00:00:00
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action boss.
00:00:07
Speaker 2: All right.
00:00:08
Speaker 3: Here we go from throwing in song spec I'm sitting up to cash stop.
00:00:15
Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.
00:00:20
Speaker 1: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money. All right, this is the ultimate kabay.
00:00:27
Speaker 2: If you want to pass.
00:00:31
Speaker 1: And we are under way. What's going on? Everybody?
00:00:36
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I'm your host, Chris Raybond. It's Super Bowl sixty. It's time for.
00:00:43
Speaker 1: Some anytime touch downs.
00:00:46
Speaker 2: I got my guys Sean Kerner and Jill Golant with me. We're gonna give you a few different bets for the Super Bowl. We're gonna get a parway going favorite long shot. We'll talk King of the End Zone as well. Hit our partway last week with the JSN Kennith Walker, Courtland, Sutton, Jill.
00:01:08
Speaker 1: What's going on? A nice call?
00:01:09
Speaker 2: I believe you were the Sutton leg of that, so it's a nice call on that one. How you feeling heading into Super Bowl sixty.
00:01:16
Speaker 1: I like the matchup.
00:01:17
Speaker 4: I mean I wish I could say I feel great about trying to get behind the Patriots, you know, keeping it close. I still just feel like this is going to be very dominant Seahawks wins. So but we'll see how this game goes. And I think we got some good touchdown bets to line up with that kind of script.
00:01:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, I find it.
00:01:36
Speaker 2: I mean, Kerner, I don't know about you, but from a handicapping perspective, I think this is one of the more kind of fun games to handicap and kind of look it, you know, you know, Okay, what do you think is going to happen? Because I think I maybe it's the defensive head coaches, but I just feel like there's a lot of uncertainty and a lot of different outcomes more than usual, especially because you and I were just kind of talking about how the the Seahawks have been a little bit chalky this postseason.
00:01:58
Speaker 1: But any thoughts on the match?
00:02:01
Speaker 5: Uh? Yeah, I mean we've talked about length now. I think you and I have given out like fifteen bets so far, so why not a few more today?
00:02:09
Speaker 1: Oh? Hell yeah?
00:02:09
Speaker 2: All right, let's and before we get into the touchdowns, I'll toss it over to for a word from our sponsored DraftKings. The Action Network podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred dollars back in bonus bets.
00:02:25
Speaker 1: If your bet wins.
00:02:27
Speaker 2: Love the thrill of live betting, DraftKings has got you covered.
00:02:30
Speaker 1: Bet live on star.
00:02:31
Speaker 2: Player props and in progress games right as they happen. To get started, use promo code Action Network when signing up with DraftKings. Again, use Code Action Network when signing up, and bet five bucks to get three hundred back in bonus bets.
00:02:46
Speaker 1: If your bet wins, the crown is yours, all right, don't forget. If you want to tell some.
00:02:52
Speaker 2: Of the bets, you can look for the quick slip links in the podcast a video descriptions, or go to Action Network dot com slash bet now. So there's only one game, obviously, but so we want to have a you know, obviously, we want to give you guys a bunch of different ways to kind of attack this. Again, I do think there are numerous possibilities just because of the way the matchup sets up. So we're gonna do a We're gonna start with our favorite Super Bowl touchdown parway, So instead of just you know, each given a bet and we couldbine into a parlay at the end. We're gonna do you know, each one of us is gonna kind of give a multi leg parway here with touchdowns. Kerner, you're up first. Where we're going for our Super Bowl sixty parlay.
00:03:37
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna go with both starting tight ends here, so Hunter Henry and AJ Barner and it comes out to ten to one. So I like those odds. And you know the first part of that is Hunter Henry, who you know, stuck. He he's on his over He's made some excellent points. Why you know this is a good spot for him because you know, the Seahawks defense is really good. But if there was the Achilles Hill and there, you know, pass defense, I guess it would be the tight end.
00:04:06
Speaker 1: So I like Henry there.
00:04:08
Speaker 5: Plus he you know, he doesn't always need to rely on cheap tight ends cheap touchdowns, you know, like around the goal line in the end zone. You know, he has three touchdowns over twenty five yards. Five of his eight touchdowns have been you know, over ten yards, so he has multiple ways of getting there. I just hope it doesn't happen in the first quarter because I have his under four and a half yards in the first quarter. Maybe you know, like a four yard touchdown be fine. I'd win both bets. But I think kind of the way to approach Henry is he gets off to such slow starts that if he's you know, shut out in the first quarter, that's probably the best time to actually invest in his touchdown market. It's probably going to be over three to one at that point. So I think the live angle for Henry is start hammering his props, you know, at the end of the first quarter.
00:04:55
Speaker 1: But I digress.
00:04:56
Speaker 5: You know, he's the first leg of this.
00:04:58
Speaker 1: The second leg is.
00:04:59
Speaker 5: My guy, aj barn Or have to go with him. You know, he can get this as a normal pass catching tight end. He has six receiving touchdowns on the season, but you know he has that added upside as the main ball carrier in their tush push play. And I think, you know, with Zach Sharbonay out, that just increases the chances of them kind of leaning on Barner in those you know, short yard situations. I know, Raybun you mentioned it where Kenneth Walker, if it's first and goal on the one, Kenneth Walker might get the first crack at it and if he doesn't get in there, they might be like, Okay, we're done messing around. Get Barner in there, and that might happen because you know, Sharbonay was excellent. Scored nine rushing touchdowns inside the five on eighteen attempts, so about a you know, fifty percent rate. Walker scored on just four of nine rush attempts inside the five, so you know, forty four percent of the time, and that's been kind of a theme with him in his career.
00:05:52
Speaker 1: Last year it was just four.
00:05:53
Speaker 5: Touchdowns on twelve rush attempts inside the five. So he's not really a short yardage back. You know, he's of a home run hitter. So AJ Barner makes a ton of sense to get in there. And he has a ninety percent success rate on the touch push. That's the highest success rate of any ball carrier with ten plus carries on the season. So I don't know why they wouldn't just give it to him if they get you know, goal to go situations. So I like AJ Barner and Hunter Henry to score at ten to one here.
00:06:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, I know Jill is going to talk about Kenneth Walker. I mean, I actually think Barner and Walker probably would struggle to get it in. But the good thing is they could catch the ball too. They can just catch receiving touchdowns. So because the Patriots, man, I mean to running backs, I'll just put it.
00:06:44
Speaker 1: I'll put this stat out there.
00:06:46
Speaker 2: In the game's Milton Williams played, they give up two touchdowns to running backs on two hundred and sixty two carries and overall a one point a one point two touchdown rate percentage in those games, just overall to all players.
00:07:00
Speaker 1: So it's probably gonna have to come through the air.
00:07:03
Speaker 2: So you know, if anyone is out there listening, you know a lot of these touchdowns we like on the Seahawks, like probably want to parlay with something something with Sam Darnold as well, because I think I personally, we think a lot of the stuff is gonna have.
00:07:15
Speaker 1: To kind of come through the air. But Joey, that brings me to you.
00:07:17
Speaker 2: So Kerner had Barner Henry ten to one where we going with your favorite Super Bowl sixty touchdown?
00:07:24
Speaker 1: Parloy?
00:07:24
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, Like, and I know that you were kind of considering whether or not you're gonna take Kenneth Walker for no touchdown, Like at this point, I think you actually do have that bet in the Actually, yeah.
00:07:34
Speaker 2: Last year it was it was Saquon that was one of my favorite, one of my favorite bets to hit because they just never offer those markets, but also because he was the favorite. So yeah, that's that's just a signatory Ray Bond bets.
00:07:44
Speaker 1: No, don't mind me. Well plus plus plus one fifty fifty yeaheah, Yeah, that's pretty good. And I think the main.
00:07:55
Speaker 4: Thing too, the reason why, like again, like I'm still gonna go with Kenneth Walker in this because even though A J. Barner has been effective, he's not there's no Jalen Hurts in this offense to kind of vulter like kind of happened in the Super Bowl last year. Four touchdowns in two playoff games for kW. Like again, I think with it being the Super Bowl, Sharvion a out, he's probably gonna see his highest snap rate of the year. The Seahawks are pretty predictable on offense, ran the ball to the third highest rate in the NFL during the regular season, so if they're expected to win or have a lead in the game, I think that should set up well for more opportunities for Kenneth Walker or in general the running offense for the Seahawks. But next pick, it's our guy, JSN. I think now I've kind of been happy to see that he's arguably, I think the best wide receiver in the NFL right now, Like even when he's not open, he's open, like Sam Darno was kind of made it a priority to target him. A thirty percent target share through two playoff games, very consistent with what we saw during the regular season with that was around thirty two percent. Another thing too, Christian Gonzalez. I know we talk about like how effective he has been since returning, but he's had some issues in coverage, and if they're gonna be playing man coverage, they're thirty first in defensive DV WAIVERSUS wide receiver one. So I would not be shocked if JSN actually scores the first touchdown of Super Bowl sixty. Now the third pick. This bet has kind of been steamed since I bet it. I got it around plus four hundred when the odds first opened up. It's around plus three hundred now, and that's Drake May for an any time touchdown scored last week versus the Broncos led the NFL in total scrambles second in scrambles per game behind Patrick Mahomes. The other thing too, when you look at Drake May splits, his scramble rate tends to take a huge jump when he's not being blitzed. It's like almost four times compared to when he is being blitzed, and the Seahawks bottom five and blitz right per game this season. So I think in a potentially trailing game script, there's gonna be a lot of dropbacks for Drake May, I think, especially in the second half. So I like May to call his oone number near the goal line and get the score. I think the shoulder injury is just overblown. So that's around twelve to one if you want to parlay Drake May, JSN and Kenneth Walker.
