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Terry Montesi sits down with Monica Mason to explore what is really driving the resurgence of retail real estate investment in the United States. Drawing on her work analyzing capital markets data and investor behavior, Monica explains why retail fundamentals have strengthened in recent years and why institutional investors are increasingly allocating capital to the sector. The conversation unpacks the supply constraints created by post pandemic construction costs, the demographic trends shaping retail demand, and how investors are adapting to a higher interest rate environment. Along the way, Monica shares the data signals that matter most for investors evaluating where retail opportunities are emerging.
They discuss:
• Why retail investment has grown from 7% of total real estate investment in 2021 to 14% today
• How pandemic era construction slowdowns and rising costs created a supply shortage that supports rent growth
• Why institutional investors increased retail allocations and what is driving the surge in capital flows
• The demographic shifts fueling retail investment across the Southeast and Southwest, including Texas and Arizona
• Misconceptions around grocery anchored centers and where investors are beginning to look beyond them
Links:
Topics:
(00:00:00) - Intro
(00:00:23) - Meet Monica at JLL
(00:01:47) - Why retail rents are rising
(00:09:04) - Misconceptions and headlines
(00:11:02) - Demographics and wealth split
(00:14:21) - Rate volatility and lending
(00:19:27) - How JLL uses data models
(00:24:37) - Key 2025 data points
(00:26:56) - Grocery anchors and beyond
(00:32:06) - Cap rates and where capital goes
(00:36:10) - Development outlook
(00:38:07) - Why retail wins long term
