When Is the Right Time for MIDTERMS PANIC?!

WEBVTT
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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
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Are you new to prediction markets?
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Do you need a crash course to figure out what these things are,
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how they work,
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if you can get involved in them?
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Predictable101.com is the place for you.
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Check it out,
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get involved in them if you want to.
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If you just want to learn what's going on in the election,
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we have tons of that going on as well.
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Is it time to panic yet?
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That's the conversation we're gonna have today.
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We have a candidate countdown,
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another candidate in a race that I like,
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and a couple other markets that I kinda like
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as well that I think you'll be interested in.
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Go to predictableShow.com,
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get involved,
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premium subscribers,
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get all sorts of great benefits including
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every prediction market position that I have.
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You can just look at them and decide whether you wanna follow them or not.
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So check it out,
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predictableShow.com.
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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
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Here we go.
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Let's get right to it.
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It's a big day.
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You know,
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we're 41 days away from the midterm elections,
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right around the corner,
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and you might say,
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well,
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that seems still,
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it's like it's like 6 weeks,
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no big deal.
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Well,
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I will tell you lots of places are already early voting,
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and,
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uh,
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coming up on Thursday,
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Illinois,
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uh,
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starts that process along with uh Maine
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and a bunch of other states as we go into October.
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I want to talk to you about the panic button.
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Is it time to hit the panic button?
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Republicans are hitting the panic button.
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That's according to Punchbowl News today.
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Uh,
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they say that they are hitting the panic button
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before election day.
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Uh,
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gas prices are sky high,
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diesel's setting a new record almost daily,
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they say.
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Trump said at the United Nations that the Iran
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war won't end until after the midterm elections.
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Frightening prospect for the GOP,
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according to the Punch Bowl News report.
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They say they talk about some people taking new positions,
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trying to like get out ahead of this,
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try to,
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how do we,
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how do we push back.
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Ashley Hinson,
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senator,
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uh,
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Senate candidate in,
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uh,
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Iowa,
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is demanding the House return to session to enact a ban on diesel exports.
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There's other people saying,
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hey,
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we need to end this war right away.
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That's going on,
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and Republicans are trying to fix these problems the best that they can.
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With just an ungodly amount of money.
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Uh,
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and by the way,
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that is a,
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I'm not,
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that's not me being critical
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of the GOP.
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I think,
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uh,
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you know,
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if they do what they're saying they're doing here,
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I mean,
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I,
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we can't blame them for,
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for spending if they lose.
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Um,
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Texas PAC,
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the Senate Leadership Fund's Lone Star State,
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uh,
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Super PAC,
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adding more than $35 million
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to its already $65 million in TV reservations.
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That puts the GOP leadership endorsed group
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above $100 million in ads to boost Attorney General Ken Paxson over
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James Tallarico,
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the weird
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youth pastor that kicked that left your church in disgrace.
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Uh,
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every time I see him,
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that's what I think of.
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Um,
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all told,
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Republicans expect to spend,
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uh,
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expect to spend between $150 and $200 million in Texas
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to save Paxton.
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I've been critical of Republicans and,
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and what,
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and,
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you know,
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the way they're handling this.
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If they spend $200 million to try to save Ken Paxton and it doesn't work.
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It's not their problem.
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That's,
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that's all on Paxson if he can't win that election.
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That's a lot of resources,
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and these are resources that,
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of course,
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Republicans
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hoped not to spend
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in a place
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like Texas.
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So we will see
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how that goes.
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A new poll out from CNN today.
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Trump midterm woes deepen amid worsened economic backdrop.
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I want to show you a couple of the details of this because look,
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I can show you bad polls honestly for the Republicans every day,
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and,
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uh,
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you should know about them.
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We have a tool at predictableShow.com called the PMC.
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It's the predictable midterm
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consensus,
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and what it does is it takes all these polls from all the places,
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puts them all together in one place,
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it models,
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it takes all the election models you can think of,
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some that are prominent,
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some you've never heard of.
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We go through,
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uh,
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the fundamentals of the race,
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the expert opinions,
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the fundraising,
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all the details,
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go through everything.
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And we give you one place
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to land.
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It's called the PMC,
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the Predictable Market Consensus.
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You can get it at predictableshow.com.
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It's free for you when you're looking for the Senate and House control.
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If you want
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details to every single race,
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that's a part of the premium
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tier.
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The bottom line is,
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and it,
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by the way,
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it also helps you
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compare those numbers against
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the prediction market numbers.
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It's a great way
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to look for value.
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I did an update last night on this,
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and there's one state that's like 20 points different.
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Now one of these is gonna be wrong
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by a large margin.
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And we will get into who that is and,
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and why that is
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uh coming up.
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Um,
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I wanna also show you this,
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this is breaking it down by topic and,
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you know,
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they,
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these are disturbing polls.
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Gonna be honest with you,
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it's disturbing polls.
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Let me set the,
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the tone here really quick for you.
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What we're thinking about now is 2018.
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2018 was a very bad year for Republicans in the midterms.
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It was,
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uh,
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borderline,
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not quite,
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but borderline catastrophic.
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There have been catastrophic years that have been worse than this
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for Republicans,
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but 2018 was pretty rough,
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pretty rough year.
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Let me show you comparisons between 2018 and 2026.
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This is in this poll,
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and you might say,
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well,
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it's a CNN poll,
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I don't believe it.
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First of all,
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I mean,
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it's,
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it's always good to be skeptical of any poll,
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uh,
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especially from a,
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from an organization you might not trust.
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Uh,
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but these,
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the one thing that that's interesting to understand here is these are both
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CNN polls.
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So these are just comparing apples to apples here.
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What's the difference between the view of the American people,
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according to CNN
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both times,
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2018,
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2026,
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Trump's job as president in his midterm here,
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he was -22
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in September 2018,
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58% disapproved,
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36% approved.
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This poll shows him at -24,
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so 2 points worse
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at 33% approval,
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67% disapproval.
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But it gets much,
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much worse and scarier than that.
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Trump's handling of the economy.
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In 2018,
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he was +5.
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Remember,
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2018,
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the economy is going pretty well.
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People,
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you know,
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they might not like Donald Trump and all of his mean tweets,
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but
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the economy is doing really well.
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He's +5 in 2018.
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Now,
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he is minus.
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46.
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On the economy,
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-46.
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I don't think I need to tell you that that's a catastrophic number.
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By the way,
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that's one of the reasons why he was brought into
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office because he's supposed to be the economy guy.
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Everyone loves him for that.
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They are falling out of love,
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at least according to this poll.
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Rating of economic conditions in the country today,
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he was +41 in 2018.
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He's now -44.
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Now,
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that's not exactly a Trump-specific poll,
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it's just a rating of the economic conditions.
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But the bottom line is they do not see this
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positively.
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The American people look at this,
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and this is
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not just CNN,
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it's in pretty much every poll
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will show you that things are not so great when it comes to the economy.
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You also might know that by going to your gas pump,
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right?
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You might not need a CNN poll to tell you
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that things aren't going so swimmingly.
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It's very difficult to win elections in an environment like this.
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I mean,
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I go back,
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I've been doing this for 30 years now.
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And you go back through these elections,
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and I can remember entire elections being focused almost completely
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on what the price was at the pump.
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It's what all,
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whenever a Republican,
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George W.
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Bush had to deal with this multiple times,
289
00:07:23.740 --> 00:07:25.010
whenever a Republican ran,
290
00:07:25.220 --> 00:07:26.770
all they talked about on the news
291
00:07:27.130 --> 00:07:28.210
was gas prices,
292
00:07:28.230 --> 00:07:29.730
and then Obama got into office and it was like,
293
00:07:29.750 --> 00:07:30.490
gas prices,
294
00:07:30.580 --> 00:07:33.370
why would anyone care about such an insignificant thing?
295
00:07:33.620 --> 00:07:33.690
Well,
296
00:07:33.780 --> 00:07:35.520
the media is hitting him with that same
297
00:07:36.060 --> 00:07:36.760
treatment today.
298
00:07:37.260 --> 00:07:37.680
And
299
00:07:37.950 --> 00:07:38.080
look,
300
00:07:38.100 --> 00:07:38.370
it's,
301
00:07:38.420 --> 00:07:40.130
it's real for a lot of people.
302
00:07:40.260 --> 00:07:41.890
If you happen to be a truck driver,
303
00:07:41.980 --> 00:07:43.330
you really understand this.
304
00:07:43.420 --> 00:07:43.610
I mean,
305
00:07:43.660 --> 00:07:45.320
this is absolutely killing you with,
306
00:07:45.460 --> 00:07:46.560
with diesel prices.
307
00:07:46.720 --> 00:07:47.670
It's a real thing,
308
00:07:47.860 --> 00:07:48.780
it's really hitting people,
309
00:07:48.820 --> 00:07:50.210
and I will say this to you too,
310
00:07:50.260 --> 00:07:51.650
if you happen to be one of those people who's like,
311
00:07:51.700 --> 00:07:51.850
oh,
312
00:07:52.100 --> 00:07:52.680
you know,
313
00:07:52.990 --> 00:07:53.090
uh,
314
00:07:53.110 --> 00:07:53.800
gas prices,
315
00:07:53.820 --> 00:07:54.010
come on,
316
00:07:54.060 --> 00:07:55.200
it's not that big of a deal.
317
00:07:55.500 --> 00:07:55.730
First of all,
318
00:07:55.770 --> 00:07:58.610
it's a big deal to people who are dealing with that on a day to day basis,
319
00:07:58.700 --> 00:08:02.210
but it's also a big deal to you because when diesel prices are high,
320
00:08:02.750 --> 00:08:04.360
Everything you buy,
321
00:08:04.550 --> 00:08:04.660
uh,
322
00:08:04.830 --> 00:08:05.850
goes up in price
323
00:08:06.070 --> 00:08:06.530
because
324
00:08:06.630 --> 00:08:08.610
it's being trucked across the country
325
00:08:09.070 --> 00:08:09.540
with diesel,
326
00:08:09.590 --> 00:08:09.740
and,
327
00:08:09.790 --> 00:08:09.940
you know,
328
00:08:09.990 --> 00:08:11.620
it's just one part of the diesel
329
00:08:12.260 --> 00:08:12.620
experience.
330
00:08:12.670 --> 00:08:13.300
It's
331
00:08:13.470 --> 00:08:15.570
people really need this fuel.
332
00:08:15.950 --> 00:08:16.370
So,
333
00:08:16.670 --> 00:08:16.740
uh,
334
00:08:16.830 --> 00:08:17.860
I'll give you one other thing.
335
00:08:17.950 --> 00:08:18.740
This is a generic ballot.
336
00:08:18.820 --> 00:08:19.700
We've been talking a lot about it.
337
00:08:19.720 --> 00:08:20.960
I wanted to give you their number.
338
00:08:21.430 --> 00:08:23.980
This is maybe a slight bit of good news from this poll,
339
00:08:24.070 --> 00:08:24.140
uh,
340
00:08:24.230 --> 00:08:25.650
in September 2018,
341
00:08:25.950 --> 00:08:26.110
um,
342
00:08:26.390 --> 00:08:28.820
Republicans were -12 on the generic ballot.
343
00:08:29.120 --> 00:08:30.460
Here they're only -8.
344
00:08:30.950 --> 00:08:32.809
So -8 is still
345
00:08:32.950 --> 00:08:33.620
pretty bad.
346
00:08:33.750 --> 00:08:35.100
It's about 2018 levels,
347
00:08:35.200 --> 00:08:38.690
slightly better in 2018 levels compared to the CNN poll.
348
00:08:39.030 --> 00:08:41.250
Most polls show it around -8,
349
00:08:41.539 --> 00:08:41.780
um,
350
00:08:41.980 --> 00:08:42.100
uh,
351
00:08:42.470 --> 00:08:42.809
anyway,
352
00:08:43.110 --> 00:08:45.820
but that is a significant improvement.
353
00:08:45.910 --> 00:08:46.040
I mean,
354
00:08:46.110 --> 00:08:47.040
if you're holding that,
355
00:08:47.110 --> 00:08:47.340
uh,
356
00:08:47.460 --> 00:08:47.970
uh,
357
00:08:48.070 --> 00:08:49.820
if you can keep that gap smaller.
358
00:08:50.140 --> 00:08:51.520
Than it was in 2018.
359
00:08:51.730 --> 00:08:54.510
This is probably gonna be a rough year but not a catastrophic year.
360
00:08:55.010 --> 00:08:57.450
2018 to me is the beginning
361
00:08:57.590 --> 00:08:59.470
of cat uh catastrophe.
362
00:08:59.890 --> 00:09:01.200
That's kind of how I think about it.
363
00:09:01.500 --> 00:09:01.720
Um,
364
00:09:01.890 --> 00:09:02.270
and
365
00:09:03.310 --> 00:09:05.250
I get a question over and over and over again.
366
00:09:05.710 --> 00:09:07.140
Cause I talk about this stuff all the time.
367
00:09:07.270 --> 00:09:07.700
Yesterday,
368
00:09:07.720 --> 00:09:09.930
we did a best case scenario for Republicans.
369
00:09:10.230 --> 00:09:10.380
Um,
370
00:09:10.470 --> 00:09:11.900
I don't know if it's coincidence that the,
371
00:09:12.030 --> 00:09:13.190
the episode did really,
372
00:09:13.270 --> 00:09:13.980
really well.
373
00:09:14.250 --> 00:09:16.540
I think people are looking for hope and I'd love to give you hope,
374
00:09:16.600 --> 00:09:17.290
but I also
375
00:09:17.430 --> 00:09:19.020
wanna make sure I'm telling you exactly what's
376
00:09:19.020 --> 00:09:21.070
going on to the best of my understanding.
377
00:09:21.320 --> 00:09:22.260
That's my job here.
378
00:09:22.390 --> 00:09:22.770
Um,
379
00:09:22.990 --> 00:09:23.070
I,
380
00:09:23.150 --> 00:09:23.260
I,
381
00:09:23.310 --> 00:09:23.460
I,
382
00:09:23.550 --> 00:09:24.860
I wanna give you good news when I can.
383
00:09:25.280 --> 00:09:25.350
Uh,
384
00:09:25.440 --> 00:09:26.990
I don't wanna hide good news from you,
385
00:09:27.280 --> 00:09:28.910
but I also wanna make sure you understand
386
00:09:28.910 --> 00:09:31.700
that right now things are not necessarily lining up
387
00:09:31.880 --> 00:09:35.030
well if you happen to be a conservative or a Republican.
388
00:09:35.290 --> 00:09:37.860
So let's take a quick look at the predictable
389
00:09:38.010 --> 00:09:38.780
post office.
390
00:09:46.790 --> 00:09:47.670
This question,
391
00:09:47.990 --> 00:09:50.300
question comes to you from a premium subscriber,
392
00:09:50.430 --> 00:09:51.770
Richard in Mesa.
393
00:09:51.910 --> 00:09:52.180
He says,
394
00:09:52.270 --> 00:09:53.290
my main question
395
00:09:53.390 --> 00:09:54.220
is pretty simple.
396
00:09:55.420 --> 00:09:56.420
When do I panic?
397
00:09:56.840 --> 00:09:58.990
I've got money on Paxton in Texas
398
00:09:59.160 --> 00:10:00.860
and on Republicans holding the Senate.
399
00:10:01.160 --> 00:10:04.780
When do I start worrying about those positions and
400
00:10:05.120 --> 00:10:08.300
when does worrying turn into some actually doing something?
401
00:10:09.180 --> 00:10:10.410
Should I stop adding?
402
00:10:11.180 --> 00:10:12.550
Should I cut back?
403
00:10:13.150 --> 00:10:14.400
Should I pick up some
404
00:10:14.620 --> 00:10:17.930
democratic position so I don't have everything riding on the same outcome?
