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Speaker 1: The show goes on. This is the official show on the fish Stripes podcast channel with me Eli Susman, the managing editor of fish Stripes, where we cover your Miami Marlins every day in our own way. Be sure to follow all of our fish Stripes coverage wherever you can get it. Of course, subscribe to the podcast wherever you get your pods to get my official show, fish Stripes Unfiltered, a new one coming up this weekend and throughout the week. We have our small pods with Andrew Bernall and Daniel Rodriguez. On social media, you can find us at fish Stripes on Twitter, on Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, YouTube. We are getting close to my one thousand subscriber goal on YouTube. If everybody that subscribes to the pod right here just does the same thing on YouTube where we have some exclusive content that you won't get here on the pod, then that'd be perfect. That would get us to that milestone. Help us out and go ahead and do that as well. Of course, all the content all the time leads back to Fishstripes dot com. That's the mothership. Go bookmarket, go check it out throughout the season, even during off days like today when I'm recording this even during the off season as well. We are all about the Marlins all the time. The one thing that I haven't really done at length is discuss what I'm seeing from the Marlins minor league system so far in this twenty twenty two season. I weave them into all the Monday official shows naming my prospects of the week, and we work it into almost all of the live streams on Fish Stripes Live as well. But I wanted to take what probably half an hour or so just to ramble, if you will, but hopefully in a useful way, about what I'm seeing from Marlin's prospects. We are just past the one quarter mark of the minor league season this year. The minor league season started right about the same time as the major league one, and it's not quite as long, but it's actually longer than it was, certainly in twenty twenty one, so the sample sizes to this point are already pretty substantial, and coming off what was a pretty normal twenty twenty one season, this is a lot of fun. This is the time where you could draw some more useful conclusions, I believe, from these players than you could during the twenty twenty one season, which came on the heels, of course, of the canceled twenty twenty Minor League season due to COVID. Anyway, so here we are, COVID is not completely out of the picture. In fact, on the Marlin's affiliates had a game postponed due to health and safety protocols. Nonetheless, I feel that we have gleaned so much useful information enough that I was able to update my Marlin's Top thirty prospects list at Fish Stripes. I put it up originally on April fifth, and I keep a pride of it. Look as well, I updated for my own purposes internally how I feel about the top thirty prospects, and I go deeper than that as well. I have some just mists, if you want to be honest, I probably keep almost every single minor leaguer in the Marlins farm system. I've ranked in an arbitrary way, And the reality is that once you get deep enough, far past thirty to fifty, you get to a point where it is really just splitting hairs between these players even during even for a high quality farm system. And I would say that the Marlins farm system is certainly above average relative to the others in Major League Baseball at this moment. With a nice drive class potentially on deck as well, those only go so far. There's only so many players in this farm system that realistically are going to be viable big league players, anything more than replacement level players. And the reason why thirty is such a popular cutoff is that I think you can look at probably thirty guys in this farm system right now now that should be or have a good chance to be better than replacement level players at the big league level. They have a chance to be somebody to play a part, either with the Marlins or with another team. So my updates, almost everybody moved a little bit on this list. You'll be ailit to see the other one. I'm keeping it pins on the fish Stripes homepage to make it easy to find. You could also go to fish stripes dot com slash prospects for a specific section where we focus on the prospects. It's even easier to find that all year long where I stand on the top thirty, The one that was easiest is the top spot. Urie Perez keeping him at number one. He solidified himself as number one to this early point in the year, getting what we thought was an exceptionally aggressive move to go up to double A to start the season to make his double A debut before his nineteenth birthday. Even though the era is still bloated, the peripherals look even better than his outstanding twenty twenty one season. Strikeout rate is up, ground ball rate is up. He's looking spectacular, throwing harder than he was before adding a new slider as well. So what I feel I'd done differently with my prospect list compared to others is I wanted to include game footage of just about everybody, a mix of game footage. In a few cases I just use silly gifts gifts as well, but for the most part, game footage in case you're not able to watch the games on a consistent basis to get a better idea of what these young players are capable of. So in the case of Uri, in the case of Max Meyer, my number two guy, you can go to them their pages and actually see each of their individual pitches and understand what they're trying to accomplish on the mounds. I split up my top thirty in tiers as well, keep it to about six tiers and there could be some flexibility moving forward. I feel at this moment that there are six distinct tiers of Marlin's prospects. It relates closely to what they do at Fangraphs in terms of future value, where you weigh all the factors together when evaluating these players. What I mean by that is, of course they're ceiling, you know, the realistic best case scenario for their careers, their floor. On the other end, the injury risk, the position they play, the room for development's ability to adjust, and intangibles. Mix that all together and come up with doesn't have to be purely scientific. A little art to it as well, with bundling it down to the probabilities of those various outcomes, and once you put it all together, exactly how valuable that player should be. How much they are quote worth as an asset. And I hate to assign that title to a player. The reality is that's kind of what prospects are treated as in professional baseball, trying to weigh how much how likely they are to succeed with you, and whether that's worth actually moving them for a more proven commodity at a certain time. So what that said, one other factor I put in there is the player's roster status if you will, or you know exactly how many minor league options they have left, what position, where they stand on the depth chart in the Marlins organization right now. These things that are frankly out of their control can have a large role in whether or not they are ultimately successful in the majors. What we're trying to do is, yeah, project how much major league value they are going to produce during their careers, and that stuff is not all about talents. There are so many of these miscellaneous factors that go into it as well. I already mentioned Yuri. He is not only the top prospect of the Marlins system, but I do believe he is a tier on his own, that there is a pretty significant gap between him and his potential and everybody else in this farm system ready.
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Speaker 2: To deal the one to two to angular and the pitch check swang gotta one two on the way to Anthony mulryan and the pick swinging a miss strike three ninety eight.
