00:00:00
Speaker 1: Beef media relogists in Fox thirty one, one of the most important guys around because you know he controls the weather. All right, Dave, let's talk about the super because a lot of news media outlets are starting to talk about the intended effects. And I know we've talked about it on prior incarnations of Weather Wednesday. But are we getting more data? Is there more do we? Are we seeing a better idea of what to expect? Are these still just best guests on on history's basis's several times?
00:00:31
Speaker 2: Here? Is that?
00:00:33
Speaker 3: Obviously that means a different weather pattern for the upcoming fall.
00:00:37
Speaker 2: And when do we've already.
00:00:38
Speaker 3: Seen a transition over to that pattern? We always get monsoon rains in the summer, but evidence by last weekend, you can tell that the atmosphere, you know, did a little better as far as rainfall totals in a lot of places, except for your listener who questioned about Forton.
00:00:55
Speaker 4: Yeah.
00:00:56
Speaker 3: The bottom line is the computer modeling that we use to make our predictions is leaning towards ninety percent or maybe a little higher than that, that the atmosphere in the Pacific, the waters of the Pacific will be at a certain degree that is above normal.
00:01:16
Speaker 4: And above normal means you know, a super almino.
00:01:20
Speaker 3: And what we're seeing is the readings in the equatorial Pacific are starting to match what those predictions are. So the confidence is growing that yes, we can see that. And I think what they're looking at now, I think last time we talked a month ago, we were talking about a two point five degree above average, and now they're saying it could be a three point.
00:01:41
Speaker 2: Five to three point six.
00:01:42
Speaker 5: And what that does is it just loads the atmosphere.
00:01:45
Speaker 3: Changes It loads the atmosphere with moisture, and it changes the storm tracks.
00:01:49
Speaker 2: So the southern United.
00:01:51
Speaker 5: States will do really.
00:01:53
Speaker 3: Well with moisture as we get into the Alnino season and we get into fall in winter.
00:01:58
Speaker 2: The northwest corner will not do as well.
00:02:01
Speaker 5: And while Colorado doesn't sit into.
00:02:03
Speaker 3: Either one of those categories, we do expect good moisture to push over the rocky mountains and if we need time out storms, the possibility, and those are the terms that meteorologists love to use, exists that we could have a really good winter, not only for the mountains, which are you heard the news the other day EasTone which added guns.
00:02:23
Speaker 4: I forget how many years ago they're looking to open in October. They're so crazy garged about the Super Almino.
00:02:29
Speaker 2: They're ready to go. They're trying to get ready.
00:02:31
Speaker 3: For October, and then all the other veil resorts will follow suit in early to late.
00:02:35
Speaker 4: November, so they're all excited about it.
00:02:38
Speaker 1: Well, I went to GBT this morning and I asked to go back the last forty years to the times when we were at a temperature level with a super Almena like we may see this winter. And Denver across the board had higher average temperatures over the winter, but way more snow like, way like forty inches more than we normally get on.
00:03:00
Speaker 2: The front range.
00:03:01
Speaker 1: So what about the rest of the state. I had someone specifically say, please ask Dave Fraser what this means for the southwest part of the state.
00:03:09
Speaker 2: You know it should do well.
00:03:11
Speaker 3: Again, the more more of the southern United States, and that would include southern Colorado.
00:03:16
Speaker 2: Will do better.
00:03:18
Speaker 3: The southwest mountains the San Juans have not done well in the last couple of winters, and they have continued to try and get out of a drought.
00:03:26
Speaker 5: We all know that the central mountains in Colorado.
00:03:29
Speaker 3: At the worst route right now in the state. You know, everybody has some level of drought, and we're hoping to see improvement tomorrow.
00:03:36
Speaker 4: By the way, given last weekend's range.
00:03:38
Speaker 2: We'll get an update on that, but.
00:03:40
Speaker 5: The central mountains could use it.
00:03:42
Speaker 3: Generally, the northwest corner of the state doesn't do as well in an El Nino pattern, but the front range, as you just mentioned, does, And the records for Al Nino's you know, the history of Elnius only goes back to like nineteen fifty, so.
00:03:57
Speaker 2: We don't have a huge database for this.
00:04:00
Speaker 3: You know, it's a little more than a you know, what is it, seventy five seventy six years, so it's a good base to look at. But when you start to look at the computer models and what.
00:04:10
Speaker 2: They're spitting out, this clearly.
