wanted
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to mention that Chris and I are veteran watchers
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of Russian and Soviet news. The intro to the
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show that you just heard, actually, was the intro
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to the Soviet news show circa the mid -1980s
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called Vremya, or Time. Now it's called Vesti,
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or News. Chris, there was a lot of action this
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week with Putin jetting all over Eurasia. He
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was first at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
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annual meeting in Bishkek a week ago, and then
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Russia's Eastern Economic Forum, Vostochny Ekonomический
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Форум, which is held in Vladivostok and the Primorsky
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Krai in the Russian Far East. And then he was
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back in Moscow to meet with on Saturday. a couple
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of days ago with the U .S. envoys Jared Kushner
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and Steve Witkoff in Moscow before those two
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flew to Kiev on Sunday. You know, one thing I
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noticed, Chris, is that it seems like Putin is
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kind of keeping Stalin late hours. They were
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broadcasting from Vladivostok, you know, like
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at three in the morning or something. The Kushner
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-Witkoff meeting went well past midnight. And
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so it kind of reminded me of Putin, how he liked
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to have his cronies over and drink and eat and
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have jokes, watch films until the wee hours of
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the morning. So, recall that CIA head John Ratliff
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was just in Moscow recently for talks with his
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counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin. He didn't meet
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with Vladimir Putin. There was very little read
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out from that, but the return of Kushner and
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Witkoff to Moscow for the first time since January
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is probably tied, at least in part, to the Ratliff
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visit. And, of course, the huge electoral victory
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for Alternative for Deutschland in Saxony -Anhalt
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on Sunday is a... Big story for Europe and for
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the Russians, and we'll get to that later. But
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to me, Chris, one of the biggest stories this
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week was one that Vesti did not report in full,
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and that was Narendra Modi's Indian leader, his
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ambush of Putin in their meeting in Bishkek.
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Recall how Kazakh leader Kasim Jomartakhaev had
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kind of ambushed Putin in their meeting in Omsk
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on July 25th by directly telling Putin respectfully
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and carefully that he should end the war in Ukraine
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and return to the Istanbul 2022 formula for resolving
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the conflict. Putin looked distinctly uncomfortable
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and only responded to Tokayev that they would
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discuss Ukraine behind closed doors. And that's
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all we know of that. In Bishkek. And I do recommend
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to all of our listeners to watch this video online.
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Modi was more direct with Putin than Tokayev
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was. Almost politically grandstanding, it felt
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to me, Chris. Speaking in Hindu, but mixing Hindu
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with English to say, you know, quote, you need
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to move from endless war to the end of war for
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the sake of all humanity. Talking about ending
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the war in Ukraine. There was some Gandhi -esque
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phrasing, but... Really, Modi has much sharper
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edges, I think, than Gandhi. And unlike Takaev,
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who looked a little bit nervous, Modi looked
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completely confident, while Putin looked extremely
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uncomfortable, repeatedly swallowing, perhaps
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his pride, I don't know. Looked like he wanted
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to throw up, frankly, as Modi was just kind of
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getting in his face. Now, Vesti, during the week,
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and Vesti Nadelli yesterday, focused on the initial
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photo op of Modi, Xi, and Putin. When they first
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met each other in Bishkek, they kind of all grabbed
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each other's hands. And so you have the tripartite
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union, and that's sort of the big like they had
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in China last year at the Shanghai Cooperation
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Organization meeting. But that didn't really
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seem to be the story this year. Now, the Takayev
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intervention in July was shocking and unprecedented,
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but it appears to me that Putin took it considerably
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harder coming from Modi. After all, you know,
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India is a great power that has a long history
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of strong ties with the USSR and Russia going
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back to the 1950s. Also, Modi's vibrant comments
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came after Putin's very, frankly, boring reading
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directly from note cards about things we already
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know if you follow Russia -Indian relations.
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Modi seems to have an agenda that he cut loose.
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So with this bombshell, I'm even more curious
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about whatever she said to Putin or has said.
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Putin of late regarding the war in Ukraine. I
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don't think that Xi can be pleased to witness
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this summer's escalation cycle. And he's coming
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to Washington for talks with Trump in a little
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more than two weeks. Anyway, we'll return to
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the SCO meeting a little bit later, which per
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usual was long on pageantry and a seeming endless
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series of bilateral meetings. Making me wonder,
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Chris, how much time do you actually have for
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the main meeting with all these bilaterals going
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on? But then on substance as usual. What was
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your take on this, Chris? Of course, Vesti does
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not show that clip. What they show, they really
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emphasize the friendship, drushba, you know,
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with India, with Modi. They mainly show the pictures.
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So if you're just a casual Russian viewer, that's
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what you'd see is, you know, Putin has such a
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great relationship with Modi. And you'd have
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to be actively search out if you're Russian for
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that kind of news. even if you're american it
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wasn't reported on that much i think oh we didn't
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see yes yeah Yeah, that's a good point, Andy.
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The Western press, I think, is a little too anti
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-Trump. It kind of gets in the way of a proper
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analysis. In some ways, we have to admit, Trump's
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diplomacy is much better than he gets credit
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for. I think behind the scenes, we see Trump
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there working with Modi and Takayev. We know
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he's been working with Lukashenko. And he's been
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slowly, of course, Armenia and Azerbaijan he's
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had great success with. And it looks like perhaps...
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He's been slowly kind of tearing them away or
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pushing them, getting them to question their
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relationship with Putin. You know, this is just
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my own hunch. You know, we don't know. But my
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guess is this will not really go anywhere. My
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guess is that Modi, like Lukashenko and Takayev
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in Kazakhstan, they're going to be unwilling
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to take any real actions that hurt their economy.
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The end message here is, of course, China. China
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holds the cards. If China wants the Russian war
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to stop, it'll stop. If they don't do anything,
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which is my guess, then they'll just continue.
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So that's my take, Andy. Yeah, I agree with you
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that China is the key player for Russia. You
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know, they hold so much economic leverage over
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the Russians right now that if she were to say
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something, I think that Putin would have to listen
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pretty carefully and take it pretty seriously.
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Whether that would alter his policy, I can't
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say. So back to the SCO meeting a bit. So Vesti
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replayed all week parts of Putin's press conference
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last week in Bishkek, where again, he emphasized
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Moscow's devastating responses to Zelensky's
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supposed opening of the Pandora's box this summer,
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which he's been talking about for weeks with
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their long range strikes on energy and logistical
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targets. Now, there were interesting, Chris,
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there were two planted questions that were featured.
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One, on whether Russian forces would go after
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Ukrainian political leadership, which Putin responded,
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no, you know, we're going to need someone to
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negotiate with eventually. It reminds me of,
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you know, Trump's reaction early on in the Iran
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war when the Israelis took out so much of the
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Iranian leadership. He's wondering, like, who
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was he going to negotiate with? Now, whether
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he was talking tongue -in -cheek, it was interesting
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that that question was planted in the reporter
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pool. The second question asked whether Russian
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forces would go after British targets, which
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we've been talking about for the last couple
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of weeks on Russia Decoded. And to this Putin,
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classic Putin response, he's kind of got a smirk
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on his face. He's clearly trolling the West.
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And he says, it's a military secret. Ha, ha,
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ha, ha, ha. The VST coverage this week featured
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Putin meetings with Xi, Modi, Erdogan of Turkey,
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Pazesh Gyan, the president of Iran, Lukashenko
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of Belarus, of course, the host, Chapadov of
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Kyrgyzstan, Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, Mirza
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Yolyov of Uzbekistan, and Armenia's Pashinyan.
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It was interesting that Aliyev, Chapadov, Mirziyoyev,
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and Lukashenko, they all spoke Russian with Putin,
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while they did show Pashinyan speaking Armenian.
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And they did not show Takaev at all. Takaev was
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there. He's in the photos. It's an interesting
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question for me, and I suppose we could easily
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find out the answer if we had a little more time
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as to whether Takaev actually spoke in Russian
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or in Kazakh to Mr. Putin. So much is made about
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this 25th anniversary of the SCO. To me, always
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an organization, very short of actual achievements,
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but I think it's useful as a dialogue platform
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for leaders to meet. I was interviewed by RTVI,
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a Russian internet news channel, last week. They
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essentially wanted me to respond to... Well,
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frankly, a bad New York Times article last week
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that was emphasizing how much of a threat the
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SEO is to the United States. My response was
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that the SEO presents very, very, very little
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threat to the United States. Part of the problem
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is that there are major conflicts between member
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states, obviously India and China, India and
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Pakistan, and different states have different
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approaches to the United States. But I am very
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worried about the China, Iran, North Korea, Russia
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emerging counter -alliance system that we have
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been discussing more and more, Chris. Fiesti
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did note that India is hosting the BRICS meeting
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in New Delhi, like next week. A lot of the same
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key players. I wonder, you know, how that will
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look in contrast to the SCO. What are they actually
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going to talk about? I mean, it's not quite the
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same lineup, but Russia, China, India, and a
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number of others that were there in Bishkek will
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be in New Delhi just a week later. Seems kind
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of strange to me. Just one last note on Modi
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and Putin. The two rode out together to the Nomad
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Games. Eventually a very cool thing that the
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Kyrgyz hold. I think this is the fourth time
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they've done it in the last dozen years or so.
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When I was there for three years, not too long
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ago, I was not a participant. I was a witness
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in the Nomad Games. But they rode out together
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in a car. I'm assuming that car ride took place
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before the public session or did it? I can't
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imagine that Modi gave Putin a heads up. Hey,
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by the way, I'm going to like, you know, talk
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a lot about, you know, the Ukraine war and how
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you should end it. Uh -huh. It looked like Modi
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wanted a public ambush. That's very curious to
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me, Chris. At any rate, why don't you share your
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further thoughts on the SCO and then talk to
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our listeners about the other big event in the
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Russian Far East, the Eastern Economic Forum
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in Vladivostok, where a lot was going on from
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a reporting standpoint. Andy, very interesting.
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Of course, when we watch Vesti, we see Putin,
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he's clearly, he's very happy. He's enjoying
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himself. He loves meeting these foreign diplomats.
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He thinks he's, you know, he thinks of himself
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as this top, you know, diplomatic, geopolitical
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expert. Of course, during COVID and the first
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years of the war, he was basically in complete
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isolation. And some were saying paranoia. And
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we see Putin, he snapped back. It was a very
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interesting Vesti. They just repeatedly, they
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show Putin in a large frame. It's almost, you
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know, like one of these, you know, Gothic paintings
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where you see the king is 20 times bigger than
00:13:22.350 --> 00:13:25.129
everyone else. You know, there's this feeling
00:13:25.129 --> 00:13:28.309
like Putin, he's literally 30 feet tall or something,
00:13:28.490 --> 00:13:30.809
talking to these, you know, everyone else, these
00:13:30.809 --> 00:13:32.990
midgets. We don't really see, you know, you just
00:13:32.990 --> 00:13:38.049
see little snippets of Sechen or the head of
00:13:38.049 --> 00:13:42.850
Rusnel. or Lavrov, but it's all just Putin talking,
00:13:43.049 --> 00:13:46.950
very Putin -centric. But in reality, of course,
00:13:46.970 --> 00:13:51.750
that's not how things are. Of course, it is China
00:13:51.750 --> 00:13:54.990
-centric, Xi. And we're definitely seeing how
00:13:54.990 --> 00:14:02.129
China will conduct itself. Xi, he's not flaunting
00:14:02.129 --> 00:14:05.940
things. he's not making any threats he's not
00:14:05.940 --> 00:14:09.039
demanding anything we don't we don't even hear
00:14:09.039 --> 00:14:12.320
much remember one belt one road that seems to
00:14:12.320 --> 00:14:14.720
just have just disappeared this idea that you
00:14:14.720 --> 00:14:17.759
know all the roads all roads lead to rome all
00:14:17.759 --> 00:14:21.340
roads will lead to beijing uh that that seems
00:14:21.340 --> 00:14:24.740
to kind of fallen out i didn't hear anything
00:14:24.740 --> 00:14:28.860
about that What I'd say is China has learned
00:14:28.860 --> 00:14:32.799
from world history, from the British Empire,
00:14:33.059 --> 00:14:36.740
not to have any colonies. From the Soviet Empire,
00:14:37.059 --> 00:14:40.740
no invasions. There was all this talk that China
00:14:40.740 --> 00:14:43.440
will take advantage of Russia and seize some
00:14:43.440 --> 00:14:48.019
land in the Far East. There's nothing like that.
