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Speaker 1: Let's learn from last year's number one rancor. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. It is me, Joey b Joe Pisapia, that of course is Kyle Yates and it's you and we got a lot of football to do today. We have got a great guest. We're talking about some ECR rankings and there's nobody better to talk about it with than the reigning, defending undisputed champion of ranking. And he'll be on it just a second. But we have a lot of football news to break down as well. We have a running back out for the year and running back changing some addresses. We're gonna get to all of that end a little game, a little fantasy odd man out, So everybody likes a fun game Gates. What's your board game of choice? You got a board game that's your go to that you love? Board game of choice? I'm a clue guy. I like Clue. It's fun. Oh man, board games. We haven't gotten to the stage with my son where like we're playing board games regularly right Like he's still three, so it's not like we're we're playing those regularly. I'll go to one that has like some nostalgia for me, and that is playing Strtigo. I love my dad. We used to play that all the time when I was growing up, and so I absolutely love that game. That just whenever I sit down and play that, that's like, yeah, there's there's some nostalgia. I love Monopoly, but nobody will overplay it with me anymore for obvious reasons. But yeah, Strtigo is a good one. Speaking of strategy, there's nobody better here. You've seen him last week. He joined us for a little while on the fest and it's just not enough. We have to get more of our good friend Pat fitz Morris to join us again. He was the lead ranker last year on Fantasy Pros. You could check out his work at Footballgirl dot com. Also, he's the host of fits on Fantasy podcast. Pat. Welcome to the show, Champ. How are you know? I'm doing great. It's been less than a week since we spoke on the Fast, but I was counting down the hours until we could talk again, and I wasn't there with Yates. Yates was taking a break to smoke a cigar or something like that, so it's great to see him again and he's really making me feel nostalgic for Strtigo. I mean, what a great game. I know rich rebar Lord Reeves is a big fan of Statigo, and as sharp as he is, I don't think I would ever want to play him. So yeah, that was a classic for sure. It's all about having that fake area where it might be where the flag is to toop them into one area. It's the bait and switch. My kids love it. I've taught them how to play that game. It is a classic. And speaking of classic strategy, Pat has been gracious enough to give us some of his time. We're going to talk about players that he is higher and lower on in ECR compared to the rest of the consensus, and that is always an important thing to look at. We're also going to break down some of the latest news. Before we do, I just want to let everybody know once again they were given away free stuff here, So if you go to fantasypros dot com slash contest you can get involved in that. Clyde Edwards a layer free helmet giveaway. It's autographed, it's glorious. It's the inverted too. It's very sexy. When you go to Fantasypros dot Com slash Contest, you'll see the helmet and you're gonna automatically want to get involved in this and it's very simple to do so, just leave a great review of the show over on Apple Podcasts or cast box, screenshot it, subscribe to our YouTube channels, you get the three X entry, and then upload all that stuff to Fantasypros dot Com slash Contest and that autographed, inverted, really cool black and red chief's helmet can be yours again. You're welcome. We give away free stuff here. And speaking of basically free stuff, look, we're getting closer and closer to the end of draft season here and also the beginning of football season. I'm trying to help everybody out. So this is a public service announcement more than anything. Fantasy pros dot Com slash offers. All you gotta do is make a ten dollar deposit of one of our partner sites, right, so any of those partner sites, make a ten dollar deposit, play some more fantasy, and what you're gonna get is six three months of our Hall of Fame package that will take you all the way through the football season. That's a sixty five dollar value. You'll get the IDP show with that as well. If Bogman and I are gonna be hosting that every week. We just did the first one yesterday. That's gonna come out probably today, I believe, or tomorrow. So you get all these cool things, plus all the access to that great stuff at the Draft Wizard, the simulator, the cheat sheets, all the stuff that you want to be prepared for not only your draft but also all season long. That Hall of Fame package can be yours again. Just go to fantasypros dot com. Slash offers ten bucks, get you sixty five dollar value. I don't know what's better than that. Here's the league's latest news. I know certainly what we better would be a healthy Travis etn No, we're not going to get that this year, boys, so let's just start there. When we did the podcast yesterday, Yates, I was much more depressed about it than other people. I was saying, twelve weeks. I hate when I'm more right. Sometimes I just this is terrible. I've got a lot of shares. Luck most of them were as a flex RB, so that is easier to replace. But look, what's the impact here? In terms of moving up Robinson in these rankings, and also what's the impact and how do people have Etn now kind of move forward and look for something else that might be on the early waiver wire for them. Yeah, you know, this is a bummer. I was definitely excited for Travis Etn and what he could do in this Jacksonville Jaguars offense, particularly as a receiver. So I think with Etn, you know, he was placed on R before the deadline starts, where then you can place a player on IR and then they can come back earlier later on in the season. So he is like done for twenty twenty one. I mean, there's maybe a possibility, but I think he's done for all of twenty twenty one. So just if you drafted already dropped into the waiver wire, you're not going to want to stash him this entire time. So with Robinson, though obviously he benefits from this, he was a guy that I was down a little bit further down than consensus on, especially further down than ADP and with James Robinson, he moved up to RB nineteen for me. So he's a guy that I think you can get away with as a mid range RBT. You you know, he produced last year just insane numbers in a very very bad offense, but he was getting a ton of a ton of volume. I think the volume again will be there this year. But I just can't put him over guys like Ceh JK. Dobbins, you know, these other guys that have just insane upside, even Chris Carson. I just can't move him above them. So he's a fine midrange RB two. I think he slid in right after David Montgomery for me, So just kind of in that vein as how I'm viewing James Robinson for this year. All right, how about you, Pat? When you're talking about now the value of James Robinson going into the season, Look, it's refreshed, it's renewed now. So everybody who got early cheap shares of Robinson is going to benefit from this. But for those who haven't drafted yet, what's the approach when it comes to him? Yeah? So I think he finished what running back seven last year and a half point PPR. I'm not quite expecting that going to finish. We don't know quite how he's going to fit into the Urban Meyer offense. And you know, they've got Carlos Hide there and x buck Eye, so maybe he summer on too. But I've got him at running back fifteen now, just behind Clyde Edwards Hilaire and you know with some of the other guys he Eates mentioned. I've got him just ahead of Dobbin's Carson Montgomery. So I think that's kind of a tear those guys, and I'd be you know, I think we're just kind of splitting hairs with the guys from that group. But that's kind of where he belongs. He's certainly an attractive target now and like maybe the fourth round of well not even probably like the early third round of drafts. I think we might start seeing him go as early as the two three turn. So yeah, really a bummerbot et and I was, I was pretty heavily invested in him myself. But you know, hopefully he comes back good as new next year. All right, from splitting hairs to maybe splitting carries. It looks like Darryl Henderson's got some friends now in the backfield, with Sony Michelle coming over. So pat this news broke this more not shocking. I think all of us were kind of sitting there waiting for eventually the Rams to add something. Now, I'm kind of glad they didn't just add somebody who's a you know, just some veteran off the waiver wire that nobody wanted. They added a piece that was on a roster and a trade with the Patriots, bringing in Michelle, who looked pretty good in camp, as we were talking about before the show. So the Patriots had an excess of running backs. It's a good deal for the pat side. From the ramside, certainly a good deal bringing in a guy who's been in the league a few years, but not so many years that he's going to be useless. Is the Sony Michelle presence now, in your opinion, something that anybody who has Darryl Henderson or likes Darrell Henderson has to be at least a little bit more conscious of it, maybe potentially adjust their rankings because Kenny take enough away from him to be frustrating, especially potentially around the goal line. Yeah, so I was maybe ranking Henderson pretty conservatively coming in. I think I had him at running back twenty d. I don't think I'm going to move him down based on the Michelle trade, but I just kind of think that the Rams were terrified after Henderson got this thumb injury, after they basically kept him in bubble wrap for most of the like preseason, and he still gets this injury that had to scare them. I don't think they wanted to play, you know, Xavier Jones as their number one. Jake Funk a guy who's probably just a special teamer. I mean, he's really good at that, but I don't think I think he was like the Ryan Nall guy for Nall with the Bears last year, Like the Bears did anything in their power not to play that guy, and I think that would have been the same with Fuck. So now they've at least got more bodies in the backfield. I don't even know if Sony Michelle threatens Jones that much. I guess he's not the clear number two guy, but it's possible Jones could still factor in this offense. I think the guy that this trade really affects the most is Romandre Stevenson. I mean, we have to get excited about this guy now. Like the Patriots had a crowded backfield before, it was hard to see how Stevenson was going to fit in. But now this guy who scored four touchdowns in two preseason games. Might just get a shot to be their goal line guy and change a pace back and big dude, nimble pass catching ability. Like, if we're excited about Nagy Harris, can't we get at least a little excited about Romandre Stevenson, who can be like a dollar store Nagy Harris. Nah, the dollar store Nagy Harris. I like that very much, Yates. What are your thoughts on both ends of this of this deal? Yeah, I've got a lot of them. So with Darryl Henderson, this does not move him at all in my rankings. I mean, Sony Michelle, you look at the Patriots backfield. It had Damian Harris at the top. Romandre Stevenson was playing his way into a role. Seven point seven yards per carry in the preseason so far, four rushing touchdowns. Like, you've got to give this guy a roster spot. And then you've still got James White on this roster who can fill that veteran pass catching role. And then J. J. Taylor also has shown a lot here in the preseason. You're not going to carry five running backs into the NFL season, so who's the odd man out? It's a guy who hasn't been doing a ton over the past couple of years. It's Sony Michelle. So Sony Michelle was most likely going to be a cut candidate. Anyway, the r send away, you know, a fifth and sixth round pick, which will eventually turn into a fourth round pick if they do get the comp pick for John Johnson leaving in free agency next year. So they sent away a fourth round pick, and people are pointing to that and saying, well, this, you know, they send away a fourth round pick. This means that he's going to be involved in that he could potentially Adam Schefter's coming out this morning saying that he could be the lead back in this offense. And I just want to say, like, should we should not be looking at the Los Angeles Rams and their draft pick value to indicate their roles and what they are going to do. This is a team that spent a second round pick on two two at well, who could have been there in the fifth round pick a role player for them. They send away first round picks. They do not care about the draft picks at all. So sending away this draft capital, which we view as like, okay, that's significant. That means that they're going to use him. It really doesn't mean anything for me because it's the Los Angeles Rams. And additionally, Sony Michelle arthritis in his knee, Like, this is not a guy that you're going to give two hundred plus carries too on this season. Is he going to fill a He's a veteran presence on this backfield because if something happens to Daryl Henderson, now you have Xavier Jones who hasn't seen a snap in the NFL, and Jake funk is your only other two options. You needed another body in here, and they viewed Sony Michelle as a positive guy that can step in if needed and carry the load, at least to the point if Henderson goes down right, break glass in case of emergency. So I think that Sony Michelle is going to see five six carries per game. Darryl Henderson is not going to be a bell cow. He wasn't even going to be a bell cow even with the cam Akers injury even before this. But if you give him twelve to fifteen carries per game in this offense that I project to be a top five scoring offense, and you have him around the goal line, which he's actually really good at then he can absolutely be a top fifteen backs. So Henderson RB fifteen and my rankings before this trade RB fifteen after he didn't move at all. All right, I've got him lower bum a little bit more concerned than Yates is just because I think the seventeen game season a little bit more management going on there, especially in the early going. So I still have some guys like Mike Davis ahead of him, some other guys that are on that fringe of the RB two conversation. But it's a good conversation to have that as for sure. And we'll see There'll be a lot more shoes to drop in this next a few days, so make sure you tune into us your fantasy pros so we can break it all down for you. All right, let's start with Pat's rankings. The ECR is established, but Pat's got some thoughts and