00:10:00
Speaker 2: I feel that, you know, I think I think he made some great points about especially Drake May, because you know, it's I think I think the market has been a little overwecautious on him, and and I would argue JSN as well. So that's kind of a teaser where I'm gonna go with my paraway. So I'm gonna go JSN two touchdowns that's at plus five hundred, and then you're throwing that may touchdown, which yeah, a little bit, a little bit overvalued, but you throw it in the paraway with JSN two and now you're at nineteen to one on drafting. So the reason I like this is because this Super Bowl matchup, I think because it's the Super Bowl, because you know, there's record amounts of dollars flowing in in the betting market and whatnot. I'm finding that some of the guys that we would almost never bet on in like the regular season or even maybe the you know, certain parts of the postseason, like just the truck kind of the truck. The things you expect to happen are being like overvalued or being undervalue. Excuse me, they're just kind of being overlooked. Like js is the best player on the field amongst both of these teams, in my opinion. The fact that he's still like, you know, plus five hundred plus five fifty for MVP just because a lot of quarterbacks have one is bonkers to me, especially when you consider median outcome. JSN like is over ninety yards. Sam Donold's median outcome is like two hundred and thirty passing yards. Who would win the MVP in that case? So anyway, But I'm gonna say he goes out there and makes a statement. Christian goan Zaus was targeted sixteen times in that Houston game. Overall, he's been targeted one hundred and one times. That's most of any Patriot, and he did miss some time as well. So I do think that regardless of the coverage scheme, they're gonna find ways to get jas in the ball, and he actually probably him and a guy like Shahid I would say probably also have outside chances of scoring on the ground if anyone does. Because I do think Seattle's gonna have to get creative, yew. I don't know if they're gonna be able to just wine up the traditional run game, whether it is sneaks or just handing it off, but they might be able to, you know, do something like with a fly sweeper, you know, something like that. So I love Jsen to get in twice. And then Drake may best player on the field when he's on the field in my opinion, Like I know, the Seahawks have a great defense, Drake May has been spectacular this year. I would take an injured Drake May to get an the end zone over any other Patriot on this roster. I mean, coming into the year, everyone's like Mike, It's gonna take a while. Vrabel's great, But this rosters and shambles and lo and behold, Drake May carries them to the super Bowl.
00:12:28
Speaker 1: I think he has to carry them in this game.
00:12:30
Speaker 2: I don't think receivers will be opened very often for him, and I think Seattle will sit back and rush for because that's kind of that's what they built the defense to do.
00:12:40
Speaker 1: So that is gonna lead to Drake May running around.
00:12:43
Speaker 2: He's gonna have to break a tackle or two because there are gonna be extra defenders. Emon Warrior I could see him spying on Drake May if it gets to that.
00:12:50
Speaker 1: So but I think Drake May can do it.
00:12:52
Speaker 2: So give me JSN two May one, nineteen to one on DraftKings. Those are our favorite touchdown parways. But we got more show coming up for you. We're gonna give you. We're gonna make a parway together like we always do in honor of you know, hitting it last week. We'll go favorite long shot. I know, before we get out of here, we'll also talk King of the end Zone. You know, that's the you know guy who scores, the longest touchdown, real cool kind of contest they got going on on DraftKings, So we'll get into.
00:13:22
Speaker 1: All of those before we do. Just again render.
00:13:27
Speaker 2: If you want to tail some of the bets from today's show, all the bets, any of the bets, find a quick flip link in the podcast and video description, or visit actionnetwork dot com slash bet now, or even better, you can sign up for Action Pro. Action Pro users get real time alerts as soon as experts like Stuck You, bretd Anderson, Jill Kerner track picks in the Action at You'll also get real time money percentages to see where the smart money is flowing. Sometimes it's dumb money too, but nevertheless you want to see where it's going and access to our NFL player prop projections by Sean Kerner. And right now, to celebrate Super Bowl sixty, you can get sixty dollars off an annual subscription right now. Just go to Actionnetwork dot com slash Pro to get started again. That's sixty dollars off a year of Action Pro. It's go to Action Network dot com slash Pro. All right, so let's do this now, let's come together. You know we kind of argue the merits of some of these different guys, and you know how we think it's it's all gonna play out. So let's go with our favorite anytime touchdown parway presented by Draftings. This is the one where we're each just gonna pick one guy. We are on a streak, a one week streak here, so let's get it. Let's get it going, guys, let's keep it going. I should say, Curney, you're up first. Yeah, so yeah, I just gave out Hunter, Henry and AJ Barner. I'm gonna stick with AJ Barner as my favorite of the two here at plus two forty. You already mentioned that he can get there as a pass catching tight end. He has six receiving touchdowns on the season.
00:14:58
Speaker 5: But the sneaky part with Barner is he could get there with the tush push play at the goal line. And I think with Zach Sharboney out, those chances go up. And it's been extremely effective this year. Ninety percent success rate on his ten toush pushes. That's better than you know, a traditional quarterback sneak. It's the highest success rate of you know, any ballcarrier with ten or more carries. So I think it'd be silly for them not to kind of use that in a high leverage game like the Super Bowl. So give me aj Bartner at plus two forty.
00:15:30
Speaker 4: Jim, all right, I'm gonna take Drake May. It's my favorite touchdown back to Super Bowl sixty. It's too hard to ignore the scramble rate of what we've seen from Drake May during the regular season. I think he's just such a big bodies kind of like a Josh Allen clone. I think he could just bulldoze over some guys to be able to get into the end zone. He scored last week versus the Broncos a very tough run defense as well. So anything over plus two to fifty, let's take Drake May in the spot.
00:15:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm going with JSN here.
00:15:58
Speaker 2: Let's get the anchor going again. I think best player on the field. He's scored in over half his games already this season. And this is a spot, a very unique spot where you know, the Seahawks are facing a defense that just hasn't given up much on the ground, especially in terms of touchdowns. So that you know, with JSM getting such a high target share already and the Seahawks also usually keep guys in the block right, so they there's a fifty percent of the time they keep either a tight end or running back in to block, So that just weaves a more concentrated target share among the guys that are in the route. So JSN that thirty percent target chair, I expect it to go up in this game. So give me JSN minus one ten, Barner at plus two to forty Drake Maytt plus two to seventy JSN at minus one ten. You can parway those at Draftings and you get twenty to one odds. So pretty juicy. That was our favorite anytime touchdown Parway presented by Draftings for Super Bowl sixty. All right, well, add that one to the Parway Express account in the Action App. That's where we track all of our long shots and things like that.
00:17:03
Speaker 1: So go follow.
00:17:04
Speaker 2: Parlay Express if you haven't already on the Action app, have some fun with us some of those longer shots. And again, while you're working at Parlay Express, don't forget again sign up for Action Pro.
00:17:14
Speaker 1: It is great.
00:17:15
Speaker 2: It is the only way for you to get the best bets at the best prices with immediate notifications, which is key when action experts post their picks if these lines do move, so getting those immediate notifications can really come in big depending on which market you're betting in. You could also find those quick slit links for these best in the podcast description or is it Action network dot Com slash bet Now, So we have one game, so let's go a little let's go a little off off the radar on this show. You know, we usually kind of do you know, we're just kind of breaking down the games we give our favorite parlay.
00:17:48
Speaker 1: We can break down some primetime r out of here.
00:17:50
Speaker 2: But for this one, let's call our favorite long shots touchdown.
00:17:54
Speaker 1: Bet in this game.
00:17:56
Speaker 2: I do think this is an interesting one for long shots because they're like the Seahawks have a whole bunch of guys that they kind of like play but like bare we play. And then the Patriots, you know, they they're a little more kind of an open book, and it's kind of shift from game to game. Like I was asking stuck you like, is it gonna be Hooper or Westover or sixth Lineman or is it gonna be Pop Douglas, Like who's the guy that's gonna be kind of that in that game plan so I think this is a fascinating one to pick some long shots.
00:18:24
Speaker 1: Curder start with you where you going.
