Fred & Drea Warner: the critical question now is the short-term question. How does the industry survive between now and 2030? How does it get over the hurdle of the coming years?
Inperson 1: the critical question now is the short-term question. How does the industry survive between now and 2030? How does it get over the hurdle of the coming years?
Fred & Drea Warner: I also believe it's a precursor to most people feel big brother monitoring because the next argument will be well, in order to accurately monitor this, we need to put a little box in your car and you need to be telling us exactly how many miles you're doing, which is then a precursor to being, well, now we know exactly where you are, how fast you're going, when you're speeding, when you're not. And it feels like it's just an excuse of a precursor to more control in the future.
Inperson 1: I also believe it's a precursor to most people feel big brother monitoring because the next argument will be well, in order to accurately monitor this, we need to put a little box in your car and you need to be telling us exactly how many miles you're doing, which is then a precursor to being, well, now we know exactly where you are, how fast you're going, when you're speeding, when you're not. And it feels like it's just an excuse of a precursor to more control in the future.
Fred & Drea Warner: But government just saying, well, we've chosen the technology. This is the technology. Everybody has to use it, irrespective of what the customer wants. That's never going to work.
Inperson 1: But government just saying, well, we've chosen the technology. This is the technology. Everybody has to use it, irrespective of what the customer wants. That's never going to work.
Fred & Drea Warner: And I think if you applied that approach in other industries, it would feel a bit ludicrous. Probably people in this country should be eating more fruit and vegetables, but we don't say to Sainsbury's 50 % of your sales has to be apples.
Inperson 1: And I think if you applied that approach in other industries, it would feel a bit ludicrous. Probably people in this country should be eating more fruit and vegetables, but we don't say to Sainsbury's 50 % of your sales has to be apples.
Fred & Drea Warner: it creates a monopoly because if there's only a couple of players in the market and they're private, you're now into a monopoly situation where they can influence the price to their benefit, not the consumer benefit.
Inperson 1: it creates a monopoly because if there's only a couple of players in the market and they're private, you're now into a monopoly situation where they can influence the price to their benefit, not the consumer benefit.
Fred & Drea Warner: and I believe that that is a discussion point that says, why don't we protect the users a little bit more and cap how much margin?
Inperson 1: and I believe that that is a discussion point that says, why don't we protect the users a little bit more and cap how much margin?
Fred & Drea Warner: the private companies are allowed to boot onto people I really passionately feel that the little person, the everyday person that earns the least wages is getting stiffed the most.
Inperson 1: the private companies are allowed to boot onto people I really passionately feel that the little person, the everyday person that earns the least wages is getting stiffed the most.
Fred & Drea Warner: And what we would say is picking an arbitrary date to completely end the sale of non-ZEVs.
Inperson 1: And what we would say is picking an arbitrary date to completely end the sale of non-ZEVs.
Fred & Drea Warner: doesn't really feel right. quote our colleagues over at Toyota, their view is carbon is the enemy, not the powertrain. So we need to be doing everything we can to make sure the consumer has access to
Inperson 1: doesn't really feel right. quote our colleagues over at Toyota, their view is carbon is the enemy, not the powertrain. So we need to be doing everything we can to make sure the consumer has access to
Fred & Drea Warner: the lower or sustainable powertrain that works for them,
Inperson 1: the lower or sustainable powertrain that works for them,
Fred & Drea Warner: Hello everybody and welcome to another episode of Future Engineering Bets where we talk about advanced engineering and its applications in the future in automotive and mobility, electrification, and in particular where people are going to be investing their capital.
Inperson 1: everybody and welcome to another episode of Future Engineering Bets where we talk about advanced engineering and its applications in the future in automotive and mobility, electrification, and in particular where people are going to be investing their capital.
Fred & Drea Warner: and wondering about what's going to happen in the future. Today, I'm very excited to be joined by Patrick Keating of Honda Europe, and he's the head of external affairs at Honda Europe. Patrick, welcome to the show. Thank you very much. Excited to be here. Thank you. And we're very excited to talk with you. We're at a very interesting point in the electrification journey in that the UK government is about to review the ZEV mandate that's really seen as crushing the
Inperson 1: and wondering about what's going to happen in the future. Today, I'm very excited to be joined by Patrick Keating of Honda Europe, and he's the head of external affairs at Honda Europe. Patrick, welcome to the show. Thank you very much. Excited to be here. Thank you. And we're very excited to talk with you. We're at a very interesting point in the electrification journey in that the UK government is about to review the ZEV mandate that's really seen as crushing the
Fred & Drea Warner: automotive OEMs at the moment in Europe and the UK. Can you tell me a bit about what you're thinking as we come up to this space? Yeah, it's a really timely question. So we expect government to announce a consultation on reviewing the mandate in the coming days. that's something that manufacturers have been asking for for probably over a year now. We're seeing really a disconnect between the growth of EV sales in the market in the real world and the trajectory that set
Inperson 1: automotive OEMs at the moment in Europe and the UK. Can you tell me a bit about what you're thinking as we come up to this space? Yeah, it's a really timely question. So we expect government to announce a consultation on reviewing the mandate in the coming days. that's something that manufacturers have been asking for for probably over a year now. We're seeing really a disconnect between the growth of EV sales in the market in the real world and the trajectory that set
Fred & Drea Warner: in this UK regulation. EV sales are growing and that's brilliant, that's great. This is not an anti-EV pitch. It's about making sure that the rules and the targets that we have to meet on the supply side match what people actually want out there in the market. And I think the new government is realising there is a gap and closing that gap is putting a lot of costs onto manufacturers, not just UK manufacturers, but anybody active in the UK market. That's pressing down on competitiveness.
Inperson 1: in this UK regulation. EV sales are growing and that's brilliant, that's great. This is not an anti-EV pitch. It's about making sure that the rules and the targets that we have to meet on the supply side match what people actually want out there in the market. And I think the new government is realising there is a and closing that gap is putting a lot of costs on to manufacturers, not just UK manufacturers, but anybody active in the UK market. That's pressing down on competitiveness.
Fred & Drea Warner: it's not a good deal for the automotive industry. a pragmatic approach, looking at those targets, looking at what we have to achieve between now and 2030. What does 2035 look like when there's this supposed ban on internal combustion engines? Just stepping back, taking a beat, and having a think, does this work? But not just does the regulation on the supply side work, but what about all the other levers in terms of demands, incentives, charging, infrastructure? Just consumer appetite. Are all those on track as well?
Inperson 1: is not a good deal for the automotive industry. a pragmatic approach, looking at those targets, looking at what we have to achieve between now and 2030. What does 2035 look like when there's this supposed ban on internal combustion engines? Just stepping back, taking a beat, and having a think, does this work? But not just does the regulation on the supply side work, but what about all the other levers in terms of demands, incentives, charging, infrastructure? Just consumer appetite. Are all those on track as well?
Fred & Drea Warner: really hoping to have a good and sort of open discussion with government in the coming weeks about how we make sure this set of legislation actually works and meets the real world. It's very challenging times for automotive OEMs and has been recently and just for the sake of the listener I'm going to quote a few sort of mandate items so they get an appreciation. So in 2035 the UK mandated that all vehicles have to be ZEV which is zero emission vehicles.
Inperson 1: really hoping to have a good and sort of open discussion with government in the coming weeks about how we make sure this set of legislation actually works and meets the real world. It's very challenging times for automotive OEMs and has been recently and I just for the sake of the listener I'm going to quote a few sort of mandate items so they get an appreciation. So in 2035 the UK mandated that all vehicles have to be ZEV which is zero emission vehicles.
Fred & Drea Warner: interesting, we'll come on to Europe shifted and we'll talk about that. But really 2026 you're expected to hit 33 % sales when you're actually around about 25%. Noting that 25 % is pretty good. But then you're also faced with fines for vehicles that don't meet the mandates of around 12,000 pound a vehicle, maybe 15,000 pound a van, which are very punitive measures for automotive. So
Inperson 1: interesting, we'll come on to Europe shifted and we'll talk about that. But really 2026 you're expected to hit 33 % sales when you're actually around about 25%. Noting that 25 % is pretty good. Let's not be faced. But then you're also faced with fines for vehicles that don't meet the mandates of around 12,000 pound of vehicle, maybe 15,000 pound van, which are very punitive measures for automotive. So
Fred & Drea Warner: When you're looking at this cycle of between now and 2035 and look, asking for a rethink, some people say, just lighten it up until 2030, but stick with the 2035 zero emission mandate. We're gonna talk around a few topics such as hybrids, fuel cell, e-fuels in this episode. What's your thoughts when people say, it's okay, just deal with the next two or three years as a short-termism, but keep the long-term goal?
Inperson 1: When you're looking at this cycle of between now and 2035 and look, asking for a rethink, some people say, just lighten it up until 2030, but stick with the 2035 zero emission mandate. We're gonna talk around a few topics such as hybrids, fuel cell, e-fuels in this episode. What's your thoughts when people say, it's okay, just deal with the next two or three years as a short-termism, but keep the long-term goal?
Fred & Drea Warner: I think you have to look at both questions. the critical question now is the short-term question. How does the industry survive between now and 2030? How does it get over the hurdle of the coming years? So that's the critical question. But you're right to look at the longer term. Automotive is an industry that works on long time scales. 2035 is basically tomorrow. And what we would say is picking an arbitrary date to completely end the sale of non-ZEVs.
Inperson 1: I think you have to look at both questions. the critical question now is the short-term question. How does the industry survive between now and 2030? How does it get over the hurdle of the coming years? So that's the critical question. But you're right to look at the longer term. Automotive is an industry that works on long time scales. 2035 is basically tomorrow. And what we would say is picking an arbitrary date to completely end the sale of non-ZEVs.
Fred & Drea Warner: doesn't really feel right. think what we would say is do the review now, look at the short term, but continue to review the regulation as we move towards 2030, as we move beyond 2030 to 2035. On a broader sense, Honda has always said we prefer what we call a multi-pathway approach. So quote our colleagues over at Toyota, their view is carbon is the enemy, not the powertrain. So we need to be doing everything we can to make sure the consumer has access to
Inperson 1: doesn't really feel right. think what we would say is do the review now, look at the short term, but continue to review the regulation as we move towards 2030, as we move beyond 2030 to 2035. On a broader sense, Honda has always said we prefer what we call a multi-pathway approach. So quote our colleagues over at Toyota, their view is carbon is the enemy, not the powertrain. So we need to be doing everything we can to make sure the consumer has access to
Fred & Drea Warner: the lower or sustainable powertrain that works for them, whether that's for some it'll be a hybrid, for others a plug-in, for some an electric vehicle. And sort of pulling a lever and saying 2035, the only thing you can buy is an EV, doesn't feel like it's very consumer oriented. It feels like 2035 is a bit of an abstract target. We need to keep on reviewing as we move towards that point. Yeah, and it's not just that it doesn't work for all the consumers, it's that there's a number of consumers in more edge cases.
Inperson 1: the lower or sustainable powertrain that works for them, whether that's for some it'll be a hybrid, for others a plug-in, for some an electric vehicle. And sort of pulling a lever and saying 2035, the only thing you can buy is an EV, doesn't feel like it's very consumer oriented. It feels like 2035 is a bit of an abstract target. We need to keep on reviewing as we move towards that point. Yeah, and it's not just that it doesn't work for all the consumers, it's that there's a number of consumers in more edge cases.
Fred & Drea Warner: that simply won't have a solution in 2035 that just hasn't been considered because the mandate's really been made around people living in towns with the need of small cars. Yeah, I think if at the current moment you're lucky enough to live in a home with off-street parking, your own driveway or another solution, you have a deal with an energy company that gives you cheap day-night charging or agile charging, then an EV's perfect.
Inperson 1: that simply won't have a solution in 2035 that just hasn't been considered because the mandate's really been made around people living in towns with the need of small cars. Yeah, I think at the current moment you're lucky enough to live in a home with off-street parking, your own driveway or another solution, you have a deal with an energy company that gives you cheap day-night charging or agile charging, then an EV's perfect.