some feels, as all the kids like to say, he's got all the feels about certain guys. So let's talk about the guys that you are higher on Pat than the ECR. And let's start at your two running backs. Who are the running backs that you are higher on than the ECR. So I think I've got Miles Sanders a little bit higher. I believe he's my running back seventeen and Tray Sermon, who I've got in the early twenties, maybe running back twenty three. I think I've got Sermon ahead of Javante Williams, which is probably puts me in a very slim minority of rankers on Fantasy pros. So Sanders, it's just that I think people were scared initially of the threat that the Eagles were bringing in all these backs in the off season. They drafted Kenny Gainwell, they signed Carrie on Johnson, they brought back Jordan Howard. But we've kind of now seen these guys fall by the wayside. I mean, Gainwell is playing like with the third stringers late in preseason games. Doesn't look like he's an imminent threat to sanders role. Carrie on Johnson gone now. So I really do think Sanders is pretty much the clear guy here. Yeah, the other guys will get some run, but but Sanders is the main guy. And sanders production and efficiency really kind of jumped up after Jalen Hurts took over for what was, you know, just a moribund Eagles offense. Last year, and you know, the Eagles had all sorts of offensive line issues. Their line is back and healthy and could potentially be a top five old line. They've got this running quarterback who you know, with the read options stuff and the RPO stuff is going to widen running lanes for Sanders, as we kind of saw last year. And although the reports out of camp are that he's been a little sloppy with his pass catching skills, I think he does that have that in his bag of tricks too. So I'm above consensus on him. I would put him into that Chris Carson David Montgomery category. And I think I've actually got Sanders above Carson because I think he's younger, he's got more juice, and you know, I think he's kind of being undervalued coming into drafts all right now. When it comes to Trey Sermon, Pat, I mean, that's a young guy with a lot of juice that I think a lot of us are excited about. I too, have him higher than most of my rankings. So what is it that you are excited about? Because I know we're all excited about that Shanahan offense, but mostart is still there and there's still some other guys around, So do you think Sermon can kind of break out from that group sooner than later? Yeah, Joe, So we you mentioned the Shanahan offense. So I'm going to go back and include Mike anahan is in this because we've seen that Shanahan zone system turns some guys who were basically jobbers into just phenoms, right, Tatum Bell, Ruben Drones, Al, Travis Henry going over and over right, So like these these just uh, you know, run of the mill names have had big seasons in the Shanahan system. But when you put a special back into the Shanahan system, Clinton portis Terrell Davis like league winning magic there. And if it turns out that Sermon is one of these dudes, and I mean, boy last year in the college football playoffs he was terrific. I mean he ripped apart a really good Northwestern defense last year. And this guy has like the one cuts ability that just fits the Shanahan system so well. And if it turns out that he is one of those magic guys, like you know, for a mid round pick, you're talking gold here, and you know, at worst, I think you're getting a guy who's going to be part of that committee and have some like weekly flex type value and you're paying like a flex type price. But the upside here is well worth playing for. I like the pot odds well, I would have to agree, Yeah, I would absolutely have to agree with you, pat on that it's a guy you could draft as a flex that you could possibly get a lot more of Yates. Do you see that same thing when you look at Sermon? Yeah. Absolutely. That's the big point that I was going to double back on with what Pat said, was that where Tracerman is going in drafts right now, there's a very little downside, right if it doesn't pan out the way that we think it could, if he doesn't get the majority of the careys here, if we do see Raheem Mostert be that guy to start the season, or whatever the case may be, he's still going to have enough work in a very very good offense to provide you at least flex value. Right you're drafting him as an RB three right now, you don't have to rely on him as a cornerstone of your fantasy football roster. But if he does take that step forward and does become the guy who is the predominant ball carrier, in this backfield, and that you have Raheem Moster as a change of pace option, then you've got a potential league winner that you got in the mid rounds. So there is very little downside two Trey Sermon. As the offseason has progressed, I've been just slowly moving him up and up my rankings, and I think that highlighting him and having him above ECR is definitely something that Pat is worthy of doing. All right, we're gonna move on to some of the wide receiver names that Pat is highlighted, but before we do, I want to tell everybody about Underdog Fantasy. We got to talk about it because Underdog Fantasy is the best and easiest place to play fantasy football for big cash prizes. On Underdog Fantasy, you just draft. There's no need to worry about waivers, lineups, trades, injuries, none of that right Underdog handles at all for you. Go to Underdog Fantasy dot Com or download the app today, draft a season long bestball team and that's it. No in season management. They're going to give you twenty five dollars when you sign up, so take a free shot at a million dollar grand prize in their fantasy football tournament. That's right, you get twenty five dollars in bonus cash on Underdog Fantasy if he used the promo code Fantasy Pros. You're welcome when you make your first deposit. I love Underdog. I've got a team there that I drafted very early that I got a lot of good packer value, which will make the Milwaukee native very happy here, Pat Fitzmorris, because man I got Davante Adams in the third round, Jones and the fourth, and Aaron Rodgers I think in the eighth or ninth or something like that, because everybody was so afraid. That's right. This is what you do. You take advantage of moments. In your moment right now is to take advantage of Underdog Fantasy. Go to underdog Fantasy dot com, join a league, draft a team. That's it. You're good for the whole season. Remember that's Underdog Fantasy dot Com. You can get it at the app store, Google play Store and sign up using that promo code Fantasy Pros to get twenty five bucks in bonus cash today. All right, Pat, there's three wide receivers you've got that you're higher on than ECR. Give me the names and give me the reasons why, all right, Jerry, Judy, Leviscus Channault, and Rondelle Moore. And I'll start with Judy. I mean, it's just sort of we've seen on tape from him. I think he's right now still like probably one of the better route runners in the game and one of the better after the catch guys after the game. Like he is just exceptional in both of those areas. And I guess the one point where the one aspect of his game where he fell down was the actual catching of the football last year. But we've seen Davante Adams struggle with that his first couple of years, to the point where people, you know, on Twitter, it's a trash DeVante is being terrible. I'm not too worried about drops as a you know, an indicator of future success, the same reason I've got Deonte Johnson ranked highly this year, not at all worried about that. I think the other reason people might be a little more reserved about Judy is the target competition and the quarterback situation. With the target competition, I'm thinking that, you know, maybe court And Sutton is not ready to be Courtland Sutton. Again, we've kind of heard that from camp that he just does not go up and win those balls in the air like he used to, Like maybe the knee is still not quite there. We've seen him kind of running some tentative routes in little clips from camp, Like, I think Judy is going to be the number one guy here, And as far as the quarterbacking, I mean, I think that's actually a reason to be excited about him. Judy, according to PFF, I believe he led the league in uncatchable targets. Targets just ruled like no chance for the wide receiver by a mile last year, Like it was some ridiculously high number. So like he's bound to get some regression on that. Either Drew Lock gets better and we've seen some signs of that in the preseason, or they're gonna put Teddy in there, and I think Teddy can you know we saw Teddy's support DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson pretty nicely last year and Michael Thomas two years ago. Let's not forget when he stepped in there, and he was still pretty good when Breeze was out. So who's number two on that wide receivers? Chanault now does Chennault for you, Pat get a little bit of a bump here with Trevis Etia not around. Yeah, he does for sure, Joe. I mean, we've got the two vertical receivers there with DJ Shark and Marvin Jones, and you know the rookie quarterback is going to want a reliable short area receiver, and I think that's clearly Chant now, especially with ETN out. Like, I don't think the ETN loss necessarily means that, you know, the Jaguars are just out of luck as far as a reliable pass ketcher. We saw James Robinson do enough of it last year. You know, he doesn't have the same juice in the passing game that ETN has. But I think they're gonna find ways now for Chanal to be sort of that Swiss army knife. And this is a big dude. I mean, Chanult reminds me of like young an Kuon Bolden before Bolden was you know, running an offensive lineman type forty time in his later years, like when Bolden was younger and had a little bit of burst and then just being one of the harder guys to tackle in the game. I think Channel can be that because, like man, if you go back and watch Chenault's sophomore year at the University of Colorado, Like you couldn't help but get excited about one tape. Yeah, absolutely, absolutely, So I want to see a little more of that this year, and I think we're going to And then the third guys, Rondel Moore, who's getting a lot of buzz here on this show too. So why is it getting buzz in your rankings? Yeah, you want to talk about exciting college tape, go back to twenty eighteen at Purdue and Rondel Moore. I mean, Purdue has not been appointment viewing on a college football Saturday since Drew Brees was running Joe Tiller's offense, like I remember it well and more like, you know, single handedly beat Ohio State that year eighteen touchdowns, I think like eighteen hundred combined yards from scrimmage. He was just a monster. And the naysayers are going to say that it's like kind of a gimmicky usage for him that he's run on all these like little flare outs and bubble screens and then you know occasional handoffs Jeff sweeps, Okay, yeah, Cliff Kingsberry is the I mean, yeah, everyone knocks Cliff for this horizontal passing game that he's running. Like they were running those routes to Larry Fitzgerald last year. Now they're getting them to Rondel Moore, who might literally be twice as fast as Larry Fitzgerald. So like, I think we're going to see a lot more receptions, whatever the over under number is on Rondel Moore, receptions, Like I want the over, and like I'm totally sold that it's going to go way over. Seventy seventy five catches would not surprise me at all. And man, like, this guy's not some frail little dude. This guy squats like six hundred pounds or something ridiculous. Like this guy is mighty mouse, and I'm really excited about him. I've been getting him like in more than half of my drafts. I've been annoyed by Ian Harditts, who I've found myself in a lot of drafts with lately and likes Rondale even more than I do and keep stealing him from me. So definitely a guy to be targeting in like the thirteen fourteenth round of your draft. Yeah, I gotta tell you, I feel very warm and fuzzy when you'd say nice things about Jerry Judy, who I continuously just keep pounding the table for. And you know, Yates, you were kind of lightening up there what he was talking about some of the college tape of Lavisco Sheenault and Rondel Moore. Is this a year where these guys are going to outperform their ADP in your opinion or you know, even the ECR as we're talking about here. Yeah. So one of the interesting things with Lavisko Chanlt going into the year was you Urban Meyer comes in as head coach and you say, all right, well, Lavisco Chanult's kind of Leavisco Chanult kind of fits this role that he's always had in his offenses with Paris Campbell at Ohio State, the way with Cadarius Tony that he had at Florida. Like these these players that are able to create yards after the catch in the horizontal aspect of the game. They work underneath and then they pick up yards after the catch and it's speed. So then you look Atscoult and you're like, perfect, he can fit that role because he not only has speed at his size, but then he also has the size to go with it. That he can and fantastic contact balance two and getting yards after contact. He's like a running back out there in the open field. So you look at that and you got all right, Leviscohannult perfect. He fills that role. And then they go after Kadarius Tony in the first round of the NFL Draft. They don't get him, so then they draft Travis Eytn and it's like, Okay, well, ETN is probably going to fill that role. So I was lower on Leviisco Chanult because I had all those that role being dedicated to Travis Eytn. Well, now et N's out of the picture and Leavisco Chanult comes flying up my rankings. I've now got him at wide receiver forty one on the year because he is going to fill a very, very valuable role for this offense. And you talk about it pat with DJ charts stretching the field with his four or three speed or whatever he's got. Marvin Jones is a deep field threat and contested catchability, and then you've got an opening here underneath with no tight end right, James O'Shaughnessy is like they're they're tight end one on this offense. Spoiler alert, He's not going to do much this year, so you've got to have either James Robinson catching a ton of passes out of the backfield or Laviskoschnell is going to get fed. And so I think Lavis Koshell definitely, as a guy who has fantastic college stape, who has now has that role locked up to him and guaranteed to him, is absolutely going to be a value in fantasy football drafts this year. It's just a matter of staying healthy for him, which is also the same thing with Rondale Moore. You know, you talk about Rondale Moore and the electric season that he had in twenty eighteen, and as