WEBVTT
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Hi, this is Chico Resch.
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You are listening to the Let's Go Devils podcast on
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the Primetime Radio Network.
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Happy Devils Thursday.
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This is Game Day Live, coming to you live, live
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from American Whiskey. 51 Edison Place, across the street from
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Prudential Center, next to Championship Plaza. I'm your host, Sam Wu,
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here with an e-bub, an unlikely e-bub, emergency backup broadcaster.
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This is Big Kurt, who loves salads, by the way.
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He loves salads, by the way, the original salad here.
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as we're streaming live.
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On Facebook Live, YouTube Live, X Live, Twitch, and now
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on Instagram Live on the Let's Go Devils Network as
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the Devils take on the New York Rangers tonight at
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the Rock.
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First of four games.
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How are you, Kurt? I'm doing well, Sam. Thanks for
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having me.
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I've got to be honest. Thanks for having me. I
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also have to be honest. There's no salad that I
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have not been able to take down.
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I've got to be honest.
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Yeah, especially the one at my wedding when we actually,
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the best man speech stopped the entire wedding.
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My wedding and Mrs. Wu, just to give Kurt a salad.
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True story.
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That's right.
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True story. A big bowl of salad came out, but. Hello, everybody.
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Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you are.
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We've got the EBUB action here because Keith Cavanaugh is
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socializing right now. Keith Cavanaugh of Puckpedia. He is a
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good friend of the podcast. He'll talk a little analytics
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right now. But Devils-Rangers, the rivalry continues. And full disclosure,
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an unlikely EBUB. Kurt is a Rangers fan. I am.
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But he is a hockey fan first, a student of
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the game. So what's the atmosphere like here?
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I'll tell you. It's a great question, Sam. I've got
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to be honest with you. It's a great atmosphere. I'm
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really excited for the game tonight. I think the Rangers
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and Devils tonight are going to play a tight game.
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I don't think it's going to be a blowout. Although
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the Rangers are playing well, I feel like the last
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game that the Devils played against Detroit was a game
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that they moved the puck well, they played well. And
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I just feel like tonight's going to be one of
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those games where it's going to be a typical– New
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York-New Jersey rival, battle of the game, and it's going
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to be tight. I feel like it's going to be
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a 3-2, 4-3 type of game, one way or the other.
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I hope it's the other way, but who knows.
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Yeah, and you know what?
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I want to ask you, because you are a Rangers fan,
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about Shesterkin going down, but the Rangers are still playing well.
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Yeah, they are.
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They are playing well.
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Mike Sullivan's got this team really... I think it started
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even before last season, towards the end of the season.
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They started the job, the New York Rangers, but they're
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bringing young kids. Why are they doing well and why
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is their.
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Record showing that?
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Yeah, I think it's a great question.
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And I think it's a lot has to do with
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the young guys that are coming in.
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They're playing a faster game. They're playing connected.
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And their forecheck is something that we as Ranger fans
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have not seen.
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We have not seen this.
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It's an aggressive style of play, very similar to the
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way the Carolina Hurricanes play. Although it may not be
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as good, but it's very similar. And when you have
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young guys that are willing to prove themselves, willing to
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take a puck to make a play, take a hit
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to make a play, it changes the.
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Way that the game is played for the Rangers.
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And that's what we're doing right now, doing very small
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things that make a big difference.
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And that's good.
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Well, our guest is here. Keith Cavanaugh. I got your
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name right, finally. All right.
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This is Kurt.
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Meet Keith.
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Hey, Keith. How are you doing? Nice to meet you.
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Kurt is our e-bub, the emergency backup broadcaster that we just.
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Pull a fan out of the crowd. Vetted, of course.
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Yes.
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Yeah. Pretty much. Pretty much. So Kurt's joining in. Very knowledgeable.
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But also Keith is extremely knowledgeable because I've got a
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lot of questions for you. Because I was talking to
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Kevin from American Whiskey yesterday. who is, yeah, he is
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the partner at this wonderful establishment that allows us to
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do this podcast, by the way.
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Do you have, like, an idiot's guide to analytics?
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Because I'm the stubborn, dumb fan that just refuses to
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accept it. But now I'm, after Nick Folano actually, like,
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hitting my head with it, now I'm starting to be
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like Grandpa and be like, all right, all right, you
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can date my granddaughter. But what is analytics and what
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do you do all day?
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I want to know everything.
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So they can have, like they know when the goalie
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is square to the shot versus when the goalie is
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in motion and not square to the shot. So like
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that has a different impact on the goal that's scored.
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So there's so much that goes into it. I think
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for you, just trying to get into it, like keep
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it simple to start, right? Like just try to understand
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the basics of it. Like, And then high danger chances, right?
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You see a lot of that in the media. Every
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single analytics site qualifies or defines their high danger chances differently.
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So just understanding what their definition of that is to
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explain the information. But at the end of the day,
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hockey is hockey, right? They need to put the puck
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in the back of the net to beat the other team.
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Yeah, I mean, how do you balance the eye test
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and the analytics? I mean, you've played hockey for many years.
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You've coached.
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How do you make those decisions? Sometimes do you make
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judgment calls? You know, if you're analyzing data, if you're
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going to make decisions, or is it all data?
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There's context to everything, right? So you can look at
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a spreadsheet and it can tell you one thing, but
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there are reasons why that's happening that you can't tell
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from that spreadsheet. So that's why every single team has
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a big scouting department. They're not solely relying on the numbers.
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They're trying to make their analytics better because of the
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information that the scouts are giving them or player development
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is giving them. They're not trying to use that information
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as the end-all, be-all. They're trying to bake that information
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with these other minds who are on their staff who
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have a lot of wisdom in the sport. And they're
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trying to get to that point where you're blending the
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eye test and the analytics to really come to this
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metric or decision. And so I think that's the best
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way to do it. And Sonny's talked about this over
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and over again. It's how you aggregate the information. So
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you have the analytics, you have your scouting, you have
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your development, you have your coaching staff. You have a
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lot of people on staff that are going to help
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you make those decisions, and I think that's kind of
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the best way to do it.
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Well, I appreciate you explaining.
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That to me. It's just one piece of the pie,
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you know, Sam? It's just one piece.
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An important piece of this is when you talk about analytics, right? Like,
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there's a version of, like, the game, the in-game play, right?
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Analytics plays a huge part in the whole thing. But
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during game play... If one guy's not working and that
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guy's doing a good job analytically, quote-unquote.
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But if he's not going.
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If he's not going and you have a guy that's
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going over the last two, three, four, five games, maybe
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the coach makes a little bit of a change, puts
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that guy into a role where things are changing a
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little bit. Analytically, although one guy seems like he's doing
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a good job, you put this guy in the lineup
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or you put this guy on the power play or
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whatever that case is, and he starts to perform. That's
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an in-game decision that's made by a coach, which is
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really cool. Let me pull that out to an actual
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real devil situation. Anthony Mantha, on paper, looked like he'd
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be a perfect fit with Bratt and Jack. Those two
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guys are really good at speed, playmaking, entering the zone.
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And Mantha, over the last three years, has outperformed his
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expected goals in terms of finishing.
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So that line needed a finisher, right? They tried it
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for a few games. They tried it in the preseason.
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it didn't work. Right. And then Sheldon Keefe made a change.
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He brought Arseny Gritsuk up to that line and they
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looked really good in Detroit. So like, That's a situation
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where on paper, sometimes things look good one way, and
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then you just have to adapt, and I think that's
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what they did there.
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Yeah, I agree, and I think that's what defines a
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really good coach, where he's able to identify that situation
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and say, hey, this guy is not really going for us.
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Let's move this guy up. Let's make a little bit
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of a change, and if it starts to work, you've
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got to just go with it.
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Right.
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And analytics are great, but sometimes it just doesn't work out.
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And to your point, too, like when we talk about analytics, right,
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there's so many different aspects of hockey analytics can touch, right?
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A lot of teams are focused on, like, the performance
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science and, like, the health metrics. But then you also have, like,
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looking longer term for free agency trade acquisitions. You're looking
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at analytics for the NHL draft, all these prospects in
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different leagues. Like, that's a whole different kind of set
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of analytics. But then also the Devils hired someone this year,
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or they promoted someone, so now he's a coaching analyst.
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So now he might be focusing on the game by
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game and really trying to see who's going and making
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in-game adjustments. So there's so many ways to use the analytics.
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But at the end of the day, that word is
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kind of annoying because it's just information, right? It's just
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really information. That's a great point, yeah.
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And you know what's cool about the information is some
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guys play differently against other teams.