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Speaker 1: Going back to Fangrafts, on a twenty to eighty scouting scale, they try to come up with a single future value number, where fifty is an average starting player at the major league level, and of course eighty is the Mic Trouts of the world, and the twenties are the Isan Diazz of the world. You can never really see that coming with a player, but that's kind of what I mean in terms of somebody that actually hurts the team as well, and I believe the Marlins at this time have it's the top thirty list. I would say about thirty six players in this organization are a forty or higher where I can see them being something more than replacement level players, and they are. They're more beyond that that are worth focusing on in terms of the ones worth prioritizing at the moments, and this thing is pretty fluid. That's kind of where I was at right narrat it down to about thirty six, and I included the six last men out in the write up on fish stripes dot Com as well. If you're interested, I urate in his own tier. I feel that his future value is it's like a high fifty five. Maybe you could look at it as a sixty as a firm above average major league player, where the ceiling the best case scenario is obviously higher than that with how complete he is as a pitcher and although just everything he has working in his favor, how unique he is. Frankly among current major league pictures. He could be a perennial All Star, and what the best picture that the Marlins have had since Jose Fernandez. That's not an exaggeration. There's also, of course, the risk involved with that with any pitcher. That's something that I rest with understanding the way that baseball is handled, the workloads that players receive. Position players at their finests are going to be more important to your team than any individual pitcher. Pitchers just do not have the freedom to work as many endings as they used to. They are handled very carefully because of that, they just aren't quite one. They're not as predictable one year after another, and even at their very best, they don't alter the direction of your franchise quite as much as they used to. That thing said, at this time, I still think the very top of the Marlin system is pitching heavy, and so that speaks to how well they are developing these pitchers and also how there's still something more they need to do in terms of getting the most out of their position player talent. You're a number one. I also have Max in his own tier as well, So I don't think this is going to be typical moving forward to this farm system to have both those players in their own tier. But I think Max is the one other guy in this farm system that is notably above an average player. If I'm projecting forward, I think his future value is above a fifty, a high fifty, maybe a fifty five. Despite what he's done in the last two outings coming into this ranking at the minor league level. That has been well publicized is how much he has struggled in those two outings. It does not really alter my evaluation of him at this time. I think you can see how he how much he has improved even since last season despite the overall stats. He's throwing harder, his change up is better, his slider is exactly what's supposed to be, and he does so many of the little things that I absolutely love, controlling the running game, fielding his position, getting efficient outs, understanding that balance between one and two strike everybody out, and wanting to work deep into games. So we've seen him work deep into games. We've seen him work on four days rest, on regular rest at trip, even though he didn't get much of an opportunity to do that the year before. So that's enough on the on the top end. From here, I'm just going to bounce around to some of the other notable movers that I had in my top thirty. The next tier was Khalil Watson, the infielder top draft pick last year, along with Edward Cabrera, and the outfielders the Kylee. Alferlders from twenty nineteen who are finally knocking on the door to the big leagues, Peyden Burdick, and JJ Blode. I move Berdick ahead of blue Day for the first time this year, and you could read up on why the rest of the list going to tiers four and below. I didn't really write out my thoughts, and that's kind of why I'm recording the podcast, is to focus on some of these other guys that are very notable and can be you can really be huge pieces of the future, even if they're not at the very top of the list. I still have Jake Eeder at number seven, the left hander from the twenty twenty draft who was missing all this year due to Tommy jay On surgery. What he did at Double A in twenty twenty one was absolutely mind blowing, in his professional debut, and with Tommy John surgery, fortunately, it's a little bit more predictable to project, to look at the recovery, and it's safer to assume that a player that undergoes Tommy John will come out on the other side and be either a similar version of themselves or in some cases actually a little bit better if they spend all that downtime focusing on the right things. He's followed by Jose Salas and Ian Lewis. Ian Lewis is one to watch it because he finally got into some games recently earlier this month after staying back at extended spring training, and his numbers are off the charts. So first career to this point, he's hitting like three forty or something around there for a nineteen year old switch hitting infielder. He has really high side. It's just that we need more of a sample before going really overboard. That's somebody that I feel has a lot of helium to them. What else do we have in here? So my criteria for ranking prospects is a little bit different than everybody else's, So I still have label ideas as prospect eligible at number eleven. That's something that's explained in the intro on fish stripes, because the standard that the industry uses is fifty ennings pitched in the major leagues or one hundred and thirty at bats for position players to graduate from prospect eligibility, and I just feel that's kind of an archaic definition that we should standardize it for both position players and pitchers. The magic number that I use is two hundred for batters faced or for played appearances, So in most cases that actually means these guys stay prospect eligible a little longer than the normal system does. And that's you know, so that's my choice. That's something to keep in mind. So for Leywin, the way that the team has been handling him, you know, I'm as frustrated as anybody is about that and why they didn't make arrangements to have him in a semi everyday role entering this season and instead have now had him in the big leagues for exactly one day to this point in the season. Nothing left to prove down in the minor leagues. But I did have to move him down just for this is keeping in mind the factors out of a player's control that he is unlikely to get significant playing time in the majors at least for the next couple months, and that they are using his final minor league option year for Layowen here in twenty twenty two, which means that moving forward, it's it puts him in a position where there's more pressure to perform. He's not going to have that luxury of an option to fall back on. You know, they won't be able to send him down to the minors in a future season if without if you know, he's struggling, and that is sometimes a necessary thing to get the best out of a player. But the way that they've handled him, I think it certainly hurts that. The bottom line is, I think it hurts his likelihood of success. It's disappointing. So I've had him pretty consistently in the past as somewhere between number seven and number nine prospect in the organization, even with a lot of graduations in recent years. For this Marvelin's organization, I've been moving down the list because the longer they keep him down and he continues to do the same things, it's not a limitless clock that you have to prove yourself, especially at a position like first base, and then the next one in that area that I want to touch on is six dough Sanchez, who you know, I've been extremely high on in the past before his injury and even early after his shoulder injury in twenty twenty one. So he's now at this point fourteen months removed from facing live