00:18:26
Speaker 5: Yeah, So if I mean, if we're gonna go with the long shot, might as well go with the long shot here. So I'm gonna go with Jack Westover. He was forty to one this morning. Now he's thirty to one. So you know someone's onto this. Yeah, Like I still like it at thirty to one. You know, he's the Pets fullback, and you know, ever since Antonio Gibson went down in Week five, they've been using west Over a bit more, especially recently. You know, he's seen this app rate in the thirty five forty range the past several games. His routes around rates, you know, in the fifteen percent range. It was, you know, season nine, twenty four percent against the Broncos last game in the Conference championship. So he's kind of in that Nate Adkins kind of troll range there. And you know he's obviously in there just a block. He only has two targets on the season, but this is the game where you know everyone's gonna pull out any trick they have in the bag, and you know, giving west Over a carry or you know, a trick play near the goal line is certainly much more likely to happen in the Super Bowl. So that's why I like him here, but just to kind of catch the Seahawks off guard. But he was He was decent in college. You know, his final season at Washington with Michael Pennix junior there, he was third on the team in receptions of forty six, only behind Roma Dunsday and Jalen Polk. He actually had one more catch than Jalen mcmill which is kind of crazy. So you know, he has some pass touching chops. So if they want to kind of, you know, leverage that in some way here, now's the time to do it. So I think he's worth a sprinkle here at thirty to one.
00:20:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, he he only blocked onie pass block nineteen point three percent of the time on pass plays, so he actually does when he's in on pathways, he does to run route. And I think a big part of Westover and why he's a smart bet is the Patriots offense has.
00:20:32
Speaker 1: Kind of gone a little dyslexic.
00:20:34
Speaker 2: I like to call it, like they went from like a heavy one two to a two to one where instead of Austin Hooper being on a field. It's like west Over now as the fullback former tight end, because I feel like at one point he was the third tight end and then they were like, all right now you're You're just a fullback now. And that's kind of the offense they've been rolling with over the last you know, price since to Buy, which is where we've also seen Drake by Scrambamore and just a lot of different things have changed.
00:20:58
Speaker 1: So I think that is deliverate.
00:21:00
Speaker 2: So yeah, there's a chance Westover out snaps Hooper. I mean last game, I think it was exactly equal on pass plays anyway, So yeah, I like that one at thirty to one. Jill, where were going for our favorite long shot?
00:21:15
Speaker 4: All right, I'm going to recycle a pick from last week. Jake Bobo anytime touchdown anything got ten to one or better. He's around eleven to one right now at DraftKings. He did catch a touchdown in the NFC Championship game, three targets and two playoff games, two of them were in the red zone.
00:21:30
Speaker 1: This has like this reeks.
00:21:32
Speaker 4: Of like a Connor Hayward, Nate Atkinspiel to it where if Bobo is on the field, he's likely to be targeted because technically this season and including the playoffs, he did have these second highest targets per rout run versus man coverages this year on the Seahawks behind JSN. Now, again very small sample only like ten routes, but it supports that if he does play, is a good chance he's gonna get targeted. So I think it's a good alternative. I feel like the Patriots just completely sell out and focus on taking away JSN. Again, easier said than but if they do, receivers like Bobo could just see more usage. I mean he's six'. Four you look at the other guys in, coverage Like Marcus jones is five to, Eight Christian gonzalez his six, feet like he could win in those one on one. Coverages SO i Think Jake bobo attend to one is a fun long shot for this.
00:22:15
Speaker 2: Game oh, man if you could bet on not only like the touchdown, scorer but parlay with the guy who he catches it. On BECAUSE i like that call on On Marcus jones because, YEAH i was looking at that, too like he's a he's a great corner but, undersize and he gave him eight touchdowns this, year which is actually.
00:22:34
Speaker 1: Absurd, yeah.
00:22:37
Speaker 2: Right, Right BUT i Mean i'm just looking at the, numbers Like Jones eve from, eight like eight. Touchdowns there's a lot of, touchdowns especially for a guy who you, knows quality guy otherwise pretty good coverage. Numbers it's not like he was just getting beat all. Day but that's the. Guy you know that The patriots red zone defense has been, bad AND i do think, that you, know because of the lack of the you, know the run, game it's gonna it's gonna come down to the past game in the red. Zone so, YEAH i like that. Call i'm gonna kind of stick with with.
00:23:05
Speaker 3: It.
00:23:05
Speaker 2: Here we're gonna. Go you, know we have already two. Bigs Well bell is not a, big but he's kind of a. BIG i mean he's in there like run block even though he's a. Receiver But i'm gonna go With Elijah arroyo here at at ten to. One and you, know kernel you you AND i kind of talked about this early in the, week and.
00:23:20
Speaker 1: You made a great.
00:23:21
Speaker 2: Point it's like if he's probably just gonna get, refunded if he's like you're gonna get refunded or he's gonna be the number two tight end like. That he's never been the number three tight end in the. Game, yeah, Exactly so you, know there's THERE'S i will say for people, betting if you're like if you have like if you only have one parlay or something, like, yeah like IF i don't know how your, book like every book is, different but there might there's a chance that he gets, scratched which you would just get no. Action but obviously if you're combining with a bunch of different, STUFF i don't know that could upset.
00:23:48
Speaker 1: That But.
00:23:50
Speaker 2: Arroyo is another guy who in this, Game i'm just looking for talent at this point BECAUSE i think it's wide.
00:23:56
Speaker 1: Open uh we know.
00:23:57
Speaker 2: Who we know for the most part who's getting especially on The, seahawks but we you, know The seahawks are the. Favorite we expect them to score more touchdowns or they're more likely of the two And, arroyo it looks like it looks like the last absence was maybe still a little injury, related because you, know it kind of looks like there's more optimism about, him you, know heading into the Super.
00:24:18
Speaker 1: Bowl SO i do think he's gonna suit. Up he's always been.
00:24:21
Speaker 2: The number two tight, end and this is just a guy that has a lot of, talent explosive, guy and in a matchup WHERE i think The seahawks not only around the goal, line but just in, GENERAL i think they're gonna be able to pass heavier than usual because just nobody runs A New england like it's just it's just.
00:24:38
Speaker 1: Absurd But i've been saying it all.
00:24:40
Speaker 2: Playoffs you just don't run On New england and that has kind of led me to some you know a lot of the handicaps That i've been having success, with AND i think a royal kind of sit stands out for that where it's, like, okay if if If seattle can't get it in or they don't trust their run game around the goal, line they're gonna have multiple time ends in. There arroyo has always been the second tight end when he's been, active and he has the talent to beat, linebackers.
00:25:08
Speaker 1: Safeties you, know all those guys For.
00:25:09
Speaker 2: New england that you know have stepped up so big this, year but are still you, know you would say like the weaker points of their defense compared to you, know goodzals In Carlton davis on the outside SO i Think arroyo ten to one is a smart bet here because there is some uncertainty AND i think you're getting a little bit of a discount here with.
00:25:28
Speaker 1: Him so like him at ten to one.
00:25:32
Speaker 2: Again kerner Likes Jack westover And joe's On Jake. Bobo for, me It's Elijah arroyo favorite long, shots.
00:25:39
Speaker 1: MAN i WOULD i would like to see the odje Of we probably all three of, those, ACTUALLY i mean.
00:25:45
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe maybe you can find those well while we get The king of The End. Zone but, yeah so if you're not familiar draftings is a really fun.
00:25:53
Speaker 1: Promotion it's Called king of The End.
00:25:54
Speaker 2: Zone it's essentially you get to place a bet on a player to score a. Touchdown but it's essentially a bet on who's gonna score the longest.
00:26:04
Speaker 1: Touchdown now whoever.
00:26:06
Speaker 2: Else also plays the bet on that player gets a share of the pot of whoever. Wins so it's kind of it has its you, know kind of similar TO dfs in a, way but it's also there's a lot of game theory with you want to have you don't want to just have like the truck, necessarily and now if he is the longest, touchdown like IT'S. JSN i, mean you're just gonna be sharing the pot with more. People so the idea is to try to find the least likely guy who scores the longest, TOUCHDOWN i think is the best way to put. It with that being Said, kerner who you got For king of The End.
00:26:39
Speaker 1: Zone Super bowl.
00:26:39
Speaker 5: Sixty, yeah that's a great way to put. It where if you TAKE, jsn obviously you're more favored to get, it but you're gonna split it with.
00:26:48
Speaker 1: You, know a million.
00:26:49
Speaker 5: People so you just have to decide what your goal. Is so Anytime i'm in a situation like this WHERE i have to risk nothing and it's nothing but, Upside i'm gonna go the craziest route, possible the most. UPSIDE i Think Kyle williams is a good blend of that because he's obviously a long shot to. Score, here he's thirteen to one to, score Which I'm i'm in line, with but you know they're typically going to be longer touchdowns to three touchdowns this year seventy two, yards thirty seven, yards thirty three, yards so he's typically just getting downfield shots maybe catch The seahawks defense off. Guard so he's exactly the type of player where you, know he's probably less likely to, score but if he, hits probably not gonna have to share the pot with too many. People SO i think in these kinds of, SITUATIONS i had to go for upset like. That so give Me Kyle williams.
00:27:35
Speaker 2: Here, yeah and you also get the upside of the kick, returns like he's been on he's been a kick return duty.
