#117 Why Your Forecast Is Inaccurate (+ How to Fix It) – with Andy Smidmore, RevOps Leader (ex-Confluent, Cloudera, Docker, Ditto)

In this episode of the RevOps Lab, Janis sits down with Andy Smidmore — a 15-year RevOps and SalesOps veteran whose résumé reads like a tour of high-growth West Coast SaaS (Confluent, Cloudera, Docker, most recently Ditto). Andy is also the author of a popular LinkedIn article series on RevOps fundamentals, including the piece that anchors today's conversation: Forecasting Is a Trust Problem Before a Math Problem. Janis and Andy unpack why the magic forecast number leadership wants is just the surface, why broken sales stages quietly leak forecast accuracy, and why mixing deal reviews into your forecast call destroys the very trust your reps need to be honest with you.

We cover:

• Why forecasting is a trust problem first, a math problem second

• Why the "how much are you committing?" question on day one of a forecast call is the wrong starting point

• Building sales stages around the buyer's journey, not your selling process — and why misaligned stages are a leaking bucket

• The danger of performative deal progression and the false hope it creates for leadership

• Why deal reviews and forecast calls should be two separate motions

• "I'm not questioning you, I'm asking questions" — the subtle reframe that changes the whole room

• Crystal-clear definitions for pipeline vs. commit, kept short (5 bullets, not essays)

• What a true commit actually requires: technical sign-off, legal redlines, procurement engaged, stakeholder alignment

• Why a consistent week-in, week-out forecast format builds rep trust over time

• Treating forecasting as a team sport — and why punishing reps swings them toward concealment, not honesty

Links:

• Andy Smidmore on LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/andy-smidmore-3aab0556

• Andy's article series on RevOps & forecasting (LinkedIn)

• Janis Zech on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/janiszech/

• Philipp Stelzer on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/philippstelzer/

• WeFlow: https://www.weflow.ai/

• Join the RevOps Chat Community: https://www.weflow.ai/community

• Subscribe to the RevOps Letter: https://www.weflow.ai/revops-letter

• Book recommendations:

• Disrupted by Dan Lyons

• The Girl with Seven Names by Hyeonseo Lee

Chapters:

• (00:00) Intro & welcome to Andy

• (00:51) Andy's 15-year journey through Confluent, Cloudera, Docker, Ditto

• (03:08) Why forecasting is the topic — and the article that started it

• (04:03) Why every forecast framework is unique to its company

• (06:15) Intelligence tools haven't replaced the foundational framework

• (08:13) "How much are you committing?" — the surface-level forecast call

• (10:01) The top forecast process problems Andy keeps seeing

• (11:33) Sales stages built around the buyer journey, not the seller

• (12:24) The POC stage problem: what does "done" actually mean?

• (14:25) When poor stage definitions destroy trust between reps and leadership

• (15:43) Creating an open, honest forecast call environment

• (18:17) From gut-based reviews to data-backed conversations

• (20:22) Why deal reviews and forecast calls must be separate motions

• (23:25) "I'm not questioning you, I'm asking questions"

• (25:00) The cadence: clean pipeline Thursday, deal review Friday, forecast Monday

• (28:32) Building a clear forecasting methodology — pipeline vs. commit

• (31:34) What actually constitutes a commit deal

• (35:21) Closing thoughts: stages, enablement, cadence, culture

• (39:35) Book recommendations & close