What the Polls and Prediction Markets Tell Us About the (Near) Future (Midterms)

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We are getting really close to the midterm elections,
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and we've got a pollapalooza going on out there.
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Tons of polls are out.
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We'll look at the latest and see how they stack up against prediction markets.
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We have Steve Dace from Blaze TV on to talk about,
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uh,
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the on the ground view of what's going on in Iowa,
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one of the key races and one of my biggest positions,
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uh,
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in these,
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uh,
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midterms.
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We'll talk to him about that.
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Uh,
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and,
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uh,
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if we have time,
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I think we'll have time to get to a candidate countdown today as well.
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It's all coming up,
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uh,
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and so much more unpredictable with Stu.
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All right,
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here we go.
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Lots to get to today.
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If you are new to the prediction market world,
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I wanna tell you,
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we have a brand new video up at predictable101.com.
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It is our predictable 101 lesson six.
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we bring you through from the beginning of the process all the way to this one,
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which I think is,
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what is it?
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Limit orders?
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I think it's trade,
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how do you trade a limit order?
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You know,
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you might be like,
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I have no idea how to do a limit order.
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We walk you through every little step,
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how to do it,
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uh,
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why it's valuable to,
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to understand,
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um,
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and,
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you know,
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that's.
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Step 6.
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If you go from the beginning,
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you'll
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understand how to do everything,
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OK?
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Uh,
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it's all up there at predictable 101.com and at youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
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We have 27 days until the midterm elections.
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Early voting has started in 14 states.
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There's so much going on,
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and we have actually a massively important debate night tonight.
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Tonight we have,
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uh,
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the Ashley Hinson
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Josh Turrick debate.
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That is a
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huge one in Iowa,
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uh,
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as you may know,
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Hinson's been one of my favorites.
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It's been much closer than I would like it to be.
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I didn't really predict all-time high,
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uh,
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diesel prices,
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and you know what,
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the show's called Predictable,
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so I guess I should have.
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Uh,
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but here we are,
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uh,
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this is,
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of course,
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uh,
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you know,
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it's weird because when we started talking about this,
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the war had already started.
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The,
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the,
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the rates came up and they came down.
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And we never hit those levels,
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and then we've inched back up,
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and now we're talking about really,
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really high stuff.
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That's,
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that's part of the reason why
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Iowa is closer
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than I'd like it to be.
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Um,
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but that's,
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uh,
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actually Hinson versus Josh Turk.
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It's 8:00 p.m. Eastern tonight.
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The other one that's big,
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probably not for America,
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but kind of for my prediction market positions,
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and let's be honest,
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this show is really about how
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I'm able to make money or not make money.
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So this is what I care about,
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is the Oregon governor's race.
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Very,
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very close.
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One of the weird states in this particular race.
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Where Democrats
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are having a really positive year as far as the climate goes,
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are in real trouble
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in Oregon right now,
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and Tina Kotteka goes up against Christine Drazen,
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it's about 10:00 p.m. Eastern.
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So,
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uh,
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two things that we,
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we,
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uh,
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did a live chat last night
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on PredictableShow.com.
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Uh,
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this is for both paid and free,
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uh,
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subscribers.
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We did this,
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um,
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about the Maine Senate race.
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Tons to say about that.
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I don't know if we'll get to it today,
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but,
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uh,
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we can go back and check out that chat.
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Really,
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really informative,
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I thought,
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uh,
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and,
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uh,
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a fun time talking with all of you last night.
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Uh,
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let's.
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Look at just some of the polls.
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Let me just go through this.
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Let's just open this up.
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Open the,
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open up the,
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what is it?
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The New York Times poll tracker?
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Is that the one you have,
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Adam?
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Pull this up for the Senate,
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and let's just go through what has happened over the past 3 or 4 days
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when it comes to the polls.
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Now,
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one of the things that's important to understand about the polls.
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Uh,
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public polling is really difficult to do.
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It is not a surgical instrument.
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You'll hear me say this a million times.
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It is,
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it is a blunt instrument.
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It will tell you general
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themes and tones.
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It will not tell you who's winning by 1 point or not.
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That's not what they're not good at that.
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Polls don't do a good job at that.
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You shouldn't depend on them for doing that.
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Another thing is they're very expensive
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and difficult to do.
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Media organizations have budgets.
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Campaigns kind of almost don't.
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They have unlimited money at times,
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so they get a lot of private polling and
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polling behind the scenes that tells a different story.
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You'll see that oftentimes reflected in the prediction markets
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when it disagrees
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with the,
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uh,
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the public polling.
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But let me go back to,
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uh,
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so we,
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we talked about the New York Times polls there at the bottom.
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We'll start from the bottom and go up here.
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How about that?
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Uh,
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New York Times,
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uh,
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Ashley Hinson up by 1 point in the New York Times
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poll over Josh Turrick.
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We're gonna talk to Steve Dace in a couple of minutes
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in depth about both the gubernatorial race and the Senate race
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in Iowa.
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Don't miss that because it's a,
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it's a key one and there's tons of value there no matter which side you're on.
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There is tons of value on both sides of this right now
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if you,
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uh,
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if you want to dig it out.
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Georgia had a poll come out.
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This one's basically around expectations.
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Wedgwood has,
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uh,
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uh,
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uh,
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Jon Ossoff
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at a 10.
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That's kind of where I feel like that race is,
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and I,
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you know,
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it's,
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and I'm disappointing if you happen to be a conservative,
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you're like,
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oh gosh,
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I really want Collins to win there.
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Ossoff looks in a very solid position to the point that
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it's not just polling that's telling you that,
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it's Republicans kind of like pulling their money out
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of states like
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Georgia right now.
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New Mexico,
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no surprise,
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an 18 point lead for the Democrats.
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Maine is an interesting one.
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Maine's People's Resource Center has a poll out from a few days ago
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with Troy Jackson up 3 over Collins.
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I mentioned I watched that debate last night.
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I mean,
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look,
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Jackson's not a good candidate.
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Jackson is,
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you know,
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he's an also-ran.
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He's a kind of a guy that's been around in Maine for a while.
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I don't get the sense that people in Maine like him all that much,
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frankly.
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Um,
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but,
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uh,
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you know,
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he's in a good,
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in a bluish sort of state in a bluish sort of year.
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So he definitely has a chance there.
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Collins
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has limitations.
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Because
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of her age and her,
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you know,
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kind of physical,
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uh,
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limitations when it comes to her,
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you know,
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she doesn't have like a,
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a big booming projected voice.
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She,
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it's,
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she comes off the way Susan Collins comes off.
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She is who she is.
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That being said,
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she knows her issues,
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she's a pro,
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she knows what she's doing.
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I mean,
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the fact that like,
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half the debate was spent saying like,
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well,
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I voted with Joe Biden all the time,
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and I swear I never was in favor of abortion like my Democrat opponent here.
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I mean,
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it was a
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weird night.
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But that being said,
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Um,
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uh,
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Jackson,
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uh,
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is favored only by 3 points there.
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This is a toss-up race for me.
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I will also say there's a very weird moment that I
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have to tell you about which where Troy Jackson was like,
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you know what,
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uh,
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they go like,
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do you have for,
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uh,
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voter ID?
288
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And Troy Jackson's like,
289
00:05:56.320 --> 00:05:56.399
well,
290
00:05:56.470 --> 00:05:56.589
no,
291
00:05:56.670 --> 00:05:57.079
of course not.
292
00:05:57.149 --> 00:05:57.980
I'm a logger.
293
00:05:58.820 --> 00:05:58.959
You know,
294
00:05:59.040 --> 00:06:01.750
I'm gonna be out logging all day and then I didn't want to go to the polls.
295
00:06:01.799 --> 00:06:02.959
I can't bring my ID.
296
00:06:03.519 --> 00:06:05.359
You can't bring your ID to log?
297
00:06:05.390 --> 00:06:06.070
Is that a thing?
298
00:06:06.160 --> 00:06:06.920
Does anyone know?
299
00:06:07.200 --> 00:06:07.869
Is that a thing?
300
00:06:08.480 --> 00:06:10.239
Is that a thing that people know that I don't know?
301
00:06:10.279 --> 00:06:11.040
I'm not from Maine,
302
00:06:11.119 --> 00:06:12.100
I am from the Northeast.
303
00:06:12.399 --> 00:06:13.540
Never heard that one before.
304
00:06:14.000 --> 00:06:16.160
You can't bring your ID with you when you log.
305
00:06:16.269 --> 00:06:16.559
When you're,
306
00:06:16.600 --> 00:06:17.660
when you're logging,
307
00:06:17.839 --> 00:06:18.630
a tiny,
308
00:06:18.720 --> 00:06:19.299
tiny,
309
00:06:19.480 --> 00:06:20.179
thin
310
00:06:20.359 --> 00:06:21.179
plastic
311
00:06:21.279 --> 00:06:23.750
rectangle in your pocket is impossible.
312
00:06:23.880 --> 00:06:24.200
And of course,
313
00:06:24.239 --> 00:06:26.149
you can't even just store it in your car
314
00:06:26.320 --> 00:06:26.980
or your truck.
315
00:06:27.359 --> 00:06:27.480
You know,
316
00:06:27.519 --> 00:06:29.170
the one you're bringing to the logging.
317
00:06:29.600 --> 00:06:32.500
You can't bring your driver's license while you drive the truck
318
00:06:33.040 --> 00:06:34.000
to the logging
319
00:06:34.160 --> 00:06:35.149
and then go to the voters,
320
00:06:35.200 --> 00:06:35.670
uh,
321
00:06:35.799 --> 00:06:35.920
you know,
322
00:06:36.000 --> 00:06:36.880
the voting booth after that.
323
00:06:37.119 --> 00:06:37.480
So,
324
00:06:37.630 --> 00:06:38.230
just an absurd,
325
00:06:38.279 --> 00:06:38.799
absurd debate.
326
00:06:38.880 --> 00:06:39.260
Anyway,
327
00:06:39.399 --> 00:06:39.600
uh,
328
00:06:39.679 --> 00:06:39.829
OK,
329
00:06:39.910 --> 00:06:40.470
a couple more here.
330
00:06:40.549 --> 00:06:40.859
Michigan,
331
00:06:40.959 --> 00:06:42.390
El Sayed +4,
332
00:06:42.399 --> 00:06:43.589
according to Mitchell.
333
00:06:43.839 --> 00:06:44.079
Again,
334
00:06:44.119 --> 00:06:45.100
that race has been
335
00:06:45.279 --> 00:06:46.119
pretty razor thin.
336
00:06:46.279 --> 00:06:46.399
Uh,
337
00:06:46.470 --> 00:06:47.679
the polling has been all over the board,
338
00:06:47.839 --> 00:06:49.750
slightly maybe for El Sayed in most polls.
339
00:06:50.160 --> 00:06:50.399
Maine,
340
00:06:50.600 --> 00:06:50.720
again,
341
00:06:50.880 --> 00:06:51.160
another one,
342
00:06:51.239 --> 00:06:51.920
Jackson + 4.
343
00:06:52.000 --> 00:06:52.230
You see,
344
00:06:52.239 --> 00:06:53.940
it's basically been in that area,
345
00:06:54.119 --> 00:06:54.269
uh,
346
00:06:54.359 --> 00:06:54.559
though,
347
00:06:54.679 --> 00:06:55.239
at times,
348
00:06:55.320 --> 00:06:55.480
um,
349
00:06:55.640 --> 00:06:56.149
I believe,
350
00:06:56.200 --> 00:06:56.519
um,
351
00:06:56.679 --> 00:06:58.160
the New York Times poll had.
352
00:06:58.529 --> 00:06:59.309
Uh,
353
00:06:59.450 --> 00:07:00.410
Collins up by 1,
354
00:07:00.489 --> 00:07:01.040
I think it was.
355
00:07:01.329 --> 00:07:01.769
Illinois,
356
00:07:01.850 --> 00:07:02.529
no surprise here,
357
00:07:02.649 --> 00:07:03.890
large lead for the Democrats.
358
00:07:04.019 --> 00:07:05.450
Stratton up by 13.
359
00:07:05.769 --> 00:07:06.040
Uh,
360
00:07:06.130 --> 00:07:06.760
this one is,
361
00:07:07.089 --> 00:07:09.670
has been a race where I've found real value in the prediction markets.
362
00:07:09.959 --> 00:07:10.160
Um,
363
00:07:10.290 --> 00:07:11.190
I just,
364
00:07:11.649 --> 00:07:13.489
I am not optimistic for Sununu to,
365
00:07:13.640 --> 00:07:13.970
to win.
366
00:07:14.049 --> 00:07:16.010
I think he'll keep it closer than he probably should.
367
00:07:16.119 --> 00:07:16.730
He's a very,
368
00:07:16.769 --> 00:07:16.959
uh,
369
00:07:17.049 --> 00:07:18.149
well-known figure there.
370
00:07:18.579 --> 00:07:18.769
Um,
371
00:07:18.850 --> 00:07:20.070
and Chris Pappas isn't a,
372
00:07:20.250 --> 00:07:21.850
a terrible candidate for the Democrats.
373
00:07:21.890 --> 00:07:22.589
It's not like they,
374
00:07:22.929 --> 00:07:23.170
You know,
375
00:07:23.250 --> 00:07:24.589
they picked an Al Sayed there,
376
00:07:24.929 --> 00:07:26.149
but he's not dynamic.
377
00:07:26.320 --> 00:07:28.829
And I think Sununu has an outside chance.
378
00:07:28.850 --> 00:07:29.600
In another year,
379
00:07:29.649 --> 00:07:30.450
I think he could have won,
380
00:07:30.570 --> 00:07:30.839
but,
381
00:07:30.850 --> 00:07:31.040
uh,
382
00:07:31.089 --> 00:07:31.359
this one,
383
00:07:31.410 --> 00:07:31.519
I,
384
00:07:31.600 --> 00:07:32.309
I do feel like,
385
00:07:32.700 --> 00:07:32.859
Uh,
386
00:07:33.140 --> 00:07:33.820
Democrats are favored there.
387
00:07:33.859 --> 00:07:34.600
I have a position
388
00:07:34.940 --> 00:07:36.690
on Pappas there to win.
389
00:07:37.019 --> 00:07:37.589
Kansas,
390
00:07:37.700 --> 00:07:37.709
uh,
391
00:07:38.660 --> 00:07:39.519
this is probably the most
392
00:07:39.730 --> 00:07:41.540
unbelievable race of the entire cycle.
393
00:07:41.899 --> 00:07:42.859
Kansas has not had,
394
00:07:42.959 --> 00:07:42.970
uh,
395
00:07:43.019 --> 00:07:45.980
it's been 92 years since a Democrat won a Senate race in Kansas,
396
00:07:46.170 --> 00:07:49.609
and really poll after poll has this race kind of looking like this.
397
00:07:49.820 --> 00:07:51.809
Hamilton with a very slight lead,
398
00:07:51.820 --> 00:07:52.260
in this case,
399
00:07:52.339 --> 00:07:53.010
3 points,
400
00:07:53.019 --> 00:07:53.820
according to YouGov.
401
00:07:54.059 --> 00:07:55.839
YouGov has a new Texas poll out as well.
402
00:07:56.320 --> 00:07:58.239
Tallarico up by 6.
403
00:07:58.709 --> 00:08:02.570
That's sort of the high end of where Tallarico has typically been in that race.
404
00:08:02.869 --> 00:08:03.230
But again,
405
00:08:03.309 --> 00:08:04.339
you get the sense of like,
406
00:08:04.350 --> 00:08:06.179
the high end is Tallarico + 6,
407
00:08:06.309 --> 00:08:06.869
these other races,
408
00:08:06.910 --> 00:08:07.760
it's like 3.
409
00:08:08.269 --> 00:08:08.540
And you,
410
00:08:08.589 --> 00:08:10.429
you do get the sense that Paxson is in trouble,
411
00:08:10.540 --> 00:08:10.660
uh,
412
00:08:10.670 --> 00:08:10.839
in,
413
00:08:10.929 --> 00:08:11.429
in Texas.
414
00:08:11.510 --> 00:08:13.290
A lot of people ask me about that all the time.
415
00:08:13.579 --> 00:08:13.779
Um,
416
00:08:13.869 --> 00:08:15.500
Osborne is up by 1,
417
00:08:15.510 --> 00:08:16.149
according to YouGov.
418
00:08:16.190 --> 00:08:18.100
You'll see the YouGov polls all sort of,
419
00:08:18.190 --> 00:08:18.869
I would say,
420
00:08:19.070 --> 00:08:20.230
leaning a little bit left,
421
00:08:20.309 --> 00:08:23.579
a little bit of a House effect here towards the Democratic candidates.
422
00:08:23.839 --> 00:08:24.709
Although in Michigan,
423
00:08:24.829 --> 00:08:28.109
only 1 point lead for El Sayed over Rodgers according to YouGov.
424
00:08:28.489 --> 00:08:28.760
Uh,
425
00:08:28.769 --> 00:08:29.690
a couple more you goovs here.
426
00:08:29.779 --> 00:08:31.459
New Hampshire has Pappas up by 8.
427
00:08:31.540 --> 00:08:32.650
It's about the norm.
428
00:08:33.020 --> 00:08:36.500
Moody up by 5 is a little low for the lead for Ashley Moody.
429
00:08:36.580 --> 00:08:38.440
She's been up by more in a lot of polls
430
00:08:38.700 --> 00:08:39.609
in that particular race.
431
00:08:39.739 --> 00:08:40.919
This is a very weird thing.
432
00:08:41.880 --> 00:08:43.239
It's Alaska polls,
433
00:08:43.330 --> 00:08:43.479
uh,
434
00:08:43.650 --> 00:08:43.719
I,
435
00:08:43.799 --> 00:08:43.880
I,
436
00:08:43.989 --> 00:08:44.419
you know,
437
00:08:44.679 --> 00:08:45.669
uh,
438
00:08:45.799 --> 00:08:46.119
let's not,
439
00:08:46.250 --> 00:08:46.940
uh,
440
00:08:47.359 --> 00:08:48.320
jump ahead of ourselves here,
441
00:08:48.400 --> 00:08:48.679
but Ash,
442
00:08:48.799 --> 00:08:48.950
uh,
443
00:08:49.000 --> 00:08:49.390
uh,
444
00:08:49.400 --> 00:08:50.320
Alaska has a,
445
00:08:50.630 --> 00:08:50.710
uh,
446
00:08:50.799 --> 00:08:52.419
Peltola up by 2
447
00:08:52.840 --> 00:08:53.799
in the ranked choice round one.
448
00:08:54.880 --> 00:08:55.080
And I,
449
00:08:55.119 --> 00:08:55.469
I,
450
00:08:55.880 --> 00:08:55.960
you,
451
00:08:56.039 --> 00:08:57.340
you deserve a Medal of Honor,
452
00:08:57.530 --> 00:08:57.669
uh,
453
00:08:57.750 --> 00:08:58.179
honestly,
454
00:08:58.270 --> 00:08:58.440
uh.
455
00:08:58.559 --> 00:08:58.679
To,
456
00:08:58.719 --> 00:09:01.349
to get through some of these polls in Alaska because of the ranked choice thing,
457
00:09:01.400 --> 00:09:01.619
but
458
00:09:01.719 --> 00:09:02.919
Peltola up by only 2.
459
00:09:03.000 --> 00:09:04.359
That's a bad result for Peltola.
460
00:09:04.390 --> 00:09:06.099
She's been higher than that in a lot of these polls.