405
00:10:18.140 --> 00:10:20.850
I don't want to overreact and sell things I'll regret selling,
406
00:10:20.980 --> 00:10:21.240
but
407
00:10:21.380 --> 00:10:25.050
I don't want to keep telling myself it'll be fine until it's too late.
408
00:10:25.480 --> 00:10:27.890
How do you tell the difference between being patient?
409
00:10:28.610 --> 00:10:29.620
And being stubborn
410
00:10:30.900 --> 00:10:31.820
Basically,
411
00:10:32.620 --> 00:10:34.570
should I already be panicking,
412
00:10:34.820 --> 00:10:35.700
says Richard
413
00:10:36.140 --> 00:10:36.650
in Mesa,
414
00:10:36.700 --> 00:10:37.130
Arizona.
415
00:10:37.220 --> 00:10:37.530
By the way,
416
00:10:37.690 --> 00:10:40.160
questions at predictableShow.com if you've got,
417
00:10:40.220 --> 00:10:40.330
uh,
418
00:10:40.420 --> 00:10:42.640
or you can go on the chat at predictableShow.com as well
419
00:10:42.980 --> 00:10:43.170
to,
420
00:10:43.260 --> 00:10:43.530
uh,
421
00:10:43.660 --> 00:10:44.160
to get,
422
00:10:44.260 --> 00:10:44.860
uh,
423
00:10:45.340 --> 00:10:46.390
your questions in.
424
00:10:46.620 --> 00:10:47.600
It's a great question.
425
00:10:48.060 --> 00:10:48.470
It's
426
00:10:49.330 --> 00:10:50.080
And I wanna make sure I,
427
00:10:50.170 --> 00:10:50.240
I,
428
00:10:50.330 --> 00:10:51.230
I say this clearly.
429
00:10:51.630 --> 00:10:54.210
It is how you should be thinking right now.
430
00:10:54.450 --> 00:10:55.990
You should not be thinking with rose
431
00:10:56.210 --> 00:10:59.000
colored glasses that everything's gonna turn out OK for any Republican
432
00:10:59.000 --> 00:11:00.680
position that I took or any position that you took.
433
00:11:00.770 --> 00:11:02.450
You should always be questioning yourself.
434
00:11:02.770 --> 00:11:04.270
That is one of the hardest things to do.
435
00:11:04.420 --> 00:11:06.210
If you look at the book Super Forecasting,
436
00:11:06.290 --> 00:11:06.720
it's in there,
437
00:11:06.770 --> 00:11:07.020
it's,
438
00:11:07.090 --> 00:11:10.470
it's in anybody who's written a book about forecasting or trying to predict things,
439
00:11:10.610 --> 00:11:11.320
will tell you the same stuff.
440
00:11:11.430 --> 00:11:13.190
You gotta be constantly
441
00:11:13.350 --> 00:11:14.370
questioning yourself
442
00:11:14.570 --> 00:11:15.160
all the time.
443
00:11:15.570 --> 00:11:17.820
You need to put yourself on the line
444
00:11:18.090 --> 00:11:18.870
all the time
445
00:11:18.970 --> 00:11:21.590
and push your own preconceived notions
446
00:11:22.110 --> 00:11:22.680
all the time.
447
00:11:22.770 --> 00:11:23.000
It's,
448
00:11:23.110 --> 00:11:24.480
and this is why this isn't for everybody,
449
00:11:24.570 --> 00:11:24.920
honestly,
450
00:11:25.010 --> 00:11:26.080
when it comes to prediction markets.
451
00:11:26.130 --> 00:11:27.390
It's difficult to do that.
452
00:11:27.730 --> 00:11:27.880
You know,
453
00:11:27.930 --> 00:11:29.790
it's a lot easier to kinda have an opinion and
454
00:11:29.930 --> 00:11:30.360
when you're wrong,
455
00:11:30.440 --> 00:11:32.090
you kinda forget it and move on to the next thing.
456
00:11:32.210 --> 00:11:33.680
You can't do that with prediction markets.
457
00:11:33.850 --> 00:11:35.030
They hold you responsible
458
00:11:35.170 --> 00:11:36.320
because you have money on the line.
459
00:11:37.150 --> 00:11:37.520
So,
460
00:11:37.740 --> 00:11:38.700
Richard's question
461
00:11:38.940 --> 00:11:39.720
is a great one.
462
00:11:40.260 --> 00:11:41.160
Should I panic?
463
00:11:41.420 --> 00:11:42.650
I'm gonna break this into two pieces.
464
00:11:42.740 --> 00:11:43.370
Number 1,
465
00:11:43.660 --> 00:11:48.290
if you're concerned about just the Republicans um outlook for the election.
466
00:11:49.290 --> 00:11:51.330
You should probably do what the Republicans are doing.
467
00:11:51.450 --> 00:11:52.320
Remember at the beginning,
468
00:11:52.570 --> 00:11:52.960
beginning of this,
469
00:11:53.010 --> 00:11:54.680
we talked about hitting the panic button.
470
00:11:55.010 --> 00:11:57.210
You probably should hit the panic button here.
471
00:11:57.370 --> 00:12:00.660
And what the panic button means when it comes to day to day politics
472
00:12:00.850 --> 00:12:01.270
is
473
00:12:02.320 --> 00:12:03.780
There's no more holding back.
474
00:12:04.200 --> 00:12:05.090
If you were concerned,
475
00:12:05.280 --> 00:12:05.510
you know,
476
00:12:05.670 --> 00:12:08.630
should I bother volunteering and making a few phone calls?
477
00:12:08.800 --> 00:12:10.590
Should I bother going knocking door to door?
478
00:12:10.670 --> 00:12:13.740
Should I bother convincing my friend about this or that?
479
00:12:14.910 --> 00:12:18.700
Whatever you think is the right thing for you to do in that situation,
480
00:12:18.790 --> 00:12:19.980
it's time to pull it out of the,
481
00:12:20.150 --> 00:12:22.010
the magic trick box because
482
00:12:22.430 --> 00:12:22.660
right now,
483
00:12:22.710 --> 00:12:24.730
this is a challenging situation
484
00:12:25.030 --> 00:12:25.820
for Republicans.
485
00:12:25.910 --> 00:12:27.220
Maybe we can talk to Steve Dace,
486
00:12:27.310 --> 00:12:27.420
uh,
487
00:12:27.590 --> 00:12:28.180
later on this week.
488
00:12:28.230 --> 00:12:29.780
He had a tweet that kind of went viral
489
00:12:30.070 --> 00:12:31.050
about how bad it is,
490
00:12:31.070 --> 00:12:31.380
even in,
491
00:12:31.430 --> 00:12:32.340
in a place like Iowa,
492
00:12:32.370 --> 00:12:33.450
a place that I have money.
493
00:12:33.550 --> 00:12:34.980
I have money on Ashley Hinson
494
00:12:35.230 --> 00:12:36.080
in Iowa.
495
00:12:36.390 --> 00:12:36.930
Um,
496
00:12:37.360 --> 00:12:39.060
am I concerned about the position?
497
00:12:39.230 --> 00:12:39.340
Yeah,
498
00:12:39.470 --> 00:12:41.490
a lot more concerned than I was a month or two ago.
499
00:12:41.970 --> 00:12:42.040
Uh,
500
00:12:42.150 --> 00:12:44.120
and that is something that's part of the process
501
00:12:44.120 --> 00:12:45.680
that I go through every one of these elections.
502
00:12:45.770 --> 00:12:46.740
When I take a position,
503
00:12:47.170 --> 00:12:48.320
I look at it and I say,
504
00:12:48.410 --> 00:12:48.470
do,
505
00:12:48.570 --> 00:12:49.570
am I still confident in it?
506
00:12:49.650 --> 00:12:50.320
With Ashley Hinson,
507
00:12:50.390 --> 00:12:52.100
I'm still optimistic about that position.
508
00:12:52.410 --> 00:12:52.750
Um,
509
00:12:52.890 --> 00:12:53.170
I'm,
510
00:12:53.290 --> 00:12:53.480
you know,
511
00:12:53.610 --> 00:12:54.960
I'm gonna look at that and I'm gonna take some,
512
00:12:55.050 --> 00:12:56.950
I'm gonna tell you some steps on how to deal with this.
513
00:12:57.170 --> 00:12:58.510
But when it comes to actually
514
00:12:58.850 --> 00:13:00.080
talking about the election
515
00:13:00.410 --> 00:13:01.280
with your friends,
516
00:13:01.530 --> 00:13:02.270
trying to move people,
517
00:13:02.370 --> 00:13:03.420
doing volunteering,
518
00:13:03.690 --> 00:13:04.160
donating,
519
00:13:04.290 --> 00:13:06.310
whatever you think is the right thing to do.
520
00:13:06.720 --> 00:13:06.870
Yeah,
521
00:13:07.000 --> 00:13:08.590
it's probably time to do it if you,
522
00:13:08.640 --> 00:13:08.830
uh,
523
00:13:08.920 --> 00:13:11.240
want your side to win because this is a key,
524
00:13:11.480 --> 00:13:12.300
a key moment.
525
00:13:12.640 --> 00:13:14.210
On the prediction market side,
526
00:13:15.250 --> 00:13:16.120
I'm not panicking.
527
00:13:17.300 --> 00:13:18.590
I have a,
528
00:13:18.620 --> 00:13:18.730
uh,
529
00:13:18.820 --> 00:13:21.040
a good amount of money on
530
00:13:21.310 --> 00:13:23.650
both Republican and Democratic candidates here.
531
00:13:24.100 --> 00:13:28.310
I have a portfolio that is pretty widespread over
532
00:13:28.500 --> 00:13:29.980
over 300 positions.
533
00:13:30.060 --> 00:13:31.250
If you go to predictableShow.com,
534
00:13:31.300 --> 00:13:32.370
you can see each one of them.
535
00:13:32.700 --> 00:13:32.730
Uh,
536
00:13:32.820 --> 00:13:34.720
over 300 positions in prediction markets,
537
00:13:34.980 --> 00:13:36.370
and I have those,
538
00:13:36.420 --> 00:13:36.890
uh,
539
00:13:37.180 --> 00:13:37.650
those,
540
00:13:37.820 --> 00:13:37.970
uh,
541
00:13:38.020 --> 00:13:39.400
positions laid out,
542
00:13:39.770 --> 00:13:40.070
um,
543
00:13:40.340 --> 00:13:41.660
for you to be able to look at.
544
00:13:42.430 --> 00:13:43.520
A lot of them are,
545
00:13:43.680 --> 00:13:43.910
there's,
546
00:13:44.000 --> 00:13:46.400
they kind of fall into a different bunch of different boxes.
547
00:13:46.680 --> 00:13:48.150
Some Democrats that I think are,
548
00:13:48.240 --> 00:13:49.370
I'm almost sure are going to win.
549
00:13:49.400 --> 00:13:50.640
Some Republicans I feel really,
550
00:13:50.720 --> 00:13:52.340
really confident and almost sure
551
00:13:52.570 --> 00:13:53.510
are going to win.
552
00:13:53.840 --> 00:13:56.250
And then as she's kind of stepped down off of that basis,
553
00:13:56.320 --> 00:13:57.700
you start seeing races where,
554
00:13:57.720 --> 00:13:57.830
like,
555
00:13:57.880 --> 00:13:57.910
um,
556
00:13:58.120 --> 00:13:58.270
you know,
557
00:13:58.320 --> 00:13:59.270
Ashley Hinson's a good example.
558
00:13:59.360 --> 00:14:00.220
I think she's favored.
559
00:14:00.400 --> 00:14:03.020
I think she's favored by more than where she is now in these markets.
560
00:14:03.140 --> 00:14:05.220
I feel confident that there's value in there,
561
00:14:05.510 --> 00:14:08.310
but that does not mean I'm 100% sure she's going to win.
562
00:14:08.760 --> 00:14:10.580
I'm looking for value in these candidates,
563
00:14:10.960 --> 00:14:11.250
so.
564
00:14:11.720 --> 00:14:13.420
And you have those on both sides as well.
565
00:14:15.260 --> 00:14:17.150
What I wanna make sure is that I'm,
566
00:14:17.240 --> 00:14:17.430
I'm,
567
00:14:17.480 --> 00:14:18.700
I'm balanced right,
568
00:14:18.960 --> 00:14:20.750
and I wanna make sure I don't panic
569
00:14:21.050 --> 00:14:22.270
until it's time to panic.
570
00:14:22.560 --> 00:14:25.430
And that question of when should I panic has been weighing
571
00:14:25.430 --> 00:14:27.310
on me here for the next last couple of weeks.
572
00:14:27.440 --> 00:14:28.240
When should I panic?
573
00:14:28.360 --> 00:14:29.300
When should I do that?
574
00:14:29.720 --> 00:14:31.960
And after extensive research,
575
00:14:32.360 --> 00:14:33.340
and back and forth,
576
00:14:33.440 --> 00:14:35.820
and arguing with myself and everybody on the team,
577
00:14:36.360 --> 00:14:37.550
when should we panic?
578
00:14:37.960 --> 00:14:39.230
We've come up with the day.
579
00:14:40.180 --> 00:14:41.210
We should panic
580
00:14:41.420 --> 00:14:42.780
on October 19th.
581
00:14:43.630 --> 00:14:44.020
Yes,
582
00:14:44.270 --> 00:14:45.360
October 19th,
583
00:14:45.550 --> 00:14:45.860
Monday,
584
00:14:45.990 --> 00:14:47.810
October 19th is officially.
585
00:14:48.360 --> 00:14:50.150
Predictable panic day.
586
00:14:52.160 --> 00:14:53.780
On October 19th,
587
00:14:54.400 --> 00:14:56.710
if things are not turning around a little bit,
588
00:14:56.800 --> 00:14:58.590
I'm going to start panicking.
589
00:14:59.620 --> 00:15:00.560
And panic
590
00:15:01.710 --> 00:15:02.110
Look,
591
00:15:02.470 --> 00:15:04.780
if someone is breaking into your house,
592
00:15:05.030 --> 00:15:06.900
panic probably a good thing.
593
00:15:07.350 --> 00:15:09.190
But you'd like to be prepared for that situation.
594
00:15:09.630 --> 00:15:11.770
There's a giant tornado coming at your house,
595
00:15:11.930 --> 00:15:13.340
panic might be great,
596
00:15:13.770 --> 00:15:14.820
be good if you're prepared.
597
00:15:15.700 --> 00:15:17.320
I kind of think of it that way.
598
00:15:17.420 --> 00:15:17.530
Like,
599
00:15:17.690 --> 00:15:17.700
uh,
600
00:15:17.780 --> 00:15:18.540
let me
601
00:15:18.910 --> 00:15:19.290
think of,
602
00:15:19.460 --> 00:15:21.980
think of what we are facing right now as sort of like a,
603
00:15:22.020 --> 00:15:23.880
a hurricane that's sitting off coast.
604
00:15:24.180 --> 00:15:24.940
And where I,
605
00:15:25.060 --> 00:15:28.090
what I have done with my prediction market portfolio in this election
606
00:15:28.420 --> 00:15:30.960
is to make sure I am very well positioned
607
00:15:31.130 --> 00:15:33.930
for the overwhelming majority of possibilities.
608
00:15:34.540 --> 00:15:37.210
I don't want to take a lot of risk here.
609
00:15:37.300 --> 00:15:39.740
I'm not trying to get 100 to 1
610
00:15:39.940 --> 00:15:40.870
outcomes,
611
00:15:41.100 --> 00:15:41.210
uh,
612
00:15:41.300 --> 00:15:42.330
and I'm not looking to,
613
00:15:42.630 --> 00:15:43.630
to necessarily
614
00:15:43.900 --> 00:15:45.760
take massive risks
615
00:15:46.020 --> 00:15:48.360
and huge long shots constantly.