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Some guys just do better against other teams. Linus Olmark,
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for example. There you go. 9-1 against the Devils in
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his last 10 games. He was like a buck 50
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goals against the average 940 save percentage.
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Right.
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That guy does really good against the Devils. Right. There
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you go.
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And to my point, when you have a guy that
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just goes well against a certain team, sometimes you've got
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to ride that coat.
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Yep. Yeah.
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Well, because, again, I'm starting to... Come to grips, I
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gotta learn this. So that's why, and I really.
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Appreciate you being the analytics idiot that I am.
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I'm starting to- Analytics 101, baby.
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So I'm seeing all these memes out there, these infographics
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out there on social media.
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The JFresh, I say, player cards are the most popular, right?
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A lot of people are sharing those left and right.
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But I've seen some about the Devils so far on
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their 3-in-3 start. Again, I just read it real quick
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or whatever. It looks great.
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Are the Devils....
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For a lot of fans, it doesn't pass the eye test,
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but the analytics say one thing.
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I just wanted to see what your thoughts are on it.
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I think, as stupid as this sounds, I don't think
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much has changed year over year in terms of the
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Devils' main issue last year was finishing, right? They were
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not finishing goals that they probably should. This year, the
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same exact issue is happening right now. They're Expected goals
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is really strong. They're like a top three expected goals
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team across the entire NHL. I think they're number one
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in expected goals percentage, so the differential between expected goals for,
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expected goals against. So they're controlling play better than any
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team across the NHL, better than the Carolina Hurricanes, the
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Stanley Cup champions, better than anyone, right? The issue is
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they are not putting the puck in the net at
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the rate they should be. And obviously in Detroit on
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Monday or Tuesday, they were, right? They got five goals.
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They won in overtime. But then in that game in particular,
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the defense kind of let them down a little bit.
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There were some D-zone laps. Jake Allen was not 100%
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as good as he normally is. So it's just game
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by game. But I think generally speaking for the Devils,
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You've got to trust the process. We have to focus
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on not worrying about these small sample sizes. We're six
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games into an 84-game season.
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Oh, agreed.
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Every fan likes to get really worked up. Sonny made
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these moves over the offseason, not for the first few
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games of the season, but for the entirety of the
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season and for the playoffs. And so the team's 3-3.
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The Rangers are coming to town. This is a big,
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big game. The Rangers look incredible to start the year.
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They're 6-2 right now. A lot of guys going for them.
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00:11:53.929 --> 00:11:56.809
I mean, Alexi Lafreniere has finally found his stride, it
256
00:11:56.830 --> 00:11:59.509
looks like. Adam Fox looks good. Mika's over a point
257
00:11:59.529 --> 00:12:02.700
per game at this point. Ty Cartier looks good for them.
258
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Gabe Perreault is taking his next step. So this is
259
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going to be a big stepping stone for the New
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Jersey Devils. Nico Dawes for Dylan Garand tonight. I think
261
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that's going to be an interesting goalie matchup. A couple
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of young guys. We'll see how it goes.
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I don't know if you study the Rangers' analytics. Do
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their analytics match what their record is right now?
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So I looked at the Rangers' analytics this morning. What
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the Rangers are doing really well right now, their special
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teams is really good. So their expected goals on the
268
00:12:30.029 --> 00:12:33.049
power play is top five and their expected goals against
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00:12:33.210 --> 00:12:36.309
on the penalty kills also top five. So, so they're there.
270
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Then that's, that's what the Rangers went two or three
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years ago when they were making their conference finals runs.
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That's what the Rangers were. They were not a very
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good five V five team, but they were elite at
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special teams this year. They're pretty solid at five V five.
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They're about an average five V five team and their
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special teams are elite. So that's why they're six and
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00:12:52.480 --> 00:12:54.860
two right now. Um, A lot of moves they made
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00:12:54.879 --> 00:12:57.480
in the offseason are panning out right now. That second
279
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pair of Dursey and Pedersen looks really good for the
280
00:13:00.820 --> 00:13:05.220
Rangers to complement Gavrikov and Fox. So, you know, Igor
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00:13:05.259 --> 00:13:08.710
going down, like, I never root for injuries. Like, that sucks. Like, brutal,
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brutal injury for the Rangers.
283
00:13:10.070 --> 00:13:11.509
I think it can happen to any goaltender.
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No, you can't. There's no replacement for Igor, unfortunately. He's
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an $ 11. 5 million goaltender. Like, he's one of the best
286
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at his position. You can't replace that. But at the
287
00:13:22.179 --> 00:13:24.539
same time, Dylan Garand has been like, finally, I've been
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waiting for an opportunity in this organization. I'm going to
289
00:13:27.159 --> 00:13:29.009
take advantage of it. And we'll see if Nico Dawes
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does the same tonight. And how about the Dylan Garand story, right? Like,
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00:13:32.269 --> 00:13:34.600
here's a guy that... You know, the Rangers cut. Well,
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imagine if someone had claimed Dylan Garand on waivers. The
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Rangers would be in a brutal spot because Corpozalo's hurt
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too right now. They'd be starting Spencer Martin. They just
295
00:13:42.990 --> 00:13:45.590
signed James Reimer to a PTO. Like, they would be
296
00:13:45.669 --> 00:13:47.850
in a bad position in net right now if Dylan
297
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Garand was claimed on waivers. 100%.
298
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And he's come in, and he's really played well. I mean,
299
00:13:52.970 --> 00:13:55.970
they've limited the chances, obviously. But, you know, he's stepped up,
300
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and he's made the key saves at certain times in
301
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the game. Even the other night during Tampa Bay. The
302
00:14:01.139 --> 00:14:03.600
Tampa Bay game, he made key saves at certain times
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in the game that really pushed him.
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At one point, it was 2-1. It was a 2-1 game.
305
00:14:08.590 --> 00:14:11.889
And I remember saying to myself, the next goal scored
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00:14:11.929 --> 00:14:14.769
here wins the game. And if Tampa had come in
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and scored that goal, the whole game could have changed.
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But he was able to make some key saves at
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certain points in the game that really was able to
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let them settle down and get back into the game.
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And that's the difference, right? Right.
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00:14:26.230 --> 00:14:28.879
So we'll see tonight. It's going to be a battle tonight.
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I don't think it's going to be a.
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I don't think anyone should think this is going to
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00:14:31.990 --> 00:14:33.730
be a cakewalk. The Rangers are good this year.
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One way or the other, though. I think tonight is
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00:14:36.240 --> 00:14:39.000
going to be... A 3-2, 4-3 type of game. I
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00:14:39.009 --> 00:14:41.419
think it's going to be a typical New York, New
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00:14:41.460 --> 00:14:42.080
Jersey battle.
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I think it's going to be back and forth.
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00:14:44.000 --> 00:14:44.399
I agree.
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00:14:44.440 --> 00:14:46.080
Whoever scores the last goal is going to win. I agree.
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00:14:46.120 --> 00:14:48.679
Well, let's get to our predictions. We do this thing
324
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here on Game Day Live. Predictions, predictions, predictions. Get your
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00:14:52.129 --> 00:14:53.690
predictions in in.
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00:14:53.649 --> 00:14:59.379
The YouTube Live at Let's Go Devils on Facebook. Instagram
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00:14:59.720 --> 00:15:02.240
and Twitch at Let's Go Dolls Podcast. I'm on X
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00:15:02.600 --> 00:15:05.879
at Let's Go Dolls Pod. Get your predictions in. I
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00:15:05.940 --> 00:15:09.240
want to know your predictions. So, Kurt, you think it's
330
00:15:09.259 --> 00:15:10.139
going to be a close game?
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00:15:10.299 --> 00:15:10.960
I do. I do.
332
00:15:11.120 --> 00:15:11.340
I do.
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00:15:11.360 --> 00:15:13.039
Do you know what score you're thinking?
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00:15:13.779 --> 00:15:18.370
I'm thinking it's going to be a 3-2, 4-3 type game,
335
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like I said.
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But who's going to win? Are you brave enough?
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00:15:21.929 --> 00:15:23.549
Of course I'm going to stay with the Rangers. I
338
00:15:23.570 --> 00:15:25.860
think it's going to be a 3-2 game. Rangers win it.
339
00:15:25.909 --> 00:15:28.230
Maybe take an empty netter at the end. I don't
340
00:15:28.250 --> 00:15:31.029
think it's going to be a blowout. I think coming
341
00:15:31.090 --> 00:15:33.110
off a game with Tampa Bay where they had to
342
00:15:33.149 --> 00:15:35.250
be really good because Tampa Bay is very good.
