WEBVTT
00:00:09.099 --> 00:00:12.359
Welcome to Roaming Returns, a podcast about generating
00:00:12.359 --> 00:00:15.220
a passive income with dividend stocks so you
00:00:15.220 --> 00:00:17.780
can secure your finances and liberate your life.
00:00:18.160 --> 00:00:21.039
This is our Q3 update for the conservative retirement
00:00:21.039 --> 00:00:24.320
portfolio, the boring on purpose account that's
00:00:24.320 --> 00:00:27.140
supposed to be steady, resilient, and not constantly
00:00:27.140 --> 00:00:30.059
lighting things on fire. And honestly, it did
00:00:30.059 --> 00:00:33.079
its job. Dividends ticked up slightly, the account
00:00:33.079 --> 00:00:35.420
value moved higher, and we made a few changes
00:00:35.420 --> 00:00:37.840
to clean up risk without turning this into some
00:00:37.840 --> 00:00:40.420
high -yield circus. This episode is really about
00:00:40.420 --> 00:00:42.759
what slow and steady looks like in real numbers,
00:00:42.960 --> 00:00:45.340
and why the right move in a low -risk portfolio
00:00:45.340 --> 00:00:47.979
is not always the same move we'd make in one
00:00:47.979 --> 00:00:51.939
with a longer time horizon. We're back. We have
00:00:51.939 --> 00:00:56.840
the quarter three dividend report for the conservative
00:00:56.840 --> 00:01:00.240
portfolio today. It did what it's supposed to.
00:01:00.259 --> 00:01:01.820
So that's about all we have to say about it.
00:01:01.880 --> 00:01:03.600
We'll go over the numbers here quickly, but it
00:01:03.600 --> 00:01:06.260
did exactly what I wanted to. There were some
00:01:06.260 --> 00:01:08.159
changes, but we'll get into that. So this is
00:01:08.159 --> 00:01:10.939
the quarter three. Conservative. Conservative
00:01:10.939 --> 00:01:12.560
report. And then we're going to compare it to
00:01:12.560 --> 00:01:14.359
the quarter two conservative report to get an
00:01:14.359 --> 00:01:17.159
idea. And if you're not interested in the conservative,
00:01:17.359 --> 00:01:19.200
we have another episode coming up with our main
00:01:19.200 --> 00:01:21.099
one, which is kind of like a hybrid middle between
00:01:21.099 --> 00:01:24.159
risk slash high yield. And then we're going to
00:01:24.159 --> 00:01:26.239
do another one for the high yield, high ETF.
00:01:27.079 --> 00:01:28.900
So pick your poison. Right. Pick your poison.
00:01:28.920 --> 00:01:30.379
We're separating them so those of you who are
00:01:30.379 --> 00:01:32.700
not interested don't have to watch the other
00:01:32.700 --> 00:01:35.099
ones. And as always, we will have a link in the
00:01:35.099 --> 00:01:38.879
show notes for the spreadsheet if you do not
00:01:38.879 --> 00:01:42.840
have access to the YouTube video. Okay. In the
00:01:42.840 --> 00:01:45.599
conservative... portfolio in quarter three, which
00:01:45.599 --> 00:01:47.980
was June 1st through August 31st. We actually
00:01:47.980 --> 00:01:51.859
only had one sale and that was we sold YMAX on
00:01:51.859 --> 00:01:55.379
August 6th. The reason for that was the payouts
00:01:55.379 --> 00:01:57.340
distributions were getting smaller and smaller
00:01:57.340 --> 00:02:00.280
and smaller. And NAV declined? The NAV was declined,
00:02:00.459 --> 00:02:01.980
but it was kind of - But it was more the payments?
00:02:02.159 --> 00:02:04.140
It was the payments. The NAV kind of solidified
00:02:04.140 --> 00:02:06.180
between seven and eight dollars, but the payments
00:02:06.180 --> 00:02:08.439
were down to like five and six cents. Is that
00:02:08.439 --> 00:02:10.159
one of the ones that you sold right before the
00:02:10.159 --> 00:02:11.699
last one came out and it was like really, really,
00:02:11.740 --> 00:02:14.539
really bad? Yes. Okay. So he made a good decision.
00:02:14.659 --> 00:02:18.039
But we made out with a pretty good profit in
00:02:18.039 --> 00:02:20.180
YMAX, actually. We made out with, I think it
00:02:20.180 --> 00:02:24.180
was 70 % total return on it. So, like, it's just,
00:02:24.219 --> 00:02:28.300
if you're disciplined with the YieldMax and the
00:02:28.300 --> 00:02:31.500
Roundhill ETFs, the offerings, you can actually
00:02:31.500 --> 00:02:33.460
make money on them, but you have to be disciplined.
00:02:33.860 --> 00:02:37.080
And you have to have the right strategy. Reinvesting
00:02:37.080 --> 00:02:40.479
is not advisable most of the time. Most of the
00:02:40.479 --> 00:02:43.659
time, but, like, at the same time, like, So selling
00:02:43.659 --> 00:02:46.500
for a loss isn't the end of the world if it prohibits
00:02:46.500 --> 00:02:49.740
a huger loss down the road. Right. If it prohibits
00:02:49.740 --> 00:02:51.479
more loss and you can actually take that money
00:02:51.479 --> 00:02:53.219
and put it somewhere else, that'll generate more
00:02:53.219 --> 00:02:57.240
capital or a safer actual investment. So just
00:02:57.240 --> 00:02:59.340
sometimes it's better to lock in a loss to move
00:02:59.340 --> 00:03:01.439
it because you can also write that off tax -wise
00:03:01.439 --> 00:03:05.539
or offset that with gains. And for additions
00:03:05.539 --> 00:03:08.319
in the conservative portfolio for the third quarter,
00:03:08.360 --> 00:03:13.210
we actually had five. We added SNY, Sanofi. the
00:03:13.210 --> 00:03:16.169
pharmaceutical company on July 2nd. We've added
00:03:16.169 --> 00:03:20.270
an Intel 50 -year bond on July 2nd as well. The
00:03:20.270 --> 00:03:26.189
CUISP number is 458 -140 -BK5. I don't have that
00:03:26.189 --> 00:03:28.150
anywhere in the sheets, but they actually do
00:03:28.150 --> 00:03:30.210
have an Intel bond that's 50 years that you collect
00:03:30.210 --> 00:03:32.389
like 4 .5 % on. So that's a good place to park
00:03:32.389 --> 00:03:34.650
money while you're waiting. You actually bought
00:03:34.650 --> 00:03:36.710
a 50 -year bond? Yeah. That's awesome. I got
00:03:36.710 --> 00:03:41.560
it for like $53. So it's like 47 % off. Undervalued.
00:03:41.560 --> 00:03:43.159
So if they call it back, he wins Juicy. If they
00:03:43.159 --> 00:03:45.460
call it back, I win Juicy. Or in the meantime,
00:03:45.699 --> 00:03:48.280
while I'm waiting to maybe put that money to
00:03:48.280 --> 00:03:50.680
you somewhere else, it should, in theory, go
00:03:50.680 --> 00:03:54.159
closer to the NAV or the par value at some point.
00:03:54.240 --> 00:03:55.979
Right. And he's not locked into that for 50 years.
00:03:56.039 --> 00:03:57.419
That's just a place to store capital, especially
00:03:57.419 --> 00:03:59.460
if you buy it that undervalued. You can get out
00:03:59.460 --> 00:04:01.599
with some of those costs that happen with bonds.
00:04:03.280 --> 00:04:05.240
We've done this numerous times in the conservative
00:04:05.240 --> 00:04:07.520
portfolio where we purchased bonds that are undervalued,
00:04:07.520 --> 00:04:11.479
like 30%, 40 % undervalued, and we actually sold
00:04:11.479 --> 00:04:14.219
them back and made 20%, 30%. So it's nothing
00:04:14.219 --> 00:04:15.580
new if you've been following the conservative
00:04:15.580 --> 00:04:18.839
portfolio. This is just newer because it's 50
00:04:18.839 --> 00:04:21.779
years as opposed to like five. Yeah, that's crazy.
00:04:22.040 --> 00:04:25.180
We also added RNTY, which is the yield max real
00:04:25.180 --> 00:04:29.360
estate, 12 % ETF. We added that on July 21st.
00:04:30.060 --> 00:04:33.560
We added VSNT, which is a communications kind
00:04:33.560 --> 00:04:36.519
of like Comcast, a communications stock. We added
00:04:36.519 --> 00:04:40.600
that on 7 -30 -2026. And we added the closed
00:04:40.600 --> 00:04:43.959
-ended fund STK on August 6th. And I talked about
00:04:43.959 --> 00:04:46.500
that a lot in the weekly updates. That closed
00:04:46.500 --> 00:04:48.379
-ended fund is really good. It's about 9 % to
00:04:48.379 --> 00:04:52.000
10 % undervalued. It's a technology growth. closing
00:04:52.000 --> 00:04:54.500
the fund, that pays about 3 % to 4 % dividend.
00:04:54.620 --> 00:04:56.199
So you're getting the growth component, plus
00:04:56.199 --> 00:04:58.240
you're getting the dividend recompounding, plus
00:04:58.240 --> 00:04:59.600
you're getting the price appreciation because
00:04:59.600 --> 00:05:01.759
it's so undervalued. So those are the five additions
00:05:01.759 --> 00:05:04.019
to the conservative portfolio. I like all of
00:05:04.019 --> 00:05:06.579
them. I like the valuation on all of them. I
00:05:06.579 --> 00:05:11.240
think they will be held for years. RNTY maybe
00:05:11.240 --> 00:05:12.480
or maybe not, depending on what happened with
00:05:12.480 --> 00:05:14.060
real estate, but the four of the five are really
00:05:14.060 --> 00:05:19.829
good. So data. In quarter two, we made $4 ,378
00:05:19.829 --> 00:05:23.709
.69 in dividends in this conservative portfolio.
00:05:23.949 --> 00:05:28.470
In quarter three, we made $4 ,413 .45. So that's
00:05:28.470 --> 00:05:31.810
about $40 more in dividends. So it went up a
00:05:31.810 --> 00:05:34.180
little bit. That's what you want, like slow and
00:05:34.180 --> 00:05:36.540
steady in the retirement portfolio. Your principal's
00:05:36.540 --> 00:05:39.319
staying intact and you actually are accruing
00:05:39.319 --> 00:05:41.319
more dividends via the drip. And I was really
00:05:41.319 --> 00:05:43.300
happy to see that for at least one of these portfolios
00:05:43.300 --> 00:05:45.120
because we did not have that same increase in
00:05:45.120 --> 00:05:46.439
the other ones. And we'll explain why when we
00:05:46.439 --> 00:05:48.779
get to the other portfolios. So then we broke
00:05:48.779 --> 00:05:51.000
it down the month versus month. March would be
00:05:51.000 --> 00:05:54.519
the first month of quarter two. We had $1 ,633
00:05:54.519 --> 00:05:58.490
.71. Versus June, which is the first month of
00:05:58.490 --> 00:06:02.790
quarter three, we had $1 ,672 .73. So that went
00:06:02.790 --> 00:06:06.050
up pretty good. April, the second month, we had
00:06:06.050 --> 00:06:11.490
$1 ,335 .70 versus July, where we had $1 ,272
00:06:11.490 --> 00:06:15.930
.30. So that went down some. And then May, we
00:06:15.930 --> 00:06:21.709
had $1 ,409 .28 versus August of $1 ,468 .42.