616
00:15:48.620 --> 00:15:51.330
What I'm trying to do is grow my portfolio.
617
00:15:51.510 --> 00:15:53.290
People talk about prediction markets or gambling,
618
00:15:53.490 --> 00:15:54.720
not the way we do it here.
619
00:15:55.060 --> 00:15:59.730
The way we do it here is to slowly and methodically grow our portfolio,
620
00:15:59.980 --> 00:16:02.600
and that's why we talk about it in a sense of investing.
621
00:16:03.110 --> 00:16:04.300
These are things that I,
622
00:16:04.390 --> 00:16:06.950
I've spent a lot of time trying to understand and these things that I've,
623
00:16:07.030 --> 00:16:09.050
I've been able to be profitable on.
624
00:16:09.310 --> 00:16:10.710
Every single year I've been involved in,
625
00:16:10.790 --> 00:16:12.050
in prediction markets
626
00:16:12.290 --> 00:16:12.850
over
627
00:16:12.950 --> 00:16:13.530
longer over,
628
00:16:13.550 --> 00:16:14.210
over a decade.
629
00:16:14.310 --> 00:16:15.020
That doesn't sound,
630
00:16:15.150 --> 00:16:16.340
that's not how gambling works.
631
00:16:16.430 --> 00:16:16.580
I mean,
632
00:16:16.630 --> 00:16:16.940
I don't know,
633
00:16:17.030 --> 00:16:19.460
maybe for certain like high-level uh poker players,
634
00:16:19.510 --> 00:16:20.060
it works that way,
635
00:16:20.110 --> 00:16:21.200
but I gotta be honest with you.
636
00:16:21.610 --> 00:16:22.480
I'm not high level,
637
00:16:22.610 --> 00:16:22.760
uh,
638
00:16:22.890 --> 00:16:23.230
you know,
639
00:16:23.290 --> 00:16:26.190
I'm just a normal guy who really is interested in this stuff
640
00:16:26.370 --> 00:16:27.710
and really wants to understand it.
641
00:16:27.930 --> 00:16:28.270
So,
642
00:16:28.410 --> 00:16:29.320
that's why we've,
643
00:16:29.410 --> 00:16:30.160
we've been able to,
644
00:16:30.330 --> 00:16:30.590
to,
645
00:16:30.690 --> 00:16:31.050
uh,
646
00:16:31.250 --> 00:16:33.720
to put the website together and try to guide you through this process.
647
00:16:34.480 --> 00:16:37.390
But when you have a black swan type of event,
648
00:16:38.160 --> 00:16:40.020
You have to start preparing for that.
649
00:16:40.320 --> 00:16:41.910
When you have a situation where there's
650
00:16:41.910 --> 00:16:43.750
a hurricane offshore and they're telling you,
651
00:16:43.840 --> 00:16:43.990
hey,
652
00:16:44.120 --> 00:16:44.580
by the way,
653
00:16:44.800 --> 00:16:46.070
I know you live on the beach.
654
00:16:46.480 --> 00:16:48.420
A hurricane's forming offshore,
655
00:16:48.640 --> 00:16:49.900
does that mean you,
656
00:16:49.960 --> 00:16:50.310
you know,
657
00:16:50.440 --> 00:16:50.710
uh,
658
00:16:51.120 --> 00:16:52.020
run for the hills?
659
00:16:52.170 --> 00:16:53.990
Does that mean you take the car and you go,
660
00:16:54.130 --> 00:16:54.230
uh,
661
00:16:54.320 --> 00:16:54.430
uh,
662
00:16:54.600 --> 00:16:55.390
drive inland?
663
00:16:55.720 --> 00:16:57.430
It might be that point.
664
00:16:58.200 --> 00:16:59.580
But it's not necessarily that point right now.
665
00:17:00.680 --> 00:17:02.310
A lot of the positions that we've taken,
666
00:17:02.430 --> 00:17:03.030
I'm still
667
00:17:03.590 --> 00:17:04.460
completely confident,
668
00:17:04.550 --> 00:17:04.700
uh,
669
00:17:04.790 --> 00:17:05.079
in,
670
00:17:05.180 --> 00:17:06.770
and I feel confident about.
671
00:17:07.069 --> 00:17:09.609
One of the reasons why I took those positions
672
00:17:09.819 --> 00:17:12.849
was because there was a massive shield.
673
00:17:13.230 --> 00:17:14.089
I wasn't taking,
674
00:17:14.390 --> 00:17:14.500
uh,
675
00:17:14.790 --> 00:17:14.940
I mean,
676
00:17:14.990 --> 00:17:15.579
there's a few that I,
677
00:17:15.750 --> 00:17:16.220
I play with,
678
00:17:16.310 --> 00:17:16.569
but like,
679
00:17:16.589 --> 00:17:17.060
I'm not taking,
680
00:17:17.109 --> 00:17:17.750
I'm not the,
681
00:17:17.950 --> 00:17:19.490
the mass majority
682
00:17:19.710 --> 00:17:21.900
of my portfolio are not elections
683
00:17:22.150 --> 00:17:22.609
where,
684
00:17:22.869 --> 00:17:22.980
uh,
685
00:17:23.079 --> 00:17:26.280
I think it's 50 or 51-49 chance that we're gonna win.
686
00:17:26.430 --> 00:17:26.550
I'll,
687
00:17:26.670 --> 00:17:27.980
I'll dabble in those markets.
688
00:17:28.580 --> 00:17:31.720
But I don't put a ton of my money in those markets because I want to,
689
00:17:31.980 --> 00:17:32.130
uh,
690
00:17:32.260 --> 00:17:33.800
be at a place where I can be,
691
00:17:33.860 --> 00:17:34.050
uh,
692
00:17:34.230 --> 00:17:35.170
profitable overall,
693
00:17:35.220 --> 00:17:36.290
and I might miss one of those.
694
00:17:36.420 --> 00:17:38.390
I might miss more than one of those.
695
00:17:38.710 --> 00:17:41.900
So I prepare myself by taking things with massive cushions,
696
00:17:42.300 --> 00:17:42.610
right?
697
00:17:42.900 --> 00:17:42.980
Uh,
698
00:17:43.100 --> 00:17:46.190
if I think it's a 10 point victory for one candidate or the other,
699
00:17:46.930 --> 00:17:47.400
Uh,
700
00:17:47.530 --> 00:17:49.620
I'm comfortable maybe being there
701
00:17:49.990 --> 00:17:50.790
because even if,
702
00:17:50.970 --> 00:17:51.160
uh,
703
00:17:51.330 --> 00:17:53.200
I'm wrong on the election or there's a big,
704
00:17:53.260 --> 00:17:53.440
uh,
705
00:17:53.610 --> 00:17:55.220
movement towards the other candidate,
706
00:17:55.570 --> 00:17:56.560
I'm still winning by 2,
707
00:17:56.810 --> 00:17:57.000
right?
708
00:17:57.290 --> 00:17:58.040
And I'm fine with that.
709
00:17:58.170 --> 00:17:59.280
It's a nice big margin.
710
00:18:00.010 --> 00:18:01.560
I have a lot of those positions,
711
00:18:01.850 --> 00:18:02.710
some of those,
712
00:18:03.210 --> 00:18:04.990
I'm starting to get a little nervous about.
713
00:18:05.720 --> 00:18:09.510
And how do you prepare yourself and how do you shield yourself for what could be,
714
00:18:09.640 --> 00:18:11.040
could be a hurricane
715
00:18:11.280 --> 00:18:12.860
forming off of our shores?
716
00:18:13.810 --> 00:18:14.430
Do you
717
00:18:14.730 --> 00:18:15.840
board up your windows right now?
718
00:18:15.900 --> 00:18:16.510
I say no.
719
00:18:17.590 --> 00:18:18.420
Do you panic right now?
720
00:18:18.480 --> 00:18:19.140
I say no.
721
00:18:20.310 --> 00:18:22.220
Panic Day is October 19th.
722
00:18:22.430 --> 00:18:23.930
When we come back on that Monday,
723
00:18:24.030 --> 00:18:26.390
I will tell you whether I think it's time to panic or not.
724
00:18:26.790 --> 00:18:28.700
And we may be there or we may not be there,
725
00:18:28.790 --> 00:18:30.230
but between now and then,
726
00:18:30.250 --> 00:18:31.260
there are tons of,
727
00:18:31.310 --> 00:18:31.930
let's say,
728
00:18:32.390 --> 00:18:32.870
debates,
729
00:18:33.190 --> 00:18:34.330
massive events
730
00:18:34.480 --> 00:18:35.650
that could shape
731
00:18:35.800 --> 00:18:36.690
the elections.
732
00:18:36.940 --> 00:18:38.710
We're gonna look at those and see what happens.
733
00:18:38.770 --> 00:18:39.780
We're gonna watch the polls,
734
00:18:39.830 --> 00:18:40.740
we're gonna watch the data,
735
00:18:40.830 --> 00:18:41.770
we're gonna see
736
00:18:41.950 --> 00:18:43.210
if Republicans.
737
00:18:43.510 --> 00:18:45.130
Do what our kind of thesis statement,
738
00:18:45.280 --> 00:18:45.430
uh,
739
00:18:45.550 --> 00:18:45.940
has been,
740
00:18:46.030 --> 00:18:47.580
which is come home a little bit.
741
00:18:47.830 --> 00:18:49.660
Do Republicans come back to their own side?
742
00:18:49.750 --> 00:18:50.770
Do they continue,
743
00:18:51.030 --> 00:18:51.180
uh,
744
00:18:51.350 --> 00:18:54.310
to do what they've done for the past several election cycles?
745
00:18:54.510 --> 00:18:54.620
I mean,
746
00:18:54.710 --> 00:18:55.900
2018 was bad.
747
00:18:56.070 --> 00:18:59.680
It was not as catastrophic as the things that I'm looking at preparing for right now.
748
00:19:00.420 --> 00:19:02.200
So let me give you some things that I am doing,
749
00:19:02.820 --> 00:19:03.090
uh,
750
00:19:03.220 --> 00:19:04.130
and thinking about
751
00:19:04.380 --> 00:19:07.250
here as we kind of extend the hurricane analogy a little bit.
752
00:19:08.070 --> 00:19:09.020
It's important that you know that,
753
00:19:09.110 --> 00:19:09.610
you know,
754
00:19:10.430 --> 00:19:11.940
buying sandbags
755
00:19:12.190 --> 00:19:13.060
is not,
756
00:19:13.190 --> 00:19:13.460
you know,
757
00:19:13.670 --> 00:19:13.940
OK,
758
00:19:14.030 --> 00:19:15.140
landfall is happening.
759
00:19:15.340 --> 00:19:15.500
OK,
760
00:19:15.590 --> 00:19:17.210
that's not what we're looking at right now,
761
00:19:17.350 --> 00:19:19.370
but we should look to prepare
762
00:19:19.630 --> 00:19:22.340
our portfolios so that we don't get stuck
763
00:19:22.590 --> 00:19:23.930
if there is a wave.
764
00:19:25.060 --> 00:19:27.720
So what I'm doing is I'm being a little pickier
765
00:19:28.100 --> 00:19:29.490
about Republican positions.
766
00:19:30.320 --> 00:19:31.670
When I have a position,
767
00:19:31.960 --> 00:19:32.300
um,
768
00:19:32.480 --> 00:19:33.570
if I'm still happy with it,
769
00:19:33.600 --> 00:19:34.050
I keep it,
770
00:19:34.230 --> 00:19:35.220
not selling off
771
00:19:35.360 --> 00:19:35.850
necessarily,
772
00:19:36.080 --> 00:19:36.240
um,
773
00:19:36.360 --> 00:19:37.840
I haven't sold off any of those yet.
774
00:19:38.320 --> 00:19:38.770
However,
775
00:19:39.120 --> 00:19:39.350
uh,
776
00:19:39.480 --> 00:19:42.380
I am holding those positions and not necessarily growing them,
777
00:19:42.840 --> 00:19:46.190
as I wanna see what develops until October 19th.
778
00:19:47.190 --> 00:19:48.130
I am looking
779
00:19:48.470 --> 00:19:49.450
more aggressively
780
00:19:49.590 --> 00:19:51.490
at Democratic opportunities.
781
00:19:51.990 --> 00:19:54.970
States that I looked at as toss-ups or maybe lean Democrat,
782
00:19:55.190 --> 00:19:56.580
I'm starting to like a little bit more.
783
00:19:56.660 --> 00:19:57.970
We'll go through a few of those here
784
00:19:58.120 --> 00:19:58.500
in a minute,
785
00:19:58.590 --> 00:20:00.340
but I mentioned Sherrod Brown recently
786
00:20:00.550 --> 00:20:02.100
on a candidate countdown.
787
00:20:02.310 --> 00:20:03.490
That's one of those where I think,
788
00:20:03.670 --> 00:20:04.180
uh,
789
00:20:04.390 --> 00:20:04.620
you know,
790
00:20:04.750 --> 00:20:06.210
I think there's reason to believe
791
00:20:06.590 --> 00:20:07.740
Republicans are,
792
00:20:07.780 --> 00:20:07.790
uh,
793
00:20:07.830 --> 00:20:08.820
the underdogs there,
794
00:20:09.030 --> 00:20:09.220
um,
795
00:20:09.350 --> 00:20:10.820
and maybe a little bit more than the markets
796
00:20:10.820 --> 00:20:13.170
are even admitting at this point or understanding.
797
00:20:13.470 --> 00:20:13.850
Um,
798
00:20:14.390 --> 00:20:15.820
I'm trying to diversify.
799
00:20:16.430 --> 00:20:18.470
I'm not trying to switch sides.
800
00:20:18.750 --> 00:20:20.420
It doesn't mean that you dump every
801
00:20:20.420 --> 00:20:22.740
Republican position and get every Democratic position.
802
00:20:22.830 --> 00:20:24.620
That would be the equivalent of,
803
00:20:24.790 --> 00:20:24.940
uh,
804
00:20:25.070 --> 00:20:25.220
you know,
805
00:20:25.310 --> 00:20:26.140
going to your windows with,
806
00:20:26.230 --> 00:20:26.510
with,
807
00:20:26.590 --> 00:20:26.950
uh,
808
00:20:27.310 --> 00:20:29.530
with plywood and making sure they're all covered.
809
00:20:29.870 --> 00:20:30.780
I'm not doing that.
810
00:20:31.110 --> 00:20:32.540
But what I am trying to make sure is that I
811
00:20:32.540 --> 00:20:34.580
have a position that can be covered on both sides.
812
00:20:34.690 --> 00:20:36.090
If this winds up happening
813
00:20:36.190 --> 00:20:39.290
and some of my other longer held positions get wiped out,
814
00:20:39.710 --> 00:20:42.250
I wanna make sure I'm getting profit on the other side
815
00:20:42.390 --> 00:20:43.060
to replace them.
816
00:20:43.150 --> 00:20:44.450
So we're working on that right now.
817
00:20:44.900 --> 00:20:46.640
I'm keeping cash available.
818
00:20:47.020 --> 00:20:49.330
Not every dollar that you have in prediction markets needs
819
00:20:49.330 --> 00:20:50.770
to be working for you at the same time.
820
00:20:50.820 --> 00:20:53.620
It's OK to have some cash just hanging out in your account.
821
00:20:53.940 --> 00:20:54.040
Uh,
822
00:20:54.140 --> 00:20:54.450
Calci,
823
00:20:54.580 --> 00:20:54.980
Polymarket,
824
00:20:55.060 --> 00:20:55.960
I think both pay
825
00:20:56.100 --> 00:20:57.210
over 3% interest,
826
00:20:57.380 --> 00:20:59.290
which is probably what you're getting in your bank account anyway.
