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How Much Risk Where?

Over the four-plus decades since Americans last braced against a high-inflation environment, investors have seen interest rates sink to fresh lows and rise to lower peaks with each successive economic cycle. Rates are well off recent depths on account of ongoing efforts to ease upward price pressur…
Most years see some manner of substantial decline in stocks, even as most full-year tallies turn out positive. This year has proved an exception to that tendency. Thus far, at least—there’s still about a month to go. With stocks well off the trough for the year, but still far from their peak at the…

Bad News is Good News?

Many trends suggest progress has been made against inflation, which remains historically elevated across most of the globe. And though mixed in their estimates for how quickly and to what level inflation will fall, survey- and market-based measures for future inflation reflect expectations for a r…

Contrary Cues

In recent months we’ve sought to highlight the notion that investment markets are forward-looking, meaning that they tend to reflect aggregate investor views as to where global economies and the countries and companies that operate within them are heading, rather than where they’ve been. But what d…

Changes at the Margin

Seems reasonable to expect that corporate earnings are likely to fall on account of inflation-induced weaker profitability and a slowdown in revenue growth. The growth-stall is likely to stem in part from the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame that margin-crushing inflation, as the Fed directly inte…
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