00:04:12
Speaker 3: Goes to the top of the list of probabilities of what could be a supercharged all menial.
00:04:17
Speaker 1: A lot of people on the text line saying some variation of I want cooler weather, When is that coming?
00:04:23
Speaker 5: Well, we got a couple of hot days ahead.
00:04:26
Speaker 3: We will be in the mid to upper nineties the next two days. We are transitioning, you know, we're beyond the halfway point here. The days are already getting shorter, some of the warmest temperatures. Denver's average high is now down to eighty seven. We'll continue to see that drop off.
00:04:41
Speaker 2: So I mean, honestly, the hottest part of summer is behind us.
00:04:45
Speaker 3: I would expect it as we get in the next few weeks.
00:04:48
Speaker 4: It's the overnight lows that will make.
00:04:50
Speaker 2: The biggest difference.
00:04:51
Speaker 4: Even though afternoon highs can reach.
00:04:53
Speaker 3: You know, eighty eight, eighty nine to ninety degrees, but at this time of the year, it's not that summer heat. It basically you get a little bit of a spike in the afternoon and then immediately things start to cool off. So I'd say give it a couple of weeks and it should start to improve.
00:05:06
Speaker 1: So when do we get fake fall? Because we'd get fake fall and then it gets hot again. So when is fake fall? I want fake fall. I'm ready for that.
00:05:14
Speaker 3: Dave Frasier, Yeah, yeah, I would. I would hope that it isn't a fake fall. I would hope it's a straight on full fall because.
00:05:22
Speaker 5: If El Nino does what we think it might do, we may go into a cool.
00:05:27
Speaker 3: Pattern in the fall and then stay there and not come back out, and.
00:05:30
Speaker 5: That would be okay by me.
00:05:32
Speaker 4: I think a lot of people would be okay.
00:05:34
Speaker 2: You know.
00:05:35
Speaker 3: Right now, I think it's all smiles, it's all excitement about what a supercharged El Nino could mean for us this winter. But I guarantee you in about two or three months from now, if it does pan out, I'll be talking with you about people complaining about shovel and snow.
00:05:50
Speaker 1: Ay, not me, mister Wheedy. The moisture. Okay, somebody asked about the northeast or excuse me, the Nebraska Panhandle. Are the planes gonna get it, like like we're going.
00:06:03
Speaker 4: To get it?
00:06:03
Speaker 2: Are they that area?
00:06:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the kind of the cutoff the farther north and east you go.
00:06:10
Speaker 5: So I think I think what you have to take into consideration.
00:06:13
Speaker 3: Is Denver, the Front Range and the mountains benefit because of our topography, the way the wind flows, and we can get lyft the southern United States, and by that, I mean you know you're talking southern California. You're talking Arizona and New Mexico and Texas and into the southeast and Florida.
00:06:34
Speaker 2: Those areas will do well.
00:06:36
Speaker 3: The farther north you go probably going to be a little drier, doesn't mean you won't get cold air, intrusions and blacks of.
00:06:42
Speaker 4: Arctic air and some snow at times.
00:06:44
Speaker 3: It doesn't mitigate the entire winter.
00:06:47
Speaker 2: It's an overall pattern. When we're done.
00:06:50
Speaker 3: And we average out the winter at the end of the winter, there are some parts of the country that will do better.
00:06:55
Speaker 2: With moisture and others that will not.
00:06:57
Speaker 3: And that's a south north relationship.
00:06:59
Speaker 2: South that are not as much all.
00:07:01
Speaker 1: Right, One last question, boy, this is a fancy one. How does the El Nino southern oscillation interact with the Pacific decatal oscillation. I don't even know what those words mean, but I'll let you handle it, Dave. I really want to ask a question. This is all cyclical, the l Nino and the super Alminia and all that. This is like a normal weather pattern, right, yeah, I mean when.
00:07:24
Speaker 3: We talk about weather, you know, the generally weather is the day to day. Climate is the thirty year average. And climate also goes to what you would expect in different parts of the world based on where they are.
00:07:36
Speaker 2: So you know, West coasts are.
00:07:38
Speaker 3: Generally cold water climate. East coasts tend to.
00:07:41
Speaker 2: Be a little warmer. Middle parts of the continent tend to be dry.
00:07:45
Speaker 3: So it's relationships between you know, the Earth's surface and the huge bodies of water that you know, three quarters of the planet is covered by water. So it's those interactions that you would expect certain type of weather. But there is a thirty year average.