00:06:22.490 --> 00:06:26.160
So the difference can be explained. Pretty easily
00:06:26.160 --> 00:06:29.180
for what happened here. In April, you notice
00:06:29.180 --> 00:06:34.199
the April we had about... $60 -ish more than
00:06:34.199 --> 00:06:37.220
we did in July. In April, we had the Milan bond
00:06:37.220 --> 00:06:40.019
that paid us $52, and we had Stillwater, which
00:06:40.019 --> 00:06:41.660
paid their irregular dividend. They only pay
00:06:41.660 --> 00:06:43.240
a dividend out every six months, and it was at
00:06:43.240 --> 00:06:46.959
$54. So that's $106 difference. So that April
00:06:46.959 --> 00:06:49.720
total should have been $106 less, which would
00:06:49.720 --> 00:06:52.480
have then been less than the July total. So I'm
00:06:52.480 --> 00:06:54.939
not worried about the numbers in this case. No,
00:06:54.959 --> 00:06:56.720
I didn't realize we actually had semi -annual
00:06:56.720 --> 00:07:00.379
payers. Yeah. Interesting. So we have the drip
00:07:00.379 --> 00:07:04.379
off on RNTY. We're recouping the initial investment
00:07:04.379 --> 00:07:08.139
value. We have $1 ,476 to recoup in RNTY. That
00:07:08.139 --> 00:07:10.120
is a new holding, remember. We have the drip
00:07:10.120 --> 00:07:14.060
off on BSM. We have $1 ,954 to recoup in that
00:07:14.060 --> 00:07:17.300
one. We have the drip off on LFGY. We have about
00:07:17.300 --> 00:07:21.480
$1 ,280 left to recoup in LFGY. We have the drip
00:07:21.480 --> 00:07:25.040
off on Trinity Capital, $1 ,831 to recoup, and
00:07:25.040 --> 00:07:26.759
that one's recouping pretty quickly. I mean,
00:07:26.779 --> 00:07:29.959
I could... So BSM, Trinity, Hercules Capital,
00:07:30.120 --> 00:07:33.060
XYLD, I could recoup, and AIPR. Actually, a lot
00:07:33.060 --> 00:07:36.240
of these I could recoup the initial right now
00:07:36.240 --> 00:07:37.779
if I wanted to because we're up a lot in them.
00:07:37.860 --> 00:07:39.980
But I'm not. I'm letting the dividends actually
00:07:39.980 --> 00:07:44.100
recoup it slower just to see. We also have the
00:07:44.100 --> 00:07:47.139
drip off on Hercules Capital, HTGC. We owe about
00:07:47.139 --> 00:07:51.480
$3 ,861 on that one yet. And we have the drip
00:07:51.480 --> 00:07:55.360
off on XYLD, which is the S &P 500 covered call.
00:07:56.240 --> 00:07:59.699
You got a lot left on that one. We owe $5 ,740
00:07:59.699 --> 00:08:02.439
on that one yet. And we have the drip off on
00:08:02.439 --> 00:08:06.540
AIPI. We owe $2 ,620 on that one. Now that sounds
00:08:06.540 --> 00:08:09.279
bad, but Trinity is worth about $6 ,000. So I
00:08:09.279 --> 00:08:11.459
literally could liquidate $1 ,800 and have Trinity
00:08:11.459 --> 00:08:14.319
paid off. Hercules is about $8 ,000. So I could
00:08:14.319 --> 00:08:17.540
liquidate $3 ,800 and have about $4 ,200 left
00:08:17.540 --> 00:08:20.480
in Hercules. And XYLD is about $12 ,000 right
00:08:20.480 --> 00:08:22.620
now. So I'd have like $7 ,000 left over. So while
00:08:22.620 --> 00:08:25.839
I'm saying I could recoup the initial... tomorrow
00:08:25.839 --> 00:08:28.920
if i wanted to i'm actually not i'm kind of doing
00:08:28.920 --> 00:08:31.699
it slow and steady to see what happens but we'll
00:08:31.699 --> 00:08:34.639
see um we have the drip off collecting cash already
00:08:34.639 --> 00:08:37.940
recouped on sbsw stillwater and nvdy we have
00:08:37.940 --> 00:08:39.480
actually already recouped the initial so we're
00:08:39.480 --> 00:08:41.480
just using that cash to put it in other things
00:08:41.480 --> 00:08:43.399
and we have the drip off where we have to do
00:08:43.399 --> 00:08:46.519
a manual reinvestment on thta because vanguard's
00:08:46.519 --> 00:08:48.870
trash It won't let me turn the drip on in that
00:08:48.870 --> 00:08:51.169
one. I absolutely am going to move out of Vanguard
00:08:51.169 --> 00:08:53.129
when I go home to see my parents this year to
00:08:53.129 --> 00:08:55.409
get my mom to sign the papers to see. And we'll
00:08:55.409 --> 00:08:57.070
document that process of transferring because
00:08:57.070 --> 00:08:59.049
if you hate your brokerage and you're going through
00:08:59.049 --> 00:09:01.470
the same situation, it is very cumbersome to
00:09:01.470 --> 00:09:03.610
change something. And it's gotten to the point
00:09:03.610 --> 00:09:05.350
where he complained so bad that I'm tired of
00:09:05.350 --> 00:09:06.870
hearing about him. So I'm going to actually make
00:09:06.870 --> 00:09:09.470
that effort to get it moved into Schwab. Vanguard's
00:09:09.470 --> 00:09:11.830
horrible. And they just updated the software,
00:09:12.149 --> 00:09:14.570
updated the site. And it's worse. And it's worse
00:09:14.570 --> 00:09:17.429
than it was before. It's like God. Government
00:09:17.429 --> 00:09:20.269
DMV stuff. I understand that there's a time and
00:09:20.269 --> 00:09:21.990
place for it because if you invest in Vanguard
00:09:21.990 --> 00:09:24.389
funds, you're getting it for the 0 % like fees
00:09:24.389 --> 00:09:25.929
and everything. That's fine. But if you're actually
00:09:25.929 --> 00:09:28.210
doing stuff outside of Vanguard funds, it is
00:09:28.210 --> 00:09:30.409
very tedious and cumbersome and it's annoying
00:09:30.409 --> 00:09:32.129
as shit. And like I said before, some people
00:09:32.129 --> 00:09:33.629
don't have a preference with Vanguard because
00:09:33.629 --> 00:09:36.779
it might actually be who their employers. 401k
00:09:36.779 --> 00:09:38.620
or whatever is through. So if you're stuck with
00:09:38.620 --> 00:09:40.279
it, it is what it is. And if you're in the funds,
00:09:40.299 --> 00:09:42.080
they do have benefits with the lower funds that
00:09:42.080 --> 00:09:44.500
are Vanguard funds or lower fees for Vanguard
00:09:44.500 --> 00:09:46.820
funds. But if you have an option and you hate
00:09:46.820 --> 00:09:49.250
it. like we do, we're going to make the effort
00:09:49.250 --> 00:09:52.169
to change because it's just annoying. So in the
00:09:52.169 --> 00:09:55.269
retirement conservative portfolio, we have a
00:09:55.269 --> 00:09:57.289
few that are overvalued that I would not touch
00:09:57.289 --> 00:10:01.450
right now. JEPQ is one. XYLD is one. NBXG is
00:10:01.450 --> 00:10:08.590
another one. UAN, Pepsi, PEP, TRMD, ADM, SWKS,
00:10:08.590 --> 00:10:12.909
and TGT are all overvalued. Don't invest in those.
00:10:13.419 --> 00:10:15.659
But the best undervalued holdings in this one
00:10:15.659 --> 00:10:19.440
are SNY, which we just picked up, DX, which is
00:10:19.440 --> 00:10:23.639
a Emory UPS, which everyone knows, STWD, which
00:10:23.639 --> 00:10:28.460
is a real estate trust, REIT, Ozark, OZK, which
00:10:28.460 --> 00:10:31.179
is a regional bank, ARCC, which is like the best,
00:10:31.299 --> 00:10:34.759
biggest BDC, HTGC, which is like the biggest
00:10:34.759 --> 00:10:37.840
like life sciences and venture capitalists, BDC,
00:10:37.960 --> 00:10:40.059
and STK, which we've already mentioned. Those
00:10:40.059 --> 00:10:43.179
are all very... undervalued. And as he just said,
00:10:43.179 --> 00:10:45.200
the overvalued holdings not buying in right now,
00:10:45.240 --> 00:10:47.039
but if you're already in them and you have the
00:10:47.039 --> 00:10:48.799
ability to turn the drip off and you're willing
00:10:48.799 --> 00:10:50.820
to maintenance a little bit more to move that
00:10:50.820 --> 00:10:53.740
capital into something undervalued manually,
00:10:54.120 --> 00:10:57.159
you can turn drip off in those as well to get
00:10:57.159 --> 00:10:59.940
a faster compounding in something else. Or you
00:10:59.940 --> 00:11:02.039
could leave it dripped on. That's totally your
00:11:02.039 --> 00:11:03.919
call, but you can actually compound your capital
00:11:03.919 --> 00:11:06.139
faster if you go from something overvalued to
00:11:06.139 --> 00:11:09.340
undervalued. Yeah, that's... We've talked about
00:11:09.340 --> 00:11:12.580
that previously. Once you notice things, valuation,
00:11:12.759 --> 00:11:14.980
you can play with the drip and compound faster.
00:11:15.179 --> 00:11:17.100
Right. The starting balance in the conservative
00:11:17.100 --> 00:11:21.139
portfolio on June 1st was $212 ,980. And the
00:11:21.139 --> 00:11:25.340
ending balance on August 31st was $221 ,777.
00:11:25.340 --> 00:11:29.299
So we made 4 .13 % in the third quarter in this
00:11:29.299 --> 00:11:32.500
portfolio, about almost $9 ,000 in capital gains.
00:11:33.019 --> 00:11:37.299
That's capital gains. That's not total cost basis?
00:11:37.740 --> 00:11:41.279
No, I didn't just separate that. Okay. So that's
00:11:41.279 --> 00:11:43.759
that. We actually have the buy up to sheet for
00:11:43.759 --> 00:11:47.240
this. Go over real quick. The retirement portfolio
00:11:47.240 --> 00:11:50.259
is the left one. You'll see like the ones I've
00:11:50.259 --> 00:11:54.120
mentioned, JAPQ is vastly overvalued. XYLD is
00:11:54.120 --> 00:11:56.820
almost. So if you're in the sheet, when you go
00:11:56.820 --> 00:11:59.159
into the sheets, the ones that are overvalued
00:11:59.159 --> 00:12:01.820
are red. And the ones that are undervalued are
00:12:01.820 --> 00:12:03.559
green. The ones that are white are kind of fair
00:12:03.559 --> 00:12:06.259
market, I assume. Fair market or buy at your
00:12:06.259 --> 00:12:07.919
own risk. Do more research. And then the ones
00:12:07.919 --> 00:12:09.860
that are actually the ticker colored blue are
00:12:09.860 --> 00:12:12.539
the ones that we have the drip off. So up to
00:12:12.539 --> 00:12:14.240
you if you want to follow suit or not, but we're
00:12:14.240 --> 00:12:15.759
just sharing that information for transparency.
00:12:17.059 --> 00:12:20.539
Yeah. So like you see JPQ is really overvalued.
00:12:20.820 --> 00:12:23.379
You'll see MBXG is really overvalued. You'll
00:12:23.379 --> 00:12:25.600
see UAN is really overvalued. So like the ones
00:12:25.600 --> 00:12:28.340
in red are really, really overvalued. The ones
00:12:28.340 --> 00:12:31.940
in white are about. Fair. They're about close.
00:12:32.059 --> 00:12:35.080
Like you see Starbuck, SBW, SBLK right down there.