00:14:48.460 --> 00:14:50.639
There's no threat. He doesn't make any threats,
00:14:50.840 --> 00:14:53.940
any military threats. And then he's learned from
00:14:53.940 --> 00:14:57.580
us, from our failures, there's no special relationships.
00:14:57.759 --> 00:15:00.419
There's no Ireland. There's no England. There's
00:15:00.419 --> 00:15:03.919
definitely no Israel. He doesn't want to make
00:15:03.919 --> 00:15:08.039
any commitments. He keeps everything open. Putin
00:15:08.039 --> 00:15:11.500
could disappear and China, I mean, they wouldn't
00:15:11.500 --> 00:15:15.279
really suffer so much. He can meet Modi. Then
00:15:15.279 --> 00:15:19.549
he's going to meet Trump. This complete, you
00:15:19.549 --> 00:15:23.649
know, a whole wide array of options with no commitments.
00:15:23.970 --> 00:15:26.490
For Russia, what we see, I mean, it was just
00:15:26.490 --> 00:15:29.570
really pathetic. You know, in the end, I like
00:15:29.570 --> 00:15:32.409
you, you know, I like Russia, you know, despite
00:15:32.409 --> 00:15:35.429
it all. And it's just embarrassing. I'm just
00:15:35.429 --> 00:15:39.990
slobbering over China. And they want these pipelines,
00:15:40.389 --> 00:15:44.759
the Silesi -Giri -Dva. It's a power of Siberia
00:15:44.759 --> 00:15:47.899
to pipeline, which I talk about endlessly. But
00:15:47.899 --> 00:15:51.279
I mean, there's just no no progress made. Chinese
00:15:51.279 --> 00:15:54.340
have made made no commitments whatsoever. And
00:15:54.340 --> 00:15:58.320
they just, you know, increasingly Russia is the
00:15:58.320 --> 00:16:01.320
supplicant completely dependent on China. And
00:16:01.320 --> 00:16:05.480
China doesn't really do much to bail Russia out
00:16:05.480 --> 00:16:08.559
of its difficulties. Just a quick word on Xi.
00:16:08.759 --> 00:16:11.100
I completely agree with you. The guy has an amazing
00:16:11.100 --> 00:16:14.720
poker face. He just kind of looks on impassively.
00:16:14.940 --> 00:16:17.399
You know, China is the center of the universe.
00:16:17.860 --> 00:16:21.019
I am the center of China. He's never emotional.
00:16:21.159 --> 00:16:23.940
He's such a stark contrast to Donald Trump, but
00:16:23.940 --> 00:16:27.139
also a contrast to Putin. He does get emotionally
00:16:27.139 --> 00:16:31.159
fired up. He keeps his card so close to his chest.
00:16:31.279 --> 00:16:33.899
You know, and I think on the Belt and Road, I
00:16:33.899 --> 00:16:36.480
think the Chinese are just a lot quieter about
00:16:36.480 --> 00:16:39.460
what they're doing. They're still making investments,
00:16:39.679 --> 00:16:42.759
you know, in this. what would look like the,
00:16:42.759 --> 00:16:44.879
you know, the overland route, the Silk Road Economic
00:16:44.879 --> 00:16:48.779
Belt, as well as by sea. You know, whereas when
00:16:48.779 --> 00:16:51.139
he first came to power and announced the plan
00:16:51.139 --> 00:16:54.799
back in 2013 in Kazakhstan, interestingly, you
00:16:54.799 --> 00:16:57.620
know, there was a lot of hoopla about it. He's
00:16:57.620 --> 00:17:00.600
learned his lesson. He keeps it quiet now. Keep
00:17:00.600 --> 00:17:03.220
it quiet. At any rate, back to you. Well, the
00:17:03.220 --> 00:17:07.460
one thing that Russia did focus on, I think they
00:17:07.460 --> 00:17:10.819
were frustrated with their new position. You
00:17:10.819 --> 00:17:13.940
know, Putin's clearly been downgraded. But they
00:17:13.940 --> 00:17:16.640
did show, of course, Armenia, where they, according
00:17:16.640 --> 00:17:19.720
to the Russian news, Bosnia and Israel are being
00:17:19.720 --> 00:17:23.180
pressured to choose between the European Union
00:17:23.180 --> 00:17:26.720
or the Russian market. And they just kind of
00:17:26.720 --> 00:17:29.220
gloat over, you know, we have him, you know,
00:17:29.240 --> 00:17:32.599
where we want him. But how true this is. and
00:17:32.599 --> 00:17:35.859
how much, just like Ukraine, if they overpressure
00:17:35.859 --> 00:17:40.259
Armenia and Armenia drifts away, it's hard to
00:17:40.259 --> 00:17:42.559
tell. It's interesting that you raise that, Chris,
00:17:42.680 --> 00:17:44.740
because tomorrow I'm interviewing the Armenian
00:17:44.740 --> 00:17:47.819
ambassador in Washington, and we'll publish the
00:17:47.819 --> 00:17:49.759
interview in the National Interest like we did
00:17:49.759 --> 00:17:52.539
last week with the interview with Uzbek ambassador.
00:17:52.839 --> 00:17:56.140
But just coincidentally, today, September 7th,
00:17:56.539 --> 00:17:59.799
It was announced in Yerevan and in Moscow that
00:17:59.799 --> 00:18:03.599
Pashinyan will be going out to Moscow again before
00:18:03.599 --> 00:18:07.259
the end of the year. And Pashinyan went to Moscow
00:18:07.259 --> 00:18:10.059
in May before the Armenian elections. And we
00:18:10.059 --> 00:18:12.819
talked about it a lot on Russia Decoded. And
00:18:12.819 --> 00:18:17.059
Putin really put him on the hot seat. It was,
00:18:17.059 --> 00:18:20.319
I mean, Pashinyan held his own. But what they
00:18:20.319 --> 00:18:23.319
showed on Vesti was very, very tough. And just
00:18:23.319 --> 00:18:27.099
as you say. And Peskov said that, well, Pashinyan
00:18:27.099 --> 00:18:29.460
will come out and we'll talk about Armenia's
00:18:29.460 --> 00:18:33.160
European and Eurasian directions. It's just like
00:18:33.160 --> 00:18:36.220
the replay of, let's say, you know, beginning
00:18:36.220 --> 00:18:39.720
in 2013 with Ukraine before the war. The one
00:18:39.720 --> 00:18:42.240
benefit that Armenia has is it doesn't share
00:18:42.240 --> 00:18:44.599
a border with the Russian Federation. At any
00:18:44.599 --> 00:18:46.740
rate, sorry, I just wanted to add that. What
00:18:46.740 --> 00:18:49.480
I think it shows is Putin's true face. He loves
00:18:49.480 --> 00:18:52.980
to pressure, put pressure on these leaders, watch
00:18:52.980 --> 00:18:55.630
them squirm. You know, if she, I think if she,
00:18:55.690 --> 00:18:59.069
if the position somehow got reversed, you know,
00:18:59.069 --> 00:19:01.309
Putin would do the same thing, which she'd love
00:19:01.309 --> 00:19:04.589
to watch. Absolutely. stance. Putin, inside,
00:19:04.950 --> 00:19:07.849
he's very bitter about what's happened and his
00:19:07.849 --> 00:19:12.670
lowered rank. Also, Andy, I was very interested
00:19:12.670 --> 00:19:15.170
in Uzbekistan. It seemed like there was a lot
00:19:15.170 --> 00:19:17.690
of, they announced like there's Mirziyoyev, the
00:19:17.690 --> 00:19:19.349
president, there's going to be some meetings,
00:19:19.509 --> 00:19:21.950
and that never happened. It seems like there's
00:19:21.950 --> 00:19:25.109
also some underground tension there. If I could
00:19:25.109 --> 00:19:28.410
turn quickly to Vladivostok. Well, I just said
00:19:28.410 --> 00:19:31.109
Uzbekistan. I do recommend to our listeners to
00:19:31.109 --> 00:19:33.160
read. I interviewed with the Uzbek ambassador
00:19:33.160 --> 00:19:35.579
last week in the National Interest. It's titled
00:19:35.579 --> 00:19:38.160
The New Uzbekistan. But Uzbekistan is fortunate
00:19:38.160 --> 00:19:40.599
also, like Armenia, that it does not share a
00:19:40.599 --> 00:19:43.079
border with Russia. And they're, you know, they're
00:19:43.079 --> 00:19:46.799
the most populous country in Central Asia. They
00:19:46.799 --> 00:19:48.819
have, I think, the strongest sense of national
00:19:48.819 --> 00:19:51.160
identity. You know, that this kind of was the
00:19:51.160 --> 00:19:53.940
center of the world, as my old friend, mentor,
00:19:54.079 --> 00:19:57.259
and collaborator Fred Starr has argued for 25
00:19:57.259 --> 00:19:59.619
years. That's an interesting relation to watch.
00:19:59.880 --> 00:20:02.799
Okay, back to you. Yeah. And then on Russian
00:20:02.799 --> 00:20:06.660
Vesti, they shifted dramatically to, again, this
00:20:06.660 --> 00:20:09.740
Putin, you know, Putin's everywhere, his trip
00:20:09.740 --> 00:20:14.059
to Vladivostok and his economic meetings and
00:20:14.059 --> 00:20:18.079
conferences. But what I saw is Putin, you know,
00:20:18.079 --> 00:20:24.440
he is aged. He was unable to come up to, you
00:20:24.440 --> 00:20:26.819
know, his former standards where he definitely
00:20:26.819 --> 00:20:29.819
had the stamina, you know, to give these, you
00:20:29.819 --> 00:20:32.230
know, four hours. meeting here, 10 -hour meeting
00:20:32.230 --> 00:20:34.789
there. You could see it was a little too much
00:20:34.789 --> 00:20:37.789
for him. He was coughing. He looked bored. He
00:20:37.789 --> 00:20:40.769
was reading. He must be exhausted. Yeah, Putin,
00:20:40.829 --> 00:20:44.630
he's very bored with economics and he was reading
00:20:44.630 --> 00:20:47.450
these economic sheets. You just see him reading
00:20:47.450 --> 00:20:49.710
and he was just clearly bored. He doesn't care.
00:20:49.910 --> 00:20:51.950
I don't think he really cares much about that
00:20:51.950 --> 00:20:54.569
area. But on Vesti, it's very interesting the
00:20:54.569 --> 00:20:59.450
way they portrayed it. They always show the 90s,
00:20:59.450 --> 00:21:03.349
how horrible the 90s were. Both of us lived in
00:21:03.349 --> 00:21:05.930
Russia in the 90s. I'm not sure how, you know,
00:21:05.930 --> 00:21:07.970
there were some problems, but I don't know how,
00:21:08.049 --> 00:21:10.680
you know, horrible. it was. But, you know, they
00:21:10.680 --> 00:21:12.980
play it. It's very interesting. They say Vladivostok
00:21:12.980 --> 00:21:17.880
was in the 90s, the Gulaipole. So educated viewers,
00:21:18.200 --> 00:21:20.259
Russian viewers will understand this was the
00:21:20.259 --> 00:21:23.900
Ukrainian home of Nestermak, the anarchist. And
00:21:23.900 --> 00:21:26.940
so it's a very interesting analogy with Vladivostok
00:21:26.940 --> 00:21:30.420
saying it's Gulaipole. I was in Vladivostok in
00:21:30.420 --> 00:21:34.819
1993, and I got to say, it was very, very depressing.