00:07:58
Speaker 2: That we look at.
00:07:59
Speaker 3: So and you know, in thirty years from now, if I told you today's average high was eighty seven, that doesn't mean in thirty years from now that that average high might fluctuate or change. So it's the it's the relationships and when we look at El Nino's and we look at those different types.
00:08:13
Speaker 5: Of pattern they have. I mean, three quarters of the planet is covered in water.
00:08:17
Speaker 2: Obviously it has.
00:08:17
Speaker 3: A huge influence on what drives our weather. Where's the water going, what's the jetstream? Look at what's the trajectory, what's the temperature profile.
00:08:25
Speaker 2: It's all connected. The planet Earth.
00:08:28
Speaker 3: Is fluid when it comes to weather, and it's it's got ebbs and flows and you.
00:08:33
Speaker 5: Know, tidal surges and this and that.
00:08:35
Speaker 3: All I could do is sit at the you know, is go down to the ocean front just watch the ocean.
00:08:39
Speaker 4: That's the same thing the atmosphere's doing, all.
00:08:41
Speaker 1: Right, Dave Frasier. Good to talk to you. Texter did ask one last question. I'm curious if Dave was not a meteorologist, what would you what would your career be.
00:08:51
Speaker 4: You know, early on, when I was before I got out of high school.
00:08:54
Speaker 3: My dad worked for Delta Airlines, not as a pilot, but as a mechanic, and I was very interested in in being a pilot.
00:09:01
Speaker 2: I used to fly like you did. I used to fly for free.
00:09:04
Speaker 5: On my dad's passes, and I just.
00:09:05
Speaker 2: Got really into aviation.
00:09:08
Speaker 4: But for one reason or another, college changed my trajectory.
00:09:11
Speaker 1: If I had it to do again, I would also be a pilot. I'm not even kidding. I have always loved flying. But when I was young, and I could have made that decision at the time, it didn't occur to me that women could be pilots because there just weren't very many, you know, there were so few. It just never even occurred to me. Another thing we have in common, day, Fraser. We'll talk to you again next week, my friend. All right, have a great weekend, you too, you too, all right, guys, we'll be right back
Speaker 1: Beef media relogists in Fox thirty one, one of the most important guys around because you know he controls the weather. All right, Dave, let's talk about the super because a lot of news media outlets are starting to talk about the intended effects. And I know we've talked about it on prior incarnations of Weather Wednesday. But are we getting more data? Is there more do we? Are we seeing a better idea of what to expect? Are these still just best guests on on history's basis's several times?
00:00:31
Speaker 2: Here? Is that?
00:00:33
Speaker 3: Obviously that means a different weather pattern for the upcoming fall.
00:00:37
Speaker 2: And when do we've already.
00:00:38
Speaker 3: Seen a transition over to that pattern? We always get monsoon rains in the summer, but evidence by last weekend, you can tell that the atmosphere, you know, did a little better as far as rainfall totals in a lot of places, except for your listener who questioned about Forton.
00:00:55
Speaker 4: Yeah.
00:00:56
Speaker 3: The bottom line is the computer modeling that we use to make our predictions is leaning towards ninety percent or maybe a little higher than that, that the atmosphere in the Pacific, the waters of the Pacific will be at a certain degree that is above normal.
00:01:16
Speaker 4: And above normal means you know, a super almino.
00:01:20
Speaker 3: And what we're seeing is the readings in the equatorial Pacific are starting to match what those predictions are. So the confidence is growing that yes, we can see that. And I think what they're looking at now, I think last time we talked a month ago, we were talking about a two point five degree above average, and now they're saying it could be a three point.
00:01:41
Speaker 2: Five to three point six.
00:01:42
Speaker 5: And what that does is it just loads the atmosphere.
00:01:45
Speaker 3: Changes It loads the atmosphere with moisture, and it changes the storm tracks.
00:01:49
Speaker 2: So the southern United.
00:01:51
Speaker 5: States will do really.
00:01:53
Speaker 3: Well with moisture as we get into the Alnino season and we get into fall in winter.
00:01:58
Speaker 2: The northwest corner will not do as well.
00:02:01
Speaker 5: And while Colorado doesn't sit into.
00:02:03
Speaker 3: Either one of those categories, we do expect good moisture to push over the rocky mountains and if we need time out storms, the possibility, and those are the terms that meteorologists love to use, exists that we could have a really good winter, not only for the mountains, which are you heard the news the other day EasTone which added guns.