Fred & Drea Warner: But if you're like me, you live in the countryside, my commute is 100 miles each way, so I'm doing a 200 mile round trip. I have the ability to charge at home, but I'm driving a plug-in hybrid now, so I have the ability to charge at home, get cheap miles, free electric miles, my job's around where I live. And then when I come into Bracknell, I can rely on the petrol engine to get me there and back without worrying about plugging in and charging. And I think there's always gonna be those edge cases. think sometimes, as you said, we're thinking,
Inperson 1: But if you're like me, you live in the countryside, my commute is 100 miles way, so I'm doing a 200 mile round trip. have the ability to charge at home, but I'm driving a plug-in hybrid now, so I have the ability to charge at home, get cheap miles, free electric miles, my job's around where I live. And then when I come into Bracknell, I can rely on the petrol engine to get me there and back without worrying about plugging in and charging. And I think there's always gonna be those edge cases. think sometimes, as you said, we're thinking,
Fred & Drea Warner: about this policy in the context of people living in cities. But I grew up in Scotland, which can have some pretty wild and remote places where maybe there isn't going to be easy access to charging. But also, Honda, we're thinking more globally. So in Europe, think we're quite lucky to be fairly affluent to have the ability to put in place charging. But I think there's parts of the world where charging infrastructure is just never going to come down the road. And we need to be thinking about those technologies that port people's.
Inperson 1: about this policy in the context of people living in cities. But grew up in Scotland, which can have some pretty wild and remote places where maybe there isn't going to be easy access to charging. But also, Honda, we're thinking more globally. So in Europe, think we're quite lucky to be fairly affluent to have the ability to put in place charging. But I think there's parts of the world where charging infrastructure is just never going to come down the road. And we need to be thinking about those technologies that port people's.
Fred & Drea Warner: mobility because at the end of the day it's about ensuring that people can be mobile they can get around and live their lives do their jobs in an affordable and accessible way. Yeah and I think it's a really interesting point when we go into Europe that this is a global challenge and to think about it in a very isolated way which currently the UK looks like it's quite isolated doesn't seem very pragmatic and it's very relevant to say that a huge proportion of the world will never end up
Inperson 1: mobility because at the end of the day it's about ensuring that people can be mobile they can get around and live their lives do their in an affordable and accessible way. Yeah and I think it's a really interesting point when we go into Europe that this is a global challenge and to think about it in a very isolated way which currently the UK looks like it's quite isolated doesn't seem very pragmatic and it's very relevant to say that a huge proportion of the world will never end up
Fred & Drea Warner: with a significant EV charging infrastructure and will likely end upon some form of synthetic e-fuel or hybrid powertrain, likely being, and not a plug-in hybrid powertrain, in order to support their long-term needs. So going a totally different direction to the whole global community when you take it as a single piece doesn't necessarily make sense for the UK people, UK population long-term, because that likely means the UK cost of living is going to be pushed up as they end up in a different place to everybody else.
Inperson 1: with a significant EV charging infrastructure and will likely end upon some form of synthetic e-fuel or hybrid powertrain, likely being, and not a plug-in hybrid powertrain, in order to support their long-term needs. So going a totally different direction to the whole global community when you take it as a single piece doesn't necessarily make sense for the UK people, UK population long-term, because that likely means the UK cost of living is going to be pushed up as they end up in a different place to everybody else.
Fred & Drea Warner: Yeah, think you're right to look at the global picture. And I think the global picture has changed so much in the last few years, particularly looking at North America. So for a lot of OEMs, North America is a large market. A lot of companies are thinking, how do we supply EV into the North American market? Obviously, under the new administration, it's not that new anymore. There's been significant rule change, which means a lot of investment's been postponed or reallocated, which means there are fewer EVs in the supply.
Inperson 1: Yeah, think you're right to look at the global picture. And I think the global picture has changed so much in the last few years, particularly looking at North America. So for a lot of OEMs, North America is a large market. A lot of companies are thinking, how do we supply EV into the North American market? Obviously, under the new administration, it's not that new anymore. There's been significant rule change, which means a lot of investment's been postponed or reallocated, which means there are fewer EVs in the supply.
Fred & Drea Warner: which means potentially it's harder to supply EV into the UK market from global sources. And I think that applies across the board, which again, when we're looking at the ZEV mandate review, there's a very different global picture around the economics of EV supply chains than there was a few years ago when this regulation was being put into force. So I think again, that's why government needs to take account of it. As you say, there'll be different powertrains that work for different parts of the world.
Inperson 1: means potentially it's harder to supply EV into the UK market from global sources. And I think that applies across the board, which again, when we're looking at the ZEV mandate review, there's a very different global picture around the economics of EV supply chains than there was a few years ago when this regulation was being put into force. So I think again, that's why government needs to take account of it. As you say, there'll be different powertrains that work for different parts of the world.
Fred & Drea Warner: I don't know, in Sub-Saharan Africa or Kazakhstan, you're going to have a very different approach to this than somebody who happens to live in London or Amsterdam or Paris and has access to all this great infrastructure charging. So that's why, again, we can't rule out any technology or any powertrain. I think we need to keep on looking at all the opportunities and not just myopically focus on pure battery electric, which is, again, a great technology. has a definitely, you the future is electric.
Inperson 1: I don't know, in Sub-Saharan Africa or Kazakhstan, you're going to have a very different approach to this than somebody who happens to live in London or Amsterdam or Paris and has access to all this great infrastructure charging. So that's why, again, we can't rule out any technology or any powertrain. I think we need to keep on looking at all the opportunities and not just myopically focus on pure battery electric, which is, again, a great technology. has a definitely, you the future is electric.
Fred & Drea Warner: for most people, but not necessarily for everyone. And it's interesting when you talk about that, when you look at Europe, they've shifted their policies from 100 % mandate in 2035 to a 90%, which allows this flexibility in powertrain options. Honda's had to go through one of the largest write downs in its history, one of the first years, I think, in its history that it made a loss overall as a global organisation. When people set in place these regulations and the automotive companies lined up with them,
Inperson 1: for most people, but not necessarily for everyone. And it's interesting when you talk about that, when you look at Europe, they've shifted their policies from 100 % mandate in 2035 to a 90%, which allows this flexibility in powertrain options. Honda's had to go through one of the largest write downs in its history, one of the first years, I think, in its history that it made a loss overall as a global organisation. When people set in place these regulations and the automotive companies lined up with them,
Fred & Drea Warner: and set their product development cycles to line up with them. The lack of alignment with the consumer demand was not necessarily considered by all the automotive OEMs in so much as they assumed that everyone would be buying in accordance with government targets. They'd not. That's left the automotive OEMs carrying the loss. And that write down has been absolutely massive. know partly because in North America you've had to write off plans of selling cars in Europe. Sales have been behind.
Inperson 1: and set their product development cycles to line up with them. The lack of alignment with the consumer demand was not necessarily considered by all the automotive OEMs in so much as they assumed that everyone would be buying in accordance with government targets. They'd not. That's left the automotive OEMs carrying the loss. And that write down has been absolutely massive. know partly because in North America you've had to write off plans of selling cars in Europe. Sales have been behind.
Fred & Drea Warner: Where does it sit for you in terms of seeing the European mandate shift? Has it got to a place that you think this is practical? And if we want to align with it, would you make further improvements to the European mandate as well? Yeah, I think we would look. in Europe, it's still a live discussion. So we've seen a proposal from the Commission to give us that 90 % target in 2035. But that 10 % reduction is actually in the initial proposal.
Inperson 1: Where does it sit for you in terms of seeing the European mandate shift? Has it got to a place that you think this is practical? And if we want to align with it, would you make further improvements to the European mandate as well? Yeah, I think we would look. in Europe, it's still a live discussion. So we've seen a proposal from the Commission to give us that 90 % target in 2035. But that 10 % reduction is actually in the initial proposal.
Fred & Drea Warner: Surrounded by all sorts of conditionality so you can get that reduction of you use green steel Whatever that says there's a lot of connection between getting flexibilities under the European regulation with this idea of EVs being made in Europe So a little bit of a protectionist approach so on looking at the tin It seemed like 90% bit of flexibility bit of pragmatism But when you open up and start to look at the detail, it's not quite as rosy a story so one of the things that we
Inperson 1: Surrounded by all sorts of conditionality so you can get that reduction of you use green steel Whatever that says there's a lot of connection between getting flexibilities under the European regulation with this idea of EV's being made in Europe So a little bit of a protectionist approach so on looking at the tin It seemed like 90 % bit of flexibility bird pragmatism But when you open up and start to look at the detail, it's not quite as rosy a story so one of the things that we
Fred & Drea Warner: by we, mean the entire industry in Brussels have been working on is as that proposal goes through the regulatory process and the rulemaking process, trying to push a little bit more to say, we remove some of those conditions or make them a little bit more reasonable so that 90 % reduction is really a reduction to 90 % rather than something that's just a bit cosmetic. And I think rulemakers in Brussels understand that if you look at the news, see
Inperson 1: by we, mean the entire industry in Brussels have been working on is as that proposal goes through the regulatory process and the rulemaking process, trying to push a little bit more to say, we remove some of those conditions or make them a little bit more reasonable so that 90 % reduction is really a reduction to 90 % rather than something that's just a bit cosmetic. And I think rulemakers in Brussels understand that if you look at the news, see
Fred & Drea Warner: job losses in Germany, the industry across Europe is under significant pressure. And I think the policymakers, particularly in the European Parliament, are starting to understand that. through the rest of 2026, hopefully we'll see those rules in Europe become much more pragmatic, much more open, and open to a range of technologies and a range of power trains, not just being purely focused on EV.
Inperson 1: job losses in Germany, the industry across Europe is under significant pressure. And I think the policymakers, particularly in the European Parliament, are starting to understand that. 2026, hopefully we'll see those rules in Europe become much more pragmatic, much more open, and open to a range of technologies and a range of power trains, not just being purely focused on EV.
Fred & Drea Warner: And it would be great if the UK could look to try and align with that. Europe is still one region despite Brexit. It's still almost a common market for automotive. So the more that those rules are aligned, the better the industry can function and be competitive.
Inperson 1: And it would be great if the UK could look to try and align with that. Europe is still one region despite Brexit. still almost a common market for automotive. So the more that those rules are aligned, the better the industry can function and be competitive.
Fred & Drea Warner: So when you talk about the 90 % mandate in Europe that's been discussed as you rightly point out, when we talk about tailpipe emissions versus the overall cycle of the manufacturer, some of what I perceive in the EV journey so far has been almost hypocritical that somebody can end up driving around a three to four tonne SUV under the quotation marks,
Inperson 1: So when you talk about the 90 % mandate in Europe that's been discussed as you rightly point out, when we talk about tailpipe emissions versus the overall cycle of the manufacturer, some of what I perceive in the EV journey so far has been almost hypocritical that somebody can end up driving around a three to four tonne SUV under the quotation marks,
Fred & Drea Warner: clean electric vehicle tax-free or tax-reduced on the UK government or other governments when a 14, 1600 kilogram ICE overall seems a far more efficient use of materials, cradle to grave, as well as the overall footprint over time. Now know there's strong arguments to say EV cleans itself up after 10, 15,000 miles or whatever the exact number is.
Inperson 1: clean electric vehicle tax-free or tax-reduced on the UK government or other governments when a 14, 1600 kilogram ICE overall seems a far more efficient use of materials, cradle to grave, as well as the overall footprint over time. Now know there's strong arguments to say EV cleans itself up after 10, 15,000 miles or whatever the exact number is.
Fred & Drea Warner: but it seems hypocritical that everybody's used it as an excuse to make things very heavy. The average car's 500 kilograms often heavier than its ice counterpart. Streets are being trashed. Buses leave holes in the ground where the EV buses pull up and they leave holes in the bus stops. It's not been thought through necessarily at this point that it needs considered not just the tailpipe, but yeah, the total life cycle of the product. Yeah, and I think that's true across the piece. And I think definitely
Inperson 1: but it seems hypocritical that everybody's used it as an excuse to make things very heavy. The average car's 500 kilograms often heavier than its ice counterpart. Streets are being trashed. Bushes leave holes in the ground where the EV buses pull up and they leave holes in the bus stops. It's not been thought through necessarily at this point that it needs considered not just the tailpipe, but yeah, the total life cycle of the product. Yeah, and I think that's true across the piece. And I think definitely
Fred & Drea Warner: one of the things that we challenge policymakers to think about in all policy areas, not just this, but everything they're working on, is what is the broader contest? What is the broader impact? What are the unforeseen consequences, the second order consequences? And sometimes, and this is a personal bugbear, politicians like to pull the quick lever that says easy win, quick solution. Great, move everybody to the EVs, job's a goodun, but what about demand on the grid? As you say, what about the weight impact of EVs on the infrastructure?