00:21:35.519 --> 00:21:38.240
I mean, there were these old, it's the home of
00:21:38.240 --> 00:21:41.220
the Russian Pacific Fleet or just previously
00:21:41.220 --> 00:21:43.660
the Soviet Pacific Fleet. And there were these
00:21:43.660 --> 00:21:47.640
old, rusting military ships in the harbor. And
00:21:47.640 --> 00:21:49.359
they're right, I mean, they're right there in
00:21:49.359 --> 00:21:52.599
your face. As I'm from San Francisco, they used
00:21:52.599 --> 00:21:55.339
to say that Vladivostok is like the San Francisco
00:21:55.339 --> 00:21:58.640
of the Far East. It's a city built on hills.
00:22:00.039 --> 00:22:02.880
The contrast between Vladivostok and San Francisco
00:22:02.880 --> 00:22:05.319
couldn't be further. As a major port city, it
00:22:05.319 --> 00:22:08.019
was dominated by organized crime. To me, it kind
00:22:08.019 --> 00:22:10.799
of felt like a Vladivostok infomercial. I mean,
00:22:10.799 --> 00:22:13.779
they're presenting how much Vladivostok has developed,
00:22:13.880 --> 00:22:16.519
you know, since this time in the 1990s, which
00:22:16.519 --> 00:22:19.220
was an extremely rugged time, especially for...
00:22:19.220 --> 00:22:22.359
Yeah, and they say that it's the magnet for business
00:22:22.359 --> 00:22:25.819
in Asia. The thing is, we've seen this many,
00:22:25.960 --> 00:22:30.720
many times before. Uh, this goes back, uh, 2012,
00:22:30.960 --> 00:22:33.680
they had the APEC meeting and interestingly,
00:22:33.940 --> 00:22:36.140
uh, you know, Russian, they just promoted this
00:22:36.140 --> 00:22:39.519
again and again was this wonderful new university.
00:22:39.579 --> 00:22:42.299
You know, the Harvard, the new Harvard was the
00:22:42.299 --> 00:22:45.519
foreign, the new bridge university. Maybe it's
00:22:45.519 --> 00:22:47.680
the heart of business in Asia compared to Magadan.
00:22:48.530 --> 00:22:52.630
Yeah, but they sunk billions of dollars into
00:22:52.630 --> 00:22:55.170
this. And I don't know about you, Andy, but I
00:22:55.170 --> 00:22:58.069
never hear, it's not far from us here in Busan,
00:22:58.349 --> 00:23:00.589
we never hear anything about that university
00:23:00.589 --> 00:23:04.170
anymore. We get here in Busan, we have many students
00:23:04.170 --> 00:23:07.509
from Vladivostok, and I can say they're very
00:23:07.509 --> 00:23:10.650
frustrated. They feel abandoned. They see the
00:23:10.650 --> 00:23:13.789
difference between the rest of Asia. you know,
00:23:13.809 --> 00:23:15.769
which is very close for them. You know, it used
00:23:15.769 --> 00:23:18.630
to be an hour, hour plane trip and you're in
00:23:18.630 --> 00:23:21.750
Busan or Seoul, which is very advanced. They
00:23:21.750 --> 00:23:23.930
all complain about how they still pretty, still
00:23:23.930 --> 00:23:26.230
pretty sad. Let's turn to another story. There
00:23:26.230 --> 00:23:28.509
was a huge report on Germany and its elections
00:23:28.509 --> 00:23:31.500
yesterday. where the results were, I think, still
00:23:31.500 --> 00:23:34.319
coming in when Vesti was broadcast. So this was
00:23:34.319 --> 00:23:37.599
a long report, starting with the German demarche
00:23:37.599 --> 00:23:40.119
to the Russian government last week, closing
00:23:40.119 --> 00:23:43.079
down the Russian consulate in Bonn. Of course,
00:23:43.079 --> 00:23:45.859
it was the former embassy to West Germany for
00:23:45.859 --> 00:23:49.259
unification. And the closure of the Russian House
00:23:49.259 --> 00:23:52.299
for Science and Culture, which was... founded
00:23:52.299 --> 00:23:55.420
back in 1984 and looks very much like a late
00:23:55.420 --> 00:23:58.619
Soviet building. These acts were taken by Chancellor
00:23:58.619 --> 00:24:01.799
Merz in response, apparently, to the drone incident
00:24:01.799 --> 00:24:05.299
at Leipzig Airport, which, of course, the Russians
00:24:05.299 --> 00:24:08.140
deny any responsibility for. They characterize
00:24:08.140 --> 00:24:12.619
it as a Ukrainian false flag play. But the VST
00:24:12.619 --> 00:24:15.599
notes that no bombs went off. The German response
00:24:15.599 --> 00:24:18.460
was very firm. Frankly, for me, kind of verging
00:24:18.460 --> 00:24:21.190
on extreme. And there is a strong East versus
00:24:21.190 --> 00:24:24.369
West Germany aspect to this story. Teen up the
00:24:24.369 --> 00:24:27.390
elections in Saxony and Holt, a relatively small
00:24:27.390 --> 00:24:30.349
region in the former German Democratic Republic
00:24:30.349 --> 00:24:33.859
or East Germany, about 2 million plus. And they
00:24:33.859 --> 00:24:37.359
run through a World War II, Cold War story where
00:24:37.359 --> 00:24:40.819
the Soviet military had rescued German art treasures
00:24:40.819 --> 00:24:44.799
from Dresden in 1945 before the Americans firebombed
00:24:44.799 --> 00:24:47.539
the city and just totally destroyed it. And these
00:24:47.539 --> 00:24:51.200
were later returned to Germany in 1990 -91, kind
00:24:51.200 --> 00:24:53.119
of tied to the unification of Germany agreement.
00:24:53.480 --> 00:24:55.539
And there was an aspect to this as kind of a
00:24:55.539 --> 00:24:58.299
lack of gratitude for the good deed the Russians
00:24:58.299 --> 00:25:01.160
had done in 1945 and, of course, the end of the
00:25:01.160 --> 00:25:04.740
Cold War. But the story more featured how shocked
00:25:04.740 --> 00:25:07.859
the East Germans were, according to Viesti, when
00:25:07.859 --> 00:25:11.000
in 1990 Mikhail Gorbachev basically sold them
00:25:11.000 --> 00:25:14.079
down the river for several billion dollars in
00:25:14.079 --> 00:25:17.299
assistance from West Germany. in what they describe
00:25:17.299 --> 00:25:19.720
as a humiliating unification agreement, raising
00:25:19.720 --> 00:25:22.180
the deception of the United States, breaking
00:25:22.180 --> 00:25:25.099
the oral promise made by the U .S. government,
00:25:25.200 --> 00:25:27.500
which was actually made by James Baker. But it
00:25:27.500 --> 00:25:31.420
was never made by George H .W. Bush. And then
00:25:31.420 --> 00:25:34.880
they go on to the naivete of Mikhail Gorbachev.
00:25:34.920 --> 00:25:38.839
There's a lot of GDR Soviet nostalgia. As I mentioned,
00:25:39.000 --> 00:25:42.319
the Russia House was opened in 1984, when frankly,
00:25:42.440 --> 00:25:45.539
nobody was imagining the unification of Germany
00:25:45.539 --> 00:25:48.059
or the end of the Cold War, let alone the collapse
00:25:48.059 --> 00:25:50.079
of the Soviet Union. And let me just share a
00:25:50.079 --> 00:25:53.019
brief story of that time, because I was in 1984.
00:25:53.299 --> 00:25:56.099
I spent my first academic year of the master's
00:25:56.099 --> 00:25:58.099
program at Johns Hopkins SAIS in Bologna, and
00:25:58.099 --> 00:25:59.819
there were a number of West German students.
00:26:00.440 --> 00:26:02.299
One day I was talking with them, and these are
00:26:02.299 --> 00:26:04.500
like, you know, the future of, you know, West
00:26:04.500 --> 00:26:07.279
German international relations experts. And I
00:26:07.279 --> 00:26:10.000
said to them, can you imagine in the next 25
00:26:10.000 --> 00:26:12.700
years that it just seems to me that the separation
00:26:12.700 --> 00:26:15.960
of East and West Germany is unnatural. And can
00:26:15.960 --> 00:26:18.039
you imagine that there would be unification of
00:26:18.039 --> 00:26:19.980
Germany in the next 25 years? And they said,
00:26:20.039 --> 00:26:22.200
oh, absolutely no way, Andy. You don't know history.
00:26:22.400 --> 00:26:24.720
I said, well, what about in our lifetimes? No
00:26:24.720 --> 00:26:27.099
way, Andy. You don't understand history. Now,
00:26:27.099 --> 00:26:28.900
I'm not saying that I'm Nostradamus, but five
00:26:28.900 --> 00:26:31.460
years later, the Berlin Wall was down. And a
00:26:31.460 --> 00:26:33.700
year after that, I mean, Germany was reunified.
00:26:33.819 --> 00:26:36.440
And a year after that, I mean, the Cold War ended
00:26:36.440 --> 00:26:39.240
then. And a year later, the Soviet Union did
00:26:39.240 --> 00:26:42.259
break up. So then there's a more current report
00:26:42.259 --> 00:26:45.880
by the European -Germany main correspondent there.
00:26:45.940 --> 00:26:48.759
We see a lot. Mikhail Antonov is very sharp.
00:26:49.000 --> 00:26:51.640
He's noting the harshness of the German response
00:26:51.640 --> 00:26:55.420
to drones that did nothing, as he says, and giving
00:26:55.420 --> 00:26:58.099
only seven days for the staff of the Russia House
00:26:58.099 --> 00:27:00.200
to leave the country and the consulate being
00:27:00.200 --> 00:27:03.539
told to close by September 18th and diplomats
00:27:03.539 --> 00:27:06.819
out of the country then. So Merz seems to be
00:27:06.819 --> 00:27:09.200
clearly using these measures to make a statement
00:27:09.200 --> 00:27:12.380
to the German people as they have several other
00:27:12.380 --> 00:27:14.920
regional elections later this month trying to
00:27:14.920 --> 00:27:17.700
drum up support for the Christian Democrats and
00:27:17.700 --> 00:27:20.700
his coalition partners and to thwart the party
00:27:20.700 --> 00:27:23.839
alternative for Deutschland, alternative for
00:27:23.839 --> 00:27:25.880
Germany. Now, if this was a strategy, Chris,
00:27:26.059 --> 00:27:30.099
I mean, it fell flat as in Saxony and Holt as
00:27:30.099 --> 00:27:33.819
the returns of the AFD were 44 plus percent and
00:27:33.819 --> 00:27:38.809
the CDP. a very distant second at 18%. Now, whether
00:27:38.809 --> 00:27:42.289
the AFD will be able to form a government in
00:27:42.289 --> 00:27:45.730
Saxony and Holt, it requires another small party
00:27:45.730 --> 00:27:48.410
or a group of deputies to join up. And Merz is
00:27:48.410 --> 00:27:50.490
continuing to call for the continued boycott
00:27:50.490 --> 00:27:54.559
of AFD. which I'm personally skeptical it's going
00:27:54.559 --> 00:27:57.680
to hold in Saxony and Holt, and perhaps even
00:27:57.680 --> 00:28:00.420
more broadly, as we'll learn more about as this
00:28:00.420 --> 00:28:03.119
month goes on. But as a political harbinger for
00:28:03.119 --> 00:28:05.220
the rest of Germany, this election was almost
00:28:05.220 --> 00:28:07.680
the worst case scenario for Mertz and his ruling
00:28:07.680 --> 00:28:10.579
coalition. What's your take, Chris? Yeah, very
00:28:10.579 --> 00:28:13.460
interesting, Andy. My own impression, it's just
00:28:13.460 --> 00:28:15.960
an impression, is the German response looked...