00:12:35.120 --> 00:12:38.600
It was at 31 .17 and buy up to 30. So that one
00:12:38.600 --> 00:12:41.899
could be a red, but it like that one. So current
00:12:41.899 --> 00:12:44.179
event dictated that that 30 could actually go
00:12:44.179 --> 00:12:46.539
up to 35 like in next week. Now that buy up to
00:12:46.539 --> 00:12:48.980
price, is that the expert opinion? Because I
00:12:48.980 --> 00:12:50.720
knew you were doing that before. Or is that your
00:12:50.720 --> 00:12:54.480
new equation? It's my best case guess for people
00:12:54.480 --> 00:12:57.279
to make money. So when he says that, what he
00:12:57.279 --> 00:13:00.600
means is a stock has a specific dividend yield
00:13:00.600 --> 00:13:03.100
and a buy up to that buy up to gives you a little
00:13:03.100 --> 00:13:05.460
bit of safety margin so that if it actually has
00:13:05.460 --> 00:13:07.700
a reduction in price, you're not completely like
00:13:07.700 --> 00:13:10.899
negating the dividend payouts. So that gives
00:13:10.899 --> 00:13:17.169
you a cushion. I'm combining like a. decent entry
00:13:17.169 --> 00:13:19.750
price with the dividend cushion what i call the
00:13:19.750 --> 00:13:22.690
dividend cushion like you'll see aipi for example
00:13:22.690 --> 00:13:26.090
first when it yields 35 so you have a big cushion
00:13:26.090 --> 00:13:28.769
that you can get in at but if you buy up to 37
00:13:28.769 --> 00:13:31.769
.50 i think you'll still like you should still
00:13:31.769 --> 00:13:34.899
make a pretty good amount of that 34 If you bought
00:13:34.899 --> 00:13:37.740
up to $37 .50, if you bought at like $42, that
00:13:37.740 --> 00:13:40.159
would reduce your dividend cushion by a lot because
00:13:40.159 --> 00:13:42.019
you're overpaying a lot for something. Which
00:13:42.019 --> 00:13:43.659
means it could have a pullback and actually,
00:13:43.720 --> 00:13:46.179
again, negate that dividend payout. So we're
00:13:46.179 --> 00:13:48.539
trying to help you keep your portfolio in the
00:13:48.539 --> 00:13:50.950
green. as opposed to having those red pullbacks
00:13:50.950 --> 00:13:52.669
if you're somebody who's more susceptible to
00:13:52.669 --> 00:13:55.009
having that negative emotion when you see those
00:13:55.009 --> 00:13:57.269
negative values in your account. Not that those
00:13:57.269 --> 00:13:59.049
are necessarily a bad thing because everything's
00:13:59.049 --> 00:14:01.590
in flux, but from an emotional sentiment and
00:14:01.590 --> 00:14:03.830
an undervalue standpoint, he builds this into
00:14:03.830 --> 00:14:06.570
the buy up to price. And the only ones that really
00:14:06.570 --> 00:14:09.909
increased from quarter two, and we did this to
00:14:09.909 --> 00:14:12.549
quarter three, Hercules went from 18 to 19 because
00:14:12.549 --> 00:14:16.570
of finances and their earnings report. I think
00:14:16.570 --> 00:14:20.070
Triple M went from 155 up to 180. That one really,
00:14:20.129 --> 00:14:21.990
that one had a really good earnings and a really
00:14:21.990 --> 00:14:24.929
good projection moving forward. So that one went
00:14:24.929 --> 00:14:27.269
from like 155 up to 180. So that one actually
00:14:27.269 --> 00:14:29.590
technically is a buy, but like it's really expensive
00:14:29.590 --> 00:14:32.149
for less than 2 % yield. So that doesn't make
00:14:32.149 --> 00:14:37.389
a lot of sense. SM went from 3250 up to 40, but
00:14:37.389 --> 00:14:40.350
that's mainly because the cost of oil went up
00:14:40.350 --> 00:14:45.220
so much. Civvy SM. BKH went from 72 up to 75.
00:14:45.700 --> 00:14:48.039
They had a pretty good earnings and it's a utility.
00:14:48.080 --> 00:14:50.139
And I think that one has more room to run. But
00:14:50.139 --> 00:14:52.080
again, it's pretty close to fair value. Might
00:14:52.080 --> 00:14:55.259
want to wait for a pullback. 75, 71 is not that
00:14:55.259 --> 00:15:00.139
great of a spread. NAD and NZF, both actually,
00:15:00.240 --> 00:15:03.559
they're the two tax advantage ones you can use.
00:15:03.600 --> 00:15:06.019
Like if you have a taxable account, you don't
00:15:06.019 --> 00:15:08.179
have to pay like federal tax on those. Those
00:15:08.179 --> 00:15:10.460
are actually... doing really well. So I like
00:15:10.460 --> 00:15:13.139
those. And those actually went from $11 .50 up
00:15:13.139 --> 00:15:15.799
to $12 and from $12 up to $12 .50. So there's
00:15:15.799 --> 00:15:18.779
a pretty good chance of like 10%, 12 % return
00:15:18.779 --> 00:15:21.320
on those two if you want a tax -advantaged bond
00:15:21.320 --> 00:15:23.399
fund. And that is a moot point if you're actually
00:15:23.399 --> 00:15:26.139
already in a retirement account. And if you bought
00:15:26.139 --> 00:15:27.919
ADM and we mentioned it in the retirement account,
00:15:28.019 --> 00:15:31.399
you're welcome because that one went from $50
00:15:31.399 --> 00:15:34.039
up to $86 plus you've accrued a lot of dividends.
00:15:34.100 --> 00:15:36.139
That one's a really good one, but it's super
00:15:36.139 --> 00:15:39.379
overvalued. And like my valuation metrics is
00:15:39.379 --> 00:15:42.399
not like I don't look at like the... The experts
00:15:42.399 --> 00:15:44.259
opinion on that, I actually have a formula where
00:15:44.259 --> 00:15:47.500
I plug in the projected growth by the experts.
00:15:47.639 --> 00:15:49.919
Then I have my own growth, which is derived from
00:15:49.919 --> 00:15:52.299
the return on equity, return on the payout ratio,
00:15:52.399 --> 00:15:55.879
return on EPS projections. And then I combine
00:15:55.879 --> 00:15:58.519
it all together. So that's 75 is actually the
00:15:58.519 --> 00:16:00.960
experts high opinion, which is they say like
00:16:00.960 --> 00:16:03.500
92 and my low opinion, which I think it's about
00:16:03.500 --> 00:16:06.440
68. So we come up with a 75. That's how we come
00:16:06.440 --> 00:16:09.240
up with that buy up to point. So it's not all
00:16:09.240 --> 00:16:11.399
just my formula. I actually incorporate the experts
00:16:11.399 --> 00:16:13.519
into it, but that's - In case they're missing
00:16:13.519 --> 00:16:15.399
something you're not. Yeah, or I'm - Or you are.
00:16:15.759 --> 00:16:17.299
Yeah, I'm missing something they're not or they're
00:16:17.299 --> 00:16:18.919
missing something I'm not. I said that backwards.
00:16:19.460 --> 00:16:21.759
So that one's just really overvalued. Like stay
00:16:21.759 --> 00:16:24.220
away from that one. That's the corn one. I understand.
00:16:24.259 --> 00:16:25.980
So if you have this position and you did get
00:16:25.980 --> 00:16:27.700
in when we got in, what are you doing with this?
00:16:27.740 --> 00:16:29.299
You just turn the drip off? Oh, I just have the
00:16:29.299 --> 00:16:31.639
drip on. I don't care. Okay. Because it could
00:16:31.639 --> 00:16:33.320
go up to a hundred and some dollars. It's a corn
00:16:33.320 --> 00:16:35.710
stock. I was just wondering what the default
00:16:35.710 --> 00:16:37.230
process is. But I wouldn't get into it for anything
00:16:37.230 --> 00:16:40.769
above $75. Okay. So a new purchase, new entry
00:16:40.769 --> 00:16:43.330
would not be advisable because we don't know
00:16:43.330 --> 00:16:45.909
and it could actually pull back. If you got into
00:16:45.909 --> 00:16:47.549
T -Row, when we mentioned T -Row, you're welcome.
00:16:47.629 --> 00:16:50.500
That one's up like 40%. If you got into Target,
00:16:50.600 --> 00:16:52.120
when we mentioned Target, you're welcome because
00:16:52.120 --> 00:16:54.440
that one's up like 100 % since we got into it.
00:16:54.559 --> 00:16:56.960
Are you serious? Yeah. Target's like 80 -some
00:16:56.960 --> 00:16:58.879
percent. That's even with the pullback. It was
00:16:58.879 --> 00:17:03.679
like $170 or $160 -some a couple weeks ago. I
00:17:03.679 --> 00:17:05.279
think that one was depressed because of that.
00:17:06.700 --> 00:17:09.140
The DEI stuff that happened and they had like
00:17:09.140 --> 00:17:10.880
a problem with sales. So that had like a sentiment
00:17:10.880 --> 00:17:12.420
issue. You'll see the bottom four there are the
00:17:12.420 --> 00:17:16.420
new ones, SNY, RNTY, VSNT, and STK. They're all.
00:17:17.319 --> 00:17:21.039
primed for buying i think um for example like
00:17:21.039 --> 00:17:23.700
sny i have a buy it to a 50 but that one should
00:17:23.700 --> 00:17:26.000
be like worth about a hundred dollars so like
00:17:26.000 --> 00:17:27.900
if you get in before 50 you're probably going
00:17:27.900 --> 00:17:29.359
to double your money in that one over the next
00:17:29.359 --> 00:17:34.140
few years rnty is 50 because that normally doesn't
00:17:34.140 --> 00:17:35.880
have a lot of NAV erosion. It normally trades
00:17:35.880 --> 00:17:39.759
around 50. VSNT, that one should be about $80.
00:17:39.980 --> 00:17:42.059
So if you get into that one under 42, you're
00:17:42.059 --> 00:17:43.799
going to make more than 100 % on that one. And
00:17:43.799 --> 00:17:47.299
STK should be about 55 based on their historical
00:17:47.299 --> 00:17:49.759
discount and premium to NAV. So if you get into
00:17:49.759 --> 00:17:52.000
that one before 55, you're going to be really
00:17:52.000 --> 00:17:53.559
good. That one holds like all the tech growth
00:17:53.559 --> 00:17:55.319
stocks. So that's a really good one to get into
00:17:55.319 --> 00:17:59.039
if you're worried about growth and income, because
00:17:59.039 --> 00:18:01.089
you're going to get both. That's why we got into
00:18:01.089 --> 00:18:02.490
that one in the retirement account. Those are
00:18:02.490 --> 00:18:04.029
really nice. And I do want to mention too with
00:18:04.029 --> 00:18:06.809
Target. Target is a really good example of a
00:18:06.809 --> 00:18:09.430
really bad negative news sentiment. And I think
00:18:09.430 --> 00:18:11.269
back when we talked about it initially, we said
00:18:11.269 --> 00:18:14.029
that this will turn around. This will pass. This
00:18:14.029 --> 00:18:16.210
will whatever. So you buy stuff that has that
00:18:16.210 --> 00:18:18.470
sentiment contrarian thing that happens and then
00:18:18.470 --> 00:18:20.829
look where it went back up to. Like it followed
00:18:20.829 --> 00:18:22.470
exactly. And then the only one, the last one
00:18:22.470 --> 00:18:25.430
I'll talk about is SWKS. We just talked about
00:18:25.430 --> 00:18:31.059
this in the weekly podcast. both accounts in
00:18:31.059 --> 00:18:33.680
swks because i don't know what it's going to
00:18:33.680 --> 00:18:36.720
do i have a buy up to 75 but because it's merging
00:18:36.720 --> 00:18:39.900
with quervo it could be 130 it would be like
00:18:39.900 --> 00:18:41.980
it's its share price but because i don't know
00:18:41.980 --> 00:18:43.700
what it's doing and they cut their dividend i
00:18:43.700 --> 00:18:45.680
just took my initial out and i'm just letting
00:18:45.680 --> 00:18:47.559
whatever i have left which is in the retirement
00:18:47.559 --> 00:18:50.319
account it's about 17 shares it can do whatever
00:18:50.319 --> 00:18:52.279
it wants i don't have to put any effort and thought
00:18:52.279 --> 00:18:55.750
into it so that's why So Skyworks, I have 17
00:18:55.750 --> 00:18:57.750
in the retirement account and I have like 17
00:18:57.750 --> 00:18:59.049
shares that are going to do whatever they do.
