Voting With Their Feet

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Welcome back to Beyond the Polls. This week I'll talk
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reapportionment and redistricting with the Sabato Crystal Balls. Kyle Content,
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let's dive in. Well this year, if you're following politics
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at all, you know that we're in the middle of
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redistricting wars, or it now tends to seem to be
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the political version of the Thirty Years War. It gets
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hot and cold, but it never really ends. But the
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precursor to the redistricting wars are the reapportionment battles, which
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is to say, the Dissennio movement of the number of
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House seats for taking them away from some states and
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adding to others based on relative populationships. And here to
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talk with us about reapportionment, projections, redistricting and everything is
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Kyle Conduct, Managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the
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University of Virginia Center for Politics. Kyle, welcome back to
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Beyond the Polls twenty twenty six.
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Always good to be with you. Henry.
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Well, let's just dive right into it is that thanks
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to the government shutdown, the thing that the Christmas present
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that numbers nerds like me always look forward to got
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delayed to oh, I guess Orthodox Christmas because it was
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closer to Epiphany than Christmas. But that is the every
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year estimate of populations by the states, which immediately gets
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fed into models by the reapportionment projectors to tell us
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what's going on, who, which states are losing and which
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states are gaining. What do the data tell us this
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time the.
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Same basic trend that we've seen throughout the decade. And
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then also, you know, in previous reapportionment cycles really going
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back to the middle of the last century, and that
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you know, broadly speaking, the West and the Sun Belt
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are gaining how you know, electoral votes and with them
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house seats, and the Northeast and the Midwest are losing seats.
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The one change of recent vintage is that you know, California,
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which for basically its entire history had been adding population
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and growing faster around the country, in the twenty ten census,
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California did not add a seat, I believe for the
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first time ever. And then in the twenty twenty senses
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it lost a seat. And the projections now are that
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you know, it might lose three or four seats, and
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so that's sort of a big difference in terms of
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the longer term historical trend, but state it's like Florida
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and Texas adding House seats and electoral votes. That's been
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going on for decades and decades, and that's slated to continue.
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And one thing that happened in the last census reapportionment
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is that it seemed like Texas would gain three and
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Florida would gain two, but they each respectively gained only
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two in one and there are some questions about, you know,
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that the census undercount them. A lot of the Democratic
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leaning states may be made more of an effort to
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sort of promote filling out the census farm. So it's
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a lot of complicated stuff. But the point is is
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that Florida and Texas were really close to getting an
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additional seat in the twenty twenty census, which means that
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it's not a surprise that they're slated to gain even
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more coming up here in in twenty thirty based on
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the sort of you know, middle of the decade projection.
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Yeah, I mean, that's one of the things is that
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the hot take, certainly on the right after these numbers
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came out, was oh, look, all these people are fleeing
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blue states and going to red states. It must be
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red state Republican conservative governance. And I'm not going to
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say it had nothing to do It has nothing to
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do with it. You know that on the margin, an
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older population that has sufficient resources to relocate might very
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well look towards warmer, lower tax states. But the fact
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is this has been going on since the nineteen seventies
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in some way or another, you know, Texas gaining, Florida gaining,
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the Southeast gaining. The only real change has been the
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rise and now the decline of California. What do you
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think is behind this? You know, as long as I've
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been an adult movement away from the Northeast and the Midwest,
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the old industry real states towards the newly industrial and
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service based states of what was I believe first up
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by Kevin Phillips as the Sunbelt in the Emerging of
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Republican Majority in his book in nineteen seventy.
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I mean probably the like the much longer term answer
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is air conditioning. I don't think that explains it. That
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it doesn't explain it today, but I think it probably does.
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You know, if you go go you know, far far back.
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I do think retirees is part of it. I think
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that's particularly been the case with Florida, maybe less so Texas.
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I do think there probably is a story about housing
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and availability of it. And you know Texas, I mean
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what particularly what is it. Houston basically doesn't have any
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zonning at all. But you know, certainly you compare California
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and Texas and sort of the barriers for building I
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think are very are very real. I don't think, you know,
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I don't think you have to be hack partisan to
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point that out. I mean, I think there is something
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there with that, and you know, so they're probably a
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lot of different things that go into it. But also
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that you know, the you look at sort of the
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quote unquote rust belt. You know where I'm from in Ohio,
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and like, you know, there was a ton of opportunity
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and a ton of jobs there, you know, right after
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World War two and you know, before the war and
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all that, and a lot of that has just shifted
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over time, you know, the industrialization and the rise of
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of you know, different kinds of different kinds of industries,
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and you know, I think it's a very complicated stort
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of immigration is part of it too, and you know
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that's going to have more of a bearing going forward,
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because we're going to you know, we may very well
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be entering sort of a lower immigration time now because
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you do have an administration in office, whatever you think
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of it, that is very hawkish on immigration, very hawkish
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on the border, and also just generally you know, not
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only wants to clamp down on a legal immigration, but
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I think is more questioning of legal immigration as well.
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I think, so these are all things I think that
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that that that that that go into it. But again,
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the basic the basic story has been the same for
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a long time. If you go back to I think
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nineteen forty or nineteen fifty, I mean New York had
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more than forty had more than forty house seats. Ohio
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I think had had as many as I think twenty
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five or twenty six. You know, Illinois had way more,
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Pennsylvania had way more. And so again it's not a
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new story. Again, the new piece of the story is
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California losing you know, COVID I think is also kind
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of a short term disruptive force that you know, the
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impact of that probably you know, declines over the course
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of the decade. And so we also have to remember
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that whatever the projections are now, And even you have
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different different sites you look at have different sorts of
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projections based on like the one year change versus the
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projecting the decade long change, et cetera. And so what
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we think of the change is now probably won't be
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what they actually are come twenty thirty. But again, the
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basic trend line is clearer.
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Yeah.
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I mean, one of the things to bring that home
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is that in the mid nineteen seventies, all the crisis
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of New York, the bankruptcy of New York City and
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the rising taxes and the rising crime really caused a
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late decade emptying out of New York, which is the
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I think when they lost five house seats in one decade.
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And it could very well be that there's a late
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decadal negative or positive, uh you know shift in one
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of these states that's losing domestic population, you know, like California,
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uh is regularly has domestic out migration. And that's one
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of the questions I want to ask you about. You
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know that American citizens leave California and they're made up
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or more than made up by immigrants coming in. But
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who knows whether or not there's going to be some
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new industry that develops or some sort of decision to
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give tax breaks to companies that relocate within the state,
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you know, like from high cost Bay Area to lower
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costs the Central Valley. That helps stop that out migration.
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We just don't really know.
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Yeah, yeah, and again I think that you know, we're
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also just you know, we're coming into going into the
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second year of this of the you know, the second
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Trump administration and sort of how the immigration story plays out.
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But you know, one of the other changes, and not
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an expert on this, but it just pops into mind,
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is that, you know, the United States kind of liberalized
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its immigration laws in the nineteen sixties, and that had
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a change in terms of you know, you went from
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sort of a high immigration period in the late eighteen
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hundreds and early nineteen hundreds. You know, a lot of
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people from Eastern and Southern Europe. I mean, you know,
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my last name conduct Hungarians that came over around that time,
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and that particularly in big cities in the in the
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Midwest and the northeast, you know, lots of Italians, Eastern Europeans, Russians,
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you know, whatever. And then that that sort of you know,
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the government sort of turned that valve off in the
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twenties after World War One, and then you know kind
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of change, you know, kind of reopened things in the
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nineteen sixties, and you know, we haven't had legislation like
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that necessarily, but again you have had a very powkish
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administration on immigration, and so you know, what are the
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ripple effects of that that'll probably have an impact on
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these numbers over the course of the rest of the
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decade beyond what's going on you know, domestic.
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Yeah, I mean, I too am an eighteen eighties month
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that between the Norwegian side or the Irish side or
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the German side. All of my great grandparents emigrated through
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Ellis Island and stayed in New York City area in
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that period, and obviously that got shut off. You know
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that there are no more Norwegians in Bay Ridge where
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it once was a very Norwegian area.
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Yeah, yeah, And yeah, there's a there's a I don't know,
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there's a family story, perhaps apocryphal that I don't know,
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one of my relatives like came over for a wedding
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and basically stayed, So you know, I mean just I mean,
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it was also kind of a you know, a kind
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of the wild wild West in terms of immigration. Enforcement
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again certainly different than today.
