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In this episode, we begin with Hitler’s supposed Alpine Redoubt and use it to explore a broader question: how do we make sense of irrational decision-making? We discuss why Allied planners expected the Nazis to behave “sensibly” by retreating to Bavaria, when Hitler instead chose a symbolic last stand in Berlin. From there, we look at other examples where leaders appear to act against their own interests, including Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Trump’s strike on Iran.
We then set out a framework for irrationality, asking whether bad decisions come from strange goals, wanting the wrong thing, misunderstanding the world, choosing tactics that do not work or simply failing to think clearly. We consider how this applies to politics, war, climate denial, government policy and personal choices, before turning to the awkward fact that apparent irrationality can sometimes be strategically useful. Ultimately, we conclude that irrationality is messy, difficult to diagnose and often inseparable from the values and beliefs that drive people in the first place.