00:18:59.130 --> 00:19:02.329
If the Cuervo merger happens and it's a success,
00:19:02.549 --> 00:19:04.430
you're going to get the capital appreciation
00:19:04.430 --> 00:19:07.809
because you still have your profit shares doing
00:19:07.809 --> 00:19:09.730
what they do. And if they reinitiate the dividend,
00:19:09.809 --> 00:19:11.690
you're still going to be able to grow it. Whatever
00:19:11.690 --> 00:19:14.000
happens, happens. I don't know. Right. But because
00:19:14.000 --> 00:19:15.859
it's already had a price surge, he'd wanted to
00:19:15.859 --> 00:19:17.900
get the initial off to take the risk of the initial
00:19:17.900 --> 00:19:19.579
investment out of the picture. Because it could
00:19:19.579 --> 00:19:22.299
go down. The merger could be bad or they could
00:19:22.299 --> 00:19:23.960
pull the rug on the merger at the last minute.
00:19:24.019 --> 00:19:26.480
It's supposed to merge in 2027 and they could
00:19:26.480 --> 00:19:28.779
decide that we don't want that. Well, new news
00:19:28.779 --> 00:19:30.099
might come out. And you said, too, that it's
00:19:30.099 --> 00:19:33.099
up to the approval of the SEC or something. They
00:19:33.099 --> 00:19:35.859
reached approval with the politicians. But now
00:19:35.859 --> 00:19:37.839
it has to go through another approval process.
00:19:37.900 --> 00:19:39.900
So the merger may or may not happen. It looks
00:19:39.900 --> 00:19:42.339
like it will. But at the same time, I don't like
00:19:42.339 --> 00:19:45.240
the risk in a retirement portfolio of it could
00:19:45.240 --> 00:19:48.359
happen. I don't. I'm not. Right. It's a possibility.
00:19:48.359 --> 00:19:52.140
It's not a guarantee. So that is that for the
00:19:52.140 --> 00:19:53.660
retirement portfolio. It's doing what it's supposed
00:19:53.660 --> 00:19:56.390
to do. It's slow and steady. And we add positions
00:19:56.390 --> 00:20:00.069
like we did for five new positions with the bond
00:20:00.069 --> 00:20:03.250
in the quarter. And we liquidated some things
00:20:03.250 --> 00:20:06.289
like we'll go over next quarter. We just liquidated
00:20:06.289 --> 00:20:10.930
ABR because it is a shit show. So now we're looking
00:20:10.930 --> 00:20:13.769
at the monthly dividend spreadsheet that we will
00:20:13.769 --> 00:20:15.630
also have linked in the show notes where you
00:20:15.630 --> 00:20:17.769
can see the actual individual tickers and what
00:20:17.769 --> 00:20:20.170
they paid us specifically and the changes from
00:20:20.170 --> 00:20:23.200
quarter to quarter, month to month. Do you have
00:20:23.200 --> 00:20:26.079
any notable discussionary points? Like did something
00:20:26.079 --> 00:20:29.720
massively decrease in payout? ABR, but that's
00:20:29.720 --> 00:20:31.460
why we got out. Right, ABR, but that's why we
00:20:31.460 --> 00:20:34.119
got out. And like I said, Skyworks, if we go
00:20:34.119 --> 00:20:36.220
down to Skyworks, they cut their dividend completely,
00:20:36.359 --> 00:20:37.799
so it's not a big loss. Did you actually talk
00:20:37.799 --> 00:20:41.660
about ABR? Two days ago, I sold all the shares
00:20:41.660 --> 00:20:44.359
of ABR in this conservative portfolio because
00:20:44.359 --> 00:20:47.019
I think it's three to five years away from a
00:20:47.019 --> 00:20:48.700
turnaround and I don't have that much time to
00:20:48.700 --> 00:20:51.109
wait for a... potential maybe it turns around
00:20:51.109 --> 00:20:52.990
maybe it doesn't and this is based off what the
00:20:52.990 --> 00:20:55.410
earnings report earnings and their actual their
00:20:55.410 --> 00:20:57.890
um their earnings call when they they said what
00:20:57.890 --> 00:21:00.490
we have they have like 40 of their portfolio
00:21:00.490 --> 00:21:03.119
is like they're not paying on it. So they have
00:21:03.119 --> 00:21:04.779
a billion, like they have over a billion dollars
00:21:04.779 --> 00:21:07.599
in, in loans that aren't being paid on. That's
00:21:07.599 --> 00:21:10.000
not good. I'm assuming they cut the dividend
00:21:10.000 --> 00:21:13.079
from 30 cents or they cut it from 43 to 30 last
00:21:13.079 --> 00:21:15.059
year. And then they cut it from 30 to 17. So
00:21:15.059 --> 00:21:17.099
they have had two cuts. So I just got, I got,
00:21:17.140 --> 00:21:19.359
I sold half the position when they cut it the
00:21:19.359 --> 00:21:22.180
first time. And I just sold the other half now
00:21:22.180 --> 00:21:25.539
because I'm just done. And that's that I'm done
00:21:25.539 --> 00:21:28.529
with it. In this portfolio. Right. In the main
00:21:28.529 --> 00:21:31.309
portfolio, we still hold it because we have time.
00:21:31.430 --> 00:21:33.029
We have three to five years to wait for it to
00:21:33.029 --> 00:21:35.670
turn around. Right. The time horizon on this
00:21:35.670 --> 00:21:37.609
portfolio specifically, because my mom is 68
00:21:37.609 --> 00:21:40.630
now and we have to start liquidating or pulling
00:21:40.630 --> 00:21:43.390
or drawing or whatever they call it at 70 for
00:21:43.390 --> 00:21:47.230
her. So we don't need that headache or that incongruency
00:21:47.230 --> 00:21:50.349
in this portfolio. So Skyworks, we weren't making
00:21:50.349 --> 00:21:52.490
a lot to begin with. We made 29 in the first
00:21:52.490 --> 00:21:54.789
quarter, 36 in the second quarter, and 40 in
00:21:54.789 --> 00:21:56.589
the third quarter. So it's not a huge loss income
00:21:56.589 --> 00:21:59.789
-wise. But we still do, like I said, have 17
00:21:59.789 --> 00:22:03.369
shares. But we'd actually reallocated that to
00:22:03.369 --> 00:22:06.190
positions that are in this. We already have.
00:22:06.230 --> 00:22:07.910
I didn't actually initiate another position.
00:22:08.950 --> 00:22:11.309
Yet. yet you would you do put it in dry powder
00:22:11.309 --> 00:22:14.829
no i put it into mrp which we initiated in quarter
00:22:14.829 --> 00:22:17.109
four we've already initiated that one that was
00:22:17.109 --> 00:22:19.569
not one that we didn't talk about i added to
00:22:19.569 --> 00:22:23.309
stk i added to vsnt and i added to sny with the
00:22:23.309 --> 00:22:26.730
arbor proceeds so he took that and he spread
00:22:26.730 --> 00:22:29.630
it around to other stuff so that's that like
00:22:29.630 --> 00:22:31.250
if you scroll to the bottom you can see like
00:22:31.250 --> 00:22:33.710
we're doing okay on this one 15 like it's been
00:22:33.710 --> 00:22:38.599
about 1600 a month there thereabouts What is
00:22:38.599 --> 00:22:41.160
that from a yield? You said it's 4 % for the
00:22:41.160 --> 00:22:45.319
quarter, which puts her at what? 4 times 4 is
00:22:45.319 --> 00:22:49.140
16 % for a conservative portfolio. It's really
00:22:49.140 --> 00:22:53.700
hard to do the actual yield versus principle
00:22:53.700 --> 00:22:56.480
because the principle is always in flux. I mean,
00:22:56.500 --> 00:22:59.000
you can calculate it throughout the year. but
00:22:59.000 --> 00:23:01.059
you said what four four point whatever percent
00:23:01.059 --> 00:23:03.559
maybe 4 .1 and quarter three and i think we made
00:23:03.559 --> 00:23:06.700
two percent and the cons the concept of the the
00:23:06.700 --> 00:23:08.880
yield actually when you have a portfolio that
00:23:08.880 --> 00:23:11.279
you're constantly reinvesting into that yield
00:23:11.279 --> 00:23:14.819
goes up year over year because you're recompounding.
00:23:14.920 --> 00:23:16.599
So it's the magic of compounding. And if you
00:23:16.599 --> 00:23:19.140
look at one of those exponential charts, that's
00:23:19.140 --> 00:23:20.759
what compounding essentially does. It creates
00:23:20.759 --> 00:23:23.339
that. It's not a direct line. It's an inverse
00:23:23.339 --> 00:23:26.480
proportion in your favor, which is why interest
00:23:26.480 --> 00:23:30.019
in the opposite in debt hurts so hard. But you'll
00:23:30.019 --> 00:23:34.380
see that she has made about $13 ,100 and three
00:23:34.380 --> 00:23:36.440
quarters in dividends, which is pretty good.
00:23:36.500 --> 00:23:41.119
$13 ,800 minus $730. And you'll see that the
00:23:41.119 --> 00:23:44.539
first quarter was 43, the second quarter 43 .14,
00:23:44.680 --> 00:23:46.799
the second quarter was 43 .79, and the third
00:23:46.799 --> 00:23:49.380
quarter was 44 .13. So it's gradually just going
00:23:49.380 --> 00:23:51.220
up. Ticking up. So we want to see, that's what
00:23:51.220 --> 00:23:52.920
I said with that compounding exponential growth
00:23:52.920 --> 00:23:54.960
thing. So if you plotted this, I should plot
00:23:54.960 --> 00:23:57.839
these at some point on an actual plot graph and
00:23:57.839 --> 00:24:00.339
show the increase, whereas ours is like up, down,
00:24:00.380 --> 00:24:02.559
up, down. But if you did it yearly, you'd probably
00:24:02.559 --> 00:24:05.660
get a lot better of a curve. Yeah. So that's
00:24:05.660 --> 00:24:07.900
the conservative retirement portfolio. It's doing
00:24:07.900 --> 00:24:09.759
exactly what it's supposed to do. It actually,
00:24:09.819 --> 00:24:12.880
I was looking at the numbers. This one is up
00:24:12.880 --> 00:24:17.740
about 13 % year to date. And we're in the beginning
00:24:17.740 --> 00:24:20.140
of September. The NASDAQ is up 12%. Wait, the
00:24:20.140 --> 00:24:24.940
NASDAQ is up 12%. The S &P is up 10%. And the
00:24:24.940 --> 00:24:28.000
Dow is up about 13%. So this one's just in like
00:24:28.000 --> 00:24:30.119
it's moving in line with the other three big
00:24:30.119 --> 00:24:33.259
indexes, indices, however you want to say it.
00:24:33.579 --> 00:24:35.519
So this one's doing what it's supposed to do.
00:24:35.579 --> 00:24:37.180
It's just like it's - And that's a really good
00:24:37.180 --> 00:24:39.319
yield for a conservative because like a total
00:24:39.319 --> 00:24:41.660
market index would also include risky assets.
00:24:41.720 --> 00:24:43.599
This does not really include the risky assets.
00:24:43.640 --> 00:24:45.019
So the fact that this is keeping comparative
00:24:45.019 --> 00:24:48.259
with the total market indexes and this is more
00:24:48.259 --> 00:24:50.640
conservative is freaking awesome because this
00:24:50.640 --> 00:24:52.779
will have less of a principal hit if the markets
00:24:52.779 --> 00:24:54.680
do hit a recession or decline or whatever we
00:24:54.680 --> 00:24:57.079
said might happen, depending on where the economic
00:24:57.079 --> 00:25:00.180
stuff goes. We're going to switch over now to
00:25:00.180 --> 00:25:03.759
our main portfolio, which is the - It's a nice
00:25:03.759 --> 00:25:06.920
hybrid between risk and return. So it's like
00:25:06.920 --> 00:25:07.420
the middle ground.