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I mean, to put it in perspective, the Brennan Center
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head breaks it down by the four census regions, and
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after the nineteen sixty census, two hundred and forty two
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of the four hundred and thirty five House seats were
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either in the Northeast or the Midwest slash Plain states.
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So yeah, it's a clear majority. If the projections are
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true that it will be one hundred and sixty nine,
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only five more than the South. And that just shows
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over seventy years. And I was born in nineteen sixty one,
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so literally, over the course of my lifetime, you've gone
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from a national politics that is built around how do
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you win the old industry of the Northeast and the
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Midwest to how do you carry the South and enough
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of the rest From a Republican standpoint, how do you
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carry the South and enough of the rest of the
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country to hold on? Whereas from the democratic perspective, it's
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how do you combine the Northeast at the west coast
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and various outposts to hold on. It's a completely different
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set of politics.
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Yeah, I mean, if you think about like the you know,
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like the nineteen sixty or nineteen seventy six presidential elections.
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First of all, there were way more states that were
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actually competitive, and so like the famous like Richard Nixon,
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you know, fifty States strategy and all that, that actually that
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kind of made some sense because most, you know, the
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vast majority of the states were actually competitive and like
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all the big ones were and voted pretty similar to
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similarly to the nation, you know, compared to now where
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you only really have a handful of of swing states.
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But you know, I do still think the Midwest is
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still at the center of the electoral map, although the
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one kind of you know, obviously if these census projections
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are accurate. You know, basically, if you take Trump's twenty
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twenty four map and you put it in for a
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Republican in twenty thirty two, I think he would gain
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eleven electoral votes and the Democrats would lose eleven electoral votes.
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And you know, some of those are in like wisconsinslated
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to lose a seat, you know, that's a that's a
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that's a classic swing seat, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, all
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adding you know, those were kind of bat those were
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big battlegrounds in twenty twenty four. You know, California, New York,
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Illinois losing that hurts Democrats, Texas and Florida gaining that
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helps Republicans. One way to look at it, I think
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is a shorthand is that you know, remember in twenty
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twenty four, we kept talking about the sort of northern
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route for Kamala Harris. It was like she witch she
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wins basically all the twenty sixteen Clinton electoral votes, you know,
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maybe you know with that doesn't need Nevada but needs
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Nebraska second congressional district, and then Harris wins in addition
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to that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That gets her to
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two seventy on the nose. So that was sort of
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the path we talked about, and actually, had she won barely,
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that's what the map would have looked like because her
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three closest states were Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. By twenty
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thirty two, that won't be a path for Democrat anymore.
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They'll need at least one more state. I think it's
246
00:12:31.919 --> 00:12:34.879
Georgia based on our understanding of things now, and Georgia
247
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was only a little bit bigger of a Republican margin.
248
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I think Trump in Pennsylvania by one point seven. I
249
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think he won Georgia by two point two, and I
250
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can imagine by the time we get to the twenty thirties,
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given the trajectory of our politics, I can actually imagine
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Georgia voting to the left of those three states anyway.
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So it's just, you know, it does make it harder
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for Democrats to win, but Georgia is right. There is
255
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going I think, from a sort of a luxury from
256
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Joe Biden in twenty twenty to a necessity for the
257
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nominee in twenty thirty two. That's kind of the shorthand
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I look at.
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Yeah, and that was going to be the question that
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I was going to ask, is that if these projections
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will be wrong in some way or another, but barring
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the sort of historic miss in twenty twenty where the
263
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projections were dramatically off because of whatever did with the census,
264
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they'll only be off on the margin. You like California
265
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losing two seats instead of four seats. However you cut it,
266
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deep red seats will gain, deep blue seats will lose.
267
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And the whole idea that you can win back the
268
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Clinton states or win the you know, reassemble the Obama coalition.
269
00:13:44.720 --> 00:13:47.639
Remember he won all three of those states, plus Ohio
270
00:13:47.720 --> 00:13:51.120
and Iowa. What does that mean for the people in
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00:13:51.159 --> 00:13:54.879
the Democratic Party who say you have to compete for
272
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the blue collar vote if there's no path to the
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presidency by appealing to the former Obama now Trump voting
274
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blue collar whites, does that mean that those people have
275
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no leg to stand on after the twenty twenty eight election,
276
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that it will deeply weaken their position. So like a
277
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Josh Shapiro, you know, the Josh Shapiro of twenty thirty two,
278
00:14:15.120 --> 00:14:19.639
suddenly is less quote unquote electable according to the elite
279
00:14:19.720 --> 00:14:23.720
calculations than say a Rafael Warnock, should he still be
280
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a senator from Georgia.
281
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I still think that those Midwest states are going to
282
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be crucial to the path. It's just that they won't
283
00:14:31.320 --> 00:14:33.799
necessarily be enough, and so you're going to have to,
284
00:14:34.120 --> 00:14:37.519
you know, again, not just you know, I still think Wisconsin, Michigan,
285
00:14:37.519 --> 00:14:39.159
and Pennsylvania are going to be at the heart of
286
00:14:39.799 --> 00:14:41.799
a winning Democrats' coalition. It's just it's got to be
287
00:14:41.799 --> 00:14:42.879
a little bit more than that. It's got to be
288
00:14:42.960 --> 00:14:44.600
you know, like kind of what Biden did in twenty twenty.
289
00:14:44.679 --> 00:14:46.559
You know, you won those states. You know, he won
290
00:14:46.559 --> 00:14:49.600
Georgia and Arizona, Nevada as well. You know, you don't
291
00:14:49.600 --> 00:14:51.440
have to win all those states as Democrat, but you're
292
00:14:51.440 --> 00:14:53.879
going to have to you know, cut into that, you
293
00:14:53.919 --> 00:14:56.320
know that that foursome of of you know, it's kind
294
00:14:56.320 --> 00:14:59.679
of sun Belt competitive states, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada.
295
00:14:59.720 --> 00:15:01.080
The other thing too, is, you know, we do have
296
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you know, Trump is you know, Trump's gonna talk about
297
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being on the ballot in twenty twenty eight and joking
298
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about or Whateverbody's not because the constitution for mids that
299
00:15:08.799 --> 00:15:11.519
I'm doing so unless our understanding of that changes, so
300
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you're gonna have a new you know, you're gonna have
301
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new nominees on the well, at least on the Republican side.
302
00:15:15.919 --> 00:15:17.480
I don't know, maybe Kama Ris comes back on the
303
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Democratic side, but you know it could be. The twenty
304
00:15:21.320 --> 00:15:23.799
twenty eight is sort of another you know, things change
305
00:15:23.840 --> 00:15:26.960
a little bit, you know, maybe the coalitions are different.
306
00:15:27.039 --> 00:15:29.480
Maybe states that we think of as being not competitive
307
00:15:30.200 --> 00:15:32.000
all of a sudden get competitive over the course of
308
00:15:32.000 --> 00:15:34.799
the next half a decade or what have you. And
309
00:15:34.840 --> 00:15:37.399
maybe it scrambles our understanding of this, but you know
310
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the bottom line is that based on our understanding of
311
00:15:39.559 --> 00:15:42.639
the electoral map, now the you know, the Republicans have
312
00:15:42.679 --> 00:15:44.600
a little bit easier of a path after twenty thirty
313
00:15:44.840 --> 00:15:47.240
than they do now. But it doesn't change a ton
314
00:15:47.279 --> 00:15:49.840
because you could say, oh, well, you know, eleven electoral
315
00:15:49.919 --> 00:15:52.639
votes that's a lot. Well yeah it is. But again,
316
00:15:53.080 --> 00:15:57.480
Georgia or North Carolina that is enough to you know,
317
00:15:57.519 --> 00:16:00.480
to make up for that. I think actually, Zona would
318
00:16:00.519 --> 00:16:04.000
be two. Arizona's going to have a twelve, There's going
319
00:16:04.039 --> 00:16:08.360
to gain one based on these projections. So now, you know,
320
00:16:09.519 --> 00:16:13.360
so it matters, but it's not some sort of earthshaking thing.
321
00:16:13.360 --> 00:16:15.759
It's not like, oh, well the Democrats can't win the
322
00:16:15.799 --> 00:16:18.840
presidency in twenty third two. That's like going way way overboard.