00:27:43
Speaker 1: Since oh, yeah.
00:27:44
Speaker 2: Since who do they take Off Afton chisholm Because afton chishom is probably gonna be inactive.
00:27:50
Speaker 5: When M collins came. Back that kind of helped him out. Right, yeah they've been Making, yep that's a great.
00:27:56
Speaker 4: Point he was doing it Over Denis, JOHNSON i think was doing a little bit as, well BUT i think.
00:27:59
Speaker 2: He those are the, Two those are the two main guys that do, it so that those are the two projected. Guys If chisholm is for some reason, active he'd probably take one of those two. Spots but he probably won't be active Because, jennings their other running, back was ruled, out so it would have to be Like johnson will have to be active as that third. Back but, yeah that's that's just an added that's just added upside in that.
00:28:20
Speaker 1: Market, Yeah, jill where we?
00:28:23
Speaker 3: Going All?
00:28:24
Speaker 1: Right this one might probably be the chalky one of the.
00:28:26
Speaker 4: Three Rashid shahed mainly just BECAUSE i was able to cash in on this in the divisional. Round he cashed in FOR us with one hundred yard return touchdown versus The. Niners BUT i think just the fact that there's so many outs With, shahed you, know you have the return game. Angle he's a deep. Threat he leads the team in a dot through both playoff. Games patriots special, teams you don't think of them as like a bad special, teams like the way that The rams were even The. Niners but twentieth in defensive dv away this, year so not. Great and then The seahawks, DEFENSE i think they're gonna make The patriots have the pun a bit more than. USUAL i think that Gives shehat a little bit more opportunities to return some of those. KICKS i think as, well with the amount of man coverage that The patriots, PLAY i think he could also find himself in some single coverage for a deep, touchdown and, especially LIKE i, said if they set out to STOP. Jsn AND i think another thing, too there's that rushing up side out of the. Backfield SO i know that we want to talk about guys that don't have you don't have to share the pod as. Much BUT i think out of any player in this, game he has the most upside to likely win this given all the different angles that he could score from a long.
00:29:29
Speaker 2: Range, yeah and you know what you, Heat it's it's funny because he's he's got like room for growth as a, Receiver like he's cash these as a, returner like what three four times as a seahawk alone, already but done absolutely nothing as a. Receiver so they're like that that you, know WE i think we saw, UNFORTUNATELY i THINK i think it was one of us was ON i think it Was turner was on the like under shaheat and he got like a fifty one yard or. Something but like that was like the only that's the first time we saw. IT i think we're gonna see more of that at some, point and you would think it would be in The Super.
00:30:05
Speaker 4: Bowl so and it was probably his only catch of the game.
00:30:07
Speaker 2: Too oh, YEAH i mean but and you all, right So i'm just get into mind and you mentioned like you have the talky Guy, Joe this should be the trucky Guy Traveon.
00:30:17
Speaker 1: Henderson but.
00:30:20
Speaker 2: We don't know how much is gonna play love that for this market because that is going to depress his. OWNERSHIP i think a little bit in terms of how many people you, know really end, up you, know sticking with him as the pick when you, know you do have guys Like shahied and you just so many other guys THAT i think you're more confident. In But Traveon henderson is the quintessential guy who you would expect in this.
00:30:41
Speaker 1: Game, uh you, know along With shied to score long.
00:30:45
Speaker 2: Touchdowns, uh just blazing, speed you, know carries out of the, backfield can catch the. Ball you, know they could design screens for. Him AND i do think an underrated because we talked about it With Kyle williams And shahid an underrated way That henderson even if he only plays like another four snaps on, offense which he had four to fifty yard runs this, year fifty plus yard, runs so he could still break, one you, know giving his low snap. Count But Travan henderson has returned kicks this. Year now it's A Super. Bowl would you rather Have Deerness johnson Or Trayvon henderson returning your kicks if you're not even gonna Play henderson that much in the, Backfield SO i think there's a chance that they kind of Throw henderson back, there AND i think it would be in the Deerness Johnson, roe because like why. Not but if you'll, remember you, know a lot of hype For henderson right going into this. Year the first kickoff that he ever touched in THE nfl In week one of the preseason against The washington and The. Commanders what did he do with? That he took it a buck one hundred yards goal line and goal line for a. Touchdown and, again he has return kicks this, Year SO i wouldn't be surprised if at some point in the game he's back.
00:31:59
Speaker 1: There maybe they they.
00:32:00
Speaker 2: Save it for an important, time you, know, uh you know sometimes like The niners will do that With Deebo. Samuel but either, WAY i wouldn't be surprised he's he's he's returned nine kicks this, year but hasn't done it Since week eight when he got more involved in the. Offense right, now he's not involved in the. Offense rabel put him back, There, uh but that's just me. Hoping but either way IF i think it kind of evens out because if if he's not back there on on, kickoffs he's probably.
00:32:23
Speaker 1: Going to be more involved in the.
00:32:24
Speaker 2: OFFENSE i, MEAN i think last week was probably the low for him that it was probably the bottom of the. Market so either, way like him to score a long touchdown BECAUSE i think The patriots will need it.
00:32:35
Speaker 1: Too that's that's the other thing. Here so, yeah LIKE.
00:32:37
Speaker 5: I, Said Jason myers doesn't really uh kick too many, touchbacks so any kind of any time he's back there for, kickoff he's likely gonna be able to return, it which.
00:32:47
Speaker 2: Helps, yeah maybe any catch him sleeping the catchum sweeping like you think it's Like Deerne johnson and he just kind of.
00:32:53
Speaker 1: Swapping H, yeah they probably should have him be the return.
00:32:58
Speaker 4: Man there's a undred chance guys though That. Remandre maybe he might have some bumble, lightest you, know and then they just have to Play travion because that happened during the regular season When Travion stock just went through the roof as a. Result so Again i'm just putting that out. There in the biggest game of the, year they really leaned On, ramandre which is Why travion's not in the, backfield but all it takes is one turnover and then we're looking At trevion getting full full time.
00:33:20
Speaker 2: Snaps, yeah, YEAH i THINK i think that is a great, point and that just speaks to you, know listen to our other. Shows we have a bunch out, there BUT i think you want to invest In travion at the tails and the high tail at this point because like it's there's a there's a highlight of.
00:33:36
Speaker 1: It it's just the bottom of the.
00:33:37
Speaker 2: Market he's just too, explosive like you, know to to kind of let that go and in The Super bowl that's kind of difficult to. Handicap, ANYWAY i think there's some nice upside.
00:33:45
Speaker 1: There so that is that's gonna do.
00:33:48
Speaker 2: It Kyle williams Or kerner, Again joe Has rashichihi AND i Have Travion Henderson king of the end on that is the guy who scores the longest touchdown and you get a share of the pot On. Draftings so cool. Contest go check it. Out that's going to do it for our touchdown. Show here on The Action network podcast For Super bowl sixty presented By, DraftKings you can Find Sean kerner at The underscore odds. Maker joe is AT G dog five, THOUSAND dawg.
00:34:14
Speaker 1: Five zero zero.
00:34:15
Speaker 2: Zero i'm At chris Rayboun we're at those same handles on the free award Winning Action network. App if you haven't already check out x ex check out playbook ON. X Don't Don't Take, drugs, kids and check Out playbook ON x Or, twitter whatever you call, it and it will if you could tell it to grab a bet you're looking. For you can screenshot it whatever and it'll create a quick slip link for you in a matter of seconds at the book of your.
00:34:42
Speaker 1: Choice so really.
00:34:43
Speaker 2: Cool, again that Is playbook ON, X, twitter whatever you're calling. It be sure to subscribe to the. Podcast a bunch of episodes Covering Super bowl, props breaking down the, game stuck in AND i had a really good one as, well breaking down the, Game so be sure to check those out and appreciate everybody for tuning in all, year any any Aspects before we get out of, Here Jill kerner.
00:35:09
Speaker 1: Go.
00:35:10
Speaker 5: SEAHAWKS, yea all, right let's let's cash our last parlay of the year here and and the long shot one is fifteen.
00:35:21
Speaker 1: One let's CATCH i went and got that From oh oh, yeah so that was who is that that? Was let me just reiterate Over bobo And.
00:35:31
Speaker 3: Arroyo, yeah fifteen plus, fifteen not, fifty not plus fifteen, hundred fifteen hundred to, One so at a couple of zeros like that's not like, that like That drake and That drake And centralcy on the radar freestyle zero zeros, there like that's.
00:35:47
Speaker 2: Like there's a lot of zeros after that one five on. That so, Yeah i'm gonna have to Go i'm gonna have to go sprinkle on that right when we get out of, here and we're gonna get out of here right. Now, again thank you for tuning. In oh, YEAH i couldn't do it without. You shouts to our, producer shouts To, eddie shouts to deep, paying shouts At giff even though he's not on.
00:36:07
Speaker 1: Here, uh the next time we get this.
00:36:09
Speaker 2: Money h
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action boss.