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00:15:35.460 --> 00:15:35.929
Very good.
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00:15:36.009 --> 00:15:38.399
I think it's a game. They don't look like Tampa
345
00:15:38.419 --> 00:15:40.340
Bay to start the year, though, I will say.
346
00:15:42.659 --> 00:15:46.259
Well, Corbin says 5-3 Devils. Max says 7-3 Devils.
347
00:15:46.299 --> 00:15:48.440
You got any good YouTube comments in there? Any good questions?
348
00:15:49.259 --> 00:15:51.980
It's scrolling pretty fast, but I'll get to that in
349
00:15:52.000 --> 00:15:52.340
a sec.
350
00:15:53.139 --> 00:15:58.389
Roman says 5-4 Rangers. He's also an e-bub as well
351
00:15:58.610 --> 00:16:02.399
that has filled me out of nowhere. We love our e-bugs.
352
00:16:02.860 --> 00:16:04.580
A lot of people are asking, so this one, if
353
00:16:04.659 --> 00:16:07.240
Dawes has a bad game, do you go give Poirier
354
00:16:07.259 --> 00:16:09.679
a look? Here's my, I don't want to say issue
355
00:16:09.700 --> 00:16:12.970
with that. Poirier hasn't really had any practices with the team.
356
00:16:13.139 --> 00:16:16.730
They're not going to throw him in. Some people have
357
00:16:16.750 --> 00:16:19.169
replied to my tweets being like, why is Poirier not in?
358
00:16:19.730 --> 00:16:23.330
He's not ready for this situation, dude. They claimed him.
359
00:16:23.490 --> 00:16:26.490
They have him as their third goaltender. They're obviously rolling
360
00:16:26.539 --> 00:16:30.990
Dawes and Allen as their two guys. This schedule does
361
00:16:31.049 --> 00:16:33.610
not line up for a good situation for Fourier to
362
00:16:33.649 --> 00:16:35.309
come in. You're not going to throw him into a
363
00:16:35.370 --> 00:16:37.690
Devil's Rangers game in his first game. That's insane to me.
364
00:16:37.690 --> 00:16:39.289
You're throwing him to the Wolves at that point.
365
00:16:39.309 --> 00:16:43.690
Lynn Mars says, will Timo do anything useful tonight?
366
00:16:43.730 --> 00:16:46.470
I got Timo for his goal tonight. Really? I think
367
00:16:46.509 --> 00:16:50.009
it's his time. He is beyond due for a goal tonight,
368
00:16:50.610 --> 00:16:52.350
and I think it's the night he's going to get it.
369
00:16:52.830 --> 00:16:53.490
What's up, Casey?
370
00:16:53.789 --> 00:16:57.259
So, Sam, I'm going to say thank you again for
371
00:16:57.279 --> 00:16:59.659
letting me on. I do have to run, but I
372
00:16:59.860 --> 00:17:01.519
really appreciate the opportunity.
373
00:17:01.059 --> 00:17:03.259
To come on and speak a little bit about hockey.
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00:17:03.500 --> 00:17:07.019
More importantly, more than Rangers hockey, obviously I'm a Ranger fan,
375
00:17:07.039 --> 00:17:09.690
but I'm a hockey fan first, and I love the
376
00:17:09.710 --> 00:17:10.309
game of hockey.
377
00:17:10.329 --> 00:17:13.049
So I love what you're doing, and I appreciate the time.
378
00:17:13.089 --> 00:17:14.069
So thank you for having me on.
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00:17:14.230 --> 00:17:15.349
As a gift for our EVO.
380
00:17:15.369 --> 00:17:16.269
Fortune cookie. Yes.
381
00:17:16.470 --> 00:17:19.670
Yes. Let's go. Have a Ranger Suck fortune cookie. You
382
00:17:19.710 --> 00:17:20.099
got it.
383
00:17:20.650 --> 00:17:23.160
I will gladly accept. Thank you. Yeah. All right, gentlemen.
384
00:17:23.180 --> 00:17:23.869
Have a great night. Thank you.
385
00:17:23.880 --> 00:17:25.319
Thanks so much for having us. Sam, I got five
386
00:17:25.339 --> 00:17:27.859
more minutes for you. What other questions do you have
387
00:17:27.900 --> 00:17:29.519
that you want to know about? What's up, Case?
388
00:17:31.480 --> 00:17:35.109
Well, there's... One question, where is the Rangers suck fortune
389
00:17:35.150 --> 00:17:37.509
cookies and sign? The sign's not here.
390
00:17:37.529 --> 00:17:40.730
Let me just get to the scores real quick.
391
00:17:40.799 --> 00:17:42.319
Let's see here.
392
00:17:42.480 --> 00:17:44.519
I got 5-3 Devils. I like that.
393
00:17:44.539 --> 00:17:45.519
You got 5-3 Devils.
394
00:17:45.559 --> 00:17:46.740
I got 5-3 Devils.
395
00:17:46.759 --> 00:17:47.299
5-3 Devils.
396
00:17:47.779 --> 00:17:50.759
I think both goaltenders are going to let up a
397
00:17:50.779 --> 00:17:53.750
goal that they're probably going to want back. And I
398
00:17:53.809 --> 00:17:56.650
think that it's going to be a tough game. It's
399
00:17:56.670 --> 00:17:58.230
going to be a tough game. The Rangers' top six
400
00:17:58.250 --> 00:18:02.180
looks really good. Dorofiev hasn't got going yet, and he's
401
00:18:02.220 --> 00:18:04.660
a really good player, so that makes me nervous a
402
00:18:04.680 --> 00:18:06.890
little bit. But at the same time, Timo's not got
403
00:18:06.930 --> 00:18:07.950
going yet for us.
404
00:18:07.970 --> 00:18:13.549
Yep. Seagot says, Keith, if this defense continues to struggle,
405
00:18:14.190 --> 00:18:17.559
what's the move you realistically see Sonny making? Good.
406
00:18:17.700 --> 00:18:21.279
Great question. So right now they're rolling with the six
407
00:18:21.299 --> 00:18:24.940
they got, and Dylan's actually the scratch, right? He's making
408
00:18:24.940 --> 00:18:27.609
$ 4 million a year. That's a lot of money to
409
00:18:27.650 --> 00:18:29.750
be making for a guy who's not going to be
410
00:18:29.809 --> 00:18:32.769
seeing the ice and, you know, injuries happen. So you
411
00:18:32.809 --> 00:18:34.670
have to be cautious of if you want to make
412
00:18:34.690 --> 00:18:36.730
a move on the back end, you want to trade
413
00:18:36.769 --> 00:18:40.660
a guy like Dylan or Kovacevic. Like if someone goes down, like,
414
00:18:41.059 --> 00:18:43.279
then you have to go into your AHL bucket, right?
415
00:18:43.299 --> 00:18:45.339
You have to pick up, bring up a Saleev who's
416
00:18:45.440 --> 00:18:47.509
really young and raw, and you don't know if he's
417
00:18:47.549 --> 00:18:51.990
ready for the NHL scene. Koliachonik, who's a stereotypical seventh defenseman,
418
00:18:52.250 --> 00:18:54.670
who will give you good games in spurts, but he's
419
00:18:54.710 --> 00:18:56.250
not a guy you want to rely on for a
420
00:18:56.269 --> 00:18:59.220
long period of time. So, to me, I think You
421
00:18:59.279 --> 00:19:02.220
keep this D situation until you need the salary cap
422
00:19:02.240 --> 00:19:05.279
space or until you understand that there's a trade out
423
00:19:05.299 --> 00:19:07.559
there that makes a lot of sense for you because
424
00:19:07.599 --> 00:19:10.440
you like that insurance policy, but you also don't want
425
00:19:10.460 --> 00:19:12.240
to pay a guy $ 4 million to sit on your bench.
426
00:19:12.609 --> 00:19:14.289
And I think Dylan will get back into the lineup
427
00:19:14.309 --> 00:19:16.829
at some point. I think, like, we'll see what happens.
428
00:19:17.309 --> 00:19:20.069
Chisholm was also playing his offside when he played with Dillon,
429
00:19:20.089 --> 00:19:22.230
so now he's on his strong side. So that might
430
00:19:22.269 --> 00:19:24.890
be a big factor. Him and Kovacevic quietly had a
431
00:19:24.930 --> 00:19:27.650
good game on Tuesday, but it was against a Detroit team.