323
00:16:18.840 --> 00:16:21.879
I think, yeah, no, I think that's absolutely right that
324
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it's changed. It a is part of a decadal multidecadal thing,
325
00:16:29.320 --> 00:16:32.039
and two it does make things harder, but it far
326
00:16:32.080 --> 00:16:34.120
from makes things impossible.
327
00:16:33.559 --> 00:16:35.399
For Democrats, that's right.
328
00:16:35.799 --> 00:16:38.440
What about the intrat state issues, you know, is that
329
00:16:38.480 --> 00:16:41.279
one of the things we're seeing is a continued depopulation
330
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or subpopulation of rural areas, and even in the states
331
00:16:44.840 --> 00:16:47.679
that are gaining, you know, rural Texas will be less
332
00:16:47.679 --> 00:16:51.320
important than the metroplex and DFW or the massive growth
333
00:16:51.320 --> 00:16:56.279
around the Austin San Antonio, two separate metropolitan areas and
334
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two separate media markets but fast growing towards each other,
335
00:17:00.519 --> 00:17:05.839
which will mean either massive bacon mandering of you know,
336
00:17:05.920 --> 00:17:09.359
taking these suburban less red areas and putting them into
337
00:17:10.319 --> 00:17:13.000
deep red rural areas to maintain their influence, or it
338
00:17:13.039 --> 00:17:16.480
means like within the Republican Party, a less a lower
339
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influence of rural base areas and a greater appreciation even
340
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in red states for suburban areas.
341
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Yeah, you'll probably will see that to some extent in
342
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the you know, in the redistrict thing that goes on
343
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after the census, because you know, the places that are
344
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growing are you know, generally not necessarily the urban cores
345
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of these places, but sort of suburbs and exerbs. You know,
346
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if you look at like the fastest growing places in
347
00:17:40.240 --> 00:17:42.440
the United States, I didn't I didn't look at it
348
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specifically for this year, but I've looked at it in
349
00:17:44.640 --> 00:17:46.759
past years, and you know, a lot of the counties
350
00:17:46.799 --> 00:17:50.599
are like the the like deep dark red like exurban
351
00:17:50.640 --> 00:17:54.200
counties around DFW, so not even like you know, Tarrant
352
00:17:54.240 --> 00:17:56.279
County where Fort Worth is, but some of some of
353
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the others that are sort of adjacent to the exurban counties,
354
00:17:59.839 --> 00:18:02.799
and a number of the kind of retiree heavy counties
355
00:18:02.839 --> 00:18:06.799
in Florida. You know, one one reason that I've sort
356
00:18:06.799 --> 00:18:10.720
of been again, you know, the idea of Democrats truly
357
00:18:10.720 --> 00:18:13.359
competing in Texas and Florida really took a big hit
358
00:18:13.400 --> 00:18:15.319
in twenty twenty four because both those states have sort
359
00:18:15.319 --> 00:18:18.000
of zoomed through the right, particularly in that election. But
360
00:18:18.720 --> 00:18:21.519
if one of them were to be competitive in future years,
361
00:18:21.559 --> 00:18:24.160
I would actually would think it'd be Texas because I
362
00:18:24.200 --> 00:18:26.880
feel like the growth in Florida has generally been more
363
00:18:26.920 --> 00:18:29.160
like retirees who are probably you know, kind of older
364
00:18:29.160 --> 00:18:31.960
and more conservative, and Texas is sort of bringing in,
365
00:18:32.880 --> 00:18:35.240
you know, and the places in Florida that are growing
366
00:18:35.319 --> 00:18:37.519
or sort of retiree areas, but you know, Texas has
367
00:18:37.559 --> 00:18:40.680
growth all over the place. And also some of those
368
00:18:41.160 --> 00:18:44.400
you know, extremely red exurban counties are not quite as
369
00:18:44.400 --> 00:18:47.119
red as they used to be as they grow, and
370
00:18:47.200 --> 00:18:49.079
so maybe there's a little bit of promise there. But again,
371
00:18:49.119 --> 00:18:52.000
they're both, you know, they're both kind of red states,
372
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and our understanding of things right now.
373
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I guess the last thing I want to mention about
374
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this is that the Census Bureau is always updating how
375
00:19:06.319 --> 00:19:12.000
it addresses international migration, trying to deal with first they
376
00:19:12.079 --> 00:19:15.359
had to address change the way they addest it to
377
00:19:15.440 --> 00:19:21.359
reflect the unprecedented swing of people in through the what
378
00:19:21.400 --> 00:19:25.480
Republicans called catch and release, and what was the Democrats
379
00:19:25.519 --> 00:19:31.039
would note was a either special waiver programs or various
380
00:19:31.079 --> 00:19:37.200
types of asylum grants, and so consequently dramatically increase the
381
00:19:37.279 --> 00:19:40.599
number of people in their twenty twenty four estimates. And
382
00:19:40.640 --> 00:19:43.720
this time the Census Bureau says, you know, because of
383
00:19:43.759 --> 00:19:46.680
the new enforcement, they've just changed it again. And what
384
00:19:46.720 --> 00:19:51.039
they found is a dramatic decrease in net international migration,
385
00:19:52.119 --> 00:19:57.279
which counts both net outflow of non legal migrants and
386
00:19:57.400 --> 00:20:00.039
net inflow of legal migrants, so that it was the
387
00:20:00.079 --> 00:20:03.559
lowest level in many, many years, the net migration. And
388
00:20:05.160 --> 00:20:08.160
this was only with five months of the Trump administration.
389
00:20:08.319 --> 00:20:10.880
Seven of the months of this estimate, because it's a
390
00:20:10.920 --> 00:20:14.680
mid year estimate, included the Biden era policies, and so
391
00:20:14.720 --> 00:20:17.359
they said it may very well be a net negative
392
00:20:17.720 --> 00:20:23.759
international migration as soon as next year's projections if the
393
00:20:23.759 --> 00:20:29.920
Trump administration does succeed in ramping up its deportation and
394
00:20:29.960 --> 00:20:35.559
self deportation programs while also reducing legal migration, either through
395
00:20:35.599 --> 00:20:39.240
restricting student visas or the price on H one b's,
396
00:20:40.160 --> 00:20:43.920
what do you think that's going to do to the population. Certainly,
397
00:20:44.039 --> 00:20:46.480
some red states like Florida and Texas get a lot
398
00:20:46.480 --> 00:20:50.519
of international migration, not all of it legal, but California
399
00:20:50.519 --> 00:20:53.119
and New York get quite a bit of international migration
400
00:20:53.200 --> 00:20:56.799
as well. If you really did have this crackdown show
401
00:20:56.920 --> 00:20:59.200
up as early as next year or certainly over the
402
00:20:59.240 --> 00:21:01.359
remainder of the Trump turn what do you think would
403
00:21:01.400 --> 00:21:03.440
be the effect of that on these projections.
404
00:21:04.000 --> 00:21:06.640
Yeah, I think it might redound to the benefit of
405
00:21:06.640 --> 00:21:08.880
the Midwest because if you think about too, like the
406
00:21:08.920 --> 00:21:12.079
states that have sort of the higher percentage of people
407
00:21:12.119 --> 00:21:14.000
who were who live in a state who were born there.
408
00:21:14.079 --> 00:21:17.319
I mean that the Midwest, it's it's generally like seventy
409
00:21:17.319 --> 00:21:19.680
five percent. You know, in some of the Sun Belt
410
00:21:19.680 --> 00:21:22.440
states it's more like fifty percent. And again that's not
411
00:21:22.640 --> 00:21:25.400
just that could be you know, someone from Indiana moves
412
00:21:25.440 --> 00:21:28.880
to Ohio, moves from Ohio Indiana. That's that's got nothing
413
00:21:28.880 --> 00:21:33.960
to do with international you know, immigration, but so but
414
00:21:33.960 --> 00:21:35.960
but you know, you would think the states that had
415
00:21:36.000 --> 00:21:38.799
just the sort of have you know, haven't grown as
416
00:21:38.839 --> 00:21:41.720
much because of immigration, would then be more insulated from
417
00:21:41.839 --> 00:21:44.039
changes because of immigration. And you know, they are only
418
00:21:44.039 --> 00:21:46.440
four and thirty five house seats to move around. So
419
00:21:46.680 --> 00:21:48.519
if a certain place doesn't grow as much as you
420
00:21:48.559 --> 00:21:51.640
think it would, well that has to benefit someone somewhere else.
421
00:21:51.640 --> 00:21:53.599
So you know, if you look at the projections right now,
422
00:21:54.000 --> 00:21:56.079
you know, Pennsylvania is supposed to lose a house seat.