00:00:07
Speaker 2: All right.
00:00:08
Speaker 3: Here we go from throwing in song spec I'm sitting up to cash stop.
00:00:15
Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.
00:00:20
Speaker 1: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money. All right, this is the ultimate kabay.
00:00:27
Speaker 2: If you want to pass.
00:00:31
Speaker 1: And we are under way. What's going on? Everybody?
00:00:36
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I'm your host, Chris Raybond. It's Super Bowl sixty. It's time for.
00:00:43
Speaker 1: Some anytime touch downs.
00:00:46
Speaker 2: I got my guys Sean Kerner and Jill Golant with me. We're gonna give you a few different bets for the Super Bowl. We're gonna get a parway going favorite long shot. We'll talk King of the End Zone as well. Hit our partway last week with the JSN Kennith Walker, Courtland, Sutton, Jill.
00:01:08
Speaker 1: What's going on? A nice call?
00:01:09
Speaker 2: I believe you were the Sutton leg of that, so it's a nice call on that one. How you feeling heading into Super Bowl sixty.
00:01:16
Speaker 1: I like the matchup.
00:01:17
Speaker 4: I mean I wish I could say I feel great about trying to get behind the Patriots, you know, keeping it close. I still just feel like this is going to be very dominant Seahawks wins. So but we'll see how this game goes. And I think we got some good touchdown bets to line up with that kind of script.
00:01:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, I find it.
00:01:36
Speaker 2: I mean, Kerner, I don't know about you, but from a handicapping perspective, I think this is one of the more kind of fun games to handicap and kind of look it, you know, you know, Okay, what do you think is going to happen? Because I think I maybe it's the defensive head coaches, but I just feel like there's a lot of uncertainty and a lot of different outcomes more than usual, especially because you and I were just kind of talking about how the the Seahawks have been a little bit chalky this postseason.
00:01:58
Speaker 1: But any thoughts on the match?
00:02:01
Speaker 5: Uh? Yeah, I mean we've talked about length now. I think you and I have given out like fifteen bets so far, so why not a few more today?
00:02:09
Speaker 1: Oh? Hell yeah?
00:02:09
Speaker 2: All right, let's and before we get into the touchdowns, I'll toss it over to for a word from our sponsored DraftKings. The Action Network podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred dollars back in bonus bets.
00:02:25
Speaker 1: If your bet wins.
00:02:27
Speaker 2: Love the thrill of live betting, DraftKings has got you covered.
00:02:30
Speaker 1: Bet live on star.
00:02:31
Speaker 2: Player props and in progress games right as they happen. To get started, use promo code Action Network when signing up with DraftKings. Again, use Code Action Network when signing up, and bet five bucks to get three hundred back in bonus bets.
00:02:46
Speaker 1: If your bet wins, the crown is yours, all right, don't forget. If you want to tell some.
00:02:52
Speaker 2: Of the bets, you can look for the quick slip links in the podcast a video descriptions, or go to Action Network dot com slash bet now. So there's only one game, obviously, but so we want to have a you know, obviously, we want to give you guys a bunch of different ways to kind of attack this. Again, I do think there are numerous possibilities just because of the way the matchup sets up. So we're gonna do a We're gonna start with our favorite Super Bowl touchdown parway, So instead of just you know, each given a bet and we couldbine into a parlay at the end. We're gonna do you know, each one of us is gonna kind of give a multi leg parway here with touchdowns. Kerner, you're up first. Where we're going for our Super Bowl sixty parlay.
00:03:37
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna go with both starting tight ends here, so Hunter Henry and AJ Barner and it comes out to ten to one. So I like those odds. And you know the first part of that is Hunter Henry, who you know, stuck. He he's on his over He's made some excellent points. Why you know this is a good spot for him because you know, the Seahawks defense is really good. But if there was the Achilles Hill and there, you know, pass defense, I guess it would be the tight end.
00:04:06
Speaker 1: So I like Henry there.
00:04:08
Speaker 5: Plus he you know, he doesn't always need to rely on cheap tight ends cheap touchdowns, you know, like around the goal line in the end zone. You know, he has three touchdowns over twenty five yards. Five of his eight touchdowns have been you know, over ten yards, so he has multiple ways of getting there. I just hope it doesn't happen in the first quarter because I have his under four and a half yards in the first quarter. Maybe you know, like a four yard touchdown be fine. I'd win both bets. But I think kind of the way to approach Henry is he gets off to such slow starts that if he's you know, shut out in the first quarter, that's probably the best time to actually invest in his touchdown market. It's probably going to be over three to one at that point. So I think the live angle for Henry is start hammering his props, you know, at the end of the first quarter.
00:04:55
Speaker 1: But I digress.
00:04:56
Speaker 5: You know, he's the first leg of this.
00:04:58
Speaker 1: The second leg is.
00:04:59
Speaker 5: My guy, aj barn Or have to go with him. You know, he can get this as a normal pass catching tight end. He has six receiving touchdowns on the season, but you know he has that added upside as the main ball carrier in their tush push play. And I think, you know, with Zach Sharbonay out, that just increases the chances of them kind of leaning on Barner in those you know, short yard situations. I know, Raybun you mentioned it where Kenneth Walker, if it's first and goal on the one, Kenneth Walker might get the first crack at it and if he doesn't get in there, they might be like, Okay, we're done messing around. Get Barner in there, and that might happen because you know, Sharbonay was excellent. Scored nine rushing touchdowns inside the five on eighteen attempts, so about a you know, fifty percent rate. Walker scored on just four of nine rush attempts inside the five, so you know, forty four percent of the time, and that's been kind of a theme with him in his career.
00:05:52
Speaker 1: Last year it was just four.
00:05:53
Speaker 5: Touchdowns on twelve rush attempts inside the five. So he's not really a short yardage back. You know, he's of a home run hitter. So AJ Barner makes a ton of sense to get in there. And he has a ninety percent success rate on the touch push. That's the highest success rate of any ball carrier with ten plus carries on the season. So I don't know why they wouldn't just give it to him if they get you know, goal to go situations. So I like AJ Barner and Hunter Henry to score at ten to one here.
00:06:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, I know Jill is going to talk about Kenneth Walker. I mean, I actually think Barner and Walker probably would struggle to get it in. But the good thing is they could catch the ball too. They can just catch receiving touchdowns. So because the Patriots, man, I mean to running backs, I'll just put it.
00:06:44
Speaker 1: I'll put this stat out there.
00:06:46
Speaker 2: In the game's Milton Williams played, they give up two touchdowns to running backs on two hundred and sixty two carries and overall a one point a one point two touchdown rate percentage in those games, just overall to all players.
00:07:00
Speaker 1: So it's probably gonna have to come through the air.
00:07:03
Speaker 2: So you know, if anyone is out there listening, you know a lot of these touchdowns we like on the Seahawks, like probably want to parlay with something something with Sam Darnold as well, because I think I personally, we think a lot of the stuff is gonna have.
00:07:15
Speaker 1: To kind of come through the air. But Joey, that brings me to you.
00:07:17
Speaker 2: So Kerner had Barner Henry ten to one where we going with your favorite Super Bowl sixty touchdown?
00:07:24
Speaker 1: Parloy?
00:07:24
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, Like, and I know that you were kind of considering whether or not you're gonna take Kenneth Walker for no touchdown, Like at this point, I think you actually do have that bet in the Actually, yeah.
00:07:34
Speaker 2: Last year it was it was Saquon that was one of my favorite, one of my favorite bets to hit because they just never offer those markets, but also because he was the favorite. So yeah, that's that's just a signatory Ray Bond bets.
00:07:44
Speaker 1: No, don't mind me. Well plus plus plus one fifty fifty yeaheah, Yeah, that's pretty good. And I think the main.
00:07:55
Speaker 4: Thing too, the reason why, like again, like I'm still gonna go with Kenneth Walker in this because even though A J. Barner has been effective, he's not there's no Jalen Hurts in this offense to kind of vulter like kind of happened in the Super Bowl last year. Four touchdowns in two playoff games for kW. Like again, I think with it being the Super Bowl, Sharvion a out, he's probably gonna see his highest snap rate of the year. The Seahawks are pretty predictable on offense, ran the ball to the third highest rate in the NFL during the regular season, so if they're expected to win or have a lead in the game, I think that should set up well for more opportunities for Kenneth Walker or in general the running offense for the Seahawks. But next pick, it's our guy, JSN. I think now I've kind of been happy to see that he's arguably, I think the best wide receiver in the NFL right now, Like even when he's not open, he's open, like Sam Darno was kind of made it a priority to target him. A thirty percent target share through two playoff games, very consistent with what we saw during the regular season with that was around thirty two percent. Another thing too, Christian Gonzalez. I know we talk about like how effective he has been since returning, but he's had some issues in coverage, and if they're gonna be playing man coverage, they're thirty first in defensive DV WAIVERSUS wide receiver one. So I would not be shocked if JSN actually scores the first touchdown of Super Bowl sixty. Now the third pick. This bet has kind of been steamed since I bet it. I got it around plus four hundred when the odds first opened up. It's around plus three hundred now, and that's Drake May for an any time touchdown scored last week versus the Broncos led the NFL in total scrambles second in scrambles per game behind Patrick Mahomes. The other thing too, when you look at Drake May splits, his scramble rate tends to take a huge jump when he's not being blitzed. It's like almost four times compared to when he is being blitzed, and the Seahawks bottom five and blitz right per game this season. So I think in a potentially trailing game script, there's gonna be a lot of dropbacks for Drake May, I think, especially in the second half. So I like May to call his oone number near the goal line and get the score. I think the shoulder injury is just overblown. So that's around twelve to one if you want to parlay Drake May, JSN and Kenneth Walker.
