OM DETTA AVSNITT
Bond markets are pricing a tightening cycle. Equity markets are arguably pricing a productivity boom. Both can't be right for long.
This week's Charts of the Week looks at why the current combination is so unusual — and what would end it.
→ Policy rates expected higher in every major economy
→ AI hiring spreading well beyond the US
→ Output accelerating, core inflation still falling
→ The global capex cycle has turned
→ Pay growth has halved while unemployment barely moved
→ Power costs climbing where the data centres are
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USA
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ANDRA EPISODER I DENNA PODCAST
The real economy has refused to buckle. Through a year of tariffs, conflict and tighter money, global growth has held up — and firmer growth has sat naturally alongside higher yields. Indeed, what stands out is why those yields are climbing: almost entirely the real rate and behind it the deeper qu…
The global economy has held up better than a noisy summer might suggest, with tensions in the Middle East, intervention to steady the yen, and nerves over AI spending all unsettling sentiment — yet the data have stayed firm and the pressure on interest rates has been upward, not down. In this week'…
In this week’s podcast, Andy talks with Sharmila Whelan from Westbourne Research.
Long-term interest rates are back near two-decade highs. The short end has eased as soft US data pare back Fed tightening bets, but the long end keeps climbing on deeper, structural forces. Many of this week’s charts…
The Federal Reserve held rates again this week, but the more consequential story is the investment cycle now lifting the real cost of capital — and whether all that spending will pay off. This week's charts trace it from the Fed to the physical constraints that will decide the outcome:
Fed hold…
In this episode, Andy Cates is joined by Daniel Jerrett, PhD — founder of SmartMacro Labs and Haver's official training partner — to get past the noise around AI and ask what the technology actually changes for economists and investment teams. They discuss why most teams are stuck in a prompt loop …
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