00:00:09.099 --> 00:00:12.359
Welcome to Roaming Returns, a podcast about generating
00:00:12.359 --> 00:00:15.220
a passive income with dividend stocks so you
00:00:15.220 --> 00:00:17.780
can secure your finances and liberate your life.
00:00:18.160 --> 00:00:21.039
This is our Q3 update for the conservative retirement
00:00:21.039 --> 00:00:24.320
portfolio, the boring on purpose account that's
00:00:24.320 --> 00:00:27.140
supposed to be steady, resilient, and not constantly
00:00:27.140 --> 00:00:30.059
lighting things on fire. And honestly, it did
00:00:30.059 --> 00:00:33.079
its job. Dividends ticked up slightly, the account
00:00:33.079 --> 00:00:35.420
value moved higher, and we made a few changes
00:00:35.420 --> 00:00:37.840
to clean up risk without turning this into some
00:00:37.840 --> 00:00:40.420
high -yield circus. This episode is really about
00:00:40.420 --> 00:00:42.759
what slow and steady looks like in real numbers,
00:00:42.960 --> 00:00:45.340
and why the right move in a low -risk portfolio
00:00:45.340 --> 00:00:47.979
is not always the same move we'd make in one
00:00:47.979 --> 00:00:51.939
with a longer time horizon. We're back. We have
00:00:51.939 --> 00:00:56.840
the quarter three dividend report for the conservative
00:00:56.840 --> 00:01:00.240
portfolio today. It did what it's supposed to.
00:01:00.259 --> 00:01:01.820
So that's about all we have to say about it.
00:01:01.880 --> 00:01:03.600
We'll go over the numbers here quickly, but it
00:01:03.600 --> 00:01:06.260
did exactly what I wanted to. There were some
00:01:06.260 --> 00:01:08.159
changes, but we'll get into that. So this is
00:01:08.159 --> 00:01:10.939
the quarter three. Conservative. Conservative
00:01:10.939 --> 00:01:12.560
report. And then we're going to compare it to
00:01:12.560 --> 00:01:14.359
the quarter two conservative report to get an
00:01:14.359 --> 00:01:17.159
idea. And if you're not interested in the conservative,
00:01:17.359 --> 00:01:19.200
we have another episode coming up with our main
00:01:19.200 --> 00:01:21.099
one, which is kind of like a hybrid middle between
00:01:21.099 --> 00:01:24.159
risk slash high yield. And then we're going to
00:01:24.159 --> 00:01:26.239
do another one for the high yield, high ETF.
00:01:27.079 --> 00:01:28.900
So pick your poison. Right. Pick your poison.
00:01:28.920 --> 00:01:30.379
We're separating them so those of you who are
00:01:30.379 --> 00:01:32.700
not interested don't have to watch the other
00:01:32.700 --> 00:01:35.099
ones. And as always, we will have a link in the
00:01:35.099 --> 00:01:38.879
show notes for the spreadsheet if you do not
00:01:38.879 --> 00:01:42.840
have access to the YouTube video. Okay. In the
00:01:42.840 --> 00:01:45.599
conservative... portfolio in quarter three, which
00:01:45.599 --> 00:01:47.980
was June 1st through August 31st. We actually
00:01:47.980 --> 00:01:51.859
only had one sale and that was we sold YMAX on
00:01:51.859 --> 00:01:55.379
August 6th. The reason for that was the payouts
00:01:55.379 --> 00:01:57.340
distributions were getting smaller and smaller
00:01:57.340 --> 00:02:00.280
and smaller. And NAV declined? The NAV was declined,
00:02:00.459 --> 00:02:01.980
but it was kind of - But it was more the payments?
00:02:02.159 --> 00:02:04.140
It was the payments. The NAV kind of solidified
00:02:04.140 --> 00:02:06.180
between seven and eight dollars, but the payments
00:02:06.180 --> 00:02:08.439
were down to like five and six cents. Is that
00:02:08.439 --> 00:02:10.159
one of the ones that you sold right before the
00:02:10.159 --> 00:02:11.699
last one came out and it was like really, really,
00:02:11.740 --> 00:02:14.539
really bad? Yes. Okay. So he made a good decision.
00:02:14.659 --> 00:02:18.039
But we made out with a pretty good profit in
00:02:18.039 --> 00:02:20.180
YMAX, actually. We made out with, I think it
00:02:20.180 --> 00:02:24.180
was 70 % total return on it. So, like, it's just,
00:02:24.219 --> 00:02:28.300
if you're disciplined with the YieldMax and the
00:02:28.300 --> 00:02:31.500
Roundhill ETFs, the offerings, you can actually
00:02:31.500 --> 00:02:33.460
make money on them, but you have to be disciplined.
00:02:33.860 --> 00:02:37.080
And you have to have the right strategy. Reinvesting
00:02:37.080 --> 00:02:40.479
is not advisable most of the time. Most of the
00:02:40.479 --> 00:02:43.659
time, but, like, at the same time, like, So selling
00:02:43.659 --> 00:02:46.500
for a loss isn't the end of the world if it prohibits
00:02:46.500 --> 00:02:49.740
a huger loss down the road. Right. If it prohibits
00:02:49.740 --> 00:02:51.479
more loss and you can actually take that money
00:02:51.479 --> 00:02:53.219
and put it somewhere else, that'll generate more
00:02:53.219 --> 00:02:57.240
capital or a safer actual investment. So just
00:02:57.240 --> 00:02:59.340
sometimes it's better to lock in a loss to move
00:02:59.340 --> 00:03:01.439
it because you can also write that off tax -wise
00:03:01.439 --> 00:03:05.539
or offset that with gains. And for additions
00:03:05.539 --> 00:03:08.319
in the conservative portfolio for the third quarter,
00:03:08.360 --> 00:03:13.210
we actually had five. We added SNY, Sanofi. the
00:03:13.210 --> 00:03:16.169
pharmaceutical company on July 2nd. We've added
00:03:16.169 --> 00:03:20.270
an Intel 50 -year bond on July 2nd as well. The
00:03:20.270 --> 00:03:26.189
CUISP number is 458 -140 -BK5. I don't have that
00:03:26.189 --> 00:03:28.150
anywhere in the sheets, but they actually do
00:03:28.150 --> 00:03:30.210
have an Intel bond that's 50 years that you collect
00:03:30.210 --> 00:03:32.389
like 4 .5 % on. So that's a good place to park
00:03:32.389 --> 00:03:34.650
money while you're waiting. You actually bought
00:03:34.650 --> 00:03:36.710
a 50 -year bond? Yeah. That's awesome. I got
00:03:36.710 --> 00:03:41.560
it for like $53. So it's like 47 % off. Undervalued.
00:03:41.560 --> 00:03:43.159
So if they call it back, he wins Juicy. If they
00:03:43.159 --> 00:03:45.460
call it back, I win Juicy. Or in the meantime,
00:03:45.699 --> 00:03:48.280
while I'm waiting to maybe put that money to
00:03:48.280 --> 00:03:50.680
you somewhere else, it should, in theory, go
00:03:50.680 --> 00:03:54.159
closer to the NAV or the par value at some point.
00:03:54.240 --> 00:03:55.979
Right. And he's not locked into that for 50 years.
00:03:56.039 --> 00:03:57.419
That's just a place to store capital, especially
00:03:57.419 --> 00:03:59.460
if you buy it that undervalued. You can get out
00:03:59.460 --> 00:04:01.599
with some of those costs that happen with bonds.
00:04:03.280 --> 00:04:05.240
We've done this numerous times in the conservative
00:04:05.240 --> 00:04:07.520
portfolio where we purchased bonds that are undervalued,
00:04:07.520 --> 00:04:11.479
like 30%, 40 % undervalued, and we actually sold
00:04:11.479 --> 00:04:14.219
them back and made 20%, 30%. So it's nothing
00:04:14.219 --> 00:04:15.580
new if you've been following the conservative
00:04:15.580 --> 00:04:18.839
portfolio. This is just newer because it's 50
00:04:18.839 --> 00:04:21.779
years as opposed to like five. Yeah, that's crazy.
00:04:22.040 --> 00:04:25.180
We also added RNTY, which is the yield max real
00:04:25.180 --> 00:04:29.360
estate, 12 % ETF. We added that on July 21st.
00:04:30.060 --> 00:04:33.560
We added VSNT, which is a communications kind
00:04:33.560 --> 00:04:36.519
of like Comcast, a communications stock. We added
00:04:36.519 --> 00:04:40.600
that on 7 -30 -2026. And we added the closed
00:04:40.600 --> 00:04:43.959
-ended fund STK on August 6th. And I talked about
00:04:43.959 --> 00:04:46.500
that a lot in the weekly updates. That closed
00:04:46.500 --> 00:04:48.379
-ended fund is really good. It's about 9 % to
00:04:48.379 --> 00:04:52.000
10 % undervalued. It's a technology growth. closing
00:04:52.000 --> 00:04:54.500
the fund, that pays about 3 % to 4 % dividend.
00:04:54.620 --> 00:04:56.199
So you're getting the growth component, plus
00:04:56.199 --> 00:04:58.240
you're getting the dividend recompounding, plus
00:04:58.240 --> 00:04:59.600
you're getting the price appreciation because
00:04:59.600 --> 00:05:01.759
it's so undervalued. So those are the five additions
00:05:01.759 --> 00:05:04.019
to the conservative portfolio. I like all of
00:05:04.019 --> 00:05:06.579
them. I like the valuation on all of them. I
00:05:06.579 --> 00:05:11.240
think they will be held for years. RNTY maybe
00:05:11.240 --> 00:05:12.480
or maybe not, depending on what happened with
00:05:12.480 --> 00:05:14.060
real estate, but the four of the five are really
00:05:14.060 --> 00:05:19.829
good. So data. In quarter two, we made $4 ,378
00:05:19.829 --> 00:05:23.709
.69 in dividends in this conservative portfolio.
00:05:23.949 --> 00:05:28.470
In quarter three, we made $4 ,413 .45. So that's
00:05:28.470 --> 00:05:31.810
about $40 more in dividends. So it went up a
00:05:31.810 --> 00:05:34.180
little bit. That's what you want, like slow and
00:05:34.180 --> 00:05:36.540
steady in the retirement portfolio. Your principal's
00:05:36.540 --> 00:05:39.319
staying intact and you actually are accruing
00:05:39.319 --> 00:05:41.319
more dividends via the drip. And I was really
00:05:41.319 --> 00:05:43.300
happy to see that for at least one of these portfolios
00:05:43.300 --> 00:05:45.120
because we did not have that same increase in
00:05:45.120 --> 00:05:46.439
the other ones. And we'll explain why when we
00:05:46.439 --> 00:05:48.779
get to the other portfolios. So then we broke
00:05:48.779 --> 00:05:51.000
it down the month versus month. March would be
00:05:51.000 --> 00:05:54.519
the first month of quarter two. We had $1 ,633
00:05:54.519 --> 00:05:58.490
.71. Versus June, which is the first month of
00:05:58.490 --> 00:06:02.790
quarter three, we had $1 ,672 .73. So that went
00:06:02.790 --> 00:06:06.050
up pretty good. April, the second month, we had
00:06:06.050 --> 00:06:11.490
$1 ,335 .70 versus July, where we had $1 ,272
00:06:11.490 --> 00:06:15.930
.30. So that went down some. And then May, we
00:06:15.930 --> 00:06:21.709
had $1 ,409 .28 versus August of $1 ,468 .42.
