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The Cost of Capital Climbs

In this week’s podcast, Andy talks with Sharmila Whelan from Westbourne Research. Long-term interest rates are back near two-decade highs. The short end has eased as soft US data pare back Fed tightening bets, but the long end keeps climbing on deeper, structural forces. Many of this week’s charts…
In this episode, Andy Cates is joined by Daniel Jerrett, PhD — founder of SmartMacro Labs and Haver's official training partner — to get past the noise around AI and ask what the technology actually changes for economists and investment teams. They discuss why most teams are stuck in a prompt loop …

The Turn Towards Tightening

Central banks set the tone this week. After Warsh's first Jackson Hole address, and with the ECB expected to move again, the monetary tide is turning towards tightening — even as growth slows. The week in six charts: → Forecasters expect higher rates in most major economies → Shipping and supply-…
The global economy has held up better than a noisy summer might suggest, with tensions in the Middle East, intervention to steady the yen, and nerves over AI spending all unsettling sentiment — yet the data have stayed firm and the pressure on interest rates has been upward, not down. In this week'…
The real economy has refused to buckle. Through a year of tariffs, conflict and tighter money, global growth has held up — and firmer growth has sat naturally alongside higher yields. Indeed, what stands out is why those yields are climbing: almost entirely the real rate and behind it the deeper qu…
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