461
00:09:06.309 --> 00:09:06.510
Uh,
462
00:09:06.710 --> 00:09:09.599
Mason-Dixon has Moody up by 10 in Florida,
463
00:09:09.760 --> 00:09:12.159
kind of a little bit more where I expect that one to land.
464
00:09:12.239 --> 00:09:15.219
I don't really believe the polls showing Angie Nixon all that close.
465
00:09:15.559 --> 00:09:18.039
Iowa from Suffolk has Turic up by 4.
466
00:09:18.440 --> 00:09:18.799
Uh,
467
00:09:18.960 --> 00:09:20.099
points in that race.
468
00:09:20.280 --> 00:09:20.479
Uh,
469
00:09:20.719 --> 00:09:21.200
Kansas,
470
00:09:21.320 --> 00:09:22.520
Hamilton up by 5.
471
00:09:22.700 --> 00:09:23.159
Another poll.
472
00:09:23.239 --> 00:09:24.200
Now this is a Democratic,
473
00:09:24.320 --> 00:09:25.200
this is a Hamilton poll,
474
00:09:25.270 --> 00:09:25.940
so I don't know how much,
475
00:09:25.960 --> 00:09:27.200
how crazy you want to be with that one,
476
00:09:27.440 --> 00:09:29.700
but he's up by 5 according to his own campaign.
477
00:09:29.960 --> 00:09:31.919
And Michigan has a Qantas poll.
478
00:09:32.159 --> 00:09:32.690
Qantas
479
00:09:32.840 --> 00:09:36.460
typically leading maybe a little bit more favorable to Republicans occasionally,
480
00:09:36.599 --> 00:09:37.719
slight House effect there.
481
00:09:38.039 --> 00:09:39.280
El Sayed up by 1.
482
00:09:39.359 --> 00:09:39.479
All right,
483
00:09:39.559 --> 00:09:40.039
I'll go to,
484
00:09:40.159 --> 00:09:40.280
uh,
485
00:09:40.320 --> 00:09:41.280
the Governor Chorus.
486
00:09:41.320 --> 00:09:41.520
Just get,
487
00:09:41.590 --> 00:09:41.940
let's get,
488
00:09:42.039 --> 00:09:42.320
um,
489
00:09:42.440 --> 00:09:43.450
give me the most recent,
490
00:09:43.460 --> 00:09:43.500
uh,
491
00:09:43.599 --> 00:09:45.380
polls there because we're gonna run out of time here.
492
00:09:45.849 --> 00:09:46.169
Uh,
493
00:09:46.419 --> 00:09:46.530
I've been,
494
00:09:46.679 --> 00:09:47.090
there's a lot.
495
00:09:47.210 --> 00:09:48.729
This is how much penny polls are out
496
00:09:48.929 --> 00:09:49.169
right now.
497
00:09:49.210 --> 00:09:50.010
It's really incredible.
498
00:09:50.080 --> 00:09:51.289
Let's go to the gubernatorial side.
499
00:09:51.570 --> 00:09:52.130
Vermont,
500
00:09:52.409 --> 00:09:53.450
this is a race to watch.
501
00:09:53.570 --> 00:09:53.640
Uh,
502
00:09:53.770 --> 00:09:55.010
Phil Scott's up by 3,
503
00:09:55.049 --> 00:09:57.010
and I don't know what to believe about this,
504
00:09:57.210 --> 00:09:57.650
but I,
505
00:09:57.929 --> 00:09:59.950
both Ayotte in New Hampshire and Scott,
506
00:10:00.080 --> 00:10:01.770
both Republicans and sort of.
507
00:10:01.984 --> 00:10:02.804
Democratic states,
508
00:10:03.145 --> 00:10:03.505
uh,
509
00:10:03.625 --> 00:10:04.525
the Republican
510
00:10:04.864 --> 00:10:06.575
in a fringy year could be vulnerable,
511
00:10:06.585 --> 00:10:10.184
and you can get good prices on the Democrat in those states if you want to be risky,
512
00:10:10.265 --> 00:10:11.375
if you want a lot of upside.
513
00:10:11.705 --> 00:10:13.114
Josh Shapiro gonna win in a landslide,
514
00:10:13.224 --> 00:10:14.304
looks like in Pennsylvania.
515
00:10:14.424 --> 00:10:14.835
Hochel,
516
00:10:15.244 --> 00:10:15.255
uh,
517
00:10:15.265 --> 00:10:16.255
1112 points,
518
00:10:16.304 --> 00:10:17.965
I think is about where she'll probably land.
519
00:10:18.479 --> 00:10:18.919
Rob Sand,
520
00:10:19.000 --> 00:10:20.880
we're gonna talk about this race here in just a minute.
521
00:10:21.159 --> 00:10:23.390
12-point lead in this poll from Suffolk.
522
00:10:23.469 --> 00:10:24.599
That's a huge lead.
523
00:10:24.679 --> 00:10:25.909
I don't know if I believe that.
524
00:10:26.119 --> 00:10:27.330
You can get Zach Lane very,
525
00:10:27.440 --> 00:10:27.659
very,
526
00:10:27.719 --> 00:10:28.080
um,
527
00:10:28.359 --> 00:10:29.549
cheaply in prediction markets.
528
00:10:29.739 --> 00:10:30.469
We'll talk to Steve,
529
00:10:30.799 --> 00:10:32.080
see what he thinks about that.
530
00:10:32.460 --> 00:10:32.770
Uh,
531
00:10:32.869 --> 00:10:33.950
I like Byron Donalds a lot.
532
00:10:33.989 --> 00:10:35.929
You can get him in the 70s in these markets,
533
00:10:35.940 --> 00:10:37.469
and I think he's gonna win there.
534
00:10:37.510 --> 00:10:38.260
I think Florida is,
535
00:10:38.309 --> 00:10:39.950
is a nice little cushion.
536
00:10:40.219 --> 00:10:43.609
Might be one of those places that has a wall for Republicans in a race like this.
537
00:10:43.869 --> 00:10:44.070
All right,
538
00:10:44.179 --> 00:10:44.299
uh,
539
00:10:44.380 --> 00:10:44.789
that's probably enough.
540
00:10:44.849 --> 00:10:46.190
Another Florida poll has Donald's up too.
541
00:10:46.349 --> 00:10:47.809
Give me the predictable Senate board if you would.
542
00:10:48.109 --> 00:10:50.049
The Senate board is available to you for free.
543
00:10:50.229 --> 00:10:51.299
I would love you to post these.
544
00:10:51.780 --> 00:10:52.030
Share them.
545
00:10:52.099 --> 00:10:52.229
There's,
546
00:10:52.299 --> 00:10:53.299
if you see in the upper right-hand corner,
547
00:10:53.349 --> 00:10:54.710
there's a share board button.
548
00:10:54.750 --> 00:10:56.460
You can share what your board looks like.
549
00:10:56.739 --> 00:10:57.179
This is one,
550
00:10:57.190 --> 00:10:58.580
that's actually a little old,
551
00:10:58.650 --> 00:10:59.890
but we need to get this updated.
552
00:11:00.510 --> 00:11:01.669
I think I would move,
553
00:11:01.979 --> 00:11:02.109
uh,
554
00:11:02.179 --> 00:11:02.669
let's start here.
555
00:11:02.780 --> 00:11:04.229
We'll move Texas to a toss-up.
556
00:11:04.309 --> 00:11:05.570
I think at this point is fair.
557
00:11:05.909 --> 00:11:08.090
Kansas probably needs to be in the toss-up as well.
558
00:11:08.710 --> 00:11:09.150
Um,
559
00:11:09.270 --> 00:11:10.489
and I would move,
560
00:11:10.789 --> 00:11:11.919
uh,
561
00:11:12.109 --> 00:11:12.510
let's see,
562
00:11:12.590 --> 00:11:13.489
I would move,
563
00:11:13.869 --> 00:11:15.010
uh,
564
00:11:15.429 --> 00:11:15.789
we moved,
565
00:11:15.900 --> 00:11:16.690
it looks like we moved
566
00:11:17.150 --> 00:11:18.429
Michigan and Minnesota,
567
00:11:18.609 --> 00:11:19.049
uh,
568
00:11:19.190 --> 00:11:19.510
Michigan,
569
00:11:19.590 --> 00:11:20.400
I think I'd,
570
00:11:21.349 --> 00:11:22.669
we're bouncing back and forth here.
571
00:11:23.119 --> 00:11:23.320
Uh,
572
00:11:23.450 --> 00:11:23.570
sorry,
573
00:11:23.690 --> 00:11:23.849
the,
574
00:11:23.929 --> 00:11:25.880
the board I think we had set earlier and,
575
00:11:25.890 --> 00:11:26.250
um,
576
00:11:26.369 --> 00:11:27.200
and hadn't reset.
577
00:11:27.400 --> 00:11:27.530
OK,
578
00:11:27.599 --> 00:11:28.830
let me just look at this,
579
00:11:28.849 --> 00:11:29.119
uh,
580
00:11:29.130 --> 00:11:30.140
right now as we stand.
581
00:11:30.250 --> 00:11:30.489
That's all right,
582
00:11:30.609 --> 00:11:31.510
just keep it right there.
583
00:11:31.770 --> 00:11:32.210
Um,
584
00:11:32.330 --> 00:11:32.849
OK,
585
00:11:33.049 --> 00:11:33.369
Iowa,
586
00:11:33.409 --> 00:11:34.450
I think is still lean right.
587
00:11:34.650 --> 00:11:34.900
Maine,
588
00:11:34.969 --> 00:11:36.950
I think I'd put to the toss-up category here,
589
00:11:37.210 --> 00:11:37.770
Adam.
590
00:11:38.210 --> 00:11:38.530
Um,
591
00:11:38.650 --> 00:11:39.640
and Minnesota,
592
00:11:39.729 --> 00:11:40.440
Michigan,
593
00:11:40.609 --> 00:11:42.090
I still put Michigan as a toss-up.
594
00:11:42.169 --> 00:11:43.159
If I'm being honest about it,
595
00:11:43.210 --> 00:11:44.690
I still think that's a toss-up race.
596
00:11:45.299 --> 00:11:45.599
Um,
597
00:11:45.780 --> 00:11:47.869
I think I probably have to
598
00:11:49.539 --> 00:11:52.450
keep Nebra put Nebraska in the lean Republican right now.
599
00:11:52.780 --> 00:11:55.619
The other one I think is not getting a lot of attention is the South Carolina race.
600
00:11:55.700 --> 00:11:56.979
I don't know what's gonna happen there,
601
00:11:57.299 --> 00:11:57.450
um,
602
00:11:57.659 --> 00:11:59.840
because I just don't know what to get from Darlene Graham.
603
00:12:00.140 --> 00:12:01.840
I'm a little nervous about that one
604
00:12:02.059 --> 00:12:04.169
right now against Annie Andrews.
605
00:12:04.179 --> 00:12:05.030
That race is closer,
606
00:12:05.179 --> 00:12:06.119
too close for comfort.
607
00:12:06.599 --> 00:12:06.830
But,
608
00:12:06.840 --> 00:12:07.030
uh,
609
00:12:07.070 --> 00:12:07.690
that's what I would keep,
610
00:12:07.840 --> 00:12:07.909
uh,
611
00:12:08.000 --> 00:12:09.359
we'll keep it likely for now,
612
00:12:09.400 --> 00:12:09.719
and that's,
613
00:12:09.770 --> 00:12:11.080
that's probably where I wanna keep this.
614
00:12:11.159 --> 00:12:13.599
So give me a reveal of where I put this board.
615
00:12:13.679 --> 00:12:14.150
Look at that.
616
00:12:14.640 --> 00:12:15.280
Democrats 49,
617
00:12:15.630 --> 00:12:16.320
Republicans 47.
618
00:12:16.400 --> 00:12:18.719
They only have to pick off one of these races.
619
00:12:18.880 --> 00:12:20.510
There are 4 toss-ups.
620
00:12:20.770 --> 00:12:23.099
There are 2 lean Republicans they can go after.
621
00:12:23.409 --> 00:12:23.500
Uh,
622
00:12:23.570 --> 00:12:25.049
and that's of course assuming they lead,
623
00:12:25.179 --> 00:12:25.419
they,
624
00:12:25.539 --> 00:12:25.809
uh,
625
00:12:26.059 --> 00:12:27.520
do win those lean Democratic
626
00:12:27.859 --> 00:12:28.049
votes,
627
00:12:28.099 --> 00:12:28.299
which,
628
00:12:28.320 --> 00:12:28.619
alas,
629
00:12:28.809 --> 00:12:29.299
to be fair,
630
00:12:29.460 --> 00:12:29.900
Minnesota,
631
00:12:30.059 --> 00:12:30.500
Alaska,
632
00:12:30.580 --> 00:12:31.900
and Ohio are very close.
633
00:12:32.059 --> 00:12:32.359
So,
634
00:12:32.419 --> 00:12:33.260
that's where I'm standing on the,
635
00:12:33.330 --> 00:12:33.409
uh,
636
00:12:33.500 --> 00:12:33.900
Senate board.
637
00:12:34.049 --> 00:12:34.219
Again,
638
00:12:34.260 --> 00:12:35.619
you can go to predictableShow.com.
639
00:12:35.690 --> 00:12:36.530
This is a free resource.
640
00:12:36.580 --> 00:12:37.340
You'll see it at the top.
641
00:12:37.539 --> 00:12:38.669
There's a midterms tab,
642
00:12:39.030 --> 00:12:39.489
drop down.
643
00:12:39.659 --> 00:12:40.650
It'll show you the Senate board,
644
00:12:40.770 --> 00:12:41.210
click on that.
645
00:12:41.219 --> 00:12:41.960
It's totally free.
646
00:12:42.299 --> 00:12:42.619
Go on there,
647
00:12:42.690 --> 00:12:43.940
drag the states however you want,
648
00:12:44.020 --> 00:12:45.500
and then share them on social media.
649
00:12:45.619 --> 00:12:47.090
Share them to the predictable chat.
650
00:12:47.299 --> 00:12:48.359
I wanna see where you are,
651
00:12:48.380 --> 00:12:48.919
honestly,
652
00:12:48.940 --> 00:12:49.130
on,
653
00:12:49.219 --> 00:12:50.510
on the Senate right now cause it's.
654
00:12:51.190 --> 00:12:51.909
It's a wild one.
655
00:12:52.020 --> 00:12:52.190
OK,
656
00:12:52.309 --> 00:12:53.140
I wanna get to Steve Dace.
657
00:12:53.270 --> 00:12:54.429
Dace is coming up here in a minute.
658
00:12:54.500 --> 00:12:55.710
He's gonna give you everything on Iowa.
659
00:12:55.820 --> 00:12:56.429
We're gonna get everything on,
660
00:12:56.510 --> 00:12:56.700
on,
661
00:12:56.789 --> 00:12:59.099
on what he's hearing from around the country as well.
662
00:12:59.390 --> 00:13:00.150
That comes up next.
663
00:13:17.099 --> 00:13:18.460
I want to bring in Steve Dace,
664
00:13:18.609 --> 00:13:18.760
uh,
665
00:13:18.770 --> 00:13:19.320
to the program.
666
00:13:19.409 --> 00:13:21.580
He's the host of the Steve Dace Show on Blaze TV,
667
00:13:22.000 --> 00:13:26.179
author of The Fourth Reich confronting COVID fascism with a new Nuremberg trial.
668
00:13:26.419 --> 00:13:28.080
So this never happens again.
669
00:13:28.460 --> 00:13:29.500
He knows,
670
00:13:29.549 --> 00:13:29.890
uh,
671
00:13:30.039 --> 00:13:31.750
the insides of politics,
672
00:13:31.780 --> 00:13:32.219
inside and out,
673
00:13:32.330 --> 00:13:32.739
honestly,
674
00:13:32.809 --> 00:13:33.020
uh,
675
00:13:33.130 --> 00:13:33.299
uh,
676
00:13:33.419 --> 00:13:35.479
not only in Iowa but all over the country.
677
00:13:35.700 --> 00:13:39.320
And I wanted to bring him in to kind of get an idea of what we're looking at here
678
00:13:39.460 --> 00:13:40.820
over the next month or so.
679
00:13:41.059 --> 00:13:41.289
Steve,
680
00:13:41.369 --> 00:13:42.059
welcome to the program.
681
00:13:42.750 --> 00:13:43.119
Good to see you,
682
00:13:43.150 --> 00:13:43.309
brother.
683
00:13:43.390 --> 00:13:43.719
How are you?
684
00:13:43.869 --> 00:13:44.070
Uh,
685
00:13:44.270 --> 00:13:44.349
good,
686
00:13:44.429 --> 00:13:44.549
man.
687
00:13:44.630 --> 00:13:45.229
I appreciate it.
688
00:13:45.340 --> 00:13:45.549
Um,
689
00:13:45.630 --> 00:13:45.830
I,
690
00:13:45.950 --> 00:13:47.349
I wanted to bring you in because I wanted to talk to you,
691
00:13:47.429 --> 00:13:47.549
you know,
692
00:13:47.789 --> 00:13:49.530
this is a show about prediction markets and
693
00:13:49.669 --> 00:13:50.950
how they relate to elections,
694
00:13:50.989 --> 00:13:51.289
and,
695
00:13:51.590 --> 00:13:51.830
um,
696
00:13:51.940 --> 00:13:52.289
you know,
697
00:13:52.390 --> 00:13:52.780
I,
698
00:13:52.909 --> 00:13:54.580
I saw some comments from you,
699
00:13:54.669 --> 00:13:54.739
uh,
700
00:13:54.789 --> 00:13:54.880
uh,
701
00:13:54.950 --> 00:13:57.030
a couple of weeks ago that I really wanted to,
702
00:13:57.179 --> 00:13:58.229
to get you on to talk about.
703
00:13:58.510 --> 00:13:59.070
It was,
704
00:13:59.080 --> 00:13:59.229
uh,
705
00:13:59.340 --> 00:13:59.750
not only,
706
00:13:59.909 --> 00:14:00.190
uh,
707
00:14:00.200 --> 00:14:00.229
on,
708
00:14:00.280 --> 00:14:01.219
I saw it on your social media,
709
00:14:01.270 --> 00:14:01.729
but it was
710
00:14:01.859 --> 00:14:02.190
everywhere.
711
00:14:02.229 --> 00:14:02.349
I mean,
712
00:14:02.570 --> 00:14:02.700
you know,
713
00:14:02.940 --> 00:14:04.520
Washington Post wrote about it in this story.
714
00:14:04.590 --> 00:14:05.150
In Iowa,
715
00:14:05.510 --> 00:14:06.130
Republicans feel
716
00:14:06.429 --> 00:14:09.250
the heat and try to motivate a frustrated base.
717
00:14:09.469 --> 00:14:10.109
They talk about,
718
00:14:10.150 --> 00:14:10.380
uh,
719
00:14:10.390 --> 00:14:12.669
how your write up on this was how you were
720
00:14:12.669 --> 00:14:15.700
talking about the Iran war as a political albatross.
721
00:14:15.890 --> 00:14:16.109
This,
722
00:14:16.190 --> 00:14:16.849
this kind of
723
00:14:17.070 --> 00:14:17.809
came from,
724
00:14:18.030 --> 00:14:18.630
uh,
725
00:14:18.710 --> 00:14:19.710
a conversation you had with,
726
00:14:19.789 --> 00:14:21.469
was is it Republican pollsters in Iowa.
727
00:14:21.520 --> 00:14:22.409
Can you tell us about this?