soon as you say Rondel Moore, the immediate thought is Ohio State twenty eighteen. Like that game just comes immediately to mind because he absolutely dominated and then we really didn't see him much on the field over the next couple of seasons here. So he gets the draft capitol here in Arizona. I think he's going to fill a very valuable rule you talk about, he's going to get force fed targets, So I think he has a little bit more value in PPR leagues. But it's kind of the same thing with Deebo Samuel in San Francisco last year, where it's like the a dot was two point two yards for Samuel. So far through the preseason, it's kind of been around the same, maybe even less for Rondale Moore. So he needs to be incredibly, incredibly efficient with his yards after the catch in order to be able to sustain fantasy value to the point where he's in the flex conversation weekend a week out. If there ever was a player to do that, though it is Rondel Moore. I just have questions about the consistency. So, Pat, one of the questions I was going to ask you is where exactly do you have him in your rankings. Is he a guy that you're like drafting two rounds ahead to be able to get him as a flex on your roster, or is he someone that's still in like the fifties the sixties, a guy that you're taking stashing on your bench and hopes that he can be something you know and grow into a role. I've got him at forty six right now in half point PPR, so right in the like, I think he's just behind DJ Shark. I've got him ahead of Elijah More like, I think he's the better rookie Moore wide receiver to have so at forty six, like, I'm pretty confident that I'm going to have him ranked ahead of most people and be pretty far in the leading edge. So he is a guy like I'll jump people to maybe you know, get him in the twelfth thirteenth. Like ideally he's like my fifth or sixth receiver where he doesn't have to necessarily be a guy I lean on every week, but a guy who if he pops there, he is for me as my third receiver, flex guy potentially very good, very good. And with Channault, you said where do you have him right now? Yates, you said forty three? You haventy one. Okay, I've got him at forty three, So we're pretty close there as well. So all of us have made the adjustments and shame on us we're not talking about that earlier when we talked about Robinson because that's kind of the ruple effect too. So glad we hit it here before we get to the quarterback and the tight end that we need to discuss that Pat's higher on. I want to tell you about pristine auction football is around the corner that means all kinds of cool stuff can be yours and press all your friends and families, your draft mates. Go to Christine Auction dot com and check out the auction for all kinds of stuff. 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All right, Pat, let us switch gears here to your quarterback and tight end that you are higher on. And I gotta tell everybody right now. When I saw the name, I'm super excited for who you're going to talk about a quarterback because I think it's overdue. Yeah, it's Trevor Lawrence. So I've got him as my quarterback, twelve ahead of guys like Tom Brady, which is gonna away a lot of people, but we'll talk more about that a little later. And Joe Burrow, which might annoy Yates because I know Yate's the big Joe Burrow guy. Basically with Lawrence, I mean, we've just talked about the Jaguars offense, so I won't, you know, trample over that ground again. But like, this guy stepped in as this highly touted high school star instantly you know he was the real deal from day one at Clemson and he did everything everyone ever hoped of him. I really think he is the best quarterback prospect to come out of college since Andrew Lucke. And like, maybe the buzz about him is not what it would be because there's so much excitement right now about Trey Lance and Justin Fields and deservedly so, like, this is a really exciting year for rookie quarterback. So but just because those guys are stepping into spots where maybe they're not assured the starting gig right away, they're getting a little more attention than Trevor Lawrence, you know, who's who's going to start. No matter what urban Meyer says about this being a competition with Gardner, Minshew, Yeah, that's an eye roll for sure. So it's gonna be Lawrence. And what I like, you know, not only do I think he's going to be a credible NFL passer right away, you know, and have some pretty exciting pass catchers at his disposal with the two vertical threats and Charkin and Martin Jones and then Chanlt. But like, this guy runs, and he runs aggressively, and he's a big dude, and he's not afraid to take a hit. Maybe he should be a little more afraid to take hits in preseason games. I didn't like seeing him get knocked around against the Saints the other night. But this guy's gonna add like four to six rushing touchdowns. He's gonna add two hundred to three hundred and fifty rushing yards, Like he's going to add some value there and you need that. Like that's gonna like it's hard for a guy to be a legitimate quarterback one now in fantasy if he does not add rushing value. You know we're going to see that with Matthew Stafford. He's in a great situation this year, but like he's not going to get that rushing boost, so he probably has like quarterback ten as a ceiling. I don't think Lawrence even has that as a limiting thing. I could see him finishing as high as QB seven, QB eight as a rookie, and he's a guy you can typically get. Quarterback fifteen in your draft is sort of an afterthought. Yeah, I've been talking that we're not hyping him enough, Like all of our attention has gone to those other guys, and rightfully so they deserve it, but we're like taking him for granted. And what you're mentioning two pat is that that concept of him, you know, rushing, that we forget about how good he was at college doing that, but also the necessity that offensive line is not good. He's gonna get flushed from that pocket quite a bit. So that's going to force him entering the football maybe a little bit more. And your tight end that you're higher on than everybody else, who is that? Pat Yeah, so this is I'm exactly one spot higher on the sky than everyone else. It's George Kittle, who I've actually got ahead of Darren Waller, which I know is kind of a controversial thing these days, but I guess it's like I see both of these guys as two three turn type of guys, and Waller's typically going now and like the mid second round and Kittle maybe early third. Like I see almost a half a round to a full round difference between the two. And I'm not sure why. Waller had one hundred and forty five targets last year, which I think was tied for the fifth highest target total for any tight end in the last decade, so I think he's kind of at the zenith of his target capacity right now. Kittle has very steadily over the last three years average like eight targets a game versus Waller's nine last year, so he's right there. The big difference being Waller was at like eight point two yards per target or something last year. Kittle's three year average on yards per target is ten. I mean, this guy is just so efficient, such a monster, and it's mainly because the two hardest guys to tackle in the NFL are Derrick Henry and George Kittle. Like this guy's an absolute beast. I think people are a little scared that while San Francisco has better wide receivers, so they're going to somehow put a dent in Kittle's target chair, even though in the games where he played with Ayuk and Debo, where they were all healthy last year, he averaged basically the same as he always does it eight point three targets a game. People are also kind of assuming maybe that Rugs and Brian Edwards don't take a step up for the Raiders that got John Brown there too. And I think people also see Derek Car's more of a reliable ball delivery system. Don't feel bad, I still do that all these years later. Every now and then, I'll give you a San Diego Charger every year, every now and then I'll give you the wrong car. So it happens all of us. Don't worry. Yeah, So, and like I know, Yates is going to reject the idea that somehow the quarterbacking is better quick to feed Waller than it is for Kittle. You know, when we're gonna get Trey Lance eventually throwing to Kittle. So to me, like they're right, they're neck and neck. I actually like Kittle a little more. I mean in overall rankings, I've got them side by side. But whereas I think Waller is being a little overdrafted, I think Kittle's being a little underdrafted. All right, Yates, when it comes to Waller and Kittle, this is fun because you know, yesterday we had Ericson on the show talking about Waller. Today we have pat On talking about Kittle. And this is this is why I love the guests we bring in, because they make such good arguments. I'm curious, where do you land on that argument between those two guys. You're not gonna get a huge difference here or like a huge fight for me, because I've got these guys separated by two fantasy points in my projections. That seems like I'm fine. I know, right, I'm fine with either one. I think an argument going in George Kittle's direction has been the just the drops from the receiver options here in San Francisco. You know, Brandon and you struggling with drop STEVEO Samuel struggling with here throughout the preseason. So once Trey Lance does take over, we're even Jimmy Garoppolo. It's like, I want to go to a guy who I know is going to catch the football. And because of Kyle Shanahan's scheme, George Kittle is always freaking open, and I don't understand how NFL defenses are, like, maybe we should double team this guys that way. He's not always open, but he seemingly always is. So yeah, I think the only thing standing in George Kittle's way of finishing at the end of the season above Darren Waller is injury. Right, That's the only thing that is standing I think in George Kittle's way because I do think that he's going to have a guaranteed volume in this offense. I don't think Brandon and a Yuk. I'm a little bit lower on Brandon Iyuke and Deebo Samuel because I do think that so many of the target the target share is still going George Kittle's way. He's in the number one option in this offense. So I completely agree with Pat. The only thing that I would just push back on a little bit there is to say, like the injury risk that's the only thing here. But Darren Waller also has missed some time earlier on this offseason with an injury as well. He's back of practice now, but Kittle has a little bit more of a lengthy injury history with that. Yeah, good, now, one on that. All right, let's move on here. But before we do, I want to tell everybody about another one of our sponsors, and that of course, is fan Tracks. Fan Tracks is the most customizable fantasy platform in the industry, offering the greatest fantasy experience if your dynasty keeper, redraft and bestball leagues. Fan Tracks Free NFL Fantasy Football League Manager is the most customizable, easy to use, and feature rich platform in the industry. If you're coming for another service, fan Tracks can import any of your current leagues and customize them if needed. 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Encourage your league mates to enter as well. Simply go to fantracks dot com slash Fantasy pros to sign up today. And remember at Josh Allen Jersey fantracks gaveaway you remember that in July, Well, guess what that was won by a listener of our Fantasy Pros podcast here, So make sure that you go and enter because you might win a little something extra as well. Go to fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros to sign up today Fantracks, the home of fantasy sports. All right, let's move on here to some of the guys. Now, Pat, that you are lower on the ECR and Pat, let's start with the running backs that you are a little lower on than everybody else. So let's look at the downside of the two running backs you selected, Yeah, Mike Davis and David David Montgomery Montgomery, I think we can cover pretty quickly. I like him. I don't think he's going to have the same sort of role obviously last year, regardless of whether Terrico it comes back healthy. They've got Damian Williams. Now, there's gonna be a downtick in volume for sure. They don't want to work Montgomery to death the way they did last year, and the Bears offensive line is still pretty terrible. I think the offense might have some growing pains if it's Justin Fields there. You know, I don't see Justin Fields as being a big checkdown guy once he gets in. So I'm just a little nervous about Montgomery. Don't have a big beef with where he's being drafted. But you know, since I'm a little lower, I'm not winding up with him. Really in any drafts, Mike Davis is more the guy I would be setting off, you know, warning flares about He is to me, just the kind of guy I never really want to draft a guy who is I think this is going to be his age twenty eighth season, a twenty eight year old old career backup being pushed up boards due to volume projection. And it's a projection. Sure, Like we don't, you know, have any faith in Quadrialison or Javian Hawkins or Cordarrel Patterson or whoever else the Falcons might bring into this backfield. But like, I'm not willing to just buy that. We can put Mike Davis down in Penn for two hundred to two hundred and fifty carries and he goes at a point in drafts like the fifth round where there are still good receivers like Tee Higgins and Deonte Johnson might be available there. It might be your last chance to get you upper echelon tight ends like Mark Andrews or t J. Hawkinson. It might be Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray or some other premium quarterback there. Like the fifth round is kind of an important pivot point in drafts, and I think Mike Davis is a really bad way to spend a fifth round pick. And Hawkins actually was just released last night. So one one less running back. I know, in the flurry of everything else going on, it's it's hard to catch everything sometimes. But that's one less guy now in that backfield. But look, I take it all back. Then Joe's Mike Davis. It's all Mike Davis. No. But but you're right. I mean, look, Mike Davis is another way these guys I don't trust as an RB two, as a flex I'm okay with um. Look, you know, I still see Montgomery as a safe kind of investment. I like where he's going. I feel safe about it. I know who he is, I know what he is. Um. You know, when it comes to Davis, though, in particular Yates, you know that there is one less guy to worry about on the depth chart. Do you feel like we're falling into a false sense of security when it comes to Davis. I've talked about how I think Davis is going to come out of the gates on fire. I think that