423
00:21:56.279 --> 00:21:59.240
Ohio's lost for years or decades and decades, but Ohio
424
00:21:59.319 --> 00:22:02.400
is not currently to lose a house seat, which would
425
00:22:02.400 --> 00:22:05.480
be i think the first time in probably many decades.
426
00:22:06.640 --> 00:22:10.920
You know, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota. You know, maybe maybe that's
427
00:22:10.960 --> 00:22:14.799
the difference between you know, Wisconsin losing a house seat
428
00:22:15.000 --> 00:22:17.160
or keeping it, you know, because again we're probably i mean,
429
00:22:17.200 --> 00:22:19.759
even though the absolute numbers of people were talking about
430
00:22:19.799 --> 00:22:22.279
are you know, you're thinking of of you know, tens
431
00:22:22.279 --> 00:22:24.000
of thousands of people, but you know, in the in
432
00:22:24.039 --> 00:22:26.400
the grand sweep of the whole population of the country,
433
00:22:26.599 --> 00:22:29.599
it's not that many, so you wouldn't expect something dramatic.
434
00:22:29.640 --> 00:22:32.640
But like if we get to twenty thirty one and
435
00:22:32.680 --> 00:22:35.880
the reapportionment comes out, and you know, maybe Texas and
436
00:22:35.920 --> 00:22:40.079
Florida don't you know, don't gain an extra you know,
437
00:22:40.119 --> 00:22:42.319
they gain one few receipts than we think, or maybe
438
00:22:42.400 --> 00:22:45.799
California loses one additional one and you know, maybe the
439
00:22:45.880 --> 00:22:50.720
Midwest is not as affected. Maybe that sort of what's
440
00:22:50.759 --> 00:22:52.680
going on going on right now could have an impact there.
441
00:22:53.160 --> 00:22:54.960
Yeah, now I think that makes perfect sense. And I'm
442
00:22:54.960 --> 00:22:58.720
sure Rhode Island is praying that it won't lose its
443
00:22:58.759 --> 00:22:59.359
second seat.
444
00:22:59.440 --> 00:23:01.440
That was another that was another thing that seemed like
445
00:23:01.519 --> 00:23:03.759
kind of almost like a certainty in the last decades
446
00:23:03.799 --> 00:23:06.799
projections was that Rhode Island's gonna lose, and they didn't,
447
00:23:06.880 --> 00:23:09.359
and now they're you know, they're slated lose again. Another
448
00:23:09.400 --> 00:23:11.759
interesting one is Oregon, which is added a seat, is
449
00:23:11.799 --> 00:23:15.000
now slated to lose its seat, and you know, you
450
00:23:15.039 --> 00:23:17.640
could sort of think a little bit about what the
451
00:23:17.640 --> 00:23:20.240
effects on the House would be. You know, if a
452
00:23:20.319 --> 00:23:24.759
state like Idaho adds a seat Idaho, actually you don't
453
00:23:24.759 --> 00:23:27.799
think about congressional redistricting in Idaho, but it actually has
454
00:23:27.799 --> 00:23:30.319
a commission system. But I think it'd be pretty hard
455
00:23:30.319 --> 00:23:34.599
to draw a competitive seat in Iowa, I mean in Idaho.
456
00:23:34.720 --> 00:23:37.519
I mean, but you know, Idaho has been sort of
457
00:23:37.519 --> 00:23:39.359
on the watch list because it really is a very
458
00:23:39.359 --> 00:23:42.519
fast growing state and you know, we think of Utah
459
00:23:42.559 --> 00:23:44.200
as being the kind of the Mormon hub of the
460
00:23:44.279 --> 00:23:46.839
United States, which it is, but there's a very substantial
461
00:23:46.920 --> 00:23:51.279
Mormon population in Idaho. It's growing population. I was actually
462
00:23:51.279 --> 00:23:53.000
looking to see if you just had sort of like
463
00:23:53.039 --> 00:23:57.519
a Boise centered house seat, if it would be competitive,
464
00:23:57.519 --> 00:24:00.160
because Ada County, where Boise is is, I think up
465
00:24:00.160 --> 00:24:01.640
on it by like ten points, but it was much
466
00:24:01.680 --> 00:24:05.960
closer in twenty twenty. But it's also it's not it's
467
00:24:05.960 --> 00:24:07.559
not close to being big enough to have a single
468
00:24:07.599 --> 00:24:10.400
congressional district, so you'd have, you know, surrounding areas that
469
00:24:10.400 --> 00:24:12.279
would that would make it reder, So that would not
470
00:24:12.359 --> 00:24:14.160
be a I don't think that you'd have a competitive
471
00:24:14.200 --> 00:24:17.519
seat in that state. You know, you've also got states
472
00:24:17.559 --> 00:24:21.720
that have our current Republican jerrymanders, like Texas and Florida,
473
00:24:22.559 --> 00:24:26.039
they would be adding seats. Can Republicans add those seats
474
00:24:26.079 --> 00:24:29.039
presuming they're still in charge, can they add those seats
475
00:24:29.079 --> 00:24:32.160
in such a way that's beneficial to them? So a
476
00:24:31.880 --> 00:24:33.559
lot of a lot of things to think about. Then,
477
00:24:33.599 --> 00:24:36.680
you know, California is interesting because it's like California just
478
00:24:36.720 --> 00:24:39.319
redrew in a you know, quote unquote temporary way, or
479
00:24:39.319 --> 00:24:40.880
at least that's what the the law says, and that
480
00:24:40.960 --> 00:24:44.599
the the the commissioner come back. So not only would
481
00:24:44.640 --> 00:24:47.839
you have this Democratic jerrymander that hypothetically would go away
482
00:24:47.839 --> 00:24:50.319
and be replaced by the commission map, but they'd also
483
00:24:50.359 --> 00:24:52.680
have to eliminate several seats, so you'd have some new
484
00:24:53.079 --> 00:24:55.839
members who either would be in more competitive districts or
485
00:24:55.839 --> 00:24:59.880
Republican leaning districts for that matter, or they'd be eliminated altogether.
486
00:25:00.200 --> 00:25:03.119
And what does that do is you know, do Democrats
487
00:25:03.119 --> 00:25:05.240
say decide to go back to the public and say, well,
488
00:25:05.279 --> 00:25:06.799
actually we should just get rid of the commissions of
489
00:25:06.839 --> 00:25:11.119
some all together. So you know, that's a that's another
490
00:25:11.119 --> 00:25:14.359
thing that's just interesting to think about, as is the fallout,
491
00:25:14.440 --> 00:25:15.640
you know, that just fallout from this.
492
00:25:16.599 --> 00:25:19.279
Well, as you just mentioned, there have been mid Dick
493
00:25:19.319 --> 00:25:23.519
hadle redistrict things and you can't tell the players without
494
00:25:23.559 --> 00:25:27.880
a scorecard, and you and the Crystal Ball have provided one,
495
00:25:27.920 --> 00:25:29.880
which is to say, in your most recent issue, you
496
00:25:30.119 --> 00:25:36.319
came up with a new listing of Democratic seats that
497
00:25:36.599 --> 00:25:39.880
were carried by Trump and Republican seats that were carried
498
00:25:39.960 --> 00:25:44.720
by Harris, that the Republican jerry manders mid Dick Hadel
499
00:25:44.799 --> 00:25:48.720
and Democratic counter jerry manders, plus the one judge who
500
00:25:48.759 --> 00:25:52.839
decided to actually enforce Utah's law, there by creating a
501
00:25:52.880 --> 00:25:56.319
safe seat for the Democrats. Added to that, why don't
502
00:25:56.319 --> 00:25:59.480
you walk my listeners through what you found and what
503
00:25:59.559 --> 00:26:02.920
the net effect of this seems to have been, knowing
504
00:26:02.960 --> 00:26:06.680
that there are still potentials for other mid decatal redistrictings,
505
00:26:06.720 --> 00:26:08.440
particularly Florida and Virginia.