728
00:14:23.320 --> 00:14:23.450
Yeah,
729
00:14:23.570 --> 00:14:24.239
so there was a,
730
00:14:24.330 --> 00:14:25.830
there was a meeting held 3 weeks ago,
731
00:14:26.130 --> 00:14:26.520
uh,
732
00:14:26.729 --> 00:14:29.830
with the Republican delegation in the Iowa State House,
733
00:14:30.390 --> 00:14:32.969
and they met with their internal pollers.
734
00:14:33.330 --> 00:14:33.549
So,
735
00:14:33.729 --> 00:14:33.750
uh,
736
00:14:33.880 --> 00:14:34.349
you know,
737
00:14:34.700 --> 00:14:34.799
I,
738
00:14:34.890 --> 00:14:36.650
I used to pour over,
739
00:14:36.820 --> 00:14:36.919
uh,
740
00:14:37.010 --> 00:14:38.500
having worked in politics for many years,
741
00:14:38.570 --> 00:14:41.429
I used to pour over a lot of media polls and public polls.
742
00:14:41.809 --> 00:14:42.679
I don't anymore.
743
00:14:42.969 --> 00:14:43.169
I mean,
744
00:14:43.250 --> 00:14:43.400
I,
745
00:14:43.489 --> 00:14:44.010
I'm even,
746
00:14:44.059 --> 00:14:45.609
I'm kind of loosely aware.
747
00:14:46.270 --> 00:14:46.640
Of,
748
00:14:46.789 --> 00:14:47.559
of what they say.
749
00:14:47.640 --> 00:14:48.799
And if I really want to know what they say,
750
00:14:48.919 --> 00:14:51.820
I just look at prediction markets because they're always reacting to what they say.
751
00:14:52.200 --> 00:14:52.539
All right?
752
00:14:52.640 --> 00:14:53.039
So,
753
00:14:53.239 --> 00:14:53.669
um,
754
00:14:54.239 --> 00:14:54.640
so I,
755
00:14:54.719 --> 00:14:55.039
I,
756
00:14:55.150 --> 00:14:56.200
I put this out there though,
757
00:14:56.280 --> 00:14:57.760
because this was our own pollsters.
758
00:14:58.169 --> 00:14:58.799
And,
759
00:14:59.159 --> 00:14:59.359
uh,
760
00:14:59.440 --> 00:15:03.159
I know the pollster who they who the party hired to do this briefing.
761
00:15:03.309 --> 00:15:04.059
He's a friend of mine,
762
00:15:04.609 --> 00:15:04.840
uh,
763
00:15:04.940 --> 00:15:07.099
and he worked for the Trump 2024 campaign.
764
00:15:07.200 --> 00:15:07.400
I mean,
765
00:15:07.469 --> 00:15:08.280
if I ran for office,
766
00:15:08.349 --> 00:15:10.400
he'd be on a shortlist of pollsters I'd hire.
767
00:15:10.859 --> 00:15:11.109
So,
768
00:15:11.119 --> 00:15:12.679
that's why I took it seriously.
769
00:15:13.059 --> 00:15:13.380
And,
770
00:15:13.460 --> 00:15:16.969
and then the other reason I put it out there is because there were 5 weeks out and,
771
00:15:17.109 --> 00:15:18.780
and there's a chance now to,
772
00:15:18.900 --> 00:15:19.179
to,
773
00:15:19.580 --> 00:15:19.650
to,
774
00:15:19.739 --> 00:15:21.260
we don't have to just sit here and take an L.
775
00:15:21.340 --> 00:15:21.880
We're behind,
776
00:15:22.479 --> 00:15:22.700
right?
777
00:15:22.869 --> 00:15:23.159
And,
778
00:15:23.260 --> 00:15:23.419
you know,
779
00:15:23.580 --> 00:15:25.140
we're past the first quarter of the game,
780
00:15:25.210 --> 00:15:25.539
but,
781
00:15:25.859 --> 00:15:26.059
you know,
782
00:15:26.219 --> 00:15:26.270
there,
783
00:15:26.380 --> 00:15:27.919
there's still a lot of game to be played here.
784
00:15:28.070 --> 00:15:28.640
This is still,
785
00:15:28.700 --> 00:15:28.940
I guess,
786
00:15:29.020 --> 00:15:29.099
I,
787
00:15:29.340 --> 00:15:30.299
maybe I wouldn't say winnable.
788
00:15:30.369 --> 00:15:31.369
How about survivable?
789
00:15:31.580 --> 00:15:32.500
I think it's survivable.
790
00:15:32.919 --> 00:15:34.849
And so I put this out there because I was seeing a lot of,
791
00:15:34.859 --> 00:15:35.239
frankly,
792
00:15:35.280 --> 00:15:36.070
lame ads.
793
00:15:36.280 --> 00:15:36.599
You know,
794
00:15:36.840 --> 00:15:37.070
we've got,
795
00:15:37.119 --> 00:15:37.250
I,
796
00:15:37.400 --> 00:15:38.710
I saw one Senate race in,
797
00:15:38.760 --> 00:15:39.340
in the country,
798
00:15:39.520 --> 00:15:39.750
Stu,
799
00:15:39.830 --> 00:15:40.219
where
800
00:15:40.400 --> 00:15:43.679
the Democrat is accusing the Republican of helping to harbor,
801
00:15:44.039 --> 00:15:44.270
uh,
802
00:15:44.400 --> 00:15:45.400
Epstein rapists.
803
00:15:46.169 --> 00:15:47.969
And then the Republican is coming back with,
804
00:15:48.080 --> 00:15:48.250
well,
805
00:15:48.409 --> 00:15:50.739
how many votes did you miss when you were in the state legislature?
806
00:15:50.809 --> 00:15:50.969
I mean,
807
00:15:51.010 --> 00:15:51.169
that,
808
00:15:51.289 --> 00:15:52.250
that's not gonna cut it.
809
00:15:52.330 --> 00:15:52.530
OK.
810
00:15:52.650 --> 00:15:53.070
That's,
811
00:15:53.530 --> 00:15:53.640
you're,
812
00:15:53.690 --> 00:15:55.369
you're literally being accused of,
813
00:15:55.450 --> 00:15:56.960
of holding a satanic agent,
814
00:15:57.190 --> 00:15:57.210
yeah,
815
00:15:57.330 --> 00:15:57.700
you know,
816
00:15:57.809 --> 00:15:57.960
uh,
817
00:15:58.090 --> 00:15:59.010
from justice,
818
00:15:59.400 --> 00:15:59.929
and your,
819
00:16:00.010 --> 00:16:00.679
your comeback is,
820
00:16:00.760 --> 00:16:00.770
well,
821
00:16:00.849 --> 00:16:02.919
I took attendance at class and you weren't there enough.
822
00:16:02.989 --> 00:16:03.989
That's not gonna cut it.
823
00:16:04.369 --> 00:16:04.479
If,
824
00:16:04.530 --> 00:16:06.609
if it had been a week or two before the election,
825
00:16:06.690 --> 00:16:08.929
I probably don't say anything because I don't want to be a
826
00:16:08.929 --> 00:16:11.330
part of a demoralization op because my name's not Tucker Carlson.
827
00:16:11.820 --> 00:16:12.179
So,
828
00:16:12.190 --> 00:16:13.190
since it was 5 weeks,
829
00:16:13.330 --> 00:16:13.390
uh,
830
00:16:13.469 --> 00:16:14.229
5 weeks out,
831
00:16:14.390 --> 00:16:14.510
sorry,
832
00:16:14.590 --> 00:16:15.320
did I say that out loud?
833
00:16:15.590 --> 00:16:15.669
Uh,
834
00:16:15.789 --> 00:16:16.190
since it was,
835
00:16:16.349 --> 00:16:17.609
since it was 5 weeks out,
836
00:16:17.750 --> 00:16:18.030
um,
837
00:16:18.109 --> 00:16:21.349
I chose to go ahead and put it out there hoping that it would get the reaction it did.
838
00:16:21.710 --> 00:16:21.820
Now,
839
00:16:21.830 --> 00:16:22.780
you mentioned the media.
840
00:16:22.979 --> 00:16:23.719
Every media out,
841
00:16:23.909 --> 00:16:24.059
I mean,
842
00:16:24.190 --> 00:16:26.599
almost every media outlet in America has called me.
843
00:16:27.130 --> 00:16:27.309
I mean,
844
00:16:27.349 --> 00:16:28.140
I got another note,
845
00:16:28.190 --> 00:16:29.599
I got another call from Der Spiegel,
846
00:16:29.619 --> 00:16:31.690
the 3rd time they've tried to reach me yesterday.
847
00:16:31.979 --> 00:16:33.669
Do you know how many of these I've responded to?
848
00:16:34.409 --> 00:16:35.090
0.
849
00:16:35.590 --> 00:16:35.989
Cause I didn't,
850
00:16:36.070 --> 00:16:36.989
I didn't put this out there.
851
00:16:37.070 --> 00:16:38.390
I'm not Erik Erickson trying to get a,
852
00:16:38.500 --> 00:16:38.630
you know,
853
00:16:38.669 --> 00:16:39.830
a thing on this week with the,
854
00:16:39.909 --> 00:16:40.030
you know,
855
00:16:40.390 --> 00:16:41.169
Sunday morning show
856
00:16:41.549 --> 00:16:44.700
to remind everybody how morally superior I supposedly am to everybody else.
857
00:16:44.750 --> 00:16:45.969
I did it because I want us to win.
858
00:16:46.609 --> 00:16:46.809
Right?
859
00:16:46.929 --> 00:16:49.150
And so I'm not gonna give aid and comfort to our enemies.
860
00:16:49.489 --> 00:16:49.650
Uh,
861
00:16:49.700 --> 00:16:51.890
I did it to wake our side up and that we
862
00:16:51.890 --> 00:16:54.669
frankly have to get a lot more aggressive and frankly negative
863
00:16:55.090 --> 00:16:55.830
with our messaging.
864
00:16:55.929 --> 00:16:59.780
And the messaging the president used in Nebraska at his rally on Tuesday
865
00:16:59.969 --> 00:17:02.650
is almost verbatim what I've been advocating on my show.
866
00:17:02.849 --> 00:17:03.080
So,
867
00:17:03.090 --> 00:17:04.750
I prefer that messaging to
868
00:17:04.930 --> 00:17:06.400
how many classes did you miss?
869
00:17:06.650 --> 00:17:06.848
Yeah,
870
00:17:07.010 --> 00:17:07.089
well,
871
00:17:07.130 --> 00:17:07.368
I mean,
872
00:17:07.489 --> 00:17:07.569
yeah,
873
00:17:07.810 --> 00:17:08.510
because it's just not.
874
00:17:08.598 --> 00:17:08.729
I mean,
875
00:17:08.810 --> 00:17:11.050
I don't know if maybe that was effective 20 or 30 years ago.
876
00:17:11.130 --> 00:17:11.209
I,
877
00:17:11.250 --> 00:17:11.329
I,
878
00:17:11.410 --> 00:17:12.969
I don't know even then if it was,
879
00:17:13.089 --> 00:17:13.368
but.
880
00:17:13.800 --> 00:17:14.160
I never,
881
00:17:14.239 --> 00:17:16.199
I'm never won over by that particular argument,
882
00:17:16.439 --> 00:17:16.800
um.
883
00:17:17.729 --> 00:17:18.939
You talk about this,
884
00:17:19.069 --> 00:17:19.300
uh,
885
00:17:19.420 --> 00:17:21.170
and just reading from your post,
886
00:17:21.380 --> 00:17:21.579
uh,
887
00:17:21.739 --> 00:17:22.140
you,
888
00:17:22.310 --> 00:17:22.858
you say that,
889
00:17:22.939 --> 00:17:23.130
uh,
890
00:17:23.219 --> 00:17:24.290
you talked to the pollsters,
891
00:17:24.550 --> 00:17:27.618
they said if you are in a +15 district,
892
00:17:28.719 --> 00:17:30.219
meaning Republicans favored by 15,
893
00:17:30.380 --> 00:17:31.969
Trump won by 15 in 2024,
894
00:17:32.300 --> 00:17:34.439
you are within the margin of error.
895
00:17:34.819 --> 00:17:36.540
And if you are in a 10 district,
896
00:17:36.619 --> 00:17:37.760
you're underwater.
897
00:17:38.339 --> 00:17:38.579
That,
898
00:17:38.699 --> 00:17:38.900
I mean,
899
00:17:39.020 --> 00:17:39.209
Steve,
900
00:17:39.439 --> 00:17:39.459
I mean,
901
00:17:39.540 --> 00:17:40.939
we've gone through the history many times on the show.
902
00:17:41.020 --> 00:17:41.859
I know you have too.
903
00:17:41.969 --> 00:17:42.089
That,
904
00:17:42.160 --> 00:17:42.339
that,
905
00:17:42.459 --> 00:17:42.699
those are,
906
00:17:42.780 --> 00:17:44.000
those are catastrophic levels.
907
00:17:44.780 --> 00:17:45.209
No doubt,
908
00:17:45.380 --> 00:17:48.859
which is again why I chose to speak out so that we can do something about it.
909
00:17:48.939 --> 00:17:49.400
I mean,
910
00:17:49.819 --> 00:17:49.939
uh,
911
00:17:49.979 --> 00:17:52.380
the situation we're seeing in the Midwest,
912
00:17:52.739 --> 00:17:52.939
uh,
913
00:17:53.060 --> 00:17:53.459
and your,
914
00:17:53.569 --> 00:17:53.660
you know,
915
00:17:53.699 --> 00:17:55.640
your home state of Texas is part of this,
916
00:17:56.140 --> 00:17:56.380
um,
917
00:17:56.530 --> 00:17:56.650
uh,
918
00:17:56.739 --> 00:17:58.020
but especially the,
919
00:17:58.089 --> 00:17:58.219
you know,
920
00:17:58.300 --> 00:17:59.859
why do we have to do events in Kansas,
921
00:17:59.959 --> 00:18:00.380
you know,
922
00:18:00.739 --> 00:18:01.750
why is Ohio,
923
00:18:01.819 --> 00:18:03.170
that's been a state that's,
924
00:18:03.219 --> 00:18:05.359
that's turned the most red in the Trump years.
925
00:18:05.780 --> 00:18:07.260
Why is it such a,
926
00:18:07.329 --> 00:18:08.699
A battle there right now.
927
00:18:08.849 --> 00:18:08.969
And,
928
00:18:09.020 --> 00:18:09.729
and granted,
929
00:18:10.040 --> 00:18:10.260
you know,
930
00:18:10.489 --> 00:18:12.010
Vivek Ramaswamy is not the,
931
00:18:12.119 --> 00:18:12.530
the most,
932
00:18:12.910 --> 00:18:13.810
the greatest on the stump,
933
00:18:13.849 --> 00:18:14.849
and whoever's telling him to,
934
00:18:14.959 --> 00:18:15.050
you know,
935
00:18:15.119 --> 00:18:17.650
swing baseball bats and try to pick up his kid live on stage,
936
00:18:17.810 --> 00:18:18.250
stop it.
937
00:18:18.560 --> 00:18:19.030
OK.
938
00:18:19.410 --> 00:18:19.949
What about tennis?
939
00:18:19.959 --> 00:18:21.170
Are you OK with Vivek tennis?
940
00:18:21.209 --> 00:18:21.689
Is that OK?
941
00:18:21.859 --> 00:18:22.150
Uh,
942
00:18:22.410 --> 00:18:22.800
maybe,
943
00:18:23.119 --> 00:18:24.469
although that's just kind of seems,
944
00:18:24.589 --> 00:18:25.030
uh,
945
00:18:25.410 --> 00:18:25.839
you know,
946
00:18:26.050 --> 00:18:28.010
maybe plays into a stereotype we don't want,
947
00:18:28.130 --> 00:18:28.910
but I'll move on.
948
00:18:29.449 --> 00:18:29.839
Uh,
949
00:18:30.050 --> 00:18:31.250
but the reason why in these,
950
00:18:31.369 --> 00:18:32.729
in these Corn Belt states,
951
00:18:32.930 --> 00:18:33.130
uh,
952
00:18:33.290 --> 00:18:33.410
like,
953
00:18:33.609 --> 00:18:35.810
like mine in Iowa where we are struggling.
954
00:18:36.250 --> 00:18:37.410
is because these guys,
955
00:18:37.569 --> 00:18:39.250
we used to call this when I was growing up in Michigan,
956
00:18:39.369 --> 00:18:40.089
Dutch door to action,
957
00:18:40.170 --> 00:18:42.189
screwed on the way in and then screwed again on the way out.
958
00:18:42.770 --> 00:18:42.849
So,
959
00:18:42.859 --> 00:18:43.569
on the way in,
960
00:18:43.729 --> 00:18:46.010
they knew what they were getting with Trump on the tariff stuff.
961
00:18:46.130 --> 00:18:46.400
And,
962
00:18:46.489 --> 00:18:46.869
and
963
00:18:47.089 --> 00:18:49.689
even though that was going to cause them an economic hit because
964
00:18:49.689 --> 00:18:52.270
their exports were going to get tariffed right back in retaliation.
965
00:18:52.890 --> 00:18:53.880
They love the president.
966
00:18:54.050 --> 00:18:56.130
They understand culturally what he's trying to do.
967
00:18:56.369 --> 00:18:57.369
He was upfront about it.
968
00:18:57.489 --> 00:18:58.319
They believe he wants to.
969
00:18:58.369 --> 00:18:58.849
He's trying to,
970
00:18:58.910 --> 00:18:59.209
you know,
971
00:18:59.319 --> 00:18:59.709
uh,
972
00:19:00.050 --> 00:19:01.670
essentially reset the great reset.
973
00:19:01.770 --> 00:19:02.390
And so,
974
00:19:02.729 --> 00:19:04.250
they were willing to put up with that.
975
00:19:04.530 --> 00:19:06.770
But another stupid war is exactly what they
976
00:19:06.770 --> 00:19:08.150
were promised they were never going to get.
977
00:19:08.290 --> 00:19:08.750
And
978
00:19:09.089 --> 00:19:09.250
this,
979
00:19:09.329 --> 00:19:12.369
this war in some places has become almost a read my lips,
980
00:19:12.449 --> 00:19:12.530
no,
981
00:19:12.729 --> 00:19:14.589
no new taxes level of disappointment.
982
00:19:15.369 --> 00:19:15.800
Um,
983
00:19:15.930 --> 00:19:17.030
and because here's the thing,
984
00:19:17.170 --> 00:19:19.130
in these Corn Belt states now on the front end.
985
00:19:19.560 --> 00:19:19.719
Your,
986
00:19:19.800 --> 00:19:19.900
your,
987
00:19:19.989 --> 00:19:23.079
your thank you for holding on during the tariffs and remaining loyal
988
00:19:23.270 --> 00:19:25.760
is you're gonna pay now $6 to $7 a gallon for,
989
00:19:25.829 --> 00:19:26.579
for your diesel fuel.
990
00:19:26.640 --> 00:19:27.500
That's your reward.
991
00:19:27.959 --> 00:19:28.150
And,
992
00:19:28.209 --> 00:19:29.790
and so when you have a state like Iowa,
993
00:19:29.989 --> 00:19:30.140
Stu,
994
00:19:30.229 --> 00:19:32.839
where we have 30 counties that voted for Obama twice and then
995
00:19:32.839 --> 00:19:35.040
turned right around and voted for Trump 3 times in a row.
996
00:19:35.569 --> 00:19:35.839
Right?