432
00:19:27.690 --> 00:19:30.109
They didn't play against their top line as much. So
433
00:19:30.130 --> 00:19:32.559
we'll see how they do, you know, getting tougher minutes
434
00:19:32.619 --> 00:19:35.940
across the board. But, I mean, the defense is, it's
435
00:19:35.980 --> 00:19:38.019
not even like the defense is necessarily the issue. Like,
436
00:19:38.059 --> 00:19:40.220
some of the forwards are not back-checking and in their
437
00:19:40.259 --> 00:19:43.339
right positions. So I think it's a group effort. It's
438
00:19:43.380 --> 00:19:44.240
a collective effort.
439
00:19:45.309 --> 00:19:48.240
Robert Isaacson says, what does the analytics say about the
440
00:19:48.289 --> 00:19:48.950
Devils D?
441
00:19:48.970 --> 00:19:51.859
Is the issue the goaltender? or underlying issue with the
442
00:19:51.890 --> 00:19:52.440
D core?
443
00:19:53.000 --> 00:19:54.480
I mean let's just take a step back at that
444
00:19:54.619 --> 00:19:57.960
Ottawa game for example right the Devils gave up three
445
00:19:57.980 --> 00:19:59.920
goals right the fourth goal was an empty netter so
446
00:19:59.940 --> 00:20:02.000
they gave up three goals you look at the first
447
00:20:02.039 --> 00:20:04.740
goal nine seconds off the faceoff Shane Pinto that was
448
00:20:04.779 --> 00:20:08.710
a total defensive lapse like There were five guys bunched up,
449
00:20:08.730 --> 00:20:11.539
and they let Pinto go backside. Like, no one was
450
00:20:11.720 --> 00:20:14.880
on him. That is definitely a defensive issue. Like, that
451
00:20:14.940 --> 00:20:18.039
is not on Nico Dawes whatsoever. The second goal, Brett
452
00:20:18.079 --> 00:20:20.480
Pesci slips and falls, right? But even getting to that
453
00:20:20.529 --> 00:20:23.829
penalty ahead of time, like, Vange took a bad penalty. So, like,
454
00:20:23.849 --> 00:20:26.269
you put him in a bad situation, and then you
455
00:20:26.289 --> 00:20:28.329
have a guy wide open in the slot. That's not
456
00:20:28.390 --> 00:20:30.769
on him. And then the third goal, Tim Stutzel had
457
00:20:30.890 --> 00:20:34.039
a nasty deflection. That deflection had no business going in
458
00:20:34.059 --> 00:20:35.980
the back of the net, dude. So, like, to me...
459
00:20:36.500 --> 00:20:38.970
There are situations where the goaltenders, you want them to
460
00:20:39.009 --> 00:20:41.130
make a save that they didn't make, right? But I
461
00:20:41.190 --> 00:20:44.759
don't think we can blame the goaltenders as the prime
462
00:20:44.859 --> 00:20:47.750
issue right now of the defense. Like the team is 3-3,
463
00:20:48.279 --> 00:20:51.329
and I think the goaltending is going exactly how Sonny expected.
464
00:20:52.210 --> 00:20:55.210
average right you just want them to make the saves
465
00:20:55.230 --> 00:20:57.279
they should and then if there's going to be an
466
00:20:57.339 --> 00:20:59.059
extra save they need to make they might not make
467
00:20:59.119 --> 00:21:01.460
it but our goal is to outscore the opponents so
468
00:21:01.500 --> 00:21:03.960
we really beefed up the offense to get a ton
469
00:21:04.000 --> 00:21:06.180
of goals and we have the best expected goals for
470
00:21:06.359 --> 00:21:08.700
per 60 in the NHL so like We need to
471
00:21:08.759 --> 00:21:10.339
put more of those in the back of the net
472
00:21:10.579 --> 00:21:12.799
to alleviate some of the stress that's given on the
473
00:21:12.819 --> 00:21:13.960
defense and the goaltending.
474
00:21:13.980 --> 00:21:15.900
All right. A couple more questions.
475
00:21:16.140 --> 00:21:17.559
I got two more questions for you.
476
00:21:18.180 --> 00:21:20.890
Will the Devils score first or will it be played
477
00:21:20.930 --> 00:21:22.369
from behind time again?
478
00:21:23.490 --> 00:21:26.829
You know what? I think everyone wants the Devils to
479
00:21:26.849 --> 00:21:30.410
score first. I think that's a no-brainer. To me, I
480
00:21:30.450 --> 00:21:32.880
have a bad feeling the Rangers are going to get
481
00:21:32.890 --> 00:21:33.519
the first one tonight.
482
00:21:33.539 --> 00:21:34.099
I have a bad feeling.
483
00:21:35.410 --> 00:21:37.809
And I think it is tough when you're playing catch-up
484
00:21:37.869 --> 00:21:40.569
the entire game, right? Like you want to get out
485
00:21:40.630 --> 00:21:42.329
in front. You want to be the ones to get
486
00:21:42.349 --> 00:21:43.690
the first goal, and you want to be in the
487
00:21:43.750 --> 00:21:46.329
driver's seat. So the fact that we've only scored the
488
00:21:46.369 --> 00:21:48.329
first goal one of our six games so far, like
489
00:21:48.369 --> 00:21:52.829
that's not ideal. And I think there's some conversations happening
490
00:21:52.869 --> 00:21:55.789
about that, but I think it's not something that we're
491
00:21:55.809 --> 00:21:57.650
blowing out of proportion. Like I think they have to
492
00:21:57.690 --> 00:21:59.700
start well. And a lot of these games they are
493
00:21:59.759 --> 00:22:03.019
starting well, right? They're just unfortunately getting scored on first.
494
00:22:03.769 --> 00:22:07.109
Absolutely. And one last question before we go, and then
495
00:22:07.150 --> 00:22:08.170
I'll give you my prediction.
496
00:22:08.630 --> 00:22:13.349
Realistically, how many more games does Dawes get to prove himself?
497
00:22:16.069 --> 00:22:19.710
I mean, I don't think Dawes has had a stinker yet. So, like,
498
00:22:19.759 --> 00:22:22.240
I think as long as he stays the course, like,
499
00:22:22.259 --> 00:22:25.140
I don't think there's, like, a threshold where you're like,
500
00:22:25.180 --> 00:22:27.869
how many games does he get? Because look at his–
501
00:22:28.119 --> 00:22:30.440
he's played two games so far, right? He's played on
502
00:22:30.480 --> 00:22:34.049
Long Island. They lost 6-0. The team gave him zero
503
00:22:34.089 --> 00:22:36.609
goals of goal support, and a lot of those goals
504
00:22:36.650 --> 00:22:38.910
were defensive breakdowns. So, like, I'm not putting a lot
505
00:22:38.930 --> 00:22:40.829
of those goals. Like, the second goal, he didn't get
506
00:22:40.869 --> 00:22:43.369
the rebound. Sure, that's on him. But if the team's
507
00:22:43.390 --> 00:22:44.869
not going to score in front of him, I don't
508
00:22:44.910 --> 00:22:46.329
think that you can put it on him. And then
509
00:22:46.369 --> 00:22:49.109
the 4-1 loss to Ottawa, like I just stated, like,
510
00:22:49.349 --> 00:22:51.910
I don't think a single goal was, quote-unquote, his fault.
511
00:22:52.029 --> 00:22:54.170
And I know you want your goaltenders to make a
512
00:22:54.230 --> 00:22:56.569
save when they shouldn't. Like, don't get me wrong, but...
513
00:22:57.019 --> 00:22:58.880
I don't think there's a number that you're putting on
514
00:22:58.920 --> 00:23:02.440
Dawes at this point. If he starts really stinking short,
515
00:23:02.480 --> 00:23:04.240
but he hasn't done that yet.
516
00:23:04.519 --> 00:23:05.519
Yeah, yeah.
517
00:23:05.799 --> 00:23:10.319
Well, I think this whole analytics, normally I give a
518
00:23:10.400 --> 00:23:15.559
wild prediction like 11 to 2 devils, but I think
519
00:23:15.599 --> 00:23:17.059
it's going to be 5-4 overtime.
520
00:23:17.299 --> 00:23:20.700
Okay. Jack again? Third time's a charm?
521
00:23:20.789 --> 00:23:21.420
I think so.
522
00:23:21.619 --> 00:23:23.069
The guy has the Rangers number, right?
523
00:23:23.109 --> 00:23:26.119
Yeah, he's a Ranger killer, Jack Hughes. I mean, he's
524
00:23:26.140 --> 00:23:30.369
had phenomenal numbers. But anyway, Keith, thank you so much.
525
00:23:30.410 --> 00:23:32.950
I want to thank all those tuning in. Thank Frank,
526
00:23:33.009 --> 00:23:37.289
the Tank, Casey, Kevin, American Whiskey, all the fans that
527
00:23:37.329 --> 00:23:37.849
came out.
