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Paul Kedrosky of SK Ventures says AI capex is driving up to 70 percent of US GDP growth, and most of it is now borrowed. He walks through the money map, the 2029 maturity wall, why AI tokens are a deflationary commodity, and three ways the AI bubble reaches companies that never touch a data center.
In this episode, Paul and Michael discuss:
- Why AI capex now accounts for 30 to 70 percent of US GDP growth, and the historical moments that looked the same
- The money map: how the buildout moved from hyperscaler cash flow to more than 60 percent external financing
- The 2029 maturity wall, and why it rhymes with the mortgage resets of the financial crisis
- Tokens as the first hyper-deflationary industrial commodity, and the growth math that follows
- Why developers are a misleading signal for how the rest of the economy will use AI
- Circular financing: when one company is customer, supplier, investor, and lender at once
- Whether anyone is safe building on top of the frontier models, and what quant funds do instead
- Three things operators should do now: guard your signal, vet your vendors, and stop extrapolating from coders
About Paul:
Paul Kedrosky is co-founder and managing partner of SK Ventures and a fellow at MIT’s Initiative on the Digital Economy, where his research focuses on AI and the future of work. A former Wall Street technology equity analyst, he consults with major asset managers, is a regular contributor at CNBC and Bloomberg, and co-hosts a weekly show with former Twitter CEO Dick Costolo.
Resources mentioned:
- Paul Kedrosky: https://paulkedrosky.com
- MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy: https://ide.mit.edu
- National Bureau of Economic Research: https://www.nber.org
- CoreWeave: https://www.coreweave.com
- Hudson River Trading: https://www.hudsonrivertrading.com
- Jane Street: https://www.janestreet.com
- Stratechery by Ben Thompson: https://stratechery.com
Connect with Paul:
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-kedrosky/
- Newsletter: https://paulkedrosky.com
Connect with Michael:
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-koenig514
- Building Helm: https://helmapp.ai
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