997
00:19:35.969 --> 00:19:39.709
You can have mass swings in some of these legislative districts like what I,
998
00:19:39.719 --> 00:19:39.770
I,
999
00:19:39.969 --> 00:19:40.170
what,
1000
00:19:40.250 --> 00:19:41.550
what I just articulated there
1001
00:19:41.969 --> 00:19:42.630
from our data.
1002
00:19:42.770 --> 00:19:43.130
And so,
1003
00:19:43.209 --> 00:19:44.000
what do we need?
1004
00:19:44.369 --> 00:19:44.439
Well,
1005
00:19:44.489 --> 00:19:45.890
we need the president out on the stump.
1006
00:19:46.079 --> 00:19:46.209
You know,
1007
00:19:46.250 --> 00:19:46.369
I,
1008
00:19:46.449 --> 00:19:46.520
I,
1009
00:19:46.609 --> 00:19:49.030
when I put this out there with my suggestions 3 weeks ago,
1010
00:19:49.410 --> 00:19:49.530
I mean,
1011
00:19:49.569 --> 00:19:49.739
I even,
1012
00:19:49.930 --> 00:19:52.410
I even had Obama speechwriters laughing at me.
1013
00:19:52.489 --> 00:19:52.770
You bet.
1014
00:19:52.880 --> 00:19:53.449
Put Trump out there.
1015
00:19:53.489 --> 00:19:53.770
I'm like,
1016
00:19:53.969 --> 00:19:55.089
you're damn right I want to put him out there.
1017
00:19:55.130 --> 00:19:56.680
He kicked you guys' ass last election.
1018
00:19:56.729 --> 00:19:58.069
He's the best campaigner we got.
1019
00:19:58.449 --> 00:19:58.719
Yeah,
1020
00:19:59.069 --> 00:19:59.079
I,
1021
00:19:59.290 --> 00:19:59.390
I,
1022
00:19:59.489 --> 00:19:59.540
you,
1023
00:19:59.750 --> 00:19:59.760
yeah,
1024
00:19:59.969 --> 00:20:00.290
absolutely,
1025
00:20:00.369 --> 00:20:01.050
I want him out there.
1026
00:20:01.145 --> 00:20:02.025
We need to get Trump out there.
1027
00:20:02.064 --> 00:20:02.905
He's getting out there,
1028
00:20:03.224 --> 00:20:06.824
and we need to get really aggressive and aggressively negative with our messaging.
1029
00:20:06.895 --> 00:20:07.375
We need to,
1030
00:20:07.625 --> 00:20:10.265
we need to recreate what Democrats did in 2022.
1031
00:20:10.545 --> 00:20:14.454
And remember when Biden did that triumph of the will slurring speech in front of the,
1032
00:20:14.505 --> 00:20:14.964
the,
1033
00:20:15.305 --> 00:20:15.814
the red,
1034
00:20:15.824 --> 00:20:15.834
uh,
1035
00:20:15.844 --> 00:20:16.185
drake.
1036
00:20:16.265 --> 00:20:16.655
Do you remember that?
1037
00:20:16.665 --> 00:20:17.584
We all laughed and said,
1038
00:20:17.685 --> 00:20:17.704
well,
1039
00:20:17.785 --> 00:20:18.545
now they're out of issues.
1040
00:20:18.584 --> 00:20:19.295
And we were right,
1041
00:20:19.584 --> 00:20:20.665
but they had one issue left,
1042
00:20:20.724 --> 00:20:22.255
which is our base is demoralized,
1043
00:20:22.265 --> 00:20:24.145
and they need to remember that Stu and Steve are Nazis.
1044
00:20:24.265 --> 00:20:25.375
I need to remind them of that,
1045
00:20:25.744 --> 00:20:25.905
right?
1046
00:20:26.025 --> 00:20:26.744
And that worked.
1047
00:20:27.130 --> 00:20:28.209
We got to election night,
1048
00:20:28.290 --> 00:20:28.489
right?
1049
00:20:28.609 --> 00:20:28.810
And,
1050
00:20:28.910 --> 00:20:30.709
and I thought Glenn was gonna fire me.
1051
00:20:31.050 --> 00:20:34.109
I thought Jason Whitlock and Michael Malice are gonna get in a fistfight.
1052
00:20:34.369 --> 00:20:34.790
All right.
1053
00:20:34.890 --> 00:20:35.089
I mean,
1054
00:20:35.170 --> 00:20:35.290
I,
1055
00:20:35.369 --> 00:20:37.229
I was about ready to just literally commit
1056
00:20:37.369 --> 00:20:39.589
the Joker eyeball trick on myself.
1057
00:20:39.920 --> 00:20:41.810
We were all convinced it was going to be a red wave,
1058
00:20:41.849 --> 00:20:43.819
and instead it was just kind of this ugly draw,
1059
00:20:43.930 --> 00:20:44.339
right?
1060
00:20:44.810 --> 00:20:47.050
Because Democrats made the environment negative enough.
1061
00:20:47.089 --> 00:20:48.530
They drove down Normie turnout,
1062
00:20:48.800 --> 00:20:49.209
and they made it.
1063
00:20:49.285 --> 00:20:51.885
Just a pure base on base election and they survived it.
1064
00:20:51.964 --> 00:20:53.045
That's what we need to do.
1065
00:20:53.805 --> 00:20:54.405
Um,
1066
00:20:54.964 --> 00:20:55.165
gosh,
1067
00:20:55.405 --> 00:20:55.844
and it's,
1068
00:20:55.925 --> 00:20:56.285
it's a,
1069
00:20:56.334 --> 00:20:57.885
it's a terrifying time to look at all this,
1070
00:20:57.974 --> 00:20:58.125
Steve.
1071
00:20:58.204 --> 00:20:58.285
I,
1072
00:20:58.324 --> 00:20:58.435
I,
1073
00:20:58.564 --> 00:20:58.954
I wanna,
1074
00:20:59.045 --> 00:21:00.704
can we start a little bit going into
1075
00:21:01.204 --> 00:21:02.055
Iowa itself?
1076
00:21:02.685 --> 00:21:03.035
You're there.
1077
00:21:03.084 --> 00:21:03.724
I know you were,
1078
00:21:03.805 --> 00:21:04.015
uh,
1079
00:21:04.165 --> 00:21:04.285
you know,
1080
00:21:04.405 --> 00:21:05.905
very involved in everything
1081
00:21:06.084 --> 00:21:06.834
that goes on in Iowa,
1082
00:21:06.954 --> 00:21:08.525
including the primary process all the way through.
1083
00:21:08.604 --> 00:21:08.805
You know,
1084
00:21:08.875 --> 00:21:09.125
every,
1085
00:21:09.285 --> 00:21:10.244
literally everybody in the state,
1086
00:21:10.324 --> 00:21:11.584
you know everything about the state,
1087
00:21:11.885 --> 00:21:12.244
um.
1088
00:21:14.089 --> 00:21:14.530
Looking at this,
1089
00:21:14.569 --> 00:21:14.760
and I,
1090
00:21:14.810 --> 00:21:16.729
I looked at this months and months ago and thought,
1091
00:21:16.849 --> 00:21:16.969
you know,
1092
00:21:17.199 --> 00:21:17.369
it just,
1093
00:21:17.449 --> 00:21:18.449
it just doesn't feel,
1094
00:21:18.530 --> 00:21:18.959
it felt,
1095
00:21:19.089 --> 00:21:22.849
felt like Iowa had turned the corner from what we saw in 2008,
1096
00:21:22.969 --> 00:21:23.050
right?
1097
00:21:23.089 --> 00:21:23.250
I mean,
1098
00:21:23.329 --> 00:21:25.880
Barack Obama won the state in 2008,
1099
00:21:25.930 --> 00:21:26.209
which was,
1100
00:21:26.280 --> 00:21:26.369
uh,
1101
00:21:26.479 --> 00:21:26.910
you know,
1102
00:21:27.250 --> 00:21:27.890
a big thing.
1103
00:21:28.130 --> 00:21:29.890
We saw back in 2024.
1104
00:21:30.319 --> 00:21:30.520
You know,
1105
00:21:30.660 --> 00:21:30.670
that,
1106
00:21:30.760 --> 00:21:30.880
you know,
1107
00:21:31.000 --> 00:21:31.270
I,
1108
00:21:31.719 --> 00:21:32.270
speaking of prediction,
1109
00:21:32.280 --> 00:21:35.109
markets did very well after that one poll that came out,
1110
00:21:35.319 --> 00:21:36.270
the Seltzer poll in,
1111
00:21:36.329 --> 00:21:38.150
in Iowa showed Kamala Harris up,
1112
00:21:38.160 --> 00:21:38.510
and I was like,
1113
00:21:38.599 --> 00:21:39.020
there's the,
1114
00:21:39.260 --> 00:21:40.280
this is not true.
1115
00:21:40.359 --> 00:21:41.469
It's not happening.
1116
00:21:42.069 --> 00:21:45.339
That the markets dropped into the 70s inexplicably after that poll.
1117
00:21:45.520 --> 00:21:45.689
And,
1118
00:21:45.760 --> 00:21:45.920
you know,
1119
00:21:45.979 --> 00:21:47.540
a lot of people were able to clean up on that.
1120
00:21:47.839 --> 00:21:48.380
And I,
1121
00:21:48.520 --> 00:21:49.989
I have to admit going into this,
1122
00:21:50.160 --> 00:21:52.979
I couldn't really come up with a series of events that I thought
1123
00:21:53.239 --> 00:21:55.500
you'd look at these types of races
1124
00:21:55.640 --> 00:21:57.349
that are not only competitive,
1125
00:21:57.520 --> 00:21:58.839
very competitive in the Senate.
1126
00:21:59.219 --> 00:21:59.969
But I mean,
1127
00:22:00.410 --> 00:22:01.709
it's according to some polling,
1128
00:22:01.829 --> 00:22:05.260
not even that competitive when it comes to the gubernatorial race.
1129
00:22:05.630 --> 00:22:07.630
Can you kind of give us a picture of what it looks like in Iowa?
1130
00:22:08.650 --> 00:22:08.969
So,
1131
00:22:09.130 --> 00:22:09.599
one,
1132
00:22:09.930 --> 00:22:10.209
I mean,
1133
00:22:10.329 --> 00:22:11.130
and you're a sports guy,
1134
00:22:11.239 --> 00:22:12.390
so you'll get my analogy here.
1135
00:22:12.650 --> 00:22:13.369
The hardest thing,
1136
00:22:13.489 --> 00:22:13.750
the,
1137
00:22:13.760 --> 00:22:15.829
the harder than winning a championship
1138
00:22:16.209 --> 00:22:17.060
is doing it again.
1139
00:22:17.410 --> 00:22:17.609
All right?
1140
00:22:17.729 --> 00:22:18.319
And so,
1141
00:22:18.689 --> 00:22:19.040
you know,
1142
00:22:19.369 --> 00:22:22.969
some of us worked for 10 years to turn Iowa as red as it currently is.
1143
00:22:23.130 --> 00:22:23.599
And,
1144
00:22:23.920 --> 00:22:24.609
and right now,
1145
00:22:24.670 --> 00:22:27.930
we have the most amount of registered Republicans in the state of all time,
1146
00:22:28.010 --> 00:22:29.290
over 700,000.
1147
00:22:29.609 --> 00:22:32.569
We have a quarter of a million voter registration advantage.
1148
00:22:33.160 --> 00:22:33.359
Uh,
1149
00:22:33.469 --> 00:22:35.010
and so what ends up happening though,
1150
00:22:35.109 --> 00:22:35.489
when you have,
1151
00:22:35.560 --> 00:22:35.719
and,
1152
00:22:35.800 --> 00:22:35.959
and,
1153
00:22:36.079 --> 00:22:36.520
and the,
1154
00:22:36.640 --> 00:22:37.949
the governor we have that's retiring,
1155
00:22:38.040 --> 00:22:38.469
Kim Reynolds,
1156
00:22:38.479 --> 00:22:40.339
has been the best governor maybe the state's ever had.
1157
00:22:40.880 --> 00:22:42.109
And so when you have all of that,
1158
00:22:42.199 --> 00:22:43.920
there's a lot of our boxes we've checked that.
1159
00:22:44.079 --> 00:22:46.739
A lot of the kind of stuff that a lot of our people nationally
1160
00:22:47.270 --> 00:22:49.229
that love that Trump has put in executive orders,
1161
00:22:49.280 --> 00:22:50.020
but they're ticked,
1162
00:22:50.239 --> 00:22:52.439
that the GOP Congress hasn't codified into law.
1163
00:22:52.520 --> 00:22:53.959
We codified it like all into law.
1164
00:22:54.020 --> 00:22:55.060
Like it's all law here,
1165
00:22:55.189 --> 00:22:55.319
you know,
1166
00:22:55.400 --> 00:22:55.760
it's like.
1167
00:22:56.140 --> 00:22:56.300
I mean,
1168
00:22:56.420 --> 00:22:57.660
Kim is kind of DeSantis,
1169
00:22:57.739 --> 00:22:57.979
you know,
1170
00:22:58.060 --> 00:22:58.689
and with the,
1171
00:22:58.739 --> 00:22:58.900
you know,
1172
00:22:59.180 --> 00:23:00.920
the cheerleader version of Ron DeSantis,
1173
00:23:00.949 --> 00:23:01.599
basically.
1174
00:23:02.219 --> 00:23:03.380
So what that happens when,
1175
00:23:03.459 --> 00:23:04.459
when that happens though,
1176
00:23:04.579 --> 00:23:07.500
when a lot of the cultural stuff that needs to get done gets done,
1177
00:23:07.979 --> 00:23:10.699
then some of the economic things come in where you're not as unified,
1178
00:23:10.780 --> 00:23:10.910
right?
1179
00:23:10.979 --> 00:23:12.260
And you run into situations like,
1180
00:23:12.300 --> 00:23:15.099
do we need a carbon capture pipeline or do we need your family farm,
1181
00:23:15.500 --> 00:23:15.689
right?
1182
00:23:15.849 --> 00:23:17.500
That's a very divisive issue in Iowa.
1183
00:23:17.689 --> 00:23:19.550
Do we need more data centers or do we need,
1184
00:23:19.660 --> 00:23:20.199
you know,
1185
00:23:20.430 --> 00:23:20.689
uh,
1186
00:23:20.859 --> 00:23:21.699
do we need your farm?
1187
00:23:21.939 --> 00:23:24.319
That's very divisive in these rural areas as well.
1188
00:23:24.790 --> 00:23:25.530
And so,
1189
00:23:25.849 --> 00:23:26.270
now we're,
1190
00:23:26.349 --> 00:23:28.949
we're into some of these more parochial issues like our governor's race,
1191
00:23:28.989 --> 00:23:29.459
for example.
1192
00:23:29.589 --> 00:23:29.709
Now,
1193
00:23:29.750 --> 00:23:29.989
I,
1194
00:23:30.270 --> 00:23:31.270
I would caution people,
1195
00:23:31.349 --> 00:23:31.579
I,
1196
00:23:32.030 --> 00:23:33.890
I can't bet political markets in Iowa.
1197
00:23:34.069 --> 00:23:35.770
I'd be hammering Zach Lane if I could.
1198
00:23:35.969 --> 00:23:36.270
All right?
1199
00:23:36.510 --> 00:23:37.630
The day before the primary,
1200
00:23:37.729 --> 00:23:39.229
Zach Lane was at 18% on,
1201
00:23:39.310 --> 00:23:39.869
on Calhi,
1202
00:23:39.949 --> 00:23:40.849
and then he turned around
1203
00:23:41.030 --> 00:23:41.790
and won the race,
1204
00:23:41.859 --> 00:23:42.229
OK?
1205
00:23:42.569 --> 00:23:44.979
So would I predict Zach to win if the race were today?
1206
00:23:45.109 --> 00:23:45.260
No,
1207
00:23:45.339 --> 00:23:46.260
but the race isn't today.
1208
00:23:46.390 --> 00:23:46.800
So,
1209
00:23:47.020 --> 00:23:47.219
you know,
1210
00:23:47.369 --> 00:23:47.619
is he,
1211
00:23:47.699 --> 00:23:47.939
do I,
1212
00:23:48.020 --> 00:23:49.020
do I think there's more than,
1213
00:23:49.079 --> 00:23:49.699
I think it today,
1214
00:23:49.739 --> 00:23:49.979
it's,
1215
00:23:50.030 --> 00:23:50.180
uh,
1216
00:23:50.300 --> 00:23:51.800
it was before the debate last night.
1217
00:23:52.020 --> 00:23:54.219
I think it was 17% or something was the number.
1218
00:23:54.339 --> 00:23:54.420
Yeah,
1219
00:23:54.459 --> 00:23:55.739
I think it's way higher than that,
1220
00:23:55.859 --> 00:23:56.489
that he's gonna win.
1221
00:23:56.619 --> 00:23:56.859
That's,
1222
00:23:57.010 --> 00:23:57.780
that's shockingly low.
1223
00:23:57.829 --> 00:23:57.989
I mean,
1224
00:23:58.060 --> 00:23:59.430
the polls do have him behind,
1225
00:23:59.540 --> 00:23:59.719
again,
1226
00:23:59.780 --> 00:24:01.130
for whatever you take from that.
1227
00:24:01.380 --> 00:24:03.540
We all know private polling sometimes tells different stories,
1228
00:24:03.609 --> 00:24:04.300
but like a 17,
1229
00:24:04.380 --> 00:24:05.130
18% is,
1230
00:24:05.180 --> 00:24:05.369
is,
1231
00:24:05.489 --> 00:24:06.140
is shocking in,
1232
00:24:06.180 --> 00:24:06.329
in,
1233
00:24:06.380 --> 00:24:08.800
in Iowa where we've seen these surprises before.
1234
00:24:09.369 --> 00:24:09.719
Right.
1235
00:24:10.010 --> 00:24:10.609
And so like,
1236
00:24:10.849 --> 00:24:14.670
so we have a parochial issue here where we have a real maha gubernatorial candidate.
1237
00:24:14.729 --> 00:24:15.810
I was at a private event.
1238
00:24:16.050 --> 00:24:18.290
RFK Junior came to our state for an invite-only
1239
00:24:18.290 --> 00:24:20.150
private event about a month ago for Zach.
1240
00:24:20.410 --> 00:24:24.069
But I think it's the only campaign that he's doing this for in this entire cycle.
1241
00:24:24.420 --> 00:24:24.609
All right?
1242
00:24:24.689 --> 00:24:25.290
And so we have a,
1243
00:24:25.329 --> 00:24:27.369
a real true maha guy,
1244
00:24:27.489 --> 00:24:27.810
uh,
1245
00:24:27.930 --> 00:24:28.079
in,
1246
00:24:28.170 --> 00:24:28.930
in Zach.
1247
00:24:29.209 --> 00:24:29.449
Well,
1248
00:24:29.569 --> 00:24:29.939
you know,
1249
00:24:30.089 --> 00:24:30.250
uh,
1250
00:24:30.369 --> 00:24:31.719
he also is going to be,
1251
00:24:31.729 --> 00:24:34.010
might be the first Republican governor candidate in recent
1252
00:24:34.010 --> 00:24:35.689
memory not to get a Farm Bureau endorsement.
1253
00:24:36.130 --> 00:24:39.719
Because one of the things he's pointing out is that the water quality in Iowa sucks.
1254
00:24:39.969 --> 00:24:41.760
We have one of the highest cancer rates in the country,
1255
00:24:41.810 --> 00:24:44.930
and I think we need to look at maybe if some of our farming practices are causing this,
1256
00:24:45.010 --> 00:24:45.390
right?
