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Tom Maher of Hilton Capital Management explains what is changing for small-cap stocks as earnings improve and AI spending reaches beyond big tech. After years of justified large-cap leadership, he sees reasons to revisit smaller companies while remaining selective about business quality, financing needs and valuation.
In this episode of Excess Returns, we explore the physical infrastructure behind AI, the case for diversifying beyond the largest stocks, and how Tom Maher finds businesses with improving fundamentals. We also discuss the effects of passive investing, opportunities in reshoring, and why knowing more about a company does not always lead to a better investment decision.
Topics covered:
- Why stronger earnings helped justify large-cap leadership and what could change that balance
- How AI construction and equipment spending can benefit smaller industrial companies
- Why some small companies grow into large caps while others remain small
- Self-funding businesses versus companies that depend on outside capital
- Unprofitable index constituents, private equity and the changing IPO market
- How interest rates affect financing costs, valuations and portfolio decisions
- Why ETF flows can move a stock independently of its business fundamentals
- Finding improving businesses without mistaking a low valuation for an opportunity
- Evaluating management incentives, consistency and acquisition decisions
- Tom Maher's lessons on taking partial profits and reading unexpected stock-price reactions
Learn more about Hilton Capital Management.
Chapters:
00:00 Tom Maher's outlook: earnings, valuations and risk
05:26 Small-cap earnings and AI infrastructure spending
11:41 Defining small caps and why some companies stay small
16:45 Active management and business quality
22:03 Small-cap index quality and companies staying private
27:15 Combining stock selection with a macro view
32:58 Higher interest rates and portfolio decisions
37:04 Passive investing and ETF-driven stock moves
41:33 Finding stocks with improving fundamentals
51:13 Valuation, consistency and management quality
56:39 Reshoring and the industrial recovery
01:01:14 Research, profit-taking and investor expectations
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network.
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