00:06:22.490 --> 00:06:26.160
So the difference can be explained. Pretty easily
00:06:26.160 --> 00:06:29.180
for what happened here. In April, you notice
00:06:29.180 --> 00:06:34.199
the April we had about... $60 -ish more than
00:06:34.199 --> 00:06:37.220
we did in July. In April, we had the Milan bond
00:06:37.220 --> 00:06:40.019
that paid us $52, and we had Stillwater, which
00:06:40.019 --> 00:06:41.660
paid their irregular dividend. They only pay
00:06:41.660 --> 00:06:43.240
a dividend out every six months, and it was at
00:06:43.240 --> 00:06:46.959
$54. So that's $106 difference. So that April
00:06:46.959 --> 00:06:49.720
total should have been $106 less, which would
00:06:49.720 --> 00:06:52.480
have then been less than the July total. So I'm
00:06:52.480 --> 00:06:54.939
not worried about the numbers in this case. No,
00:06:54.959 --> 00:06:56.720
I didn't realize we actually had semi -annual
00:06:56.720 --> 00:07:00.379
payers. Yeah. Interesting. So we have the drip
00:07:00.379 --> 00:07:04.379
off on RNTY. We're recouping the initial investment
00:07:04.379 --> 00:07:08.139
value. We have $1 ,476 to recoup in RNTY. That
00:07:08.139 --> 00:07:10.120
is a new holding, remember. We have the drip
00:07:10.120 --> 00:07:14.060
off on BSM. We have $1 ,954 to recoup in that
00:07:14.060 --> 00:07:17.300
one. We have the drip off on LFGY. We have about
00:07:17.300 --> 00:07:21.480
$1 ,280 left to recoup in LFGY. We have the drip
00:07:21.480 --> 00:07:25.040
off on Trinity Capital, $1 ,831 to recoup, and
00:07:25.040 --> 00:07:26.759
that one's recouping pretty quickly. I mean,
00:07:26.779 --> 00:07:29.959
I could... So BSM, Trinity, Hercules Capital,
00:07:30.120 --> 00:07:33.060
XYLD, I could recoup, and AIPR. Actually, a lot
00:07:33.060 --> 00:07:36.240
of these I could recoup the initial right now
00:07:36.240 --> 00:07:37.779
if I wanted to because we're up a lot in them.
00:07:37.860 --> 00:07:39.980
But I'm not. I'm letting the dividends actually
00:07:39.980 --> 00:07:44.100
recoup it slower just to see. We also have the
00:07:44.100 --> 00:07:47.139
drip off on Hercules Capital, HTGC. We owe about
00:07:47.139 --> 00:07:51.480
$3 ,861 on that one yet. And we have the drip
00:07:51.480 --> 00:07:55.360
off on XYLD, which is the S &P 500 covered call.
00:07:56.240 --> 00:07:59.699
You got a lot left on that one. We owe $5 ,740
00:07:59.699 --> 00:08:02.439
on that one yet. And we have the drip off on
00:08:02.439 --> 00:08:06.540
AIPI. We owe $2 ,620 on that one. Now that sounds
00:08:06.540 --> 00:08:09.279
bad, but Trinity is worth about $6 ,000. So I
00:08:09.279 --> 00:08:11.459
literally could liquidate $1 ,800 and have Trinity
00:08:11.459 --> 00:08:14.319
paid off. Hercules is about $8 ,000. So I could
00:08:14.319 --> 00:08:17.540
liquidate $3 ,800 and have about $4 ,200 left
00:08:17.540 --> 00:08:20.480
in Hercules. And XYLD is about $12 ,000 right
00:08:20.480 --> 00:08:22.620
now. So I'd have like $7 ,000 left over. So while
00:08:22.620 --> 00:08:25.839
I'm saying I could recoup the initial... tomorrow
00:08:25.839 --> 00:08:28.920
if i wanted to i'm actually not i'm kind of doing
00:08:28.920 --> 00:08:31.699
it slow and steady to see what happens but we'll
00:08:31.699 --> 00:08:34.639
see um we have the drip off collecting cash already
00:08:34.639 --> 00:08:37.940
recouped on sbsw stillwater and nvdy we have
00:08:37.940 --> 00:08:39.480
actually already recouped the initial so we're
00:08:39.480 --> 00:08:41.480
just using that cash to put it in other things
00:08:41.480 --> 00:08:43.399
and we have the drip off where we have to do
00:08:43.399 --> 00:08:46.519
a manual reinvestment on thta because vanguard's
00:08:46.519 --> 00:08:48.870
trash It won't let me turn the drip on in that
00:08:48.870 --> 00:08:51.169
one. I absolutely am going to move out of Vanguard
00:08:51.169 --> 00:08:53.129
when I go home to see my parents this year to
00:08:53.129 --> 00:08:55.409
get my mom to sign the papers to see. And we'll
00:08:55.409 --> 00:08:57.070
document that process of transferring because
00:08:57.070 --> 00:08:59.049
if you hate your brokerage and you're going through
00:08:59.049 --> 00:09:01.470
the same situation, it is very cumbersome to
00:09:01.470 --> 00:09:03.610
change something. And it's gotten to the point
00:09:03.610 --> 00:09:05.350
where he complained so bad that I'm tired of
00:09:05.350 --> 00:09:06.870
hearing about him. So I'm going to actually make
00:09:06.870 --> 00:09:09.470
that effort to get it moved into Schwab. Vanguard's
00:09:09.470 --> 00:09:11.830
horrible. And they just updated the software,
00:09:12.149 --> 00:09:14.570
updated the site. And it's worse. And it's worse
00:09:14.570 --> 00:09:17.429
than it was before. It's like God. Government
00:09:17.429 --> 00:09:20.269
DMV stuff. I understand that there's a time and
00:09:20.269 --> 00:09:21.990
place for it because if you invest in Vanguard
00:09:21.990 --> 00:09:24.389
funds, you're getting it for the 0 % like fees
00:09:24.389 --> 00:09:25.929
and everything. That's fine. But if you're actually
00:09:25.929 --> 00:09:28.210
doing stuff outside of Vanguard funds, it is
00:09:28.210 --> 00:09:30.409
very tedious and cumbersome and it's annoying
00:09:30.409 --> 00:09:32.129
as shit. And like I said before, some people
00:09:32.129 --> 00:09:33.629
don't have a preference with Vanguard because
00:09:33.629 --> 00:09:36.779
it might actually be who their employers. 401k
00:09:36.779 --> 00:09:38.620
or whatever is through. So if you're stuck with
00:09:38.620 --> 00:09:40.279
it, it is what it is. And if you're in the funds,
00:09:40.299 --> 00:09:42.080
they do have benefits with the lower funds that
00:09:42.080 --> 00:09:44.500
are Vanguard funds or lower fees for Vanguard
00:09:44.500 --> 00:09:46.820
funds. But if you have an option and you hate
00:09:46.820 --> 00:09:49.250
it. like we do, we're going to make the effort
00:09:49.250 --> 00:09:52.169
to change because it's just annoying. So in the
00:09:52.169 --> 00:09:55.269
retirement conservative portfolio, we have a
00:09:55.269 --> 00:09:57.289
few that are overvalued that I would not touch
00:09:57.289 --> 00:10:01.450
right now. JEPQ is one. XYLD is one. NBXG is
00:10:01.450 --> 00:10:08.590
another one. UAN, Pepsi, PEP, TRMD, ADM, SWKS,
00:10:08.590 --> 00:10:12.909
and TGT are all overvalued. Don't invest in those.
00:10:13.419 --> 00:10:15.659
But the best undervalued holdings in this one
00:10:15.659 --> 00:10:19.440
are SNY, which we just picked up, DX, which is
00:10:19.440 --> 00:10:23.639
a Emory UPS, which everyone knows, STWD, which
00:10:23.639 --> 00:10:28.460
is a real estate trust, REIT, Ozark, OZK, which
00:10:28.460 --> 00:10:31.179
is a regional bank, ARCC, which is like the best,
00:10:31.299 --> 00:10:34.759
biggest BDC, HTGC, which is like the biggest
00:10:34.759 --> 00:10:37.840
like life sciences and venture capitalists, BDC,
00:10:37.960 --> 00:10:40.059
and STK, which we've already mentioned. Those
00:10:40.059 --> 00:10:43.179
are all very... undervalued. And as he just said,
00:10:43.179 --> 00:10:45.200
the overvalued holdings not buying in right now,
00:10:45.240 --> 00:10:47.039
but if you're already in them and you have the
00:10:47.039 --> 00:10:48.799
ability to turn the drip off and you're willing
00:10:48.799 --> 00:10:50.820
to maintenance a little bit more to move that
00:10:50.820 --> 00:10:53.740
capital into something undervalued manually,
00:10:54.120 --> 00:10:57.159
you can turn drip off in those as well to get
00:10:57.159 --> 00:10:59.940
a faster compounding in something else. Or you
00:10:59.940 --> 00:11:02.039
could leave it dripped on. That's totally your
00:11:02.039 --> 00:11:03.919
call, but you can actually compound your capital
00:11:03.919 --> 00:11:06.139
faster if you go from something overvalued to
00:11:06.139 --> 00:11:09.340
undervalued. Yeah, that's... We've talked about
00:11:09.340 --> 00:11:12.580
that previously. Once you notice things, valuation,
00:11:12.759 --> 00:11:14.980
you can play with the drip and compound faster.
00:11:15.179 --> 00:11:17.100
Right. The starting balance in the conservative
00:11:17.100 --> 00:11:21.139
portfolio on June 1st was $212 ,980. And the
00:11:21.139 --> 00:11:25.340
ending balance on August 31st was $221 ,777.
00:11:25.340 --> 00:11:29.299
So we made 4 .13 % in the third quarter in this
00:11:29.299 --> 00:11:32.500
portfolio, about almost $9 ,000 in capital gains.
00:11:33.019 --> 00:11:37.299
That's capital gains. That's not total cost basis?
00:11:37.740 --> 00:11:41.279
No, I didn't just separate that. Okay. So that's
00:11:41.279 --> 00:11:43.759
that. We actually have the buy up to sheet for
00:11:43.759 --> 00:11:47.240
this. Go over real quick. The retirement portfolio
00:11:47.240 --> 00:11:50.259
is the left one. You'll see like the ones I've
00:11:50.259 --> 00:11:54.120
mentioned, JAPQ is vastly overvalued. XYLD is
00:11:54.120 --> 00:11:56.820
almost. So if you're in the sheet, when you go
00:11:56.820 --> 00:11:59.159
into the sheets, the ones that are overvalued
00:11:59.159 --> 00:12:01.820
are red. And the ones that are undervalued are
00:12:01.820 --> 00:12:03.559
green. The ones that are white are kind of fair
00:12:03.559 --> 00:12:06.259
market, I assume. Fair market or buy at your
00:12:06.259 --> 00:12:07.919
own risk. Do more research. And then the ones
00:12:07.919 --> 00:12:09.860
that are actually the ticker colored blue are
00:12:09.860 --> 00:12:12.539
the ones that we have the drip off. So up to
00:12:12.539 --> 00:12:14.240
you if you want to follow suit or not, but we're
00:12:14.240 --> 00:12:15.759
just sharing that information for transparency.
00:12:17.059 --> 00:12:20.539
Yeah. So like you see JPQ is really overvalued.
00:12:20.820 --> 00:12:23.379
You'll see MBXG is really overvalued. You'll
00:12:23.379 --> 00:12:25.600
see UAN is really overvalued. So like the ones
00:12:25.600 --> 00:12:28.340
in red are really, really overvalued. The ones
00:12:28.340 --> 00:12:31.940
in white are about. Fair. They're about close.
00:12:32.059 --> 00:12:35.080
Like you see Starbuck, SBW, SBLK right down there.