hitters, and he still has a ways to go before he's able to do that again. But I kept him on the list at least in the top thirty because he has made some progress with his throwing program. Most recent report up to ninety feet, which is something that he didn't reach last year prior to undergoing his surgery. So they're being very methodical, as is the case with Langwin. They are you know, the clock is ticking. This is his final option year as well. So when six zero comes back, whether it's towards the end of this season or in twenty twenty three, it's just he is in an uncomfortable position. They are not prioritizing him. They're not making him a priority for this organization, even though they were just a couple of years ago, and with him obviously coming off this injury, I needed to dock him for that. It's different than Tommy John. It's not as routine when they go inside the shoulder and repair a tear there. As we've seen with his recovery, it has taken longer than a typical Tommy John would recover. The expectation of all his stuff coming back to what it used to be. That's no guarantee either. It is far from a guarantee that six to oh is sitting ninety eight ninety nine with his fastball velocity on the other side of the shoulder injury. I still think that the upside and all the traits that he has as a starting pitcher or give him a nice upside that not many players in this organization had the upside of six to do if he does put it back together and if everything between his ears is pushing in the right direction. It's no secret that the team has had concerns about his focus, about his motivation, about his work ethic, and I think all those have been fair concerns at this point. And that goes into whether he'll be the best version of himself once his body permits him to be. The rest of this top thirty some other notables they want to point out, is the biggest riser on this list since the start of the season Harra and Karnacion. He started this year repeating double a Pensacola. That's something that's a red flag for me. When a player starts one season at a level, spends most of the season at that level, and then repeats it the next year. It just means I wouldn't say a red flag. I would say it changes the way I interpret their performance. So her last year at Pensacola, he was a slightly below league average hitter. He's a well below average defender at the corner outfield spots and at first base. He's a slow runner, and he also got hurt during that year as well. The underlying stats were really scary, the spike and his strikeout rate. He was striking out more than a third of the time I think was thirty eight percent of the time in twenty twenty one. That's the kind of number that over a considerable sample, that's a red flag because it's unlikely for a player to be whipping that often against minor league pitching and to be expecting anything different once they eventually get to the major leagues. To his credit, he has looked absolutely phenomenal so far this season. He was leading the farm system in home runs prior to his promotion to Triple A and just in the past few days as I'm recording this, he got home runs in each of his first two Triple A Jacksonville games, one of them a no doubter to the opposite field. How often do you hear that? It was about fifteen rows deep to right field for this right handed hitter.
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Speaker 2: To two and then Carnassi owned swings puts a charge into that one, back up the track and right field. That one is on a here well, first triple A home run for Yerar and Carnacion, and Jacksonville's on the board here in the bottom of.
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Speaker 1: The eighth in it. And the next day the only offense for Jacksonville on Wednesday was a tank to left field that he pulled. They said the track man estimate was four hundred and thirty three feet. I made a whole highlight reel of him that's available on our YouTube channel of his longest home runs, and if I went back and edited that video now, I'd have to include his most recent one. He does have special power. During his breakout season of twenty nineteen, I did liken him to someone like Garrett Cooper. I think there's a lot in common with Cooper on all really every element. He's about that kind of humongous size and has some of the same concerns as well in terms of durability, in terms of defensive fit. And he's on the forty man roster, so his clock is ticking a little bit as well in terms of when they'll get opportunities and if those opportunities are not coming in Miami in the near term future. Considering all the veterans, all the veteran right handed mashers on this roster, then I this is something that Alex Carver Fish on the pharm I suggested it is exactly whether he'd be best used as a trade ship during this summer or at the end of the year, because he doesn't have a whole lot left to prove in the minors. Now that he has bounced back looking very much like that exciting prospect that he was in twenty nineteen, someone that was unranked in my top thirty coming off the year that he had, and I'm seeing a lot of the things that I loved about him a few years ago to restore that faith in him in that same area of the list. This is what Harrar is in tier five. Yeah, so the division I have is right after six to six Dough. I have him at the end of the fourth tier of players, ones who right close to a fifty future value just a little bit below, and then so that next list's other guys that if they were to become average big league regulars, then that's a win. None of these guys beyond the top twelve I think you should be penciling in as starting players. That's just the reality of player development is that everybody from Joe Mack and Victor Mason, Junior, Yeadicape, Zach mccamberly on down, these guys are exciting for a variety of reasons. It's just that as overall players, there are enough obstacles that they have to overcome. In my opinion, this is all my opinion, of course, to be to be stars in the big leagues, to be even like stable starters in the big leagues. We have Ancharnasion at eighteen. Paul McIntosh I put him at number twenty three, the catcher, undrafted free agent less than one year ago, mashed for low Way Jupiter, really impressed during spring training and got bumped up right to double a Pensacola playing against competition his own age, and continues to hit really well, continues to run surprisingly well for a catcher, and defensively behind the plate. A lot of the results that you're seeing from the Pensacola team speak for themselves. That was a team that got to a relatively slow start, and as I'm talking about them, are in the midst of one of the longest winning streaks in the minors. Pitching exceptionally well, not just like prime ticket, prime talent starters like Perez, but also all these relievers that are having career years at their pen and more often than not throwing to McIntosh. So he's doing really well on all sides of the ball, and the way he impacts the ball and hits it to all fields is exciting. You don't see that very often from catchers as well. I think there's a pretty strong chance that he has a big career in a significant one as well, and one that could start in the relatively near future. Some other guys breaking through. Brian Hoeing I put him at number twenty six, made some fascinating adjustments coming off last year. In twenty twenty one, he led all my Marlins minor leaguers and innings pitched. It's just that the actual effectiveness of those innings wasn't anything to write home about. Got promoted to double A, got to such an extraordinary start that they moved him to Jacksonville as well. Right now, I think he's a really well rounded pitcher that has some true rotation upside. At number twenty eight, I went with Josh Simpson. I wanted to make sure to stick him in. He is one of those Pensacola relievers that is having a career year. He is having as good a year as any reliever in minor league baseball, as well as anybody in Major League Baseball as well. He's been pretty much perfect. He has not allowed a run in eighteen and two thirds endings pitched. He gives me very strong Alex Vesia vibes. Of course, Vesia was dominant across every level of the Marlins minor league system, and shortly after