1257
00:24:45.930 --> 00:24:46.310
So,
1258
00:24:46.449 --> 00:24:46.650
if,
1259
00:24:46.729 --> 00:24:51.550
if we were desperate to win and sick of Democrats kicking us in the shins,
1260
00:24:52.000 --> 00:24:54.449
that might be a thing where we all kind of come together and say,
1261
00:24:54.650 --> 00:24:54.800
brother,
1262
00:24:54.880 --> 00:24:56.280
we're gonna settle this when this is over,
1263
00:24:56.290 --> 00:24:56.589
because we're not,
1264
00:24:56.689 --> 00:24:58.010
we're not gonna let you screw us like that.
1265
00:24:58.130 --> 00:24:58.430
But,
1266
00:24:58.880 --> 00:25:00.160
Since we checked all those boxes,
1267
00:25:00.280 --> 00:25:00.439
Stu,
1268
00:25:00.520 --> 00:25:02.109
and everybody's got a Super Bowl ring now,
1269
00:25:02.239 --> 00:25:02.760
you know,
1270
00:25:03.119 --> 00:25:03.910
now everybody's kind of like,
1271
00:25:03.959 --> 00:25:04.119
you know,
1272
00:25:04.239 --> 00:25:04.469
I've got,
1273
00:25:04.560 --> 00:25:05.630
I get a podcast too.
1274
00:25:05.680 --> 00:25:05.800
You know,
1275
00:25:05.880 --> 00:25:07.270
I get to be a free agent too,
1276
00:25:07.400 --> 00:25:07.579
you know,
1277
00:25:07.640 --> 00:25:07.949
I mean,
1278
00:25:08.160 --> 00:25:09.569
it's that kind of thing right now.
1279
00:25:09.670 --> 00:25:10.239
And so,
1280
00:25:10.479 --> 00:25:12.859
that's why his debate performance was so key
1281
00:25:13.280 --> 00:25:14.839
because it was such a domination of,
1282
00:25:15.150 --> 00:25:16.599
of his Democratic opponent,
1283
00:25:16.699 --> 00:25:16.790
uh,
1284
00:25:16.880 --> 00:25:17.599
Rob Sand,
1285
00:25:17.839 --> 00:25:19.280
that that's the kind of thing that.
1286
00:25:19.375 --> 00:25:20.814
And he did a great job of pointing out how out
1287
00:25:20.814 --> 00:25:23.594
of the mainstream Rob is on virtually every issue in Iowa.
1288
00:25:23.814 --> 00:25:26.055
That's the kind of thing that helps the rest of us to say,
1289
00:25:26.135 --> 00:25:26.375
OK,
1290
00:25:26.494 --> 00:25:28.214
we've got some family business to settle here,
1291
00:25:28.305 --> 00:25:28.594
but
1292
00:25:28.814 --> 00:25:30.314
we can't let that bleeping guy win.
1293
00:25:30.375 --> 00:25:30.814
Right now,
1294
00:25:30.885 --> 00:25:31.375
he's got to still,
1295
00:25:31.454 --> 00:25:33.155
you got to do this for another 3 weeks,
1296
00:25:33.415 --> 00:25:34.844
but that was a good start last night.
1297
00:25:34.974 --> 00:25:35.084
Yeah,
1298
00:25:35.135 --> 00:25:35.864
I saw some of the clips.
1299
00:25:35.944 --> 00:25:36.974
I did not watch the entire thing,
1300
00:25:37.055 --> 00:25:38.015
but I saw some of the clips from it.
1301
00:25:38.094 --> 00:25:39.875
It looked like he performed really well.
1302
00:25:40.189 --> 00:25:40.579
Um,
1303
00:25:40.670 --> 00:25:40.979
and we,
1304
00:25:41.030 --> 00:25:41.510
as we know,
1305
00:25:41.709 --> 00:25:41.859
look,
1306
00:25:42.069 --> 00:25:43.780
sometimes there's debates that really turn the tide.
1307
00:25:43.829 --> 00:25:44.189
I give you,
1308
00:25:44.270 --> 00:25:44.510
of course,
1309
00:25:44.670 --> 00:25:45.150
Biden,
1310
00:25:45.329 --> 00:25:45.459
uh,
1311
00:25:45.510 --> 00:25:46.520
in 2024.
1312
00:25:46.739 --> 00:25:46.930
Um,
1313
00:25:47.069 --> 00:25:47.209
but,
1314
00:25:47.280 --> 00:25:47.589
uh,
1315
00:25:47.709 --> 00:25:47.869
you know,
1316
00:25:48.150 --> 00:25:49.729
sometimes those things don't connect with people.
1317
00:25:49.829 --> 00:25:49.939
Do,
1318
00:25:50.050 --> 00:25:50.420
do people,
1319
00:25:50.550 --> 00:25:50.670
are,
1320
00:25:50.729 --> 00:25:51.729
are people into this race?
1321
00:25:51.790 --> 00:25:52.510
Are they watching it?
1322
00:25:52.589 --> 00:25:54.010
Are they obsessed with this race,
1323
00:25:54.030 --> 00:25:56.969
or is it one of those things that's kind of just existing in the background?
1324
00:25:57.469 --> 00:26:01.589
The first thing that Zach needed to do was to make sure everybody stays on board.
1325
00:26:02.260 --> 00:26:02.420
All right.
1326
00:26:02.459 --> 00:26:04.420
You don't want to be in a situation in the last couple of
1327
00:26:04.420 --> 00:26:06.180
weeks where your Senate candidate's leaking
1328
00:26:06.180 --> 00:26:08.359
stuff to Politico with her consultants and
1329
00:26:08.579 --> 00:26:09.430
we're going our own way,
1330
00:26:09.540 --> 00:26:10.170
Fleetwood Mac.
1331
00:26:10.250 --> 00:26:10.979
You don't want any of that.
1332
00:26:11.099 --> 00:26:11.180
That,
1333
00:26:11.260 --> 00:26:11.500
that,
1334
00:26:11.739 --> 00:26:12.540
whenever that starts,
1335
00:26:12.900 --> 00:26:13.689
everybody's gonna lose,
1336
00:26:13.819 --> 00:26:14.089
right?
1337
00:26:14.180 --> 00:26:14.339
I mean,
1338
00:26:14.459 --> 00:26:15.020
Ben Franklin's,
1339
00:26:15.109 --> 00:26:17.420
we either hang together or hang separately is always true.
1340
00:26:17.489 --> 00:26:18.380
That's always true.
1341
00:26:18.660 --> 00:26:19.699
It wasn't just true at that moment,
1342
00:26:19.739 --> 00:26:20.579
it's forever true,
1343
00:26:20.699 --> 00:26:20.869
right?
1344
00:26:20.939 --> 00:26:21.400
And so,
1345
00:26:21.579 --> 00:26:23.000
what Zach did last night.
1346
00:26:23.390 --> 00:26:23.780
Uh,
1347
00:26:23.869 --> 00:26:26.260
even if only the people that watched were the political class,
1348
00:26:26.349 --> 00:26:27.099
because I can tell you,
1349
00:26:27.270 --> 00:26:27.670
they're all,
1350
00:26:27.790 --> 00:26:30.209
they've all been emailing and texting me in the last 12 hours.
1351
00:26:30.510 --> 00:26:32.140
If that's all that we got out of this,
1352
00:26:32.180 --> 00:26:32.310
and,
1353
00:26:32.349 --> 00:26:33.510
and nothing went viral,
1354
00:26:33.589 --> 00:26:33.829
of course,
1355
00:26:33.989 --> 00:26:34.949
stuff is already going viral.
1356
00:26:34.989 --> 00:26:36.170
You mentioned you've seen the clips,
1357
00:26:36.459 --> 00:26:40.369
but if nothing went viral for normie Republicans or normie voters to see,
1358
00:26:40.780 --> 00:26:42.540
all we needed to do was remind everybody,
1359
00:26:42.550 --> 00:26:43.630
we're all on the same team here,
1360
00:26:43.739 --> 00:26:44.589
so quit your bitching,
1361
00:26:44.630 --> 00:26:44.969
basically,
1362
00:26:45.270 --> 00:26:45.670
OK?
1363
00:26:45.989 --> 00:26:46.349
So that's,
1364
00:26:46.390 --> 00:26:47.780
that's kind of the first step here.
1365
00:26:47.910 --> 00:26:48.140
Now,
1366
00:26:48.329 --> 00:26:48.430
again,
1367
00:26:48.510 --> 00:26:49.630
that's why this has got to be,
1368
00:26:49.790 --> 00:26:51.339
got to be done for another few weeks.
1369
00:26:51.589 --> 00:26:52.150
The president,
1370
00:26:52.229 --> 00:26:52.790
I'm told,
1371
00:26:52.910 --> 00:26:53.069
has,
1372
00:26:53.150 --> 00:26:54.829
has promised to come here at least once.
1373
00:26:55.109 --> 00:26:56.829
We're trying to get him here to come here twice,
1374
00:26:57.109 --> 00:26:57.349
uh,
1375
00:26:57.630 --> 00:26:58.420
because he is,
1376
00:26:58.479 --> 00:26:58.500
uh,
1377
00:26:58.709 --> 00:27:01.209
no one turns out that rural base and reminds them
1378
00:27:01.670 --> 00:27:02.670
of what's at stake,
1379
00:27:02.869 --> 00:27:03.229
uh,
1380
00:27:03.349 --> 00:27:03.469
you know,
1381
00:27:03.550 --> 00:27:05.589
when Democrats win better than the president does.
1382
00:27:05.660 --> 00:27:06.109
And so,
1383
00:27:06.430 --> 00:27:07.709
that would be a big boost as well.
1384
00:27:07.790 --> 00:27:10.550
And the vice president might even be more popular here in Iowa
1385
00:27:10.790 --> 00:27:11.420
than the president.
1386
00:27:11.469 --> 00:27:12.770
You have the same political team
1387
00:27:13.109 --> 00:27:15.790
that oversees the vice president is running Zach's campaign.
1388
00:27:16.189 --> 00:27:16.469
So,
1389
00:27:16.589 --> 00:27:16.670
you know,
1390
00:27:16.750 --> 00:27:18.869
the vice president's already been here once recently.
1391
00:27:18.989 --> 00:27:20.780
Maybe get him back a couple more times too.
1392
00:27:21.349 --> 00:27:21.550
OK,
1393
00:27:21.630 --> 00:27:21.790
um,
1394
00:27:21.829 --> 00:27:23.310
I want to talk to you about the Senate race as well.
1395
00:27:23.430 --> 00:27:23.589
Could you,
1396
00:27:23.630 --> 00:27:23.699
uh,
1397
00:27:23.750 --> 00:27:24.979
can you hang out for a quick break?
1398
00:27:25.550 --> 00:27:25.790
OK,
1399
00:27:25.869 --> 00:27:25.989
um,
1400
00:27:26.069 --> 00:27:26.510
we're gonna come back,
1401
00:27:26.619 --> 00:27:27.069
talk about the,
1402
00:27:27.150 --> 00:27:27.300
uh,
1403
00:27:27.380 --> 00:27:31.150
the Senate race in Iowa and maybe a few other races around the country with Steve Day.
1404
00:27:31.630 --> 00:27:31.680
Uh,
1405
00:27:31.750 --> 00:27:32.630
we're back in a second.
1406
00:27:44.859 --> 00:27:45.709
We're back with Steve Day,
1407
00:27:45.829 --> 00:27:46.469
Steve Day show,
1408
00:27:46.689 --> 00:27:47.280
Blaze TV.
1409
00:27:47.949 --> 00:27:48.150
Uh,
1410
00:27:48.310 --> 00:27:48.670
Steve,
1411
00:27:48.949 --> 00:27:49.150
the,
1412
00:27:49.219 --> 00:27:52.469
the Senate race is very competitive in Iowa as well,
1413
00:27:52.550 --> 00:27:53.209
which is again,
1414
00:27:53.349 --> 00:27:54.209
kind of a shock.
1415
00:27:54.469 --> 00:27:54.619
Uh,
1416
00:27:54.670 --> 00:27:55.349
Ashley Hinson,
1417
00:27:55.430 --> 00:27:56.689
Josh Turrick going at it,
1418
00:27:56.989 --> 00:27:57.329
um.
1419
00:27:58.079 --> 00:27:58.349
There's,
1420
00:27:58.359 --> 00:27:58.550
I think,
1421
00:27:58.560 --> 00:27:59.079
a debate tonight,
1422
00:27:59.199 --> 00:27:59.270
right,
1423
00:27:59.280 --> 00:27:59.589
on that one.
1424
00:27:59.599 --> 00:27:59.760
Is,
1425
00:27:59.800 --> 00:28:00.030
is that,
1426
00:28:00.079 --> 00:28:00.599
is that tonight?
1427
00:28:00.800 --> 00:28:00.880
Yeah,
1428
00:28:00.959 --> 00:28:01.459
OK,
1429
00:28:01.719 --> 00:28:02.030
um,
1430
00:28:02.199 --> 00:28:06.250
that's a really key one for people to watch if they care about control of the Senate.
1431
00:28:06.560 --> 00:28:06.939
Uh,
1432
00:28:07.239 --> 00:28:09.119
can you give me a picture of what this race is like?
1433
00:28:09.199 --> 00:28:10.439
What we see in prediction markets,
1434
00:28:10.489 --> 00:28:11.800
what we see in some of the polling
1435
00:28:12.160 --> 00:28:14.520
is that this race is maybe,
1436
00:28:14.599 --> 00:28:15.650
is just razor thin,
1437
00:28:15.719 --> 00:28:16.180
like really,
1438
00:28:16.280 --> 00:28:17.150
really close.
1439
00:28:17.479 --> 00:28:19.599
Maybe she's a little bit ahead of the position,
1440
00:28:19.880 --> 00:28:19.959
uh,
1441
00:28:20.030 --> 00:28:20.640
of Zach Lane.
1442
00:28:21.119 --> 00:28:21.199
What,
1443
00:28:21.310 --> 00:28:22.060
what's your view on the ground?
1444
00:28:23.000 --> 00:28:27.920
So I think Ashley's candidate profile ideologically is very similar to Joni Ernst,
1445
00:28:28.000 --> 00:28:29.300
which means she would be more,
1446
00:28:29.719 --> 00:28:29.880
uh,
1447
00:28:29.959 --> 00:28:32.479
to the middle of where the Republican base in Iowa is,
1448
00:28:32.760 --> 00:28:34.839
but she's a way better candidate than Joni Ernst.
1449
00:28:34.949 --> 00:28:35.079
Uh,
1450
00:28:35.280 --> 00:28:36.989
she's way more engaged with her base.
1451
00:28:37.359 --> 00:28:37.479
You know,
1452
00:28:37.530 --> 00:28:38.790
the last few years with Joni Ernst,
1453
00:28:38.839 --> 00:28:40.660
she had a motorcycle ride in a mailbox,
1454
00:28:40.760 --> 00:28:41.040
you know,
1455
00:28:41.160 --> 00:28:43.310
and that was the joke we had with Tom Harkin for many years.
1456
00:28:43.680 --> 00:28:46.829
Is he representing Iowa or is his mailbox in Indianola representing Iowa,
1457
00:28:46.920 --> 00:28:47.040
right?
1458
00:28:47.079 --> 00:28:47.900
You just never saw him.
1459
00:28:48.280 --> 00:28:49.709
So Joni's here once a year for,
1460
00:28:49.800 --> 00:28:49.880
uh,
1461
00:28:49.959 --> 00:28:50.079
you know,
1462
00:28:50.119 --> 00:28:50.469
like a,
1463
00:28:50.560 --> 00:28:51.469
a motorcycle ride,
1464
00:28:51.479 --> 00:28:52.380
and that's about it.
1465
00:28:52.800 --> 00:28:52.959
I mean,
1466
00:28:53.199 --> 00:28:55.160
Ashley is very engaged with her base.
1467
00:28:55.239 --> 00:28:56.420
She's all over the state.
1468
00:28:56.800 --> 00:28:57.140
Uh,
1469
00:28:57.280 --> 00:29:00.310
she makes herself way more accessible accessible and personable.
1470
00:29:00.640 --> 00:29:00.979
So,
1471
00:29:01.319 --> 00:29:02.839
that's why I think our base is,
1472
00:29:02.880 --> 00:29:04.479
is more excited about her,
1473
00:29:04.839 --> 00:29:04.979
uh,
1474
00:29:05.079 --> 00:29:05.910
despite her not
1475
00:29:06.239 --> 00:29:07.229
she's not necessarily the most,
1476
00:29:07.270 --> 00:29:07.380
uh,
1477
00:29:07.439 --> 00:29:08.699
the best candidate we have,
1478
00:29:08.959 --> 00:29:09.599
but I think they're more,
1479
00:29:09.680 --> 00:29:11.640
they're more willing and and enthused for her than
1480
00:29:11.640 --> 00:29:13.140
they would have been if Joanie were running again.
1481
00:29:13.790 --> 00:29:14.430
Because she is,
1482
00:29:14.510 --> 00:29:14.630
uh,
1483
00:29:14.819 --> 00:29:15.260
she's frankly,
1484
00:29:15.270 --> 00:29:17.550
a better public servant at this stage of her career.
1485
00:29:17.829 --> 00:29:17.939
Now,
1486
00:29:17.949 --> 00:29:19.589
the Democrat she's running against in,
1487
00:29:19.699 --> 00:29:19.829
in,
1488
00:29:19.910 --> 00:29:20.589
in Josh Turk,
1489
00:29:20.670 --> 00:29:20.750
I,
1490
00:29:20.829 --> 00:29:22.630
I thought Josh Turk was running the best ads by
1491
00:29:22.630 --> 00:29:24.780
a Democrat I've seen in our state statewide in the,
1492
00:29:25.069 --> 00:29:25.869
in the 20 years,
1493
00:29:25.989 --> 00:29:26.109
uh,
1494
00:29:26.180 --> 00:29:29.290
that I've been involved in politics here in Iowa nationally.
1495
00:29:29.630 --> 00:29:29.750
Uh,
1496
00:29:29.790 --> 00:29:31.060
he really did a great job,
1497
00:29:31.119 --> 00:29:31.219
uh,
1498
00:29:31.229 --> 00:29:33.040
without coming across as cringy,
1499
00:29:33.359 --> 00:29:33.709
um,
1500
00:29:33.829 --> 00:29:35.619
a bit of playing off of his disability,
1501
00:29:35.869 --> 00:29:36.030
uh,
1502
00:29:36.140 --> 00:29:36.869
and how he's,
1503
00:29:36.910 --> 00:29:36.920
uh,
1504
00:29:36.930 --> 00:29:37.660
overcome it
1505
00:29:37.949 --> 00:29:38.969
and the origin of it.
1506
00:29:39.069 --> 00:29:39.369
And,
1507
00:29:39.380 --> 00:29:39.430
and,
1508
00:29:39.709 --> 00:29:39.979
and,
1509
00:29:40.050 --> 00:29:40.189
you know,
1510
00:29:40.310 --> 00:29:42.010
that's how he was able to beat in the primary.
1511
00:29:42.560 --> 00:29:42.949
Uh,
1512
00:29:43.040 --> 00:29:44.800
a way more of what,
1513
00:29:44.880 --> 00:29:45.119
uh,
1514
00:29:45.199 --> 00:29:46.680
a lot of audience might call Liptard,
1515
00:29:46.880 --> 00:29:47.000
uh,
1516
00:29:47.119 --> 00:29:48.640
was the kind of candidate that he was running against.