Inperson 1: one of the things that we challenge policymakers to think about in all policy areas, not just this, but everything they're working on, is what is the broader contest? What is the broader impact? What are the unforeseen consequences, the second order consequences? And sometimes, and this is a personal bugbear, politicians like to pull the quick lever that says easy win, quick solution. Great, move everybody to the EVs, jobs are good, but what about demand on the grid? As you say, what about the weight impact of EVs on the infrastructure?
Fred & Drea Warner: on the roads, what about disposing of batteries? What about the production of EVs? I sometimes think some of those questions aren't necessarily addressed as deeply as they could be. Or if you try to raise those questions, then you're going, you're an anti-EV person. No, not at all, not in the least. But we need to think holistically. And I think the culture of companies like Honda where we think quite deeply, we have this approach we call the Five Whys.
Inperson 1: on the roads, about disposing of batteries? What about the production of EVs? I sometimes think some of those questions aren't necessarily addressed as deeply as they could be. Or if you try to raise those questions, then you're going, you're an anti-EV person. No, not at all, not in the least. But we need to think holistically. And I think the culture of companies like Honda where we think quite deeply, we have this approach we call the Five Whys.
Fred & Drea Warner: So when you're addressing a problem, ask why five times, and eventually you should get to the root cause. Don't just ask why once, because you won't get the right answer. And I think sometimes policymakers go, great, we'll pull this lever, we'll ask why once, here's a solution, and we don't get it. Diesel is a great example. I think in this country and in Europe as well, there was a big push by policymakers a few years ago. Everybody drive a diesel, fuel duty on diesel was reduced.
Inperson 1: So when you're addressing a problem, ask why five times, and eventually you should get to the root cause. Don't just ask why once, because you won't get the right answer. And I think sometimes policymakers go, great, we'll pull this lever, we'll ask why once, here's a solution, and we don't get it. Diesel is a great example. I think in this country and in Europe as well, there was a big push by policymakers a few years ago. Everybody drive a diesel, fuel duty on diesel was reduced.
Fred & Drea Warner: the messaging was moved to diesel and then a few years later, wait, that didn't quite work out. Everybody pulled away from diesel movement a different way. That confuses customers and it just creates this vacuum of uncertainty. I think my call to policymakers always is think a little bit more deeply, reflect a little bit more deeply, ask experts and ask those five whys to get to the situation. Or if you are gonna take a
Inperson 1: the messaging was moved to diesel and then a few years later, wait, that didn't quite work out. Everybody pulled away from diesel movement a different way. That confuses customers and it just creates this vacuum of uncertainty. I think my call to policymakers always is think a little bit more deeply, reflect a little bit more deeply, ask experts and ask those five whys to get to the situation. Or if you are gonna take a
Fred & Drea Warner: a measure saying we want more EVs on the roads. Well, okay, what do I have to do to make sure that I'm putting in place countermeasures to any potential negative impact? Yes, you're really going to reduce emissions. You'll help people reduce their fuel costs if they're driving EV. But have I thought about, do I need to give councils more budget for road repairs? Do I need to think about how insurance companies treat multi-story car parks that are going to be full of EVs? So it's a lot of questions that need to be worked through, and I'm not necessarily sure that they are at the moment.
Inperson 1: a measure saying we want more EVs on the roads. Well, okay, what do I have to do to make sure that I'm putting in place countermeasures to any potential negative impact? Yes, you're really going to reduce emissions. You'll help people reduce their fuel costs if they're driving EV. But have I thought about, do I need to give councils more budget for road repairs? Do I need to think about how insurance companies treat multi-story car parks that are going to be full of EVs? So it's a lot of questions that need to be worked through, and I'm not necessarily sure that they are at the moment.
Fred & Drea Warner: No, I don't think they have been. can certainly say that, even if you can't in terms of your position. But I don't think they have been. My other comment would be that quite often they rely on very academic leaning studies. That I would say as somebody who has worked in academic spin outs and high tech companies involving academia, that the practicalities aren't always considered, but they're very influential. Universities are very influential in policy making.
Inperson 1: No, I don't think they have been. can certainly say that, even if you can't in terms of your position. But I don't think they have been. My other comment would be that quite often they rely on very academic leaning studies. That I would say as somebody who has worked in academic spin outs and high tech companies involving academia, that the practicalities aren't always considered, but they're very influential. Universities are very influential in policy making.
Fred & Drea Warner: and often industry maybe doesn't get enough of a say and the reality of the consumer doesn't get enough of a say in said policy making. Yeah, 100 % agree. think it's true in both Brussels and London and I'm sure in other capitals as well. So a politician loves to get a nice well-researched study with an academic logo on it or something that's come from a think tank or an NGO and it's got nice charts and numbers and that's great. But does it reflect the real world experience
Inperson 1: and often industry maybe doesn't get enough of a say and the reality of the consumer doesn't get enough of a say in said policy making. Yeah, 100 % agree. think it's true in both Brussels and London and I'm sure in other capitals as well. So a politician loves to get a nice well-researched study with an academic logo on it or something that's come from a think tank or an NGO and it's got nice charts and numbers and that's great. But does it reflect the real world experience
Fred & Drea Warner: of people. I think the good example is at the Europe level we're seeing a lot of studies from lot of the NGOs saying charging is the problem, there's X number of chargers across Europe and they just push that raw number out. But when you look at people's real experience, well maybe across the entire EU there's a huge number of chargers and it's growing. But if I'm in an industrial estate in Charleroi trying to return a rental car and can't find one, that's a lived experience that's playing to my perception of.
Inperson 1: of people. I think the good example is at the Europe level we're seeing a lot of studies from lot of the NGOs saying charging is the problem, there's X number of charges across Europe and they just push that raw number out. But when you look at people's real experience, well maybe across the entire EU there's a huge number of charges and it's growing, but if I'm in industrial estate in Charlewau trying to return a rental car and can't find one, that's a lived experience that's playing to my perception of.
Fred & Drea Warner: of EVs and how easy they are to use. I think, again, it's getting policymakers to be out in the real world and not to send all daily mail about it for a bit of common sense and get practicality. Center of Westminster, every second lamppost is a charger. Brilliant. But you come down to where I live around Weston-super-Mare it's a very different situation. So be in the real world is what I always say.
Inperson 1: of EVs and how easy they are to use. I think, again, it's getting policymakers to be out in the real world and not to send all daily mail about it for a bit of common sense and get practicality. Center of Westminster, every second lamppost is a charger. Brilliant. But you come down to where I live around Western Super Mayor, it's a very different situation. So be in the real world is what I always say.
Fred & Drea Warner: There's life outside of London. There's life outside of London, surprisingly. It sometimes doesn't feel so in UK. it takes me naturally on to talking about governments really dictating technology rather than setting policies that really allow the technology people to define the technology, let the policymakers dictate targets that are in line with what people need but also are realistic. And I think one of the things this whole ZEV mandate really brings up
Inperson 1: There's life outside of London. There's life outside of London, surprisingly. It sometimes doesn't feel so in UK. it takes me naturally on to talking about governments really dictating technology rather than setting policies that really allow the technology people to define the technology, let the policymakers dictate targets that are in line with what people need but also are realistic. And I think one of the things this whole ZEV mandate really brings up
Fred & Drea Warner: is governments assuming that they understand technology enough to dictate the direction that everyone needs to go in when, like you talk about Honda wanting a multi-power train approach, which anybody that understands heavy duty goods like commercial vehicles, marine, aviation, rail, when you look at the complete picture, having a ZEV mandate that says everything's banned,
Inperson 1: is governments assuming that they understand technology enough to dictate the direction that everyone needs to go in when, like you talk about Honda wanting a multi-power train approach, which anybody that understands heavy duty goods like commercial vehicles, marine, aviation, rail, when you look at the complete picture, having a ZEV mandate that says everything's banned,
Fred & Drea Warner: You've got diggers on sites. It just goes on and on and on in the construction industry. There's so many industries that haven't been considered as to how they would run in 2035 onwards. What's your position on governments meddling in technology rather than what they actually understand? Yeah, I'm not a fan of it. think governments should never pick winners and they should never pick technologies. I think they should set a targeted direction.
Inperson 1: You've got diggers on sites. It just goes on and on and on in the construction industry. There's so many industries that haven't been considered as to how they would run in 2035 What's your position on governments meddling in technology rather than what they actually understand? Yeah, I'm not a fan of it. think governments should never pick winners and they should never pick technologies. I think they should set a targeted direction.
Fred & Drea Warner: They should say by 2050 we want to hit net zero. Great, that's a clear target. We understand the direction as Honda is a company that's got what we call action to triple zero. So essentially we will look to do no harm, reduce fatalities on the roads and accidents on the roads and reduce the amount of materials we're using. So really sustainability is at the core of what we do. So that direction is clear. But we're the ones making the products. We're the ones interacting with the customers.
Inperson 1: They should say by 2050 we want to net zero. Great, that's a clear target. We understand the direction as Honda is a company that's got what we call action to triple zero. So essentially we will look to do no harm, reduce fatalities on the roads and accidents on the roads and reduce the amount of materials we're using. So really sustainability is at the core of what we do. So that direction is clear. But we're the ones making the products. We're the ones interacting with the customers.
Fred & Drea Warner: We're the ones operating in the real world. Let us and our competitors choose the right technologies that will work. Sometimes that will fail, But let us fail. Because one of the things that our previous European president said is failure isn't bad. You fail, you learn, you move on. But government just saying, well, we've chosen the technology. This is the technology. Everybody has to use it, irrespective of what the customer wants. That's never going to work.
Inperson 1: We're the ones operating in the real world. Let us and our competitors choose the right technologies that will work. Sometimes that will fail, But let us fail. Because one of the things that our previous European president said is failure isn't bad. You fail, you learn, you move on. But government just saying, well, we've chosen the technology. This is the technology. Everybody has to use it, irrespective of what the customer wants. That's never going to work.
Fred & Drea Warner: because customer choice is so important. If I tell you, you have to buy this, this is the only option you have, a lot of customers will say, And then you risk people clinging onto their older cars. The best way you can achieve a carbon's reduction today is if somebody takes their 10-year-old car and trades it in for anything, immediate reduction in carbon, be it BEV or hybrid. So I think just let those customers make the right choice.
Inperson 1: because customer choice is so important. If I tell you, you have to buy this, this is the only option you have, a lot of customers will say, And then you risk people clinging onto their older cars. The best way you can achieve a carbon's reduction today is if somebody takes their 10-year-old car and trades it in for anything, immediate reduction in carbon, be it BEV or hybrid. So I think just let those customers make the right choice.
Fred & Drea Warner: that works for them, that gives them the technology that meets their daily needs and fits their lives. That's going be much more effective way to move towards reducing emissions from transport than simply saying, we have decided this is the technology that you want. And I think if you applied that approach in other industries, it would feel a bit ludicrous. Probably people in this country should be eating more fruit and vegetables, but we don't say to Sainsbury's 50 % of your sales has to be apples. It's really great point that is, Patrick. And also, when you look at
Inperson 1: that works for them, that gives them the technology that meets their daily needs and fits their lives. That's going be much more effective way to move towards reducing emissions from transport than simply saying, we have decided this is the technology that you want. And I think if you applied that approach in other industries, it would feel a bit ludicrous. Probably people in this country should be eating more fruit and vegetables, but we don't say to Sainsbury's 50 % of your sales has to be apples. It's really great point that is, Patrick. And also, when you look at
Fred & Drea Warner: I'm not sure. was trying to think earlier of a single other industry that has such onerous demands on its products and the reduction in CO2, in emissions. I can't think of another industry that has any such demands on them. They're expecting the OEMs to absorb and I think you made a really great point earlier in terms of there are huge amounts of redundancies happening across Europe already because of the drop in demand and the up kick in the Chinese market.