00:10:00
Speaker 2: I feel that, you know, I think I think he made some great points about especially Drake May, because you know, it's I think I think the market has been a little overwecautious on him, and and I would argue JSN as well. So that's kind of a teaser where I'm gonna go with my paraway. So I'm gonna go JSN two touchdowns that's at plus five hundred, and then you're throwing that may touchdown, which yeah, a little bit, a little bit overvalued, but you throw it in the paraway with JSN two and now you're at nineteen to one on drafting. So the reason I like this is because this Super Bowl matchup, I think because it's the Super Bowl, because you know, there's record amounts of dollars flowing in in the betting market and whatnot. I'm finding that some of the guys that we would almost never bet on in like the regular season or even maybe the you know, certain parts of the postseason, like just the truck kind of the truck. The things you expect to happen are being like overvalued or being undervalue. Excuse me, they're just kind of being overlooked. Like js is the best player on the field amongst both of these teams, in my opinion. The fact that he's still like, you know, plus five hundred plus five fifty for MVP just because a lot of quarterbacks have one is bonkers to me, especially when you consider median outcome. JSN like is over ninety yards. Sam Donold's median outcome is like two hundred and thirty passing yards. Who would win the MVP in that case? So anyway, But I'm gonna say he goes out there and makes a statement. Christian goan Zaus was targeted sixteen times in that Houston game. Overall, he's been targeted one hundred and one times. That's most of any Patriot, and he did miss some time as well. So I do think that regardless of the coverage scheme, they're gonna find ways to get jas in the ball, and he actually probably him and a guy like Shahid I would say probably also have outside chances of scoring on the ground if anyone does. Because I do think Seattle's gonna have to get creative, yew. I don't know if they're gonna be able to just wine up the traditional run game, whether it is sneaks or just handing it off, but they might be able to, you know, do something like with a fly sweeper, you know, something like that. So I love Jsen to get in twice. And then Drake may best player on the field when he's on the field in my opinion, Like I know, the Seahawks have a great defense, Drake May has been spectacular this year. I would take an injured Drake May to get an the end zone over any other Patriot on this roster. I mean, coming into the year, everyone's like Mike, It's gonna take a while. Vrabel's great, But this rosters and shambles and lo and behold, Drake May carries them to the super Bowl.
00:12:28
Speaker 1: I think he has to carry them in this game.
00:12:30
Speaker 2: I don't think receivers will be opened very often for him, and I think Seattle will sit back and rush for because that's kind of that's what they built the defense to do.
00:12:40
Speaker 1: So that is gonna lead to Drake May running around.
00:12:43
Speaker 2: He's gonna have to break a tackle or two because there are gonna be extra defenders. Emon Warrior I could see him spying on Drake May if it gets to that.
00:12:50
Speaker 1: So but I think Drake May can do it.
00:12:52
Speaker 2: So give me JSN two May one, nineteen to one on DraftKings. Those are our favorite touchdown parways. But we got more show coming up for you. We're gonna give you. We're gonna make a parway together like we always do in honor of you know, hitting it last week. We'll go favorite long shot. I know, before we get out of here, we'll also talk King of the end Zone. You know, that's the you know guy who scores, the longest touchdown, real cool kind of contest they got going on on DraftKings, So we'll get into.
00:13:22
Speaker 1: All of those before we do. Just again render.
00:13:27
Speaker 2: If you want to tail some of the bets from today's show, all the bets, any of the bets, find a quick flip link in the podcast and video description, or visit actionnetwork dot com slash bet now, or even better, you can sign up for Action Pro. Action Pro users get real time alerts as soon as experts like Stuck You, bretd Anderson, Jill Kerner track picks in the Action at You'll also get real time money percentages to see where the smart money is flowing. Sometimes it's dumb money too, but nevertheless you want to see where it's going and access to our NFL player prop projections by Sean Kerner. And right now, to celebrate Super Bowl sixty, you can get sixty dollars off an annual subscription right now. Just go to Actionnetwork dot com slash Pro to get started again. That's sixty dollars off a year of Action Pro. It's go to Action Network dot com slash Pro. All right, so let's do this now, let's come together. You know we kind of argue the merits of some of these different guys, and you know how we think it's it's all gonna play out. So let's go with our favorite anytime touchdown parway presented by Draftings. This is the one where we're each just gonna pick one guy. We are on a streak, a one week streak here, so let's get it. Let's get it going, guys, let's keep it going. I should say, Curney, you're up first. Yeah, so yeah, I just gave out Hunter, Henry and AJ Barner. I'm gonna stick with AJ Barner as my favorite of the two here at plus two forty. You already mentioned that he can get there as a pass catching tight end. He has six receiving touchdowns on the season.
00:14:58
Speaker 5: But the sneaky part with Barner is he could get there with the tush push play at the goal line. And I think with Zach Sharboney out, those chances go up. And it's been extremely effective this year. Ninety percent success rate on his ten toush pushes. That's better than you know, a traditional quarterback sneak. It's the highest success rate of you know, any ballcarrier with ten or more carries. So I think it'd be silly for them not to kind of use that in a high leverage game like the Super Bowl. So give me aj Bartner at plus two forty.
00:15:30
Speaker 4: Jim, all right, I'm gonna take Drake May. It's my favorite touchdown back to Super Bowl sixty. It's too hard to ignore the scramble rate of what we've seen from Drake May during the regular season. I think he's just such a big bodies kind of like a Josh Allen clone. I think he could just bulldoze over some guys to be able to get into the end zone. He scored last week versus the Broncos a very tough run defense as well. So anything over plus two to fifty, let's take Drake May in the spot.
00:15:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm going with JSN here.
00:15:58
Speaker 2: Let's get the anchor going again. I think best player on the field. He's scored in over half his games already this season. And this is a spot, a very unique spot where you know, the Seahawks are facing a defense that just hasn't given up much on the ground, especially in terms of touchdowns. So that you know, with JSM getting such a high target share already and the Seahawks also usually keep guys in the block right, so they there's a fifty percent of the time they keep either a tight end or running back in to block, So that just weaves a more concentrated target share among the guys that are in the route. So JSN that thirty percent target chair, I expect it to go up in this game. So give me JSN minus one ten, Barner at plus two to forty Drake Maytt plus two to seventy JSN at minus one ten. You can parway those at Draftings and you get twenty to one odds. So pretty juicy. That was our favorite anytime touchdown Parway presented by Draftings for Super Bowl sixty. All right, well, add that one to the Parway Express account in the Action App. That's where we track all of our long shots and things like that.
00:17:03
Speaker 1: So go follow.
00:17:04
Speaker 2: Parlay Express if you haven't already on the Action app, have some fun with us some of those longer shots. And again, while you're working at Parlay Express, don't forget again sign up for Action Pro.
00:17:14
Speaker 1: It is great.
00:17:15
Speaker 2: It is the only way for you to get the best bets at the best prices with immediate notifications, which is key when action experts post their picks if these lines do move, so getting those immediate notifications can really come in big depending on which market you're betting in. You could also find those quick slit links for these best in the podcast description or is it Action network dot Com slash bet Now, So we have one game, so let's go a little let's go a little off off the radar on this show. You know, we usually kind of do you know, we're just kind of breaking down the games we give our favorite parlay.
00:17:48
Speaker 1: We can break down some primetime r out of here.
00:17:50
Speaker 2: But for this one, let's call our favorite long shots touchdown.
00:17:54
Speaker 1: Bet in this game.
00:17:56
Speaker 2: I do think this is an interesting one for long shots because they're like the Seahawks have a whole bunch of guys that they kind of like play but like bare we play. And then the Patriots, you know, they they're a little more kind of an open book, and it's kind of shift from game to game. Like I was asking stuck you like, is it gonna be Hooper or Westover or sixth Lineman or is it gonna be Pop Douglas, Like who's the guy that's gonna be kind of that in that game plan so I think this is a fascinating one to pick some long shots.
00:18:24
Speaker 1: Curder start with you where you going.