1517
00:29:48.719 --> 00:29:48.839
I mean,
1518
00:29:48.880 --> 00:29:49.280
this,
1519
00:29:49.560 --> 00:29:53.000
this is a guy who's making sacrifices to Joe B and is willing
1520
00:29:53.000 --> 00:29:55.479
to trans his kids live on television if that's what it takes,
1521
00:29:55.550 --> 00:29:55.979
right?
1522
00:29:56.239 --> 00:29:58.819
And so it was kind of surprising that Josh beat him
1523
00:29:59.520 --> 00:30:00.030
because you,
1524
00:30:00.099 --> 00:30:00.170
you,
1525
00:30:00.250 --> 00:30:01.920
you saw Democrats do something they aren't,
1526
00:30:01.979 --> 00:30:02.079
they,
1527
00:30:02.189 --> 00:30:02.949
they don't typically do.
1528
00:30:03.000 --> 00:30:04.089
Like they didn't do this in Michigan.
1529
00:30:04.160 --> 00:30:04.439
Like the,
1530
00:30:04.640 --> 00:30:04.880
the,
1531
00:30:05.000 --> 00:30:05.199
the,
1532
00:30:05.280 --> 00:30:06.079
the reason we can,
1533
00:30:06.160 --> 00:30:07.479
we have a shot to survive this,
1534
00:30:07.640 --> 00:30:07.880
Stu,
1535
00:30:08.160 --> 00:30:11.030
is because of who the candidates are that Democrats have mostly nominated,
1536
00:30:11.160 --> 00:30:11.380
right?
1537
00:30:11.819 --> 00:30:12.150
Um,
1538
00:30:12.270 --> 00:30:12.430
they've,
1539
00:30:12.510 --> 00:30:15.630
they've bypassed more of their normal people to nominate a bunch of crazies.
1540
00:30:15.709 --> 00:30:15.790
Well,
1541
00:30:15.829 --> 00:30:16.390
in our state,
1542
00:30:16.449 --> 00:30:17.430
they did the opposite,
1543
00:30:17.750 --> 00:30:17.869
right?
1544
00:30:17.949 --> 00:30:20.329
So Josh ran very enthusiastic ads.
1545
00:30:20.589 --> 00:30:20.670
But,
1546
00:30:20.750 --> 00:30:23.270
but Ashley's done a good job of luring him into kind of a trap.
1547
00:30:23.420 --> 00:30:23.550
Uh,
1548
00:30:23.670 --> 00:30:25.349
she hit him right away on the training stuff,
1549
00:30:25.430 --> 00:30:25.579
uh,
1550
00:30:25.630 --> 00:30:27.050
the day that the primary began.
1551
00:30:27.469 --> 00:30:30.010
I think that probably surprised Josh because
1552
00:30:30.189 --> 00:30:32.390
she's not necessarily Miss Culture warrior.
1553
00:30:32.670 --> 00:30:35.989
And that kind of prompted him now to go really negative against her.
1554
00:30:36.489 --> 00:30:36.890
Um,
1555
00:30:36.969 --> 00:30:38.099
and that's the kind of thing though,
1556
00:30:38.140 --> 00:30:38.619
that sure,
1557
00:30:38.699 --> 00:30:40.420
you're gonna dock some points from your opponent.
1558
00:30:40.500 --> 00:30:40.790
But
1559
00:30:40.979 --> 00:30:42.010
when you're kind of running on,
1560
00:30:42.060 --> 00:30:43.449
I'm an inspirational guy,
1561
00:30:43.500 --> 00:30:43.859
I have a,
1562
00:30:43.979 --> 00:30:44.140
you know,
1563
00:30:44.260 --> 00:30:44.410
I've,
1564
00:30:44.459 --> 00:30:44.609
I've,
1565
00:30:44.660 --> 00:30:45.219
I've won the,
1566
00:30:45.510 --> 00:30:45.609
uh,
1567
00:30:45.660 --> 00:30:48.640
wheelchair Olympic gold medal basketball team twice in a row.
1568
00:30:48.709 --> 00:30:49.060
I'm just in,
1569
00:30:49.170 --> 00:30:49.250
uh,
1570
00:30:49.359 --> 00:30:49.369
and,
1571
00:30:49.540 --> 00:30:49.660
you know,
1572
00:30:49.739 --> 00:30:50.920
an everyman from Iowa,
1573
00:30:51.300 --> 00:30:53.890
and you're out there running some of the nastiest attack ads,
1574
00:30:54.140 --> 00:30:54.979
that has a tendency,
1575
00:30:55.020 --> 00:30:55.089
you know,
1576
00:30:55.119 --> 00:30:56.949
it's like dropping a nuclear bomb on your neighbor.
1577
00:30:57.040 --> 00:30:57.979
The fallout when the wind changes.
1578
00:30:58.219 --> 00:30:59.619
just ended up in your yard as well.
1579
00:31:00.040 --> 00:31:01.760
And so now what you see Ashley doing is kind
1580
00:31:01.760 --> 00:31:04.030
of outflank him in the other direction now by saying,
1581
00:31:04.199 --> 00:31:04.959
I'm the uniter,
1582
00:31:05.040 --> 00:31:06.359
I work across the aisle,
1583
00:31:06.640 --> 00:31:08.239
kind of boxing him in a little bit.
1584
00:31:08.319 --> 00:31:08.430
So,
1585
00:31:08.439 --> 00:31:09.260
I think tactically,
1586
00:31:09.339 --> 00:31:10.859
she has run a pretty good campaign,
1587
00:31:10.920 --> 00:31:11.439
at least in,
1588
00:31:11.599 --> 00:31:12.920
in terms of the air war here.
1589
00:31:13.479 --> 00:31:13.670
And it,
1590
00:31:13.719 --> 00:31:14.939
and it does seem to be very,
1591
00:31:15.040 --> 00:31:15.760
very close.
1592
00:31:15.880 --> 00:31:16.040
You know,
1593
00:31:16.119 --> 00:31:16.400
I,
1594
00:31:16.599 --> 00:31:16.680
I,
1595
00:31:16.780 --> 00:31:16.920
you know,
1596
00:31:17.000 --> 00:31:17.199
the,
1597
00:31:17.359 --> 00:31:17.560
the,
1598
00:31:17.670 --> 00:31:19.739
the trans issue is an interesting one here because,
1599
00:31:20.040 --> 00:31:20.390
um,
1600
00:31:20.560 --> 00:31:20.680
you know,
1601
00:31:20.750 --> 00:31:20.829
and,
1602
00:31:20.949 --> 00:31:22.319
and we're seeing this a lot in Texas.
1603
00:31:22.390 --> 00:31:24.219
I'd love to hear your thoughts on the Texas race because
1604
00:31:24.560 --> 00:31:24.689
You know,
1605
00:31:24.770 --> 00:31:24.839
the,
1606
00:31:24.890 --> 00:31:24.959
the,
1607
00:31:25.010 --> 00:31:25.910
the Tallarico,
1608
00:31:26.050 --> 00:31:26.170
uh,
1609
00:31:26.290 --> 00:31:27.140
Paxton situation,
1610
00:31:27.369 --> 00:31:27.589
what,
1611
00:31:27.810 --> 00:31:30.140
what Paxton's attempting to do here and all the
1612
00:31:30.140 --> 00:31:32.189
super PAC money that's flowing into the state right now
1613
00:31:32.489 --> 00:31:34.609
is trying to say basically Tallarico's weird,
1614
00:31:34.770 --> 00:31:35.250
kind of like,
1615
00:31:35.329 --> 00:31:35.530
you know,
1616
00:31:35.930 --> 00:31:37.089
we saw that approach a little bit,
1617
00:31:37.209 --> 00:31:37.449
um,
1618
00:31:37.560 --> 00:31:37.869
you know,
1619
00:31:38.130 --> 00:31:38.359
by,
1620
00:31:38.729 --> 00:31:39.689
by Tim Walls.
1621
00:31:39.994 --> 00:31:41.015
Back in 2024,
1622
00:31:41.354 --> 00:31:41.635
but to say,
1623
00:31:41.714 --> 00:31:41.795
hey,
1624
00:31:41.915 --> 00:31:41.994
Tim,
1625
00:31:42.114 --> 00:31:42.314
you know,
1626
00:31:42.594 --> 00:31:43.275
Tallarico's weird.
1627
00:31:43.354 --> 00:31:43.704
He says,
1628
00:31:43.875 --> 00:31:45.025
says all these weird things.
1629
00:31:45.785 --> 00:31:46.354
People obviously,
1630
00:31:46.515 --> 00:31:46.635
you know,
1631
00:31:46.704 --> 00:31:47.714
it's an 80/20,
1632
00:31:47.834 --> 00:31:47.954
you know,
1633
00:31:48.275 --> 00:31:49.474
90-10 type issue,
1634
00:31:49.584 --> 00:31:49.724
right?
1635
00:31:49.834 --> 00:31:51.295
People don't believe girls can
1636
00:31:51.515 --> 00:31:54.055
change into boys with a series of magical words.
1637
00:31:54.074 --> 00:31:55.175
most people don't believe that.
1638
00:31:55.435 --> 00:31:56.584
But I do wonder
1639
00:31:56.824 --> 00:31:59.234
if that is going to be an effective tactic right now
1640
00:31:59.234 --> 00:32:01.074
when you're talking about the other things you mentioned with,
1641
00:32:01.194 --> 00:32:02.584
with the tariffs and the war and,
1642
00:32:02.635 --> 00:32:04.234
and all these other things that are hitting people,
1643
00:32:04.314 --> 00:32:05.234
gas prices.
1644
00:32:05.714 --> 00:32:06.974
Can that stuff,
1645
00:32:07.035 --> 00:32:07.344
uh,
1646
00:32:07.474 --> 00:32:08.925
work in this environment?
1647
00:32:10.150 --> 00:32:10.530
Uh,
1648
00:32:10.589 --> 00:32:12.569
I think it would be working a lot better,
1649
00:32:12.869 --> 00:32:13.349
um,
1650
00:32:13.510 --> 00:32:13.910
if,
1651
00:32:14.069 --> 00:32:14.260
uh,
1652
00:32:14.430 --> 00:32:17.069
Paxton had made a couple of different life choices
1653
00:32:17.510 --> 00:32:20.589
and had run a better campaign in the last couple of months.
1654
00:32:21.109 --> 00:32:21.589
Um,
1655
00:32:21.839 --> 00:32:22.270
in fact,
1656
00:32:22.550 --> 00:32:23.109
I don't,
1657
00:32:23.589 --> 00:32:23.750
I mean,
1658
00:32:23.829 --> 00:32:24.569
you're in Texas,
1659
00:32:24.750 --> 00:32:25.709
but you tell me.
1660
00:32:26.579 --> 00:32:28.250
I never even see this guy.
1661
00:32:28.420 --> 00:32:29.660
I don't ever hear him.
1662
00:32:29.800 --> 00:32:30.280
I hear
1663
00:32:30.780 --> 00:32:31.339
mess I hear,
1664
00:32:31.579 --> 00:32:33.640
I hear Auntie Tallarico messaging.
1665
00:32:34.300 --> 00:32:35.050
But when the best,
1666
00:32:35.300 --> 00:32:38.040
the best commercial I've seen you affirmatively put out
1667
00:32:38.540 --> 00:32:39.040
is
1668
00:32:39.170 --> 00:32:39.500
the wife,
1669
00:32:39.699 --> 00:32:40.839
is the wife you left.
1670
00:32:41.579 --> 00:32:41.819
And,
1671
00:32:41.859 --> 00:32:42.969
and she's essentially creating,
1672
00:32:43.020 --> 00:32:44.300
as David Axelrod would call it,
1673
00:32:44.380 --> 00:32:45.520
a permission structure
1674
00:32:46.219 --> 00:32:46.420
to say,
1675
00:32:46.500 --> 00:32:46.579
hey,
1676
00:32:46.739 --> 00:32:46.750
uh,
1677
00:32:46.900 --> 00:32:48.119
she didn't mention his name either,
1678
00:32:48.420 --> 00:32:48.859
but I'm willing,
1679
00:32:48.939 --> 00:32:49.099
I'm,
1680
00:32:49.219 --> 00:32:51.239
I'm gonna vote Republican up and down the ticket.
1681
00:32:51.619 --> 00:32:51.770
I,
1682
00:32:51.819 --> 00:32:52.459
I just think,
1683
00:32:52.579 --> 00:32:52.660
I,
1684
00:32:52.739 --> 00:32:52.900
I,
1685
00:32:53.020 --> 00:32:53.050
I,
1686
00:32:53.180 --> 00:32:53.400
unless,
1687
00:32:53.530 --> 00:32:54.920
Ken is one of the best,
1688
00:32:55.339 --> 00:32:56.439
private life aside.
1689
00:32:56.939 --> 00:32:57.060
If,
1690
00:32:57.140 --> 00:32:59.300
if you were to take the last 5 years,
1691
00:32:59.420 --> 00:32:59.810
take Trump,
1692
00:33:00.140 --> 00:33:01.520
take Trump off the list.
1693
00:33:01.819 --> 00:33:03.130
Over the last 5 years,
1694
00:33:03.380 --> 00:33:03.650
you know,
1695
00:33:04.060 --> 00:33:05.420
name me 5 Republicans.
1696
00:33:05.810 --> 00:33:08.329
That have done the most damage to the deep state,
1697
00:33:08.449 --> 00:33:09.689
to the Democratic Party,
1698
00:33:09.969 --> 00:33:10.109
uh,
1699
00:33:10.199 --> 00:33:13.329
that have the most noteworthy wins on behalf of our value system.
1700
00:33:13.560 --> 00:33:14.829
DeSantis is going to be on that list,
1701
00:33:14.890 --> 00:33:15.290
for example.
1702
00:33:15.390 --> 00:33:15.560
I,
1703
00:33:15.770 --> 00:33:17.030
Ken Paxton's gonna be on that list,
1704
00:33:17.089 --> 00:33:17.790
which is why our,
1705
00:33:18.010 --> 00:33:20.449
our base enthusiastically want him to run for Senate.
1706
00:33:20.890 --> 00:33:21.050
But,
1707
00:33:21.130 --> 00:33:21.959
but here's the thing,
1708
00:33:22.069 --> 00:33:22.079
uh,
1709
00:33:22.329 --> 00:33:22.609
you know,
1710
00:33:22.729 --> 00:33:23.239
uh,
1711
00:33:24.119 --> 00:33:26.689
Margaret Thatcher once famously said to George HW Bush
1712
00:33:26.689 --> 00:33:28.319
on the eve of the first Iraq War,
1713
00:33:28.609 --> 00:33:29.920
this is no time to get wobbly,
1714
00:33:30.050 --> 00:33:30.329
George.
1715
00:33:30.530 --> 00:33:30.930
All right?
1716
00:33:31.280 --> 00:33:31.359
Well,
1717
00:33:31.410 --> 00:33:31.689
frankly,
1718
00:33:31.810 --> 00:33:32.050
Ken,
1719
00:33:32.209 --> 00:33:32.650
you did the,
1720
00:33:32.729 --> 00:33:33.650
you did the deeds,
1721
00:33:33.920 --> 00:33:34.170
all right?
1722
00:33:34.290 --> 00:33:34.410
You,
1723
00:33:34.489 --> 00:33:34.760
you did,
1724
00:33:34.839 --> 00:33:35.040
you did,
1725
00:33:35.050 --> 00:33:35.400
frankly,
1726
00:33:35.410 --> 00:33:36.130
some shameful things,
1727
00:33:36.199 --> 00:33:37.569
but this is no time to get shameful,
1728
00:33:37.969 --> 00:33:38.290
George.
1729
00:33:38.489 --> 00:33:38.910
All right?
1730
00:33:39.250 --> 00:33:39.410
Uh,
1731
00:33:39.489 --> 00:33:40.439
he needs to be out there more.
1732
00:33:40.489 --> 00:33:41.750
He needs to campaign more,
1733
00:33:42.170 --> 00:33:42.800
um,
1734
00:33:43.130 --> 00:33:43.140
uh,
1735
00:33:43.290 --> 00:33:44.010
because here's the thing,
1736
00:33:44.089 --> 00:33:44.099
uh,
1737
00:33:44.449 --> 00:33:45.829
he's just getting now,
1738
00:33:45.930 --> 00:33:46.089
he's,
1739
00:33:46.170 --> 00:33:48.089
he still is just kind of getting negatives.
1740
00:33:48.699 --> 00:33:49.020
For the,
1741
00:33:49.140 --> 00:33:52.560
the stuff he's done in his private life and not enough credit
1742
00:33:52.859 --> 00:33:56.250
for all the fantastic things he's done as a public servant,
1743
00:33:56.449 --> 00:33:56.790
right?
1744
00:33:57.260 --> 00:33:59.380
Because that's part of your character and your integrity as well.
1745
00:33:59.459 --> 00:33:59.650
I mean,
1746
00:33:59.699 --> 00:34:00.060
what would,
1747
00:34:00.260 --> 00:34:02.880
what would cause your ex-wife that you left behind,
1748
00:34:03.300 --> 00:34:06.060
that you abandoned after decades of marriage to turn right around and say,
1749
00:34:06.180 --> 00:34:07.680
but we got to vote for this guy anyway,
1750
00:34:08.060 --> 00:34:10.300
because even she has to acknowledge for all of your faults,
1751
00:34:10.310 --> 00:34:11.739
and she's seen him better than anybody else,
1752
00:34:11.780 --> 00:34:13.280
and it's hurt her more than anyone else,
1753
00:34:13.620 --> 00:34:16.219
but she has to acknowledge what you've done as a public servant,
1754
00:34:16.260 --> 00:34:16.659
as an attorney.
1755
00:34:16.810 --> 00:34:19.800
General in Texas is vastly superior than what Tallarico
1756
00:34:19.800 --> 00:34:21.800
could fever dream to do as a US senator,
1757
00:34:22.090 --> 00:34:22.320
right?
1758
00:34:22.530 --> 00:34:24.489
He needs to be out there more.
1759
00:34:24.649 --> 00:34:24.760
Uh,
1760
00:34:24.810 --> 00:34:26.050
he needs to be campaigning more,
1761
00:34:26.129 --> 00:34:26.958
out there more,
1762
00:34:27.330 --> 00:34:27.489
and,
1763
00:34:27.570 --> 00:34:27.770
and,
1764
00:34:27.850 --> 00:34:28.040
and,
1765
00:34:28.120 --> 00:34:28.570
and
1766
00:34:28.850 --> 00:34:31.290
not be ashamed whatsoever of the things that he's
1767
00:34:31.290 --> 00:34:33.208
done on behalf of the state of Texas as,
1768
00:34:33.320 --> 00:34:33.929
as the AG.
1769
00:34:34.168 --> 00:34:34.830
And if he does that,
1770
00:34:34.909 --> 00:34:35.478
I think he'll win.
1771
00:34:35.530 --> 00:34:36.590
I think it'll be ugly,
1772
00:34:37.040 --> 00:34:37.770
but I think he'll win.
1773
00:34:37.889 --> 00:34:37.958
Yeah,
1774
00:34:38.010 --> 00:34:39.570
I keep coming back to this idea that it's just,
1775
00:34:39.649 --> 00:34:40.228
it's like
1776
00:34:40.418 --> 00:34:41.280
a lot of people want to say,
1777
00:34:41.370 --> 00:34:41.449
well,
1778
00:34:41.489 --> 00:34:42.370
I don't like Ken Paxton,
1779
00:34:42.449 --> 00:34:44.330
and there's definitely a section of Republicans,
1780
00:34:44.438 --> 00:34:46.129
certainly independents who feel that way.