00:02:23
Speaker 4: I forget how many years ago they're looking to open in October. They're so crazy garged about the Super Almino.
00:02:29
Speaker 2: They're ready to go. They're trying to get ready.
00:02:31
Speaker 3: For October, and then all the other veil resorts will follow suit in early to late.
00:02:35
Speaker 4: November, so they're all excited about it.
00:02:38
Speaker 1: Well, I went to GBT this morning and I asked to go back the last forty years to the times when we were at a temperature level with a super Almena like we may see this winter. And Denver across the board had higher average temperatures over the winter, but way more snow like, way like forty inches more than we normally get on.
00:03:00
Speaker 2: The front range.
00:03:01
Speaker 1: So what about the rest of the state. I had someone specifically say, please ask Dave Fraser what this means for the southwest part of the state.
00:03:09
Speaker 2: You know it should do well.
00:03:11
Speaker 3: Again, the more more of the southern United States, and that would include southern Colorado.
00:03:16
Speaker 2: Will do better.
00:03:18
Speaker 3: The southwest mountains the San Juans have not done well in the last couple of winters, and they have continued to try and get out of a drought.
00:03:26
Speaker 5: We all know that the central mountains in Colorado.
00:03:29
Speaker 3: At the worst route right now in the state. You know, everybody has some level of drought, and we're hoping to see improvement tomorrow.
00:03:36
Speaker 4: By the way, given last weekend's range.
00:03:38
Speaker 2: We'll get an update on that, but.
00:03:40
Speaker 5: The central mountains could use it.
00:03:42
Speaker 3: Generally, the northwest corner of the state doesn't do as well in an El Nino pattern, but the front range, as you just mentioned, does, And the records for Al Nino's you know, the history of Elnius only goes back to like nineteen fifty, so.
00:03:57
Speaker 2: We don't have a huge database for this.
00:04:00
Speaker 3: You know, it's a little more than a you know, what is it, seventy five seventy six years, so it's a good base to look at. But when you start to look at the computer models and what.
00:04:10
Speaker 2: They're spitting out, this clearly.
00:04:12
Speaker 3: Goes to the top of the list of probabilities of what could be a supercharged all menial.
00:04:17
Speaker 1: A lot of people on the text line saying some variation of I want cooler weather, When is that coming?
00:04:23
Speaker 5: Well, we got a couple of hot days ahead.
00:04:26
Speaker 3: We will be in the mid to upper nineties the next two days. We are transitioning, you know, we're beyond the halfway point here. The days are already getting shorter, some of the warmest temperatures. Denver's average high is now down to eighty seven. We'll continue to see that drop off.
00:04:41
Speaker 2: So I mean, honestly, the hottest part of summer is behind us.
00:04:45
Speaker 3: I would expect it as we get in the next few weeks.
00:04:48
Speaker 4: It's the overnight lows that will make.
00:04:50
Speaker 2: The biggest difference.
00:04:51
Speaker 4: Even though afternoon highs can reach.
00:04:53
Speaker 3: You know, eighty eight, eighty nine to ninety degrees, but at this time of the year, it's not that summer heat. It basically you get a little bit of a spike in the afternoon and then immediately things start to cool off. So I'd say give it a couple of weeks and it should start to improve.
00:05:06
Speaker 1: So when do we get fake fall? Because we'd get fake fall and then it gets hot again. So when is fake fall? I want fake fall. I'm ready for that.
00:05:14
Speaker 3: Dave Frasier, Yeah, yeah, I would. I would hope that it isn't a fake fall. I would hope it's a straight on full fall because.
00:05:22
Speaker 5: If El Nino does what we think it might do, we may go into a cool.
00:05:27
Speaker 3: Pattern in the fall and then stay there and not come back out, and.
00:05:30
Speaker 5: That would be okay by me.
00:05:32
Speaker 4: I think a lot of people would be okay.
00:05:34
Speaker 2: You know.
00:05:35
Speaker 3: Right now, I think it's all smiles, it's all excitement about what a supercharged El Nino could mean for us this winter. But I guarantee you in about two or three months from now, if it does pan out, I'll be talking with you about people complaining about shovel and snow.
00:05:50
Speaker 1: Ay, not me, mister Wheedy. The moisture. Okay, somebody asked about the northeast or excuse me, the Nebraska Panhandle. Are the planes gonna get it, like like we're going.
