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AI Boom vs Dotcom: Macro Signals, CapEx Risks, and Investor Signposts (Gino Rossi on Pizz-Spectives)
Rob Pizzichetta (Mont Wealth) interviews Gino Rossi (Vestigo Investments) about markets, macro conditions, and parallels between the AI boom and the dotcom cycle. Rossi explains Vestigo’s 2024 launch, its intergenerational-wealth target investor, and a “discovery” approach focused on under-covered stocks, with performance sitting mid-pack versus peers but positive. Macro discussion highlights US manufacturing surveys turning positive while housing remains weak amid high 30-year mortgage rates and sticky inflation, creating a two-speed economy and uncertainty for the Fed. Rossi draws on a San Francisco Fed paper on dotcom booms/busts, noting CapEx is hard to interpret due to IT price deflation and that dotcom excess was concentrated in telco CapEx, which later collapsed. He argues today’s hyperscaler AI CapEx is massive, LLM economics may be low-margin, and investors should watch demand-side signposts, not just CapEx, and stay nimble.
00:00 Nimble Investor Mindset
00:25 Show Intro and Guest
01:06 Vestigo Fund Overview
02:10 Discovery Fund Approach
02:49 Performance and Positioning
04:05 Macro Setup and Agenda
05:41 US Manufacturing vs Housing
08:02 Rates Inflation Two-Speed Economy
10:11 Planning for AI Cycle
11:50 Dotcom Parallels and Volatility
16:13 CapEx Deflation and Telco Warning
19:01 Hyperscaler CapEx and LLM Economics
22:32 Productivity Adoption and Circular Revenue
24:34 Signposts and How to Position
27:38 Wrap Up and Next Steps
