Ep 11 - Broken Correlations and Sky-High Valuations: Lessons from Thirty Years of Return Forecasting

With the Shiller CAPE above 40, roughly double its post-1950 average, what should long-term investors expect from the next decade? Aurellan CEO Chris Di Leva talks with Steve Foresti, CIO Emeritus at Wilshire, who has spent decades building capital market assumptions. They cover how starting valuations feed into ten-year equity forecasts. They also test the case for a permanently higher market multiple, and ask whether the AI capex boom is turning asset-light companies into capital-heavy ones. Steve explains how to tell a valuation signal that's wrong from one that's only slow, and why the correlation matrix can hurt clients more than the return numbers, as 2022 showed. They also discuss what private markets should really earn now that companies stay private longer. The episode closes on the single most important thing a trustee should consider when making a decision they'll live with for twenty years.

Important Notice

Aurellan, whose CEO hosts this podcast, is a current client of Wilshire; no compensation was paid by either party for this appearance, and this relationship creates an incentive to speak favourably about Wilshire. Views expressed are the speakers’ personal opinions as of the recording date, are subject to change, and are not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Statistics, forecasts, and comparisons discussed are estimates only and are not indicative of future results.