528
00:23:37.869 --> 00:23:39.990
Thank Kurt, the E-Bub that filled in.
529
00:23:41.529 --> 00:23:43.799
Wow, we had a Ranger fan that actually filled in.
530
00:23:43.829 --> 00:23:47.529
But anyway, we'll be back after the game. Devils after dark.
531
00:23:48.170 --> 00:23:50.509
Scotty at Cirrus XM, Liquid Metal, and I will recap
532
00:23:50.529 --> 00:23:51.349
the game that was.
533
00:23:51.890 --> 00:23:53.950
Until next time, let's go Devils.
534
00:24:46.269 --> 00:24:47.230
We'll be right back.
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Hi, this is Chico Resch.
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You are listening to the Let's Go Devils podcast on
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the Primetime Radio Network.
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Happy Devils Thursday.
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This is Game Day Live, coming to you live, live
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00:00:26.370 --> 00:00:30.850
from American Whiskey. 51 Edison Place, across the street from
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Prudential Center, next to Championship Plaza. I'm your host, Sam Wu,
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00:00:35.250 --> 00:00:40.950
here with an e-bub, an unlikely e-bub, emergency backup broadcaster.
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This is Big Kurt, who loves salads, by the way.
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He loves salads, by the way, the original salad here.
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as we're streaming live.
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On Facebook Live, YouTube Live, X Live, Twitch, and now
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on Instagram Live on the Let's Go Devils Network as
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the Devils take on the New York Rangers tonight at
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the Rock.
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First of four games.
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How are you, Kurt? I'm doing well, Sam. Thanks for
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having me.
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I've got to be honest. Thanks for having me. I
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also have to be honest. There's no salad that I
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have not been able to take down.
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I've got to be honest.
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Yeah, especially the one at my wedding when we actually,
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the best man speech stopped the entire wedding.
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My wedding and Mrs. Wu, just to give Kurt a salad.
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True story.
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That's right.
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True story. A big bowl of salad came out, but. Hello, everybody.
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Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you are.
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We've got the EBUB action here because Keith Cavanaugh is
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socializing right now. Keith Cavanaugh of Puckpedia. He is a
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good friend of the podcast. He'll talk a little analytics
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right now. But Devils-Rangers, the rivalry continues. And full disclosure,
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an unlikely EBUB. Kurt is a Rangers fan. I am.
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But he is a hockey fan first, a student of
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the game. So what's the atmosphere like here?
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I'll tell you. It's a great question, Sam. I've got
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to be honest with you. It's a great atmosphere. I'm
39
00:02:04.810 --> 00:02:07.489
really excited for the game tonight. I think the Rangers
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00:02:07.530 --> 00:02:09.669
and Devils tonight are going to play a tight game.
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I don't think it's going to be a blowout. Although
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the Rangers are playing well, I feel like the last
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game that the Devils played against Detroit was a game
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00:02:19.500 --> 00:02:22.500
that they moved the puck well, they played well. And
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I just feel like tonight's going to be one of
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00:02:24.439 --> 00:02:27.560
those games where it's going to be a typical– New
47
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York-New Jersey rival, battle of the game, and it's going
48
00:02:32.060 --> 00:02:34.689
to be tight. I feel like it's going to be
49
00:02:34.710 --> 00:02:36.530
a 3-2, 4-3 type of game, one way or the other.
50
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I hope it's the other way, but who knows.
51
00:02:39.990 --> 00:02:41.289
Yeah, and you know what?
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I want to ask you, because you are a Rangers fan,
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about Shesterkin going down, but the Rangers are still playing well.
54
00:02:49.469 --> 00:02:49.949
Yeah, they are.
55
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They are playing well.
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Mike Sullivan's got this team really... I think it started
57
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even before last season, towards the end of the season.
58
00:03:00.129 --> 00:03:02.240
They started the job, the New York Rangers, but they're
59
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bringing young kids. Why are they doing well and why
60
00:03:05.120 --> 00:03:05.500
is their.
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Record showing that?
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00:03:06.979 --> 00:03:08.300
Yeah, I think it's a great question.
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And I think it's a lot has to do with
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the young guys that are coming in.
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They're playing a faster game. They're playing connected.
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00:03:17.490 --> 00:03:21.610
And their forecheck is something that we as Ranger fans
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have not seen.
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00:03:22.789 --> 00:03:23.569
We have not seen this.
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It's an aggressive style of play, very similar to the
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00:03:26.840 --> 00:03:31.439
way the Carolina Hurricanes play. Although it may not be
71
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as good, but it's very similar. And when you have
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young guys that are willing to prove themselves, willing to
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00:03:38.539 --> 00:03:40.699
take a puck to make a play, take a hit
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to make a play, it changes the.
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00:03:42.479 --> 00:03:45.250
Way that the game is played for the Rangers.
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And that's what we're doing right now, doing very small
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things that make a big difference.
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And that's good.
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Well, our guest is here. Keith Cavanaugh. I got your
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name right, finally. All right.
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This is Kurt.
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Meet Keith.
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Hey, Keith. How are you doing? Nice to meet you.
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00:04:01.710 --> 00:04:05.590
Kurt is our e-bub, the emergency backup broadcaster that we just.
85
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Pull a fan out of the crowd. Vetted, of course.
86
00:04:09.000 --> 00:04:09.319
Yes.
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Yeah. Pretty much. Pretty much. So Kurt's joining in. Very knowledgeable.
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00:04:15.060 --> 00:04:18.379
But also Keith is extremely knowledgeable because I've got a
89
00:04:18.399 --> 00:04:20.220
lot of questions for you. Because I was talking to
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00:04:20.259 --> 00:04:24.750
Kevin from American Whiskey yesterday. who is, yeah, he is
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the partner at this wonderful establishment that allows us to
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do this podcast, by the way.
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Do you have, like, an idiot's guide to analytics?
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Because I'm the stubborn, dumb fan that just refuses to
95
00:04:37.680 --> 00:04:42.600
accept it. But now I'm, after Nick Folano actually, like,
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hitting my head with it, now I'm starting to be
97
00:04:46.540 --> 00:04:49.019
like Grandpa and be like, all right, all right, you
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can date my granddaughter. But what is analytics and what
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do you do all day?
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I want to know everything.
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So they can have, like they know when the goalie
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00:05:01.750 --> 00:05:04.319
is square to the shot versus when the goalie is
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in motion and not square to the shot. So like
104
00:05:07.100 --> 00:05:10.180
that has a different impact on the goal that's scored.
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So there's so much that goes into it. I think
106
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for you, just trying to get into it, like keep
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it simple to start, right? Like just try to understand
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the basics of it. Like, And then high danger chances, right?
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You see a lot of that in the media. Every
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single analytics site qualifies or defines their high danger chances differently.
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So just understanding what their definition of that is to
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explain the information. But at the end of the day,
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hockey is hockey, right? They need to put the puck
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in the back of the net to beat the other team.
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Yeah, I mean, how do you balance the eye test
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and the analytics? I mean, you've played hockey for many years.
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You've coached.
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How do you make those decisions? Sometimes do you make
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judgment calls? You know, if you're analyzing data, if you're
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going to make decisions, or is it all data?
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There's context to everything, right? So you can look at
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a spreadsheet and it can tell you one thing, but
123
00:06:03.579 --> 00:06:06.420
there are reasons why that's happening that you can't tell
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from that spreadsheet. So that's why every single team has
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a big scouting department. They're not solely relying on the numbers.
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They're trying to make their analytics better because of the
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information that the scouts are giving them or player development
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is giving them. They're not trying to use that information
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as the end-all, be-all. They're trying to bake that information
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with these other minds who are on their staff who
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have a lot of wisdom in the sport. And they're
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trying to get to that point where you're blending the
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eye test and the analytics to really come to this
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metric or decision. And so I think that's the best
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way to do it. And Sonny's talked about this over
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and over again. It's how you aggregate the information. So
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you have the analytics, you have your scouting, you have
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your development, you have your coaching staff. You have a
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lot of people on staff that are going to help
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you make those decisions, and I think that's kind of
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the best way to do it.
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Well, I appreciate you explaining.
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That to me. It's just one piece of the pie,
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you know, Sam? It's just one piece.
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An important piece of this is when you talk about analytics, right? Like,
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there's a version of, like, the game, the in-game play, right?
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Analytics plays a huge part in the whole thing. But
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during game play... If one guy's not working and that
149
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guy's doing a good job analytically, quote-unquote.