00:18:26
Speaker 5: Yeah, So if I mean, if we're gonna go with the long shot, might as well go with the long shot here. So I'm gonna go with Jack Westover. He was forty to one this morning. Now he's thirty to one. So you know someone's onto this. Yeah, Like I still like it at thirty to one. You know, he's the Pets fullback, and you know, ever since Antonio Gibson went down in Week five, they've been using west Over a bit more, especially recently. You know, he's seen this app rate in the thirty five forty range the past several games. His routes around rates, you know, in the fifteen percent range. It was, you know, season nine, twenty four percent against the Broncos last game in the Conference championship. So he's kind of in that Nate Adkins kind of troll range there. And you know he's obviously in there just a block. He only has two targets on the season, but this is the game where you know everyone's gonna pull out any trick they have in the bag, and you know, giving west Over a carry or you know, a trick play near the goal line is certainly much more likely to happen in the Super Bowl. So that's why I like him here, but just to kind of catch the Seahawks off guard. But he was He was decent in college. You know, his final season at Washington with Michael Pennix junior there, he was third on the team in receptions of forty six, only behind Roma Dunsday and Jalen Polk. He actually had one more catch than Jalen mcmill which is kind of crazy. So you know, he has some pass touching chops. So if they want to kind of, you know, leverage that in some way here, now's the time to do it. So I think he's worth a sprinkle here at thirty to one.
00:20:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, he he only blocked onie pass block nineteen point three percent of the time on pass plays, so he actually does when he's in on pathways, he does to run route. And I think a big part of Westover and why he's a smart bet is the Patriots offense has.
00:20:32
Speaker 1: Kind of gone a little dyslexic.
00:20:34
Speaker 2: I like to call it, like they went from like a heavy one two to a two to one where instead of Austin Hooper being on a field. It's like west Over now as the fullback former tight end, because I feel like at one point he was the third tight end and then they were like, all right now you're You're just a fullback now. And that's kind of the offense they've been rolling with over the last you know, price since to Buy, which is where we've also seen Drake by Scrambamore and just a lot of different things have changed.
00:20:58
Speaker 1: So I think that is deliverate.
00:21:00
Speaker 2: So yeah, there's a chance Westover out snaps Hooper. I mean last game, I think it was exactly equal on pass plays anyway, So yeah, I like that one at thirty to one. Jill, where were going for our favorite long shot?
00:21:15
Speaker 4: All right, I'm going to recycle a pick from last week. Jake Bobo anytime touchdown anything got ten to one or better. He's around eleven to one right now at DraftKings. He did catch a touchdown in the NFC Championship game, three targets and two playoff games, two of them were in the red zone.
00:21:30
Speaker 1: This has like this reeks.
00:21:32
Speaker 4: Of like a Connor Hayward, Nate Atkinspiel to it where if Bobo is on the field, he's likely to be targeted because technically this season and including the playoffs, he did have these second highest targets per rout run versus man coverages this year on the Seahawks behind JSN. Now, again very small sample only like ten routes, but it supports that if he does play, is a good chance he's gonna get targeted. So I think it's a good alternative. I feel like the Patriots just completely sell out and focus on taking away JSN. Again, easier said than but if they do, receivers like Bobo could just see more usage. I mean he's six'. Four you look at the other guys in, coverage Like Marcus jones is five to, Eight Christian gonzalez his six, feet like he could win in those one on one. Coverages SO i Think Jake bobo attend to one is a fun long shot for this.
00:22:15
Speaker 2: Game oh, man if you could bet on not only like the touchdown, scorer but parlay with the guy who he catches it. On BECAUSE i like that call on On Marcus jones because, YEAH i was looking at that, too like he's a he's a great corner but, undersize and he gave him eight touchdowns this, year which is actually.
00:22:34
Speaker 1: Absurd, yeah.
00:22:37
Speaker 2: Right, Right BUT i Mean i'm just looking at the, numbers Like Jones eve from, eight like eight. Touchdowns there's a lot of, touchdowns especially for a guy who you, knows quality guy otherwise pretty good coverage. Numbers it's not like he was just getting beat all. Day but that's the. Guy you know that The patriots red zone defense has been, bad AND i do think, that you, know because of the lack of the you, know the run, game it's gonna it's gonna come down to the past game in the red. Zone so, YEAH i like that. Call i'm gonna kind of stick with with.
00:23:05
Speaker 3: It.
00:23:05
Speaker 2: Here we're gonna. Go you, know we have already two. Bigs Well bell is not a, big but he's kind of a. BIG i mean he's in there like run block even though he's a. Receiver But i'm gonna go With Elijah arroyo here at at ten to. One and you, know kernel you you AND i kind of talked about this early in the, week and.
00:23:20
Speaker 1: You made a great.
00:23:21
Speaker 2: Point it's like if he's probably just gonna get, refunded if he's like you're gonna get refunded or he's gonna be the number two tight end like. That he's never been the number three tight end in the. Game, yeah, Exactly so you, know there's THERE'S i will say for people, betting if you're like if you have like if you only have one parlay or something, like, yeah like IF i don't know how your, book like every book is, different but there might there's a chance that he gets, scratched which you would just get no. Action but obviously if you're combining with a bunch of different, STUFF i don't know that could upset.
00:23:48
Speaker 1: That But.
00:23:50
Speaker 2: Arroyo is another guy who in this, Game i'm just looking for talent at this point BECAUSE i think it's wide.
00:23:56
Speaker 1: Open uh we know.
00:23:57
Speaker 2: Who we know for the most part who's getting especially on The, seahawks but we you, know The seahawks are the. Favorite we expect them to score more touchdowns or they're more likely of the two And, arroyo it looks like it looks like the last absence was maybe still a little injury, related because you, know it kind of looks like there's more optimism about, him you, know heading into the Super.
00:24:18
Speaker 1: Bowl SO i do think he's gonna suit. Up he's always been.
00:24:21
Speaker 2: The number two tight, end and this is just a guy that has a lot of, talent explosive, guy and in a matchup WHERE i think The seahawks not only around the goal, line but just in, GENERAL i think they're gonna be able to pass heavier than usual because just nobody runs A New england like it's just it's just.
00:24:38
Speaker 1: Absurd But i've been saying it all.
00:24:40
Speaker 2: Playoffs you just don't run On New england and that has kind of led me to some you know a lot of the handicaps That i've been having success, with AND i think a royal kind of sit stands out for that where it's, like, okay if if If seattle can't get it in or they don't trust their run game around the goal, line they're gonna have multiple time ends in. There arroyo has always been the second tight end when he's been, active and he has the talent to beat, linebackers.
00:25:08
Speaker 1: Safeties you, know all those guys For.
00:25:09
Speaker 2: New england that you know have stepped up so big this, year but are still you, know you would say like the weaker points of their defense compared to you, know goodzals In Carlton davis on the outside SO i Think arroyo ten to one is a smart bet here because there is some uncertainty AND i think you're getting a little bit of a discount here with.
00:25:28
Speaker 1: Him so like him at ten to one.
00:25:32
Speaker 2: Again kerner Likes Jack westover And joe's On Jake. Bobo for, me It's Elijah arroyo favorite long, shots.
00:25:39
Speaker 1: MAN i WOULD i would like to see the odje Of we probably all three of, those, ACTUALLY i mean.
00:25:45
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe maybe you can find those well while we get The king of The End. Zone but, yeah so if you're not familiar draftings is a really fun.
00:25:53
Speaker 1: Promotion it's Called king of The End.
00:25:54
Speaker 2: Zone it's essentially you get to place a bet on a player to score a. Touchdown but it's essentially a bet on who's gonna score the longest.
00:26:04
Speaker 1: Touchdown now whoever.
00:26:06
Speaker 2: Else also plays the bet on that player gets a share of the pot of whoever. Wins so it's kind of it has its you, know kind of similar TO dfs in a, way but it's also there's a lot of game theory with you want to have you don't want to just have like the truck, necessarily and now if he is the longest, touchdown like IT'S. JSN i, mean you're just gonna be sharing the pot with more. People so the idea is to try to find the least likely guy who scores the longest, TOUCHDOWN i think is the best way to put. It with that being Said, kerner who you got For king of The End.
00:26:39
Speaker 1: Zone Super bowl.
00:26:39
Speaker 5: Sixty, yeah that's a great way to put. It where if you TAKE, jsn obviously you're more favored to get, it but you're gonna split it with.
00:26:48
Speaker 1: You, know a million.
00:26:49
Speaker 5: People so you just have to decide what your goal. Is so Anytime i'm in a situation like this WHERE i have to risk nothing and it's nothing but, Upside i'm gonna go the craziest route, possible the most. UPSIDE i Think Kyle williams is a good blend of that because he's obviously a long shot to. Score, here he's thirteen to one to, score Which I'm i'm in line, with but you know they're typically going to be longer touchdowns to three touchdowns this year seventy two, yards thirty seven, yards thirty three, yards so he's typically just getting downfield shots maybe catch The seahawks defense off. Guard so he's exactly the type of player where you, know he's probably less likely to, score but if he, hits probably not gonna have to share the pot with too many. People SO i think in these kinds of, SITUATIONS i had to go for upset like. That so give Me Kyle williams.
00:27:35
Speaker 2: Here, yeah and you also get the upside of the kick, returns like he's been on he's been a kick return duty.