827
00:20:59.540 --> 00:20:59.960
I should note,
828
00:20:59.980 --> 00:21:01.170
it's not FDIC insured,
829
00:21:01.220 --> 00:21:01.790
so that is,
830
00:21:01.810 --> 00:21:01.820
uh,
831
00:21:02.000 --> 00:21:02.970
important to understand.
832
00:21:03.140 --> 00:21:03.920
But generally speaking,
833
00:21:04.180 --> 00:21:06.200
I'm just getting paid like it's being held in my account,
834
00:21:06.220 --> 00:21:07.740
and if I hold it out of that account and,
835
00:21:07.780 --> 00:21:09.400
and I just have it ready to be,
836
00:21:09.420 --> 00:21:10.530
go into action whenever I need it,
837
00:21:10.580 --> 00:21:11.480
I'm fine with that
838
00:21:11.860 --> 00:21:12.490
for a while.
839
00:21:13.340 --> 00:21:14.240
I'm gonna keep looking
840
00:21:14.420 --> 00:21:15.960
and watching and monitoring,
841
00:21:16.380 --> 00:21:17.680
checking position sizes.
842
00:21:18.830 --> 00:21:19.740
Liking a position,
843
00:21:19.910 --> 00:21:20.820
liking a candidate,
844
00:21:20.870 --> 00:21:21.930
is different
845
00:21:22.510 --> 00:21:22.850
than
846
00:21:23.230 --> 00:21:26.300
saying I like this candidate at this size.
847
00:21:26.550 --> 00:21:32.100
If the biggest thing that you own is a race that's gone negative by a bunch of percent,
848
00:21:32.390 --> 00:21:33.850
and it's going the wrong direction,
849
00:21:34.230 --> 00:21:36.490
it might be worth trimming some of that position.
850
00:21:36.870 --> 00:21:39.250
That might not necessarily mean you've lost faith in that candidate,
851
00:21:39.310 --> 00:21:42.250
and it might mean you take many losses here and there
852
00:21:42.390 --> 00:21:43.580
to accomplish that goal,
853
00:21:43.750 --> 00:21:45.650
but you wanna minimize your exposure
854
00:21:45.910 --> 00:21:46.350
when
855
00:21:46.510 --> 00:21:46.900
needed.
856
00:21:47.370 --> 00:21:47.480
Um,
857
00:21:47.570 --> 00:21:47.640
uh,
858
00:21:47.770 --> 00:21:47.850
you know,
859
00:21:47.890 --> 00:21:48.680
I haven't done that yet,
860
00:21:48.810 --> 00:21:49.320
as I said,
861
00:21:49.450 --> 00:21:49.560
I,
862
00:21:49.730 --> 00:21:52.920
that is something that I will look at doing here in the coming weeks
863
00:21:53.210 --> 00:21:54.560
if this continues to go this way.
864
00:21:54.650 --> 00:21:57.830
And October 19th will be one of those times I'll be looking at that closely,
865
00:21:57.930 --> 00:21:58.970
cause October 19th
866
00:21:59.130 --> 00:22:00.440
is predictable panic day.
867
00:22:02.360 --> 00:22:02.820
Uh
868
00:22:04.070 --> 00:22:04.720
Make sure,
869
00:22:04.830 --> 00:22:05.420
one of the things that,
870
00:22:05.470 --> 00:22:06.720
and this happens all the time,
871
00:22:06.910 --> 00:22:08.250
these markets are correlated,
872
00:22:08.590 --> 00:22:09.020
OK?
873
00:22:09.470 --> 00:22:09.790
If
874
00:22:10.110 --> 00:22:12.130
one Democratic state winds up being better and,
875
00:22:12.150 --> 00:22:12.340
you know,
876
00:22:12.630 --> 00:22:14.160
Democrats outperform themselves there,
877
00:22:14.320 --> 00:22:17.440
usually what that means is they outperform themselves in other places as well.
878
00:22:17.670 --> 00:22:18.620
Same thing with Republicans.
879
00:22:18.710 --> 00:22:20.110
If Republicans wind up doing well,
880
00:22:20.350 --> 00:22:20.510
uh,
881
00:22:20.870 --> 00:22:23.020
you might wind up having a correlated move.
882
00:22:23.110 --> 00:22:24.250
This is the type of thing that,
883
00:22:24.790 --> 00:22:24.980
uh,
884
00:22:25.310 --> 00:22:26.740
Kamala Harris supporters got caught up in.
885
00:22:26.790 --> 00:22:27.070
We're like,
886
00:22:27.090 --> 00:22:27.150
well,
887
00:22:27.190 --> 00:22:28.140
there's 7 swing states,
888
00:22:28.190 --> 00:22:29.220
we're not gonna lose all 7.
889
00:22:29.620 --> 00:22:29.690
Well,
890
00:22:29.740 --> 00:22:30.770
if you're gonna lose one,
891
00:22:31.020 --> 00:22:33.920
the chances are you probably are gonna lose 56 or 7 of them,
892
00:22:34.140 --> 00:22:34.290
right?
893
00:22:34.470 --> 00:22:34.920
Because,
894
00:22:35.300 --> 00:22:35.650
uh,
895
00:22:35.940 --> 00:22:36.090
you know,
896
00:22:36.390 --> 00:22:36.400
the,
897
00:22:36.420 --> 00:22:37.250
these states move together,
898
00:22:37.380 --> 00:22:39.000
the environment is what it is.
899
00:22:39.380 --> 00:22:42.080
Usually there's not an even split 4 to 3.
900
00:22:42.340 --> 00:22:42.530
Um,
901
00:22:42.700 --> 00:22:43.630
so when you're looking at your,
902
00:22:43.860 --> 00:22:44.520
at your markets,
903
00:22:44.710 --> 00:22:45.290
look at it and say,
904
00:22:45.360 --> 00:22:45.450
well,
905
00:22:45.540 --> 00:22:45.910
wait a minute,
906
00:22:46.020 --> 00:22:46.170
if,
907
00:22:46.260 --> 00:22:47.890
if this moves one way,
908
00:22:47.980 --> 00:22:49.520
am I gonna get wiped out on everything
909
00:22:49.700 --> 00:22:50.440
that I have?
910
00:22:51.020 --> 00:22:52.090
I look at that all the time.
911
00:22:52.220 --> 00:22:52.290
Uh,
912
00:22:52.380 --> 00:22:53.090
I'll run that through,
913
00:22:53.300 --> 00:22:53.450
you know,
914
00:22:53.660 --> 00:22:54.170
spreadsheets and stuff.
915
00:22:54.260 --> 00:22:55.930
Maybe we'll create a tool that will help you do this.
916
00:22:56.020 --> 00:22:56.090
I,
917
00:22:56.140 --> 00:22:56.250
I,
918
00:22:56.340 --> 00:22:56.410
I,
919
00:22:56.500 --> 00:22:57.090
I've had one,
920
00:22:57.180 --> 00:22:58.370
I've been playing with one recently.
921
00:22:58.740 --> 00:22:59.010
That I,
922
00:22:59.100 --> 00:22:59.250
you know,
923
00:22:59.340 --> 00:23:01.290
kind of made up on my own for my own stuff.
924
00:23:01.500 --> 00:23:02.260
And I look at it and I say,
925
00:23:02.300 --> 00:23:02.600
well,
926
00:23:02.980 --> 00:23:03.090
you know,
927
00:23:03.140 --> 00:23:07.650
if this is a catastrophic outcome and everything above 70% for Republicans loses,
928
00:23:07.740 --> 00:23:09.200
what does my portfolio look like?
929
00:23:09.700 --> 00:23:10.120
And,
930
00:23:10.340 --> 00:23:10.530
uh,
931
00:23:10.620 --> 00:23:10.890
you know,
932
00:23:11.060 --> 00:23:11.210
if,
933
00:23:11.300 --> 00:23:12.610
if that looks really scary to you,
934
00:23:12.700 --> 00:23:12.810
I've,
935
00:23:12.900 --> 00:23:14.050
I've tried to hedge a lot of that risk,
936
00:23:14.100 --> 00:23:14.970
but if that looks really scary to you,
937
00:23:15.020 --> 00:23:16.010
you might want to look at that.
938
00:23:16.340 --> 00:23:16.570
Um,
939
00:23:16.780 --> 00:23:17.130
there's a bunch,
940
00:23:17.250 --> 00:23:17.970
there's a few other ones here,
941
00:23:18.060 --> 00:23:18.690
but I think that's enough.
942
00:23:18.770 --> 00:23:18.860
I've,
943
00:23:18.980 --> 00:23:19.810
I've hit you with enough stuff.
944
00:23:19.900 --> 00:23:20.330
Let me hit you,
945
00:23:20.500 --> 00:23:20.570
uh,
946
00:23:20.660 --> 00:23:21.940
with a couple more things before we,
947
00:23:21.980 --> 00:23:22.130
uh,
948
00:23:22.260 --> 00:23:22.730
take a break.
949
00:23:23.160 --> 00:23:23.270
Uh,
950
00:23:23.450 --> 00:23:23.830
bring up the,
951
00:23:23.920 --> 00:23:24.030
uh,
952
00:23:24.160 --> 00:23:25.300
the midterms hub here,
953
00:23:25.440 --> 00:23:25.590
uh,
954
00:23:25.760 --> 00:23:27.270
the Calci midterms hub if you can.
955
00:23:27.400 --> 00:23:28.990
This is what the Calci midterms hub looks for.
956
00:23:29.080 --> 00:23:31.060
This is all the prediction market prices for all the states
957
00:23:31.160 --> 00:23:32.670
on a handy dandy map.
958
00:23:32.920 --> 00:23:34.380
They've done a nice job laying that out.
959
00:23:34.560 --> 00:23:34.820
Uh,
960
00:23:35.080 --> 00:23:36.710
thank you to our friends at Calci.
961
00:23:37.200 --> 00:23:37.350
Um,
962
00:23:37.560 --> 00:23:38.230
the Calci midterms hub,
963
00:23:38.360 --> 00:23:38.920
let me see the map here,
964
00:23:39.080 --> 00:23:39.090
uh,
965
00:23:39.200 --> 00:23:39.510
if we could,
966
00:23:39.560 --> 00:23:41.550
64% chance for Democrats to win the Senate.
967
00:23:41.960 --> 00:23:42.940
But if you look at these states,
968
00:23:43.080 --> 00:23:45.220
when I'm saying look for Democratic opportunities,
969
00:23:45.560 --> 00:23:45.710
um,
970
00:23:45.880 --> 00:23:46.740
you'll see a lot of them,
971
00:23:46.760 --> 00:23:47.310
there are none,
972
00:23:47.480 --> 00:23:47.600
right?
973
00:23:47.720 --> 00:23:48.320
New Mexico,
974
00:23:48.480 --> 00:23:49.040
Colorado,
975
00:23:49.240 --> 00:23:49.350
uh,
976
00:23:49.520 --> 00:23:50.240
Oregon,
977
00:23:50.560 --> 00:23:50.750
uh,
978
00:23:50.920 --> 00:23:51.110
you know,
979
00:23:51.320 --> 00:23:52.570
certainly if you look over at,
980
00:23:52.760 --> 00:23:52.950
you know,
981
00:23:53.120 --> 00:23:53.260
uh,
982
00:23:53.410 --> 00:23:54.120
Massachusetts,
983
00:23:54.200 --> 00:23:54.550
Rhode Island,
984
00:23:54.640 --> 00:23:56.110
these are 97 to 98%.
985
00:23:56.200 --> 00:23:58.440
There's almost no gain to be had there,
986
00:23:58.830 --> 00:23:59.980
very little upside.
987
00:24:00.280 --> 00:24:01.230
But you can find a few,
988
00:24:01.360 --> 00:24:02.310
a few other ones.
989
00:24:02.400 --> 00:24:02.980
Let's look at,
990
00:24:03.400 --> 00:24:04.670
give me Michigan here for a second,
991
00:24:04.770 --> 00:24:04.990
Adam,
992
00:24:05.080 --> 00:24:05.560
if you have it.
993
00:24:05.950 --> 00:24:06.530
Michigan
994
00:24:06.630 --> 00:24:07.410
has uh
995
00:24:07.530 --> 00:24:08.900
El Sayed at 73%,
996
00:24:09.060 --> 00:24:10.490
Mike Rogers at 27%.
997
00:24:10.710 --> 00:24:11.410
In my head,
998
00:24:11.430 --> 00:24:13.180
that race is kind of a toss-up.
999
00:24:13.630 --> 00:24:15.180
I think if I had to,
1000
00:24:15.310 --> 00:24:15.880
gun to my head,
1001
00:24:16.030 --> 00:24:16.530
pick
1002
00:24:16.840 --> 00:24:18.460
a particular candidate there,
1003
00:24:18.510 --> 00:24:20.740
I'd probably lean Democrat given this,
1004
00:24:20.830 --> 00:24:21.170
um,
1005
00:24:21.470 --> 00:24:22.940
this climate that we're in.
1006
00:24:23.740 --> 00:24:24.400
But again,
1007
00:24:24.700 --> 00:24:27.850
27 cents of profit on a 73% investment.
1008
00:24:27.920 --> 00:24:29.150
You're about a third,
1009
00:24:29.300 --> 00:24:30.370
a third profit there.
1010
00:24:30.460 --> 00:24:31.210
It's a nice number.
1011
00:24:31.300 --> 00:24:32.890
There's still plenty of room for that to run.
1012
00:24:32.980 --> 00:24:35.630
If you're looking to protect against the Democratic wave,
1013
00:24:35.820 --> 00:24:36.510
it's a state
1014
00:24:36.700 --> 00:24:37.540
worth considering.
1015
00:24:37.700 --> 00:24:38.850
Let's look at Ohio.
1016
00:24:39.060 --> 00:24:39.970
Ohio is the same thing.
1017
00:24:40.050 --> 00:24:41.010
I've mentioned this earlier.
1018
00:24:41.220 --> 00:24:42.530
Sherrod Brown's at 60%.
1019
00:24:42.580 --> 00:24:43.560
It's up from
1020
00:24:43.660 --> 00:24:44.110
52%,
1021
00:24:44.180 --> 00:24:44.590
53%,
1022
00:24:44.660 --> 00:24:46.600
54% where I was buying it initially.
1023
00:24:46.900 --> 00:24:46.950
Uh,
1024
00:24:47.020 --> 00:24:47.690
it is rising.
1025
00:24:47.820 --> 00:24:49.250
Everything's rising for the Democrats right now.
1026
00:24:49.670 --> 00:24:49.900
Um,
1027
00:24:50.070 --> 00:24:50.220
you know,
1028
00:24:50.350 --> 00:24:50.950
so it might be,
1029
00:24:51.070 --> 00:24:52.690
and we may see a peak here and it might turn around.
1030
00:24:52.790 --> 00:24:55.500
That's why we're waiting till October 19th to panic on these races.
1031
00:24:55.590 --> 00:24:56.790
But Sherrod Brown is one that I think,
1032
00:24:56.870 --> 00:24:57.490
I actually think
1033
00:24:57.620 --> 00:24:58.740
probably will win,
1034
00:24:59.030 --> 00:24:59.160
um,
1035
00:24:59.310 --> 00:25:00.860
and he is a 60/40 favorite.
1036
00:25:01.070 --> 00:25:01.980
Tons of room to run there.
1037
00:25:02.030 --> 00:25:02.180
I mean,
1038
00:25:02.230 --> 00:25:02.530
that's
1039
00:25:02.780 --> 00:25:04.530
a 67% profit
1040
00:25:04.710 --> 00:25:07.060
here in the next six weeks if you believe in that one.