506
00:26:08.680 --> 00:26:10.839
Yeah, following the twenty twenty four election, and based on
507
00:26:10.920 --> 00:26:12.920
the districts that were in place in twenty twenty four,
508
00:26:13.359 --> 00:26:16.680
there were thirteen Democrats elected from Trump one districts and
509
00:26:16.799 --> 00:26:20.160
just three Republicans elected from Kamala Harris one districts. If
510
00:26:20.160 --> 00:26:22.720
you sort of, you know, if you look at the
511
00:26:22.759 --> 00:26:26.200
maps now and you you know, you assign the incumbents
512
00:26:26.240 --> 00:26:28.880
in some cases the districts that have become vastly different,
513
00:26:28.960 --> 00:26:31.240
but and you know, some people are just going to
514
00:26:31.319 --> 00:26:37.279
leave those districts behind. But there are now sixteen Trump District,
515
00:26:37.400 --> 00:26:41.240
Trump Trump District, or Trump Democratic districts, and there are
516
00:26:41.279 --> 00:26:44.559
eight Harris Republican districts. Now, many of those are going
517
00:26:44.640 --> 00:26:47.319
to flip to their natural presidential party in the twenty
518
00:26:47.319 --> 00:26:50.240
twenty sixth election. You know, you mentioned Utah that there's
519
00:26:50.279 --> 00:26:52.599
a new seat in Salt Lake that Harris carried by
520
00:26:52.599 --> 00:26:54.880
over twenty points. That's not going to be winnable for
521
00:26:55.200 --> 00:26:58.319
a Republican, Nor will Republicans even try to really contest that.
522
00:26:58.359 --> 00:27:01.079
I don't think, so a lot of these districts will
523
00:27:01.079 --> 00:27:03.359
go away. And what I'm curious about is, you know,
524
00:27:03.480 --> 00:27:06.039
I'm expecting the Democrat. I think the Democrats are favored
525
00:27:06.079 --> 00:27:07.720
to win the House based on what we know now.
526
00:27:08.960 --> 00:27:11.319
And you know, back in twenty eighteen when they flipped
527
00:27:11.319 --> 00:27:13.000
the House and they won two hundred and thirty five
528
00:27:13.000 --> 00:27:17.119
House seats. After that election, they held thirty one districts
529
00:27:17.119 --> 00:27:21.039
that Trump had carried in twenty sixteen and Republicans held
530
00:27:21.079 --> 00:27:24.759
only three Hillary Clinton won districts, which is a pretty
531
00:27:24.839 --> 00:27:27.319
huge disparity. And then what the presidential election does is
532
00:27:27.359 --> 00:27:30.920
it usually contracts that that number so you had, you know,
533
00:27:30.960 --> 00:27:33.319
some of the like like a Max Rose on Staten
534
00:27:33.359 --> 00:27:36.559
Island or Kendra Horne in Oklahoma City, or Joe Cunningham
535
00:27:36.559 --> 00:27:39.759
and South Carolina. You know, they were Democrats who won
536
00:27:39.799 --> 00:27:42.359
these double digit Trump districts and then they ended up
537
00:27:42.400 --> 00:27:45.680
losing in twenty twenty under you know, under worst circumstances,
538
00:27:45.680 --> 00:27:48.240
they generally were competitive, but it was hard for them
539
00:27:48.240 --> 00:27:52.160
to win. You also had, you know, a significant number
540
00:27:52.200 --> 00:27:55.640
of those Democrats in Trump districts. Those districts voted for Biden,
541
00:27:55.759 --> 00:27:58.319
and so they were no longer these outliers. You know,
542
00:27:58.400 --> 00:28:01.279
you used to have maybe twenty five thirty percent of
543
00:28:01.279 --> 00:28:03.640
the House of people who were in districts that their
544
00:28:03.680 --> 00:28:06.720
party didn't win for president. You know, now it's you know,
545
00:28:06.839 --> 00:28:09.160
it was sixteen in the last election, and it was
546
00:28:09.200 --> 00:28:12.200
sixteen in the election before that. So you know that's
547
00:28:12.200 --> 00:28:14.480
only what is that six or seven percent of the
548
00:28:14.480 --> 00:28:17.039
whole membership of the House or something. But yeah, so
549
00:28:17.039 --> 00:28:19.839
so the this these tallies have been changed, and they're
550
00:28:19.839 --> 00:28:22.400
going to change more, probably because if Virginia is able
551
00:28:22.440 --> 00:28:25.160
to get it's new Democrat Jerrymander through, there's still some
552
00:28:25.319 --> 00:28:27.079
hoops they need to jump through. That that is up
553
00:28:27.119 --> 00:28:32.799
in the air. That's going to create four additional Harris
554
00:28:32.799 --> 00:28:38.000
District Republicans. Florida may very well convert some you know
555
00:28:38.119 --> 00:28:42.720
Harris District Democrats into Trump one seats. There may be
556
00:28:42.799 --> 00:28:45.559
you know, there there may be other redistrict things that happened.
557
00:28:46.480 --> 00:28:48.039
So we'll have to see what the tally is at
558
00:28:48.039 --> 00:28:50.039
the end of redistrict thing, and then we'll we'll have
559
00:28:50.079 --> 00:28:52.119
to adjust it when we actually get the results in November.
560
00:28:53.119 --> 00:28:57.240
Oh gosh, actual results rather than just prognosticating based off
561
00:28:57.240 --> 00:28:57.960
of data. Heaven.
562
00:28:58.119 --> 00:29:02.119
Yeah, it's you know, it's what is it, uh, you know,
563
00:29:02.240 --> 00:29:04.599
seven hundred and twenty days of talking and then one
564
00:29:04.680 --> 00:29:07.559
day of action or whatever and then been another seven
565
00:29:07.640 --> 00:29:08.759
hundred and twenty days of talking.
566
00:29:08.799 --> 00:29:10.880
That's what That's what people like you and me to Henry.
567
00:29:11.359 --> 00:29:13.720
Yeah. Well, yeah, there's a market for the talking.
568
00:29:13.680 --> 00:29:16.160
There is, absolutely, Yeah, absolutely, and there's a lot and
569
00:29:16.200 --> 00:29:18.319
particularly once you get real results, there's a lot to
570
00:29:18.359 --> 00:29:22.359
talk about. And also for as unseemly as the redistricting
571
00:29:22.440 --> 00:29:25.839
thing is. And that's you know, it's been a very
572
00:29:25.880 --> 00:29:28.400
interesting topic and it's been very interesting to follow.
573
00:29:28.759 --> 00:29:31.200
Yeah. One of the things I've found interesting in the
574
00:29:31.240 --> 00:29:36.200
redistricting is you know, most analysis goes on the most
575
00:29:36.200 --> 00:29:38.480
recent presidential race for you know, very good reason. But
576
00:29:39.480 --> 00:29:42.000
you know, as you've pointed out in Crystal Ball, a
577
00:29:42.039 --> 00:29:45.079
lot of the Texas seats are they seem to have
578
00:29:45.119 --> 00:29:49.119
big Trump margins, but they actually don't have Trump margins.
579
00:29:49.200 --> 00:29:52.119
When you talk about the twenty twenty race with bikes,
580
00:29:53.000 --> 00:29:56.480
they don't have cruise margins in twenty eighteen, which is
581
00:29:56.480 --> 00:30:00.119
a Democratic year. And in California, one of the things
582
00:30:00.160 --> 00:30:02.359
I look at is that it's been quite clear in
583
00:30:02.400 --> 00:30:05.039
the Trump era that Trump numbers are not predictive of
584
00:30:05.079 --> 00:30:07.799
down ballot results. And so I looked at the Newsome
585
00:30:07.880 --> 00:30:10.920
numbers and the Democratic Jerrymander, who's good enough that not
586
00:30:10.960 --> 00:30:16.920
a there's not a single seat that Harris carried that
587
00:30:17.400 --> 00:30:21.079
Newsome loss, But some of them Novembers are very very close.
588
00:30:21.119 --> 00:30:24.440
They're like news In getting fifty one percent in a
589
00:30:24.519 --> 00:30:27.960
forced two person rays, as you know. And so you
590
00:30:28.000 --> 00:30:30.240
look and you say, maybe some of these seats that
591
00:30:30.319 --> 00:30:34.440
look out of reach could be won by a strong
592
00:30:34.519 --> 00:30:37.000
Republican with a with a weak Democrat.
593
00:30:37.480 --> 00:30:38.960
Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, in particular, you
594
00:30:38.960 --> 00:30:41.319
look at you know, I think that the two sort
595
00:30:41.319 --> 00:30:44.279
of most in question California seats for Democrats to flip,
596
00:30:44.359 --> 00:30:47.519
or David Valdeo's seat. Of course, he's he's actually still
597
00:30:47.559 --> 00:30:49.880
in a Trump seat. I mean the Trump number got reduced.