Inperson 1: I'm not sure. was trying to think earlier of a single other industry that has such onerous demands on its products and the reduction in CO2, in emissions. I can't think of another industry that has any such demands on them. They're expecting the OEMs to absorb and I think you made a really great point earlier in terms of there are huge amounts of redundancies happening across Europe already because of the drop in demand and the up kick in the Chinese market.
Fred & Drea Warner: and the issues seen in writing down the technologies and the EV platforms that have been slowed down in production, to say that the automotive industry has been punished would appear to be a fairly...
Inperson 1: and the issues seen in writing down the technologies and the EV platforms that have been slowed down in production, to say that the automotive industry has been punished would appear to be a fairly...
Fred & Drea Warner: fair statement based on facts? Yeah, punished is maybe a strong word but I think it's definitely a challenging time when you know look at my role and we're looking at all the regulation and policies coming towards the automotive industry. It's a huge list if you look at all the requirements that a car company has to meet in terms of the safety of the product, emissions, a lot more about data and connectivity that's all being regulated, the due diligence and sustainability requirements.
Inperson 1: statement based on facts? Yeah, punished is maybe a strong word but I think it's definitely a challenging time when you know look at my role and we're looking at all the regulation and policies coming towards the automotive industry. It's a huge list if you look at all the requirements that a car company has to meet in terms of the safety of the product, emissions, a lot more about data and connectivity that's all being regulated, the due diligence and sustainability requirements.
Fred & Drea Warner: It's a huge list of regulatory burdens that adds up and up and up and up. So I think the industry is definitely under challenge. I think there's some in the political world that realise that and are looking to support us, but I think not everybody gets it. And I think there are some who I don't necessarily agree with who say, well, if we keep on pushing you towards electrification, that will help you win this global race against other regions. I'm not convinced that's the right direction. Again, I say, let the companies.
Inperson 1: It's a huge list of regulatory burdens that adds up and up and up and up. So I think the industry is definitely under challenge. I think there's some in the political world that realise that and are looking to support us, but I think not everybody gets it. And I think there are some who I don't necessarily agree with who say, well, if we keep on pushing you towards electrification, that will help you win this global race against other regions. I'm not convinced that's the right direction. Again, I say, let the companies.
Fred & Drea Warner: take the approach that they think will work and resonate with their customers because we're the ones that know our customers and know our market and know the technology the best. Absolutely, I can't agree with you more Patrick. So that takes me on to the infrastructure question and what I class as the poverty premium in public infrastructure and public EV charging specifically. So when you look at some of the statistics, so there's 5 % VAT on home electrics, so people with driveways,
Inperson 1: take the approach that they think will work and resonate with their customers because we're the ones that our customers and know our market and know the technology the best. Absolutely, I can't agree with you more Patrick. So that takes me on to the infrastructure question and what are classes of the poverty premium in public infrastructure and public EV charging specifically. So when you look at some of the statistics, so there's 5 % VAT on home electrics, so people with driveways,
Fred & Drea Warner: can charge their vehicle on a drive, they get cheap electric, maybe an overnight tariff, but certainly seven, eight pence a kilowatt, then they pay 5 % VAT on that. So they're making significant savings. But people with driveways don't represent the vast majority of society. Now everybody else is paying not only 20 % VAT on the electric, but the public charging infrastructure, there is zero regulation on pricing, which means people are paying 60, 70, 80, 90 pence a kilowatt, which is often more expensive than its petrol.
Inperson 1: can charge their vehicle on a drive, they get cheap electric, maybe an overnight tariff, but certainly seven, eight pence a kilowatt, then they pay 5 % VAT on that. So they're making significant savings. But people with driveways don't represent the vast majority of society. Now everybody else is paying not only 20 % VAT on the electric, but the public charging infrastructure, is zero regulation on pricing, which means people are paying 60, 70, 80, 90 pence a kilowatt, which is often more expensive than its petrol.
Fred & Drea Warner: counterpart and there's no control. So whilst the government mandate really controls what the automotive is meant to be selling to people, there is zero control on the cost of fuel for what I class as people that are everyday people, most commonly live in flats, terraced houses, you know those streets where you drive down and cars are parked on every single bit of pavement, bit of grass, all over the place, maybe in multi-stories. It's simply not as realistic as the dream of
Inperson 1: counterpart and there's no control. So whilst the government mandate really controls what the automotive is meant to be selling to people, there is zero control on the cost of fuel for what I class as people that are everyday people, most commonly live in flats, terraced houses, know those streets where you drive down and cars are parked on every single bit of pavement, bit of grass, all over the place, maybe in multi-stories. It's simply not as realistic as dream of
Fred & Drea Warner: driving on your driveway and plugging in. That's not most people's reality. It's not. It's not. And I think I recognise that. I'm lucky enough to have a house with a driveway. But the village I live in, it's a range. So there's some people that have a house with a driveway. There's some people that live in lovely ancient cottages that have no driveway, that have curbside parking. And then we've got, as you say, the streets with a turning circle, wherever he's parked in the grass and on the verges. So there's a really, I think, the word I would almost use is about equity.
Inperson 1: driving on your driveway and plugging in. That's not most people's reality. It's not. It's not. And I think I recognise that. I'm lucky enough to have a house with a driveway. But the village I live in, it's a range. So there's some people that have a house with a driveway. There's some people that live in lovely ancient cottages that have no driveway, that have curbside parking. And then we've got, as you say, the streets with a turning circle, wherever he's parked in the grass and on the verges. So there's a really, I think, the word I would almost use is about equity.
Fred & Drea Warner: Is there charging equity? And I would say there isn't. So again, you know, the raw number of public chargers across the country and across Europe may be right, but are they properly distributed? I think on the pricing piece, I'm never one to call for price controls or price caps. I'm a bit more libertarian than that. But I think there is a real role for price transparency. So when you're driving down the motorway or you're driving around town, you'll see at any petrol station, you'll see the price of diesel, you'll see the price of petrol. You can go on loads of apps and...
Inperson 1: Is there charging equity? And I would say there isn't. So again, you know, the raw number of public charges across the country and across Europe may be right, but are they properly distributed? I think on the pricing piece, I'm never one to call for price controls or price caps. I'm a bit more libertarian than that. But I think there is a real role for price transparency. So when you're driving down the motorway or you're driving around town, you'll see at any petrol station, you'll see the price of diesel, you'll see the price of petrol. You can go on loads of apps and...
Fred & Drea Warner: and see, okay, I could go to the Shell station, that's gonna give you a discount over BP, as an example. But you don't really have that for EV charging. So if you're driving down the motorway, do you go, I'll stop at Membury services, or I'll hang on and pull off the motorway and go to this other one. That transparency isn't there, so I think there's definitely a role for the regulator in ensuring that there is price transparency. Because as you say, sometimes you can charge up at a rapid charger and go, that was more expensive than a tank of petrol, that's not how this is.
Inperson 1: and see, okay, I could go to the Shell station, that's gonna give you a discount over BP, as an example. But you don't really have that for EV charging. So if you're driving down the motorway, do you go, I'll stop at memory services, or I'll hang on and pull off the motorway and go to this other one. That transparency isn't there, so I think there's definitely a role for the regulator in ensuring that there is price transparency. Because as you say, sometimes you can charge up at a rapid charger and go, that was more expensive than a tank of petrol, that's not how this is.
Fred & Drea Warner: meant to work. I think the other point you made on equalising VAT between home and public charging is spot on. It's almost quite regressive, isn't it, that people have a nice house with a driveway, are getting to charge their EV cheaper than the person on the terrace or on the turning circle. That's a conversation that the industry has been having with government for quite some time. Some parts of government have been sympathetic to the argument, but in the end, those that hold the pen over the budget haven't moved yet.
Inperson 1: meant to work. I think the other point you made equalising VAT between home and public charging is spot on. It's almost quite regressive, isn't it, that people have a nice house with a driveway, are getting to charge their EV cheaper than the person on the terrace or on the turning circle. That's a conversation that the industry has been having with government for quite some time. Some parts of government have been sympathetic to the argument, but in the end, those that hold the pen over the budget haven't moved yet.
Fred & Drea Warner: But I'm hoping that in time and maybe as part of this push to reduce cost of living, that's something that could be looked at. But again, if you're trying to get whole society moving towards a car with a plug in it, and you're not giving people that opportunity to charge at a reasonable price, it doesn't really play towards that. And I think the last thing I would say again about the distribution of charging is the car industry has a mandate on what we have to sell.
Inperson 1: But I'm hoping that in time and maybe as part of this push to reduce cost of living, that's something that could be looked at. But again, if you're trying to get whole society moving towards a car with a plug in it, and you're not giving people that opportunity to charge at a reasonable price, doesn't really play towards that. And I think the last thing I would say again about the distribution of charging is the car industry has a mandate on what we have to sell.
Fred & Drea Warner: The EV charging industry doesn't have a mandate on where they have to put their chargers. So they have an incentive to say, right, we'll put our chargers in the nice leafy suburbs of the centre of cities. I think they need to be pushed to be putting chargers into areas where there's not demand yet in order to give people reassurance. If I do go for an EV, there is a charger on my block. There is a charger in the Tesco's car park. But the EV industry needs to be pushed to put those in there ahead of demand. Maybe it'll be less profitable in the short term.
Inperson 1: The EV charging industry doesn't have a mandate on where they have to put their charges. So they have an incentive to say, right, we'll put our charges in the nice leafy suburbs of the center of cities. I think they need to be pushed to be putting charges into areas where there's not demand yet in order to give people reassurance. If I do go for an EV, there is a charger on my block. There is a charger in the Tesco's car park. But the EV industry needs to be pushed to put those in there ahead of demand. Maybe it'll be less profitable in the short term.
Fred & Drea Warner: but it helps to give that consumer confidence. There's some fantastic points there, Patrick. I'm going to pick up on one that I'm going to take a slightly different stance on, and that is the pricing point. So I get the libertarian sort of point of view on pricing. One of the things I see happening is that the public infrastructure is being put in by private companies. They want to return on their investment, clearly, to put the infrastructure in place. So to your point, they're choosing where to put those based on the highest demand, not on giving coverage.
Inperson 1: but it helps to give that consumer confidence. There's some fantastic points there, Patrick. I'm going to pick up on one that I'm going to take a slightly different stance on, and that is the pricing point. So I get the libertarian sort of point of view on pricing. One of the things I see happening is that the public infrastructure is being put in by private companies. They want to return on their investment, clearly, to put the infrastructure in place. So to your point, they're choosing where to put those based on the highest demand, not on giving coverage.
Fred & Drea Warner: to the population. So if you're in a city, maybe you're in a city suburb, you're gonna get the highest amount of people using it. So you shove your infrastructure there. You may well be meeting increases in numbers of chargers, but you're not creating extra coverage. It's like the classic phone network piece. However, when you start to look at the lack of pricing control, when you look at there's two or three companies particularly very active, I'm not gonna name them, but one of them begins with a capital O and is very active in the electricity industry.
Inperson 1: to the population. So if you're in a city, maybe you're a city suburb, you're gonna get the highest amount of people using it. So you shove your infrastructure there. You may well be meeting increases in numbers of charges, but you're not creating extra coverage. It's like the classic phone network piece. However, when you start to look at the lack of pricing control, when you look at there's two or three companies particularly very active, I'm not gonna name them, but one of them is going to capital O and is very active in the industry.
Fred & Drea Warner: while they're trying to have an app that consolidates all the chargers in the infrastructure, you've not only got more and more mouths to feed from the electricity company providing the electric to the infrastructure owner, to the app owner. So there's several mouths now taking out of it, but it creates a monopoly because if there's only a couple of players in the market and they're private, you're now into a monopoly situation where they can influence the price to their benefit, not the consumer benefit.