00:12:35.120 --> 00:12:38.600
It was at 31 .17 and buy up to 30. So that one
00:12:38.600 --> 00:12:41.899
could be a red, but it like that one. So current
00:12:41.899 --> 00:12:44.179
event dictated that that 30 could actually go
00:12:44.179 --> 00:12:46.539
up to 35 like in next week. Now that buy up to
00:12:46.539 --> 00:12:48.980
price, is that the expert opinion? Because I
00:12:48.980 --> 00:12:50.720
knew you were doing that before. Or is that your
00:12:50.720 --> 00:12:54.480
new equation? It's my best case guess for people
00:12:54.480 --> 00:12:57.279
to make money. So when he says that, what he
00:12:57.279 --> 00:13:00.600
means is a stock has a specific dividend yield
00:13:00.600 --> 00:13:03.100
and a buy up to that buy up to gives you a little
00:13:03.100 --> 00:13:05.460
bit of safety margin so that if it actually has
00:13:05.460 --> 00:13:07.700
a reduction in price, you're not completely like
00:13:07.700 --> 00:13:10.899
negating the dividend payouts. So that gives
00:13:10.899 --> 00:13:17.169
you a cushion. I'm combining like a. decent entry
00:13:17.169 --> 00:13:19.750
price with the dividend cushion what i call the
00:13:19.750 --> 00:13:22.690
dividend cushion like you'll see aipi for example
00:13:22.690 --> 00:13:26.090
first when it yields 35 so you have a big cushion
00:13:26.090 --> 00:13:28.769
that you can get in at but if you buy up to 37
00:13:28.769 --> 00:13:31.769
.50 i think you'll still like you should still
00:13:31.769 --> 00:13:34.899
make a pretty good amount of that 34 If you bought
00:13:34.899 --> 00:13:37.740
up to $37 .50, if you bought at like $42, that
00:13:37.740 --> 00:13:40.159
would reduce your dividend cushion by a lot because
00:13:40.159 --> 00:13:42.019
you're overpaying a lot for something. Which
00:13:42.019 --> 00:13:43.659
means it could have a pullback and actually,
00:13:43.720 --> 00:13:46.179
again, negate that dividend payout. So we're
00:13:46.179 --> 00:13:48.539
trying to help you keep your portfolio in the
00:13:48.539 --> 00:13:50.950
green. as opposed to having those red pullbacks
00:13:50.950 --> 00:13:52.669
if you're somebody who's more susceptible to
00:13:52.669 --> 00:13:55.009
having that negative emotion when you see those
00:13:55.009 --> 00:13:57.269
negative values in your account. Not that those
00:13:57.269 --> 00:13:59.049
are necessarily a bad thing because everything's
00:13:59.049 --> 00:14:01.590
in flux, but from an emotional sentiment and
00:14:01.590 --> 00:14:03.830
an undervalue standpoint, he builds this into
00:14:03.830 --> 00:14:06.570
the buy up to price. And the only ones that really
00:14:06.570 --> 00:14:09.909
increased from quarter two, and we did this to
00:14:09.909 --> 00:14:12.549
quarter three, Hercules went from 18 to 19 because
00:14:12.549 --> 00:14:16.570
of finances and their earnings report. I think
00:14:16.570 --> 00:14:20.070
Triple M went from 155 up to 180. That one really,
00:14:20.129 --> 00:14:21.990
that one had a really good earnings and a really
00:14:21.990 --> 00:14:24.929
good projection moving forward. So that one went
00:14:24.929 --> 00:14:27.269
from like 155 up to 180. So that one actually
00:14:27.269 --> 00:14:29.590
technically is a buy, but like it's really expensive
00:14:29.590 --> 00:14:32.149
for less than 2 % yield. So that doesn't make
00:14:32.149 --> 00:14:37.389
a lot of sense. SM went from 3250 up to 40, but
00:14:37.389 --> 00:14:40.350
that's mainly because the cost of oil went up
00:14:40.350 --> 00:14:45.220
so much. Civvy SM. BKH went from 72 up to 75.
00:14:45.700 --> 00:14:48.039
They had a pretty good earnings and it's a utility.
00:14:48.080 --> 00:14:50.139
And I think that one has more room to run. But
00:14:50.139 --> 00:14:52.080
again, it's pretty close to fair value. Might
00:14:52.080 --> 00:14:55.259
want to wait for a pullback. 75, 71 is not that
00:14:55.259 --> 00:15:00.139
great of a spread. NAD and NZF, both actually,
00:15:00.240 --> 00:15:03.559
they're the two tax advantage ones you can use.
00:15:03.600 --> 00:15:06.019
Like if you have a taxable account, you don't
00:15:06.019 --> 00:15:08.179
have to pay like federal tax on those. Those
00:15:08.179 --> 00:15:10.460
are actually... doing really well. So I like
00:15:10.460 --> 00:15:13.139
those. And those actually went from $11 .50 up
00:15:13.139 --> 00:15:15.799
to $12 and from $12 up to $12 .50. So there's
00:15:15.799 --> 00:15:18.779
a pretty good chance of like 10%, 12 % return
00:15:18.779 --> 00:15:21.320
on those two if you want a tax -advantaged bond
00:15:21.320 --> 00:15:23.399
fund. And that is a moot point if you're actually
00:15:23.399 --> 00:15:26.139
already in a retirement account. And if you bought
00:15:26.139 --> 00:15:27.919
ADM and we mentioned it in the retirement account,
00:15:28.019 --> 00:15:31.399
you're welcome because that one went from $50
00:15:31.399 --> 00:15:34.039
up to $86 plus you've accrued a lot of dividends.
00:15:34.100 --> 00:15:36.139
That one's a really good one, but it's super
00:15:36.139 --> 00:15:39.379
overvalued. And like my valuation metrics is
00:15:39.379 --> 00:15:42.399
not like I don't look at like the... The experts
00:15:42.399 --> 00:15:44.259
opinion on that, I actually have a formula where
00:15:44.259 --> 00:15:47.500
I plug in the projected growth by the experts.
00:15:47.639 --> 00:15:49.919
Then I have my own growth, which is derived from
00:15:49.919 --> 00:15:52.299
the return on equity, return on the payout ratio,
00:15:52.399 --> 00:15:55.879
return on EPS projections. And then I combine
00:15:55.879 --> 00:15:58.519
it all together. So that's 75 is actually the
00:15:58.519 --> 00:16:00.960
experts high opinion, which is they say like
00:16:00.960 --> 00:16:03.500
92 and my low opinion, which I think it's about
00:16:03.500 --> 00:16:06.440
68. So we come up with a 75. That's how we come
00:16:06.440 --> 00:16:09.240
up with that buy up to point. So it's not all
00:16:09.240 --> 00:16:11.399
just my formula. I actually incorporate the experts
00:16:11.399 --> 00:16:13.519
into it, but that's - In case they're missing
00:16:13.519 --> 00:16:15.399
something you're not. Yeah, or I'm - Or you are.
00:16:15.759 --> 00:16:17.299
Yeah, I'm missing something they're not or they're
00:16:17.299 --> 00:16:18.919
missing something I'm not. I said that backwards.
00:16:19.460 --> 00:16:21.759
So that one's just really overvalued. Like stay
00:16:21.759 --> 00:16:24.220
away from that one. That's the corn one. I understand.
00:16:24.259 --> 00:16:25.980
So if you have this position and you did get
00:16:25.980 --> 00:16:27.700
in when we got in, what are you doing with this?
00:16:27.740 --> 00:16:29.299
You just turn the drip off? Oh, I just have the
00:16:29.299 --> 00:16:31.639
drip on. I don't care. Okay. Because it could
00:16:31.639 --> 00:16:33.320
go up to a hundred and some dollars. It's a corn
00:16:33.320 --> 00:16:35.710
stock. I was just wondering what the default
00:16:35.710 --> 00:16:37.230
process is. But I wouldn't get into it for anything
00:16:37.230 --> 00:16:40.769
above $75. Okay. So a new purchase, new entry
00:16:40.769 --> 00:16:43.330
would not be advisable because we don't know
00:16:43.330 --> 00:16:45.909
and it could actually pull back. If you got into
00:16:45.909 --> 00:16:47.549
T -Row, when we mentioned T -Row, you're welcome.
00:16:47.629 --> 00:16:50.500
That one's up like 40%. If you got into Target,
00:16:50.600 --> 00:16:52.120
when we mentioned Target, you're welcome because
00:16:52.120 --> 00:16:54.440
that one's up like 100 % since we got into it.
00:16:54.559 --> 00:16:56.960
Are you serious? Yeah. Target's like 80 -some
00:16:56.960 --> 00:16:58.879
percent. That's even with the pullback. It was
00:16:58.879 --> 00:17:03.679
like $170 or $160 -some a couple weeks ago. I
00:17:03.679 --> 00:17:05.279
think that one was depressed because of that.
00:17:06.700 --> 00:17:09.140
The DEI stuff that happened and they had like
00:17:09.140 --> 00:17:10.880
a problem with sales. So that had like a sentiment
00:17:10.880 --> 00:17:12.420
issue. You'll see the bottom four there are the
00:17:12.420 --> 00:17:16.420
new ones, SNY, RNTY, VSNT, and STK. They're all.
00:17:17.319 --> 00:17:21.039
primed for buying i think um for example like
00:17:21.039 --> 00:17:23.700
sny i have a buy it to a 50 but that one should
00:17:23.700 --> 00:17:26.000
be like worth about a hundred dollars so like
00:17:26.000 --> 00:17:27.900
if you get in before 50 you're probably going
00:17:27.900 --> 00:17:29.359
to double your money in that one over the next
00:17:29.359 --> 00:17:34.140
few years rnty is 50 because that normally doesn't
00:17:34.140 --> 00:17:35.880
have a lot of NAV erosion. It normally trades
00:17:35.880 --> 00:17:39.759
around 50. VSNT, that one should be about $80.
00:17:39.980 --> 00:17:42.059
So if you get into that one under 42, you're
00:17:42.059 --> 00:17:43.799
going to make more than 100 % on that one. And
00:17:43.799 --> 00:17:47.299
STK should be about 55 based on their historical
00:17:47.299 --> 00:17:49.759
discount and premium to NAV. So if you get into
00:17:49.759 --> 00:17:52.000
that one before 55, you're going to be really
00:17:52.000 --> 00:17:53.559
good. That one holds like all the tech growth
00:17:53.559 --> 00:17:55.319
stocks. So that's a really good one to get into
00:17:55.319 --> 00:17:59.039
if you're worried about growth and income, because
00:17:59.039 --> 00:18:01.089
you're going to get both. That's why we got into
00:18:01.089 --> 00:18:02.490
that one in the retirement account. Those are
00:18:02.490 --> 00:18:04.029
really nice. And I do want to mention too with
00:18:04.029 --> 00:18:06.809
Target. Target is a really good example of a
00:18:06.809 --> 00:18:09.430
really bad negative news sentiment. And I think
00:18:09.430 --> 00:18:11.269
back when we talked about it initially, we said
00:18:11.269 --> 00:18:14.029
that this will turn around. This will pass. This
00:18:14.029 --> 00:18:16.210
will whatever. So you buy stuff that has that
00:18:16.210 --> 00:18:18.470
sentiment contrarian thing that happens and then
00:18:18.470 --> 00:18:20.829
look where it went back up to. Like it followed
00:18:20.829 --> 00:18:22.470
exactly. And then the only one, the last one
00:18:22.470 --> 00:18:25.430
I'll talk about is SWKS. We just talked about
00:18:25.430 --> 00:18:31.059
this in the weekly podcast. both accounts in
00:18:31.059 --> 00:18:33.680
swks because i don't know what it's going to
00:18:33.680 --> 00:18:36.720
do i have a buy up to 75 but because it's merging
00:18:36.720 --> 00:18:39.900
with quervo it could be 130 it would be like
00:18:39.900 --> 00:18:41.980
it's its share price but because i don't know
00:18:41.980 --> 00:18:43.700
what it's doing and they cut their dividend i
00:18:43.700 --> 00:18:45.680
just took my initial out and i'm just letting
00:18:45.680 --> 00:18:47.559
whatever i have left which is in the retirement
00:18:47.559 --> 00:18:50.319
account it's about 17 shares it can do whatever
00:18:50.319 --> 00:18:52.279
it wants i don't have to put any effort and thought
00:18:52.279 --> 00:18:55.750
into it so that's why So Skyworks, I have 17
00:18:55.750 --> 00:18:57.750
in the retirement account and I have like 17
00:18:57.750 --> 00:18:59.049
shares that are going to do whatever they do.