1041
00:25:07.150 --> 00:25:08.130
Another one I'll give you,
1042
00:25:08.420 --> 00:25:08.500
again,
1043
00:25:08.830 --> 00:25:10.220
Democratic opportunity just in the Senate,
1044
00:25:10.270 --> 00:25:11.930
that's all we're looking at is New Hampshire.
1045
00:25:12.230 --> 00:25:12.820
New Hampshire,
1046
00:25:13.070 --> 00:25:14.170
some of the polling is close
1047
00:25:14.310 --> 00:25:14.690
here.
1048
00:25:15.070 --> 00:25:17.190
And John Sununu is a well-known guy in the state.
1049
00:25:17.470 --> 00:25:17.540
Uh,
1050
00:25:17.710 --> 00:25:19.430
this is why you're getting value,
1051
00:25:19.500 --> 00:25:20.860
like 84%
1052
00:25:20.990 --> 00:25:24.410
in a state that leans probably to the blue side anyway.
1053
00:25:24.720 --> 00:25:24.820
Uh,
1054
00:25:24.950 --> 00:25:25.580
it's purplish,
1055
00:25:25.660 --> 00:25:27.040
but it leans to the blue side
1056
00:25:27.230 --> 00:25:28.780
and in a very blue environment,
1057
00:25:28.950 --> 00:25:30.780
if you're looking for something that would offset.
1058
00:25:30.870 --> 00:25:30.980
Now,
1059
00:25:31.190 --> 00:25:31.340
look,
1060
00:25:31.430 --> 00:25:33.450
if this comes back and Sununu wins,
1061
00:25:33.630 --> 00:25:36.780
your other Republican positions are very likely to do
1062
00:25:36.780 --> 00:25:38.850
much better than you're hoping right now anyway.
1063
00:25:39.110 --> 00:25:39.520
So,
1064
00:25:39.750 --> 00:25:40.300
it doesn't mean you,
1065
00:25:40.430 --> 00:25:42.660
you dump all your money into Chris Pappas,
1066
00:25:42.950 --> 00:25:44.390
but it is something to consider.
1067
00:25:44.900 --> 00:25:45.040
Uh,
1068
00:25:45.250 --> 00:25:45.490
look,
1069
00:25:45.610 --> 00:25:46.750
this is a weird time.
1070
00:25:47.370 --> 00:25:49.240
If you're looking at just election outcomes,
1071
00:25:49.610 --> 00:25:50.350
the time is,
1072
00:25:50.610 --> 00:25:51.330
it is the,
1073
00:25:51.410 --> 00:25:52.800
the message is be active,
1074
00:25:53.250 --> 00:25:53.960
do what you,
1075
00:25:54.170 --> 00:25:54.360
you know,
1076
00:25:54.530 --> 00:25:55.120
certainly vote,
1077
00:25:55.330 --> 00:25:58.640
but go out there and do the things that you think can move the needle any way you can
1078
00:25:59.040 --> 00:25:59.800
because your side,
1079
00:25:59.850 --> 00:26:00.040
if you,
1080
00:26:00.130 --> 00:26:00.280
if you,
1081
00:26:00.370 --> 00:26:01.550
if you care about your side winning,
1082
00:26:01.690 --> 00:26:02.780
it is vitally important.
1083
00:26:02.970 --> 00:26:03.760
This isn't.
1084
00:26:04.720 --> 00:26:05.670
I guess what I'm saying is
1085
00:26:06.080 --> 00:26:07.500
there's a lot of mainstream media
1086
00:26:07.760 --> 00:26:08.150
hype.
1087
00:26:09.050 --> 00:26:09.730
And,
1088
00:26:09.810 --> 00:26:10.480
uh,
1089
00:26:10.610 --> 00:26:11.960
a lot of times it's not real.
1090
00:26:12.410 --> 00:26:15.390
This is a real threat if you are a conservative or a Republican
1091
00:26:15.570 --> 00:26:16.350
to lose
1092
00:26:16.850 --> 00:26:19.940
really the rest of the Trump presidency here because once,
1093
00:26:20.130 --> 00:26:20.320
you know,
1094
00:26:20.410 --> 00:26:21.590
once these guys go down,
1095
00:26:21.740 --> 00:26:21.840
uh,
1096
00:26:21.930 --> 00:26:22.120
you know,
1097
00:26:22.170 --> 00:26:22.360
if you,
1098
00:26:22.410 --> 00:26:23.420
if you lose even the House,
1099
00:26:23.650 --> 00:26:24.720
it's gonna be tough to pass anything.
1100
00:26:24.770 --> 00:26:25.400
You lose the Senate,
1101
00:26:25.450 --> 00:26:26.270
you're talking about
1102
00:26:26.490 --> 00:26:28.120
Supreme Court justices and so many other things
1103
00:26:28.120 --> 00:26:29.160
that we've talked about a million times,
1104
00:26:29.250 --> 00:26:29.870
so that's that.
1105
00:26:30.250 --> 00:26:30.800
Secondarily,
1106
00:26:30.890 --> 00:26:32.110
if you're in prediction markets,
1107
00:26:32.570 --> 00:26:33.170
think about that,
1108
00:26:33.200 --> 00:26:33.440
that,
1109
00:26:33.490 --> 00:26:35.870
that investment advice you've heard a million times about,
1110
00:26:36.170 --> 00:26:38.800
about diversifying and understanding other opportunities.
1111
00:26:39.260 --> 00:26:40.390
It is important.
1112
00:26:40.760 --> 00:26:41.070
Take,
1113
00:26:41.440 --> 00:26:43.170
look back at those steps that we just went through.
1114
00:26:43.520 --> 00:26:43.990
Take a moment,
1115
00:26:44.160 --> 00:26:45.390
look at your portfolio,
1116
00:26:45.550 --> 00:26:46.180
don't freak out.
1117
00:26:46.240 --> 00:26:46.720
You got plenty of,
1118
00:26:46.880 --> 00:26:49.030
you got till October 9th before predictable panic day.
1119
00:26:49.120 --> 00:26:49.790
Don't freak out.
1120
00:26:49.960 --> 00:26:51.010
Just look at those things,
1121
00:26:51.240 --> 00:26:52.550
look for those opportunities,
1122
00:26:52.720 --> 00:26:56.390
and take a time to maybe rebalance or at least understand what your balance is,
1123
00:26:56.470 --> 00:26:58.660
cause a lot of times you get stuff in there and you don't even realize.
1124
00:26:59.040 --> 00:27:00.100
Take that time now.
1125
00:27:00.360 --> 00:27:01.270
Things are gonna change,
1126
00:27:01.430 --> 00:27:02.070
things will move,
1127
00:27:02.240 --> 00:27:03.540
but you still have time
1128
00:27:03.880 --> 00:27:05.100
before it is time
1129
00:27:05.240 --> 00:27:05.770
to hit
1130
00:27:05.880 --> 00:27:06.710
the panic button.
1131
00:27:26.620 --> 00:27:31.280
We are 41 days away from the election and we do a different candidate
1132
00:27:31.280 --> 00:27:34.950
in a different race every day that we like that we think is a uh
1133
00:27:35.080 --> 00:27:38.920
worth your consideration for potential prediction market investment,
1134
00:27:39.270 --> 00:27:39.540
uh,
1135
00:27:39.670 --> 00:27:40.290
and
1136
00:27:40.470 --> 00:27:41.650
kind of building on the theme today.
1137
00:27:41.670 --> 00:27:41.780
I,
1138
00:27:41.870 --> 00:27:46.010
I mentioned look for um some Democrats that you think might have
1139
00:27:46.350 --> 00:27:48.350
uh a little bit of uh uh
1140
00:27:48.550 --> 00:27:49.340
of upside
1141
00:27:49.750 --> 00:27:53.330
to begin taking a position on to to to measure it as we go.
1142
00:27:53.720 --> 00:27:53.990
Um,
1143
00:27:54.120 --> 00:27:55.590
and that's one of the ways that I'm kind of
1144
00:27:55.590 --> 00:27:58.190
trying to prepare myself for what might happen here in,
1145
00:27:58.280 --> 00:27:59.140
in a few weeks.
1146
00:27:59.680 --> 00:27:59.790
Uh,
1147
00:27:59.960 --> 00:28:00.750
so our candidate today,
1148
00:28:00.810 --> 00:28:03.710
41 days until the election,
1149
00:28:04.100 --> 00:28:04.420
and,
1150
00:28:04.440 --> 00:28:04.550
uh,
1151
00:28:04.640 --> 00:28:07.260
our candidate today comes from the.
1152
00:28:08.320 --> 00:28:08.990
From the north,
1153
00:28:09.160 --> 00:28:09.510
yes,
1154
00:28:09.720 --> 00:28:11.180
it is Mary Peltola.
1155
00:28:11.400 --> 00:28:13.450
She is a Democrat from Alaska
1156
00:28:14.240 --> 00:28:16.510
running for Senate against Dan Sullivan,
1157
00:28:16.600 --> 00:28:17.420
the Republican
1158
00:28:17.880 --> 00:28:18.180
there.
1159
00:28:18.200 --> 00:28:20.030
Now the candidate countdown does not mean that I
1160
00:28:20.030 --> 00:28:22.190
like the candidate or want the candidate to win.
1161
00:28:22.320 --> 00:28:23.980
That is not what we do here.
1162
00:28:24.320 --> 00:28:24.550
Um,
1163
00:28:24.680 --> 00:28:26.210
I will tell you
1164
00:28:26.440 --> 00:28:27.310
what my preference is,
1165
00:28:27.360 --> 00:28:30.830
and I will say my preference is certainly would be Republican control of the Senate.
1166
00:28:31.040 --> 00:28:34.070
Mary Peltola though is a pretty good candidate in Alaska.
1167
00:28:34.490 --> 00:28:36.360
And uh this is a real danger.
1168
00:28:36.400 --> 00:28:37.470
You might say Alaska.
1169
00:28:37.920 --> 00:28:38.190
Come on,
1170
00:28:38.240 --> 00:28:38.830
that's crazy.
1171
00:28:39.080 --> 00:28:41.430
Republicans always win in Alaska,
1172
00:28:41.480 --> 00:28:41.790
right?
1173
00:28:42.990 --> 00:28:43.080
Well,
1174
00:28:43.190 --> 00:28:43.940
recently I've done well,
1175
00:28:44.110 --> 00:28:45.010
particularly in presidential,
1176
00:28:45.190 --> 00:28:45.340
uh,
1177
00:28:45.550 --> 00:28:46.030
elections.
1178
00:28:46.230 --> 00:28:46.300
Uh,
1179
00:28:46.390 --> 00:28:47.620
we're gonna get into the details here in a minute,
1180
00:28:47.670 --> 00:28:49.180
but I wanna show you the polling as of late,
1181
00:28:49.230 --> 00:28:50.100
and you might look at this and say,
1182
00:28:50.190 --> 00:28:50.300
OK,
1183
00:28:50.390 --> 00:28:50.540
well,
1184
00:28:50.620 --> 00:28:51.970
there's some good polling here for
1185
00:28:52.150 --> 00:28:52.500
Sullivan,
1186
00:28:52.520 --> 00:28:52.940
and that's true.
1187
00:28:53.030 --> 00:28:53.770
This is not a,
1188
00:28:54.030 --> 00:28:54.080
uh,
1189
00:28:54.190 --> 00:28:54.860
a definite,
1190
00:28:54.920 --> 00:28:55.730
I would say,
1191
00:28:56.030 --> 00:28:56.320
um,
1192
00:28:56.510 --> 00:28:57.010
as far as,
1193
00:28:57.110 --> 00:28:57.180
uh,
1194
00:28:57.350 --> 00:28:57.510
I mean,
1195
00:28:57.550 --> 00:28:59.220
Dan Sullivan has a shot to win this race.
1196
00:29:00.360 --> 00:29:01.540
There's a lot of asterisks by it.
1197
00:29:01.560 --> 00:29:02.390
I'm gonna go through this in a minute.
1198
00:29:02.480 --> 00:29:03.150
Here's the polling.
1199
00:29:03.220 --> 00:29:03.350
Um,
1200
00:29:03.480 --> 00:29:06.770
most recent poll from coefficient does have Sullivan up by 2.
1201
00:29:07.460 --> 00:29:07.590
you,
1202
00:29:07.680 --> 00:29:08.690
you see 3 polls in a row,
1203
00:29:09.280 --> 00:29:10.390
the Times broke them out that way,
1204
00:29:10.480 --> 00:29:11.310
but it's the same poll,
1205
00:29:11.410 --> 00:29:11.510
uh,
1206
00:29:11.680 --> 00:29:12.310
coefficient,
1207
00:29:12.570 --> 00:29:12.580
uh,
1208
00:29:12.680 --> 00:29:13.150
23,
1209
00:29:13.200 --> 00:29:13.690
and 5,
1210
00:29:13.880 --> 00:29:14.950
depending on how they break it,
1211
00:29:15.040 --> 00:29:15.110
uh,
1212
00:29:15.280 --> 00:29:15.690
out.
1213
00:29:15.880 --> 00:29:18.440
Alaska Survey Research had Peltola up by 5.
1214
00:29:18.920 --> 00:29:19.750
Fabrizio,
1215
00:29:19.890 --> 00:29:19.900
uh,
1216
00:29:20.080 --> 00:29:20.270
had,
1217
00:29:20.440 --> 00:29:20.550
uh,
1218
00:29:20.720 --> 00:29:22.310
Peltola up by 7.
1219
00:29:22.880 --> 00:29:23.380
And then,
1220
00:29:23.520 --> 00:29:23.630
uh,
1221
00:29:23.760 --> 00:29:25.940
Alaska survey research previous poll
1222
00:29:26.140 --> 00:29:27.430
before that going back to,
1223
00:29:27.480 --> 00:29:27.600
uh,
1224
00:29:27.640 --> 00:29:28.440
late August
1225
00:29:28.680 --> 00:29:30.070
had Peltola up by 1.
1226
00:29:30.240 --> 00:29:32.750
The final round thing is key to this discussion here
1227
00:29:32.750 --> 00:29:33.790
and we're gonna get to that here in a second,
1228
00:29:33.880 --> 00:29:34.060
but
1229
00:29:35.100 --> 00:29:36.770
If you don't know who Mary Paltola is,
1230
00:29:37.030 --> 00:29:37.600
she is,
1231
00:29:37.740 --> 00:29:38.090
um,
1232
00:29:38.300 --> 00:29:41.820
a known figure in the state and has already won statewide
1233
00:29:42.020 --> 00:29:42.920
in Alaska.
1234
00:29:43.300 --> 00:29:44.410
Not always easy to do,
1235
00:29:44.500 --> 00:29:45.690
and that's because of their house seat,
1236
00:29:45.790 --> 00:29:46.580
their at-large
1237
00:29:46.680 --> 00:29:47.170
House seat.
1238
00:29:47.220 --> 00:29:47.850
They've got one,
1239
00:29:47.970 --> 00:29:48.930
so it's the whole state,
1240
00:29:49.180 --> 00:29:49.250
uh,
1241
00:29:49.380 --> 00:29:49.890
and she won,
1242
00:29:50.020 --> 00:29:50.290
she won,
1243
00:29:50.380 --> 00:29:50.410
uh,
1244
00:29:50.540 --> 00:29:50.710
both,
1245
00:29:50.820 --> 00:29:50.830
uh,
1246
00:29:50.970 --> 00:29:51.090
uh,
1247
00:29:51.120 --> 00:29:51.620
uh,
1248
00:29:51.680 --> 00:29:51.700
uh,
1249
00:29:51.740 --> 00:29:53.000
elections in 2022.
1250
00:29:53.440 --> 00:29:54.710
She won the regular election,
1251
00:29:54.800 --> 00:29:56.470
so she won a special election,
1252
00:29:56.560 --> 00:29:57.890
and then she won the regular election.