Inperson 1: while they're trying to have an app that consolidates all the charges in the infrastructure, you've not only got more and more mouths to feed from the electricity company providing the electric to the infrastructure owner, to the app owner. So there's several mouths now taking out of it, but it creates a monopoly because if there's only a couple of players in the market and they're private, you're now into a monopoly situation where they can influence the price to their benefit, not the consumer benefit.
Fred & Drea Warner: When I talked just before the meeting, I remember in the holiday sector, in holiday parks, when people are sold electricity from the holiday park, let's take a Park Dean, Haven holidays, they sell people a larger caravan, and there's a cap on how much they can upsell the electric through to the end user for the protection of the end user. And I wonder, and I believe that that is a discussion point that says, why don't we protect the users a little bit more and cap how much margin?
Inperson 1: When I talked just before the meeting, I remember in the holiday sector, in holiday parks, when people are sold electricity from the holiday park, let's take a Park Dean, Haven holidays, they sell people a larger caravan, and there's a cap on how much they can upsell the electric through to the end user for the protection of the end user. And I wonder, and I believe that that is a discussion point that says, why don't we protect the users a little bit more and cap how much margin?
Fred & Drea Warner: the private companies are allowed to boot onto people and also should the government not be thinking about a public app that actually allows you to go up to any public charger and pay something that's not controlled by a private company. And I think there's an argument there that says we've not really thought through that part of it because I really passionately feel that the little person, the everyday person that earns the least wages is getting stiffed the most.
Inperson 1: the private companies are allowed to boot onto people and also should the government not be thinking about a public app that actually allows you to go up to any public charger and pay something that's not controlled by a private company. And I think there's an argument there that says we've not really thought through that part of it because I really passionately feel that the little person, the everyday person that earns the least wages is getting stiffed the most.
Fred & Drea Warner: And a lot of the 25 % EV sales that we get now, it's fleet and it's company cars. And there's going to reach a point when we push from the company cars into the private sector, I haven't got the numbers in front of me how much is, how much of the private sales are current EV versus how much of company cars are EV. It's going to be harder and harder. The resistance gets higher pushing into private because we've simply not solved these problems. Because those people are worried, how do I pay 80, 90 pence a kilowatt whilst...
Inperson 1: And a lot of the 25 % EV sales that we get now, it's fleet and it's company cars. And there's going to reach a point when we push from the company cars into the private sector, I haven't got the numbers in front of me how much is, how much of the private sales are current EV versus how much of company cars are EV. It's going to be harder and harder. The resistance gets higher pushing into private because we've simply not solved these problems. Because those people are worried, how do I pay 80, 90 pence a kilowatt whilst...
Fred & Drea Warner: Bob down the road manages to put it through his drive and through his company and get all the tax benefits involved. Yeah, I think you identify the problem very, very quickly. And I think, again, as you say, as that adoption curve increases, you are going to meet more resistance as you enter it. And while we're now 25%, that's still the 75 % of sales to go, isn't there? So I think addressing that equity issue is...
Inperson 1: Bob down the road manages to put it through his drive and through his company and get all the tax benefits involved. Yeah, I think you sort identify the problem very, very quickly. And I think, again, as you say, as that adoption curve increases, you are going to meet more resistance as you enter it. And while we're now 25%, that's still the 75 % of sales to go, isn't there? So I think addressing that equity issue is...
Fred & Drea Warner: vital. Whether it's price caps, I don't know. And I think government needs to think about what levers it can pull. So when you look at petrol, they play with fuel duty, don't they, as a cost of living thing. Could they be doing the same with VAT on public charging? That's probably the easiest win, isn't it, is to equalise. They can reduce VAT. then in such a way that the operators don't just absorb that and pass on the VAT cut to the customer.
Inperson 1: vital. Whether it's price caps, I don't know. And I think government needs to think about what levers it can pull. So when you look at petrol, they play with fuel duty, don't they, as a cost of living thing. Could they be doing the same with VAT on public charging? That's probably the easiest win, isn't it, is to equalise. They can reduce that. then in such a way that the operators don't just absorb that and pass on the VAT cut to the customer.
Fred & Drea Warner: It's a problem that has to be addressed. I'm not enough of an energy economist to know the right solution. But there must be a way to do it. I think the cost of the EVs itself are coming down. So I think we are reaching a point where there's, on some models, price parity between a petrol car and its EV equivalent. So I think that issue is becoming more and more, or less of an issue. But I think you're right. It's that lack of equity in charging that's really going to hit people.
Inperson 1: It's a problem that has to be addressed. I'm not enough of an energy economist to know the right solution. there must be a way to do it. think the cost of the EVs itself are coming down. So I think we are reaching a point where there's, on some models, price parity between a petrol car and its EV equivalent. So I think that issue is becoming more and more, or less of an issue. But I think you're right. It's that lack of equity in charging that's really going to hit people.
Fred & Drea Warner: And I think as well when you look towards the future and we see in this country at least governments considering introducing a pay-per-mile charge for EVs to replace the lost fuel duty. Again, that feels a little bit regressive because some of the people who drive the most are the people that really rely on their cars. People getting to shifts at night shifts at four in the morning when there's no bus or people living in rural areas. That again feels a little bit regressive and plays against, you know.
Inperson 1: And I think as well when you look towards the future and we see in this country at least governments considering introducing a pay-per-mile charge for EVs to replace the last fuel duty. Again, that feels a little bit regressive because some of the people who drive the most are the people that really rely on their cars. People getting to shifts at night shifts at four in the morning when there's no bus or people living in rural areas. That again feels a little bit regressive and plays against, you know.
Fred & Drea Warner: an equitable transition to sustainable mobility. I absolutely agree. And you know what, we didn't cover that so far, but that single piece has caused quite a large amount of confusion because it doesn't just hit the EVs. They're going to have to plug in hybrid. They have as well. For those that are using the cycle, they're already paying the tax on the plug-in hybrid because it's got a petrol engine. And now they're going to pay an additional tax because when they're using it on EV mode, the government wants more money out of So I find it a very bizarre policy.
Inperson 1: an equitable transition to sustainable mobility. I absolutely agree. And you know what, we didn't cover that so far, but that single piece has caused quite a large amount of confusion because it doesn't just hit the EVs. They're going to have to plug in hybrid. They have as well. For those that are using the cycle, they're already paying the tax on the plug-in hybrid because it's got a petrol engine. And now they're going to pay an additional tax because when they're using it on EV mode, the government wants more money out of So I find it a very bizarre policy.
Fred & Drea Warner: that's causing confusion because people are now confused. And I also believe it's a precursor to most people feel big brother monitoring because the next argument will be well, in order to accurately monitor this, we need to put a little box in your car and you need to be telling us exactly how many miles you're doing, which is then a precursor to being, well, now we know exactly where you are, how fast you're going, when you're speeding, when you're not. And it feels like it's just an excuse of a precursor to more control in the future. And I think that really gets most people's backs up because
Inperson 1: that's causing confusion because people are now confused. And I also believe it's a precursor to most people feel big brother monitoring because the next argument will be well, in order to accurately monitor this, we need to put a little box in your car and you need to be telling us exactly how many miles you're doing, which is then a precursor to being, well, now we know exactly where you are, how fast you're going, when you're speeding, when you're not. And it feels like it's just an excuse of a precursor to more control in the future. And I think that really gets most people's backs up because
Fred & Drea Warner: this is meant to be something that's meant to be for the good of sustainability and it gets used for other ulterior motives. Yeah, I think in the most recent consultation on the pay per mile charge they were saying, well, we'll just check it at MOT time and it'll be a paper. But I think you're right. And I know there have been a few firms sort of doing the rounds saying, well, we have a solution that's a tech-based solution that we can use GPS and so on. And again, that feels a bit, yeah, it doesn't pass the smell test, does it?
Inperson 1: this is meant to be something that's meant to be for the good of sustainability and it gets used for other ulterior motives. Yeah, I think in the most recent consultation on the paper mile charge they were saying, well, we'll just check it at MOT time and it'll be a paper. But I think you're right. And I know there have been a few firms sort of doing the rounds saying, well, we have a solution that's a tech-based solution that we can use GPS and so on. And again, that feels a bit, yeah, it doesn't pass the smell test, does it?
Fred & Drea Warner: It's very invasive. It's very invasive. I think what we're saying and what the industry said is the pay-per-mile thing is just the wrong policy at the wrong time. Because again, we're still only at 25%. We've got a long way to go to get to 100. And you're sending a signal. And I think people are clever. People respond to signals. And they go, OK. Government's introducing a tax on this thing. Tax is a great way to disincentivise people from doing things.
Inperson 1: It's very invasive. It's very invasive. I think what we're saying and what the industry said is the pay-per-mile thing is just the wrong policy at the wrong time. Because again, we're still only at 25%. We've got a long way to go to get to 100. And you're sending a signal. And I think people are clever. People respond to signals. And they go, OK. Government's introducing a tax on this thing. Tax is a great way to disincentivise people from doing things.
Fred & Drea Warner: it's government departments playing against each other. Sure, in future, there will be less fuel duty because people will be driving fewer petrol cars and buying less petrol. Yes, that will have to be replaced in the future. But at the moment, your main priority is getting more people in EVs. Then don't be sending these signals at this time. I think there's almost a complacency that the trajectory set is all fair winds and plain sailing.
Inperson 1: it's government departments playing against each other. Sure, in future, there will be less fuel duty because people will be driving fewer petrol cars and buying less petrol. Yes, that will have to be replaced in the future. But at the moment, your main priority is getting more people in EVs. Then don't be sending these signals at this time. I think there's almost a complacency that the trajectory set is all fair winds and plain sailing.
Fred & Drea Warner: But I think it won't be if you keep on sending these incoherent or inconsistent signals to people. Absolutely. So let's move on to hybrids, fuel cell vehicles, and e-fuels, taking hybrids first. Honda's obviously very active in the space. part of the hope for the 90 % type target or a more pragmatic carbon reduction target would be that it allows both the plug-in hybrid, the FEV,
Inperson 1: But I think it won't be if you keep on sending these incoherent or inconsistent signals to people. Absolutely. So let's move on to hybrids, fuel cell vehicles, any fuels, taking hybrids first. Honda's obviously very active in the space. part of the hope for the 90 % type target or a more pragmatic carbon reduction target would be that it allows the plug-in hybrid, the FEV,
Fred & Drea Warner: and also the HEV, the hybrid vehicles, and there's various configurations and range extenders and all sorts of things that are in the market. How do you get it through to the policymakers that FEV delivers significant carbon savings, even when people are driving on petrol? Because it's still using regenerative braking, you've got the traffic moving. Anyone that's owned a hybrid that operates well knows that
Inperson 1: and also the HEV, the hybrid vehicles, and there's various configurations and range extenders and all sorts of things that are in the How do you get it through to the policymakers that FEV delivers significant carbon savings, even when people are driving on petrol? Because it's still using regenerative braking, you've got the traffic moving. Anyone that's owned a hybrid that operates well knows that
Fred & Drea Warner: rolling around towns on EV mode, getting extra energy from braking, it's a significant saving overall and it allows for the wide range of duty cycles that is practical for most people. so as you said, Honda is really leaning into full hybrid technology globally for a range of reasons. So one is providing people with reduced emissions at a much more accessible and affordable way.
Inperson 1: rolling around towns on EV mode, getting extra energy from braking, it's a significant saving overall and it allows for the wide range of duty cycles that is practical for most people. so as you said, Honda is really leaning into full hybrid technology a range of reasons. So one providing people with reduced emissions at a much more accessible and affordable way.
Fred & Drea Warner: you remove that entire infrastructure and charging issue by saying, put petrol in it. And as you drive it, the computer will work with the battery to deliver the most emissions reduction and electric miles possible. So it's brilliant. So for people who aren't necessarily ready to make the leap to an EV now, because of all the issues we've talked about, if you put them into a full hybrid, you're already delivering immediate emissions reductions, immediate sustainability, and getting them used to the idea of electrified driving.
Inperson 1: remove that entire infrastructure and charging issue by saying, put petrol in it. And as you drive it, the computer will work with the battery to deliver the most emissions reduction and electric miles possible. So it's brilliant. for people who aren't necessarily ready to make the leap to an EV now, because of all the issues we've talked about, if you put them into a full hybrid, you're already delivering immediate emissions reductions, immediate sustainability, and getting them used to the idea of electrified driving.