he's going to be force fed volume, and then I have concerns about his durability as the season progresses. So I think that he's going to be a very, very valuable fantasy asset to start the year, and then maybe three or four weeks into the season, I might be willing to trade him. I might be willing to sell high on Mike Davis to be able to move up the board for maybe a guy who is underperforming throughout the first few weeks of the season, hasn't had some great matchups, whatever the case may be. Because I do have concerns about Mike Davis over the course of seventeen games, like Pat said, a twenty eight year old, like career backup, like he even last year when he did step in, you know, he was wearing down as the season progressed. So I think he's going to be force fed targets and force fed volume because where else is it going to go in this offense. But then I have concerns about what this offense is going to look like come week fourteen and so on. So yeah, I think Mike Davis it's just a matter of like now we look at the rest of the board, It's like, Okay, who do I put him behind? You know, like all these running backs were starting to starting to get pretty thin, starting to get pretty thin. So I think Mike Davis is still someone that I'm willing to draft as a high end RB three, you know, a guy that I can rely on at the beginning of the season then hopefully ship off. It's a default ranking almost you know where he just you're starting to just lose guys like there's just nothing after that. And well, and he is the guy. But Pat's right, just because he's the guy, doesn't mean he's going to be great. Though, to confuse the two or conflate the two, especially with your draft capital, when the guys you say you could draft instead and make a different kind of investment and maybe save another round and go, you know, take a tracer but or somebody like that potentially, or reach if you want. All right, let's talk about your wide receivers that you are a little lower on than the consensus. Here, Pat, and you've got three names, two of which are pretty well known veterans. Yeah, two veterans who have a lot of credibility and goodwill with fantasy managers, Keenan Allen and Adam Feeling, and then DJ Shark and with Chark, I think it's mostly just the fact that they brought in Marvin Jones, a guy with basically similar skill sets and a guy who's been like really efficient in that role. Just kind of a duplication of things. And when the process started of doing rankings back in January, I think I had Chark just because I'm excited about the talent, had him maybe in the early to mid thirties, and I think now I've got him down in like the mid forties, as I mentioned, like just ahead of Rondel Moore, like forty five or so. I just I think it's gonna be hard for him to really pop in this offense when he's got another vertical receiver to compete with Keenan Ellen. Like we've heard the talk about Mike Williams playing this X role now in this new offense for the Chargers, and how that's probably going to funnel him some extra targets. You know, Keenan's getting a little older. He's answered the durability questions, but he's becoming a little less efficient. We saw him average fewer than ten yards per per catch last year. We saw him average like six point seven yards per target, which frankly isn't very good. Like he is a still just an elite route runner. You know, when he was asked to compare himself to other route runners, what was the line, van go Picasso them boys. So that was one of the one of the better offseason quotes, and I agree he's terrific at that, but he is a short area guy. In order for him to really make his bones this year in fantasy, he is going to have to catch a lot of balls. A lot of balls means a greater chance for you know, physical punishment and maybe injury in his older age. So you know, I still have him at like wide receiver eleven or twelve or something like that. I'm not totally dissing him, but like I think there's a little more risk than people are maybe factored into the ranking. And then Adam feeling, Okay, we know he's going to regress from the fourteen touchdowns, Like that's pretty obvious. I think people are still drawn to the fact that it's a skinny usage tree in the passing game in Minnesota with Jefferson feeling maybe IRF Smith and that's about it. No legitimate third receiver, but it's kind of been that way anyway, And we saw feeling average, like nine targets a game in two thousand, seventeen eighteen. Over the last two years, that number has dipped to six point three targets a game on average, And like, I think targets are earned, Like there's something too that, And that's kind of an alarming drop in targets for a guy whose situation really hasn't changed that much. I mean, the Justin Jefferson arrivals certainly maybe diminished his role a little bit, but still a two receiver system, same quarterback, and we're seeing this big drop in targets. To me, that's kind of a scary sign. I've got him at like wide receiver twenty six, twenty five. Again, I don't think that's too disrespectful, but I know a lot of people have him more like wide receiver nineteen, wide receiver twenty. Yeah. Look, I think it's so dangerous here, Pat, and you're kind of highlighting is is these guys have been stable in the past. These guys have been rocks and cornerstones of a lot of good fantasy teams. And another year older and some of those numbers starting to go into a different direction. There's cause for concern and that's what makes him so dangerous. Yeates, do you see any danger in Theeland and Adams specifically Adam Feeland as you know, continue to look at the twenty twenty one board. Yeah, so I've got Keenan Allen at twelve I think right in that same range as Pat. I acknowledge that you know for him, Yeah, nine point nine yards per reception last year off the top of my head, like he has to be that yards per reception has to tick up for him to finish above some of these other guys like a Ceedee Lamb, Terry mclaur and Allen Robinson in that range. I think Keenan Allen gets a bump up in full PPR formats. Obviously with just how many targets he's going to see. We know that those he's still going to be a very very safe option for you. But I don't think that the upside is there with Adam Theland. You are betting on efficiency. Now, the offense hasn't changed, right, You've got some guys that are battling for the wide receiver three spot. But you know, I don't think that Theland is going to suddenly lose out his wide receiver one or wide receiver two job. You know he's justin. Jefferson is going to take over, of course, but Dealing is still going to be involved, and he has the chemistry with Kirk Cousins. It's just a matter of are you willing to bet on that efficiency where he could finish as a top twelve wide receiver. I don't have him ranked there, so yeah, I think. And then DJ Chark, I've been moving him down, down and down and down as the off season progresses. I don't have him as low as Pat, But yeah, I think with DJ Chark, it's just it's a concern the state of the offense where it's trending. I just have concerns about it. All right, Pat, you tease the Tom Brady thing earlier, So give us the Tom Brady evaluation, and again why he can't be great, because it seems like that's all we do every year of why this is the end of Tom Brady, and every year we come back, you're going, no, no, it's gonna be this year. But it's got to be one of these years somebody's gonna be right. And then give me your tight end. Also that you are lower on than the consensus. While you're at it. That's it, Joe. I'm gonna be public enemy number one here, probably with you two since you're a Pats fan. But like you mentioned it, one of these years, like it's the it's the actuarial tables here, like he is going to tumble over the age cliff one of these years. And he's forty four. Now, okay, he turned forty four earlier this month. And we say, oh, but he's Tom Brady. He's one of the greatest. He's not, you know, like one of these other guys. I mean, the list of guys who have started a game in the NFL at this age, I think it begins and ends with Vinny Testaverdi. Now, like he's the only one who started a game this old No, Like we say, yes, but Tom Brady is no Vinny Testaverdie. This guy's a walk in Hall of Famer, maybe the best of all time. Yes, agreed, But we have seen some other great quarterbacks slam into the wall at one hundred miles an hour at younger ages. We saw Peyton Manning have a great season in two thousand and fourteen. In two thousand and fifteen, I mean the Denver Broncos, like carried him, dragged him over the finish line to a championship. I mean he was completely out of gas, and we saw it in twenty fifteen. He was thirty nine in that year where he tumbled over the age. Cliff Brett Farve almost gets the Vikings to the Super Bowl in two thousand and nine at age forty played great that year. The next year he was an absolute train wreck. Eleven touchdowns, nineteen interceptions. He was forty one. Tom Brady is forty four. Like, I know, we love the pass catchers. I know Brady played really well last year, although he should had like four or five interceptions in the NFC Championship game. I'm not going to say anything more about that. Oh, you're not wrong. I just think we should be really careful here and plus like without any running ability, Like the ceiling is pretty capped here. Like I think that the ceiling is kind of capped at where he's being drafted, like QB nine, QB ten, but I've got him a little lower QB fourteen. I just think there's risk here that people are No, you're not wrong, amazingly blind to for a forty four year old quarterback. It's it's just the more you keep looking for it and everyone keeps getting knocked the other way, they keep spinning around, and eventually they just get tired of getting punched in the face. I feel like by Tom Brady and and he lives to do this, like this is literally his thing. Now, who's your tight end that you also have in a different spot. Yeah, I can go fast on this, Robert Tonyan, you know, just to show I can dis unpackers too. As a packer fan, eighty eight percent catch rate last year, about twenty percent of his catches went for touchdown. It just screams regression. Plus the packers that brought Randall cobback, they've drafted Amari Rodgers, so there's a little more competition for those those short area receptions. I just think regression is imminent. I don't think you know a lot of people have Tonyon at the top of that drop off point at tight end. After you know, we've got the good six that everyone wants going down to Pitts, Andrews and Hawkinson, it's like four or five six, Then like Logan Thomas is kind of the bridge guy at tight end seven, then it's kind of messy. I think a lot of people have to at like tight end eight nine ten. I think he should be more in the tight end fourteen fifteen range, all right, So obviously Pat is very equal opportunity there. He took a shot on his own guy, his own Packers guy, Robert Townian. That's a player, yates that you like a lot as a free tight end, granted, but take me through your thoughts on Robert Tonian and take me through your thoughts on Tom Brady as well. Yeah, with Tony in the argument is touchdown rate, right, it was a ridiculous touchdown rate for him, a very high catch rate as well, So you are betting on that happening with Robert Tonyan. But also I like where he's going in drafts, where I think that that is worth taking the shot on because he still has Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. Right, If it was Jordan Love, I would be completely out on Robert Tonyan. But because it is Aaron Rodgers, one of the if not the greatest passer in NFL history, then I will say that I Robert Toney was the tight end one at one point last year, guys, So I feel like he can absolutely return value on where he's being going. So I'll push back on that one a little bit. I've got Tony into little bit higher with tom Brady. I definitely get the arguments. I mean that is at some point it has to fall off, right at some point, and so do we get ahead of it or do we just ride this wave and just say I'm gonna I'll ride this wave straight to hell and I will just continue to plug tom Brady into my starting lineup until it falls off. I mean, you look at all the receiving weapons he's got, and it's hard not to continue to buy into tom Brady. You've got a bet on ridiculous touchdown, ridiculous touchdowns, ridiculous you know, passing volume because he brings nothing with his legs. Of course, so maybe where he's going is a little bit too high in draft, but I can't move him outside my top twelve, top thirteen quarterbacks just because of the receiving weapons that he's got. All he has to do is get rid of the ball, get it into their hands, and we know that you can do that really well, and they'll create for him. I was gonna say, that's that's pretty much vintage Tom Brady looking for the open man. Hitting him in stride and then just letting them do the rest. But look, Pat, you're you're not wrong. I mean, one of these years it's got to happen. It's got to be the case. But you know what, up until then, we'll just have to keep watching. And you're right, the ceiling is certainly capped, I think at this point for breaking too. So now more than ever, we have to realize the downside. Pat, there's no downside to you ever. As a guest, you're one of my favorite people to read and to listen to you talk about football, and it's been so fun to actually do a show with you, not once but twice in seven days time. So I just want to thank you again for your time. You can follow Pat on Twitter at fits underscore f and again check him out as the host of the fits on Fantasy podcast and also the work he does with Footballgirl dot com. Anything else you want to plug here, Pat, before we let you go for the day. Yeah, just check out the fits on Fantasy Pod. Yeah, you can just check out the fits on Fantasy Pod once a week, usually comes out Monday morning or Tuesday morning. And that's about it. I'm afraid I'm not going to be on the Tom Brady Trained to hell with you guys, but I'll be at the station wavings. You guys leave the leave and uh, you know, hopefully have a nice journey there. It's great, too great to talk about you guys. Happy drafting absolutely, and happy drafting to everybody else out there too. If you want to get the best tools for your draft, go to fantasypros dot com. Slash offers an upgrade on just ten bucks, a ten dollar deposit to any of our partner sites. That's what you can do. And when you do that at fantasypros dot com, Slash offers you can claim six three months of our Hall of Fame package. That's a sixty five dollar value. What that does it allows you to go all the way up as a big time subscriber Fantasy Pros. Get the cheat sheet creator, get the draft assistant with Sank, all the stuff you need for the draft, and then in season you'll have access to other pods stuff that's behind some of the paywalls that we do here, including the IDP Show, which we just kicked off. The first one's free. After that, you got to come join us where the cool kids are up at the Hall of Fame package, right, you gotta get over there, and of course, while you're at it, go to Fantasypros dot com slash contest. That way you can get involved in that Clyde Edwards a Layer autographed helmet that is a fantastic piece of swag that is going to impress everybody. And if you have see h on your fantasy team, why not take a shot. Don't forget while you're at it, subscribe to our YouTube channel. That way you can actually get that three x entry. Also want to thank the sponsors of today's show, as always, Fantracks the Homo Fantasy Sports. Go to fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros sign up today and you might be going to an NFL regular season game with six grand in your pocket. Also, you can sign up for Underdog. Get twenty five bucks on us at Underdog Fantasy with the promo code Fantasy Pros. Play some bestball, have some fun, fun fantasy football without setting lineups. That's what Underdog is about. And of course Pristine Auction, who's giving us that amazing Clyde Edwards a Layer helmet. Go check out all the cool stuff at Pristine auction. That's pri sti neauction dot com. And that of course a five dollar credit when you use the promo code Fantasy Pros. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for Pat Fitzmorris and Kyle Yates. I'm JOEYP. We will see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. Follow us on Twitter and Instagram Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 1: Let's learn from last year's number one rancor. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. It is me, Joey b Joe Pisapia, that of course is Kyle Yates and it's you and we got a lot of football to do today. We have got a great guest. We're talking about some ECR rankings and there's nobody better to talk about it with than the reigning, defending undisputed champion of ranking. And he'll be on it just a second. But we have a lot of football news to break down as well. We have a running back out for the year and running back changing some addresses. We're gonna get to all of that end a little game, a little fantasy odd man out, So everybody likes a fun game Gates. What's your board game of choice? You got a board game that's your go to that you love? Board game of choice? I'm a clue guy. I like Clue. It's fun. Oh man, board games. We haven't gotten to the stage with my son where like we're playing board games regularly right Like he's still three, so it's not like we're we're playing those regularly. I'll go to one that has like some nostalgia for me, and that is playing Strtigo. I love my dad. We used to play that all the time when I was growing up, and so I absolutely love that game. That just whenever I sit down and play that, that's like, yeah, there's there's some nostalgia. I love Monopoly, but nobody will overplay it with me anymore for obvious reasons. But yeah, Strtigo is a good one. Speaking of strategy, there's nobody better here. You've seen him last week. He joined us for a little while on the fest and it's just not enough. We have to get more of our good friend Pat fitz Morris to join us again. He was the lead ranker last year on Fantasy Pros. You could check out his work at Footballgirl dot com. Also, he's the host of fits on Fantasy podcast. Pat. Welcome to the show, Champ. How are you know? I'm doing great. It's been less than a week since we spoke on the Fast, but I was counting down the hours until we could talk again, and I wasn't there with Yates. Yates was taking a break to smoke a cigar or something like that, so it's great to see him again and he's really making me feel nostalgic for Strtigo. I mean, what a great game. I know rich rebar Lord Reeves is a big fan of Statigo, and as sharp as he is, I don't think I would ever want to play him. So yeah, that was a classic for sure. It's all about having that fake area where it might be where the flag is to toop them into one area. It's the bait and switch. My kids love it. I've taught them how to play that game. It is a classic. And speaking of classic strategy, Pat has been gracious enough to give us some of his time. We're going to talk about players that he is higher and lower on in ECR compared to the rest of the consensus, and that is always an important thing to look at. We're also going to break down some of the latest news. Before we do, I just want to let everybody know once again they were given away free stuff here, So if you go to fantasypros dot com slash contest you can get involved in that. Clyde Edwards a layer free helmet giveaway. It's autographed, it's glorious. It's the inverted too. It's very sexy. When you go to Fantasypros dot Com slash Contest, you'll see the helmet and you're gonna automatically want to get involved in this and it's very simple to do so, just leave a great review of the show over on Apple Podcasts or cast box, screenshot it, subscribe to our YouTube channels, you get the three X entry, and then upload all that stuff to Fantasypros dot Com slash Contest and that autographed, inverted, really cool black and red chief's helmet can be yours again. You're welcome. We give away free stuff here. And speaking of basically free stuff, look, we're getting closer and closer to the end of draft season here and also the beginning of football season. I'm trying to help everybody out. So this is a public service announcement more than anything. Fantasy pros dot Com slash offers. All you gotta do is make a ten dollar deposit of one of our partner sites, right, so any of those partner sites, make a ten dollar deposit, play some more fantasy, and what you're gonna get is six three months of our Hall of Fame package that will take you all the way through the football season. That's a sixty five dollar value. You'll get the IDP show with that as well. If Bogman and I are gonna be hosting that every week. We just did the first one yesterday. That's gonna come out probably today, I believe, or tomorrow. 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In terms of moving up Robinson in these rankings, and also what's the impact and how do people have Etn now kind of move forward and look for something else that might be on the early waiver wire for them. Yeah, you know, this is a bummer. I was definitely excited for Travis Etn and what he could do in this Jacksonville Jaguars offense, particularly as a receiver. So I think with Etn, you know, he was placed on R before the deadline starts, where then you can place a player on IR and then they can come back earlier later on in the season. So he is like done for twenty twenty one. I mean, there's maybe a possibility, but I think he's done for all of twenty twenty one. So just if you drafted already dropped into the waiver wire, you're not going to want to stash him this entire time. So with Robinson, though obviously he benefits from this, he was a guy that I was down a little bit further down than consensus on, especially further down than ADP and with James Robinson, he moved up to RB nineteen for me. So he's a guy that I think you can get away with as a mid range RBT. You you know, he produced last year just insane numbers in a very very bad offense, but he was getting a ton of a ton of volume. I think the volume again will be there this year. But I just can't put him over guys like Ceh JK. Dobbins, you know, these other guys that have just insane upside, even Chris Carson. I just can't move him above them. So he's a fine midrange RB two. I think he slid in right after David Montgomery for me, So just kind of in that vein as how I'm viewing James Robinson for this year. All right, how about you, Pat? When you're talking about now the value of James Robinson going into the season, Look, it's refreshed, it's renewed now. So everybody who got early cheap shares of Robinson is going to benefit from this. But for those who haven't drafted yet, what's the approach when it comes to him? Yeah? So I think he finished what running back seven last year and a half point PPR. I'm not quite expecting that going to finish. We don't know quite how he's going to fit into the Urban Meyer offense. And you know, they've got Carlos Hide there and x buck Eye, so maybe he summer on too. But I've got him at running back fifteen now, just behind Clyde Edwards Hilaire and you know with some of the other guys he Eates mentioned. I've got him just ahead of Dobbin's Carson Montgomery. So I think that's kind of a tear those guys, and I'd be you know, I think we're just kind of splitting hairs with the guys from that group. But that's kind of where he belongs. He's certainly an attractive target now and like maybe the fourth round of well not even probably like the early third round of drafts. I think we might start seeing him go as early as the two three turn. So yeah, really a bummerbot et and I was, I was pretty heavily invested in him myself. But you know, hopefully he comes back good as new next year. All right, from splitting hairs to maybe splitting carries. It looks like Darryl Henderson's got some friends now in the backfield, with Sony Michelle coming over. So pat this news broke this more not shocking. I think all of us were kind of sitting there waiting for eventually the Rams to add something. Now, I'm kind of glad they didn't just add somebody who's a you know, just some veteran off the waiver wire that nobody wanted. They added a piece that was on a roster and a trade with the Patriots, bringing in Michelle, who looked pretty good in camp, as we were talking about before the show. So the Patriots had an excess of running backs. It's a good deal for the pat side. From the ramside, certainly a good deal bringing in a guy who's been in the league a few years, but not so many years that he's going to be useless. Is the Sony Michelle presence now, in your opinion, something that anybody who has Darryl Henderson or likes Darrell Henderson has to be at least a little bit more conscious of it, maybe potentially adjust their rankings because Kenny take enough away from him to be frustrating, especially potentially around the goal line. Yeah, so I was maybe ranking Henderson pretty conservatively coming in. I think I had him at running back twenty d. I don't think I'm going to move him down based on the Michelle trade, but I just kind of think that the Rams were terrified after Henderson got this thumb injury, after they basically kept him in bubble wrap for most of the like preseason, and he still gets this injury that had to scare them. I don't think they wanted to play, you know, Xavier Jones as their number one. Jake Funk a guy who's probably just a special teamer. I mean, he's really good at that, but I don't think I think he was like the Ryan Nall guy for Nall with the Bears last year, Like the Bears did anything in their power not to play that guy, and I think that would have been the same with Fuck. So now they've at least got more bodies in the backfield. I don't even know if Sony Michelle threatens Jones that much. I guess he's not the clear number two guy, but it's possible Jones could still factor in this offense. I think the guy that this trade really affects the most is Romandre Stevenson. I mean, we have to get excited about this guy now. Like the Patriots had a crowded backfield before, it was hard to see how Stevenson was going to fit in. But now this guy who scored four touchdowns in two preseason games. Might just get a shot to be their goal line guy and change a pace back and big dude, nimble pass catching ability. Like, if we're excited about Nagy Harris, can't we get at least a little excited about Romandre Stevenson, who can be like a dollar store Nagy Harris. Nah, the dollar store Nagy Harris. I like that very much, Yates. What are your thoughts on both ends of this of this deal? Yeah, I've got a lot of them. So with Darryl Henderson, this does not move him at all in my rankings. I mean, Sony Michelle, you look at the Patriots backfield. It had Damian Harris at the top. Romandre Stevenson was playing his way into a role. Seven point seven yards per carry in the preseason so far, four rushing touchdowns. Like, you've got to give this guy a roster spot. And then you've still got James White on this roster who can fill that veteran pass catching role. And then J. J. Taylor also has shown a lot here in the preseason. You're not going to carry five running backs into the NFL season, so who's the odd man out? It's a guy who hasn't been doing a ton over the past couple of years. It's Sony Michelle. So Sony Michelle was most likely going to be a cut candidate. Anyway, the r send away, you know, a fifth and sixth round pick, which will eventually turn into a fourth round pick if they do get the comp pick for John Johnson leaving in free agency next year. So they sent away a fourth round pick, and people are pointing to that and saying, well, this, you know, they send away a fourth round pick. This means that he's going to be involved in that he could potentially Adam Schefter's coming out this morning saying that he could be the lead back in this offense. And I just want to say, like, should we should not be looking at the Los Angeles Rams and their draft pick value to indicate their roles and what they are going to do. This is a team that spent a second round pick on two two at well, who could have been there in the fifth round pick a role player for them. They send away first round picks. They do not care about the draft picks at all. So sending away this draft capital, which we view as like, okay, that's significant. That means that they're going to use him. It really doesn't mean anything for me because it's the Los Angeles Rams. And additionally, Sony Michelle arthritis in his knee, Like, this is not a guy that you're going to give two hundred plus carries too on this season. Is he going to fill a He's a veteran presence on this backfield because if something happens to Daryl Henderson, now you have Xavier Jones who hasn't seen a snap in the NFL, and Jake funk is your only other two options. You needed another body in here, and they viewed Sony Michelle as a positive guy that can step in if needed and carry the load, at least to the point if Henderson goes down right, break glass in case of emergency. So I think that Sony Michelle is going to see five six carries per game. Darryl Henderson is not going to be a bell cow. He wasn't even going to be a bell cow even with the cam Akers injury even before this. But if you give him twelve to fifteen carries