00:28:16.650 --> 00:28:18.349
very weak. You know, again, I'm watching the
00:28:18.349 --> 00:28:20.569
Russian news. So, of course, that's how they
00:28:20.569 --> 00:28:22.890
trivialized the whole thing. You know, again,
00:28:23.009 --> 00:28:27.309
Russia, it looks like they flew an armed drone
00:28:27.309 --> 00:28:30.490
into a German airport. And what we hear about
00:28:30.490 --> 00:28:33.109
is they're closing this cultural house, Russia
00:28:33.109 --> 00:28:37.109
house. And then in response, Lavrov was threatening
00:28:37.109 --> 00:28:40.930
to close the Goethe Institute in St. Petersburg.
00:28:41.109 --> 00:28:43.940
I took a few classes there. I mean, it's not
00:28:43.940 --> 00:28:47.259
a major institution or anything, and it just
00:28:47.259 --> 00:28:51.880
seems kind of comic in a way compared to a few
00:28:51.880 --> 00:28:53.960
months ago when we were talking about the Sarmat
00:28:53.960 --> 00:28:58.460
and nuclear Armageddon. For me, it's very interesting.
00:28:58.559 --> 00:29:02.099
I'm submitting a paper on nuclear escalation
00:29:02.099 --> 00:29:05.440
here in South Korea. As John Mersheimer correctly
00:29:05.440 --> 00:29:09.940
says, we don't know much about the modern escalation
00:29:09.940 --> 00:29:12.819
ladder. And some people say, for example, in
00:29:12.819 --> 00:29:15.579
Iran, we're stuck in an escalation trap. What's
00:29:15.579 --> 00:29:19.289
interesting with Europe and Russia... is that
00:29:19.289 --> 00:29:23.849
it seems like Russia has an incentive to de -escalate,
00:29:23.849 --> 00:29:27.150
to go down and to like, you know, close the Goethe
00:29:27.150 --> 00:29:30.450
Institute and not threaten a nuclear war. And
00:29:30.450 --> 00:29:33.490
what they're trying to do is alter the political
00:29:33.490 --> 00:29:36.250
scene in Europe. And it seems like they're having
00:29:36.250 --> 00:29:39.960
some success in this. And they show this again
00:29:39.960 --> 00:29:42.960
and constantly investing in the Russian news,
00:29:43.140 --> 00:29:46.180
their success with the so -called pro -Russian
00:29:46.180 --> 00:29:49.980
parties coming to power in France, Britain and
00:29:49.980 --> 00:29:53.599
Germany. How pro -Russian they'll remain, I'm
00:29:53.599 --> 00:29:56.740
not sure. We saw with Trump, he was supposedly
00:29:56.740 --> 00:30:00.720
a Russian, a Siberian candidate, Trump, but he
00:30:00.720 --> 00:30:03.980
has not been very pro -Russian. And then I know
00:30:03.980 --> 00:30:07.000
this is just a hunch, but one woman to watch,
00:30:07.119 --> 00:30:10.059
I think, is Sarah Wagenknecht. I hope a German
00:30:10.059 --> 00:30:12.980
viewer could help us, a German expert. But she
00:30:12.980 --> 00:30:15.839
seems kind of like a German Tulsi Gabbard, kind
00:30:15.839 --> 00:30:19.319
of liberal who sides often with conservatives
00:30:19.319 --> 00:30:22.500
and often is very pro -Russian. And I think she'll
00:30:22.500 --> 00:30:25.700
be key to forming any new coalition. As I understand
00:30:25.700 --> 00:30:28.240
it, I'm not a German expert. And then, of course,
00:30:28.279 --> 00:30:32.019
the other big story is the death, the looming
00:30:32.019 --> 00:30:35.000
death of Volkswagen. And this is going to put
00:30:35.000 --> 00:30:38.220
huge political pressure on Germany to cut some
00:30:38.220 --> 00:30:40.980
kind of deal with Russia. So it's going to be
00:30:40.980 --> 00:30:43.920
a very murky situation. I agree with your take
00:30:43.920 --> 00:30:46.599
that the German response looked quite weak and
00:30:46.599 --> 00:30:50.180
it boomeranged, I think. I think certainly the
00:30:50.180 --> 00:30:54.059
East German voters in Saxony and Holt didn't
00:30:54.059 --> 00:30:57.720
buy this. And one of my kind of pet peeves is
00:30:57.720 --> 00:31:00.880
that Western mainstream press, particularly,
00:31:01.099 --> 00:31:04.859
you know, U .S. outlets, continue to refer to
00:31:04.859 --> 00:31:09.640
AFD as this extreme far -right party. You know,
00:31:09.680 --> 00:31:12.019
maybe while that might have been more true five
00:31:12.019 --> 00:31:15.099
years ago or so, I mean, what has happened as
00:31:15.099 --> 00:31:16.819
we've seen in the United States and what we're
00:31:16.819 --> 00:31:19.809
seeing happening across Europe? And not only
00:31:19.809 --> 00:31:21.789
in the United States and Europe, is that the
00:31:21.789 --> 00:31:24.910
political spectrum is moving from what was an
00:31:24.910 --> 00:31:27.730
extreme right party is more like a center right
00:31:27.730 --> 00:31:29.930
party, I think. And certainly, of course, you
00:31:29.930 --> 00:31:33.109
know, AFD in Germany is trying to present itself
00:31:33.109 --> 00:31:36.589
more like that. And I just think Mertz's strategy
00:31:36.589 --> 00:31:40.529
of calling for all parties to boycott this party,
00:31:40.650 --> 00:31:42.900
I just think it's a loser. You know, it's not
00:31:42.900 --> 00:31:45.619
that I'm, you know, necessarily a big advocate
00:31:45.619 --> 00:31:48.319
for AFD, but, you know, I'm a political scientist
00:31:48.319 --> 00:31:50.640
and I see what's happening. And, you know, you
00:31:50.640 --> 00:31:53.460
have to kind of adjust to reality. People care
00:31:53.460 --> 00:31:56.759
first and foremost about economics. That's right.
00:31:56.960 --> 00:32:00.200
And we have to put that, it's the economy stupid,
00:32:00.480 --> 00:32:03.420
as they said during the Clinton years. And things
00:32:03.420 --> 00:32:05.519
aren't going well in Germany. I mean, Germany,
00:32:05.700 --> 00:32:08.519
the economic miracle is looking like it's in
00:32:08.519 --> 00:32:10.980
the rearview mirror. They have suffered a great
00:32:10.980 --> 00:32:13.769
deal. from cutting off energy ties, in particular
00:32:13.769 --> 00:32:18.029
gas ties, with Russia as Europe has more broadly.
00:32:18.230 --> 00:32:21.089
But, you know, Germany is a manufacturing powerhouse.
00:32:21.250 --> 00:32:24.750
And so with higher electricity prices and, you
00:32:24.750 --> 00:32:27.690
know, and a lot of that comes from gas, they're
00:32:27.690 --> 00:32:30.470
not willing to actually build nuclear reactors
00:32:30.470 --> 00:32:32.549
and they're not willing to take Russian gas.
00:32:32.730 --> 00:32:34.509
Well, what are you going to... Something's going
00:32:34.509 --> 00:32:36.930
to snap, I think, in Germany. And of course,
00:32:36.970 --> 00:32:39.349
you know, Germany is the fulcrum of Europe, you
00:32:39.349 --> 00:32:42.089
know, sorry, France and Italy and Poland and
00:32:42.089 --> 00:32:44.490
the rest of Europe, but it really is the key
00:32:44.490 --> 00:32:46.450
state. And it's also the key state, you know,
00:32:46.470 --> 00:32:48.950
in the, you know, the NATO alliance with the
00:32:48.950 --> 00:32:52.069
United States. So, so goes Germany. The impact
00:32:52.069 --> 00:32:55.509
is felt far and wide, I think. So, Chris, why
00:32:55.509 --> 00:32:57.250
don't you talk to our listeners about the Ukraine
00:32:57.250 --> 00:32:59.710
military report and particularly the very lengthy
00:32:59.710 --> 00:33:03.960
Yevgeny Popov story this week from Kursk. Yeah,
00:33:04.380 --> 00:33:08.680
so we see Yevgeny Popov has firmly taken over
00:33:08.680 --> 00:33:12.559
Vesti Nidele for the first time. They say it
00:33:12.559 --> 00:33:15.759
used to be he was on Vesti. Now he's on Vesti
00:33:15.759 --> 00:33:19.019
Nidele. And they show him the picture. They show
00:33:19.019 --> 00:33:24.319
him first and Kisilov second. You know, if anyone
00:33:24.319 --> 00:33:26.400
who's worked, you know, in the administration
00:33:26.400 --> 00:33:29.140
knows how seriously people take these pictures
00:33:29.140 --> 00:33:31.960
and who's ranked first and second. And we see
00:33:31.960 --> 00:33:36.940
this, this is going, the vesti, the news is going
00:33:36.940 --> 00:33:41.200
to be focused on the war. The war is going to
00:33:41.200 --> 00:33:44.460
start everything and stop, you know, the news.
00:33:44.640 --> 00:33:47.960
It's going to be war, war, war. And, you know,
00:33:47.960 --> 00:33:51.359
Iran's out, Cuba's out, everything else is gone.
00:33:51.680 --> 00:33:55.720
The Vestini Jelly, it starts actually the announcement
00:33:55.720 --> 00:33:58.960
with their so -called success of shooting down
00:33:58.960 --> 00:34:03.440
a Ukrainian Flamingo rocket, supposedly headed
00:34:03.440 --> 00:34:06.400
into Russia. A cruise missile. Yes, cruise missile.
00:34:06.539 --> 00:34:09.639
Yes. And then the negotiations, you know, it's
00:34:09.639 --> 00:34:13.000
very significant. And so we see Popov, you know,
00:34:13.000 --> 00:34:17.159
he's in his fatigues. He's out there. We see
00:34:17.159 --> 00:34:19.900
him here on the side. He looks a lot younger,
00:34:20.000 --> 00:34:23.820
of course, than Kisilov. And he's there at Kursk.
00:34:23.920 --> 00:34:27.519
At least my take is this is for Russians an unequivocal
00:34:27.519 --> 00:34:31.260
success. You know, they can say, you know, truthfully
00:34:31.260 --> 00:34:34.849
that Russia was mother Russia was invaded. proper
00:34:34.849 --> 00:34:38.710
Russian territory, and we freed Russia. So it's
00:34:38.710 --> 00:34:40.769
part of also this campaign, you know, political
00:34:40.769 --> 00:34:43.329
campaigns that are going on. Just to remind our
00:34:43.329 --> 00:34:46.170
listeners that the liberation of Kursk took place
00:34:46.170 --> 00:34:49.250
two years ago in 2024. But I absolutely agree
00:34:49.250 --> 00:34:51.730
with you that presenting it in the context of
00:34:51.730 --> 00:34:54.389
the political campaign and the success of the...
00:34:54.829 --> 00:34:57.989
Special military operation. We see the people,
00:34:58.130 --> 00:35:01.190
the common people, they're so enclosed, you know,
00:35:01.190 --> 00:35:04.750
they realize how bad Ukraine was. The Zverstva,
00:35:04.849 --> 00:35:07.889
these Ukrainians, they were animals. They show,
00:35:07.929 --> 00:35:11.380
you know, these... The scribblings, these animals,
00:35:11.659 --> 00:35:14.219
the Ukrainians. The 250 -day occupation. Yes,
00:35:14.239 --> 00:35:16.760
yeah. And so now they're free and they realize,
00:35:17.000 --> 00:35:20.579
you know, now how right Putin was. The common
00:35:20.579 --> 00:35:23.619
people, they're sewing military clothes, you
00:35:23.619 --> 00:35:25.900
know, for the front. And they show, you know,
00:35:25.900 --> 00:35:29.380
the common people. And even they show, it's very
00:35:29.380 --> 00:35:32.400
interesting, they show officials, Kremlin officials.