Fred & Drea Warner: And we see when people go full hybrid, they tend not to go back. And if you look at the numbers, I don't have them to hand. Full hybrid is a pretty significant share of new sales growing across the region. So there's a huge benefit there. And we think that technology has a role to play for the medium and the longer term. in this country, we know in 2030, government intends to end the sale of conventional petrol and diesel and allow something towards 2035.
Inperson 1: And we see when people go full hybrid, they tend not to go back. And if you look at the numbers, I don't have them to hand. Full hybrid is a pretty significant share of new sales growing across the region. So there's a huge benefit there. And we think that technology has a role to play for the medium and the longer term. in this country, we know in 2030, government intends to end the sale of conventional petrol and diesel and allow something towards 2035.
Fred & Drea Warner: One of the things that will be in the upcoming consultation is the definition of what exactly is the kind of hybrid that we can sell during that period. We would say that that definition should support full hybrid, not just plug-in with an arbitrary, if it does 80 kilometres on a charge, then it works. I think there's more nuance and subtle thinking needs to take place than that sort of arbitrary cutoff point. Plug-in hybrid technology also plays an important role.
Inperson 1: One of the things that will be in the upcoming consultation is the definition of what exactly is the kind of hybrid that we can sell during that period. We would say that that definition should support full hybrid, not just plug-in with an arbitrary, if it does 80 kilometres on a charge, then it works. I think there's more nuance and subtle thinking needs to take place than that sort of arbitrary cutoff point. Plug-in hybrid technology also plays an important role.
Fred & Drea Warner: I'm driving a plug-in now and as I was saying earlier, it's brilliant. So I can do about 80 kilometres on a charge, which gets me all my local journeys done around where I live and then switch to hybrid driving. I wouldn't say petrol driving, hybrid driving for the motorway segment. it delivers significant fuel savings, electric miles, and is a great technology. But I think we, as we're working on this policy, there is a lot of pushback from
Inperson 1: I'm driving a plug-in now and as I was saying earlier, it's brilliant. So I can do about 80 kilometres on a charge, which gets me all my local journeys done around where I live and then switch to hybrid driving. I wouldn't say petrol driving, hybrid driving for the motorway segment. it delivers significant fuel savings, electric miles, and is a great technology. But I think we, as we're working on this policy, there is a lot of pushback from
Fred & Drea Warner: from some and to come back to the academic studies. We see some academic studies saying, well, x percentage of people don't plug in their plug-in. Well, it's still in petrol mode running on the hybrid drivetrain. And I think a lot of people do plug it in. I think if you have the benefit of having cheap at home charging, you'd be stupid not to plug it in. It's just basic common sense economics. So there is a big role for these technologies that are,
Inperson 1: from some and to come back to the academic studies. We see some academic studies saying, well, x percentage of people don't plug in their plug-in. Well, it's still in petrol mode running on the hybrid drivetrain. And I think a lot of people do plug it in. think if you have the benefit of having cheap at home charging, you'd be stupid not to plug it in. It's just basic common sense economics. So there is a big role for these technologies that are,
Fred & Drea Warner: I wouldn't say they're transitional technology to fuel electric. I think they play a bigger role than a transition, but they do support people in moving into more sustainable mobility, starting to understand electrified mobility. Maybe as the next step they move into an EV, or maybe for them, hybrid is the perfect sweet spot. Some fantastic points in there. I particularly like talking around, A that hybrid vehicles are in hybrid mode when using petrol, as we've already talked about, and therefore it's not the same as when in a petrol car. People do see advantages of
Inperson 1: I wouldn't say they're transitional technology to fuel electric. I think they play a bigger role than a transition, but they do support people in moving into more sustainable mobility, starting to understand electrified mobility. Maybe as the next step they move into an EV, or maybe for them, hybrid is the perfect sweet spot. Some fantastic points in there. I particularly like talking around, that hybrid vehicles are in hybrid mode when using petrol, as we've already talked about, and therefore it's not the same as when in a petrol car. People do see advantages of
Fred & Drea Warner: charging so in a plug-in situation there's also huge amounts of the global community that don't have a plug-in situation and won't have so therefore a full hybrid vehicle is going to be perfect in the long run for getting efficiencies and gains. When we look at the 2035 target without having a strategy across Europe and the UK certainly and what you'd really want it wider globally that says we understand that hybrid really is a transition technology but I'd say a long-term
Inperson 1: charging so in a plug-in situation there's also huge amounts of the global community that don't have a plug-in situation and won't have so therefore a full hybrid vehicle is going to be perfect in the long run for getting efficiencies and gains. When we look at the 2035 target without having a strategy across Europe and the UK certainly and what you'd really want it wider globally that says we understand that hybrid really is a transition technology but I'd say a long-term
Fred & Drea Warner: actual application. I personally believe in hybrid as a long-term technology. You're right that somebody who's not had any experience in electric vehicle can get a hybrid, get a plug-in hybrid or a full hybrid and move on the journey and maybe their EV will be the next car after that. But the full jump for a lot of people with the range anxieties, with the infrastructure, shortfalls, just buying it for everybody just isn't suitable. I can't understand why policymakers that lean on this academic research, that lean on the studies don't see.
Inperson 1: actual application. I personally believe in hybrid as a long-term technology. You're right that somebody who's not had any experience in electric vehicle can get a hybrid, get a plug-in hybrid or a full hybrid and move on the journey and maybe their EV will be the next car after that. But the full jump for a lot of people with the range anxieties, with the infrastructure, shortfalls, just buying it for everybody just isn't suitable. I can't understand why policymakers that lean on this academic research, that lean on the studies don't see.
Fred & Drea Warner: what seems blatantly obvious to anyone that understands technology and engineering and automotive, that hybrid is the future with EV playing a part in that too. Yeah. And again, I think, you know, I won't paint policymakers all with the same brush because I think there are some that get it. And, you know, the number of MPs and MEPs I talk to go, I drive a hybrid. It's brilliant. It fits all my needs. Amazing. So they get it. But I think there are some who, again, they just want to pull that single lever and solve all the problems with
Inperson 1: what seems blatantly obvious to anyone that understands technology and engineering and automotive, that hybrid is the future with EV playing a part in that too. Yeah. And again, I think, you know, I won't paint policymakers all with the same brush because I think there are some that get it. And, you know, the number of MEPs and MEPs I talk to go, I drive a hybrid. It's brilliant. It fits all my needs. Amazing. So they get it. But I think there are some who, again, they just want to pull that single lever and solve all the problems with
Fred & Drea Warner: EVs are the silver bullet bosh done. I think we just need to continue to work to help those people understand that's not a realistic solution for everybody. I think there are some that go any emissions of any kind are unacceptable. in a previous life, I worked in the tobacco industry and I stretched the parallel somewhat, but there was a discussion, do we move people from cigarettes, which we all agree are terrible and bad for you.
Inperson 1: EVs or the silver bullet Bosch done. I think we just need to continue to work to help those people understand that's not a realistic solution for everybody. I think there are some that go any emissions of any kind are unacceptable. in a previous life, I worked in the tobacco industry and I stretched the parallel somewhat, but there was a discussion, do we move people from cigarettes, which we all agree are terrible in bad view.
Fred & Drea Warner: to vapes. And if you move people from cigarettes to vapes, which are 90 % safer, you save a lot of lives, you reduce the cost of treasury and healthcare system. But those people who still want to enjoy nicotine and still need it for some reason in their lives have an option that's safer. But you had a large community who said no, vapes are bad. Just stop entirely. It was almost called quit or die. And it's a little bit similar in this transition going from
Inperson 1: vapes. And if you move people from cigarettes to vapes, which are 90 % safer, you save a lot of lives, you reduce the cost of treasury and healthcare system. But those people who still want to enjoy nicotine and still need it for some reason in their lives have an option that's safer. But you had a large community who said no, vapes are bad. Just stop entirely. It was almost called quit or die. it's a little bit similar in this transition going from
Fred & Drea Warner: Well, here's a technology we all agree that conventional ice it has to transition and move and become more sustainable. Here's a midpoint, a compromise, a fuzzy grey area that works for a lot of people. But you still have some that say, no, no, need perfect, we need perfect. So I think it's about not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. Here's a technology that delivers a lot of benefit that works for everybody, avoids a lot of the challenges we see around EVs. Let's create an atmosphere where that can work.
Inperson 1: Well, here's a technology we all agree that conventional ice is, it has to transition and move and become more sustainable. Here's a midpoint, a compromise, a fuzzy gray area that works for a lot of people. But you still have some that say, no, no, we need perfect, we need perfect. So I think it's about, you not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. Here's a technology that delivers a lot of benefit that works for everybody, avoids a lot of the challenges we see around EVs. Let's, an atmosphere where that can work.
Fred & Drea Warner: thrive, not just rule it out because it happens to operate on a bit of petrol from time to time. I think to see progress in that space for me, in the hybrid space, because if something's not set in place for 2035 that's more pragmatic, it really restricts the OEMs in terms of how do we develop them? Because like you say, 10 years away is nothing in an OEM. So you need more support for the long-term hybrid technology.
Inperson 1: thrive, not just rule it out because it happens to operate on a bit of petrol from time to time. I think to see progress in that space for me, in the hybrid space, because if something's not set in place for 2035 that's more pragmatic, it really restricts the OEMs in terms of how do we develop them? Because like you say, 10 years away is nothing in an OEM. So you need more support for the long-term hybrid technology.
Fred & Drea Warner: Moving on to e-fuels, synthetic fuels and hydrogen fuel cells. We'll go through hydrogen fuel cells quite quickly because it's not going to be an active technology as we've discussed in automotive now. It's been tried many times, there's a lot of demonstrators. There's still a lot of options around motorbikes potentially, rail, HGVs, light commercial vehicles. What's the general thinking around?
Inperson 1: Moving on to e-fuels, synthetic fuels and hydrogen fuel cells. We'll go through hydrogen fuel cells quite quickly because it's not going to be an active technology as we've discussed in automotive now. It's been tried many times, there's a lot of demonstrators. There's still a lot of options around motorbikes potentially, rail, HGVs, light commercial vehicles. What's the general thinking around?
Fred & Drea Warner: hydrogen fuel cell for you? Yeah, so we've been looking at fuel cell for quite some time and hydrogen I think is an important part of the mix in Japan. we're seeing a lot of thinking around it. I agree that it's probably not the solution for passenger car. We piloted fuel cell passenger cars here in Europe for short while, in Japan, in California. The economics of it don't quite work out. What we see is more opportunities around
Inperson 1: hydrogen fuel cell for Yeah, so we've been looking at fuel cell for quite some time and hydrogen I think is an important part of the mix in Japan. we're seeing a lot of thinking around it. I agree that it's probably not the solution for passenger car. We piloted fuel cell passenger cars here in Europe for short while, in Japan, in California. The economics of it don't quite work out. What we see is more opportunities around
Fred & Drea Warner: heavy duty applications, as you said, so for trucks, potentially for heavy marine. Marine is one of the most polluting forms of transport. If you can move from burning bunker fuel to using hydrogen, I think there is a huge emissions savings and sustainability manoeuvre. But we're also looking at stationary applications. So for instance, when you're looking at data centres, which need to have a constant reliable source of energy,
Inperson 1: heavy duty applications, as you said, so for trucks, potentially for heavy marine. Marine is one of the most polluting forms of transport. If you can move from burning bunker fuel to using hydrogen, I think there is a huge emissions savings and sustainability maneuver. But we're also looking at stationary applications. So for instance, when you're looking at data centers, which need to have a constant reliable source of energy,
Fred & Drea Warner: often their backup will be diesel or petrol generators. If you can replace that with a fuel cell backup solution, a stationary solution, again, there's a massive amount of emissions that's reduced. So that's really where we're seeing potential opportunity from our point of view. I know across the industry, others are looking at, for instance, using hydrogen in
Inperson 1: often their backup will be diesel or petrol generators. If you can replace that with a fuel cell backup solution, a stationary solution, again, there's a massive amount of emissions that's reduced. So that's really where we're seeing potential opportunity from our point of view. I know across the industry, others are looking at, for instance, using hydrogen in
Fred & Drea Warner: IC engines for heavy duty applications or potentially non-road mobile machinery application. Dirty hydrogen. Dirty hydrogen, But it means you can be less pure with the hydrogen, which is far more usable and far cheaper than getting the very high pure grade, the very high grade purities that's required to run a fuel cell. Yeah. I think there'll be a range of applications where hydrogen plays a role.