1781
00:34:46.590 --> 00:34:46.949
Uh,
1782
00:34:47.159 --> 00:34:49.830
but I just keep coming back to the idea of like you walk into that voting booth,
1783
00:34:49.870 --> 00:34:50.179
and it's like,
1784
00:34:50.188 --> 00:34:51.290
are you really,
1785
00:34:51.629 --> 00:34:53.949
you're really gonna pull the lever for Tallarico?
1786
00:34:54.060 --> 00:34:54.510
The question is,
1787
00:34:54.550 --> 00:34:55.889
do they just stay home?
1788
00:34:56.188 --> 00:34:56.429
Um,
1789
00:34:56.510 --> 00:34:56.938
but
1790
00:34:57.149 --> 00:34:58.270
when it comes down to that moment,
1791
00:34:58.350 --> 00:34:58.530
right,
1792
00:34:58.659 --> 00:35:00.070
this is the moment where you actually have to consider,
1793
00:35:00.179 --> 00:35:00.310
hey,
1794
00:35:00.429 --> 00:35:01.709
Tallarico is going to be,
1795
00:35:01.750 --> 00:35:01.909
uh,
1796
00:35:02.020 --> 00:35:02.310
you know,
1797
00:35:02.750 --> 00:35:03.679
representing me.
1798
00:35:04.550 --> 00:35:04.580
That,
1799
00:35:04.590 --> 00:35:07.050
that's a moment that I feel like Texans will reject,
1800
00:35:07.270 --> 00:35:07.429
but,
1801
00:35:07.550 --> 00:35:07.820
uh,
1802
00:35:08.270 --> 00:35:08.659
honestly,
1803
00:35:08.709 --> 00:35:08.969
like,
1804
00:35:08.989 --> 00:35:09.229
I,
1805
00:35:09.510 --> 00:35:09.770
I,
1806
00:35:10.030 --> 00:35:12.050
I don't have a lot of optimism about that race right now.
1807
00:35:12.649 --> 00:35:14.239
I think that to me
1808
00:35:14.409 --> 00:35:17.409
when nerds like you and me get together after this election is over,
1809
00:35:17.560 --> 00:35:18.179
um,
1810
00:35:18.939 --> 00:35:19.560
in the past,
1811
00:35:19.760 --> 00:35:23.350
you could look at polls like remember whenever we tried to unskew the polls in 2012,
1812
00:35:23.500 --> 00:35:23.860
remember this,
1813
00:35:23.979 --> 00:35:24.320
right?
1814
00:35:24.820 --> 00:35:28.139
And it turned out they were exactly right because a lot of people don't understand.
1815
00:35:28.429 --> 00:35:30.260
The polls are not just looking for results,
1816
00:35:30.290 --> 00:35:31.669
but they're measuring voter intensity,
1817
00:35:31.750 --> 00:35:31.929
right?
1818
00:35:32.030 --> 00:35:34.750
And the more enthusiastic you are about a cycle in your candidate,
1819
00:35:34.989 --> 00:35:35.610
traditionally,
1820
00:35:35.689 --> 00:35:37.209
the more likely you are to respond.
1821
00:35:37.669 --> 00:35:38.870
And so it turns out that,
1822
00:35:38.949 --> 00:35:39.110
you know,
1823
00:35:39.270 --> 00:35:39.389
the,
1824
00:35:39.469 --> 00:35:39.629
the,
1825
00:35:39.699 --> 00:35:40.350
the plus 5,
1826
00:35:40.389 --> 00:35:43.010
+ 6 models that we saw in 2012
1827
00:35:43.229 --> 00:35:44.110
turned out to be accurate.
1828
00:35:44.260 --> 00:35:44.689
And in fact,
1829
00:35:44.830 --> 00:35:48.350
about 4.5 million fewer white people voted for Romney than they did McCain
1830
00:35:48.629 --> 00:35:49.129
in that race.
1831
00:35:49.270 --> 00:35:50.629
He won independences and lost.
1832
00:35:50.699 --> 00:35:51.510
He's the first Republican,
1833
00:35:51.580 --> 00:35:52.699
the only that's ever done that.
1834
00:35:52.949 --> 00:35:55.270
He won independences and lost a presidential election.
1835
00:35:55.699 --> 00:35:56.199
And so,
1836
00:35:56.350 --> 00:35:58.020
what's transpired since though,
1837
00:35:58.300 --> 00:36:00.620
is because our base is less suburban.
1838
00:36:00.929 --> 00:36:02.070
And more rural.
1839
00:36:02.489 --> 00:36:02.570
Well,
1840
00:36:02.649 --> 00:36:03.649
rurals are,
1841
00:36:03.689 --> 00:36:06.090
are less likely to respond to polls anyway,
1842
00:36:06.409 --> 00:36:09.120
but especially if you're a rural voting for Trump.
1843
00:36:09.330 --> 00:36:10.709
You don't trust any of the media,
1844
00:36:10.929 --> 00:36:12.409
you're not talking to any of them.
1845
00:36:12.729 --> 00:36:14.340
So on top of the fact
1846
00:36:14.610 --> 00:36:14.770
that,
1847
00:36:14.850 --> 00:36:15.010
you know,
1848
00:36:15.050 --> 00:36:16.010
as we are transitioning,
1849
00:36:16.080 --> 00:36:18.649
it's still the best way to poll is to talk to a real person,
1850
00:36:18.709 --> 00:36:20.409
but it's harder and harder to do that.
1851
00:36:20.689 --> 00:36:21.729
And so now people are like,
1852
00:36:21.810 --> 00:36:23.610
I was never called by a pollster in my life,
1853
00:36:23.689 --> 00:36:26.370
but I'm getting 75 texts from pollsters every single day,
1854
00:36:26.489 --> 00:36:26.649
right?
1855
00:36:27.409 --> 00:36:29.199
Methodologies are kind of off too,
1856
00:36:29.320 --> 00:36:30.360
trying to figure this out.
1857
00:36:30.679 --> 00:36:31.239
And I think what,
1858
00:36:31.320 --> 00:36:31.479
what,
1859
00:36:31.600 --> 00:36:32.439
what we're gonna learn now,
1860
00:36:32.560 --> 00:36:34.080
the president back on the stump and,
1861
00:36:34.149 --> 00:36:36.239
and going hard negative to inspire and fire up
1862
00:36:36.239 --> 00:36:38.620
his base about how much everybody hates the Democrats,
1863
00:36:38.959 --> 00:36:42.520
I think we're gonna find out how much we can truly trust sample,
1864
00:36:42.600 --> 00:36:42.719
uh,
1865
00:36:42.800 --> 00:36:43.280
you know,
1866
00:36:43.530 --> 00:36:43.949
um,
1867
00:36:44.199 --> 00:36:44.439
uh,
1868
00:36:44.760 --> 00:36:45.560
oversampled,
1869
00:36:45.639 --> 00:36:45.929
uh,
1870
00:36:46.159 --> 00:36:46.679
samples,
1871
00:36:46.719 --> 00:36:48.689
oversampled samples now moving forward.
1872
00:36:49.389 --> 00:36:50.600
Because what you've seen in the last,
1873
00:36:50.669 --> 00:36:51.429
in the Trump era,
1874
00:36:51.479 --> 00:36:53.360
in all of these Midwestern states.
1875
00:36:53.780 --> 00:36:54.300
Um,
1876
00:36:54.419 --> 00:36:55.419
even down to Texas,
1877
00:36:55.459 --> 00:36:56.179
is he's been under,
1878
00:36:56.300 --> 00:36:57.070
his base has been,
1879
00:36:57.080 --> 00:36:57.129
and,
1880
00:36:57.199 --> 00:36:59.600
and Republicans have been under-polled in every one of the cycles
1881
00:37:00.020 --> 00:37:00.219
in the,
1882
00:37:00.300 --> 00:37:00.780
in the Trump,
1883
00:37:00.850 --> 00:37:00.929
uh,
1884
00:37:00.939 --> 00:37:01.419
era,
1885
00:37:01.540 --> 00:37:01.659
uh,
1886
00:37:01.770 --> 00:37:03.159
in that part of the country where
1887
00:37:03.340 --> 00:37:04.659
his rural base really,
1888
00:37:04.739 --> 00:37:06.000
really turns out for him.
1889
00:37:06.459 --> 00:37:07.300
And so it,
1890
00:37:07.379 --> 00:37:07.489
it,
1891
00:37:07.570 --> 00:37:08.290
it is now,
1892
00:37:08.340 --> 00:37:08.370
are,
1893
00:37:08.620 --> 00:37:09.959
is that gonna happen again here,
1894
00:37:10.419 --> 00:37:13.479
or is the polling picking up that that base is demoralized?
1895
00:37:13.699 --> 00:37:15.500
And so they're not gonna show up on election day,
1896
00:37:15.580 --> 00:37:15.739
right?
1897
00:37:15.820 --> 00:37:16.179
To me,
1898
00:37:16.580 --> 00:37:16.850
that's,
1899
00:37:16.860 --> 00:37:17.100
I think,
1900
00:37:17.179 --> 00:37:19.780
gonna be a nerd technocrat question we're gonna answer
1901
00:37:19.780 --> 00:37:21.239
when the results come in in 4 weeks.
1902
00:37:21.379 --> 00:37:21.580
Yeah,
1903
00:37:21.649 --> 00:37:22.419
it's gonna be interesting.
1904
00:37:22.510 --> 00:37:22.659
Uh,
1905
00:37:22.739 --> 00:37:23.530
last one for you here,
1906
00:37:23.620 --> 00:37:23.739
Steve.
1907
00:37:23.780 --> 00:37:25.340
I got a couple more minutes,
1908
00:37:25.780 --> 00:37:26.100
um.
1909
00:37:27.679 --> 00:37:28.830
If you're looking around the country,
1910
00:37:29.370 --> 00:37:29.850
number one,
1911
00:37:30.050 --> 00:37:30.169
what,
1912
00:37:30.250 --> 00:37:31.679
what do you think about control of the Senate?
1913
00:37:31.719 --> 00:37:33.280
What's your feeling on that right now?
1914
00:37:33.610 --> 00:37:33.760
Uh,
1915
00:37:33.850 --> 00:37:34.429
and what,
1916
00:37:34.770 --> 00:37:34.969
what,
1917
00:37:35.090 --> 00:37:37.110
what race are you looking at to maybe be
1918
00:37:37.239 --> 00:37:37.959
the most important?
1919
00:37:38.330 --> 00:37:38.909
Ohio,
1920
00:37:39.000 --> 00:37:39.790
is it Kansas?
1921
00:37:39.820 --> 00:37:40.729
Is it Iowa,
1922
00:37:40.889 --> 00:37:41.439
Michigan,
1923
00:37:41.570 --> 00:37:41.860
Maine?
1924
00:37:42.010 --> 00:37:42.830
What are you looking at
1925
00:37:43.010 --> 00:37:43.250
there?
1926
00:37:44.209 --> 00:37:44.429
Well,
1927
00:37:44.570 --> 00:37:46.209
I think let's start with the second question first,
1928
00:37:46.250 --> 00:37:46.800
if you don't mind.
1929
00:37:47.050 --> 00:37:48.709
Outside of my own home state governor's race,
1930
00:37:48.729 --> 00:37:50.709
because of everything at stake and everything we built in Iowa,
1931
00:37:50.729 --> 00:37:51.629
and it's where I live,
1932
00:37:52.040 --> 00:37:52.610
if I could,
1933
00:37:52.729 --> 00:37:56.209
if the Lord said I could singularly determine one election
1934
00:37:56.209 --> 00:37:58.250
outcome in this cycle outside of my governor's race,
1935
00:37:58.479 --> 00:37:59.669
it'd be the Senate race
1936
00:37:59.929 --> 00:38:00.629
in Michigan.
1937
00:38:01.209 --> 00:38:01.479
Uh,
1938
00:38:01.649 --> 00:38:02.760
that to me is,
1939
00:38:02.820 --> 00:38:03.439
pardon the pun,
1940
00:38:03.770 --> 00:38:04.989
camel's nose under the tent.
1941
00:38:05.239 --> 00:38:05.600
Uh,
1942
00:38:05.850 --> 00:38:06.929
if you want to know how,
1943
00:38:07.010 --> 00:38:08.540
how does England end up where it is?
1944
00:38:09.090 --> 00:38:10.449
How does France end up where it is?
1945
00:38:11.120 --> 00:38:11.350
You know,
1946
00:38:11.459 --> 00:38:12.719
it starts with people like,
1947
00:38:12.840 --> 00:38:13.020
well,
1948
00:38:13.149 --> 00:38:14.000
what's happened to Dearborn?
1949
00:38:14.010 --> 00:38:15.360
I was just there about a week and a half ago,
1950
00:38:15.500 --> 00:38:15.709
Stu,
1951
00:38:15.760 --> 00:38:16.100
for
1952
00:38:16.320 --> 00:38:17.100
TPUSA at,
1953
00:38:17.199 --> 00:38:17.510
at,
1954
00:38:17.639 --> 00:38:19.219
at their pastors summit speaking there.
1955
00:38:19.479 --> 00:38:19.600
I mean,
1956
00:38:19.679 --> 00:38:20.719
there's ISIS flags in,
1957
00:38:20.780 --> 00:38:22.000
in nearby Dearborn.
1958
00:38:22.469 --> 00:38:22.830
OK.
1959
00:38:22.989 --> 00:38:25.020
And that's right out of where El Sayed comes from.
1960
00:38:25.479 --> 00:38:26.719
So this is where it starts.
1961
00:38:26.790 --> 00:38:26.909
They,
1962
00:38:27.000 --> 00:38:27.129
they,
1963
00:38:27.239 --> 00:38:27.679
they get a,
1964
00:38:27.760 --> 00:38:29.939
a critical mass within a community,
1965
00:38:30.000 --> 00:38:31.500
and it becomes like a no go zone,
1966
00:38:31.879 --> 00:38:32.899
like what you saw in London.
1967
00:38:33.320 --> 00:38:33.840
Next thing you know,
1968
00:38:33.919 --> 00:38:35.669
they're getting people elected to parliament.
1969
00:38:35.760 --> 00:38:36.479
Next thing you know,
1970
00:38:36.719 --> 00:38:36.870
you know,
1971
00:38:37.159 --> 00:38:40.560
John Cleese has got to lawyer up because of what he said about Islam on Twitter,
1972
00:38:40.750 --> 00:38:41.139
right?
1973
00:38:41.560 --> 00:38:42.510
This is where,
1974
00:38:42.620 --> 00:38:43.520
this is where it starts.
1975
00:38:43.590 --> 00:38:44.110
And it's got a,
1976
00:38:44.320 --> 00:38:46.129
Mike Rogers is not a great candidate,
1977
00:38:46.570 --> 00:38:46.750
um,
1978
00:38:46.800 --> 00:38:49.790
but he's got a real shot because of who the Democrats nominated,
1979
00:38:49.879 --> 00:38:50.239
um.
1980
00:38:50.610 --> 00:38:54.489
And Democratic polling in Michigan has not really been that good this entire cycle,
1981
00:38:54.540 --> 00:38:56.639
even before the Iran war and everything else.
1982
00:38:57.219 --> 00:38:57.340
There,
1983
00:38:57.439 --> 00:39:00.310
there's clearly an audience in my former home state of Michigan that,
1984
00:39:00.379 --> 00:39:00.879
that is
1985
00:39:01.320 --> 00:39:03.250
entertaining the idea of moving on.
1986
00:39:03.540 --> 00:39:03.659
Uh,
1987
00:39:03.770 --> 00:39:05.860
let's just say from what Democrats have done to the state.
1988
00:39:06.300 --> 00:39:06.580
And then,
1989
00:39:06.699 --> 00:39:06.709
uh,
1990
00:39:06.820 --> 00:39:07.060
I mean,
1991
00:39:07.169 --> 00:39:07.340
to me,
1992
00:39:07.379 --> 00:39:08.649
the House was always going to be tough.
1993
00:39:08.699 --> 00:39:09.340
I think it's only what,
1994
00:39:09.379 --> 00:39:10.979
23 times in 91 years,
1995
00:39:11.060 --> 00:39:11.780
the party that,
1996
00:39:12.060 --> 00:39:12.370
uh,
1997
00:39:12.580 --> 00:39:13.600
won the presidency,
1998
00:39:13.620 --> 00:39:13.820
got,
1999
00:39:14.020 --> 00:39:14.179
you know,
2000
00:39:14.300 --> 00:39:15.899
grew in House seats in the next midterm.
2001
00:39:16.280 --> 00:39:17.879
The Senate to me is the battle,
2002
00:39:18.050 --> 00:39:18.280
um,
2003
00:39:18.520 --> 00:39:20.310
because that's where confirmations take place and,
2004
00:39:20.560 --> 00:39:20.959
and literally,
2005
00:39:21.040 --> 00:39:22.790
this republic is hanging by a thread because we
2006
00:39:22.790 --> 00:39:25.459
have 2 80-year-old Supreme Court justices doing the hanging.
2007
00:39:25.709 --> 00:39:26.020
Uh,
2008
00:39:26.159 --> 00:39:26.879
so we've,
2009
00:39:27.000 --> 00:39:28.439
we've got to make sure we can replace them.
2010
00:39:28.520 --> 00:39:29.570
I think it's 50/50,
2011
00:39:29.639 --> 00:39:30.179
55,
2012
00:39:30.199 --> 00:39:31.100
45 right now,
2013
00:39:31.679 --> 00:39:31.760
that,
2014
00:39:31.800 --> 00:39:33.090
that we're gonna win the Senate.
2015
00:39:33.350 --> 00:39:33.629
Um,
2016
00:39:33.760 --> 00:39:34.469
that's where I would,
2017
00:39:34.560 --> 00:39:34.649
uh,
2018
00:39:34.750 --> 00:39:34.959
and I,
2019
00:39:35.040 --> 00:39:37.600
and I would be shocked if Democrats did not get even
2020
00:39:37.600 --> 00:39:39.800
like a 5 or 6-seat majority at least in the House.
2021
00:39:40.270 --> 00:39:40.679
Uh,
2022
00:39:40.840 --> 00:39:41.159
I lied.
2023
00:39:41.199 --> 00:39:42.280
I have one more quick one for you,
2024
00:39:42.429 --> 00:39:42.600
Steve.
2025
00:39:42.709 --> 00:39:42.850
If you,
2026
00:39:42.989 --> 00:39:43.439
if you don't have anything,
2027
00:39:43.560 --> 00:39:43.840
let me know.
2028
00:39:43.919 --> 00:39:45.699
But I know you look at prediction markets.
2029
00:39:45.760 --> 00:39:46.060
Um,
2030
00:39:46.229 --> 00:39:46.560
uh,
2031
00:39:46.989 --> 00:39:48.239
is there a race that you look at and you're like,
2032
00:39:48.280 --> 00:39:50.010
this is just outside of your own home state?
2033
00:39:50.080 --> 00:39:51.159
Is there one that you look at and you're like,
2034
00:39:51.199 --> 00:39:52.120
this is just mispriced.
2035
00:39:52.209 --> 00:39:52.770
This is out of,
2036
00:39:52.919 --> 00:39:53.280
this is,
2037
00:39:53.459 --> 00:39:54.719
this is wrong right now.
2038
00:39:55.000 --> 00:39:56.719
People aren't looking at this race the right way.