00:35:33.360 --> 00:35:35.920
out there in the field you know everything for
00:35:35.920 --> 00:35:39.880
the front uh in this uh bars uh this uh russian
00:35:39.880 --> 00:35:42.199
uh you know kind of the rich russians that can
00:35:42.199 --> 00:35:45.219
go in this bars unit and they sit and they shoot
00:35:45.219 --> 00:35:49.579
down sort of a volunteer force yeah uh how successful
00:35:49.579 --> 00:35:52.059
they're shooting down the drones is uh seems
00:35:52.059 --> 00:35:54.559
questionable but and then of course you know
00:35:54.559 --> 00:35:57.599
the gasoline right doesn't it yeah yeah their
00:35:57.599 --> 00:36:01.079
gasoline prices are all normal everything's gone
00:36:01.079 --> 00:36:04.550
back to no lines Yeah, I think there's some truth
00:36:04.550 --> 00:36:07.010
in that. They've had some success, but I don't
00:36:07.010 --> 00:36:09.110
think everything's just... Yeah, the lines, you
00:36:09.110 --> 00:36:11.650
know, they show Popov in line. He said, yeah,
00:36:11.670 --> 00:36:13.650
there was a line, of course, but now it's gone.
00:36:13.949 --> 00:36:17.150
And then, of course, they show this very interesting
00:36:17.150 --> 00:36:19.570
figure, Hinstein. Once Popov got into the line,
00:36:19.630 --> 00:36:22.289
the line was gone, right? Yeah, yeah, the line
00:36:22.289 --> 00:36:27.869
was gone. Hinstein, who's the new mayor of Kursk,
00:36:27.929 --> 00:36:30.989
the political leader of Kursk, he says that,
00:36:31.010 --> 00:36:33.050
you know, Russians under... understand, you know,
00:36:33.050 --> 00:36:35.369
how to defend themselves at the genetic level.
00:36:35.809 --> 00:36:38.949
But of course, Einstein, he was a famous Jewish,
00:36:39.469 --> 00:36:42.719
of course. famous, notorious figure from the
00:36:42.719 --> 00:36:45.039
90s, you know, involved in these informational
00:36:45.039 --> 00:36:49.039
wars. And again, this, to me, this shows how
00:36:49.039 --> 00:36:51.860
much the Kremlin wants to control nationalism.
00:36:51.900 --> 00:36:55.239
When you see a nationalistic phrase uttered,
00:36:55.239 --> 00:36:59.119
it's almost always by an ethnic Jew. I don't
00:36:59.119 --> 00:37:00.860
think this is by chance. Of course, it's the
00:37:00.860 --> 00:37:05.639
Solovyov program. This shows how much they stage
00:37:05.639 --> 00:37:09.280
manage. these things and how they do not want
00:37:09.280 --> 00:37:13.940
any ethnic, Russian ethnic nationalism. That's
00:37:13.940 --> 00:37:16.559
all buried. And then, of course, what's very
00:37:16.559 --> 00:37:19.000
interesting, they show no frontline reports.
00:37:19.380 --> 00:37:21.960
It was just a few, you know, just a week ago,
00:37:22.139 --> 00:37:24.619
they're having all successes on the frontline
00:37:24.619 --> 00:37:29.039
and storming the last fortress cities, Krematorsk,
00:37:29.039 --> 00:37:32.780
and suddenly that's gone. We don't know. There's
00:37:32.780 --> 00:37:36.630
no frontline movement at all or no report. And
00:37:36.630 --> 00:37:40.869
instead, it's all the Russians are so successful
00:37:40.869 --> 00:37:44.070
shooting the missiles and the drones at Ukraine.
00:37:44.329 --> 00:37:46.210
Of course, there's not going to be any casualties.
00:37:47.039 --> 00:37:49.260
There's no casualties. You know, we're just shooting
00:37:49.260 --> 00:37:52.300
these missiles, no casualties. And of course,
00:37:52.300 --> 00:37:56.179
they focus on this assassination attempt of Alexander
00:37:56.179 --> 00:38:00.460
Pokhlad, who's acting head of the security services
00:38:00.460 --> 00:38:02.199
in Ukraine. So, I mean, this would have been
00:38:02.199 --> 00:38:05.280
the very center of Kiev, very close to where
00:38:05.280 --> 00:38:07.920
Witkow arrived. I don't think that's by chance.
00:38:08.199 --> 00:38:11.480
And then a very interesting, they show bombing
00:38:11.480 --> 00:38:16.289
the metal factories of Rinat Akhmetov. very powerful
00:38:16.289 --> 00:38:18.369
oligarch. Yeah, they've been doing that for the
00:38:18.369 --> 00:38:21.000
last several weeks, haven't they? Yeah, it sponsors
00:38:21.000 --> 00:38:26.019
a lot of U .S. mouthpieces, U .S. academics who
00:38:26.019 --> 00:38:28.960
take money from Akhmetov and then he's running.
00:38:29.219 --> 00:38:32.760
Akhmetov is now sponsoring the Azov battalions.
00:38:32.800 --> 00:38:35.900
And so it's very interesting. It seems like the
00:38:35.900 --> 00:38:38.880
Kremlin, maybe they've learned a lesson and they're
00:38:38.880 --> 00:38:42.780
trying to use these strikes now not to terrorize
00:38:42.780 --> 00:38:45.880
the Ukrainians, which has backfired, but now
00:38:45.880 --> 00:38:49.550
to more targeted to try to shift. the political
00:38:49.550 --> 00:38:53.030
balance in Ukraine. We'll see. They have their
00:38:53.030 --> 00:38:56.530
work cut out for them. If I could end here, Andy,
00:38:56.769 --> 00:39:02.550
with Igor Strelkov, one of our favorites on the
00:39:02.550 --> 00:39:05.969
show, who's locked away. He makes a very interesting
00:39:05.969 --> 00:39:10.679
point. He says, you know, Vesti, the propagandon,
00:39:10.679 --> 00:39:13.199
these propagandists, our propagandists who he
00:39:13.199 --> 00:39:15.880
hates, you know, the many points out are Jews.
00:39:16.059 --> 00:39:19.400
He's an anti -Semite for sure. They say the Russian
00:39:19.400 --> 00:39:22.599
news says that Zelensky is a clown, a theater
00:39:22.599 --> 00:39:26.280
clown. But how come everything he says he does?
00:39:26.599 --> 00:39:29.099
He says they're going to have flamingo rockets
00:39:29.099 --> 00:39:32.099
and they have the flamingo rockets. Where Putin
00:39:32.099 --> 00:39:35.420
announces things, the Armat tank, and then he
00:39:35.420 --> 00:39:38.320
never follows through. And then, very interesting,
00:39:38.440 --> 00:39:43.219
he says, the Americans, Radcliffe, Witkoff, they
00:39:43.219 --> 00:39:47.380
say we'll have no drone strikes on Moscow, and
00:39:47.380 --> 00:39:50.400
there are no drone strikes on Moscow. The Americans
00:39:50.400 --> 00:39:55.340
control our skies. I'm embarrassed as a Russian.
00:39:55.599 --> 00:39:59.219
I imagine there are many Russians who agree with
00:39:59.219 --> 00:40:02.300
Strelkov and not with the Vesti interpretation.
00:40:03.139 --> 00:40:07.219
Yeah. Just on Popov, since he came on summer
00:40:07.219 --> 00:40:10.980
vacation in middle of July and was running the
00:40:10.980 --> 00:40:13.960
show, there was a big change in that they were,
00:40:14.139 --> 00:40:17.059
Kislyov, well, actually, in many shows for a
00:40:17.059 --> 00:40:18.800
couple of months or so, wasn't saying much at
00:40:18.800 --> 00:40:21.460
all about the special military operation. And
00:40:21.460 --> 00:40:23.639
suddenly the special military operation was up
00:40:23.639 --> 00:40:26.840
front and first and foremost with Popov on Kislyov's
00:40:26.840 --> 00:40:29.480
vacation. And that's, of course, continued now
00:40:29.480 --> 00:40:31.719
in the first two weeks that he has his show.
00:40:32.480 --> 00:40:35.079
And he's done now in two weeks in a row. Last
00:40:35.079 --> 00:40:38.480
week, it was in Donetsk. And this week, it was
00:40:38.480 --> 00:40:42.260
in Kursk Oblast in Russia. These on -site lengthy
00:40:42.260 --> 00:40:46.820
local reports. And yeah, where he is, he's vigorous.
00:40:46.860 --> 00:40:50.579
He's an athletic looking guy. And to me, actually,
00:40:50.619 --> 00:40:52.480
I felt, especially this week, he looked a lot
00:40:52.480 --> 00:40:55.300
more comfortable in his own skin. He's especially
00:40:55.300 --> 00:40:58.119
comfortable in his own skin on these local reports.
00:40:58.400 --> 00:41:01.300
He's pretty clever at how he puts them together.
00:41:01.710 --> 00:41:03.309
The other thing I noticed this week, Chris, is
00:41:03.309 --> 00:41:05.929
that the broadcast itself of Destiny of Jelly,
00:41:06.010 --> 00:41:07.909
it was only an hour and 50 minutes. Okay, only
00:41:07.909 --> 00:41:10.429
an hour and 50 minutes. Well, usually with Kisses
00:41:10.429 --> 00:41:12.690
Off, it was more like two hours, two hours, 30
00:41:12.690 --> 00:41:15.690
minutes. He was given a lot of rope. All right,
00:41:15.690 --> 00:41:19.070
let's continue moving on. We talked earlier that
00:41:19.070 --> 00:41:22.809
it is elections in Russia. They're way less interesting
00:41:22.809 --> 00:41:25.670
than in Germany this month, but they do take
00:41:25.670 --> 00:41:28.449
place now in less than two weeks on Sunday, September
00:41:28.449 --> 00:41:31.670
20th. In a way, Chris, I kind of view this entire
00:41:31.670 --> 00:41:34.889
broadcast of V .S. Diagelli as an infomercial
00:41:34.889 --> 00:41:38.190
for the elections. Putin everywhere doing everything,
00:41:38.489 --> 00:41:41.170
signing more stuff, pressing the horn button
00:41:41.170 --> 00:41:44.130
on the new fish trawler in Primorsky Krai, pressing
00:41:44.130 --> 00:41:47.670
the button to start the new metro line in Moscow,
00:41:47.769 --> 00:41:50.670
launching a new oil tanker in the Arctic, etc.
00:41:51.550 --> 00:41:54.329
Now, the election report itself is pretty underwhelming,
00:41:54.349 --> 00:41:57.010
as usual. It starts with Putin meeting with the
00:41:57.010 --> 00:42:01.079
five leaders of United Russia. Two long -timers
00:42:01.079 --> 00:42:05.820
or familiar faces, Sergei Lavrov, Minister of
00:42:05.820 --> 00:42:08.760
Foreign Affairs, and Sergei Sabyanin, Mayor of
00:42:08.760 --> 00:42:12.440
Moscow. And then three relatively newer faces,
00:42:12.760 --> 00:42:17.010
Maria Bielowa -Lavova. who is the human rights
00:42:17.010 --> 00:42:19.090
representative for the presidential administration,
00:42:19.510 --> 00:42:22.670
very attractive woman. Yevgeny Podubny, the hero
00:42:22.670 --> 00:42:25.250
of Russia, and then a military correspondent
00:42:25.250 --> 00:42:27.710
who's, you know, being featured a lot on the
00:42:27.710 --> 00:42:30.610
Russian news as a face of United Russia. And
00:42:30.610 --> 00:42:33.309
then this younger soldier, I think his name was
00:42:33.309 --> 00:42:36.010
Vladimir Golovey or Golovyov. And so there are
00:42:36.010 --> 00:42:38.750
three new faces and two veterans. And then there
00:42:38.750 --> 00:42:41.500
are three quick stories of... different parties.
00:42:41.659 --> 00:42:44.340
One is with Gennady Zyuganov and the Communist
00:42:44.340 --> 00:42:46.599
Party of the Russian Federation. He's there with
00:42:46.599 --> 00:42:49.480
a youth hockey team in Moscow Oblast, also with
00:42:49.480 --> 00:42:52.619
the Moscow Oblast governor, Andrei Vorobyov,
00:42:52.760 --> 00:42:55.099
an important figure in the Russian pantheon.