00:27:43
Speaker 1: Since oh, yeah.
00:27:44
Speaker 2: Since who do they take Off Afton chisholm Because afton chishom is probably gonna be inactive.
00:27:50
Speaker 5: When M collins came. Back that kind of helped him out. Right, yeah they've been Making, yep that's a great.
00:27:56
Speaker 4: Point he was doing it Over Denis, JOHNSON i think was doing a little bit as, well BUT i think.
00:27:59
Speaker 2: He those are the, Two those are the two main guys that do, it so that those are the two projected. Guys If chisholm is for some reason, active he'd probably take one of those two. Spots but he probably won't be active Because, jennings their other running, back was ruled, out so it would have to be Like johnson will have to be active as that third. Back but, yeah that's that's just an added that's just added upside in that.
00:28:20
Speaker 1: Market, Yeah, jill where we?
00:28:23
Speaker 3: Going All?
00:28:24
Speaker 1: Right this one might probably be the chalky one of the.
00:28:26
Speaker 4: Three Rashid shahed mainly just BECAUSE i was able to cash in on this in the divisional. Round he cashed in FOR us with one hundred yard return touchdown versus The. Niners BUT i think just the fact that there's so many outs With, shahed you, know you have the return game. Angle he's a deep. Threat he leads the team in a dot through both playoff. Games patriots special, teams you don't think of them as like a bad special, teams like the way that The rams were even The. Niners but twentieth in defensive dv away this, year so not. Great and then The seahawks, DEFENSE i think they're gonna make The patriots have the pun a bit more than. USUAL i think that Gives shehat a little bit more opportunities to return some of those. KICKS i think as, well with the amount of man coverage that The patriots, PLAY i think he could also find himself in some single coverage for a deep, touchdown and, especially LIKE i, said if they set out to STOP. Jsn AND i think another thing, too there's that rushing up side out of the. Backfield SO i know that we want to talk about guys that don't have you don't have to share the pod as. Much BUT i think out of any player in this, game he has the most upside to likely win this given all the different angles that he could score from a long.
00:29:29
Speaker 2: Range, yeah and you know what you, Heat it's it's funny because he's he's got like room for growth as a, Receiver like he's cash these as a, returner like what three four times as a seahawk alone, already but done absolutely nothing as a. Receiver so they're like that that you, know WE i think we saw, UNFORTUNATELY i THINK i think it was one of us was ON i think it Was turner was on the like under shaheat and he got like a fifty one yard or. Something but like that was like the only that's the first time we saw. IT i think we're gonna see more of that at some, point and you would think it would be in The Super.
00:30:05
Speaker 4: Bowl so and it was probably his only catch of the game.
00:30:07
Speaker 2: Too oh, YEAH i mean but and you all, right So i'm just get into mind and you mentioned like you have the talky Guy, Joe this should be the trucky Guy Traveon.
00:30:17
Speaker 1: Henderson but.
00:30:20
Speaker 2: We don't know how much is gonna play love that for this market because that is going to depress his. OWNERSHIP i think a little bit in terms of how many people you, know really end, up you, know sticking with him as the pick when you, know you do have guys Like shahied and you just so many other guys THAT i think you're more confident. In But Traveon henderson is the quintessential guy who you would expect in this.
00:30:41
Speaker 1: Game, uh you, know along With shied to score long.
00:30:45
Speaker 2: Touchdowns, uh just blazing, speed you, know carries out of the, backfield can catch the. Ball you, know they could design screens for. Him AND i do think an underrated because we talked about it With Kyle williams And shahid an underrated way That henderson even if he only plays like another four snaps on, offense which he had four to fifty yard runs this, year fifty plus yard, runs so he could still break, one you, know giving his low snap. Count But Travan henderson has returned kicks this. Year now it's A Super. Bowl would you rather Have Deerness johnson Or Trayvon henderson returning your kicks if you're not even gonna Play henderson that much in the, Backfield SO i think there's a chance that they kind of Throw henderson back, there AND i think it would be in the Deerness Johnson, roe because like why. Not but if you'll, remember you, know a lot of hype For henderson right going into this. Year the first kickoff that he ever touched in THE nfl In week one of the preseason against The washington and The. Commanders what did he do with? That he took it a buck one hundred yards goal line and goal line for a. Touchdown and, again he has return kicks this, Year SO i wouldn't be surprised if at some point in the game he's back.
00:31:59
Speaker 1: There maybe they they.
00:32:00
Speaker 2: Save it for an important, time you, know, uh you know sometimes like The niners will do that With Deebo. Samuel but either, WAY i wouldn't be surprised he's he's he's returned nine kicks this, year but hasn't done it Since week eight when he got more involved in the. Offense right, now he's not involved in the. Offense rabel put him back, There, uh but that's just me. Hoping but either way IF i think it kind of evens out because if if he's not back there on on, kickoffs he's probably.
00:32:23
Speaker 1: Going to be more involved in the.
00:32:24
Speaker 2: OFFENSE i, MEAN i think last week was probably the low for him that it was probably the bottom of the. Market so either, way like him to score a long touchdown BECAUSE i think The patriots will need it.
00:32:35
Speaker 1: Too that's that's the other thing. Here so, yeah LIKE.
00:32:37
Speaker 5: I, Said Jason myers doesn't really uh kick too many, touchbacks so any kind of any time he's back there for, kickoff he's likely gonna be able to return, it which.
00:32:47
Speaker 2: Helps, yeah maybe any catch him sleeping the catchum sweeping like you think it's Like Deerne johnson and he just kind of.
00:32:53
Speaker 1: Swapping H, yeah they probably should have him be the return.
00:32:58
Speaker 4: Man there's a undred chance guys though That. Remandre maybe he might have some bumble, lightest you, know and then they just have to Play travion because that happened during the regular season When Travion stock just went through the roof as a. Result so Again i'm just putting that out. There in the biggest game of the, year they really leaned On, ramandre which is Why travion's not in the, backfield but all it takes is one turnover and then we're looking At trevion getting full full time.
00:33:20
Speaker 2: Snaps, yeah, YEAH i THINK i think that is a great, point and that just speaks to you, know listen to our other. Shows we have a bunch out, there BUT i think you want to invest In travion at the tails and the high tail at this point because like it's there's a there's a highlight of.
00:33:36
Speaker 1: It it's just the bottom of the.
00:33:37
Speaker 2: Market he's just too, explosive like you, know to to kind of let that go and in The Super bowl that's kind of difficult to. Handicap, ANYWAY i think there's some nice upside.
00:33:45
Speaker 1: There so that is that's gonna do.
00:33:48
Speaker 2: It Kyle williams Or kerner, Again joe Has rashichihi AND i Have Travion Henderson king of the end on that is the guy who scores the longest touchdown and you get a share of the pot On. Draftings so cool. Contest go check it. Out that's going to do it for our touchdown. Show here on The Action network podcast For Super bowl sixty presented By, DraftKings you can Find Sean kerner at The underscore odds. Maker joe is AT G dog five, THOUSAND dawg.
00:34:14
Speaker 1: Five zero zero.
00:34:15
Speaker 2: Zero i'm At chris Rayboun we're at those same handles on the free award Winning Action network. App if you haven't already check out x ex check out playbook ON. X Don't Don't Take, drugs, kids and check Out playbook ON x Or, twitter whatever you call, it and it will if you could tell it to grab a bet you're looking. For you can screenshot it whatever and it'll create a quick slip link for you in a matter of seconds at the book of your.
00:34:42
Speaker 1: Choice so really.
00:34:43
Speaker 2: Cool, again that Is playbook ON, X, twitter whatever you're calling. It be sure to subscribe to the. Podcast a bunch of episodes Covering Super bowl, props breaking down the, game stuck in AND i had a really good one as, well breaking down the, Game so be sure to check those out and appreciate everybody for tuning in all, year any any Aspects before we get out of, Here Jill kerner.
00:35:09
Speaker 1: Go.
00:35:10
Speaker 5: SEAHAWKS, yea all, right let's let's cash our last parlay of the year here and and the long shot one is fifteen.
00:35:21
Speaker 1: One let's CATCH i went and got that From oh oh, yeah so that was who is that that? Was let me just reiterate Over bobo And.
00:35:31
Speaker 3: Arroyo, yeah fifteen plus, fifteen not, fifty not plus fifteen, hundred fifteen hundred to, One so at a couple of zeros like that's not like, that like That drake and That drake And centralcy on the radar freestyle zero zeros, there like that's.
00:35:47
Speaker 2: Like there's a lot of zeros after that one five on. That so, Yeah i'm gonna have to Go i'm gonna have to go sprinkle on that right when we get out of, here and we're gonna get out of here right. Now, again thank you for tuning. In oh, YEAH i couldn't do it without. You shouts to our, producer shouts To, eddie shouts to deep, paying shouts At giff even though he's not on.
00:36:07
Speaker 1: Here, uh the next time we get this.
00:36:09
Speaker 2: Money h