00:18:59.130 --> 00:19:02.329
If the Cuervo merger happens and it's a success,
00:19:02.549 --> 00:19:04.430
you're going to get the capital appreciation
00:19:04.430 --> 00:19:07.809
because you still have your profit shares doing
00:19:07.809 --> 00:19:09.730
what they do. And if they reinitiate the dividend,
00:19:09.809 --> 00:19:11.690
you're still going to be able to grow it. Whatever
00:19:11.690 --> 00:19:14.000
happens, happens. I don't know. Right. But because
00:19:14.000 --> 00:19:15.859
it's already had a price surge, he'd wanted to
00:19:15.859 --> 00:19:17.900
get the initial off to take the risk of the initial
00:19:17.900 --> 00:19:19.579
investment out of the picture. Because it could
00:19:19.579 --> 00:19:22.299
go down. The merger could be bad or they could
00:19:22.299 --> 00:19:23.960
pull the rug on the merger at the last minute.
00:19:24.019 --> 00:19:26.480
It's supposed to merge in 2027 and they could
00:19:26.480 --> 00:19:28.779
decide that we don't want that. Well, new news
00:19:28.779 --> 00:19:30.099
might come out. And you said, too, that it's
00:19:30.099 --> 00:19:33.099
up to the approval of the SEC or something. They
00:19:33.099 --> 00:19:35.859
reached approval with the politicians. But now
00:19:35.859 --> 00:19:37.839
it has to go through another approval process.
00:19:37.900 --> 00:19:39.900
So the merger may or may not happen. It looks
00:19:39.900 --> 00:19:42.339
like it will. But at the same time, I don't like
00:19:42.339 --> 00:19:45.240
the risk in a retirement portfolio of it could
00:19:45.240 --> 00:19:48.359
happen. I don't. I'm not. Right. It's a possibility.
00:19:48.359 --> 00:19:52.140
It's not a guarantee. So that is that for the
00:19:52.140 --> 00:19:53.660
retirement portfolio. It's doing what it's supposed
00:19:53.660 --> 00:19:56.390
to do. It's slow and steady. And we add positions
00:19:56.390 --> 00:20:00.069
like we did for five new positions with the bond
00:20:00.069 --> 00:20:03.250
in the quarter. And we liquidated some things
00:20:03.250 --> 00:20:06.289
like we'll go over next quarter. We just liquidated
00:20:06.289 --> 00:20:10.930
ABR because it is a shit show. So now we're looking
00:20:10.930 --> 00:20:13.769
at the monthly dividend spreadsheet that we will
00:20:13.769 --> 00:20:15.630
also have linked in the show notes where you
00:20:15.630 --> 00:20:17.769
can see the actual individual tickers and what
00:20:17.769 --> 00:20:20.170
they paid us specifically and the changes from
00:20:20.170 --> 00:20:23.200
quarter to quarter, month to month. Do you have
00:20:23.200 --> 00:20:26.079
any notable discussionary points? Like did something
00:20:26.079 --> 00:20:29.720
massively decrease in payout? ABR, but that's
00:20:29.720 --> 00:20:31.460
why we got out. Right, ABR, but that's why we
00:20:31.460 --> 00:20:34.119
got out. And like I said, Skyworks, if we go
00:20:34.119 --> 00:20:36.220
down to Skyworks, they cut their dividend completely,
00:20:36.359 --> 00:20:37.799
so it's not a big loss. Did you actually talk
00:20:37.799 --> 00:20:41.660
about ABR? Two days ago, I sold all the shares
00:20:41.660 --> 00:20:44.359
of ABR in this conservative portfolio because
00:20:44.359 --> 00:20:47.019
I think it's three to five years away from a
00:20:47.019 --> 00:20:48.700
turnaround and I don't have that much time to
00:20:48.700 --> 00:20:51.109
wait for a... potential maybe it turns around
00:20:51.109 --> 00:20:52.990
maybe it doesn't and this is based off what the
00:20:52.990 --> 00:20:55.410
earnings report earnings and their actual their
00:20:55.410 --> 00:20:57.890
um their earnings call when they they said what
00:20:57.890 --> 00:21:00.490
we have they have like 40 of their portfolio
00:21:00.490 --> 00:21:03.119
is like they're not paying on it. So they have
00:21:03.119 --> 00:21:04.779
a billion, like they have over a billion dollars
00:21:04.779 --> 00:21:07.599
in, in loans that aren't being paid on. That's
00:21:07.599 --> 00:21:10.000
not good. I'm assuming they cut the dividend
00:21:10.000 --> 00:21:13.079
from 30 cents or they cut it from 43 to 30 last
00:21:13.079 --> 00:21:15.059
year. And then they cut it from 30 to 17. So
00:21:15.059 --> 00:21:17.099
they have had two cuts. So I just got, I got,
00:21:17.140 --> 00:21:19.359
I sold half the position when they cut it the
00:21:19.359 --> 00:21:22.180
first time. And I just sold the other half now
00:21:22.180 --> 00:21:25.539
because I'm just done. And that's that I'm done
00:21:25.539 --> 00:21:28.529
with it. In this portfolio. Right. In the main
00:21:28.529 --> 00:21:31.309
portfolio, we still hold it because we have time.
00:21:31.430 --> 00:21:33.029
We have three to five years to wait for it to
00:21:33.029 --> 00:21:35.670
turn around. Right. The time horizon on this
00:21:35.670 --> 00:21:37.609
portfolio specifically, because my mom is 68
00:21:37.609 --> 00:21:40.630
now and we have to start liquidating or pulling
00:21:40.630 --> 00:21:43.390
or drawing or whatever they call it at 70 for
00:21:43.390 --> 00:21:47.230
her. So we don't need that headache or that incongruency
00:21:47.230 --> 00:21:50.349
in this portfolio. So Skyworks, we weren't making
00:21:50.349 --> 00:21:52.490
a lot to begin with. We made 29 in the first
00:21:52.490 --> 00:21:54.789
quarter, 36 in the second quarter, and 40 in
00:21:54.789 --> 00:21:56.589
the third quarter. So it's not a huge loss income
00:21:56.589 --> 00:21:59.789
-wise. But we still do, like I said, have 17
00:21:59.789 --> 00:22:03.369
shares. But we'd actually reallocated that to
00:22:03.369 --> 00:22:06.190
positions that are in this. We already have.
00:22:06.230 --> 00:22:07.910
I didn't actually initiate another position.
00:22:08.950 --> 00:22:11.309
Yet. yet you would you do put it in dry powder
00:22:11.309 --> 00:22:14.829
no i put it into mrp which we initiated in quarter
00:22:14.829 --> 00:22:17.109
four we've already initiated that one that was
00:22:17.109 --> 00:22:19.569
not one that we didn't talk about i added to
00:22:19.569 --> 00:22:23.309
stk i added to vsnt and i added to sny with the
00:22:23.309 --> 00:22:26.730
arbor proceeds so he took that and he spread
00:22:26.730 --> 00:22:29.630
it around to other stuff so that's that like
00:22:29.630 --> 00:22:31.250
if you scroll to the bottom you can see like
00:22:31.250 --> 00:22:33.710
we're doing okay on this one 15 like it's been
00:22:33.710 --> 00:22:38.599
about 1600 a month there thereabouts What is
00:22:38.599 --> 00:22:41.160
that from a yield? You said it's 4 % for the
00:22:41.160 --> 00:22:45.319
quarter, which puts her at what? 4 times 4 is
00:22:45.319 --> 00:22:49.140
16 % for a conservative portfolio. It's really
00:22:49.140 --> 00:22:53.700
hard to do the actual yield versus principle
00:22:53.700 --> 00:22:56.480
because the principle is always in flux. I mean,
00:22:56.500 --> 00:22:59.000
you can calculate it throughout the year. but
00:22:59.000 --> 00:23:01.059
you said what four four point whatever percent
00:23:01.059 --> 00:23:03.559
maybe 4 .1 and quarter three and i think we made
00:23:03.559 --> 00:23:06.700
two percent and the cons the concept of the the
00:23:06.700 --> 00:23:08.880
yield actually when you have a portfolio that
00:23:08.880 --> 00:23:11.279
you're constantly reinvesting into that yield
00:23:11.279 --> 00:23:14.819
goes up year over year because you're recompounding.
00:23:14.920 --> 00:23:16.599
So it's the magic of compounding. And if you
00:23:16.599 --> 00:23:19.140
look at one of those exponential charts, that's
00:23:19.140 --> 00:23:20.759
what compounding essentially does. It creates
00:23:20.759 --> 00:23:23.339
that. It's not a direct line. It's an inverse
00:23:23.339 --> 00:23:26.480
proportion in your favor, which is why interest
00:23:26.480 --> 00:23:30.019
in the opposite in debt hurts so hard. But you'll
00:23:30.019 --> 00:23:34.380
see that she has made about $13 ,100 and three
00:23:34.380 --> 00:23:36.440
quarters in dividends, which is pretty good.
00:23:36.500 --> 00:23:41.119
$13 ,800 minus $730. And you'll see that the
00:23:41.119 --> 00:23:44.539
first quarter was 43, the second quarter 43 .14,
00:23:44.680 --> 00:23:46.799
the second quarter was 43 .79, and the third
00:23:46.799 --> 00:23:49.380
quarter was 44 .13. So it's gradually just going
00:23:49.380 --> 00:23:51.220
up. Ticking up. So we want to see, that's what
00:23:51.220 --> 00:23:52.920
I said with that compounding exponential growth
00:23:52.920 --> 00:23:54.960
thing. So if you plotted this, I should plot
00:23:54.960 --> 00:23:57.839
these at some point on an actual plot graph and
00:23:57.839 --> 00:24:00.339
show the increase, whereas ours is like up, down,
00:24:00.380 --> 00:24:02.559
up, down. But if you did it yearly, you'd probably
00:24:02.559 --> 00:24:05.660
get a lot better of a curve. Yeah. So that's
00:24:05.660 --> 00:24:07.900
the conservative retirement portfolio. It's doing
00:24:07.900 --> 00:24:09.759
exactly what it's supposed to do. It actually,
00:24:09.819 --> 00:24:12.880
I was looking at the numbers. This one is up
00:24:12.880 --> 00:24:17.740
about 13 % year to date. And we're in the beginning
00:24:17.740 --> 00:24:20.140
of September. The NASDAQ is up 12%. Wait, the
00:24:20.140 --> 00:24:24.940
NASDAQ is up 12%. The S &P is up 10%. And the
00:24:24.940 --> 00:24:28.000
Dow is up about 13%. So this one's just in like
00:24:28.000 --> 00:24:30.119
it's moving in line with the other three big
00:24:30.119 --> 00:24:33.259
indexes, indices, however you want to say it.
00:24:33.579 --> 00:24:35.519
So this one's doing what it's supposed to do.
00:24:35.579 --> 00:24:37.180
It's just like it's - And that's a really good
00:24:37.180 --> 00:24:39.319
yield for a conservative because like a total
00:24:39.319 --> 00:24:41.660
market index would also include risky assets.
00:24:41.720 --> 00:24:43.599
This does not really include the risky assets.
00:24:43.640 --> 00:24:45.019
So the fact that this is keeping comparative
00:24:45.019 --> 00:24:48.259
with the total market indexes and this is more
00:24:48.259 --> 00:24:50.640
conservative is freaking awesome because this
00:24:50.640 --> 00:24:52.779
will have less of a principal hit if the markets
00:24:52.779 --> 00:24:54.680
do hit a recession or decline or whatever we
00:24:54.680 --> 00:24:57.079
said might happen, depending on where the economic
00:24:57.079 --> 00:25:00.180
stuff goes. We're going to switch over now to
00:25:00.180 --> 00:25:03.759
our main portfolio, which is the - It's a nice
00:25:03.759 --> 00:25:06.920
hybrid between risk and return. So it's like
00:25:06.920 --> 00:25:07.420
the middle ground.