00:42:55.469 --> 00:42:58.110
And then they go to a liberal democratic party
00:42:58.110 --> 00:43:00.630
of Russia, former Zhirinovsky party, their leader
00:43:00.630 --> 00:43:04.210
Leonid Slutsky speaking in Perm in central Russia.
00:43:04.409 --> 00:43:08.349
And then this new people party meeting in Vladivostok.
00:43:08.389 --> 00:43:10.750
You know, it's interesting that the Just Russia
00:43:10.750 --> 00:43:13.969
party, one of the four parties in the Duma currently,
00:43:14.150 --> 00:43:16.590
and their leader Sergei Mironov are not featured
00:43:16.590 --> 00:43:18.809
at all. I'm wondering, does the Kremlin really
00:43:18.809 --> 00:43:21.469
want to see this totally fake party with their
00:43:21.469 --> 00:43:24.510
kind of quirky turquoise shirts, the Novi Ljudi,
00:43:24.570 --> 00:43:27.349
the new people, the new people's party to enter
00:43:27.349 --> 00:43:30.170
the Duma? Chris, I'm kind of guessing yes for
00:43:30.170 --> 00:43:32.750
now. But the last thing I want to discuss in
00:43:32.750 --> 00:43:36.289
this context is Dien Gorda, the anniversary of
00:43:36.289 --> 00:43:39.349
the founding of Moscow, City Day in Moscow, marking
00:43:39.349 --> 00:43:42.090
its birthday. Now, Moscow was founded in 1147,
00:43:42.090 --> 00:43:43.929
but they actually don't, I don't think they mentioned
00:43:43.929 --> 00:43:46.300
the date in the Vesti report. I think they're
00:43:46.300 --> 00:43:48.840
sort of implying that Moscow is probably a lot
00:43:48.840 --> 00:43:50.639
older than that as part of the thousand -year
00:43:50.639 --> 00:43:53.900
history instead of the fact that it was, you
00:43:53.900 --> 00:43:55.739
know, founded two and a half centuries after
00:43:55.739 --> 00:43:58.599
Kiev. But it's not mentioned. Now, so Moscow
00:43:58.599 --> 00:44:01.920
is repeatedly described as the Luchigored Mira.
00:44:02.250 --> 00:44:05.110
Luchigore Zemli, I mean, the best city on the
00:44:05.110 --> 00:44:07.829
planet, the best city in the world. Now, Putin
00:44:07.829 --> 00:44:11.469
and Moscow Mayor Semyonin are arm in arm. There
00:44:11.469 --> 00:44:14.150
is a new metro line and five new station and
00:44:14.150 --> 00:44:17.150
Putin launches the new line by pulling a lever
00:44:17.150 --> 00:44:20.809
like the Wizard of Oz. And he says, let's go.
00:44:21.469 --> 00:44:25.179
The metro cars go. There's a new amusement park
00:44:25.179 --> 00:44:30.539
that's referred to as Moscow's Disneyland. So,
00:44:30.719 --> 00:44:32.820
you know, I guess the U .S. for the moment is
00:44:32.820 --> 00:44:35.179
investing in Jelly's good graces that they can
00:44:35.179 --> 00:44:37.559
refer to Disneyland. As a side note, I noticed
00:44:37.559 --> 00:44:39.440
a golf course next to the river in the region
00:44:39.440 --> 00:44:42.239
as well. Note, there are not a lot in Moscow.
00:44:42.360 --> 00:44:45.199
In 2003, when I arrived to run the Carnegie Moscow
00:44:45.199 --> 00:44:47.440
Center, there was one, the Moscow Country Club.
00:44:47.539 --> 00:44:49.760
I was a member. I spent a lot of time out there.
00:44:50.039 --> 00:44:52.280
Actually, there were a lot of Korean and Japanese
00:44:52.280 --> 00:44:55.400
members as well. Not surprising. And also recall
00:44:55.400 --> 00:45:00.440
City Day, oh my God, in Moscow that year, 2003
00:45:00.440 --> 00:45:03.420
with my kids and wife. Let me just say, I won't
00:45:03.420 --> 00:45:05.320
go into the details of this story because it's
00:45:05.320 --> 00:45:07.539
a little bit grisly. Moscow has come a long way
00:45:07.539 --> 00:45:10.340
in 23 years and Sabyanin has done a pretty remarkable
00:45:10.340 --> 00:45:13.179
job developing the city. And if Putin were to
00:45:13.179 --> 00:45:15.900
get run over by a bus tomorrow or suddenly get
00:45:15.900 --> 00:45:18.510
out of... Maybe Sabyanin would be my candidate
00:45:18.510 --> 00:45:20.650
for a near -term replacement, although he is
00:45:20.650 --> 00:45:23.389
too old. He's Putin's age. So it would be a stopgap
00:45:23.389 --> 00:45:26.389
if it were to happen. And just to be clear, I
00:45:26.389 --> 00:45:28.190
do not expect this to happen. I'm not predicting
00:45:28.190 --> 00:45:30.010
this to happen. I got in trouble once before,
00:45:30.170 --> 00:45:33.670
almost 20 years ago. So I'm making no prediction
00:45:33.670 --> 00:45:36.829
here. All right. Chris, your take on the elections.
00:45:37.719 --> 00:45:41.719
Yeah, very interesting on Sabyanin. He took over
00:45:41.719 --> 00:45:46.000
from Mayor Yuri Lushkoth, who had a huge media
00:45:46.000 --> 00:45:49.300
empire. And Sabyanin is very interesting. He's
00:45:49.300 --> 00:45:52.519
one of the few figures who has his own kind of
00:45:52.519 --> 00:45:55.980
independent media complex. And he always inserts
00:45:55.980 --> 00:45:59.559
himself into the Vesti News. He's always very
00:45:59.559 --> 00:46:01.920
favorably covered, you know, one of the few that
00:46:01.920 --> 00:46:05.400
has a kind of personality cult. He's very presentable.
00:46:05.880 --> 00:46:08.659
He's he definitely something happened to Putin.
00:46:08.860 --> 00:46:11.659
He'd be in the running for sure. But one thing
00:46:11.659 --> 00:46:13.619
I've learned about is, of course, he has a lot
00:46:13.619 --> 00:46:16.900
of enemies. People are very upset. Of course,
00:46:16.900 --> 00:46:19.900
they're cold that he's partying. A lot of envy
00:46:19.900 --> 00:46:23.199
of Moscow, right? Yeah, well, we're fighting
00:46:23.199 --> 00:46:27.400
in the trenches. And then I would warn, you remember
00:46:27.400 --> 00:46:31.159
this very well, Andy, Yuri Lushkov was the man,
00:46:31.179 --> 00:46:35.099
you know, he seemed unbeatable in 1999. And he
00:46:35.099 --> 00:46:37.460
was set to become president. And then, you know,
00:46:37.480 --> 00:46:40.500
everything fell apart. This was partly to do
00:46:40.500 --> 00:46:43.099
with Russians. Most Russians, they hate Moscow.
00:46:44.159 --> 00:46:46.699
They hate Moscow, and that's going to be an impediment.
00:46:48.219 --> 00:46:50.199
Lushkov was viewed as being extremely corrupt.
00:46:50.400 --> 00:46:53.639
You know, his wife was one of the wealthiest
00:46:53.639 --> 00:46:56.019
people in the country. So, yeah, I agree. He
00:46:56.019 --> 00:46:57.960
had a lot of things going against him. And I
00:46:57.960 --> 00:47:01.400
don't think he was adequately loyal to Boris
00:47:01.400 --> 00:47:03.679
Yeltsin. Of course, these reports, they seem
00:47:03.679 --> 00:47:07.639
silly, but I take them very seriously. These
00:47:07.639 --> 00:47:10.340
politics, one, Putin, that's very important.
00:47:10.579 --> 00:47:13.260
These elections are crucial for Putin, for his
00:47:13.260 --> 00:47:16.559
self -image. You know, he wants a mandate. Next,
00:47:16.739 --> 00:47:20.039
there's a lot of internal polling that's very
00:47:20.039 --> 00:47:23.880
accurate. The polls we see are not accurate at
00:47:23.880 --> 00:47:26.599
all. You know, I just kind of nonsense. The internal
00:47:26.599 --> 00:47:30.179
polls are highly accurate. They take this very
00:47:30.179 --> 00:47:32.679
seriously. And we've seen throughout the Putin
00:47:32.679 --> 00:47:35.219
reign, he's been very successful at manipulating
00:47:35.219 --> 00:47:39.719
the internal politics. What I know is that the
00:47:39.719 --> 00:47:42.800
rumor was that Anna Zyvalova was supposed to
00:47:42.800 --> 00:47:46.280
kind of take the reins of United Russia. That's
00:47:46.280 --> 00:47:50.300
not happened. She's faded, perhaps because she's
00:47:50.380 --> 00:47:53.360
unpopular. We don't know exactly, but she's faded
00:47:53.360 --> 00:47:55.659
in the back. She's still a key player in the
00:47:55.659 --> 00:47:58.079
background, but we don't see her much. Definitely
00:47:58.079 --> 00:48:01.039
involved in politics. Not quite a rising frontrunner
00:48:01.039 --> 00:48:03.780
as she appeared to be two years ago when we wrote
00:48:03.780 --> 00:48:06.679
about her. Yes, yeah. And then what we do see
00:48:06.679 --> 00:48:10.699
is Yevgeny Padubny, the war correspondent, Wounded
00:48:10.699 --> 00:48:15.519
He -Man, and then Sergei Lavrov. So I bet the
00:48:15.519 --> 00:48:18.400
polls are showing these are the two popular figures.
00:48:18.960 --> 00:48:22.340
It's interesting that Lavrov, he does come across
00:48:22.340 --> 00:48:26.079
as a stalwart defender of Russian interests as
00:48:26.079 --> 00:48:28.699
they are defined by Vladimir Putin. Yeah, I think
00:48:28.699 --> 00:48:30.940
he's just, he's articulate. He's very articulate.
00:48:31.219 --> 00:48:34.260
He must be popular. It's interesting, Shagoo
00:48:34.260 --> 00:48:37.079
has just disappeared, who used to be the front
00:48:37.079 --> 00:48:41.039
man. This is how United Russia in 1999, Shagoo
00:48:41.039 --> 00:48:44.380
was ahead of Putin. He was very popular where,
00:48:44.500 --> 00:48:48.360
you know, now he's a faded figure. Of course,
00:48:48.360 --> 00:48:50.380
yeah, the elections, they must be showing that
00:48:50.380 --> 00:48:53.559
the most popular figure is Putin and everything
00:48:53.559 --> 00:48:57.360
revolves around Putin. Another interesting thing
00:48:57.360 --> 00:49:00.920
is there's the party Rodina, the nationalist
00:49:00.920 --> 00:49:04.599
party, Dmitry Rogozin. They're still, they're
00:49:04.599 --> 00:49:06.460
in the play. They're the ones who knocked out
00:49:06.460 --> 00:49:09.659
Yabloka, the liberals, but they're not covered
00:49:09.659 --> 00:49:11.840
at all on this. I mean, they're just completely
00:49:11.840 --> 00:49:15.869
banned. And you just don't exist. And so what
00:49:15.869 --> 00:49:18.590
this shows me is if there were fair and free
00:49:18.590 --> 00:49:22.329
elections, I bet Rodina would win. I bet they're
00:49:22.329 --> 00:49:26.050
the most popular. I think the problem for Rodina,
00:49:26.090 --> 00:49:28.469
and this goes back to, you know, the parliamentary
00:49:28.469 --> 00:49:31.849
elections in 2003 when they first emerged, is
00:49:31.849 --> 00:49:34.670
that Nargozin is a charismatic guy. And he's
00:49:34.670 --> 00:49:37.610
smart. And I think that has probably undermined
00:49:37.610 --> 00:49:40.389
him in the eyes of the political technologists
00:49:40.389 --> 00:49:43.820
of Russia's managed democracy. I bet if there
00:49:43.820 --> 00:49:46.960
were open elections, they would come out ahead.