per game in this offense that I project to be a top five scoring offense, and you have him around the goal line, which he's actually really good at then he can absolutely be a top fifteen backs. So Henderson RB fifteen and my rankings before this trade RB fifteen after he didn't move at all. All right, I've got him lower bum a little bit more concerned than Yates is just because I think the seventeen game season a little bit more management going on there, especially in the early going. So I still have some guys like Mike Davis ahead of him, some other guys that are on that fringe of the RB two conversation. But it's a good conversation to have that as for sure. And we'll see There'll be a lot more shoes to drop in this next a few days, so make sure you tune into us your fantasy pros so we can break it all down for you. All right, let's start with Pat's rankings. The ECR is established, but Pat's got some thoughts and some feels, as all the kids like to say, he's got all the feels about certain guys. So let's talk about the guys that you are higher on Pat than the ECR. And let's start at your two running backs. Who are the running backs that you are higher on than the ECR. So I think I've got Miles Sanders a little bit higher. I believe he's my running back seventeen and Tray Sermon, who I've got in the early twenties, maybe running back twenty three. I think I've got Sermon ahead of Javante Williams, which is probably puts me in a very slim minority of rankers on Fantasy pros. So Sanders, it's just that I think people were scared initially of the threat that the Eagles were bringing in all these backs in the off season. They drafted Kenny Gainwell, they signed Carrie on Johnson, they brought back Jordan Howard. But we've kind of now seen these guys fall by the wayside. I mean, Gainwell is playing like with the third stringers late in preseason games. Doesn't look like he's an imminent threat to sanders role. Carrie on Johnson gone now. So I really do think Sanders is pretty much the clear guy here. Yeah, the other guys will get some run, but but Sanders is the main guy. And sanders production and efficiency really kind of jumped up after Jalen Hurts took over for what was, you know, just a moribund Eagles offense. Last year, and you know, the Eagles had all sorts of offensive line issues. Their line is back and healthy and could potentially be a top five old line. They've got this running quarterback who you know, with the read options stuff and the RPO stuff is going to widen running lanes for Sanders, as we kind of saw last year. And although the reports out of camp are that he's been a little sloppy with his pass catching skills, I think he does that have that in his bag of tricks too. So I'm above consensus on him. I would put him into that Chris Carson David Montgomery category. And I think I've actually got Sanders above Carson because I think he's younger, he's got more juice, and you know, I think he's kind of being undervalued coming into drafts all right now. When it comes to Trey Sermon, Pat, I mean, that's a young guy with a lot of juice that I think a lot of us are excited about. I too, have him higher than most of my rankings. So what is it that you are excited about? Because I know we're all excited about that Shanahan offense, but mostart is still there and there's still some other guys around, So do you think Sermon can kind of break out from that group sooner than later? Yeah, Joe, So we you mentioned the Shanahan offense. So I'm going to go back and include Mike anahan is in this because we've seen that Shanahan zone system turns some guys who were basically jobbers into just phenoms, right, Tatum Bell, Ruben Drones, Al, Travis Henry going over and over right, So like these these just uh, you know, run of the mill names have had big seasons in the Shanahan system. But when you put a special back into the Shanahan system, Clinton portis Terrell Davis like league winning magic there. And if it turns out that Sermon is one of these dudes, and I mean, boy last year in the college football playoffs he was terrific. I mean he ripped apart a really good Northwestern defense last year. And this guy has like the one cuts ability that just fits the Shanahan system so well. And if it turns out that he is one of those magic guys, like you know, for a mid round pick, you're talking gold here, and you know, at worst, I think you're getting a guy who's going to be part of that committee and have some like weekly flex type value and you're paying like a flex type price. But the upside here is well worth playing for. I like the pot odds well, I would have to agree, Yeah, I would absolutely have to agree with you, pat on that it's a guy you could draft as a flex that you could possibly get a lot more of Yates. Do you see that same thing when you look at Sermon? Yeah. Absolutely. That's the big point that I was going to double back on with what Pat said, was that where Tracerman is going in drafts right now, there's a very little downside, right if it doesn't pan out the way that we think it could, if he doesn't get the majority of the careys here, if we do see Raheem Mostert be that guy to start the season, or whatever the case may be, he's still going to have enough work in a very very good offense to provide you at least flex value. Right you're drafting him as an RB three right now, you don't have to rely on him as a cornerstone of your fantasy football roster. But if he does take that step forward and does become the guy who is the predominant ball carrier, in this backfield, and that you have Raheem Moster as a change of pace option, then you've got a potential league winner that you got in the mid rounds. So there is very little downside two Trey Sermon. As the offseason has progressed, I've been just slowly moving him up and up my rankings, and I think that highlighting him and having him above ECR is definitely something that Pat is worthy of doing. All right, we're gonna move on to some of the wide receiver names that Pat is highlighted, but before we do, I want to tell everybody about Underdog Fantasy. We got to talk about it because Underdog Fantasy is the best and easiest place to play fantasy football for big cash prizes. On Underdog Fantasy, you just draft. There's no need to worry about waivers, lineups, trades, injuries, none of that right Underdog handles at all for you. Go to Underdog Fantasy dot Com or download the app today, draft a season long bestball team and that's it. No in season management. They're going to give you twenty five dollars when you sign up, so take a free shot at a million dollar grand prize in their fantasy football tournament. 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All right, Pat, there's three wide receivers you've got that you're higher on than ECR. Give me the names and give me the reasons why, all right, Jerry, Judy, Leviscus Channault, and Rondelle Moore. And I'll start with Judy. I mean, it's just sort of we've seen on tape from him. I think he's right now still like probably one of the better route runners in the game and one of the better after the catch guys after the game. Like he is just exceptional in both of those areas. And I guess the one point where the one aspect of his game where he fell down was the actual catching of the football last year. But we've seen Davante Adams struggle with that his first couple of years, to the point where people, you know, on Twitter, it's a trash DeVante is being terrible. I'm not too worried about drops as a you know, an indicator of future success, the same reason I've got Deonte Johnson ranked highly this year, not at all worried about that. I think the other reason people might be a little more reserved about Judy is the target competition and the quarterback situation. With the target competition, I'm thinking that, you know, maybe court And Sutton is not ready to be Courtland Sutton. Again, we've kind of heard that from camp that he just does not go up and win those balls in the air like he used to, Like maybe the knee is still not quite there. We've seen him kind of running some tentative routes in little clips from camp, Like, I think Judy is going to be the number one guy here, And as far as the quarterbacking, I mean, I think that's actually a reason to be excited about him. Judy, according to PFF, I believe he led the league in uncatchable targets. Targets just ruled like no chance for the wide receiver by a mile last year, Like it was some ridiculously high number. So like he's bound to get some regression on that. Either Drew Lock gets better and we've seen some signs of that in the preseason, or they're gonna put Teddy in there, and I think Teddy can you know we saw Teddy's support DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson pretty nicely last year and Michael Thomas two years ago. Let's not forget when he stepped in there, and he was still pretty good when Breeze was out. So who's number two on that wide receivers? Chanault now does Chennault for you, Pat get a little bit of a bump here with Trevis Etia not around. Yeah, he does for sure, Joe. I mean, we've got the two vertical receivers there with DJ Shark and Marvin Jones, and you know the rookie quarterback is going to want a reliable short area receiver, and I think that's clearly Chant now, especially with ETN out. Like, I don't think the ETN loss necessarily means that, you know, the Jaguars are just out of luck as far as a reliable pass ketcher. We saw James Robinson do enough of it last year. You know, he doesn't have the same juice in the passing game that ETN has. But I think they're gonna find ways now for Chanal to be sort of that Swiss army knife. And this is a big dude. I mean, Chanult reminds me of like young an Kuon Bolden before Bolden was you know, running an offensive lineman type forty time in his later years, like when Bolden was younger and had a little bit of burst and then just being one of the harder guys to tackle in the game. I think Channel can be that because, like man, if you go back and watch Chenault's sophomore year at the University of Colorado, Like you couldn't help but get excited about one tape. Yeah, absolutely, absolutely, So I want to see a little more of that this year, and I think we're going to And then the third guys, Rondel Moore, who's getting a lot of buzz here on this show too. So why is it getting buzz in your rankings? Yeah, you want to talk about exciting college tape, go back to twenty eighteen at Purdue and Rondel Moore. I mean, Purdue has not been appointment viewing on a college football Saturday since Drew Brees was running Joe Tiller's offense, like I remember it well and more like, you know, single handedly beat Ohio State that year eighteen touchdowns, I think like eighteen hundred combined yards from scrimmage. He was just a monster. And the naysayers are going to say that it's like kind of a gimmicky usage for him that he's run on all these like little flare outs and bubble screens and then you know occasional handoffs Jeff sweeps, Okay, yeah, Cliff Kingsberry is the I mean, yeah, everyone knocks Cliff for this horizontal passing game that he's running. Like they were running those routes to Larry Fitzgerald last year. Now they're getting them to Rondel Moore, who might literally be twice as fast as Larry Fitzgerald. So like, I think we're going to see a lot more receptions, whatever the over under number is on Rondel Moore, receptions, Like I want the over, and like I'm totally sold that it's going to go way over. Seventy seventy five catches would not surprise me at all. And man, like, this guy's not some frail little dude. This guy squats like six hundred pounds or something ridiculous. Like this guy is mighty mouse, and I'm really excited about him. I've been getting him like in more than half of my drafts. I've been annoyed by Ian Harditts, who I've found myself in a lot of drafts with lately and likes Rondale even more than I do and keep stealing him from me. So definitely a guy to be targeting in like the thirteen fourteenth round of your draft. Yeah, I gotta tell you, I feel very warm and fuzzy when you'd say nice things about Jerry Judy, who I continuously just keep pounding the table for. And you know, Yates, you were kind of lightening up there what he was talking about some of the college tape of Lavisco Sheenault and Rondel Moore. Is this a year where these guys are going to outperform their ADP in your opinion or you know, even the ECR as we're talking about here. Yeah. So one of the interesting things with Lavisko Chanlt going into the year was you Urban Meyer comes in as head coach and you say, all right, well, Lavisco Chanult's kind of Leavisco Chanult kind of fits this role that he's always had in his offenses with Paris Campbell at Ohio State, the way with Cadarius Tony that he had at Florida. Like these these players that are able to create yards after the catch in the horizontal aspect of the game. They work underneath and then they pick up yards after the catch and it's speed. So then you look Atscoult and you're like, perfect, he can fit that role because he not only has speed at his size, but then he also has the size to go with it. That he can and fantastic contact balance two and getting yards after contact. He's like a running back out there in the open field. So you look at that and you got all right, Leviscohannult perfect. He fills that role. And then they go after Kadarius Tony in the first round of the NFL Draft. They don't get him, so then they draft Travis Eytn and it's like, Okay, well, ETN is probably going to fill that role. So I was lower on Leviisco Chanult because I had all those that role being dedicated to Travis Eytn. Well, now et N's out of the picture and Leavisco Chanult comes flying up my rankings. I've now got him at wide receiver forty one on the year because he is going to fill a very, very valuable role for this offense. And you talk about it pat with DJ charts stretching the field with his four or three speed or whatever he's got. Marvin Jones is a deep field threat and contested catchability, and then you've got an opening here underneath with no tight end right, James O'Shaughnessy is like they're they're tight end one on this offense. Spoiler alert, He's not going to do much this year, so you've got to have either James Robinson catching a ton of passes out of the backfield or Laviskoschnell is going to get fed. And so I think Lavis Koshell definitely, as a guy who has fantastic college stape, who has now has that role locked up to him and guaranteed to him, is absolutely going to be a value in fantasy football drafts this year. It's just a matter of staying healthy for him, which is also the same thing with Rondale Moore. You know, you talk about Rondale Moore and the electric season