1253
00:29:57.920 --> 00:29:59.770
In the regular election in 2022,
1254
00:30:00.040 --> 00:30:02.250
she won with 54.9%
1255
00:30:02.440 --> 00:30:03.570
of the vote.
1256
00:30:03.840 --> 00:30:03.950
Uh,
1257
00:30:04.160 --> 00:30:06.830
she has consistently in all of her races,
1258
00:30:06.960 --> 00:30:08.830
even the one she lost in 2024.
1259
00:30:09.440 --> 00:30:13.670
Has outperformed uh the Democratic Party by a wide margin.
1260
00:30:13.880 --> 00:30:15.130
This is the type of candidate
1261
00:30:15.240 --> 00:30:17.300
that Democrats love in these elections
1262
00:30:17.620 --> 00:30:18.420
because they're not,
1263
00:30:18.680 --> 00:30:19.870
it's not a run of the mill,
1264
00:30:20.000 --> 00:30:20.260
hey,
1265
00:30:20.280 --> 00:30:21.820
you're running just like whatever the
1266
00:30:22.120 --> 00:30:23.130
whatever the climate is.
1267
00:30:23.280 --> 00:30:25.390
She's outperformed the climate every single time.
1268
00:30:26.000 --> 00:30:26.860
That she has run
1269
00:30:27.060 --> 00:30:27.750
now in 2024,
1270
00:30:27.800 --> 00:30:29.140
the climate was very Republican,
1271
00:30:29.320 --> 00:30:30.620
or at least pretty Republican,
1272
00:30:30.800 --> 00:30:32.290
and it wasn't enough for her to hold on,
1273
00:30:32.400 --> 00:30:32.660
but
1274
00:30:32.840 --> 00:30:34.100
she in 2024,
1275
00:30:34.360 --> 00:30:34.470
uh,
1276
00:30:34.680 --> 00:30:36.380
Trump won by 13 points.
1277
00:30:36.680 --> 00:30:39.570
Peltola only lost by 2.6,
1278
00:30:40.000 --> 00:30:40.420
so
1279
00:30:40.800 --> 00:30:42.800
outperforming the Democratic Party
1280
00:30:43.000 --> 00:30:45.780
in a state that's not necessarily wonderful for Democrats.
1281
00:30:46.080 --> 00:30:46.460
Um,
1282
00:30:46.800 --> 00:30:46.950
the,
1283
00:30:47.040 --> 00:30:50.830
the breakdown of Alaska as far as its voters go is really interesting.
1284
00:30:51.200 --> 00:30:51.700
It is,
1285
00:30:51.920 --> 00:30:52.330
uh,
1286
00:30:52.600 --> 00:30:53.470
it's unlike a,
1287
00:30:54.040 --> 00:30:54.470
of course,
1288
00:30:54.560 --> 00:30:55.060
right.
1289
00:30:56.120 --> 00:30:56.270
You know,
1290
00:30:56.360 --> 00:30:57.750
Alaska's different than the other states.
1291
00:30:57.840 --> 00:30:57.910
Yeah,
1292
00:30:58.040 --> 00:30:58.420
I know,
1293
00:30:58.680 --> 00:30:58.950
Stu.
1294
00:30:59.040 --> 00:30:59.580
I got it.
1295
00:30:59.680 --> 00:30:59.830
I mean,
1296
00:30:59.920 --> 00:31:00.350
Alaska,
1297
00:31:00.400 --> 00:31:00.630
it's,
1298
00:31:00.650 --> 00:31:00.750
uh,
1299
00:31:00.840 --> 00:31:01.390
a really big one.
1300
00:31:01.440 --> 00:31:02.450
It's the biggest one we got.
1301
00:31:02.600 --> 00:31:03.030
It's in,
1302
00:31:03.150 --> 00:31:03.630
it's kind of,
1303
00:31:03.760 --> 00:31:05.990
actually kind of seems like it's connected to Canada.
1304
00:31:06.200 --> 00:31:07.180
It's in the middle of nowhere.
1305
00:31:07.200 --> 00:31:08.060
It's really cold.
1306
00:31:08.200 --> 00:31:09.990
There's not roads to most of the places.
1307
00:31:10.080 --> 00:31:10.840
That's Alaska.
1308
00:31:10.880 --> 00:31:11.620
You know that part.
1309
00:31:12.420 --> 00:31:14.290
But the political breakdown is interesting.
1310
00:31:14.460 --> 00:31:16.100
Where most states you have,
1311
00:31:16.300 --> 00:31:16.770
I don't know,
1312
00:31:17.100 --> 00:31:20.370
roughly a third maybe of each between Republicans,
1313
00:31:20.620 --> 00:31:20.820
Democrats,
1314
00:31:20.860 --> 00:31:21.600
and Independents,
1315
00:31:21.700 --> 00:31:22.960
it's not really like that
1316
00:31:23.180 --> 00:31:23.810
in Alaska.
1317
00:31:24.100 --> 00:31:27.240
Only about 24% of registered voters have registered
1318
00:31:27.520 --> 00:31:28.480
between Republicans
1319
00:31:28.620 --> 00:31:29.480
or Democrats.
1320
00:31:29.780 --> 00:31:31.210
That breaks down in favor,
1321
00:31:31.420 --> 00:31:31.570
uh,
1322
00:31:31.740 --> 00:31:32.060
uh,
1323
00:31:32.140 --> 00:31:32.810
uh,
1324
00:31:33.220 --> 00:31:33.490
excuse me,
1325
00:31:33.530 --> 00:31:34.410
it's 36% total,
1326
00:31:34.500 --> 00:31:35.510
24% Republicans,
1327
00:31:35.540 --> 00:31:35.970
12%.
1328
00:31:36.270 --> 00:31:36.400
Democrats,
1329
00:31:36.490 --> 00:31:36.750
so
1330
00:31:37.000 --> 00:31:39.800
it is a big advantage for Republicans,
1331
00:31:39.960 --> 00:31:40.520
but as you know,
1332
00:31:40.650 --> 00:31:42.550
there's a lot of people I'm not talking about there.
1333
00:31:42.810 --> 00:31:46.110
Over 60% of people are either unaffiliated
1334
00:31:46.210 --> 00:31:47.280
or independent
1335
00:31:47.490 --> 00:31:48.240
in the state.
1336
00:31:48.450 --> 00:31:50.690
So you have a massively independent electorate
1337
00:31:50.840 --> 00:31:53.000
that does tend to lean to the right,
1338
00:31:53.210 --> 00:31:54.520
but not overwhelmingly.
1339
00:31:54.610 --> 00:31:55.000
These are other,
1340
00:31:55.090 --> 00:31:57.780
there are other states where there's a much better case for just general
1341
00:31:58.000 --> 00:31:59.970
red winning no matter what's going on.
1342
00:32:00.430 --> 00:32:00.830
Um,
1343
00:32:01.250 --> 00:32:02.170
Dan Sullivan
1344
00:32:02.310 --> 00:32:03.690
is a senator currently.
1345
00:32:03.930 --> 00:32:04.800
His approval rating.
1346
00:32:05.520 --> 00:32:06.340
Isn't great.
1347
00:32:06.800 --> 00:32:08.250
It's about 38%.
1348
00:32:08.420 --> 00:32:08.510
Now,
1349
00:32:08.560 --> 00:32:10.430
that's a little bit better than some of the polling
1350
00:32:10.430 --> 00:32:12.360
we told you about earlier on in the show,
1351
00:32:12.680 --> 00:32:14.070
but 38% isn't great.
1352
00:32:14.150 --> 00:32:15.340
He's in the bottom,
1353
00:32:16.200 --> 00:32:17.190
I'd say quintile,
1354
00:32:17.360 --> 00:32:18.140
bottom fifth
1355
00:32:18.400 --> 00:32:18.710
of,
1356
00:32:18.880 --> 00:32:19.110
uh,
1357
00:32:19.320 --> 00:32:20.990
senators as far as approval rating goes,
1358
00:32:21.080 --> 00:32:22.070
not toward the top.
1359
00:32:22.440 --> 00:32:22.590
Um,
1360
00:32:22.720 --> 00:32:24.200
he's down there toward the bottom,
1361
00:32:24.320 --> 00:32:25.150
not at the bottom.
1362
00:32:25.280 --> 00:32:27.600
He's not the worst approval ratings in America,
1363
00:32:27.920 --> 00:32:28.870
but he's toward the bottom,
1364
00:32:29.000 --> 00:32:29.430
bottom third,
1365
00:32:29.560 --> 00:32:30.080
bottom fourth,
1366
00:32:30.240 --> 00:32:30.680
bottom fifth,
1367
00:32:30.760 --> 00:32:31.270
somewhere in there.
1368
00:32:32.240 --> 00:32:32.580
Um,
1369
00:32:32.710 --> 00:32:33.580
so that's not great.
1370
00:32:33.710 --> 00:32:34.900
47% disapprove,
1371
00:32:34.990 --> 00:32:36.160
so he's a -9
1372
00:32:36.510 --> 00:32:37.450
on that one.
1373
00:32:38.630 --> 00:32:39.130
he is,
1374
00:32:39.240 --> 00:32:39.640
uh,
1375
00:32:39.830 --> 00:32:40.340
you know,
1376
00:32:40.630 --> 00:32:40.700
again,
1377
00:32:40.750 --> 00:32:42.650
that doesn't mean that he can't win in Alaska,
1378
00:32:43.190 --> 00:32:45.140
but he doesn't have like a super clear path.
1379
00:32:45.270 --> 00:32:47.220
Like it's not like easy for Dan Sullivan,
1380
00:32:47.310 --> 00:32:47.340
uh,
1381
00:32:47.510 --> 00:32:47.990
to win.
1382
00:32:48.390 --> 00:32:48.500
Uh,
1383
00:32:48.590 --> 00:32:49.700
the polling has been very close,
1384
00:32:49.750 --> 00:32:50.850
as we talked about.
1385
00:32:50.990 --> 00:32:52.180
Peltola is a,
1386
00:32:52.310 --> 00:32:54.370
a good crossover candidate there.
1387
00:32:54.560 --> 00:32:55.540
She won in 2022,
1388
00:32:55.630 --> 00:32:56.840
she won in 2024,
1389
00:32:57.030 --> 00:32:57.700
and she's raising,
1390
00:32:57.790 --> 00:32:58.620
raising a lot of money.
1391
00:32:58.710 --> 00:33:00.820
She's raised more overall than Sullivan.
1392
00:33:01.130 --> 00:33:01.310
Um,
1393
00:33:01.520 --> 00:33:04.630
Sullivan has been a little bit more frugal with his spending so far,
1394
00:33:04.760 --> 00:33:06.510
so he has a little bit more cash on hand,
1395
00:33:06.720 --> 00:33:08.230
but this isn't one of those races where you're gonna see,
1396
00:33:08.330 --> 00:33:08.630
oh gosh,
1397
00:33:08.680 --> 00:33:09.790
it's a Republican state,
1398
00:33:09.920 --> 00:33:11.510
the Republican candidate gonna outspend the,
1399
00:33:11.640 --> 00:33:11.750
uh,
1400
00:33:12.160 --> 00:33:12.990
Democrat by 10 to 1.
1401
00:33:13.240 --> 00:33:14.180
That's not happening here.
1402
00:33:14.320 --> 00:33:16.420
She'll probably wind up spending more than he does,
1403
00:33:16.800 --> 00:33:17.270
um.
1404
00:33:18.820 --> 00:33:20.220
If you wanna make the case for Sullivan,
1405
00:33:20.500 --> 00:33:21.970
let's make a case against our position as
1406
00:33:21.970 --> 00:33:23.900
we'd like to do here on Candidate Countdown.
1407
00:33:24.420 --> 00:33:25.530
Alaska is still a red state,
1408
00:33:25.700 --> 00:33:27.110
fundamentally leans to the right.
1409
00:33:27.340 --> 00:33:27.410
Uh,
1410
00:33:27.540 --> 00:33:29.650
Sullivan has already won statewide twice.
1411
00:33:29.820 --> 00:33:31.330
Although I will say in 2014,
1412
00:33:31.460 --> 00:33:32.720
which was a good year
1413
00:33:32.900 --> 00:33:33.920
for Republicans,
1414
00:33:34.420 --> 00:33:35.450
he barely won,
1415
00:33:35.700 --> 00:33:35.730
uh,
1416
00:33:35.900 --> 00:33:36.810
by about 2 points.
1417
00:33:36.940 --> 00:33:39.060
2020 won easily by about 13.
1418
00:33:39.540 --> 00:33:40.640
Republicans do have that,
1419
00:33:40.740 --> 00:33:40.810
uh,
1420
00:33:41.100 --> 00:33:42.010
registration advantage.
1421
00:33:42.100 --> 00:33:43.920
It's about 70,000 votes.
1422
00:33:44.420 --> 00:33:45.890
So 70,000 votes is,
1423
00:33:45.940 --> 00:33:46.240
is a,
1424
00:33:46.260 --> 00:33:46.810
is a note.
1425
00:33:46.860 --> 00:33:47.170
It's a,
1426
00:33:47.220 --> 00:33:47.410
it's,
1427
00:33:47.460 --> 00:33:48.280
it's serious,
1428
00:33:48.380 --> 00:33:49.660
but it's not necessarily,
1429
00:33:49.940 --> 00:33:50.400
um,
1430
00:33:50.620 --> 00:33:53.180
a massive number that you might see in another state
1431
00:33:53.410 --> 00:33:56.030
with that type of margin of kind of 2 to 1.
1432
00:33:56.350 --> 00:33:56.650
Um,
1433
00:33:56.860 --> 00:33:58.160
recent polling has Sullivan ahead,
1434
00:33:58.180 --> 00:33:58.780
as I mentioned,
1435
00:33:58.930 --> 00:33:59.780
some of it does.
1436
00:34:00.100 --> 00:34:00.560
Sullivan,
1437
00:34:00.620 --> 00:34:00.710
uh,
1438
00:34:00.860 --> 00:34:02.250
is financially strong,
1439
00:34:02.820 --> 00:34:04.040
older voters do well,
1440
00:34:04.180 --> 00:34:04.390
uh,
1441
00:34:04.580 --> 00:34:05.370
with Sullivan.
1442
00:34:05.500 --> 00:34:05.560
Uh,
1443
00:34:05.820 --> 00:34:08.370
voters over 50 do lean toward Sullivan,
1444
00:34:08.460 --> 00:34:09.610
so that's a positive.
1445
00:34:10.090 --> 00:34:10.440
Um,
1446
00:34:10.610 --> 00:34:10.790
and,
1447
00:34:10.889 --> 00:34:11.040
uh,
1448
00:34:11.290 --> 00:34:11.440
you know,
1449
00:34:11.500 --> 00:34:12.310
Peltola
1450
00:34:12.489 --> 00:34:13.840
did lose in 2024.
1451
00:34:13.929 --> 00:34:15.020
She can lose in the state,
1452
00:34:15.250 --> 00:34:16.800
although it was a much more Republican year.
1453
00:34:16.900 --> 00:34:18.639
One other nugget I want to give you here on this race,
1454
00:34:18.929 --> 00:34:19.469
or two more.
1455
00:34:19.850 --> 00:34:20.679
One is the system.
1456
00:34:21.500 --> 00:34:23.850
The system is a ranked choice voting system.
1457
00:34:24.610 --> 00:34:26.040
It's a very weird system.
1458
00:34:26.210 --> 00:34:27.280
If you're not from Alaska,
1459
00:34:27.330 --> 00:34:29.360
you probably don't understand it or know about it.
1460
00:34:29.449 --> 00:34:31.750
But basically what they did in the primary was pick
1461
00:34:31.969 --> 00:34:34.630
not the best Republican and Democrat to run against each other,
1462
00:34:34.830 --> 00:34:36.969
but the top 4 candidates of any party.
