#644: Most Traders Chase Win Rates… That’s the Problem



In this video:
00:22 – Paul Tillman – Director of Coaching at TFTC
00:53 – On holiday/vacation in Europe and trading.
01:44 – As a trader, be prepared for the unexpected.
02:40 – Casino win rate and your trading win rate.
03:30 – High reward:risk trading in trading is key.
04:35 – Monte Carlo Casino visit.

How would you like to achieve a win rate in the forex market that’s much less than you can even get here at the casino? Let’s talk about that and more right now.

Paul Tillman – Director of Coaching at TFTC

Hello traders, this is Paul Tillman. I’m the Director of Coaching Services here at The Forex Trading Coach, and this is video and podcast number 644.

I want to talk about 2 things today that we encounter in the forex market. The 1st one is expect the unexpected for trading, and the 2nd one is achieving a lower win rate, much lower than you can get here at the casino in Monte Carlo.

But you can get that rate achieved in the forex market and still do very well in your trading journey. So 1st is expect the unexpected.

On holiday/vacation in Europe and trading.

My family and I, we’ve been in Europe for the last 11 days. We started out in Paris and got to Disney, and then came down to Barcelona, Spain. And lo and behold, we found out that my wife was missing her passport.

So we’re in another country. Talk about things going unexpectedly. So just like in the forex market, we had to pivot. I had to take a flight back up to Paris, come back down to Spain, and then find the passport, get it, come back down, and meet the family just so we can be on this cruise right now.

So what does that mean for the forex market? Well, many people think it’s a get-rich-quick scheme. People show you spreadsheets. “Oh, it’s so easy all the time. You can just sprint to the finish line and it’s not a big deal, and you can just get rich fast.” And that’s just not true.

As a trader, be prepared for the unexpected.

You’re going to have unexpected things happen in the forex market, just like our trip, all the time. You’re going to have spreads that you have to deal with. You’re going to have price spikes you have to deal with. You may not have a certain pair on your broker platform. You may miss a time frame change. You miss a trade. A trade may not fill you in. All these unexpected things that can happen on a trip can certainly happen in the forex market.

You’ve got to be adaptable. Yeah, I was adaptable and took an early morning flight to save my family so we could go on a cruise and get home back to the US, back to North Carolina, where we live.

And in the trading markets, you’ve got to adapt to all of that. You know, it’s also news trading. What if you have round numbers and full Winter Band support? All of these things you have to account for, and the unexpected can certainly happen. But to succeed, you’ve got to deal with that. Well, the 2nd thing I want to talk to you about is the win rate.

Casino win rate and your trading win rate.

So here at the casino, many of the games you might have a 47%-48% chance to win.

And that’s because the house always has the advantage. So you’ve got a little bit less than a 50-50 chance of winning consistently in the long run in the casino.

The great thing about the forex market is, and the way we trade with consistent risk management and a great reward-to-risk, great trading is all about reward-to-risk in the markets.

I’m talking about 2-to-1 trades, 2.5-to-1, 3-to-1, 4-to-1. We’re in some great British pound weekly chart trades just this week that, on the market orders, can have upwards of 5-to-1, 6-to-1, or 7-to-1 in the market. And so you can do very well with, say, a rate of even 35%-40%.

High reward:risk trading in trading is key.

So it’s the 1 thing in the world, really, that you can get a less than 50% win rate and still achieve great results. Different things like sports. Our Carolina Hurricanes had a much bigger than 50% win rate, and they got in the playoffs and just won their 1st Stanley Cup in the last 20 years. Even in all sports like tennis, you’ve got to win more than 50% of the points.

In basketball, football, you’ve got to make more than 50% of your kicks and all that. But in trading, you can have that lower win rate and you can still do extremely well.

So what are we talking about today? Expect the unexpected when it comes to trading. Be adaptable, willing to make changes on the fly. Have a routine, even though things are there, subjectivity there.

Then you’ve just got to go with the unexpected, trade your plan, and get it going. With the casino and the win rate, then you’ve got to make sure you have a decent win rate, but it doesn’t have to be 50-50.

Monte Carlo Casino visit.

So I’m heading here. Going to go have a look at the casino, see if I can get that win rate for a little bit, and then head back on our cruise and our trip.

Andrew will be back next week, but great to talk to you here from our Tillman trip in Europe, and we’ll see you next week.

Episode Title: #644: Most Traders Chase Win Rates… That’s the Problem