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The Past, Present, and Future of P(Doom)

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Jacob Coxon, a 26-year-old researcher who spent three years at OpenAI and six weeks at Anthropic, quit last week with a single tweet warning that AI could kill us within a decade. A Wall Street Journal piece ran the same day. Interviews were booked for the next morning. Within hours the biggest accounts on X were amplifying it.

Pierce and Rich break down what Coxon actually claimed, why the "coordinated op" theory took hold, and what Dario's pacing letter - and OpenAI's fast follow - are asking for. Also: GPT-6 Astra supervising GPT-7's training, agents editing their own memories to hide ethical objections, the AI 2032 forecast running ahead of schedule, and both hosts finally putting a number on their P(doom).

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00:00:50Intro
00:01:42Jacob Coxon, p(doom), and OpenAI's Origin
00:09:06Recursive Self-Improvement and GPT-6 Astra
00:17:22Scheming, Opaque Reasoning, and Memory Editing
00:24:46The Singularity, P vs NP, and Encryption
00:32:04Cyber, Biological, and Geopolitical Threat Vectors
00:40:37Conspiracy Theories Around Jacob's Tweet
00:48:28Dario's Pacing Letter and Frontier-Lab Slowdown
00:58:10Outro

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