that he had in twenty eighteen, and as soon as you say Rondel Moore, the immediate thought is Ohio State twenty eighteen. Like that game just comes immediately to mind because he absolutely dominated and then we really didn't see him much on the field over the next couple of seasons here. So he gets the draft capitol here in Arizona. I think he's going to fill a very valuable rule you talk about, he's going to get force fed targets, So I think he has a little bit more value in PPR leagues. But it's kind of the same thing with Deebo Samuel in San Francisco last year, where it's like the a dot was two point two yards for Samuel. So far through the preseason, it's kind of been around the same, maybe even less for Rondale Moore. So he needs to be incredibly, incredibly efficient with his yards after the catch in order to be able to sustain fantasy value to the point where he's in the flex conversation weekend a week out. If there ever was a player to do that, though it is Rondel Moore. I just have questions about the consistency. So, Pat, one of the questions I was going to ask you is where exactly do you have him in your rankings. Is he a guy that you're like drafting two rounds ahead to be able to get him as a flex on your roster, or is he someone that's still in like the fifties the sixties, a guy that you're taking stashing on your bench and hopes that he can be something you know and grow into a role. I've got him at forty six right now in half point PPR, so right in the like, I think he's just behind DJ Shark. I've got him ahead of Elijah More like, I think he's the better rookie Moore wide receiver to have so at forty six, like, I'm pretty confident that I'm going to have him ranked ahead of most people and be pretty far in the leading edge. So he is a guy like I'll jump people to maybe you know, get him in the twelfth thirteenth. Like ideally he's like my fifth or sixth receiver where he doesn't have to necessarily be a guy I lean on every week, but a guy who if he pops there, he is for me as my third receiver, flex guy potentially very good, very good. And with Channault, you said where do you have him right now? Yates, you said forty three? You haventy one. Okay, I've got him at forty three, So we're pretty close there as well. So all of us have made the adjustments and shame on us we're not talking about that earlier when we talked about Robinson because that's kind of the ruple effect too. So glad we hit it here before we get to the quarterback and the tight end that we need to discuss that Pat's higher on. I want to tell you about pristine auction football is around the corner that means all kinds of cool stuff can be yours and press all your friends and families, your draft mates. Go to Christine Auction dot com and check out the auction for all kinds of stuff. 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All right, Pat, let us switch gears here to your quarterback and tight end that you are higher on. And I gotta tell everybody right now. When I saw the name, I'm super excited for who you're going to talk about a quarterback because I think it's overdue. Yeah, it's Trevor Lawrence. So I've got him as my quarterback, twelve ahead of guys like Tom Brady, which is gonna away a lot of people, but we'll talk more about that a little later. And Joe Burrow, which might annoy Yates because I know Yate's the big Joe Burrow guy. Basically with Lawrence, I mean, we've just talked about the Jaguars offense, so I won't, you know, trample over that ground again. But like, this guy stepped in as this highly touted high school star instantly you know he was the real deal from day one at Clemson and he did everything everyone ever hoped of him. I really think he is the best quarterback prospect to come out of college since Andrew Lucke. And like, maybe the buzz about him is not what it would be because there's so much excitement right now about Trey Lance and Justin Fields and deservedly so, like, this is a really exciting year for rookie quarterback. So but just because those guys are stepping into spots where maybe they're not assured the starting gig right away, they're getting a little more attention than Trevor Lawrence, you know, who's who's going to start. No matter what urban Meyer says about this being a competition with Gardner, Minshew, Yeah, that's an eye roll for sure. So it's gonna be Lawrence. And what I like, you know, not only do I think he's going to be a credible NFL passer right away, you know, and have some pretty exciting pass catchers at his disposal with the two vertical threats and Charkin and Martin Jones and then Chanlt. But like, this guy runs, and he runs aggressively, and he's a big dude, and he's not afraid to take a hit. Maybe he should be a little more afraid to take hits in preseason games. I didn't like seeing him get knocked around against the Saints the other night. But this guy's gonna add like four to six rushing touchdowns. He's gonna add two hundred to three hundred and fifty rushing yards, Like he's going to add some value there and you need that. Like that's gonna like it's hard for a guy to be a legitimate quarterback one now in fantasy if he does not add rushing value. You know we're going to see that with Matthew Stafford. He's in a great situation this year, but like he's not going to get that rushing boost, so he probably has like quarterback ten as a ceiling. I don't think Lawrence even has that as a limiting thing. I could see him finishing as high as QB seven, QB eight as a rookie, and he's a guy you can typically get. Quarterback fifteen in your draft is sort of an afterthought. Yeah, I've been talking that we're not hyping him enough, Like all of our attention has gone to those other guys, and rightfully so they deserve it, but we're like taking him for granted. And what you're mentioning two pat is that that concept of him, you know, rushing, that we forget about how good he was at college doing that, but also the necessity that offensive line is not good. He's gonna get flushed from that pocket quite a bit. So that's going to force him entering the football maybe a little bit more. And your tight end that you're higher on than everybody else, who is that? Pat Yeah, so this is I'm exactly one spot higher on the sky than everyone else. It's George Kittle, who I've actually got ahead of Darren Waller, which I know is kind of a controversial thing these days, but I guess it's like I see both of these guys as two three turn type of guys, and Waller's typically going now and like the mid second round and Kittle maybe early third. Like I see almost a half a round to a full round difference between the two. And I'm not sure why. Waller had one hundred and forty five targets last year, which I think was tied for the fifth highest target total for any tight end in the last decade, so I think he's kind of at the zenith of his target capacity right now. Kittle has very steadily over the last three years average like eight targets a game versus Waller's nine last year, so he's right there. The big difference being Waller was at like eight point two yards per target or something last year. Kittle's three year average on yards per target is ten. I mean, this guy is just so efficient, such a monster, and it's mainly because the two hardest guys to tackle in the NFL are Derrick Henry and George Kittle. Like this guy's an absolute beast. I think people are a little scared that while San Francisco has better wide receivers, so they're going to somehow put a dent in Kittle's target chair, even though in the games where he played with Ayuk and Debo, where they were all healthy last year, he averaged basically the same as he always does it eight point three targets a game. People are also kind of assuming maybe that Rugs and Brian Edwards don't take a step up for the Raiders that got John Brown there too. And I think people also see Derek Car's more of a reliable ball delivery system. Don't feel bad, I still do that all these years later. Every now and then, I'll give you a San Diego Charger every year, every now and then I'll give you the wrong car. So it happens all of us. Don't worry. Yeah, So, and like I know, Yates is going to reject the idea that somehow the quarterbacking is better quick to feed Waller than it is for Kittle. You know, when we're gonna get Trey Lance eventually throwing to Kittle. So to me, like they're right, they're neck and neck. I actually like Kittle a little more. I mean in overall rankings, I've got them side by side. But whereas I think Waller is being a little overdrafted, I think Kittle's being a little underdrafted. All right, Yates, when it comes to Waller and Kittle, this is fun because you know, yesterday we had Ericson on the show talking about Waller. Today we have pat On talking about Kittle. And this is this is why I love the guests we bring in, because they make such good arguments. I'm curious, where do you land on that argument between those two guys. You're not gonna get a huge difference here or like a huge fight for me, because I've got these guys separated by two fantasy points in my projections. That seems like I'm fine. I know, right, I'm fine with either one. I think an argument going in George Kittle's direction has been the just the drops from the receiver options here in San Francisco. You know, Brandon and you struggling with drop STEVEO Samuel struggling with here throughout the preseason. So once Trey Lance does take over, we're even Jimmy Garoppolo. It's like, I want to go to a guy who I know is going to catch the football. And because of Kyle Shanahan's scheme, George Kittle is always freaking open, and I don't understand how NFL defenses are, like, maybe we should double team this guys that way. He's not always open, but he seemingly always is. So yeah, I think the only thing standing in George Kittle's way of finishing at the end of the season above Darren Waller is injury. Right, That's the only thing that is standing I think in George Kittle's way because I do think that he's going to have a guaranteed volume in this offense. I don't think Brandon and a Yuk. I'm a little bit lower on Brandon Iyuke and Deebo Samuel because I do think that so many of the target the target share is still going George Kittle's way. He's in the number one option in this offense. So I completely agree with Pat. The only thing that I would just push back on a little bit there is to say, like the injury risk that's the only thing here. But Darren Waller also has missed some time earlier on this offseason with an injury as well. He's back of practice now, but Kittle has a little bit more of a lengthy injury history with that. Yeah, good, now, one on that. All right, let's move on here. But before we do, I want to tell everybody about another one of our sponsors, and that of course, is fan Tracks. Fan Tracks is the most customizable fantasy platform in the industry, offering the greatest fantasy experience if your dynasty keeper, redraft and bestball leagues. Fan Tracks Free NFL Fantasy Football League Manager is the most customizable, easy to use, and feature rich platform in the industry. If you're coming for another service, fan Tracks can import any of your current leagues and customize them if needed. 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Encourage your league mates to enter as well. Simply go to fantracks dot com slash Fantasy pros to sign up today. And remember at Josh Allen Jersey fantracks gaveaway you remember that in July, Well, guess what that was won by a listener of our Fantasy Pros podcast here, So make sure that you go and enter because you might win a little something extra as well. Go to fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros to sign up today Fantracks, the home of fantasy sports. All right, let's move on here to some of the guys. Now, Pat, that you are lower on the ECR and Pat, let's start with the running backs that you are a little lower on than everybody else. So let's look at the downside of the two running backs you selected, Yeah, Mike Davis and David David Montgomery Montgomery, I think we can cover pretty quickly. I like him. I don't think he's going to have the same sort of role obviously last year, regardless of whether Terrico it comes back healthy. They've got Damian Williams. Now, there's gonna be a downtick in volume for sure. They don't want to work Montgomery to death the way they did last year, and the Bears offensive line is still pretty terrible. I think the offense might have some growing pains if it's Justin Fields there. You know, I don't see Justin Fields as being a big checkdown guy once he gets in. So I'm just a little nervous about Montgomery. Don't have a big beef with where he's being drafted. But you know, since I'm a little lower, I'm not winding up with him. Really in any drafts, Mike Davis is more the guy I would be setting off, you know, warning flares about He is to me, just the kind of guy I never really want to draft a guy who is I think this is going to be his age twenty eighth season, a twenty eight year old old career backup being pushed up boards due to volume projection. And it's a projection. Sure, Like we don't, you know, have any faith in Quadrialison or Javian Hawkins or Cordarrel Patterson or whoever else the Falcons might bring into this backfield. But like, I'm not willing to just buy that. We can put Mike Davis down in Penn for two hundred to two hundred and fifty carries and he goes at a point in drafts like the fifth round where there are still good receivers like Tee Higgins and Deonte Johnson might be available there. It might be your last chance to get you upper echelon tight ends like Mark Andrews or t J. Hawkinson. It might be Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray or some other premium quarterback there. Like the fifth round is kind of an important pivot point in drafts, and I think Mike Davis is a really bad way to spend a fifth round pick. And Hawkins actually was just released last night. So one one less running back. I know, in the flurry of everything else going on, it's it's hard to catch everything sometimes. But that's one less guy now in that backfield. But look, I take it all back. Then Joe's Mike Davis. It's all Mike Davis. No. But but you're right. I mean, look, Mike Davis is another way these guys I don't trust as an RB two, as a flex I'm okay with um. Look, you know, I still see Montgomery as a safe kind of investment. I like where he's going. I feel safe about it. I know who he is, I know what he is. Um. You know, when it comes to Davis, though, in particular Yates, you know that there is one less guy to worry about on the depth chart. Do you feel like we're falling into a false sense of security when it comes to Davis. I've talked about how I think Davis is going to come