debuting got traded to the Dodgers. Since then, he has gone on to become a really useful middle reliever for them. It's always tricky to know exactly where to slot relievers in prospect rankings alongside players that you know are going to be on the field on the mounds a lot more often than them. But in my opinion, certainly in the back half of a top thirty, even in this Marlins farm system, that you can put a reliever there if you feel very confident in what they're going to bring and that's going to translate to the majors. There's few things that are easier to translate than you swing and miss relievers in the minors and how they'll do in the majors. And I think Simpson this has sort of come out of nowhere because he was at the Arizona Fall League last year. He was under the micro scope and nothing really popped to me there. Clearly something has changed entering this season. It's the fastball commands, the slider, late break, and the fact that he's getting into all these good counts. He's just as good against righties as he is against lefties, even though the velocity is not anything that stands out too much. It's the characteristics of that fastball and his ability to tunnel those pitches together that is a simple formula that has worked very often for other relievers. It's the kind of player that the Marlins need on their major league bullpen, bullpen that just doesn't have a whole lot of swing and miss when they absolutely need it. I think you could see him in any day now. You could see him moved up to Triple A as well. So and some other relievers that didn't make my top thirty, but at least cross my mind are Andrew Nrdi, another lefty reliever who did get promoted to Jacksonville, and also Anthony Maldonado. I was high on him coming into twenty twenty one, and unfortunately injuries set him back. He is back on track to this point in the season, but Simpson is the one that slips in into my top thirty at twenty eight. I have George Soriano at twenty nine, twenty three year old right hander who's been in the organization a long time, just hasn't really had the endings to pile up until last year and still has some things to iron out with his control as well. So I'm not getting too carried away, but I Squinton, you see a guy that could be a back end starting pitcher. Rounding out the top thirty, I had to make room for infielder, slash outfielder slash, pure hitter Charles LeBlanc. He falls into that category of guys that he's repeating a level he played the previous year, so you can't take all the stats at their word. Otherwise he'd be in the majors right now. If we saw a guy opsing one thousands at TRIPAA and getting on bays virtually every game, playing all these different positions, if you just look at the raw numbers, then you'd think he'd be even higher on the list. I think this is a fair compromise for a guy who's about to turn twenty six. He was unprotected by the Rangers in the minor league phase of the Rule five drafts. It just shows you how low he was regarded by his old organization at that time. It seems it's apparent immediately that the Marlin's got a good value but that minor league pick, and I would think it's extremely likely that we do see LeBlanc in the big leagues before the end of the year, depending on what positions open up due to injury and on him sustaining this a little bit. He really does have a great feel for hitting, it seems, and that is surprising considering how often he struck out at this time just a year ago, playing at the same level, he's been impressive. He I need to give him some love here as a player who could be I don't think he's going to hit home runs in the big leagues, but his versatility is important. We'll see whether he can play shortstop. I was talking to Alex Carver about this. I'm still not convinced that he is a viable defensive shortstop, even in emergency settings, and that's a key ingredient if you're going to be a long time utility player in the majors, a good value. Nonetheless, some players that dropped out of the top thirty Evan Fitterer. I like his pitchability. I like a lot about him. He's just not healthy and he's not efficient right now. Jordan Holloway. I still have him as prospects eligible, but he is somebody that is kind of running out of time and running out of opportunities, partially due to injury. O Cyrus Johnson's still only twenty one years old. It's just that he's not producing whatsoever. He's now had three different cracks at low A and he's a bad first player who doesn't have a bat even though it feels like he should. It just does not translate to game setting. Troy Johnston won the top performers in this minor league system in twenty twenty one. He was just a joy to watch at the plate. I was suspect about his power, especially for a guy that's already at the bottom of the defensive spectrum so far this year, not hitting for power at all, So I think he's just the ceiling is not high enough to justify him cracking the top thirty and Tanner Allen, super popular draft pick coming out of Mississippi State. He was a college star. He's I like watching him hit. I don't see where the power is going to come from. He is smaller than I expected at the plate as well, so we'll wait to see on him. But I have not been wowed by him to match his reputation coming out of Mississippi State. Another update sure to come to this prospect list in just a matter of weeks. Peyton Henry is on the verge of graduating from prospect eligibility by my definition. A couple of these other pictures they get called up. Braxton Garrett could because he seems to be closing in on the rehab trail. He's close to graduating from eligibility as well, and maybe we see a bold trade for this Marlins team. As much as they would like to incorporate so much of these young players into their actual major league roster, you know that's not how it works, especially for a team that has some urgency to be a contending team. They have to use some of these young players in order to solidify their twenty twenty two roster. They might do it so we could see some shake ups there as well in the very near future. Before I leave you, circling back to my number two prospect, Max Meyer. He had been struggling in each of his last two starts, especially the most recent one, getting knocked around for eight runs, simply not locating any of his pitches the way that we're accustomed to doing and getting hit uncharacteristically hard as a result. As first reported by George McPherson of the Miami Herald, he's going on the minor league injured list with an ulnar nerve irritation. He's going to miss at least one start before being re evaluated. Jordan says the organization does not believe it to be a serious injury. That being said, if it is his throwing elbow that is something to keep an eye on, then you can be pretty sure that they're not going to rush him back to the field. This makes it easier to understand his most recent start, where he simply was not throwing the ball like himself, and there was it would seem to be this physical thing holding him back from doing it. There was no circumstance where he was going to be making what like thirty starts this season. It's just there was. Even though they stretch him out quite a bit last year, there was still a gap between that and having a legitimate major league starters workload. This was going to be that gap year, kind of in between. So I guess what you hope is that this is this is true, you know, a very mild situation, and that they're doing this out of an abundance of caution to preserve those endings for later in the year. I've been pretty clear about how I feel about Max being major league ready to this point and as a starter, so it was disappointing that he wasn't called up already, and I feel bad for him that he goes on the minor league al instead of collecting major league paychecks on the MLB IL as well. Nonetheless, fingers crossed that this isn't serious and you know, based on these early indications, I have no reason to move him in my rankings one way or another. Just stay patients with his recovery, and then as soon as he is back and fully recovered, he's going to once again have a rock solid case for contributing to this Marlins major league pitching staff. The Marlins heading into the weekends at seventeen and twenty hosting the Braves, you know, muddled National League East Division, finishing up a long homestand we're gonna have all your coverage in the usual places on Fish Stripes. I'll be back on the other side of the weekends with the new official show. Lots of good stuff come in covering your Marlins team in the heart of the Major league and the minor league season, So I don't be sure to check in more with these minor league pods sporadically throughout the year, and we'll find plenty of written coverage about Marlin's minor league affiliates as well on fishstripes dot com. Thanks as always for listening, Go Fish