Inperson 1: IC engines for heavy duty applications or potentially non-road mobile machinery application. Dirty hydrogen. Dirty hydrogen, But it means you can be less pure with the hydrogen, which is far more usable and far cheaper than getting the very high pure grade, the very high grade purities that's required to run a fuel cell. Yeah. I think there'll be a range of applications where hydrogen plays a role.
Fred & Drea Warner: I think the interesting question is around e-fuels or liquid fuels or carbon neutral fuels, whatever we're calling them today. They come from a variety of sources. To end on the e-fuels then, closed carbon, let's call it so, for the viewer if you don't understand, whereas an EV has no tailpipe emissions, an e-fuel would, but the idea is that it puts out no more than it took out of the climate and the environment to begin with. So it's closed loop.
Inperson 1: I think the interesting question is around e-fuels or liquid fuels or carbon neutral fuels, whatever we're calling them today. They come from a variety of sources. To end on the e-fuels then, closed carbon, let's call it so, for the viewer if you don't understand, whereas an EV has no tailpipe emissions, an e-fuel would, but the idea is that it puts out no more than it took out of the climate and the environment to begin with. So it's closed loop.
Fred & Drea Warner: carbon out of the environment and you put it back in through burning it again. So there's an argument to say, it's making no difference doing it. And there's 1.4 billion cars estimated on the roads globally, 300 million in Europe that are going to be around for a long time. Future cars being able to move on e-fuels and sustainable fuels, motorsports, very keen on it and pursuing it. Any thoughts?
Inperson 1: carbon out of the environment and you put it back in through burning it again. So there's an argument to say, it's making no difference doing it. And there's 1.4 billion cars estimated on the roads globally, 300 million in Europe that are going to be around for a long time. Future cars being able to move on e-fuels and sustainable fuels, motorsports, very keen on it and pursuing it. Any thoughts?
Fred & Drea Warner: Yeah, so it's definitely an area we're looking at. there's quite a lot of conversation going on with the colleagues in R &D. And in fact, last year, our R &D colleagues worked with counterparts at BMW, Toyota, and Bosch, think, to do what they called the Tour of Europe. So using a vehicle that ran on carbon neutral fuels to drive around Europe and demonstrated the sort of...
Inperson 1: Yeah, so it's definitely an area we're looking at. there's quite a lot of conversation going on with the colleagues in R &D. And in fact, last year, our R &D colleagues worked with counterparts at BMW, Toyota, and Bosch, think, to do what they called the Tour of Europe. So using a vehicle that ran on neutral fuels to drive around Europe and demonstrated the sort of...
Fred & Drea Warner: carbon neutral mileage it could get, which was showcasing that you can use these in existing vehicles. So there's definitely an opportunity around that legacy fleet that you mentioned. And I think people are holding onto their cars for longer and longer. We'll have those people that go, I don't want to buy an EV or a hybrid. So what do we do to help them reduce their emissions? So that's probably where there's a role for those fuels. I think also for applications that are hard to electrify, motorcycles are a good example, potentially some...
Inperson 1: carbon neutral mileage it could get, which was showcasing that you can use these in existing vehicles. So there's definitely an opportunity around that legacy fleet that you mentioned. And I think people are holding onto their cars for longer and longer. We'll have those people that go, I don't want to buy an EV or a hybrid. So what do we do to help them reduce their emissions? So that's probably where there's a role for those fuels. I think also for applications that are hard to electrify, motorcycles are good example, potentially some...
Fred & Drea Warner: construction equipment and so on will be hard to electrify. Definitely a role for low carbon fuels there. But I think there's a role for governments to be supporting R &D into developing those fuels and making sure the rules and regulations around them are correct. So we know in Europe, in the discussion around the European CO2 regulation, there's discussion around how do we define a car that runs only on sustainable fuels.
Inperson 1: construction equipment and so on will be hard to electrify. Definitely a role for low carbon fuels there. But I think there's a role for governments to be supporting R &D into developing those fuels and making sure the rules and regulations around them are correct. So we know in Europe, in the discussion around the European CO2 regulation, there's discussion around how do we define a car that runs only on sustainable fuels.
Fred & Drea Warner: And what's the technology and the systems that we have to put into place into that vehicle to make sure that's what's happening and people aren't just shoving petrol in it. So I think it's a fascinating area, but still in its early days. And I think a lot of work to be done to make sure it works right, that it's economical, that the scales there of those fuels. So there's a risk a little bit sometimes, I think, that these carbon neutral fuels, if they're not developed at scale and at mass and an affordable price point, maybe they become,
Inperson 1: And what's the technology and the systems that we have to put into place into that vehicle to make sure that's what's happening and people aren't just shoving petrol in it. So I think it's a fascinating area, but still in its early days. And I think a lot of work to be done to make sure it works right, that it's economical, that the scales there of those fuels. So there's a risk a little bit sometimes, I think, that these carbon neutral fuels, if they're not developed at scale and at mass and an affordable price point, maybe they become,
Fred & Drea Warner: for some rich guy's Porsche on a Sunday, he can continue to do that, but is it available to the little guys, you were saying? So I think that's an interesting question we need to flesh out. Yeah, and certainly from in terms of the infrastructure, it's already there, you just need to fill it with the e-fuel and you can carry on. Well, I mean, thank you so much for joining me today, Patrick. It's been wonderful to have you on. Is there anything you want to say about Honda in Europe and what you're hoping for in the next?
Inperson 1: for some rich guy's Porsche on a Sunday, he can continue to do that, but is it available to the little guys, you were saying? So I think that's an interesting question we need to flesh out. Yeah, and certainly from in terms of the infrastructure, it's already there, you just need to fill it with the E-field and you can carry on. Well, I mean, thank you so much for joining me today, Patrick. It's been wonderful to have you on. Is there anything you want to say about Honda in Europe and what you're hoping for in the next?
Fred & Drea Warner: Six to twelve months. Yes, I think, as we said, there's a lot going on. But I think my message that I continue to push the regulators in London or Brussels is, as you're setting policy, always put the customer first. At Honda, we're a customer-focused company. Let's think about what people need to help them move into sustainable mobility and not just be focused purely on sustainability being around electric cars. What are the role of hybrids? What are the role of motorcycles? What are the role of e-bikes? Let's look at it holistically and not just pull one lever. Let's pull as many levers as we can.
Inperson 1: Six to 12 months. Yes, I think, as we said, there's a lot going on. But I think my message that I continue to push the regulators in London or Brussels is, as you setting policy, always put the customer first. At Honda, we're a customer-focused company. Let's think about what people need to help them move into sustainable mobility and not just be focused purely on sustainability being around electric cars. What are the role of hybrids? What are the role of motorcycles? What are the role of e-bikes? Let's look at it holistically and not just pull one lever. Let's pull as many levers as we can.
Fred & Drea Warner: Well thank you so much for joining me. you've been watching and listening to Future Engineering Bets. Please do share this episode with other people that are going to find it interesting. Do like and follow. Have a look at what Honda Europe are doing and look at Patrick online. And I'll see you on the next episode.
Inperson 1: Well thank you so much for joining me. you've been watching and listening to Future Engineering Bets. Please do share this episode with other people that are going to find it interesting. Do like and follow. Have a look at what Honda Europe are doing and look at Patrick online. And I'll see you on the next episode.
Inperson 1: the critical question now is the short-term question. How does the industry survive between now and 2030? How does it get over the hurdle of the coming years?
Fred & Drea Warner: I also believe it's a precursor to most people feel big brother monitoring because the next argument will be well, in order to accurately monitor this, we need to put a little box in your car and you need to be telling us exactly how many miles you're doing, which is then a precursor to being, well, now we know exactly where you are, how fast you're going, when you're speeding, when you're not. And it feels like it's just an excuse of a precursor to more control in the future.
Inperson 1: I also believe it's a precursor to most people feel big brother monitoring because the next argument will be well, in order to accurately monitor this, we need to put a little box in your car and you need to be telling us exactly how many miles you're doing, which is then a precursor to being, well, now we know exactly where you are, how fast you're going, when you're speeding, when you're not. And it feels like it's just an excuse of a precursor to more control in the future.
Fred & Drea Warner: But government just saying, well, we've chosen the technology. This is the technology. Everybody has to use it, irrespective of what the customer wants. That's never going to work.
Inperson 1: But government just saying, well, we've chosen the technology. This is the technology. Everybody has to use it, irrespective of what the customer wants. That's never going to work.
Fred & Drea Warner: And I think if you applied that approach in other industries, it would feel a bit ludicrous. Probably people in this country should be eating more fruit and vegetables, but we don't say to Sainsbury's 50 % of your sales has to be apples.
Inperson 1: And I think if you applied that approach in other industries, it would feel a bit ludicrous. Probably people in this country should be eating more fruit and vegetables, but we don't say to Sainsbury's 50 % of your sales has to be apples.
Fred & Drea Warner: it creates a monopoly because if there's only a couple of players in the market and they're private, you're now into a monopoly situation where they can influence the price to their benefit, not the consumer benefit.
Inperson 1: it creates a monopoly because if there's only a couple of players in the market and they're private, you're now into a monopoly situation where they can influence the price to their benefit, not the consumer benefit.
Fred & Drea Warner: and I believe that that is a discussion point that says, why don't we protect the users a little bit more and cap how much margin?
Inperson 1: and I believe that that is a discussion point that says, why don't we protect the users a little bit more and cap how much margin?
Fred & Drea Warner: the private companies are allowed to boot onto people I really passionately feel that the little person, the everyday person that earns the least wages is getting stiffed the most.
Inperson 1: the private companies are allowed to boot onto people I really passionately feel that the little person, the everyday person that earns the least wages is getting stiffed the most.
Fred & Drea Warner: And what we would say is picking an arbitrary date to completely end the sale of non-ZEVs.
Inperson 1: And what we would say is picking an arbitrary date to completely end the sale of non-ZEVs.
Fred & Drea Warner: doesn't really feel right. quote our colleagues over at Toyota, their view is carbon is the enemy, not the powertrain. So we need to be doing everything we can to make sure the consumer has access to
Inperson 1: doesn't really feel right. quote our colleagues over at Toyota, their view is carbon is the enemy, not the powertrain. So we need to be doing everything we can to make sure the consumer has access to
Fred & Drea Warner: the lower or sustainable powertrain that works for them,
Inperson 1: the lower or sustainable powertrain that works for them,
Fred & Drea Warner: Hello everybody and welcome to another episode of Future Engineering Bets where we talk about advanced engineering and its applications in the future in automotive and mobility, electrification, and in particular where people are going to be investing their capital.
Inperson 1: everybody and welcome to another episode of Future Engineering Bets where we talk about advanced engineering and its applications in the future in automotive and mobility, electrification, and in particular where people are going to be investing their capital.