out of the gates on fire. I think that he's going to be force fed volume, and then I have concerns about his durability as the season progresses. So I think that he's going to be a very, very valuable fantasy asset to start the year, and then maybe three or four weeks into the season, I might be willing to trade him. I might be willing to sell high on Mike Davis to be able to move up the board for maybe a guy who is underperforming throughout the first few weeks of the season, hasn't had some great matchups, whatever the case may be. Because I do have concerns about Mike Davis over the course of seventeen games, like Pat said, a twenty eight year old, like career backup, like he even last year when he did step in, you know, he was wearing down as the season progressed. So I think he's going to be force fed targets and force fed volume because where else is it going to go in this offense. But then I have concerns about what this offense is going to look like come week fourteen and so on. So yeah, I think Mike Davis it's just a matter of like now we look at the rest of the board, It's like, Okay, who do I put him behind? You know, like all these running backs were starting to starting to get pretty thin, starting to get pretty thin. So I think Mike Davis is still someone that I'm willing to draft as a high end RB three, you know, a guy that I can rely on at the beginning of the season then hopefully ship off. It's a default ranking almost you know where he just you're starting to just lose guys like there's just nothing after that. And well, and he is the guy. But Pat's right, just because he's the guy, doesn't mean he's going to be great. Though, to confuse the two or conflate the two, especially with your draft capital, when the guys you say you could draft instead and make a different kind of investment and maybe save another round and go, you know, take a tracer but or somebody like that potentially, or reach if you want. All right, let's talk about your wide receivers that you are a little lower on than the consensus. Here, Pat, and you've got three names, two of which are pretty well known veterans. Yeah, two veterans who have a lot of credibility and goodwill with fantasy managers, Keenan Allen and Adam Feeling, and then DJ Shark and with Chark, I think it's mostly just the fact that they brought in Marvin Jones, a guy with basically similar skill sets and a guy who's been like really efficient in that role. Just kind of a duplication of things. And when the process started of doing rankings back in January, I think I had Chark just because I'm excited about the talent, had him maybe in the early to mid thirties, and I think now I've got him down in like the mid forties, as I mentioned, like just ahead of Rondel Moore, like forty five or so. I just I think it's gonna be hard for him to really pop in this offense when he's got another vertical receiver to compete with Keenan Ellen. Like we've heard the talk about Mike Williams playing this X role now in this new offense for the Chargers, and how that's probably going to funnel him some extra targets. You know, Keenan's getting a little older. He's answered the durability questions, but he's becoming a little less efficient. We saw him average fewer than ten yards per per catch last year. We saw him average like six point seven yards per target, which frankly isn't very good. Like he is a still just an elite route runner. You know, when he was asked to compare himself to other route runners, what was the line, van go Picasso them boys. So that was one of the one of the better offseason quotes, and I agree he's terrific at that, but he is a short area guy. In order for him to really make his bones this year in fantasy, he is going to have to catch a lot of balls. A lot of balls means a greater chance for you know, physical punishment and maybe injury in his older age. So you know, I still have him at like wide receiver eleven or twelve or something like that. I'm not totally dissing him, but like I think there's a little more risk than people are maybe factored into the ranking. And then Adam feeling, Okay, we know he's going to regress from the fourteen touchdowns, Like that's pretty obvious. I think people are still drawn to the fact that it's a skinny usage tree in the passing game in Minnesota with Jefferson feeling maybe IRF Smith and that's about it. No legitimate third receiver, but it's kind of been that way anyway, And we saw feeling average, like nine targets a game in two thousand, seventeen eighteen. Over the last two years, that number has dipped to six point three targets a game on average, And like, I think targets are earned, Like there's something too that, And that's kind of an alarming drop in targets for a guy whose situation really hasn't changed that much. I mean, the Justin Jefferson arrivals certainly maybe diminished his role a little bit, but still a two receiver system, same quarterback, and we're seeing this big drop in targets. To me, that's kind of a scary sign. I've got him at like wide receiver twenty six, twenty five. Again, I don't think that's too disrespectful, but I know a lot of people have him more like wide receiver nineteen, wide receiver twenty. Yeah. Look, I think it's so dangerous here, Pat, and you're kind of highlighting is is these guys have been stable in the past. These guys have been rocks and cornerstones of a lot of good fantasy teams. And another year older and some of those numbers starting to go into a different direction. There's cause for concern and that's what makes him so dangerous. Yeates, do you see any danger in Theeland and Adams specifically Adam Feeland as you know, continue to look at the twenty twenty one board. Yeah, so I've got Keenan Allen at twelve I think right in that same range as Pat. I acknowledge that you know for him, Yeah, nine point nine yards per reception last year off the top of my head, like he has to be that yards per reception has to tick up for him to finish above some of these other guys like a Ceedee Lamb, Terry mclaur and Allen Robinson in that range. I think Keenan Allen gets a bump up in full PPR formats. Obviously with just how many targets he's going to see. We know that those he's still going to be a very very safe option for you. But I don't think that the upside is there with Adam Theland. You are betting on efficiency. Now, the offense hasn't changed, right, You've got some guys that are battling for the wide receiver three spot. But you know, I don't think that Theland is going to suddenly lose out his wide receiver one or wide receiver two job. You know he's justin. Jefferson is going to take over, of course, but Dealing is still going to be involved, and he has the chemistry with Kirk Cousins. It's just a matter of are you willing to bet on that efficiency where he could finish as a top twelve wide receiver. I don't have him ranked there, so yeah, I think. And then DJ Chark, I've been moving him down, down and down and down as the off season progresses. I don't have him as low as Pat, But yeah, I think with DJ Chark, it's just it's a concern the state of the offense where it's trending. I just have concerns about it. All right, Pat, you tease the Tom Brady thing earlier, So give us the Tom Brady evaluation, and again why he can't be great, because it seems like that's all we do every year of why this is the end of Tom Brady, and every year we come back, you're going, no, no, it's gonna be this year. But it's got to be one of these years somebody's gonna be right. And then give me your tight end. Also that you are lower on than the consensus. While you're at it. That's it, Joe. I'm gonna be public enemy number one here, probably with you two since you're a Pats fan. But like you mentioned it, one of these years, like it's the it's the actuarial tables here, like he is going to tumble over the age cliff one of these years. And he's forty four. Now, okay, he turned forty four earlier this month. And we say, oh, but he's Tom Brady. He's one of the greatest. He's not, you know, like one of these other guys. I mean, the list of guys who have started a game in the NFL at this age, I think it begins and ends with Vinny Testaverdi. Now, like he's the only one who started a game this old No, Like we say, yes, but Tom Brady is no Vinny Testaverdie. This guy's a walk in Hall of Famer, maybe the best of all time. Yes, agreed, But we have seen some other great quarterbacks slam into the wall at one hundred miles an hour at younger ages. We saw Peyton Manning have a great season in two thousand and fourteen. In two thousand and fifteen, I mean the Denver Broncos, like carried him, dragged him over the finish line to a championship. I mean he was completely out of gas, and we saw it in twenty fifteen. He was thirty nine in that year where he tumbled over the age. Cliff Brett Farve almost gets the Vikings to the Super Bowl in two thousand and nine at age forty played great that year. The next year he was an absolute train wreck. Eleven touchdowns, nineteen interceptions. He was forty one. Tom Brady is forty four. Like, I know, we love the pass catchers. I know Brady played really well last year, although he should had like four or five interceptions in the NFC Championship game. I'm not going to say anything more about that. Oh, you're not wrong. I just think we should be really careful here and plus like without any running ability, Like the ceiling is pretty capped here. Like I think that the ceiling is kind of capped at where he's being drafted, like QB nine, QB ten, but I've got him a little lower QB fourteen. I just think there's risk here that people are No, you're not wrong, amazingly blind to for a forty four year old quarterback. It's it's just the more you keep looking for it and everyone keeps getting knocked the other way, they keep spinning around, and eventually they just get tired of getting punched in the face. I feel like by Tom Brady and and he lives to do this, like this is literally his thing. Now, who's your tight end that you also have in a different spot. Yeah, I can go fast on this, Robert Tonyan, you know, just to show I can dis unpackers too. As a packer fan, eighty eight percent catch rate last year, about twenty percent of his catches went for touchdown. It just screams regression. Plus the packers that brought Randall cobback, they've drafted Amari Rodgers, so there's a little more competition for those those short area receptions. I just think regression is imminent. I don't think you know a lot of people have Tonyon at the top of that drop off point at tight end. After you know, we've got the good six that everyone wants going down to Pitts, Andrews and Hawkinson, it's like four or five six, Then like Logan Thomas is kind of the bridge guy at tight end seven, then it's kind of messy. I think a lot of people have to at like tight end eight nine ten. I think he should be more in the tight end fourteen fifteen range, all right, So obviously Pat is very equal opportunity there. He took a shot on his own guy, his own Packers guy, Robert Townian. That's a player, yates that you like a lot as a free tight end, granted, but take me through your thoughts on Robert Tonian and take me through your thoughts on Tom Brady as well. Yeah, with Tony in the argument is touchdown rate, right, it was a ridiculous touchdown rate for him, a very high catch rate as well, So you are betting on that happening with Robert Tonyan. But also I like where he's going in drafts, where I think that that is worth taking the shot on because he still has Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. Right, If it was Jordan Love, I would be completely out on Robert Tonyan. But because it is Aaron Rodgers, one of the if not the greatest passer in NFL history, then I will say that I Robert Toney was the tight end one at one point last year, guys, So I feel like he can absolutely return value on where he's being going. So I'll push back on that one a little bit. I've got Tony into little bit higher with tom Brady. I definitely get the arguments. I mean that is at some point it has to fall off, right at some point, and so do we get ahead of it or do we just ride this wave and just say I'm gonna I'll ride this wave straight to hell and I will just continue to plug tom Brady into my starting lineup until it falls off. I mean, you look at all the receiving weapons he's got, and it's hard not to continue to buy into tom Brady. You've got a bet on ridiculous touchdown, ridiculous touchdowns, ridiculous you know, passing volume because he brings nothing with his legs. Of course, so maybe where he's going is a little bit too high in draft, but I can't move him outside my top twelve, top thirteen quarterbacks just because of the receiving weapons that he's got. All he has to do is get rid of the ball, get it into their hands, and we know that you can do that really well, and they'll create for him. I was gonna say, that's that's pretty much vintage Tom Brady looking for the open man. Hitting him in stride and then just letting them do the rest. But look, Pat, you're you're not wrong. I mean, one of these years it's got to happen. It's got to be the case. But you know what, up until then, we'll just have to keep watching. And you're right, the ceiling is certainly capped, I think at this point for breaking too. So now more than ever, we have to realize the downside. Pat, there's no downside to you ever. As a guest, you're one of my favorite people to read and to listen to you talk about football, and it's been so fun to actually do a show with you, not once but twice in seven days time. So I just want to thank you again for your time. You can follow Pat on Twitter at fits underscore f and again check him out as the host of the fits on Fantasy podcast and also the work he does with Footballgirl dot com. Anything else you want to plug here, Pat, before we let you go for the day. Yeah, just check out the fits on Fantasy Pod. Yeah, you can just check out the fits on Fantasy Pod once a week, usually comes out Monday morning or Tuesday morning. And that's about it. I'm afraid I'm not going to be on the Tom Brady Trained to hell with you guys, but I'll be at the station wavings. You guys leave the leave and uh, you know, hopefully have a nice journey there. It's great, too great to talk about you guys. Happy drafting absolutely, and happy drafting to everybody else out there too. 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And that of course a five dollar credit when you use the promo code Fantasy Pros. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for Pat Fitzmorris and Kyle Yates. I'm JOEYP. We will see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. Follow us on Twitter and Instagram Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros.