Speaker 1: The show goes on. This is the official show on the fish Stripes podcast channel with me Eli Susman, the managing editor of fish Stripes, where we cover your Miami Marlins every day in our own way. Be sure to follow all of our fish Stripes coverage wherever you can get it. Of course, subscribe to the podcast wherever you get your pods to get my official show, fish Stripes Unfiltered, a new one coming up this weekend and throughout the week. We have our small pods with Andrew Bernall and Daniel Rodriguez. On social media, you can find us at fish Stripes on Twitter, on Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, YouTube. We are getting close to my one thousand subscriber goal on YouTube. If everybody that subscribes to the pod right here just does the same thing on YouTube where we have some exclusive content that you won't get here on the pod, then that'd be perfect. That would get us to that milestone. Help us out and go ahead and do that as well. Of course, all the content all the time leads back to Fishstripes dot com. That's the mothership. Go bookmarket, go check it out throughout the season, even during off days like today when I'm recording this even during the off season as well. We are all about the Marlins all the time. The one thing that I haven't really done at length is discuss what I'm seeing from the Marlins minor league system so far in this twenty twenty two season. I weave them into all the Monday official shows naming my prospects of the week, and we work it into almost all of the live streams on Fish Stripes Live as well. But I wanted to take what probably half an hour or so just to ramble, if you will, but hopefully in a useful way, about what I'm seeing from Marlin's prospects. We are just past the one quarter mark of the minor league season this year. The minor league season started right about the same time as the major league one, and it's not quite as long, but it's actually longer than it was, certainly in twenty twenty one, so the sample sizes to this point are already pretty substantial, and coming off what was a pretty normal twenty twenty one season, this is a lot of fun. This is the time where you could draw some more useful conclusions, I believe, from these players than you could during the twenty twenty one season, which came on the heels, of course, of the canceled twenty twenty Minor League season due to COVID. Anyway, so here we are, COVID is not completely out of the picture. In fact, on the Marlin's affiliates had a game postponed due to health and safety protocols. Nonetheless, I feel that we have gleaned so much useful information enough that I was able to update my Marlin's Top thirty prospects list at Fish Stripes. I put it up originally on April fifth, and I keep a pride of it. Look as well, I updated for my own purposes internally how I feel about the top thirty prospects, and I go deeper than that as well. I have some just mists, if you want to be honest, I probably keep almost every single minor leaguer in the Marlins farm system. I've ranked in an arbitrary way, And the reality is that once you get deep enough, far past thirty to fifty, you get to a point where it is really just splitting hairs between these players even during even for a high quality farm system. And I would say that the Marlins farm system is certainly above average relative to the others in Major League Baseball at this moment. With a nice drive class potentially on deck as well, those only go so far. There's only so many players in this farm system that realistically are going to be viable big league players, anything more than replacement level players. And the reason why thirty is such a popular cutoff is that I think you can look at probably thirty guys in this farm system right now now that should be or have a good chance to be better than replacement level players at the big league level. They have a chance to be somebody to play a part, either with the Marlins or with another team. So my updates, almost everybody moved a little bit on this list. You'll be ailit to see the other one. I'm keeping it pins on the fish Stripes homepage to make it easy to find. You could also go to fish stripes dot com slash prospects for a specific section where we focus on the prospects. It's even easier to find that all year long where I stand on the top thirty, The one that was easiest is the top spot. Urie Perez keeping him at number one. He solidified himself as number one to this early point in the year, getting what we thought was an exceptionally aggressive move to go up to double A to start the season to make his double A debut before his nineteenth birthday. Even though the era is still bloated, the peripherals look even better than his outstanding twenty twenty one season. Strikeout rate is up, ground ball rate is up. He's looking spectacular, throwing harder than he was before adding a new slider as well. So what I feel I'd done differently with my prospect list compared to others is I wanted to include game footage of just about everybody, a mix of game footage. In a few cases I just use silly gifts gifts as well, but for the most part, game footage in case you're not able to watch the games on a consistent basis to get a better idea of what these young players are capable of. So in the case of Uri, in the case of Max Meyer, my number two guy, you can go to them their pages and actually see each of their individual pitches and understand what they're trying to accomplish on the mounds. I split up my top thirty in tiers as well, keep it to about six tiers and there could be some flexibility moving forward. I feel at this moment that there are six distinct tiers of Marlin's prospects. It relates closely to what they do at Fangraphs in terms of future value, where you weigh all the factors together when evaluating these players. What I mean by that is, of course they're ceiling, you know, the realistic best case scenario for their careers, their floor. On the other end, the injury risk, the position they play, the room for development's ability to adjust, and intangibles. Mix that all together and come up with doesn't have to be purely scientific. A little art to it as well, with bundling it down to the probabilities of those various outcomes, and once you put it all together, exactly how valuable that player should be. How much they are quote worth as an asset. And I hate to assign that title to a player. The reality is that's kind of what prospects are treated as in professional baseball, trying to weigh how much how likely they are to succeed with you, and whether that's worth actually moving them for a more proven commodity at a certain time. So what that said, one other factor I put in there is the player's roster status if you will, or you know exactly how many minor league options they have left, what position, where they stand on the depth chart in the Marlins organization right now. These things that are frankly out of their control can have a large role in whether or not they are ultimately successful in the majors. What we're trying to do is, yeah, project how much major league value they are going to produce during their careers, and that stuff is not all about talents. There are so many of these miscellaneous factors that go into it as well. I already mentioned Yuri. He is not only the top prospect of the Marlins system, but I do believe he is a tier on his own, that there is a pretty significant gap between him and his potential and everybody else in this farm system ready.
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Speaker 2: To deal the one to two to angular and the pitch check swang gotta one two on the way to Anthony mulryan and the pick swinging a miss strike three ninety eight.