2039
00:40:01.439 --> 00:40:01.679
Uh,
2040
00:40:01.800 --> 00:40:02.040
I,
2041
00:40:02.120 --> 00:40:02.439
I,
2042
00:40:02.600 --> 00:40:02.840
I,
2043
00:40:02.959 --> 00:40:04.219
I definitely think,
2044
00:40:04.439 --> 00:40:04.959
uh,
2045
00:40:05.239 --> 00:40:06.459
the Minnesota race
2046
00:40:07.260 --> 00:40:08.879
is another race with Michelle Tafoya.
2047
00:40:08.989 --> 00:40:09.260
In fact,
2048
00:40:09.320 --> 00:40:09.919
I'm more,
2049
00:40:10.120 --> 00:40:12.929
I'm more optimistic on Minnesota and New Hampshire
2050
00:40:13.439 --> 00:40:14.100
than I am
2051
00:40:14.229 --> 00:40:15.560
North Carolina and Georgia.
2052
00:40:16.120 --> 00:40:16.709
Um,
2053
00:40:16.800 --> 00:40:17.429
and so,
2054
00:40:17.729 --> 00:40:19.629
two states that the president won,
2055
00:40:19.969 --> 00:40:20.989
2 states that he did not.
2056
00:40:21.129 --> 00:40:21.250
There,
2057
00:40:21.649 --> 00:40:22.209
there's just,
2058
00:40:22.399 --> 00:40:22.510
and,
2059
00:40:22.570 --> 00:40:22.729
you know,
2060
00:40:22.929 --> 00:40:24.370
John Sununu or Chris Sununu,
2061
00:40:24.449 --> 00:40:25.610
I can't remember which Sununu it is.
2062
00:40:25.929 --> 00:40:27.689
Not my brand of Republican by any means,
2063
00:40:27.810 --> 00:40:29.550
but it's a potent brand in that state.
2064
00:40:30.050 --> 00:40:33.159
And so that brand gives you a chance to transcend the environment.
2065
00:40:33.449 --> 00:40:35.330
And Michelle Tafoya is running a heck of a race.
2066
00:40:35.379 --> 00:40:36.530
I was a little concerned,
2067
00:40:36.969 --> 00:40:37.320
you know,
2068
00:40:37.810 --> 00:40:39.790
because she comes out of mainstream media
2069
00:40:40.010 --> 00:40:41.709
that she wasn't gonna have
2070
00:40:41.850 --> 00:40:42.120
the,
2071
00:40:42.169 --> 00:40:42.560
uh,
2072
00:40:42.889 --> 00:40:43.010
the,
2073
00:40:43.129 --> 00:40:43.290
the,
2074
00:40:43.409 --> 00:40:43.810
the blood,
2075
00:40:43.929 --> 00:40:45.330
the taste for the blood sport of this.
2076
00:40:45.810 --> 00:40:46.219
But no,
2077
00:40:46.300 --> 00:40:46.540
I mean,
2078
00:40:46.659 --> 00:40:47.219
she has,
2079
00:40:47.419 --> 00:40:49.600
she has gone for some shin kicks for sure.
2080
00:40:49.939 --> 00:40:50.969
And so that,
2081
00:40:50.979 --> 00:40:52.479
I think is a race where
2082
00:40:52.739 --> 00:40:52.860
I,
2083
00:40:52.939 --> 00:40:57.320
I would not be stunned at all if that's the 50th or 51st US Senate race
2084
00:40:57.580 --> 00:40:59.689
is Michelle Tafoya pulls off that upset there.
2085
00:40:59.860 --> 00:41:01.889
They will be so pissed if that's true.
2086
00:41:01.979 --> 00:41:02.540
If they get.
2087
00:41:02.645 --> 00:41:04.804
All the way there and then lose Minnesota.
2088
00:41:04.925 --> 00:41:05.445
Oh my God,
2089
00:41:05.524 --> 00:41:06.435
I can't wait for the,
2090
00:41:06.685 --> 00:41:08.044
for the postmortem on that one.
2091
00:41:08.084 --> 00:41:09.385
It'll be fascinating.
2092
00:41:09.675 --> 00:41:09.764
Uh,
2093
00:41:09.885 --> 00:41:10.324
Steve Dace,
2094
00:41:10.435 --> 00:41:11.725
be sure to check out the Steve Day show,
2095
00:41:11.804 --> 00:41:11.925
uh,
2096
00:41:12.004 --> 00:41:12.375
Blaze TV.
2097
00:41:13.125 --> 00:41:13.324
Uh,
2098
00:41:13.485 --> 00:41:13.685
Steve,
2099
00:41:14.044 --> 00:41:14.155
uh,
2100
00:41:14.165 --> 00:41:15.995
thanks so much for all of this insight and,
2101
00:41:16.014 --> 00:41:16.364
uh,
2102
00:41:16.445 --> 00:41:16.465
I,
2103
00:41:16.485 --> 00:41:16.604
I,
2104
00:41:16.655 --> 00:41:18.485
I always love having you on to talk about all this stuff.
2105
00:41:18.564 --> 00:41:19.584
I love geeking out with you.
2106
00:41:20.125 --> 00:41:20.324
No,
2107
00:41:20.524 --> 00:41:20.844
anytime,
2108
00:41:20.925 --> 00:41:21.084
brother.
2109
00:41:21.165 --> 00:41:21.645
Good to see you.
2110
00:41:33.800 --> 00:41:34.770
Everything's running long today,
2111
00:41:34.870 --> 00:41:36.979
so we only have a couple of minutes here for Canada countdown.
2112
00:41:37.090 --> 00:41:38.790
We have 27 days until
2113
00:41:39.199 --> 00:41:40.209
the midterm election,
2114
00:41:40.290 --> 00:41:43.520
and one of the things we tried to do this week was to try to find out where the edge was,
2115
00:41:43.649 --> 00:41:44.060
right?
2116
00:41:44.530 --> 00:41:46.270
Let's say there is a huge Democratic year.
2117
00:41:46.649 --> 00:41:47.629
Where's the edge?
2118
00:41:47.909 --> 00:41:48.090
Um,
2119
00:41:48.169 --> 00:41:48.330
and,
2120
00:41:48.409 --> 00:41:48.610
you know,
2121
00:41:49.310 --> 00:41:49.469
yesterday,
2122
00:41:49.489 --> 00:41:49.969
or was it yesterday,
2123
00:41:50.020 --> 00:41:50.689
I think we did,
2124
00:41:50.770 --> 00:41:50.959
uh,
2125
00:41:50.969 --> 00:41:51.530
or two days ago,
2126
00:41:51.689 --> 00:41:52.570
we did Julia Letlow.
2127
00:41:52.649 --> 00:41:53.010
She's the,
2128
00:41:53.090 --> 00:41:53.320
uh,
2129
00:41:53.479 --> 00:41:54.669
Louisiana senator.
2130
00:41:55.169 --> 00:41:55.409
You know,
2131
00:41:55.570 --> 00:41:57.149
it's kind of a taste thing here.
2132
00:41:57.840 --> 00:42:00.469
Because I think we're safe on both of these races.
2133
00:42:00.800 --> 00:42:03.080
There's a little more risk and a little more reward for this 1.
2134
00:42:03.149 --> 00:42:04.719
27 days until the,
2135
00:42:04.800 --> 00:42:04.989
uh,
2136
00:42:05.159 --> 00:42:05.550
remaining,
2137
00:42:05.919 --> 00:42:06.719
until the midterms.
2138
00:42:06.760 --> 00:42:09.379
Our candidate of the day today is Cindy
2139
00:42:09.520 --> 00:42:10.659
Hyde-Smith
2140
00:42:11.189 --> 00:42:11.840
from Mississippi.
2141
00:42:11.879 --> 00:42:12.639
You think Mississippi,
2142
00:42:12.719 --> 00:42:13.090
Louisiana,
2143
00:42:13.179 --> 00:42:13.800
those are two races,
2144
00:42:13.860 --> 00:42:14.199
of course,
2145
00:42:14.520 --> 00:42:15.149
Republicans are gonna hold,
2146
00:42:15.199 --> 00:42:15.469
right?
2147
00:42:15.679 --> 00:42:15.959
Well,
2148
00:42:16.780 --> 00:42:17.850
This one's a little more risky.
2149
00:42:17.899 --> 00:42:18.620
You can get this race,
2150
00:42:18.699 --> 00:42:20.050
I think it's in like the 90s.
2151
00:42:20.060 --> 00:42:21.260
I'll show you the market here in a second,
2152
00:42:21.340 --> 00:42:21.580
but,
2153
00:42:21.790 --> 00:42:21.929
um,
2154
00:42:21.979 --> 00:42:24.679
Mississippi Democrats dare to wonder whether the seat
2155
00:42:24.860 --> 00:42:25.840
is in reach.
2156
00:42:26.179 --> 00:42:27.820
It doesn't feel like it should be in reach.
2157
00:42:27.860 --> 00:42:28.719
It should be easy.
2158
00:42:29.179 --> 00:42:29.340
Um,
2159
00:42:29.389 --> 00:42:29.739
however,
2160
00:42:29.860 --> 00:42:29.939
uh,
2161
00:42:30.100 --> 00:42:30.820
Cindy Hyde-Smith,
2162
00:42:30.929 --> 00:42:31.020
uh,
2163
00:42:31.100 --> 00:42:31.340
is,
2164
00:42:31.419 --> 00:42:31.530
uh,
2165
00:42:31.610 --> 00:42:31.699
you know,
2166
00:42:31.824 --> 00:42:31.915
You know,
2167
00:42:32.014 --> 00:42:32.205
uh,
2168
00:42:32.574 --> 00:42:33.064
a candidate,
2169
00:42:33.165 --> 00:42:33.175
um,
2170
00:42:33.415 --> 00:42:33.665
um,
2171
00:42:33.784 --> 00:42:34.165
that,
2172
00:42:34.185 --> 00:42:34.344
you know,
2173
00:42:34.465 --> 00:42:35.614
should be heavily favored here,
2174
00:42:35.985 --> 00:42:38.385
but there is a little bit of doubt in some people's minds.
2175
00:42:38.475 --> 00:42:38.544
Now,
2176
00:42:38.665 --> 00:42:40.284
let me give you a little bit of a background here.
2177
00:42:40.584 --> 00:42:40.945
Uh,
2178
00:42:41.185 --> 00:42:43.665
Trump carried the state 60 to 38,
2179
00:42:43.705 --> 00:42:44.945
61-38,
2180
00:42:45.064 --> 00:42:46.764
a 23 point margin.
2181
00:42:47.090 --> 00:42:47.409
Um,
2182
00:42:47.479 --> 00:42:48.129
Roger Wicker,
2183
00:42:48.209 --> 00:42:48.870
the other senator,
2184
00:42:48.969 --> 00:42:51.169
won reelection by 25 points on the same ballot.
2185
00:42:51.250 --> 00:42:52.209
So this was pretty,
2186
00:42:52.250 --> 00:42:53.530
usually smooth sailing in,
2187
00:42:53.590 --> 00:42:54.250
in Mississippi.
2188
00:42:54.570 --> 00:42:57.010
Hyde Smith has already won two statewide Senate elections.
2189
00:42:57.070 --> 00:42:58.570
You'll notice they're smaller margins though,
2190
00:42:58.770 --> 00:42:59.889
7.3 points,
2191
00:42:59.979 --> 00:43:00.169
um,
2192
00:43:00.250 --> 00:43:01.280
back in 2018.
2193
00:43:01.530 --> 00:43:02.590
Really bad year
2194
00:43:02.780 --> 00:43:03.129
for,
2195
00:43:03.169 --> 00:43:03.310
uh,
2196
00:43:03.320 --> 00:43:04.010
for Republicans.
2197
00:43:04.129 --> 00:43:04.429
So
2198
00:43:04.580 --> 00:43:05.489
she still won by 7,
2199
00:43:05.689 --> 00:43:07.590
won by 10 points in 2020.
2200
00:43:07.879 --> 00:43:08.290
Um,
2201
00:43:08.610 --> 00:43:11.209
there hasn't been a serious Republican revolt against her.
2202
00:43:11.290 --> 00:43:12.600
She won easily in the primaries.
2203
00:43:12.879 --> 00:43:16.169
She's got about 3 times as much cash on hand than her opponent.
2204
00:43:16.659 --> 00:43:16.889
And,
2205
00:43:16.969 --> 00:43:17.149
uh,
2206
00:43:17.189 --> 00:43:18.530
even some of the polling,
2207
00:43:18.610 --> 00:43:18.889
um,
2208
00:43:19.060 --> 00:43:20.590
if we can show some of these polls real quick,
2209
00:43:21.050 --> 00:43:23.000
these are all Democratic-sponsored polls.
2210
00:43:23.330 --> 00:43:23.729
They're,
2211
00:43:23.770 --> 00:43:24.250
they're like,
2212
00:43:24.330 --> 00:43:25.560
we need to release these polls.
2213
00:43:25.810 --> 00:43:26.909
What you see in them
2214
00:43:27.530 --> 00:43:28.489
largely is,
2215
00:43:28.570 --> 00:43:28.840
uh,
2216
00:43:29.050 --> 00:43:29.489
Smith,
2217
00:43:29.729 --> 00:43:29.929
the,
2218
00:43:30.010 --> 00:43:32.169
the older ones are way before even some of the primaries,
2219
00:43:32.209 --> 00:43:33.439
but like if you look at Hyde Smith,
2220
00:43:33.570 --> 00:43:34.399
the last two polls,
2221
00:43:34.570 --> 00:43:36.169
both released by her opponent,
2222
00:43:36.330 --> 00:43:37.090
Scott Colomb.
2223
00:43:37.570 --> 00:43:39.239
She's still winning by 6 points.
2224
00:43:39.570 --> 00:43:39.790
So,
2225
00:43:39.810 --> 00:43:42.199
even when they're trying to put out favorable results,
2226
00:43:42.290 --> 00:43:42.850
she's still ahead.
2227
00:43:42.929 --> 00:43:43.729
The one thing I will say here,
2228
00:43:43.770 --> 00:43:45.530
and the reason why you can get better value on this
2229
00:43:45.729 --> 00:43:47.050
is her opponent is stronger.
2230
00:43:47.330 --> 00:43:47.570
Um,
2231
00:43:47.780 --> 00:43:47.929
Scott,
2232
00:43:48.090 --> 00:43:50.510
Scott Colomb is a better opponent than Jamie Davis.
2233
00:43:50.810 --> 00:43:51.189
Um,
2234
00:43:51.409 --> 00:43:53.469
she is not particularly favorable,
2235
00:43:53.489 --> 00:43:53.520
uh,
2236
00:43:53.530 --> 00:43:54.129
in the state.
2237
00:43:54.199 --> 00:43:56.169
She doesn't have a great favorability rating.
2238
00:43:56.250 --> 00:43:58.040
She's about 10 points underwater there.
2239
00:43:58.250 --> 00:43:58.530
And of course,
2240
00:43:58.610 --> 00:43:59.959
this is a Democratic year.
2241
00:44:00.290 --> 00:44:02.850
She has underperformed the Republican ticket previously.
2242
00:44:03.350 --> 00:44:04.629
She's not the strongest a candidate.
2243
00:44:04.679 --> 00:44:04.909
Right here,
2244
00:44:04.949 --> 00:44:06.649
you're kind of just like putting all your,
2245
00:44:06.790 --> 00:44:07.090
uh,
2246
00:44:07.100 --> 00:44:07.689
eggs in,
2247
00:44:07.699 --> 00:44:07.860
uh,
2248
00:44:07.870 --> 00:44:08.820
one basket here and saying,
2249
00:44:08.870 --> 00:44:09.209
look,
2250
00:44:10.020 --> 00:44:11.159
There's gotta be a line here.
2251
00:44:11.739 --> 00:44:13.250
Democrats are not gonna win every one of these states.
2252
00:44:13.449 --> 00:44:14.860
This is freaking Mississippi.
2253
00:44:15.179 --> 00:44:16.840
This is a very Republican state.
2254
00:44:17.419 --> 00:44:19.080
This is a 20 point plus state
2255
00:44:19.300 --> 00:44:20.479
two years ago.
2256
00:44:20.979 --> 00:44:21.580
They're going,
2257
00:44:21.639 --> 00:44:23.379
this is gonna be closer than that race,
2258
00:44:23.540 --> 00:44:24.520
that I promise you,
2259
00:44:24.820 --> 00:44:26.840
but I think she still has enough room to hold on.
2260
00:44:27.340 --> 00:44:27.929
I do have an opinion,
2261
00:44:27.979 --> 00:44:28.100
uh,
2262
00:44:28.139 --> 00:44:28.300
uh,
2263
00:44:28.340 --> 00:44:28.620
market,
2264
00:44:28.699 --> 00:44:28.810
uh,
2265
00:44:28.860 --> 00:44:28.929
uh,
2266
00:44:29.000 --> 00:44:29.090
a,
2267
00:44:29.179 --> 00:44:30.870
a position on her though it's not massive,
2268
00:44:31.260 --> 00:44:32.219
because there is some risk here.
2269
00:44:32.340 --> 00:44:34.389
She's right now at 90.4%. Again,
2270
00:44:34.570 --> 00:44:35.340
Mississippi.
2271
00:44:35.669 --> 00:44:38.030
They're giving the Democrat a 10% chance to win there.
2272
00:44:38.139 --> 00:44:40.790
10% is a pretty nice return on what you get in Mississippi.
2273
00:44:41.070 --> 00:44:42.510
And if you think this is going to be a wave,
2274
00:44:42.620 --> 00:44:43.750
there's lots of value there on,
2275
00:44:43.830 --> 00:44:44.550
on Scott Colom.
2276
00:44:44.629 --> 00:44:44.750
I mean,
2277
00:44:44.790 --> 00:44:44.919
you're gonna,
2278
00:44:45.100 --> 00:44:45.620
you're looking at,
2279
00:44:45.719 --> 00:44:45.909
you know,
2280
00:44:46.149 --> 00:44:46.429
9,
2281
00:44:46.500 --> 00:44:47.489
10x your money.
2282
00:44:47.790 --> 00:44:49.550
So that's where we are on that particular race.
2283
00:44:49.629 --> 00:44:50.300
I just want to remind you,
2284
00:44:50.310 --> 00:44:51.419
PredictableShow.com.
2285
00:44:51.629 --> 00:44:52.429
Got two debates tonight.
2286
00:44:52.479 --> 00:44:53.860
I'm gonna do everything I can to watch them,
2287
00:44:54.149 --> 00:44:54.669
get in the chat,
2288
00:44:54.750 --> 00:44:55.590
maybe do some live streaming.
2289
00:44:55.629 --> 00:44:56.449
I don't know what's going on tonight.
2290
00:44:56.510 --> 00:44:57.310
I have to look at my schedule,
2291
00:44:57.389 --> 00:44:57.629
but
2292
00:44:57.969 --> 00:44:58.209
Uh,
2293
00:44:58.290 --> 00:45:00.149
I'm gonna do as much as I can to be on there with you
2294
00:45:00.409 --> 00:45:00.739
tonight
2295
00:45:00.929 --> 00:45:01.879
to talk about that.
2296
00:45:01.989 --> 00:45:03.300
You can get all the tools that we talked about,
2297
00:45:03.370 --> 00:45:05.909
the predictable midterm consensus and so much more there as well.
2298
00:45:06.129 --> 00:45:06.260
All right,
2299
00:45:06.330 --> 00:45:06.719
we gotta go.
2300
00:45:06.770 --> 00:45:07.409
We're out of time.
2301
00:45:07.479 --> 00:45:08.250
Thanks so much for joining us.
2302
00:45:08.320 --> 00:45:10.229
We'll see you at predictableshow.com.