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But if he's not going.
151
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If he's not going and you have a guy that's
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going over the last two, three, four, five games, maybe
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the coach makes a little bit of a change, puts
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that guy into a role where things are changing a
155
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little bit. Analytically, although one guy seems like he's doing
156
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a good job, you put this guy in the lineup
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or you put this guy on the power play or
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whatever that case is, and he starts to perform. That's
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an in-game decision that's made by a coach, which is
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really cool. Let me pull that out to an actual
161
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real devil situation. Anthony Mantha, on paper, looked like he'd
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be a perfect fit with Bratt and Jack. Those two
163
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guys are really good at speed, playmaking, entering the zone.
164
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And Mantha, over the last three years, has outperformed his
165
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expected goals in terms of finishing.
166
00:08:01.350 --> 00:08:03.990
So that line needed a finisher, right? They tried it
167
00:08:04.029 --> 00:08:05.709
for a few games. They tried it in the preseason.
168
00:08:06.189 --> 00:08:08.720
it didn't work. Right. And then Sheldon Keefe made a change.
169
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He brought Arseny Gritsuk up to that line and they
170
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looked really good in Detroit. So like, That's a situation
171
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where on paper, sometimes things look good one way, and
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then you just have to adapt, and I think that's
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what they did there.
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Yeah, I agree, and I think that's what defines a
175
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really good coach, where he's able to identify that situation
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and say, hey, this guy is not really going for us.
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Let's move this guy up. Let's make a little bit
178
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of a change, and if it starts to work, you've
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got to just go with it.
180
00:08:33.250 --> 00:08:33.529
Right.
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And analytics are great, but sometimes it just doesn't work out.
182
00:08:36.710 --> 00:08:39.789
And to your point, too, like when we talk about analytics, right,
183
00:08:40.029 --> 00:08:42.789
there's so many different aspects of hockey analytics can touch, right?
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A lot of teams are focused on, like, the performance
185
00:08:45.100 --> 00:08:48.279
science and, like, the health metrics. But then you also have, like,
186
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looking longer term for free agency trade acquisitions. You're looking
187
00:08:51.820 --> 00:08:54.899
at analytics for the NHL draft, all these prospects in
188
00:08:54.980 --> 00:08:57.259
different leagues. Like, that's a whole different kind of set
189
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of analytics. But then also the Devils hired someone this year,
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or they promoted someone, so now he's a coaching analyst.
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So now he might be focusing on the game by
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game and really trying to see who's going and making
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in-game adjustments. So there's so many ways to use the analytics.
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But at the end of the day, that word is
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kind of annoying because it's just information, right? It's just
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really information. That's a great point, yeah.
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And you know what's cool about the information is some
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guys play differently against other teams.
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Some guys just do better against other teams. Linus Olmark,
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for example. There you go. 9-1 against the Devils in
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his last 10 games. He was like a buck 50
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goals against the average 940 save percentage.
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Right.
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That guy does really good against the Devils. Right. There
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you go.
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And to my point, when you have a guy that
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just goes well against a certain team, sometimes you've got
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to ride that coat.
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Yep. Yeah.
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Well, because, again, I'm starting to... Come to grips, I
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gotta learn this. So that's why, and I really.
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Appreciate you being the analytics idiot that I am.
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I'm starting to- Analytics 101, baby.
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So I'm seeing all these memes out there, these infographics
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out there on social media.
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The JFresh, I say, player cards are the most popular, right?
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A lot of people are sharing those left and right.
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But I've seen some about the Devils so far on
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their 3-in-3 start. Again, I just read it real quick
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or whatever. It looks great.
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Are the Devils....
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For a lot of fans, it doesn't pass the eye test,
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but the analytics say one thing.
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I just wanted to see what your thoughts are on it.
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I think, as stupid as this sounds, I don't think
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much has changed year over year in terms of the
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Devils' main issue last year was finishing, right? They were
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not finishing goals that they probably should. This year, the
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same exact issue is happening right now. They're Expected goals
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is really strong. They're like a top three expected goals
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team across the entire NHL. I think they're number one
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in expected goals percentage, so the differential between expected goals for,
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expected goals against. So they're controlling play better than any
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team across the NHL, better than the Carolina Hurricanes, the
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Stanley Cup champions, better than anyone, right? The issue is
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they are not putting the puck in the net at
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the rate they should be. And obviously in Detroit on
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Monday or Tuesday, they were, right? They got five goals.
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They won in overtime. But then in that game in particular,
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the defense kind of let them down a little bit.
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There were some D-zone laps. Jake Allen was not 100%
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as good as he normally is. So it's just game
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by game. But I think generally speaking for the Devils,
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You've got to trust the process. We have to focus
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on not worrying about these small sample sizes. We're six
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games into an 84-game season.
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Oh, agreed.
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Every fan likes to get really worked up. Sonny made
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these moves over the offseason, not for the first few
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games of the season, but for the entirety of the
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season and for the playoffs. And so the team's 3-3.
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The Rangers are coming to town. This is a big,
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big game. The Rangers look incredible to start the year.
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They're 6-2 right now. A lot of guys going for them.
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I mean, Alexi Lafreniere has finally found his stride, it
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looks like. Adam Fox looks good. Mika's over a point
257
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per game at this point. Ty Cartier looks good for them.
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Gabe Perreault is taking his next step. So this is
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going to be a big stepping stone for the New
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Jersey Devils. Nico Dawes for Dylan Garand tonight. I think
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that's going to be an interesting goalie matchup. A couple
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of young guys. We'll see how it goes.
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I don't know if you study the Rangers' analytics. Do
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their analytics match what their record is right now?
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So I looked at the Rangers' analytics this morning. What
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the Rangers are doing really well right now, their special
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teams is really good. So their expected goals on the
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power play is top five and their expected goals against
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on the penalty kills also top five. So, so they're there.
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Then that's, that's what the Rangers went two or three
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years ago when they were making their conference finals runs.
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That's what the Rangers were. They were not a very
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good five V five team, but they were elite at
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special teams this year. They're pretty solid at five V five.
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They're about an average five V five team and their
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special teams are elite. So that's why they're six and
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two right now. Um, A lot of moves they made
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in the offseason are panning out right now. That second
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pair of Dursey and Pedersen looks really good for the
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Rangers to complement Gavrikov and Fox. So, you know, Igor
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going down, like, I never root for injuries. Like, that sucks. Like, brutal,
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brutal injury for the Rangers.
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I think it can happen to any goaltender.
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No, you can't. There's no replacement for Igor, unfortunately. He's
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an $ 11. 5 million goaltender. Like, he's one of the best
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at his position. You can't replace that. But at the
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same time, Dylan Garand has been like, finally, I've been
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waiting for an opportunity in this organization. I'm going to
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take advantage of it. And we'll see if Nico Dawes
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does the same tonight. And how about the Dylan Garand story, right? Like,
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here's a guy that... You know, the Rangers cut. Well,
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imagine if someone had claimed Dylan Garand on waivers. The
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Rangers would be in a brutal spot because Corpozalo's hurt
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too right now. They'd be starting Spencer Martin. They just
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signed James Reimer to a PTO. Like, they would be
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in a bad position in net right now if Dylan
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Garand was claimed on waivers. 100%.
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And he's come in, and he's really played well. I mean,
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they've limited the chances, obviously. But, you know, he's stepped up,
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and he's made the key saves at certain times in
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the game. Even the other night during Tampa Bay. The
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Tampa Bay game, he made key saves at certain times
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in the game that really pushed him.
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At one point, it was 2-1. It was a 2-1 game.
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And I remember saying to myself, the next goal scored
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here wins the game. And if Tampa had come in
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and scored that goal, the whole game could have changed.
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But he was able to make some key saves at
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certain points in the game that really was able to
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let them settle down and get back into the game.
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And that's the difference, right? Right.
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So we'll see tonight. It's going to be a battle tonight.
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I don't think it's going to be a.
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I don't think anyone should think this is going to
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be a cakewalk. The Rangers are good this year.
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One way or the other, though. I think tonight is
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going to be... A 3-2, 4-3 type of game. I
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think it's going to be a typical New York, New
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Jersey battle.
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I think it's going to be back and forth.
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I agree.
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Whoever scores the last goal is going to win. I agree.
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Well, let's get to our predictions. We do this thing
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here on Game Day Live. Predictions, predictions, predictions. Get your
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predictions in in.
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The YouTube Live at Let's Go Devils on Facebook. Instagram
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and Twitch at Let's Go Dolls Podcast. I'm on X
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at Let's Go Dolls Pod. Get your predictions in. I
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want to know your predictions. So, Kurt, you think it's
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going to be a close game?