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Speaker 1: Going back to Fangrafts, on a twenty to eighty scouting scale, they try to come up with a single future value number, where fifty is an average starting player at the major league level, and of course eighty is the Mic Trouts of the world, and the twenties are the Isan Diazz of the world. You can never really see that coming with a player, but that's kind of what I mean in terms of somebody that actually hurts the team as well, and I believe the Marlins at this time have it's the top thirty list. I would say about thirty six players in this organization are a forty or higher where I can see them being something more than replacement level players, and they are. They're more beyond that that are worth focusing on in terms of the ones worth prioritizing at the moments, and this thing is pretty fluid. That's kind of where I was at right narrat it down to about thirty six, and I included the six last men out in the write up on fish stripes dot Com as well. If you're interested, I urate in his own tier. I feel that his future value is it's like a high fifty five. Maybe you could look at it as a sixty as a firm above average major league player, where the ceiling the best case scenario is obviously higher than that with how complete he is as a pitcher and although just everything he has working in his favor, how unique he is. Frankly among current major league pictures. He could be a perennial All Star, and what the best picture that the Marlins have had since Jose Fernandez. That's not an exaggeration. There's also, of course, the risk involved with that with any pitcher. That's something that I rest with understanding the way that baseball is handled, the workloads that players receive. Position players at their finests are going to be more important to your team than any individual pitcher. Pitchers just do not have the freedom to work as many endings as they used to. They are handled very carefully because of that, they just aren't quite one. They're not as predictable one year after another, and even at their very best, they don't alter the direction of your franchise quite as much as they used to. That thing said, at this time, I still think the very top of the Marlin system is pitching heavy, and so that speaks to how well they are developing these pitchers and also how there's still something more they need to do in terms of getting the most out of their position player talent. You're a number one. I also have Max in his own tier as well, So I don't think this is going to be typical moving forward to this farm system to have both those players in their own tier. But I think Max is the one other guy in this farm system that is notably above an average player. If I'm projecting forward, I think his future value is above a fifty, a high fifty, maybe a fifty five. Despite what he's done in the last two outings coming into this ranking at the minor league level. That has been well publicized is how much he has struggled in those two outings. It does not really alter my evaluation of him at this time. I think you can see how he how much he has improved even since last season despite the overall stats. He's throwing harder, his change up is better, his slider is exactly what's supposed to be, and he does so many of the little things that I absolutely love, controlling the running game, fielding his position, getting efficient outs, understanding that balance between one and two strike everybody out, and wanting to work deep into games. So we've seen him work deep into games. We've seen him work on four days rest, on regular rest at trip, even though he didn't get much of an opportunity to do that the year before. So that's enough on the on the top end. From here, I'm just going to bounce around to some of the other notable movers that I had in my top thirty. The next tier was Khalil Watson, the infielder top draft pick last year, along with Edward Cabrera, and the outfielders the Kylee. Alferlders from twenty nineteen who are finally knocking on the door to the big leagues, Peyden Burdick, and JJ Blode. I move Berdick ahead of blue Day for the first time this year, and you could read up on why the rest of the list going to tiers four and below. I didn't really write out my thoughts, and that's kind of why I'm recording the podcast, is to focus on some of these other guys that are very notable and can be you can really be huge pieces of the future, even if they're not at the very top of the list. I still have Jake Eeder at number seven, the left hander from the twenty twenty draft who was missing all this year due to Tommy jay On surgery. What he did at Double A in twenty twenty one was absolutely mind blowing, in his professional debut, and with Tommy John surgery, fortunately, it's a little bit more predictable to project, to look at the recovery, and it's safer to assume that a player that undergoes Tommy John will come out on the other side and be either a similar version of themselves or in some cases actually a little bit better if they spend all that downtime focusing on the right things. He's followed by Jose Salas and Ian Lewis. Ian Lewis is one to watch it because he finally got into some games recently earlier this month after staying back at extended spring training, and his numbers are off the charts. So first career to this point, he's hitting like three forty or something around there for a nineteen year old switch hitting infielder. He has really high side. It's just that we need more of a sample before going really overboard. That's somebody that I feel has a lot of helium to them. What else do we have in here? So my criteria for ranking prospects is a little bit different than everybody else's, So I still have label ideas as prospect eligible at number eleven. That's something that's explained in the intro on fish stripes, because the standard that the industry uses is fifty ennings pitched in the major leagues or one hundred and thirty at bats for position players to graduate from prospect eligibility, and I just feel that's kind of an archaic definition that we should standardize it for both position players and pitchers. The magic number that I use is two hundred for batters faced or for played appearances, So in most cases that actually means these guys stay prospect eligible a little longer than the normal system does. And that's you know, so that's my choice. That's something to keep in mind. So for Leywin, the way that the team has been handling him, you know, I'm as frustrated as anybody is about that and why they didn't make arrangements to have him in a semi everyday role entering this season and instead have now had him in the big leagues for exactly one day to this point in the season. Nothing left to prove down in the minor leagues. But I did have to move him down just for this is keeping in mind the factors out of a player's control that he is unlikely to get significant playing time in the majors at least for the next couple months, and that they are using his final minor league option year for Layowen here in twenty twenty two, which means that moving forward, it's it puts him in a position where there's more pressure to perform. He's not going to have that luxury of an option to fall back on. You know, they won't be able to send him down to the minors in a future season if without if you know, he's struggling, and that is sometimes a necessary thing to get the best out of a player. But the way that they've handled him, I think it certainly hurts that. The bottom line is, I think it hurts his likelihood of success. It's disappointing. So I've had him pretty consistently in the past as somewhere between number seven and number nine prospect in the organization, even with a lot of graduations in recent years. For this Marvelin's organization, I've been moving down the list because the longer they keep him down and he continues to do the same things, it's not a limitless clock that you have to prove yourself, especially at a position like first base, and then the next one in that area that I want to touch on is six dough Sanchez, who you know, I've been extremely high on in the past before his injury and even early after his shoulder injury in twenty twenty one. So he's now at this point fourteen months removed from facing live hitters, and he still has a ways to go before he's able to do that again. But I kept him on the list at least in the top thirty because he has made some progress with his throwing program. Most