DAIM: Inside The Algorithm | Hybrid Simulation, Model Reuse and AI in NHS Planning

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Planning healthcare at scale is one of the most consequential challenges facing the NHS. In this inaugural episode of our new show, Inside The Algorithm, Cambridge Spark’s Chief AI Officer, Dr Jeremy Bradley, is joined by Dr Lucy Morgan, Head of Simulation at the NHS Strategy Unit, to explore how simulation modelling and AI are being used to tackle that challenge head-on.

Lucy led the development of a hybrid simulation model for renal replacement therapy, which began with the Midlands Kidney Network and is now being rolled out nationally. She breaks down how the model works, combining system dynamics with discrete event simulation to project future demand and model patient pathways through dialysis and transplant.

The conversation moves into the harder questions: how do you validate a model in a live healthcare environment, how do you rebuild trust with new organisations who weren't part of the original build, and where does AI fit into making models more portable and reproducible?

Lucy also shares her current research interest in using AI agents to help NHS staff query and interrogate analytical models directly, without needing deep modelling expertise themselves.

A rich, technically substantive episode for anyone working at the intersection of AI, simulation and real-world deployment.

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Liked this episode? Why not listen to the conversation Dr Raoul Gabriel Urma had with Ming Tang from the NHS on the Data & AI Mastery podcast: 

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/transforming-healthcare-through-data-ai-human-centred/id1779783413?i=1000736381325

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/27wqHT0dnRMwKMedj2uoTw?si=5aabd4015dfa425d

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JERGmZUumvA

Glossary Terms

Model reproducibility: the ability to obtain consistent computational results using the same input data, code, and environment

Neural Network: a method in artificial intelligence that teaches computers to process data in a way that is inspired by the human brain

Sequential Hybrid Simulation Model: a modeling approach that combines two or more distinct simulation paradigms (such as System Dynamics, Discrete-Event Simulation, or Agent-Based Simulation) by running them in a specific order, where the output of the first model acts as the input for the next

System Dynamics: a computer-aided modeling methodology used to understand, analyse, and manage complex, dynamic systems over time

Stock-flow System: a foundational system dynamics modelling concept mapping how quantities (stocks) accumulate over time, influenced by rates of change (flows)

Chapter Markers

(00:00) - Opening: The case for AI-assisted simulation in the NHS

(02:11) - About the NHS Strategy Unit and the backwards consultancy model

(05:04) - Tackling NHS waiting lists with queuing theory

(10:26) - Complexity of scheduling: theatre capacity, rotas and prioritisation

(13:42) - Introducing the renal replacement therapy planning model

(18:32) - Data sources, model calibration and validation

(23:00) - Rolling the model out nationally: trust, workshops and participative modelling

(26:47) - A call to the community: sharing best practices in model reproducibility

Useful Links

Connect with Dr Lucy Morgan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lucy-morgan-97072041/

For more AI insights follow Jeremy on LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/jeremy-bradley

Explore Cambridge Spark’s AI upskilling programmes at https://www.cambridgespark.com