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Today on the show: it’s officially under 100 days until the 2026 midterms, and both parties are panicking. Republicans are facing enthusiasm problems, Democrats are dealing with money trouble and internal drama, and prediction markets are trying to price the chaos.
Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the latest midterm markets, including control of the House and Senate, Democratic and Republican morale, Michigan’s Senate primary, the Democratic primary calendar, Fed day, Daniel Lurie, Waymo, crypto policy, and how campaigns are starting to think about prediction markets.
Then Eric Wilson joins Eventual to discuss campaigns, political technology, GOP strategy, and how prediction markets could become part of modern campaign strategy.
Andrew Prokop also joins to talk about Wisconsin’s warning that election bettors could risk their right to vote, how regulators are approaching Kalshi and prediction markets, and whether the political class understands what these markets actually are.
Finally, Nihal Krishan joins for a deep dive on Chinese open-source AI, the White House debate over banning Chinese AI models, Silicon Valley’s split over open-source AI, and whether prediction markets are asking the right questions about the future of artificial intelligence.
The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.
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