recent report up to ninety feet, which is something that he didn't reach last year prior to undergoing his surgery. So they're being very methodical, as is the case with Langwin. They are you know, the clock is ticking. This is his final option year as well. So when six zero comes back, whether it's towards the end of this season or in twenty twenty three, it's just he is in an uncomfortable position. They are not prioritizing him. They're not making him a priority for this organization, even though they were just a couple of years ago, and with him obviously coming off this injury, I needed to dock him for that. It's different than Tommy John. It's not as routine when they go inside the shoulder and repair a tear there. As we've seen with his recovery, it has taken longer than a typical Tommy John would recover. The expectation of all his stuff coming back to what it used to be. That's no guarantee either. It is far from a guarantee that six to oh is sitting ninety eight ninety nine with his fastball velocity on the other side of the shoulder injury. I still think that the upside and all the traits that he has as a starting pitcher or give him a nice upside that not many players in this organization had the upside of six to do if he does put it back together and if everything between his ears is pushing in the right direction. It's no secret that the team has had concerns about his focus, about his motivation, about his work ethic, and I think all those have been fair concerns at this point. And that goes into whether he'll be the best version of himself once his body permits him to be. The rest of this top thirty some other notables they want to point out, is the biggest riser on this list since the start of the season Harra and Karnacion. He started this year repeating double a Pensacola. That's something that's a red flag for me. When a player starts one season at a level, spends most of the season at that level, and then repeats it the next year. It just means I wouldn't say a red flag. I would say it changes the way I interpret their performance. So her last year at Pensacola, he was a slightly below league average hitter. He's a well below average defender at the corner outfield spots and at first base. He's a slow runner, and he also got hurt during that year as well. The underlying stats were really scary, the spike and his strikeout rate. He was striking out more than a third of the time I think was thirty eight percent of the time in twenty twenty one. That's the kind of number that over a considerable sample, that's a red flag because it's unlikely for a player to be whipping that often against minor league pitching and to be expecting anything different once they eventually get to the major leagues. To his credit, he has looked absolutely phenomenal so far this season. He was leading the farm system in home runs prior to his promotion to Triple A and just in the past few days as I'm recording this, he got home runs in each of his first two Triple A Jacksonville games, one of them a no doubter to the opposite field. How often do you hear that? It was about fifteen rows deep to right field for this right handed hitter.
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Speaker 2: To two and then Carnassi owned swings puts a charge into that one, back up the track and right field. That one is on a here well, first triple A home run for Yerar and Carnacion, and Jacksonville's on the board here in the bottom of.
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Speaker 1: The eighth in it. And the next day the only offense for Jacksonville on Wednesday was a tank to left field that he pulled. They said the track man estimate was four hundred and thirty three feet. I made a whole highlight reel of him that's available on our YouTube channel of his longest home runs, and if I went back and edited that video now, I'd have to include his most recent one. He does have special power. During his breakout season of twenty nineteen, I did liken him to someone like Garrett Cooper. I think there's a lot in common with Cooper on all really every element. He's about that kind of humongous size and has some of the same concerns as well in terms of durability, in terms of defensive fit. And he's on the forty man roster, so his clock is ticking a little bit as well in terms of when they'll get opportunities and if those opportunities are not coming in Miami in the near term future. Considering all the veterans, all the veteran right handed mashers on this roster, then I this is something that Alex Carver Fish on the pharm I suggested it is exactly whether he'd be best used as a trade ship during this summer or at the end of the year, because he doesn't have a whole lot left to prove in the minors. Now that he has bounced back looking very much like that exciting prospect that he was in twenty nineteen, someone that was unranked in my top thirty coming off the year that he had, and I'm seeing a lot of the things that I loved about him a few years ago to restore that faith in him in that same area of the list. This is what Harrar is in tier five. Yeah, so the division I have is right after six to six Dough. I have him at the end of the fourth tier of players, ones who right close to a fifty future value just a little bit below, and then so that next list's other guys that if they were to become average big league regulars, then that's a win. None of these guys beyond the top twelve I think you should be penciling in as starting players. That's just the reality of player development is that everybody from Joe Mack and Victor Mason, Junior, Yeadicape, Zach mccamberly on down, these guys are exciting for a variety of reasons. It's just that as overall players, there are enough obstacles that they have to overcome. In my opinion, this is all my opinion, of course, to be to be stars in the big leagues, to be even like stable starters in the big leagues. We have Ancharnasion at eighteen. Paul McIntosh I put him at number twenty three, the catcher, undrafted free agent less than one year ago, mashed for low Way Jupiter, really impressed during spring training and got bumped up right to double a Pensacola playing against competition his own age, and continues to hit really well, continues to run surprisingly well for a catcher, and defensively behind the plate. A lot of the results that you're seeing from the Pensacola team speak for themselves. That was a team that got to a relatively slow start, and as I'm talking about them, are in the midst of one of the longest winning streaks in the minors. Pitching exceptionally well, not just like prime ticket, prime talent starters like Perez, but also all these relievers that are having career years at their pen and more often than not throwing to McIntosh. So he's doing really well on all sides of the ball, and the way he impacts the ball and hits it to all fields is exciting. You don't see that very often from catchers as well. I think there's a pretty strong chance that he has a big career in a significant one as well, and one that could start in the relatively near future. Some other guys breaking through. Brian Hoeing I put him at number twenty six, made some fascinating adjustments coming off last year. In twenty twenty one, he led all my Marlins minor leaguers and innings pitched. It's just that the actual effectiveness of those innings wasn't anything to write home about. Got promoted to double A, got to such an extraordinary start that they moved him to Jacksonville as well. Right now, I think he's a really well rounded pitcher that has some true rotation upside. At number twenty eight, I went with Josh Simpson. I wanted to make sure to stick him in. He is one of those Pensacola relievers that is having a career year. He is having as good a year as any reliever in minor league baseball, as well as anybody in Major League Baseball as well. He's been pretty much perfect. He has not allowed a run in eighteen and two thirds endings pitched. He gives me very strong Alex Vesia vibes. Of course, Vesia was dominant across every level of the Marlins minor league system, and shortly after debuting got traded to the Dodgers. Since then, he has gone on to become a really useful middle reliever for them. It's always tricky to know exactly where to slot relievers in prospect rankings alongside players that you know are going to be on the field on the mounds a lot more often than them. But in my opinion, certainly in the back half of a top thirty, even in this Marlins farm system, that