00:49:47.199 --> 00:49:50.360
That's my bet, judging from what. Because they're
00:49:50.360 --> 00:49:53.300
too popular to ban outright. They aren't throwing
00:49:53.300 --> 00:49:57.460
these people in prison, like Yabloka. Yabloka
00:49:57.460 --> 00:50:00.320
is just unpopular. But they don't show on Vesti,
00:50:00.380 --> 00:50:02.840
so they don't get too popular. And then with
00:50:02.840 --> 00:50:04.739
these elections, of course, they seem silly.
00:50:04.900 --> 00:50:07.679
But these positions are very, I met several of
00:50:07.679 --> 00:50:10.480
these Russian politicians. They're very important.
00:50:10.619 --> 00:50:13.860
This is the money. is very lucrative and they're
00:50:13.860 --> 00:50:17.739
taken very seriously. This is what the new people
00:50:17.739 --> 00:50:22.840
are speaking to. Yeah, yeah. Sort of as a fake
00:50:22.840 --> 00:50:25.780
liberal party. Yeah, so it's a way to get people
00:50:25.780 --> 00:50:30.119
to forget about Yabloka. But they do have some,
00:50:30.219 --> 00:50:33.699
this Devon Colf, he does have some Biden messages,
00:50:33.920 --> 00:50:36.019
you know, that don't play about the internet
00:50:36.019 --> 00:50:39.920
outages and helping small businesses. And then
00:50:39.920 --> 00:50:43.000
I agree, this Mironov, the old nationalist, the
00:50:43.000 --> 00:50:45.400
one who was supposed to kind of take down Rodin
00:50:45.400 --> 00:50:49.079
or balance it out, he's faded completely. He's
00:50:49.079 --> 00:50:52.260
gone. It is long time Zyuganov. We see what a
00:50:52.260 --> 00:50:55.659
crafty inside player he is. I mean, he's been
00:50:55.659 --> 00:50:59.920
around since the early 90s and he retains a political
00:50:59.920 --> 00:51:02.619
base that the Kremlin just cannot shake. It's
00:51:02.619 --> 00:51:05.659
been for years. This is under Yeltsin. They tried
00:51:05.659 --> 00:51:08.800
to get rid of Zyuganov and he has stayed the
00:51:08.800 --> 00:51:11.900
longest lasting political figure in Russia. Well,
00:51:11.940 --> 00:51:14.800
you know, and if there actually were a free and
00:51:14.800 --> 00:51:18.519
fair election back in 1996. I think likely Gennady
00:51:18.519 --> 00:51:20.960
Zyuganov would have defeated Boris Yeltsin, but
00:51:20.960 --> 00:51:24.079
that was not allowed to happen. I was there.
00:51:24.199 --> 00:51:27.579
I strongly feel that that would have been the
00:51:27.579 --> 00:51:31.079
best outcome to have Zyuganov win. We would have
00:51:31.079 --> 00:51:33.880
had a completely different situation. Yes, I
00:51:33.880 --> 00:51:37.800
don't disagree. It deserves a longer conversation,
00:51:38.000 --> 00:51:40.369
which we don't have time for now. Very interesting
00:51:40.369 --> 00:51:44.690
for Kremlin watchers is recently Ksenia Sobchak,
00:51:44.929 --> 00:51:48.269
the nominal liberal, her emails were hacked.
00:51:48.469 --> 00:51:50.289
You know, some very, you know, strange things
00:51:50.289 --> 00:51:52.849
came out. And I think this is, again, a kind
00:51:52.849 --> 00:51:55.489
of way to knock out these figures that this is
00:51:55.489 --> 00:51:58.050
connected with the election. Most likely, yes.
00:51:58.309 --> 00:52:01.269
OK, quickly, Chris, one thing we didn't really
00:52:01.269 --> 00:52:03.769
talk about are U .S.-Russian relations and, of
00:52:03.769 --> 00:52:06.090
course, the Kushner -Witkoff visit. But it didn't
00:52:06.090 --> 00:52:07.510
look like much came out of that. But why don't
00:52:07.510 --> 00:52:08.909
you say a couple of things for our listeners?
00:52:08.940 --> 00:52:11.340
before we get to the, in Kaliningrad, before
00:52:11.340 --> 00:52:14.019
we get to dogs that do not bark. This was the
00:52:14.019 --> 00:52:17.460
feature of the Russian news, was, of course,
00:52:17.539 --> 00:52:20.880
Kuchner and Witkoff coming to Moscow. But they
00:52:20.880 --> 00:52:23.719
definitely, the first thing they said was, prochem
00:52:23.719 --> 00:52:26.219
bezaluzi, you know, by the way, where we don't
00:52:26.219 --> 00:52:29.679
have any illusions about the tricks of the Americans.
00:52:30.239 --> 00:52:32.920
And the way they showed it, of course, is, again,
00:52:33.039 --> 00:52:37.539
Putin is a master of geopolitical intrigues.
00:52:37.869 --> 00:52:41.610
He knows how to fool the Americans. We saw Ushakov
00:52:41.610 --> 00:52:45.510
saying, we told the Kushner and Witkoff about
00:52:45.510 --> 00:52:48.610
our real achievements of the military. And then
00:52:48.610 --> 00:52:51.530
they show, you know, very crafty Putin meeting
00:52:51.530 --> 00:52:54.469
them in the so -called Krasnaya Gostinitsa in
00:52:54.469 --> 00:52:58.130
the red, this red, this gaudy red room that,
00:52:58.170 --> 00:53:00.230
of course, it looked like a Las Vegas casino
00:53:00.230 --> 00:53:03.590
table. I agree with you. And then he's at this
00:53:03.590 --> 00:53:06.769
small, like, poker table. And this is, of course,
00:53:06.769 --> 00:53:10.349
this shows Putin again. He wants to be in control.
00:53:10.710 --> 00:53:14.670
He wants to be the alpha dog. And this is showing,
00:53:14.710 --> 00:53:17.909
you know, we're in control of things. This is
00:53:17.909 --> 00:53:20.550
played up in the West, again, as kind of, you
00:53:20.550 --> 00:53:24.429
know, Trump buffoonery. You know, the most anti
00:53:24.429 --> 00:53:28.030
-American things come from our own press. But
00:53:28.030 --> 00:53:31.269
behind the scenes, of course, in Kaliningrad,
00:53:31.409 --> 00:53:33.360
there's a... But there's a real serious military
00:53:33.360 --> 00:53:37.159
showdown. We have, you know, some some AWACS
00:53:37.159 --> 00:53:42.440
and jet fighters and NATO forces there. And the
00:53:42.440 --> 00:53:44.940
Baltic Russian Baltic fleet has been trying to
00:53:44.940 --> 00:53:47.500
counter that. So there's a real behind the scenes.
00:53:47.659 --> 00:53:50.559
There's a real showdown going on. And we see
00:53:50.559 --> 00:53:52.900
again, you know, Putin, he's not I'm sorry, Trump,
00:53:53.039 --> 00:53:55.940
our own President Trump. He has his he has his
00:53:55.940 --> 00:53:58.659
problems for sure. But I mean, he's not he's
00:53:58.659 --> 00:54:00.940
not the buffoon that he's that he's portrayed.
00:54:01.099 --> 00:54:03.880
with in the New York Times. We're not fooling
00:54:03.880 --> 00:54:06.840
around. Just to follow up on the casino, the
00:54:06.840 --> 00:54:11.000
Krasnaya Gostinitsa, the round table. You know,
00:54:11.000 --> 00:54:13.159
I think actually they basically set that up as
00:54:13.159 --> 00:54:15.579
kind of a joke that Putin is the guy that actually
00:54:15.579 --> 00:54:18.219
holds the Trump cards. It's not Trump who holds
00:54:18.219 --> 00:54:20.639
the Trump cards. It's Putin that holds the Trump
00:54:20.639 --> 00:54:22.920
cards. And so they threw out that like looking
00:54:22.920 --> 00:54:29.949
like a poker table. Send a message. Dmitry Kisilov,
00:54:29.949 --> 00:54:32.769
he has not gone away. This is typical for Putin.
00:54:32.849 --> 00:54:35.389
If you're loyal, you know, you still get the
00:54:35.389 --> 00:54:38.170
good things. And so as a SOP, you know, they
00:54:38.170 --> 00:54:41.170
gave him the show. It's 20 minutes. It's, I think,
00:54:41.170 --> 00:54:45.619
at 10, 10 p .m. Russia time. 20 minutes? He's
00:54:45.619 --> 00:54:48.119
gone down from two hours and 20 minutes to 20
00:54:48.119 --> 00:54:51.900
minutes. 20 minutes. And we see Kisilov, perhaps
00:54:51.900 --> 00:54:53.920
he's playing it up. I mean, he just, he's aged.
00:54:54.219 --> 00:54:55.679
I mean, he looks like this old, you know, dead,
00:54:55.900 --> 00:54:58.699
you know, the old, old grandpa. He kind of, he
00:54:58.699 --> 00:55:01.119
looks a little like a Gleb Pavlovsky, what I
00:55:01.119 --> 00:55:04.260
saw. You know, we see he plays up his culture.
00:55:04.940 --> 00:55:07.980
He's very cynical. It's hard to watch what he
00:55:07.980 --> 00:55:12.000
was talking about, but how we Russians love Odessa
00:55:12.000 --> 00:55:15.530
and Ukrainians hate Odessa. in the Russian culture,
00:55:15.690 --> 00:55:20.610
and we're saving Odessa from banderovizatia,
00:55:20.710 --> 00:55:25.670
this new word, neologism. Banderovizatia. But
00:55:25.670 --> 00:55:28.110
of course, I mean, what's going on there, you
00:55:28.110 --> 00:55:29.550
know, I'm supposed to have a publication there,
00:55:29.630 --> 00:55:32.969
and Odessa is kind of in contact a little with
00:55:32.969 --> 00:55:36.869
it. It is just gruesome and horrible, this blockade.
00:55:36.949 --> 00:55:39.949
I don't think the show is going to last too long,
00:55:40.369 --> 00:55:43.050
the Kisilov show. Well, let's get to the dogs
00:55:43.050 --> 00:55:45.320
that did not bark. What took place that we think
00:55:45.320 --> 00:55:47.360
is significant that Viesti is not talking about?
00:55:47.500 --> 00:55:50.059
Well, I had one earlier with the Moti comments
00:55:50.059 --> 00:55:53.260
about the Ukraine war. But Chris, mine this week
00:55:53.260 --> 00:55:55.159
is from your neck of the woods. The Wall Street
00:55:55.159 --> 00:55:57.559
Journal reported yesterday that North Korea launched
00:55:57.559 --> 00:56:00.239
what Kim Jong -un has described as a nuclear
00:56:00.239 --> 00:56:04.019
-capable vessel, the Kang Kong, named after a
00:56:04.019 --> 00:56:06.789
Korean war general, apparently. that just a year
00:56:06.789 --> 00:56:09.349
ago actually tipped over on what was supposed
00:56:09.349 --> 00:56:12.590
to be its maiden voyage. Very embarrassing. Apparently
00:56:12.590 --> 00:56:15.230
Kim Jong -un was furious about this, and I'm
00:56:15.230 --> 00:56:18.389
sure some heads literally did roll. But this
00:56:18.389 --> 00:56:21.789
new unveiling, it comes on the eve of, not coincidentally,
00:56:21.869 --> 00:56:25.010
the trilateral U .S.-Japan -South Korean annual
00:56:25.010 --> 00:56:28.550
naval exercises. And the ceremony featured Kim
00:56:28.550 --> 00:56:32.050
Jong -un and his sister on the deck of the ship.
