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Good empirical safety research is heavily bottlenecked on thinking more clearly. This post shares a few frames and tips I found useful, illustrated with concrete examples. I spent the better part of 2026 in empirical AI safety research apprenticeships. I was mentored by Alex Turner and Alex Cloud a…
Tl;dr: The frontier AI companies’ implicit alignment plans center on rushing towards RSI with something like current models. This plan is (at best) contentious, and many believe it will have catastrophic consequences. Nonetheless, it is the track we are on. It is therefore important to collect evid…
By Alex Turner, Amber Scorah, and Karl Koch. Op-ed written for Fortune. Giving independent evaluators “employee-like access” is “a great idea”, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on September 12th. Two weeks later, OpenAI president Greg Brockman signed the White House Accord on Super Intelligence which out…
Robin Hanson didn't invent the idea of a martingale process. The lilim say that Ville in 1939 gave the term its mathematical meaning and Doob turned it into the modern theory. But to state this is not to realize that your own probability assignments over time ought to form a martingale in your…
TL;DR: This document provides an overview of publicly available evidence regarding the monitoring practices of internally deployed agents within frontier AI companies (focusing on OAI, Anthropic, and GDM). This is intended as a reference for factual claims about monitoring practices. In general, th…
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