598
00:30:50.079 --> 00:30:52.480
That's also a district that would have voted easily for Biden.
599
00:30:52.519 --> 00:30:54.079
I don't remember the number off the top of my head,
600
00:30:54.079 --> 00:30:56.960
but you know that whole Central Valley region really swung
601
00:30:57.000 --> 00:30:58.880
towards Trump, just like just like so many other kind
602
00:30:58.880 --> 00:31:02.839
of Latino heavy areas did. Valdeo is is a very
603
00:31:02.880 --> 00:31:07.240
cagey incumbent. And then also there's this new California forty eight,
604
00:31:07.319 --> 00:31:09.640
which is it goes from kind of like Inland San
605
00:31:09.680 --> 00:31:11.640
Diego all the way up to Palm Springs. And that's
606
00:31:11.759 --> 00:31:14.039
a district that darryl Issa is going to try to defend.
607
00:31:15.079 --> 00:31:18.960
And that's a district that I think either Knewsome loss
608
00:31:18.960 --> 00:31:21.640
for governor in twenty twenty two or came or only
609
00:31:21.680 --> 00:31:23.119
won by a very small amount.
610
00:31:23.400 --> 00:31:26.119
It was an incredibly small amount of yeah Parris plus
611
00:31:26.160 --> 00:31:27.440
three according that's right.
612
00:31:27.519 --> 00:31:30.880
Yeah, So like that's you know, that's like probably likely
613
00:31:31.000 --> 00:31:33.240
to not to vote for Democrats, but not necessarily. And
614
00:31:33.240 --> 00:31:37.440
then you know in South Texas, there's the there are
615
00:31:37.480 --> 00:31:40.680
those South Texas seats, you know, Vicente Gozales, Democratic incumbent
616
00:31:40.720 --> 00:31:44.839
and Henry Quaar another Democratic incumbent, who I think are
617
00:31:44.880 --> 00:31:46.880
both you know, fifty to fifty or in the case
618
00:31:46.920 --> 00:31:48.720
of Quar, a little bit better than fifty to fifty
619
00:31:48.720 --> 00:31:50.680
to be able to hang on. So just be aware
620
00:31:50.759 --> 00:31:54.079
of like, oh, that the Republicans grab five seats in
621
00:31:54.119 --> 00:31:56.599
Texas and the Democrats grab five seats of California, like
622
00:31:56.599 --> 00:31:59.119
we gotta have the election first, you know. And the
623
00:31:59.119 --> 00:32:01.160
same thing is true that the Virginia map. I mean,
624
00:32:01.160 --> 00:32:04.519
it's designed to be ten to one democratic. It may
625
00:32:04.559 --> 00:32:07.599
not necessarily perform that way, or it may perform that
626
00:32:07.640 --> 00:32:09.720
way in twenty twenty six, but maybe it wouldn't perform
627
00:32:09.759 --> 00:32:10.839
that way in twenty twenty eight.
628
00:32:11.680 --> 00:32:15.319
I mean the change in Elaine Luria slash Jen Kiggins, sister,
629
00:32:15.440 --> 00:32:18.640
Can I say it that way? Because Kiggins beat Luria
630
00:32:18.960 --> 00:32:22.079
and now kick Luria is back for a remap from
631
00:32:22.160 --> 00:32:24.599
three tenths of a percent according to your number for
632
00:32:24.680 --> 00:32:27.400
Trump to one point three percent in favor of Parish.
633
00:32:27.400 --> 00:32:29.359
And that's a nice one and a half percent boost,
634
00:32:29.359 --> 00:32:33.680
but it's by no means a safe seat or.
635
00:32:33.680 --> 00:32:35.440
So it's it's I mean, that's a that's a that's
636
00:32:35.440 --> 00:32:37.279
a toss up on the old map or the new map.
637
00:32:37.359 --> 00:32:40.039
I mean again, you know, in this environment, maybe you'd
638
00:32:40.039 --> 00:32:42.240
give a little bit of an edge to Lauria, but
639
00:32:42.319 --> 00:32:44.000
it's it's a classic swing seat.
640
00:32:44.440 --> 00:32:44.599
You know.
641
00:32:44.720 --> 00:32:47.240
Unfortunately we don't we don't really have that many classic
642
00:32:47.279 --> 00:32:50.599
swing seats. And that's that's actually been another consequence of
643
00:32:50.599 --> 00:32:54.160
this redistrict thing is that the number of seats that
644
00:32:54.839 --> 00:32:57.240
vote you know, very similarly to the to the nation
645
00:32:57.359 --> 00:33:00.279
for president, that number was reduced because that's what you
646
00:33:00.359 --> 00:33:02.400
do in jerrymandering. And what what happened is you saw
647
00:33:02.480 --> 00:33:06.200
the the most competitive districts were number reduced and also
648
00:33:06.279 --> 00:33:09.680
the least competitive district were reduced. So there are you know,
649
00:33:10.240 --> 00:33:13.720
a few you know, fewer completely one hundred percent safe
650
00:33:13.759 --> 00:33:17.640
you know, Trump districts, and a fewer completely safe one
651
00:33:17.680 --> 00:33:21.200
hundred percent Harris districts. And you know, it's just it's
652
00:33:21.240 --> 00:33:25.079
just spreading out those voters, you know. I they kind
653
00:33:25.079 --> 00:33:26.839
of wish there was a better way to do redistricting
654
00:33:26.880 --> 00:33:29.279
the United States, but this is just where we're at
655
00:33:29.359 --> 00:33:31.400
right now. And I mean, actually, I think there had
656
00:33:31.440 --> 00:33:34.880
been kind of some progress made in terms of trying
657
00:33:34.920 --> 00:33:38.000
to make this process you know, non parties and biparties
658
00:33:38.000 --> 00:33:40.440
and less parties in et cetera. And a lot of
659
00:33:40.480 --> 00:33:43.480
that progress over the last several years is just completely
660
00:33:43.599 --> 00:33:47.599
binges reversed. And look, I also I freely grant that,
661
00:33:47.680 --> 00:33:52.960
like if you ask, you know, Republicans as to what
662
00:33:53.039 --> 00:33:56.680
redistricting criteria should be and what Democrats think fair redistricting
663
00:33:56.720 --> 00:34:00.400
criteria should be, they wouldn't agree on that either. So, like,
664
00:34:00.720 --> 00:34:03.880
you know, I get it. You know, Democrats hate the
665
00:34:03.880 --> 00:34:06.920
commission or Republicans hate the commission in California. You know,
666
00:34:07.000 --> 00:34:11.199
Democrats didn't like the commission system in Virginia. Like, you know,
667
00:34:11.360 --> 00:34:14.559
there are reasonable arguments here, but I just look at it.
668
00:34:14.559 --> 00:34:17.280
It's like there's gotta be a better way.
669
00:34:17.800 --> 00:34:20.960
Well, h Kyle, where can my listeners follow your work?
670
00:34:21.719 --> 00:34:24.280
Center for Politics dot org, backslash crystal Ball. You can
671
00:34:24.320 --> 00:34:26.199
sign up for the crystal Ball there. We also are
672
00:34:26.239 --> 00:34:29.199
on substack now, uh, you know, for for the time being,
673
00:34:29.239 --> 00:34:31.360
we're just you know, we're kind of cross posting.
674
00:34:31.920 --> 00:34:32.239
Uh uh.
675
00:34:32.480 --> 00:34:35.559
You know, it's the same posts in those places. But
676
00:34:36.280 --> 00:34:39.360
if you're a substack person, you prefer to subscribe over there.
677
00:34:39.639 --> 00:34:43.079
It's just Sabados, crystal Ball one word dot substack dot
678
00:34:43.159 --> 00:34:43.760
dot com.
679
00:34:44.079 --> 00:34:45.840
And where are you on social media?
680
00:34:45.960 --> 00:34:48.079
At k Condick, I'm still a you know, I'm still
681
00:34:48.119 --> 00:34:51.960
an x slash Twitter person and uh you know that's where.
682
00:34:51.760 --> 00:34:54.840
I'm conduct K O N D I K yeah, kk
683
00:34:54.960 --> 00:34:57.360
O n d I K. All right, Well, thank you
684
00:34:57.480 --> 00:34:59.320
very much for coming back, and I look forward to
685
00:34:59.360 --> 00:35:03.400
having you again in this great mighty election year. On
686
00:35:03.519 --> 00:35:04.280
beyond the polls.