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I do. I do.
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I do.
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Do you know what score you're thinking?
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I'm thinking it's going to be a 3-2, 4-3 type game,
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like I said.
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But who's going to win? Are you brave enough?
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Of course I'm going to stay with the Rangers. I
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think it's going to be a 3-2 game. Rangers win it.
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Maybe take an empty netter at the end. I don't
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think it's going to be a blowout. I think coming
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off a game with Tampa Bay where they had to
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be really good because Tampa Bay is very good.
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Very good.
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I think it's a game. They don't look like Tampa
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Bay to start the year, though, I will say.
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Well, Corbin says 5-3 Devils. Max says 7-3 Devils.
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You got any good YouTube comments in there? Any good questions?
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It's scrolling pretty fast, but I'll get to that in
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a sec.
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Roman says 5-4 Rangers. He's also an e-bub as well
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that has filled me out of nowhere. We love our e-bugs.
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A lot of people are asking, so this one, if
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Dawes has a bad game, do you go give Poirier
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a look? Here's my, I don't want to say issue
355
00:16:09.700 --> 00:16:12.970
with that. Poirier hasn't really had any practices with the team.
356
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They're not going to throw him in. Some people have
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00:16:16.750 --> 00:16:19.169
replied to my tweets being like, why is Poirier not in?
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00:16:19.730 --> 00:16:23.330
He's not ready for this situation, dude. They claimed him.
359
00:16:23.490 --> 00:16:26.490
They have him as their third goaltender. They're obviously rolling
360
00:16:26.539 --> 00:16:30.990
Dawes and Allen as their two guys. This schedule does
361
00:16:31.049 --> 00:16:33.610
not line up for a good situation for Fourier to
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00:16:33.649 --> 00:16:35.309
come in. You're not going to throw him into a
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00:16:35.370 --> 00:16:37.690
Devil's Rangers game in his first game. That's insane to me.
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00:16:37.690 --> 00:16:39.289
You're throwing him to the Wolves at that point.
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00:16:39.309 --> 00:16:43.690
Lynn Mars says, will Timo do anything useful tonight?
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I got Timo for his goal tonight. Really? I think
367
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it's his time. He is beyond due for a goal tonight,
368
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and I think it's the night he's going to get it.
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What's up, Casey?
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00:16:53.789 --> 00:16:57.259
So, Sam, I'm going to say thank you again for
371
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letting me on. I do have to run, but I
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really appreciate the opportunity.
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To come on and speak a little bit about hockey.
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More importantly, more than Rangers hockey, obviously I'm a Ranger fan,
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but I'm a hockey fan first, and I love the
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game of hockey.
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So I love what you're doing, and I appreciate the time.
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00:17:13.089 --> 00:17:14.069
So thank you for having me on.
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As a gift for our EVO.
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00:17:15.369 --> 00:17:16.269
Fortune cookie. Yes.
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00:17:16.470 --> 00:17:19.670
Yes. Let's go. Have a Ranger Suck fortune cookie. You
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00:17:19.710 --> 00:17:20.099
got it.
383
00:17:20.650 --> 00:17:23.160
I will gladly accept. Thank you. Yeah. All right, gentlemen.
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00:17:23.180 --> 00:17:23.869
Have a great night. Thank you.
385
00:17:23.880 --> 00:17:25.319
Thanks so much for having us. Sam, I got five
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00:17:25.339 --> 00:17:27.859
more minutes for you. What other questions do you have
387
00:17:27.900 --> 00:17:29.519
that you want to know about? What's up, Case?
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00:17:31.480 --> 00:17:35.109
Well, there's... One question, where is the Rangers suck fortune
389
00:17:35.150 --> 00:17:37.509
cookies and sign? The sign's not here.
390
00:17:37.529 --> 00:17:40.730
Let me just get to the scores real quick.
391
00:17:40.799 --> 00:17:42.319
Let's see here.
392
00:17:42.480 --> 00:17:44.519
I got 5-3 Devils. I like that.
393
00:17:44.539 --> 00:17:45.519
You got 5-3 Devils.
394
00:17:45.559 --> 00:17:46.740
I got 5-3 Devils.
395
00:17:46.759 --> 00:17:47.299
5-3 Devils.
396
00:17:47.779 --> 00:17:50.759
I think both goaltenders are going to let up a
397
00:17:50.779 --> 00:17:53.750
goal that they're probably going to want back. And I
398
00:17:53.809 --> 00:17:56.650
think that it's going to be a tough game. It's
399
00:17:56.670 --> 00:17:58.230
going to be a tough game. The Rangers' top six
400
00:17:58.250 --> 00:18:02.180
looks really good. Dorofiev hasn't got going yet, and he's
401
00:18:02.220 --> 00:18:04.660
a really good player, so that makes me nervous a
402
00:18:04.680 --> 00:18:06.890
little bit. But at the same time, Timo's not got
403
00:18:06.930 --> 00:18:07.950
going yet for us.
404
00:18:07.970 --> 00:18:13.549
Yep. Seagot says, Keith, if this defense continues to struggle,
405
00:18:14.190 --> 00:18:17.559
what's the move you realistically see Sonny making? Good.
406
00:18:17.700 --> 00:18:21.279
Great question. So right now they're rolling with the six
407
00:18:21.299 --> 00:18:24.940
they got, and Dylan's actually the scratch, right? He's making
408
00:18:24.940 --> 00:18:27.609
$ 4 million a year. That's a lot of money to
409
00:18:27.650 --> 00:18:29.750
be making for a guy who's not going to be
410
00:18:29.809 --> 00:18:32.769
seeing the ice and, you know, injuries happen. So you
411
00:18:32.809 --> 00:18:34.670
have to be cautious of if you want to make
412
00:18:34.690 --> 00:18:36.730
a move on the back end, you want to trade
413
00:18:36.769 --> 00:18:40.660
a guy like Dylan or Kovacevic. Like if someone goes down, like,
414
00:18:41.059 --> 00:18:43.279
then you have to go into your AHL bucket, right?
415
00:18:43.299 --> 00:18:45.339
You have to pick up, bring up a Saleev who's
416
00:18:45.440 --> 00:18:47.509
really young and raw, and you don't know if he's
417
00:18:47.549 --> 00:18:51.990
ready for the NHL scene. Koliachonik, who's a stereotypical seventh defenseman,
418
00:18:52.250 --> 00:18:54.670
who will give you good games in spurts, but he's
419
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not a guy you want to rely on for a
420
00:18:56.269 --> 00:18:59.220
long period of time. So, to me, I think You
421
00:18:59.279 --> 00:19:02.220
keep this D situation until you need the salary cap
422
00:19:02.240 --> 00:19:05.279
space or until you understand that there's a trade out
423
00:19:05.299 --> 00:19:07.559
there that makes a lot of sense for you because
424
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you like that insurance policy, but you also don't want
425
00:19:10.460 --> 00:19:12.240
to pay a guy $ 4 million to sit on your bench.
426
00:19:12.609 --> 00:19:14.289
And I think Dylan will get back into the lineup
427
00:19:14.309 --> 00:19:16.829
at some point. I think, like, we'll see what happens.
428
00:19:17.309 --> 00:19:20.069
Chisholm was also playing his offside when he played with Dillon,
429
00:19:20.089 --> 00:19:22.230
so now he's on his strong side. So that might
430
00:19:22.269 --> 00:19:24.890
be a big factor. Him and Kovacevic quietly had a
431
00:19:24.930 --> 00:19:27.650
good game on Tuesday, but it was against a Detroit team.
432
00:19:27.690 --> 00:19:30.109
They didn't play against their top line as much. So
433
00:19:30.130 --> 00:19:32.559
we'll see how they do, you know, getting tougher minutes
434
00:19:32.619 --> 00:19:35.940
across the board. But, I mean, the defense is, it's
435
00:19:35.980 --> 00:19:38.019
not even like the defense is necessarily the issue. Like,
436
00:19:38.059 --> 00:19:40.220
some of the forwards are not back-checking and in their
437
00:19:40.259 --> 00:19:43.339
right positions. So I think it's a group effort. It's
438
00:19:43.380 --> 00:19:44.240
a collective effort.
439
00:19:45.309 --> 00:19:48.240
Robert Isaacson says, what does the analytics say about the
440
00:19:48.289 --> 00:19:48.950
Devils D?
441
00:19:48.970 --> 00:19:51.859
Is the issue the goaltender? or underlying issue with the
442
00:19:51.890 --> 00:19:52.440
D core?
