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In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, to return to the rapidly evolving conflict in Iran as the fighting enters its third week. What began as a regional confrontation has now produced far‑reaching political and economic consequences, both within Iran and across global markets. Oil remains near $100 per barrel, energy infrastructure in the Gulf has been repeatedly struck, and the killing of another senior Iranian figure has escalated uncertainty around the trajectory of the conflict.
Richard provides insight into how Iran’s battlefield setbacks, leadership losses, and retaliatory strikes on Gulf cities are shaping the country’s strategic posture, and how these dynamics are influencing regional partners who once viewed themselves as insulated from direct conflict. The conversation also explores why European countries have declined to join U.S. efforts near the Strait of Hormuz despite their heavy reliance on energy flows through the corridor, and how President Trump’s assertion that the U.S. “doesn’t need help” from NATO is shaping transatlantic tensions.
Clay and Richard examine the roles of China and Russia, both of which have publicly expressed support for Iran, and discuss what this alignment reveals about the broader geopolitical relationship among the three countries. The episode concludes with a look at possible scenarios going forward, from prolonged fighting to broader regional spillover, what policymakers should watch as the conflict evolves, and the sentiment within the United States of entering into this conflict.
This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, and managed by Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