00:56:32.110 --> 00:56:34.960
She's all dressed in white. It's kind of bizarre.
00:56:36.420 --> 00:56:39.800
Kim Jong -un claims North Korea will produce
00:56:39.800 --> 00:56:43.380
two such vessels a year. And the article hinted
00:56:43.380 --> 00:56:46.199
that Russians have been helping North Korea build
00:56:46.199 --> 00:56:48.920
up its Navy. But there was no report of this
00:56:48.920 --> 00:56:52.619
on VST News Daily or VST recently. This I just
00:56:52.619 --> 00:56:55.079
got from the Wall Street Journal today. Chris,
00:56:55.099 --> 00:56:58.059
over to you. Dasol Yoon is a great reporter.
00:56:58.480 --> 00:57:02.300
My own speculation here is that we noticed that.
00:57:03.389 --> 00:57:05.949
North Korea has been making a lot of successes
00:57:05.949 --> 00:57:10.789
in their navy at the same time Nikolai Patrushev
00:57:11.159 --> 00:57:14.920
right -hand man of Putin was so -called demoted
00:57:14.920 --> 00:57:19.159
and laughed at for, you know, heading the Navy
00:57:19.159 --> 00:57:22.300
stockpiles in the Baltics. And so I do wonder,
00:57:22.400 --> 00:57:26.500
of course, he's a KGB man, if he behind the scenes,
00:57:26.559 --> 00:57:29.519
he's playing, you know, playing a role in a lot
00:57:29.519 --> 00:57:32.320
of this. In terms of North Korea, it's very interesting.
00:57:32.519 --> 00:57:35.750
This shows Kim Jong -un how well he... thinks
00:57:35.750 --> 00:57:38.570
and plans things out. Of course, here in North
00:57:38.570 --> 00:57:41.849
Korea, there's been a big political change from
00:57:41.849 --> 00:57:45.489
the conservatives. We have the so -called Democrats,
00:57:46.010 --> 00:57:52.369
the Min Jutong, and their big pledge for decades
00:57:52.369 --> 00:57:57.219
has been to make not nuclear weapons. but nuclear
00:57:57.219 --> 00:58:00.099
submarines, nuclear submarines. This has been
00:58:00.099 --> 00:58:03.079
going on for over a decade. And I think this
00:58:03.079 --> 00:58:05.360
is North Korea kind of trolling them, saying,
00:58:05.480 --> 00:58:07.960
you know, look, we have our, we're matching you,
00:58:08.079 --> 00:58:11.239
right? You do this, we can do this. It plays
00:58:11.239 --> 00:58:15.980
a lot to South Korean internal politics. I hadn't
00:58:15.980 --> 00:58:18.500
really thought about this before, but it's perfectly
00:58:18.500 --> 00:58:20.739
plausible that Russia is playing a significant
00:58:20.739 --> 00:58:23.760
role in helping the North Koreans to improve
00:58:23.760 --> 00:58:26.360
their naval capabilities. And this is part of
00:58:26.360 --> 00:58:31.050
their alliance. It's something that... We need
00:58:31.050 --> 00:58:33.989
to take pretty seriously, maybe. I don't know.
00:58:34.090 --> 00:58:37.329
No, no, no. There's no question about that. You
00:58:37.329 --> 00:58:40.170
know, there's no question. And then this is part
00:58:40.170 --> 00:58:44.949
of Putin's asymmetrical responses. South Korea,
00:58:45.050 --> 00:58:49.050
of course, is a key supplier of shells to Ukraine.
00:58:49.250 --> 00:58:51.489
And they're saying, you know, look, you support
00:58:51.489 --> 00:58:53.949
Ukraine. Here's what we're going to do. North
00:58:53.949 --> 00:58:57.289
Korea has been a much bigger supporter of shells
00:58:57.289 --> 00:59:00.809
to Russia. At any rate, let's turn to your next,
00:59:00.909 --> 00:59:05.690
to your dog. I just had a few, two quick ones,
00:59:05.929 --> 00:59:11.949
Andy. So one is, this shows the Kremlin's skill
00:59:11.949 --> 00:59:17.170
at manipulating American opinion is at the same
00:59:17.170 --> 00:59:21.530
time the Witkopf -Kushner trip. to Moscow, Lavrov
00:59:21.530 --> 00:59:26.570
summoned these YouTube pundits, like Judge Andrew
00:59:26.570 --> 00:59:30.409
Napolitano, former Fox host, who's a very popular
00:59:30.409 --> 00:59:33.690
show. It's quite good, very provocative, huge
00:59:33.690 --> 00:59:36.849
viewership. And of course, Professor John Mearsheimer,
00:59:37.090 --> 00:59:40.909
who has a wide following, you know, people, when
00:59:40.909 --> 00:59:43.929
the camera's on, we don't like John Mearsheimer,
00:59:44.010 --> 00:59:46.050
or the camera's off, he's some guy that, you
00:59:46.050 --> 00:59:48.250
know, everyone agrees with. And one thing this
00:59:48.250 --> 00:59:52.000
shows me is... is just the skill the Kremlin
00:59:52.000 --> 00:59:56.059
has in manipulating Western opinion, these influence
00:59:56.059 --> 01:00:01.159
campaigns. I'm sorry to say, Andy, with us, we
01:00:01.159 --> 01:00:03.599
put a lot of effort into manipulating Western
01:00:03.599 --> 01:00:06.980
opinion, our own opinion, but we don't put any
01:00:06.980 --> 01:00:10.460
effort, it seems, into manipulating Russian opinion,
01:00:10.659 --> 01:00:14.280
the hearts and minds of Russians. America, my
01:00:14.280 --> 01:00:17.090
country, has no influence over... over Russian
01:00:17.090 --> 01:00:19.409
opinion at all. We're just gone. We don't, we
01:00:19.409 --> 01:00:22.349
don't work with influence. There's nothing, nothing.
01:00:22.690 --> 01:00:25.630
That's a longer discussion, but I would say that
01:00:25.630 --> 01:00:28.949
that has been a consistent weakness on our part,
01:00:29.010 --> 01:00:31.070
going back to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
01:00:31.849 --> 01:00:34.349
We were very effective during the Cold War in
01:00:34.349 --> 01:00:37.090
promoting American interests and the image of
01:00:37.090 --> 01:00:40.989
America, but we immediately got too wrapped up,
01:00:41.010 --> 01:00:44.670
in my view, in trying to influence domestic politics
01:00:44.670 --> 01:00:48.010
in Russia, supporting the liberal Westerners,
01:00:48.050 --> 01:00:50.650
and we've been paying for it ever since. Okay,
01:00:50.750 --> 01:00:53.630
so your last one before we sign off. Just a very
01:00:53.630 --> 01:00:56.650
quick one. This was posted on LinkedIn by Gordon
01:00:56.650 --> 01:01:00.599
Rowe, this movie. no one knows about from 1939,
01:01:01.000 --> 01:01:05.059
the strange death of Adolf Hitler. I guess it's
01:01:05.059 --> 01:01:09.539
based on a 1939 book about this body double.
01:01:10.139 --> 01:01:12.539
you know this body double that this uh there's
01:01:12.539 --> 01:01:16.079
a person who who uh can imitate uh hitler and
01:01:16.079 --> 01:01:18.539
becomes a double for hitler and is involved in
01:01:18.539 --> 01:01:21.400
all these schemes and supposedly hitler is killed
01:01:21.400 --> 01:01:24.559
and this guy is actually the viewer and uh you
01:01:24.559 --> 01:01:26.400
know it just seems like it's a forgot it's very
01:01:26.400 --> 01:01:28.460
hard you can't even find the movie anymore you
01:01:28.460 --> 01:01:30.860
just i've seen clips There's nothing about the
01:01:30.860 --> 01:01:33.199
movie. It's just completely erased from history.
01:01:33.460 --> 01:01:36.000
You know, I guess it's the dark corners of the
01:01:36.000 --> 01:01:38.360
Internet. You hear about the body double of Hitler
01:01:38.360 --> 01:01:41.260
and him escaping death and going to Argentina
01:01:41.260 --> 01:01:45.260
or something. But what I wonder is with us Kremlin
01:01:45.260 --> 01:01:48.179
watchers, we hear this all the time. You know,
01:01:48.179 --> 01:01:50.639
Putin's coughing. He must be dead. He must have
01:01:50.639 --> 01:01:53.800
a body double. This is all taken seriously. And
01:01:53.800 --> 01:01:56.739
I worry it's almost sometimes the basis of our
01:01:56.739 --> 01:02:00.280
policy. You know, we don't do. much militarily
01:02:00.280 --> 01:02:02.780
to shift the equation or just kind of hoping,
01:02:02.880 --> 01:02:07.039
you know, the body double will take over or something.
01:02:07.519 --> 01:02:10.940
It's very concerning. And it shows you the huge
01:02:10.940 --> 01:02:14.599
shift in how we used to conduct our wars and
01:02:14.599 --> 01:02:17.059
how we do them now. It's a great point. Actually,
01:02:17.139 --> 01:02:19.340
it really makes me want to see the movie, The
01:02:19.340 --> 01:02:22.079
Strange Death of Adolf Hitler. But I remember
01:02:22.079 --> 01:02:24.699
when we first met each other about two and a
01:02:24.699 --> 01:02:27.239
half years ago, and this notion that there were
01:02:27.239 --> 01:02:29.440
body doubles of Putin and that there were these
01:02:29.440 --> 01:02:32.760
fake videos of Putin out there, that Putin was
01:02:32.760 --> 01:02:35.949
actually already dead. And the body, the body.
01:02:36.010 --> 01:02:39.289
I mean, there were a lot of people in the United
01:02:39.289 --> 01:02:41.630
States and the Russia watching community that
01:02:41.630 --> 01:02:44.250
actually seemed to give some credence to that.
01:02:44.329 --> 01:02:46.030
And I just thought, well, we both thought it
01:02:46.030 --> 01:02:48.110
was ludicrous. And we wrote about it. These were
01:02:48.110 --> 01:02:51.920
published in major magazines. All right. It's
01:02:51.920 --> 01:02:54.239
time for us to wrap up. Chris, thanks again for
01:02:54.239 --> 01:02:57.239
a terrific session of Russia Decoded. Thanks
01:02:57.239 --> 01:02:59.719
very much to our audience, our listeners. We
01:02:59.719 --> 01:03:02.380
love to hear from you. You can reach us on LinkedIn.
01:03:02.380 --> 01:03:06.000
You can reach us at RussiaDecoded at CFTNI .org.
01:03:06.559 --> 01:03:08.519
And tell us what you like, tell us what you don't
01:03:08.519 --> 01:03:10.760
like, tell us what you would like to see more
01:03:10.760 --> 01:03:13.920
of. And finally, most importantly, we thank our
01:03:13.920 --> 01:03:16.480
producer, Jordan Henry, who's not actually in
01:03:16.480 --> 01:03:18.139
Washington, D .C. right now, but he's driving
01:03:18.139 --> 01:03:21.199
back from the beach to Delaware to Washington,
01:03:21.320 --> 01:03:23.900
D .C. But he's been good enough to host us tonight
01:03:23.900 --> 01:03:27.400
on Labor Day, on the holiday weekend, when there's
01:03:27.400 --> 01:03:29.980
a lot of other things going on. Thanks, everybody,
01:03:30.239 --> 01:03:34.119
and we look forward to seeing you next week.
01:03:34.360 --> 01:03:36.480
It's going to be an interesting week again. We're
01:03:36.480 --> 01:03:38.500
getting one week closer to the Russian elections,
01:03:38.760 --> 01:03:41.340
and they've got this big BRICS meeting. I mean,
01:03:41.360 --> 01:03:42.739
what the heck are they going to talk about in
01:03:42.739 --> 01:03:45.760
India? There's always some things that come up
01:03:45.760 --> 01:03:48.820
that are just unanticipated. So all the best.
01:03:48.920 --> 01:03:50.539
Bye -bye. Yeah, see you next week.