1463
00:34:37.330 --> 00:34:38.440
And they have the top 4 candidates,
1464
00:34:38.530 --> 00:34:40.159
so 4 candidates will be on the ballot,
1465
00:34:40.370 --> 00:34:42.810
and they will do it in a ranked choice voting style.
1466
00:34:43.250 --> 00:34:44.880
What that means is you can say,
1467
00:34:45.010 --> 00:34:45.120
well,
1468
00:34:45.170 --> 00:34:45.409
I think,
1469
00:34:45.530 --> 00:34:45.639
uh,
1470
00:34:45.770 --> 00:34:46.080
number 1,
1471
00:34:46.170 --> 00:34:46.719
Dan Sullivan,
1472
00:34:46.830 --> 00:34:47.199
#2,
1473
00:34:47.330 --> 00:34:48.050
Mary Peltola,
1474
00:34:48.070 --> 00:34:48.580
3,
1475
00:34:48.690 --> 00:34:49.620
and go through the list.
1476
00:34:49.870 --> 00:34:50.880
You rank them like that.
1477
00:34:51.170 --> 00:34:53.400
When the last place candidate that has no chance of winning.
1478
00:34:53.989 --> 00:34:54.100
Uh,
1479
00:34:54.389 --> 00:34:57.620
is officially eliminated and has no chance to get to 50%.
1480
00:34:57.870 --> 00:34:58.410
They are
1481
00:34:58.550 --> 00:34:59.040
eliminated.
1482
00:34:59.110 --> 00:35:01.070
They get all their votes get redistributed.
1483
00:35:01.190 --> 00:35:02.050
So if you,
1484
00:35:02.310 --> 00:35:02.930
if you had,
1485
00:35:03.030 --> 00:35:03.490
um,
1486
00:35:03.830 --> 00:35:03.980
you know,
1487
00:35:04.030 --> 00:35:06.250
the 4th place candidate as your top choice,
1488
00:35:06.550 --> 00:35:09.660
your vote now goes to your second choice on the ballot.
1489
00:35:10.510 --> 00:35:12.180
And so on and so on and so on.
1490
00:35:12.970 --> 00:35:13.760
Two things about this.
1491
00:35:13.850 --> 00:35:14.440
Number 1,
1492
00:35:14.610 --> 00:35:15.940
there's another guy on the ballot
1493
00:35:16.220 --> 00:35:17.240
named Dan Sullivan.
1494
00:35:17.320 --> 00:35:18.840
There's two Dan Sullivans on the ballot.
1495
00:35:18.970 --> 00:35:20.080
This was done intentionally,
1496
00:35:20.180 --> 00:35:22.530
quite clearly to hurt the main Dan Sullivan.
1497
00:35:22.770 --> 00:35:24.630
I don't know how much effect that will have.
1498
00:35:24.850 --> 00:35:25.000
I mean,
1499
00:35:25.050 --> 00:35:25.460
my
1500
00:35:26.120 --> 00:35:27.820
It's possible it has an effect.
1501
00:35:28.620 --> 00:35:30.810
It's really being talked about a lot in Alaska though,
1502
00:35:30.870 --> 00:35:33.760
so my guess is most voters are not gonna fall
1503
00:35:33.940 --> 00:35:34.530
for this trick,
1504
00:35:34.660 --> 00:35:37.090
but it is a trick and it might pick off 1% of voters,
1505
00:35:37.140 --> 00:35:37.810
and if it does that,
1506
00:35:37.860 --> 00:35:39.990
it could be a big deal in a close race.
1507
00:35:40.460 --> 00:35:40.570
Uh,
1508
00:35:40.740 --> 00:35:41.260
secondarily,
1509
00:35:41.340 --> 00:35:43.160
I think this format overall,
1510
00:35:43.660 --> 00:35:45.490
because there are multiple Republicans on the ballot is
1511
00:35:45.490 --> 00:35:48.210
gonna wind up benefiting at some level Peltola.
1512
00:35:48.500 --> 00:35:48.690
Um,
1513
00:35:48.860 --> 00:35:49.890
this is generally speaking,
1514
00:35:50.020 --> 00:35:50.170
you know,
1515
00:35:50.220 --> 00:35:50.290
I,
1516
00:35:50.340 --> 00:35:50.450
I,
1517
00:35:50.500 --> 00:35:52.210
I hear Republicans all the time saying we shouldn't have the
1518
00:35:52.210 --> 00:35:55.080
system because it always benefits Democrats and like I get it.
1519
00:35:55.530 --> 00:35:58.600
I get why you might not like this system and why you might not want this system,
1520
00:35:58.850 --> 00:35:59.220
but like,
1521
00:35:59.250 --> 00:36:01.750
I think part of this is also just blaming the system
1522
00:36:01.970 --> 00:36:03.430
for the faults of the candidates.
1523
00:36:03.690 --> 00:36:05.470
We all know what the rules of the game are here.
1524
00:36:05.810 --> 00:36:07.440
You've got a ranked choice voting system.
1525
00:36:07.570 --> 00:36:08.670
If you're a Republican candidate,
1526
00:36:08.770 --> 00:36:10.560
you gotta figure out how to win in that environment.
1527
00:36:11.510 --> 00:36:12.170
That's it.
1528
00:36:13.350 --> 00:36:15.330
Play the game based on the rules of the game.
1529
00:36:15.710 --> 00:36:17.730
Don't complain about the game the entire time.
1530
00:36:18.070 --> 00:36:20.240
You gotta play the rules based on the rules of the game.
1531
00:36:20.390 --> 00:36:21.220
So that's another thing.
1532
00:36:21.270 --> 00:36:22.690
And the other thing I'm gonna bring up here
1533
00:36:22.910 --> 00:36:23.340
is,
1534
00:36:23.470 --> 00:36:23.780
uh,
1535
00:36:23.990 --> 00:36:24.730
is
1536
00:36:25.030 --> 00:36:25.780
the gas prices.
1537
00:36:25.870 --> 00:36:27.770
We talked about how damaging that is.
1538
00:36:28.190 --> 00:36:29.370
Diesel is setting a new,
1539
00:36:29.510 --> 00:36:29.660
uh,
1540
00:36:29.790 --> 00:36:30.140
um,
1541
00:36:30.250 --> 00:36:30.540
uh,
1542
00:36:31.390 --> 00:36:32.860
new high every single day,
1543
00:36:32.950 --> 00:36:33.640
basically,
1544
00:36:33.910 --> 00:36:35.470
and we are in a real peak here.
1545
00:36:35.510 --> 00:36:36.900
That doesn't mean it lasts all the way to the election,
1546
00:36:36.990 --> 00:36:38.130
but right now it's a real thing.
1547
00:36:38.920 --> 00:36:40.260
The other thing about this is,
1548
00:36:40.280 --> 00:36:44.420
there is no state in our union that is more dependent on diesel fuel
1549
00:36:44.680 --> 00:36:45.750
than Alaska.
1550
00:36:46.200 --> 00:36:46.870
Let me show you this map,
1551
00:36:46.920 --> 00:36:48.010
this is from Nate Silver,
1552
00:36:48.120 --> 00:36:48.630
he points this,
1553
00:36:48.720 --> 00:36:50.790
I don't think he made this point on Alaska here,
1554
00:36:50.880 --> 00:36:52.470
but Alaska is the highest,
1555
00:36:52.700 --> 00:36:53.990
70%.
1556
00:36:54.350 --> 00:36:55.130
Dependence
1557
00:36:55.270 --> 00:36:57.490
on diesel as opposed to just regular
1558
00:36:57.630 --> 00:36:58.300
gasoline.
1559
00:36:58.390 --> 00:36:58.460
Now,
1560
00:36:58.510 --> 00:36:58.740
of course,
1561
00:36:58.790 --> 00:36:59.220
that makes sense,
1562
00:36:59.270 --> 00:37:00.950
a lot of long hauls in Alaska,
1563
00:37:01.320 --> 00:37:02.420
but that is a massive,
1564
00:37:02.550 --> 00:37:03.580
massive deal,
1565
00:37:03.790 --> 00:37:04.980
and they're facing the,
1566
00:37:05.150 --> 00:37:07.140
they already deal with really high prices in Alaska.
1567
00:37:07.230 --> 00:37:09.170
They're dealing with even more of that right now.
1568
00:37:09.470 --> 00:37:10.020
Scottylicious,
1569
00:37:10.070 --> 00:37:10.620
he's been on the show,
1570
00:37:10.670 --> 00:37:12.980
he's made multiple millions of dollars in prediction markets.
1571
00:37:13.070 --> 00:37:14.010
He's on this race
1572
00:37:14.150 --> 00:37:14.540
as well.
1573
00:37:14.660 --> 00:37:16.340
It's another indicator that it might be a good one.
1574
00:37:16.690 --> 00:37:16.760
Uh,
1575
00:37:16.890 --> 00:37:17.080
he says,
1576
00:37:17.130 --> 00:37:17.630
here's why
1577
00:37:17.930 --> 00:37:20.200
Team Scott Elicious bought a boatload of Peltola,
1578
00:37:20.490 --> 00:37:20.600
uh,
1579
00:37:20.690 --> 00:37:22.110
for Alaska Senate yesterday.
1580
00:37:22.290 --> 00:37:23.320
One candidate quality,
1581
00:37:23.410 --> 00:37:23.800
she's smart,
1582
00:37:23.890 --> 00:37:24.160
proven,
1583
00:37:24.210 --> 00:37:24.840
and well-liked.
1584
00:37:25.010 --> 00:37:25.310
I mean,
1585
00:37:25.610 --> 00:37:25.950
look,
1586
00:37:26.610 --> 00:37:26.760
that,
1587
00:37:26.890 --> 00:37:28.910
that shows in the way she's outperformed these polls.
1588
00:37:29.780 --> 00:37:29.860
Uh,
1589
00:37:30.150 --> 00:37:32.260
and she's outperformed the Democratic Party multiple times.
1590
00:37:32.540 --> 00:37:32.770
2,
1591
00:37:32.940 --> 00:37:35.130
Trump and ours are about as popular as toe fungus.
1592
00:37:35.180 --> 00:37:35.250
Uh,
1593
00:37:35.950 --> 00:37:36.450
some people,
1594
00:37:36.580 --> 00:37:38.130
I will say the media doesn't like even
1595
00:37:38.400 --> 00:37:40.210
actually would prefer toe fungus to Trump,
1596
00:37:40.300 --> 00:37:40.520
but,
1597
00:37:40.660 --> 00:37:40.730
uh,
1598
00:37:40.860 --> 00:37:41.770
you see his point here,
1599
00:37:41.940 --> 00:37:43.320
approval ratings not looking so good.
1600
00:37:43.540 --> 00:37:43.610
Uh,
1601
00:37:43.750 --> 00:37:44.530
romped in the debate.
1602
00:37:45.000 --> 00:37:45.750
Actually see the debate,
1603
00:37:45.840 --> 00:37:45.950
uh,
1604
00:37:46.050 --> 00:37:47.110
so I'll have to take his word for that.
1605
00:37:47.200 --> 00:37:48.290
Independents love her.
1606
00:37:48.440 --> 00:37:49.910
That's very true in Alaska,
1607
00:37:50.120 --> 00:37:52.420
and blue wave price discovery is incoming,
1608
00:37:52.440 --> 00:37:53.990
and you're kind of seeing that in the market.
1609
00:37:54.080 --> 00:37:56.510
You can see the blue wave price discovery incoming in this market.
1610
00:37:56.600 --> 00:37:57.790
Let me show it to you real quick before we
1611
00:37:57.790 --> 00:37:59.550
take a break because we got another segment to do.
1612
00:37:59.640 --> 00:38:00.240
But you see,
1613
00:38:00.520 --> 00:38:01.830
this market is climbing.
1614
00:38:02.080 --> 00:38:02.260
Uh,
1615
00:38:02.400 --> 00:38:03.460
we are seeing this,
1616
00:38:03.520 --> 00:38:03.590
uh,
1617
00:38:03.720 --> 00:38:04.030
go up.
1618
00:38:04.200 --> 00:38:04.390
Mary,
1619
00:38:04.520 --> 00:38:06.510
Mary Peltola is at 78%.
1620
00:38:07.050 --> 00:38:09.160
I don't know what I think the right percentage is.
1621
00:38:09.210 --> 00:38:10.440
I think there's a good chance she wins,
1622
00:38:10.490 --> 00:38:10.660
and,
1623
00:38:10.730 --> 00:38:11.600
and gun to my head,
1624
00:38:11.650 --> 00:38:12.770
I think she's the favorite.
1625
00:38:13.010 --> 00:38:16.950
I have that race as a lean Democrat race if you saw my segment a couple of weeks ago.
1626
00:38:17.410 --> 00:38:18.870
I don't know that she's,
1627
00:38:19.480 --> 00:38:19.490
I,
1628
00:38:19.570 --> 00:38:19.600
I,
1629
00:38:19.850 --> 00:38:20.470
I don't know.
1630
00:38:20.690 --> 00:38:22.760
I don't know that she's a 90% favorite though,
1631
00:38:22.890 --> 00:38:23.230
so.
1632
00:38:23.760 --> 00:38:25.750
A lot of these gains have kind of come up here,
1633
00:38:25.840 --> 00:38:27.830
but if you're looking for something to offset
1634
00:38:28.000 --> 00:38:30.510
what could be that Democratic wave if you're not positioned well,
1635
00:38:30.640 --> 00:38:33.350
Peltola might be really interesting because I think she might win even if,
1636
00:38:33.430 --> 00:38:33.630
if,
1637
00:38:33.720 --> 00:38:35.540
if these polls turn back a little bit
1638
00:38:35.800 --> 00:38:37.230
toward Republican candidates.
1639
00:38:37.440 --> 00:38:37.950
Gotta take a break.
1640
00:38:38.000 --> 00:38:38.840
It's a little bit long there,
1641
00:38:38.920 --> 00:38:40.820
but we've got an interesting one coming up for you
1642
00:38:40.950 --> 00:38:41.310
next.
1643
00:38:56.280 --> 00:38:57.740
Let's look at a market that I kinda like.
1644
00:38:57.880 --> 00:38:58.420
That's
1645
00:38:58.790 --> 00:39:00.280
mainly because we're doing a segment called,
1646
00:39:00.400 --> 00:39:00.550
here,
1647
00:39:00.800 --> 00:39:01.670
here's one I kinda like,
1648
00:39:01.760 --> 00:39:03.660
which so it makes sense to fit one in there.
1649
00:39:04.000 --> 00:39:04.110
Uh,
1650
00:39:04.200 --> 00:39:04.700
I wanna go,
1651
00:39:04.790 --> 00:39:05.260
um,
1652
00:39:05.320 --> 00:39:08.230
to something that's kind of taken the internet by storm here and one of
1653
00:39:08.230 --> 00:39:10.030
the things I tell you all the time is don't believe the hype.
1654
00:39:11.270 --> 00:39:12.510
That's not a hard and fast rule though.
1655
00:39:12.750 --> 00:39:13.940
Sometimes you should believe the hype.
1656
00:39:14.110 --> 00:39:14.380
And I,
1657
00:39:14.470 --> 00:39:16.010
that's where I am on this particular,
1658
00:39:16.260 --> 00:39:16.620
uh,
1659
00:39:16.980 --> 00:39:17.370
situation,
1660
00:39:17.390 --> 00:39:19.700
and there's a market position that I think is interesting
1661
00:39:19.870 --> 00:39:20.890
associated with it.
1662
00:39:21.110 --> 00:39:21.460
Um,
1663
00:39:21.670 --> 00:39:22.900
you can see everything.