443
00:19:53.000 --> 00:19:54.480
I mean let's just take a step back at that
444
00:19:54.619 --> 00:19:57.960
Ottawa game for example right the Devils gave up three
445
00:19:57.980 --> 00:19:59.920
goals right the fourth goal was an empty netter so
446
00:19:59.940 --> 00:20:02.000
they gave up three goals you look at the first
447
00:20:02.039 --> 00:20:04.740
goal nine seconds off the faceoff Shane Pinto that was
448
00:20:04.779 --> 00:20:08.710
a total defensive lapse like There were five guys bunched up,
449
00:20:08.730 --> 00:20:11.539
and they let Pinto go backside. Like, no one was
450
00:20:11.720 --> 00:20:14.880
on him. That is definitely a defensive issue. Like, that
451
00:20:14.940 --> 00:20:18.039
is not on Nico Dawes whatsoever. The second goal, Brett
452
00:20:18.079 --> 00:20:20.480
Pesci slips and falls, right? But even getting to that
453
00:20:20.529 --> 00:20:23.829
penalty ahead of time, like, Vange took a bad penalty. So, like,
454
00:20:23.849 --> 00:20:26.269
you put him in a bad situation, and then you
455
00:20:26.289 --> 00:20:28.329
have a guy wide open in the slot. That's not
456
00:20:28.390 --> 00:20:30.769
on him. And then the third goal, Tim Stutzel had
457
00:20:30.890 --> 00:20:34.039
a nasty deflection. That deflection had no business going in
458
00:20:34.059 --> 00:20:35.980
the back of the net, dude. So, like, to me...
459
00:20:36.500 --> 00:20:38.970
There are situations where the goaltenders, you want them to
460
00:20:39.009 --> 00:20:41.130
make a save that they didn't make, right? But I
461
00:20:41.190 --> 00:20:44.759
don't think we can blame the goaltenders as the prime
462
00:20:44.859 --> 00:20:47.750
issue right now of the defense. Like the team is 3-3,
463
00:20:48.279 --> 00:20:51.329
and I think the goaltending is going exactly how Sonny expected.
464
00:20:52.210 --> 00:20:55.210
average right you just want them to make the saves
465
00:20:55.230 --> 00:20:57.279
they should and then if there's going to be an
466
00:20:57.339 --> 00:20:59.059
extra save they need to make they might not make
467
00:20:59.119 --> 00:21:01.460
it but our goal is to outscore the opponents so
468
00:21:01.500 --> 00:21:03.960
we really beefed up the offense to get a ton
469
00:21:04.000 --> 00:21:06.180
of goals and we have the best expected goals for
470
00:21:06.359 --> 00:21:08.700
per 60 in the NHL so like We need to
471
00:21:08.759 --> 00:21:10.339
put more of those in the back of the net
472
00:21:10.579 --> 00:21:12.799
to alleviate some of the stress that's given on the
473
00:21:12.819 --> 00:21:13.960
defense and the goaltending.
474
00:21:13.980 --> 00:21:15.900
All right. A couple more questions.
475
00:21:16.140 --> 00:21:17.559
I got two more questions for you.
476
00:21:18.180 --> 00:21:20.890
Will the Devils score first or will it be played
477
00:21:20.930 --> 00:21:22.369
from behind time again?
478
00:21:23.490 --> 00:21:26.829
You know what? I think everyone wants the Devils to
479
00:21:26.849 --> 00:21:30.410
score first. I think that's a no-brainer. To me, I
480
00:21:30.450 --> 00:21:32.880
have a bad feeling the Rangers are going to get
481
00:21:32.890 --> 00:21:33.519
the first one tonight.
482
00:21:33.539 --> 00:21:34.099
I have a bad feeling.
483
00:21:35.410 --> 00:21:37.809
And I think it is tough when you're playing catch-up
484
00:21:37.869 --> 00:21:40.569
the entire game, right? Like you want to get out
485
00:21:40.630 --> 00:21:42.329
in front. You want to be the ones to get
486
00:21:42.349 --> 00:21:43.690
the first goal, and you want to be in the
487
00:21:43.750 --> 00:21:46.329
driver's seat. So the fact that we've only scored the
488
00:21:46.369 --> 00:21:48.329
first goal one of our six games so far, like
489
00:21:48.369 --> 00:21:52.829
that's not ideal. And I think there's some conversations happening
490
00:21:52.869 --> 00:21:55.789
about that, but I think it's not something that we're
491
00:21:55.809 --> 00:21:57.650
blowing out of proportion. Like I think they have to
492
00:21:57.690 --> 00:21:59.700
start well. And a lot of these games they are
493
00:21:59.759 --> 00:22:03.019
starting well, right? They're just unfortunately getting scored on first.
494
00:22:03.769 --> 00:22:07.109
Absolutely. And one last question before we go, and then
495
00:22:07.150 --> 00:22:08.170
I'll give you my prediction.
496
00:22:08.630 --> 00:22:13.349
Realistically, how many more games does Dawes get to prove himself?
497
00:22:16.069 --> 00:22:19.710
I mean, I don't think Dawes has had a stinker yet. So, like,
498
00:22:19.759 --> 00:22:22.240
I think as long as he stays the course, like,
499
00:22:22.259 --> 00:22:25.140
I don't think there's, like, a threshold where you're like,
500
00:22:25.180 --> 00:22:27.869
how many games does he get? Because look at his–
501
00:22:28.119 --> 00:22:30.440
he's played two games so far, right? He's played on
502
00:22:30.480 --> 00:22:34.049
Long Island. They lost 6-0. The team gave him zero
503
00:22:34.089 --> 00:22:36.609
goals of goal support, and a lot of those goals
504
00:22:36.650 --> 00:22:38.910
were defensive breakdowns. So, like, I'm not putting a lot
505
00:22:38.930 --> 00:22:40.829
of those goals. Like, the second goal, he didn't get
506
00:22:40.869 --> 00:22:43.369
the rebound. Sure, that's on him. But if the team's
507
00:22:43.390 --> 00:22:44.869
not going to score in front of him, I don't
508
00:22:44.910 --> 00:22:46.329
think that you can put it on him. And then
509
00:22:46.369 --> 00:22:49.109
the 4-1 loss to Ottawa, like I just stated, like,
510
00:22:49.349 --> 00:22:51.910
I don't think a single goal was, quote-unquote, his fault.
511
00:22:52.029 --> 00:22:54.170
And I know you want your goaltenders to make a
512
00:22:54.230 --> 00:22:56.569
save when they shouldn't. Like, don't get me wrong, but...
513
00:22:57.019 --> 00:22:58.880
I don't think there's a number that you're putting on
514
00:22:58.920 --> 00:23:02.440
Dawes at this point. If he starts really stinking short,
515
00:23:02.480 --> 00:23:04.240
but he hasn't done that yet.
516
00:23:04.519 --> 00:23:05.519
Yeah, yeah.
517
00:23:05.799 --> 00:23:10.319
Well, I think this whole analytics, normally I give a
518
00:23:10.400 --> 00:23:15.559
wild prediction like 11 to 2 devils, but I think
519
00:23:15.599 --> 00:23:17.059
it's going to be 5-4 overtime.
520
00:23:17.299 --> 00:23:20.700
Okay. Jack again? Third time's a charm?
521
00:23:20.789 --> 00:23:21.420
I think so.
522
00:23:21.619 --> 00:23:23.069
The guy has the Rangers number, right?
523
00:23:23.109 --> 00:23:26.119
Yeah, he's a Ranger killer, Jack Hughes. I mean, he's
524
00:23:26.140 --> 00:23:30.369
had phenomenal numbers. But anyway, Keith, thank you so much.
525
00:23:30.410 --> 00:23:32.950
I want to thank all those tuning in. Thank Frank,
526
00:23:33.009 --> 00:23:37.289
the Tank, Casey, Kevin, American Whiskey, all the fans that
527
00:23:37.329 --> 00:23:37.849
came out.
528
00:23:37.869 --> 00:23:39.990
Thank Kurt, the E-Bub that filled in.
529
00:23:41.529 --> 00:23:43.799
Wow, we had a Ranger fan that actually filled in.
530
00:23:43.829 --> 00:23:47.529
But anyway, we'll be back after the game. Devils after dark.
531
00:23:48.170 --> 00:23:50.509
Scotty at Cirrus XM, Liquid Metal, and I will recap
532
00:23:50.529 --> 00:23:51.349
the game that was.
533
00:23:51.890 --> 00:23:53.950
Until next time, let's go Devils.
534
00:24:46.269 --> 00:24:47.230
We'll be right back.