687
00:35:04.840 --> 00:35:05.559
Thanks Henri.
688
00:35:14.199 --> 00:35:14.360
Well.
689
00:35:14.400 --> 00:35:15.800
This week on ADDA the Week, what I want to
690
00:35:15.840 --> 00:35:17.880
do is take you to the Lone Star State. There's
691
00:35:17.920 --> 00:35:21.559
a contentious primary going on in both sides for the
692
00:35:21.599 --> 00:35:23.599
Senate seat, but I want to take a look at
693
00:35:23.639 --> 00:35:28.599
the Democratic side right now between James Tallerico and Jasmine Crockett.
694
00:35:28.920 --> 00:35:32.320
That Tallarico is, as we've talked about on the show before,
695
00:35:32.400 --> 00:35:37.480
the somewhat more establishment for supported candidate. Jasmine Crockett has
696
00:35:38.079 --> 00:35:41.480
made a name of herself by being explosive on media
697
00:35:41.519 --> 00:35:46.119
and in social media and is the disruptor candidate. They're
698
00:35:46.159 --> 00:35:50.039
both pretty progressive. Crockett is positioning herself as a little
699
00:35:50.119 --> 00:35:54.360
more progressive, but it's as much a question of campaign
700
00:35:54.400 --> 00:35:58.639
strategy and attitude as it is issues. And what I
701
00:35:58.639 --> 00:36:00.480
want to do is show you three ads that are
702
00:36:00.559 --> 00:36:04.199
running right now. The first is going to be by Tallarico,
703
00:36:04.239 --> 00:36:06.639
the second is by Crockett, and the third is by
704
00:36:07.119 --> 00:36:10.800
a superpack that backs tall Rico. So let's first listen
705
00:36:10.840 --> 00:36:14.519
to Tallarico's current ad running on Texas television.
706
00:36:15.880 --> 00:36:20.239
Billionaires don't just influence politicians, they own them. That's why
707
00:36:20.280 --> 00:36:22.880
I don't take corporate pack money. It's why I thought
708
00:36:22.960 --> 00:36:28.039
to cat campaign contributions in the Senate. I'll ban billionaires
709
00:36:28.079 --> 00:36:32.480
from making unlimited secret donations. I'll scott members of Congress
710
00:36:32.559 --> 00:36:35.679
from trading stocks, and I'll raise taxes on those of
711
00:36:35.719 --> 00:36:38.320
the top to fund tax cuts for the rest of us.
712
00:36:39.159 --> 00:36:42.360
I'm James Tallerico, and I approved this message because our
713
00:36:42.360 --> 00:36:45.360
government should work for all of us, not just billionaires.
714
00:36:46.519 --> 00:36:49.599
Well, if you didn't know that he was in a
715
00:36:49.679 --> 00:36:54.440
contentious fight where poles show him. Some have him slightly heads,
716
00:36:54.480 --> 00:36:57.159
some have him slightly behind, but it's basically a fifty
717
00:36:57.159 --> 00:36:59.679
to fifty within the margin of air race, you wouldn't
718
00:36:59.679 --> 00:37:02.719
know it. This ad, This ad is kind of a
719
00:37:02.880 --> 00:37:07.239
classic positive spot. It's one where he is talking throughout
720
00:37:07.239 --> 00:37:13.199
the entire time. Sometimes he is on screen, so you're
721
00:37:13.239 --> 00:37:15.360
always seeing his face, but most of the ad when
722
00:37:15.360 --> 00:37:18.239
you're hearing his voice, he's not on screen, or he's
723
00:37:18.280 --> 00:37:21.000
on screen indirectly, because what you do is you hear
724
00:37:21.079 --> 00:37:25.000
him talking. But what's on the screen is people listening.
725
00:37:25.360 --> 00:37:28.519
And you've got people who are of black background and
726
00:37:28.599 --> 00:37:32.039
white background and Latino background listening in different ways. Some
727
00:37:32.079 --> 00:37:35.719
are listening on their computers and you see his face
728
00:37:35.760 --> 00:37:38.239
on the computer screen. Some are listening on smartphones and
729
00:37:38.280 --> 00:37:40.960
you see his face on a little small smartphone. Some
730
00:37:41.039 --> 00:37:42.719
are listening in their car and you don't see his
731
00:37:42.800 --> 00:37:46.440
face at all. So what it's kind of doing is
732
00:37:46.559 --> 00:37:52.280
giving him identification with popular themes that cross the various
733
00:37:52.320 --> 00:37:56.079
ideological divides within the Democratic Party. There's very few Democratic
734
00:37:56.079 --> 00:37:59.039
groups that wouldn't want to cut taxes on working people
735
00:37:59.079 --> 00:38:02.159
and raise taxes on billionaires. And we've heard before not
736
00:38:02.239 --> 00:38:06.280
taking corporate pack money as an almost touchstone for a
737
00:38:06.280 --> 00:38:10.360
lot of these candidates in the primaries. So he's basically
738
00:38:10.400 --> 00:38:13.519
trying to identify with broad democratic themes, but not with
739
00:38:13.599 --> 00:38:17.559
a hard edge. There's no hard music to this, there's
740
00:38:17.599 --> 00:38:21.679
no intensity in the way that some ads have. This
741
00:38:21.800 --> 00:38:26.480
is a classic soft cell or moderate cell positive ad
742
00:38:26.519 --> 00:38:30.559
that never mentions his opponent. His name is only on
743
00:38:30.599 --> 00:38:32.480
the screen at the beginning. In the end, as you
744
00:38:32.599 --> 00:38:35.840
listen to it, he doesn't say James Tallerico, James Tallerico.
745
00:38:35.880 --> 00:38:37.199
So again you kind of have to get it a
746
00:38:37.239 --> 00:38:39.880
little bit rather than have it hammered home. It's a
747
00:38:40.000 --> 00:38:44.000
very soft cell and that's the message that he's going
748
00:38:44.480 --> 00:38:48.119
into with Early voting has not yet started, so this
749
00:38:48.199 --> 00:38:50.360
is kind of building up a name identification and a
750
00:38:50.360 --> 00:38:55.599
positive feeling. It's not driving people to action immediately. Jasmin
751
00:38:55.639 --> 00:39:00.000
Crockett's ad is let's just say unconventional. It's even more
752
00:39:00.199 --> 00:39:04.360
unconventional visually than it is from what you're going to hear.
753
00:39:04.519 --> 00:39:07.320
But let's hear it and then I'll describe the unconventional
754
00:39:07.480 --> 00:39:08.599
visual aspects.
755
00:39:10.440 --> 00:39:15.119
The system is broken, Our communities are being terrorized. People
756
00:39:15.280 --> 00:39:19.480
are hurting, but Texas and has a warrior who's fighting back,
757
00:39:20.360 --> 00:39:25.320
a champion for us. Our votes are rights. It drives
758
00:39:25.360 --> 00:39:28.599
the president crazy blow blos so they tried to draw
759
00:39:28.679 --> 00:39:31.960
her out of Congress because they thought it would take
760
00:39:32.000 --> 00:39:33.280
away our power.
761
00:39:33.800 --> 00:39:40.719
They were wrong. I'm Jasmin Crockett and I approved this message. Well,
762
00:39:41.320 --> 00:39:44.119
let's just talk first about what you're hearing. You almost
763
00:39:44.159 --> 00:39:47.320
never hear her name. Is that throughout the voiceover person
764
00:39:47.400 --> 00:39:51.239
is talking about her and she and Crockett's face is
765
00:39:51.280 --> 00:39:55.199
coming up, but not Crockett's name, So you're not having
766
00:39:55.320 --> 00:40:00.400
Crockett's name be beaten or even really mentioned. You don't
767
00:40:00.440 --> 00:40:04.960
know what Jasmine Crocket looks like. You wouldn't necessarily know
768
00:40:05.239 --> 00:40:09.679
at the beginning that this is an ad for Jasmin Crockett.