you can put a reliever there if you feel very confident in what they're going to bring and that's going to translate to the majors. There's few things that are easier to translate than you swing and miss relievers in the minors and how they'll do in the majors. And I think Simpson this has sort of come out of nowhere because he was at the Arizona Fall League last year. He was under the micro scope and nothing really popped to me there. Clearly something has changed entering this season. It's the fastball commands, the slider, late break, and the fact that he's getting into all these good counts. He's just as good against righties as he is against lefties, even though the velocity is not anything that stands out too much. It's the characteristics of that fastball and his ability to tunnel those pitches together that is a simple formula that has worked very often for other relievers. It's the kind of player that the Marlins need on their major league bullpen, bullpen that just doesn't have a whole lot of swing and miss when they absolutely need it. I think you could see him in any day now. You could see him moved up to Triple A as well. So and some other relievers that didn't make my top thirty, but at least cross my mind are Andrew Nrdi, another lefty reliever who did get promoted to Jacksonville, and also Anthony Maldonado. I was high on him coming into twenty twenty one, and unfortunately injuries set him back. He is back on track to this point in the season, but Simpson is the one that slips in into my top thirty at twenty eight. I have George Soriano at twenty nine, twenty three year old right hander who's been in the organization a long time, just hasn't really had the endings to pile up until last year and still has some things to iron out with his control as well. So I'm not getting too carried away, but I Squinton, you see a guy that could be a back end starting pitcher. Rounding out the top thirty, I had to make room for infielder, slash outfielder slash, pure hitter Charles LeBlanc. He falls into that category of guys that he's repeating a level he played the previous year, so you can't take all the stats at their word. Otherwise he'd be in the majors right now. If we saw a guy opsing one thousands at TRIPAA and getting on bays virtually every game, playing all these different positions, if you just look at the raw numbers, then you'd think he'd be even higher on the list. I think this is a fair compromise for a guy who's about to turn twenty six. He was unprotected by the Rangers in the minor league phase of the Rule five drafts. It just shows you how low he was regarded by his old organization at that time. It seems it's apparent immediately that the Marlin's got a good value but that minor league pick, and I would think it's extremely likely that we do see LeBlanc in the big leagues before the end of the year, depending on what positions open up due to injury and on him sustaining this a little bit. He really does have a great feel for hitting, it seems, and that is surprising considering how often he struck out at this time just a year ago, playing at the same level, he's been impressive. He I need to give him some love here as a player who could be I don't think he's going to hit home runs in the big leagues, but his versatility is important. We'll see whether he can play shortstop. I was talking to Alex Carver about this. I'm still not convinced that he is a viable defensive shortstop, even in emergency settings, and that's a key ingredient if you're going to be a long time utility player in the majors, a good value. Nonetheless, some players that dropped out of the top thirty Evan Fitterer. I like his pitchability. I like a lot about him. He's just not healthy and he's not efficient right now. Jordan Holloway. I still have him as prospects eligible, but he is somebody that is kind of running out of time and running out of opportunities, partially due to injury. O Cyrus Johnson's still only twenty one years old. It's just that he's not producing whatsoever. He's now had three different cracks at low A and he's a bad first player who doesn't have a bat even though it feels like he should. It just does not translate to game setting. Troy Johnston won the top performers in this minor league system in twenty twenty one. He was just a joy to watch at the plate. I was suspect about his power, especially for a guy that's already at the bottom of the defensive spectrum so far this year, not hitting for power at all, So I think he's just the ceiling is not high enough to justify him cracking the top thirty and Tanner Allen, super popular draft pick coming out of Mississippi State. He was a college star. He's I like watching him hit. I don't see where the power is going to come from. He is smaller than I expected at the plate as well, so we'll wait to see on him. But I have not been wowed by him to match his reputation coming out of Mississippi State. Another update sure to come to this prospect list in just a matter of weeks. Peyton Henry is on the verge of graduating from prospect eligibility by my definition. A couple of these other pictures they get called up. Braxton Garrett could because he seems to be closing in on the rehab trail. He's close to graduating from eligibility as well, and maybe we see a bold trade for this Marlins team. As much as they would like to incorporate so much of these young players into their actual major league roster, you know that's not how it works, especially for a team that has some urgency to be a contending team. They have to use some of these young players in order to solidify their twenty twenty two roster. They might do it so we could see some shake ups there as well in the very near future. Before I leave you, circling back to my number two prospect, Max Meyer. He had been struggling in each of his last two starts, especially the most recent one, getting knocked around for eight runs, simply not locating any of his pitches the way that we're accustomed to doing and getting hit uncharacteristically hard as a result. As first reported by George McPherson of the Miami Herald, he's going on the minor league injured list with an ulnar nerve irritation. He's going to miss at least one start before being re evaluated. Jordan says the organization does not believe it to be a serious injury. That being said, if it is his throwing elbow that is something to keep an eye on, then you can be pretty sure that they're not going to rush him back to the field. This makes it easier to understand his most recent start, where he simply was not throwing the ball like himself, and there was it would seem to be this physical thing holding him back from doing it. There was no circumstance where he was going to be making what like thirty starts this season. It's just there was. Even though they stretch him out quite a bit last year, there was still a gap between that and having a legitimate major league starters workload. This was going to be that gap year, kind of in between. So I guess what you hope is that this is this is true, you know, a very mild situation, and that they're doing this out of an abundance of caution to preserve those endings for later in the year. I've been pretty clear about how I feel about Max being major league ready to this point and as a starter, so it was disappointing that he wasn't called up already, and I feel bad for him that he goes on the minor league al instead of collecting major league paychecks on the MLB IL as well. Nonetheless, fingers crossed that this isn't serious and you know, based on these early indications, I have no reason to move him in my rankings one way or another. Just stay patients with his recovery, and then as soon as he is back and fully recovered, he's going to once again have a rock solid case for contributing to this Marlins major league pitching staff. The Marlins heading into the weekends at seventeen and twenty hosting the Braves, you know, muddled National League East Division, finishing up a long homestand we're gonna have all your coverage in the usual places on Fish Stripes. I'll be back on the other side of the weekends with the new official show. Lots of good stuff come in covering your Marlins team in the heart of the Major league and the minor league season, So I don't be sure to check in more with these minor league pods sporadically throughout the year, and we'll find plenty of written coverage about Marlin's minor league affiliates as well on fishstripes dot com. Thanks as always for listening, Go Fish