1664
00:39:23.220 --> 00:39:23.660
The trailer,
1665
00:39:23.790 --> 00:39:25.460
Nathan Fielder lives with Elizabeth Holmes,
1666
00:39:25.550 --> 00:39:28.210
makes her cry and interrogates her husband in documentary.
1667
00:39:28.550 --> 00:39:29.660
If you haven't seen this trailer yet,
1668
00:39:29.750 --> 00:39:30.090
now I,
1669
00:39:30.190 --> 00:39:31.470
I will say it's acquired,
1670
00:39:31.630 --> 00:39:33.050
Nathan Fielder is certainly an acquired taste.
1671
00:39:33.150 --> 00:39:33.980
I love Nathan Fielder.
1672
00:39:34.020 --> 00:39:35.570
I've liked him for since Nathan for You,
1673
00:39:35.980 --> 00:39:36.090
um,
1674
00:39:36.110 --> 00:39:37.660
and some of his stuff even before that.
1675
00:39:38.030 --> 00:39:38.310
Um,
1676
00:39:38.470 --> 00:39:38.680
but,
1677
00:39:38.820 --> 00:39:39.170
uh,
1678
00:39:39.540 --> 00:39:40.410
not everyone loves the guy.
1679
00:39:40.820 --> 00:39:42.130
He's a little awkward and it can be weird,
1680
00:39:42.220 --> 00:39:44.400
but this is getting all sorts of hype online.
1681
00:39:44.580 --> 00:39:45.640
Let me show you a clip
1682
00:39:45.860 --> 00:39:46.490
of the trailer.
1683
00:39:47.380 --> 00:39:51.120
You've never been suspicious that she's ever lied to you?
1684
00:39:51.450 --> 00:39:51.680
No,
1685
00:39:51.950 --> 00:39:52.360
never.
1686
00:39:53.910 --> 00:39:57.260
I still have this weird feeling that there's some things that
1687
00:39:57.430 --> 00:39:58.500
I'm not seeing.
1688
00:39:59.540 --> 00:40:01.250
It's because I don't have anything to hide.
1689
00:40:08.220 --> 00:40:09.090
I know what you're feeling
1690
00:40:10.040 --> 00:40:10.180
No,
1691
00:40:10.200 --> 00:40:10.790
you don't.
1692
00:40:19.350 --> 00:40:19.530
I mean,
1693
00:40:19.580 --> 00:40:22.430
it took me a really long time to
1694
00:40:24.110 --> 00:40:24.850
Be OK
1695
00:40:24.980 --> 00:40:25.530
with
1696
00:40:26.610 --> 00:40:27.310
I'm
1697
00:40:29.390 --> 00:40:30.900
With letting someone see me cry.
1698
00:40:46.870 --> 00:40:47.180
I mean,
1699
00:40:47.360 --> 00:40:47.660
first of all,
1700
00:40:47.710 --> 00:40:48.390
it's
1701
00:40:48.790 --> 00:40:50.740
one of the greatest trailers of all time.
1702
00:40:50.830 --> 00:40:50.940
I,
1703
00:40:50.990 --> 00:40:51.460
I don't know.
1704
00:40:51.510 --> 00:40:51.660
I,
1705
00:40:51.750 --> 00:40:52.210
I,
1706
00:40:52.700 --> 00:40:52.780
I,
1707
00:40:52.870 --> 00:40:53.150
I'm a,
1708
00:40:53.170 --> 00:40:53.540
I'm a,
1709
00:40:53.690 --> 00:40:55.310
a fan of movie trailers generally,
1710
00:40:55.350 --> 00:40:56.300
but that's a great one.
1711
00:40:56.350 --> 00:40:56.510
I mean,
1712
00:40:56.550 --> 00:40:58.290
it comes off almost like it's like a creepy,
1713
00:40:58.430 --> 00:40:59.490
what was that Backrooms?
1714
00:40:59.620 --> 00:41:00.090
Didn't they do that?
1715
00:41:00.110 --> 00:41:01.260
I think it was A24 as well.
1716
00:41:01.350 --> 00:41:02.140
Has the same vibe.
1717
00:41:02.350 --> 00:41:02.620
Anyway,
1718
00:41:02.710 --> 00:41:04.940
it's a documentary about Elizabeth Holmes and
1719
00:41:04.940 --> 00:41:07.210
Nathan Fielder is there talking about that,
1720
00:41:07.710 --> 00:41:07.850
uh,
1721
00:41:07.950 --> 00:41:08.100
you know,
1722
00:41:08.190 --> 00:41:08.940
they're living with them,
1723
00:41:09.110 --> 00:41:10.340
having conversations with Elizabeth Holmes.
1724
00:41:10.400 --> 00:41:11.720
If you don't remember her story,
1725
00:41:12.030 --> 00:41:13.570
it's a fascinating story in and of itself.
1726
00:41:13.790 --> 00:41:14.830
She created this company,
1727
00:41:14.950 --> 00:41:15.420
Theranos.
1728
00:41:15.590 --> 00:41:16.230
She became
1729
00:41:16.580 --> 00:41:16.770
Um,
1730
00:41:16.860 --> 00:41:18.480
this massive celebrity.
1731
00:41:18.970 --> 00:41:20.470
She had huge,
1732
00:41:20.690 --> 00:41:20.840
uh,
1733
00:41:20.960 --> 00:41:23.320
not only celebrities but like government officials
1734
00:41:23.320 --> 00:41:24.870
and all these people on her board.
1735
00:41:25.210 --> 00:41:26.390
She was developing,
1736
00:41:26.490 --> 00:41:26.560
uh,
1737
00:41:26.690 --> 00:41:27.910
this technology to,
1738
00:41:28.010 --> 00:41:28.200
um,
1739
00:41:28.450 --> 00:41:28.750
basically,
1740
00:41:28.890 --> 00:41:29.080
you know,
1741
00:41:29.250 --> 00:41:30.280
I just had to get blood tests,
1742
00:41:30.330 --> 00:41:30.640
uh,
1743
00:41:30.810 --> 00:41:30.980
the,
1744
00:41:31.130 --> 00:41:32.660
the other day because I'm getting old,
1745
00:41:32.970 --> 00:41:33.090
um,
1746
00:41:33.170 --> 00:41:34.010
and then my doctor's like,
1747
00:41:34.050 --> 00:41:34.280
you know,
1748
00:41:34.370 --> 00:41:34.750
uh,
1749
00:41:35.170 --> 00:41:35.520
you don't look.
1750
00:41:35.660 --> 00:41:36.030
So good.
1751
00:41:36.210 --> 00:41:36.320
Uh,
1752
00:41:36.450 --> 00:41:37.800
so I got a bunch of blood tests and,
1753
00:41:37.850 --> 00:41:38.080
uh,
1754
00:41:38.250 --> 00:41:38.880
and it was like she,
1755
00:41:39.250 --> 00:41:41.140
they still got like 900 jugs of,
1756
00:41:41.290 --> 00:41:42.800
of blood out of my veins.
1757
00:41:43.250 --> 00:41:43.370
The,
1758
00:41:43.450 --> 00:41:44.430
the concept was great.
1759
00:41:44.690 --> 00:41:47.220
Theranos basically promised you just get a pinprick,
1760
00:41:47.460 --> 00:41:48.360
very small amount of blood,
1761
00:41:48.410 --> 00:41:50.800
and they could test that blood a million different ways and
1762
00:41:50.800 --> 00:41:52.400
you can get all these results that you might need.
1763
00:41:53.100 --> 00:41:53.530
Unfortunately,
1764
00:41:53.580 --> 00:41:54.920
the technology really didn't work.
1765
00:41:55.060 --> 00:41:55.900
It was kind of BS.
1766
00:41:56.060 --> 00:41:56.570
She sort of,
1767
00:41:56.700 --> 00:41:56.890
you know,
1768
00:41:56.980 --> 00:41:58.450
she's denied a lot of this stuff,
1769
00:41:58.500 --> 00:41:59.370
but basically,
1770
00:41:59.540 --> 00:41:59.610
I,
1771
00:41:59.740 --> 00:41:59.770
I,
1772
00:41:59.860 --> 00:42:00.050
I mean,
1773
00:42:00.100 --> 00:42:01.240
I think she defrauded,
1774
00:42:01.260 --> 00:42:01.540
uh,
1775
00:42:01.620 --> 00:42:02.970
a lot of people out of a lot of money,
1776
00:42:03.100 --> 00:42:04.300
at least that was the accusation.
1777
00:42:04.460 --> 00:42:05.010
Anyway,
1778
00:42:05.300 --> 00:42:08.210
she's kind of known as someone who maybe doesn't tell the truth all that often.
1779
00:42:08.380 --> 00:42:09.250
Nathan Fielder there,
1780
00:42:09.380 --> 00:42:09.490
uh,
1781
00:42:09.670 --> 00:42:10.570
trying to get that out of her.
1782
00:42:10.660 --> 00:42:10.850
He's,
1783
00:42:10.980 --> 00:42:13.010
he will sit through every awkward silence to get
1784
00:42:13.010 --> 00:42:14.600
it and it's gonna be an incredible movie.
1785
00:42:14.780 --> 00:42:15.900
The reason why I bring this up
1786
00:42:16.060 --> 00:42:17.400
on a prediction market context
1787
00:42:17.620 --> 00:42:19.690
is there's a couple of markets tied to this that I wanna bring up.
1788
00:42:19.780 --> 00:42:19.890
Um,
1789
00:42:19.980 --> 00:42:22.410
let me bring up the Oscar nominees for Best Documentary Film.
1790
00:42:23.090 --> 00:42:24.390
Now this.
1791
00:42:26.730 --> 00:42:27.960
It's at 79 right now.
1792
00:42:28.050 --> 00:42:29.150
I think that's a value.
1793
00:42:29.570 --> 00:42:32.080
I can't imagine this movie not getting a nomination.
1794
00:42:32.130 --> 00:42:33.080
It may not win.
1795
00:42:33.170 --> 00:42:33.320
I,
1796
00:42:33.410 --> 00:42:34.760
I kinda like the win market too.
1797
00:42:34.850 --> 00:42:36.010
I don't remember what that was at,
1798
00:42:36.290 --> 00:42:37.800
but like I kinda like the win market too.
1799
00:42:37.920 --> 00:42:40.400
A nomination I really like at 79%.
1800
00:42:41.250 --> 00:42:41.600
You know,
1801
00:42:41.890 --> 00:42:42.200
the,
1802
00:42:42.370 --> 00:42:44.840
the critics love Nathan Fielder.
1803
00:42:45.130 --> 00:42:46.120
They love his stuff.
1804
00:42:46.290 --> 00:42:47.800
He's a critical darling.
1805
00:42:48.050 --> 00:42:50.110
He's out there doing really unique things.
1806
00:42:50.250 --> 00:42:51.630
Everybody's talking about this.
1807
00:42:51.730 --> 00:42:53.120
When people talk about a documentary,
1808
00:42:53.210 --> 00:42:54.640
which is really rare,
1809
00:42:54.800 --> 00:42:56.790
it usually does get nominations.
1810
00:42:57.050 --> 00:42:57.550
Um,
1811
00:42:57.810 --> 00:42:58.840
there is actually one,
1812
00:42:59.330 --> 00:43:00.310
a category for this,
1813
00:43:00.410 --> 00:43:01.250
for will it get a,
1814
00:43:01.270 --> 00:43:04.210
a Best Picture nomination that's only happened 3 times in history,
1815
00:43:04.330 --> 00:43:05.670
so it's super rare.
1816
00:43:06.250 --> 00:43:06.760
But I'm like,
1817
00:43:06.850 --> 00:43:07.790
I might even
1818
00:43:07.930 --> 00:43:08.910
put a flyer on that.
1819
00:43:08.970 --> 00:43:09.440
I don't know.
1820
00:43:09.570 --> 00:43:10.390
That's where I am.
1821
00:43:10.490 --> 00:43:12.130
I haven't done massive amounts of research.
1822
00:43:12.250 --> 00:43:12.440
This is,
1823
00:43:12.530 --> 00:43:13.280
here's what I kinda like.
1824
00:43:13.340 --> 00:43:14.190
It's just something I saw,
1825
00:43:14.450 --> 00:43:15.320
I'm kind of interested in,
1826
00:43:15.530 --> 00:43:17.030
taking a little small position on it.
1827
00:43:17.490 --> 00:43:18.750
I think there's good value there
1828
00:43:18.890 --> 00:43:22.080
on Nathan Fielder's new documentary for Best Picture or for Best,
1829
00:43:22.130 --> 00:43:22.310
uh,
1830
00:43:22.450 --> 00:43:23.700
Documentary nomination and who knows,
1831
00:43:23.770 --> 00:43:24.630
maybe a little bit more.
1832
00:43:24.810 --> 00:43:25.320
Back in a second.
1833
00:43:34.570 --> 00:43:35.740
And as we're looking at the,
1834
00:43:35.970 --> 00:43:36.190
the,
1835
00:43:36.210 --> 00:43:36.510
uh,
1836
00:43:36.530 --> 00:43:37.600
live feed of that market,
1837
00:43:37.650 --> 00:43:38.480
you could see it jumping.
1838
00:43:38.610 --> 00:43:38.920
People,
1839
00:43:39.050 --> 00:43:39.240
you know,
1840
00:43:39.330 --> 00:43:40.290
this is why people love,
1841
00:43:40.330 --> 00:43:40.510
uh,
1842
00:43:40.530 --> 00:43:40.830
the
1843
00:43:41.200 --> 00:43:41.840
live stream.
1844
00:43:41.910 --> 00:43:42.110
Um,
1845
00:43:42.370 --> 00:43:45.000
you get that as part of your predictable show premium subscription.
1846
00:43:45.020 --> 00:43:47.700
You watch the show taping live and you can get in these markets a little bit early.
1847
00:43:48.170 --> 00:43:48.300
Uh,
1848
00:43:48.450 --> 00:43:50.000
and take advantage of that opportunity.
1849
00:43:50.170 --> 00:43:50.240
Uh,
1850
00:43:50.330 --> 00:43:51.440
it's at predictableShow.com.
1851
00:43:51.530 --> 00:43:52.290
We'd love you to join us there.
1852
00:43:52.350 --> 00:43:53.370
We have great tools for you.
1853
00:43:53.490 --> 00:43:55.850
Every pick that I have in prediction markets is there.
1854
00:43:56.210 --> 00:43:56.600
We have,
1855
00:43:56.690 --> 00:43:56.850
uh,
1856
00:43:57.010 --> 00:43:58.880
all the states broken down with the,
1857
00:43:58.980 --> 00:43:58.990
uh,
1858
00:43:59.090 --> 00:43:59.720
the PMC,
1859
00:43:59.770 --> 00:44:01.520
the predictable midterm consensus.
1860
00:44:01.810 --> 00:44:01.980
Um,
1861
00:44:02.170 --> 00:44:03.360
it's an election model that,
1862
00:44:03.520 --> 00:44:03.560
you know,
1863
00:44:03.730 --> 00:44:05.220
describes everything that's going on
1864
00:44:05.420 --> 00:44:05.560
in,
1865
00:44:05.650 --> 00:44:06.720
in data and in the elections.
1866
00:44:06.850 --> 00:44:07.600
There's tons of stuff there,
1867
00:44:07.770 --> 00:44:08.400
a million tools.
1868
00:44:08.450 --> 00:44:09.520
Just go to predictableShow.com,
1869
00:44:09.690 --> 00:44:09.960
play with it.
1870
00:44:10.010 --> 00:44:11.430
You're gonna find a lot of cool things.
1871
00:44:11.580 --> 00:44:14.590
If you're interested in elections or if you're interested in prediction markets,
1872
00:44:14.820 --> 00:44:15.470
you're gonna love it.
1873
00:44:15.690 --> 00:44:16.200
We'll see you tomorrow.