769
00:40:10.199 --> 00:40:13.840
But what is it doing visually? There's animation. It's been
770
00:40:14.280 --> 00:40:18.119
cited as an anime inspired ad, and certainly the sort
771
00:40:18.159 --> 00:40:21.960
of animation that you have is Japanese anime inspired. That
772
00:40:22.000 --> 00:40:25.039
you have an anime version of Trump at the beginning,
773
00:40:25.079 --> 00:40:30.320
looking at screens, television screens. At the end, right before
774
00:40:30.360 --> 00:40:35.199
you hear Trump say Crocket, before they talk about trying
775
00:40:35.199 --> 00:40:37.880
to draw her out of power to keep us from
776
00:40:37.920 --> 00:40:41.119
having power, it's an anime Trump, And that's gotten a
777
00:40:41.159 --> 00:40:43.440
fair amount of attention. It could very well be getting
778
00:40:43.480 --> 00:40:46.239
her some free media time. I don't know. It tends
779
00:40:46.239 --> 00:40:50.679
to be that unusual or groundbreaking ads get more than
780
00:40:50.719 --> 00:40:53.159
the paid because people say, oh, this is unusual, and
781
00:40:53.199 --> 00:40:56.639
they show it as part of a news broadcast, but
782
00:40:57.159 --> 00:41:01.840
the music is more high energy. When first time Chasmin
783
00:41:01.920 --> 00:41:05.039
Crockett appears on the screen as the voiceover is going
784
00:41:05.079 --> 00:41:08.440
on about five to eight seconds and lightning is coming
785
00:41:08.480 --> 00:41:10.920
out of her and you hear the lightning sound. It's
786
00:41:10.960 --> 00:41:15.159
attracting your attention to the screen by the unusual sharp
787
00:41:15.239 --> 00:41:19.400
cuts and the animation and the music, but it's drawing
788
00:41:19.440 --> 00:41:23.719
your attention to a person who unlet Until you stay
789
00:41:23.760 --> 00:41:26.280
at the end, you may not catch the person's name.
790
00:41:26.960 --> 00:41:32.079
The message is fighter, The message is Trump is angry.
791
00:41:32.840 --> 00:41:35.400
She fights for us, doesn't tell you necessarily what she
792
00:41:35.519 --> 00:41:38.360
fights for in any degree of specific. So it's a
793
00:41:38.440 --> 00:41:41.199
very different cell. And that's what I wanted to point
794
00:41:41.199 --> 00:41:46.400
out is that Tallarico's soft, medium cell is also points
795
00:41:46.400 --> 00:41:51.960
out specific issues that he's running on. Crocketts is very attitude,
796
00:41:52.239 --> 00:41:57.880
very me vibe base and draws Trump in to a
797
00:41:57.880 --> 00:42:01.000
greater degree than tall Ico does. So it's two different
798
00:42:01.159 --> 00:42:06.760
positive approaches that are being shown to lone Star state Democrats,
799
00:42:07.119 --> 00:42:10.480
but tall Rico has more outside air support. He's also
800
00:42:11.079 --> 00:42:14.880
vassively outspent Crocket on television so far, and despite that,
801
00:42:15.199 --> 00:42:18.440
he in some cases is behind in the polls. The
802
00:42:18.480 --> 00:42:21.719
final ad is one that is a super pac AD
803
00:42:22.119 --> 00:42:25.400
that is pro tall Rico, but as you'll see, it's
804
00:42:25.440 --> 00:42:27.639
anything but pro taller Rico.
805
00:42:28.159 --> 00:42:31.960
Two Democrats running for Senate in Texas. Jasmine Crockett is
806
00:42:32.000 --> 00:42:35.639
the only one being backed by Republicans. They spent money
807
00:42:35.679 --> 00:42:37.880
to lift her up and push her into this race.
808
00:42:38.519 --> 00:42:39.920
Here's why she.
809
00:42:40.199 --> 00:42:43.960
Is their favorite candidate because they think that they can
810
00:42:44.000 --> 00:42:44.400
beat her.
811
00:42:44.800 --> 00:42:47.679
So with all that's as a stake and absolutely everything
812
00:42:47.679 --> 00:42:49.320
on the line, remember this.
813
00:42:50.039 --> 00:42:52.880
If she wins, it is a gift to Republicans.
814
00:42:53.480 --> 00:42:56.239
We lose most Our rising pack is responsible for the
815
00:42:56.320 --> 00:42:57.239
contents A sad.
816
00:42:57.880 --> 00:43:01.000
Yeah, this doesn't ever mention Tallarie's name at the beginning.
817
00:43:01.039 --> 00:43:03.559
It says there's two candidates they have side by side,
818
00:43:03.599 --> 00:43:06.599
and it says James Tallerico on his picture and Jasmin
819
00:43:06.639 --> 00:43:08.960
Crockett on her picture. But other than that, this is
820
00:43:09.000 --> 00:43:12.000
an attack ad, an attack AD on Jasmine Crockett and
821
00:43:12.079 --> 00:43:15.119
mentions her name a lot. Whenever you hear her being
822
00:43:15.199 --> 00:43:19.519
criticized on the screen. You have the same sort of
823
00:43:19.679 --> 00:43:22.840
thing that I like, which is the visual have words
824
00:43:22.840 --> 00:43:26.239
on the screen that reinforces the message that you're talking
825
00:43:26.280 --> 00:43:29.159
about This is a slam that says, if you want
826
00:43:29.199 --> 00:43:33.280
Trump to win, vote for Jasmine Crockett. Now, it doesn't
827
00:43:33.400 --> 00:43:36.840
tie her to policies, doesn't say that she's voting for
828
00:43:36.920 --> 00:43:42.800
anything that Trump wants, unlike the APEX finance ads against
829
00:43:42.840 --> 00:43:46.159
Tom Malinowski that accused him of basically voting for Trump's
830
00:43:46.159 --> 00:43:50.280
ice that ended up destroying his campaign in New Jersey
831
00:43:50.320 --> 00:43:54.239
eleven's special election primary. But it does say the Republicans
832
00:43:54.280 --> 00:43:57.719
want her to win, doesn't never actually say why, and
833
00:43:57.880 --> 00:44:00.800
the reason why is they view her as being less
834
00:44:00.840 --> 00:44:04.840
of a fit for Texas's swing voters than tall Rico.
835
00:44:05.199 --> 00:44:08.039
But the idea is, if you want the Republicans to win,
836
00:44:08.079 --> 00:44:11.320
as they say, you know, vote for vote for Crockett.
837
00:44:11.679 --> 00:44:13.639
As they say at the end, you know, if she wins,
838
00:44:13.719 --> 00:44:18.320
we lose. So it's a straight attack ad. I don't
839
00:44:18.360 --> 00:44:20.960
know which of these three approaches is going to work.
840
00:44:21.000 --> 00:44:23.559
That's one of the nice things about these campaigns is
841
00:44:23.599 --> 00:44:28.079
everyone's talking to the same voters, although they're talking to
842
00:44:28.440 --> 00:44:32.440
different subsets of the voters. It's I think pretty clear
843
00:44:32.480 --> 00:44:36.360
that Tallarico is trying to talk to the more generic Democrat.
844
00:44:37.039 --> 00:44:40.440
Crockett is trying to talk to the angrier Democrat and
845
00:44:41.239 --> 00:44:47.840
hoping that the vibe based campaign associates her with their feelings.
846
00:44:48.280 --> 00:44:51.320
But this gives you a sense of literally what the
847
00:44:51.440 --> 00:44:55.159
average voter. Not the person who shows up at precinct
848
00:44:55.199 --> 00:44:58.760
meetings or consumes massive amounts of television. They already know
849
00:44:58.880 --> 00:45:03.000
this stuff about the even in primaries. The average voter
850
00:45:03.360 --> 00:45:05.400
is the sort of person who gets their information from
851
00:45:05.440 --> 00:45:08.559
television and some sort of paid advertising. Maybe it's digital,
852
00:45:08.639 --> 00:45:12.000
maybe it's paid door to door canvassers or something, but
853
00:45:12.079 --> 00:45:14.800
on television screens in Texas. This is the fight that's
854
00:45:14.840 --> 00:45:17.559
going on, and we will find out when public polling
855
00:45:17.599 --> 00:45:20.320
takes place in the next week or so whether either
856
00:45:20.480 --> 00:45:24.480
candidate has managed to eke out a beyond the error
857
00:45:24.519 --> 00:45:29.880
of margin lead. That's it for this week. Join me
858
00:45:29.960 --> 00:45:33.559
next week as I restart my weekly mini rant about
859
00:45:33.599 --> 00:45:37.800
what's going on in US politics. Until then, let's reach
860
00:45:37.840 --> 00:45:47.679
for the stars together as we journey beyond the polls.