00:06:03
Speaker 4: To get it?
00:06:03
Speaker 2: Are they that area?
00:06:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the kind of the cutoff the farther north and east you go.
00:06:10
Speaker 5: So I think I think what you have to take into consideration.
00:06:13
Speaker 3: Is Denver, the Front Range and the mountains benefit because of our topography, the way the wind flows, and we can get lyft the southern United States, and by that, I mean you know you're talking southern California. You're talking Arizona and New Mexico and Texas and into the southeast and Florida.
00:06:34
Speaker 2: Those areas will do well.
00:06:36
Speaker 3: The farther north you go probably going to be a little drier, doesn't mean you won't get cold air, intrusions and blacks of.
00:06:42
Speaker 4: Arctic air and some snow at times.
00:06:44
Speaker 3: It doesn't mitigate the entire winter.
00:06:47
Speaker 2: It's an overall pattern. When we're done.
00:06:50
Speaker 3: And we average out the winter at the end of the winter, there are some parts of the country that will do better.
00:06:55
Speaker 2: With moisture and others that will not.
00:06:57
Speaker 3: And that's a south north relationship.
00:06:59
Speaker 2: South that are not as much all.
00:07:01
Speaker 1: Right, One last question, boy, this is a fancy one. How does the El Nino southern oscillation interact with the Pacific decatal oscillation. I don't even know what those words mean, but I'll let you handle it, Dave. I really want to ask a question. This is all cyclical, the l Nino and the super Alminia and all that. This is like a normal weather pattern, right, yeah, I mean when.
00:07:24
Speaker 3: We talk about weather, you know, the generally weather is the day to day. Climate is the thirty year average. And climate also goes to what you would expect in different parts of the world based on where they are.
00:07:36
Speaker 2: So you know, West coasts are.
00:07:38
Speaker 3: Generally cold water climate. East coasts tend to.
00:07:41
Speaker 2: Be a little warmer. Middle parts of the continent tend to be dry.
00:07:45
Speaker 3: So it's relationships between you know, the Earth's surface and the huge bodies of water that you know, three quarters of the planet is covered by water. So it's those interactions that you would expect certain type of weather. But there is a thirty year average.
00:07:58
Speaker 2: That we look at.
00:07:59
Speaker 3: So and you know, in thirty years from now, if I told you today's average high was eighty seven, that doesn't mean in thirty years from now that that average high might fluctuate or change. So it's the it's the relationships and when we look at El Nino's and we look at those different types.
00:08:13
Speaker 5: Of pattern they have. I mean, three quarters of the planet is covered in water.
00:08:17
Speaker 2: Obviously it has.
00:08:17
Speaker 3: A huge influence on what drives our weather. Where's the water going, what's the jetstream? Look at what's the trajectory, what's the temperature profile.
00:08:25
Speaker 2: It's all connected. The planet Earth.
00:08:28
Speaker 3: Is fluid when it comes to weather, and it's it's got ebbs and flows and you.
00:08:33
Speaker 5: Know, tidal surges and this and that.
00:08:35
Speaker 3: All I could do is sit at the you know, is go down to the ocean front just watch the ocean.
00:08:39
Speaker 4: That's the same thing the atmosphere's doing, all.
00:08:41
Speaker 1: Right, Dave Frasier. Good to talk to you. Texter did ask one last question. I'm curious if Dave was not a meteorologist, what would you what would your career be.
00:08:51
Speaker 4: You know, early on, when I was before I got out of high school.
00:08:54
Speaker 3: My dad worked for Delta Airlines, not as a pilot, but as a mechanic, and I was very interested in in being a pilot.
00:09:01
Speaker 2: I used to fly like you did. I used to fly for free.
00:09:04
Speaker 5: On my dad's passes, and I just.
00:09:05
Speaker 2: Got really into aviation.
00:09:08
Speaker 4: But for one reason or another, college changed my trajectory.
00:09:11
Speaker 1: If I had it to do again, I would also be a pilot. I'm not even kidding. I have always loved flying. But when I was young, and I could have made that decision at the time, it didn't occur to me that women could be pilots because there just weren't very many, you know, there were so few. It just never even occurred to me. Another thing we have in common, day, Fraser. We'll talk to you again next week, my friend. All right, have a great weekend, you too, you too, all right, guys, we'll be right back