Fred & Drea Warner: and wondering about what's going to happen in the future. Today, I'm very excited to be joined by Patrick Keating of Honda Europe, and he's the head of external affairs at Honda Europe. Patrick, welcome to the show. Thank you very much. Excited to be here. Thank you. And we're very excited to talk with you. We're at a very interesting point in the electrification journey in that the UK government is about to review the ZEV mandate that's really seen as crushing the
Inperson 1: and wondering about what's going to happen in the future. Today, I'm very excited to be joined by Patrick Keating of Honda Europe, and he's the head of external affairs at Honda Europe. Patrick, welcome to the show. Thank you very much. Excited to be here. Thank you. And we're very excited to talk with you. We're at a very interesting point in the electrification journey in that the UK government is about to review the ZEV mandate that's really seen as crushing the
Fred & Drea Warner: automotive OEMs at the moment in Europe and the UK. Can you tell me a bit about what you're thinking as we come up to this space? Yeah, it's a really timely question. So we expect government to announce a consultation on reviewing the mandate in the coming days. that's something that manufacturers have been asking for for probably over a year now. We're seeing really a disconnect between the growth of EV sales in the market in the real world and the trajectory that set
Inperson 1: automotive OEMs at the moment in Europe and the UK. Can you tell me a bit about what you're thinking as we come up to this space? Yeah, it's a really timely question. So we expect government to announce a consultation on reviewing the mandate in the coming days. that's something that manufacturers have been asking for for probably over a year now. We're seeing really a disconnect between the growth of EV sales in the market in the real world and the trajectory that set
Fred & Drea Warner: in this UK regulation. EV sales are growing and that's brilliant, that's great. This is not an anti-EV pitch. It's about making sure that the rules and the targets that we have to meet on the supply side match what people actually want out there in the market. And I think the new government is realising there is a gap and closing that gap is putting a lot of costs onto manufacturers, not just UK manufacturers, but anybody active in the UK market. That's pressing down on competitiveness.
Inperson 1: in this UK regulation. EV sales are growing and that's brilliant, that's great. This is not an anti-EV pitch. It's about making sure that the rules and the targets that we have to meet on the supply side match what people actually want out there in the market. And I think the new government is realising there is a and closing that gap is putting a lot of costs on to manufacturers, not just UK manufacturers, but anybody active in the UK market. That's pressing down on competitiveness.
Fred & Drea Warner: it's not a good deal for the automotive industry. a pragmatic approach, looking at those targets, looking at what we have to achieve between now and 2030. What does 2035 look like when there's this supposed ban on internal combustion engines? Just stepping back, taking a beat, and having a think, does this work? But not just does the regulation on the supply side work, but what about all the other levers in terms of demands, incentives, charging, infrastructure? Just consumer appetite. Are all those on track as well?
Inperson 1: is not a good deal for the automotive industry. a pragmatic approach, looking at those targets, looking at what we have to achieve between now and 2030. What does 2035 look like when there's this supposed ban on internal combustion engines? Just stepping back, taking a beat, and having a think, does this work? But not just does the regulation on the supply side work, but what about all the other levers in terms of demands, incentives, charging, infrastructure? Just consumer appetite. Are all those on track as well?
Fred & Drea Warner: really hoping to have a good and sort of open discussion with government in the coming weeks about how we make sure this set of legislation actually works and meets the real world. It's very challenging times for automotive OEMs and has been recently and just for the sake of the listener I'm going to quote a few sort of mandate items so they get an appreciation. So in 2035 the UK mandated that all vehicles have to be ZEV which is zero emission vehicles.
Inperson 1: really hoping to have a good and sort of open discussion with government in the coming weeks about how we make sure this set of legislation actually works and meets the real world. It's very challenging times for automotive OEMs and has been recently and I just for the sake of the listener I'm going to quote a few sort of mandate items so they get an appreciation. So in 2035 the UK mandated that all vehicles have to be ZEV which is zero emission vehicles.
Fred & Drea Warner: interesting, we'll come on to Europe shifted and we'll talk about that. But really 2026 you're expected to hit 33 % sales when you're actually around about 25%. Noting that 25 % is pretty good. But then you're also faced with fines for vehicles that don't meet the mandates of around 12,000 pound a vehicle, maybe 15,000 pound a van, which are very punitive measures for automotive. So
Inperson 1: interesting, we'll come on to Europe shifted and we'll talk about that. But really 2026 you're expected to hit 33 % sales when you're actually around about 25%. Noting that 25 % is pretty good. Let's not be faced. But then you're also faced with fines for vehicles that don't meet the mandates of around 12,000 pound of vehicle, maybe 15,000 pound van, which are very punitive measures for automotive. So
Fred & Drea Warner: When you're looking at this cycle of between now and 2035 and look, asking for a rethink, some people say, just lighten it up until 2030, but stick with the 2035 zero emission mandate. We're gonna talk around a few topics such as hybrids, fuel cell, e-fuels in this episode. What's your thoughts when people say, it's okay, just deal with the next two or three years as a short-termism, but keep the long-term goal?
Inperson 1: When you're looking at this cycle of between now and 2035 and look, asking for a rethink, some people say, just lighten it up until 2030, but stick with the 2035 zero emission mandate. We're gonna talk around a few topics such as hybrids, fuel cell, e-fuels in this episode. What's your thoughts when people say, it's okay, just deal with the next two or three years as a short-termism, but keep the long-term goal?
Fred & Drea Warner: I think you have to look at both questions. the critical question now is the short-term question. How does the industry survive between now and 2030? How does it get over the hurdle of the coming years? So that's the critical question. But you're right to look at the longer term. Automotive is an industry that works on long time scales. 2035 is basically tomorrow. And what we would say is picking an arbitrary date to completely end the sale of non-ZEVs.
Inperson 1: I think you have to look at both questions. the critical question now is the short-term question. How does the industry survive between now and 2030? How does it get over the hurdle of the coming years? So that's the critical question. But you're right to look at the longer term. Automotive is an industry that works on long time scales. 2035 is basically tomorrow. And what we would say is picking an arbitrary date to completely end the sale of non-ZEVs.
Fred & Drea Warner: doesn't really feel right. think what we would say is do the review now, look at the short term, but continue to review the regulation as we move towards 2030, as we move beyond 2030 to 2035. On a broader sense, Honda has always said we prefer what we call a multi-pathway approach. So quote our colleagues over at Toyota, their view is carbon is the enemy, not the powertrain. So we need to be doing everything we can to make sure the consumer has access to
Inperson 1: doesn't really feel right. think what we would say is do the review now, look at the short term, but continue to review the regulation as we move towards 2030, as we move beyond 2030 to 2035. On a broader sense, Honda has always said we prefer what we call a multi-pathway approach. So quote our colleagues over at Toyota, their view is carbon is the enemy, not the powertrain. So we need to be doing everything we can to make sure the consumer has access to
Fred & Drea Warner: the lower or sustainable powertrain that works for them, whether that's for some it'll be a hybrid, for others a plug-in, for some an electric vehicle. And sort of pulling a lever and saying 2035, the only thing you can buy is an EV, doesn't feel like it's very consumer oriented. It feels like 2035 is a bit of an abstract target. We need to keep on reviewing as we move towards that point. Yeah, and it's not just that it doesn't work for all the consumers, it's that there's a number of consumers in more edge cases.
Inperson 1: the lower or sustainable powertrain that works for them, whether that's for some it'll be a hybrid, for others a plug-in, for some an electric vehicle. And sort of pulling a lever and saying 2035, the only thing you can buy is an EV, doesn't feel like it's very consumer oriented. It feels like 2035 is a bit of an abstract target. We need to keep on reviewing as we move towards that point. Yeah, and it's not just that it doesn't work for all the consumers, it's that there's a number of consumers in more edge cases.
Fred & Drea Warner: that simply won't have a solution in 2035 that just hasn't been considered because the mandate's really been made around people living in towns with the need of small cars. Yeah, I think if at the current moment you're lucky enough to live in a home with off-street parking, your own driveway or another solution, you have a deal with an energy company that gives you cheap day-night charging or agile charging, then an EV's perfect.
Inperson 1: that simply won't have a solution in 2035 that just hasn't been considered because the mandate's really been made around people living in towns with the need of small cars. Yeah, I think at the current moment you're lucky enough to live in a home with off-street parking, your own driveway or another solution, you have a deal with an energy company that gives you cheap day-night charging or agile charging, then an EV's perfect.
Fred & Drea Warner: But if you're like me, you live in the countryside, my commute is 100 miles each way, so I'm doing a 200 mile round trip. I have the ability to charge at home, but I'm driving a plug-in hybrid now, so I have the ability to charge at home, get cheap miles, free electric miles, my job's around where I live. And then when I come into Bracknell, I can rely on the petrol engine to get me there and back without worrying about plugging in and charging. And I think there's always gonna be those edge cases. think sometimes, as you said, we're thinking,
Inperson 1: But if you're like me, you live in the countryside, my commute is 100 miles way, so I'm doing a 200 mile round trip. have the ability to charge at home, but I'm driving a plug-in hybrid now, so I have the ability to charge at home, get cheap miles, free electric miles, my job's around where I live. And then when I come into Bracknell, I can rely on the petrol engine to get me there and back without worrying about plugging in and charging. And I think there's always gonna be those edge cases. think sometimes, as you said, we're thinking,
Fred & Drea Warner: about this policy in the context of people living in cities. But I grew up in Scotland, which can have some pretty wild and remote places where maybe there isn't going to be easy access to charging. But also, Honda, we're thinking more globally. So in Europe, think we're quite lucky to be fairly affluent to have the ability to put in place charging. But I think there's parts of the world where charging infrastructure is just never going to come down the road. And we need to be thinking about those technologies that port people's.
Inperson 1: about this policy in the context of people living in cities. But grew up in Scotland, which can have some pretty wild and remote places where maybe there isn't going to be easy access to charging. But also, Honda, we're thinking more globally. So in Europe, think we're quite lucky to be fairly affluent to have the ability to put in place charging. But I think there's parts of the world where charging infrastructure is just never going to come down the road. And we need to be thinking about those technologies that port people's.
Fred & Drea Warner: mobility because at the end of the day it's about ensuring that people can be mobile they can get around and live their lives do their jobs in an affordable and accessible way. Yeah and I think it's a really interesting point when we go into Europe that this is a global challenge and to think about it in a very isolated way which currently the UK looks like it's quite isolated doesn't seem very pragmatic and it's very relevant to say that a huge proportion of the world will never end up
Inperson 1: mobility because at the end of the day it's about ensuring that people can be mobile they can get around and live their lives do their in an affordable and accessible way. Yeah and I think it's a really interesting point when we go into Europe that this is a global challenge and to think about it in a very isolated way which currently the UK looks like it's quite isolated doesn't seem very pragmatic and it's very relevant to say that a huge proportion of the world will never end up
Fred & Drea Warner: with a significant EV charging infrastructure and will likely end upon some form of synthetic e-fuel or hybrid powertrain, likely being, and not a plug-in hybrid powertrain, in order to support their long-term needs. So going a totally different direction to the whole global community when you take it as a single piece doesn't necessarily make sense for the UK people, UK population long-term, because that likely means the UK cost of living is going to be pushed up as they end up in a different place to everybody else.
Inperson 1: with a significant EV charging infrastructure and will likely end upon some form of synthetic e-fuel or hybrid powertrain, likely being, and not a plug-in hybrid powertrain, in order to support their long-term needs. So going a totally different direction to the whole global community when you take it as a single piece doesn't necessarily make sense for the UK people, UK population long-term, because that likely means the UK cost of living is going to be pushed up as they end up in a different place to everybody else.
Fred & Drea Warner: Yeah, think you're right to look at the global picture. And I think the global picture has changed so much in the last few years, particularly looking at North America. So for a lot of OEMs, North America is a large market. A lot of companies are thinking, how do we supply EV into the North American market? Obviously, under the new administration, it's not that new anymore. There's been significant rule change, which means a lot of investment's been postponed or reallocated, which means there are fewer EVs in the supply.
Inperson 1: Yeah, think you're right to look at the global picture. And I think the global picture has changed so much in the last few years, particularly looking at North America. So for a lot of OEMs, North America is a large market. A lot of companies are thinking, how do we supply EV into the North American market? Obviously, under the new administration, it's not that new anymore. There's been significant rule change, which means a lot of investment's been postponed or reallocated, which means there are fewer EVs in the supply.
Fred & Drea Warner: which means potentially it's harder to supply EV into the UK market from global sources. And I think that applies across the board, which again, when we're looking at the ZEV mandate review, there's a very different global picture around the economics of EV supply chains than there was a few years ago when this regulation was being put into force. So I think again, that's why government needs to take account of it. As you say, there'll be different powertrains that work for different parts of the world.
Inperson 1: means potentially it's harder to supply EV into the UK market from global sources. And I think that applies across the board, which again, when we're looking at the ZEV mandate review, there's a very different global picture around the economics of EV supply chains than there was a few years ago when this regulation was being put into force. So I think again, that's why government needs to take account of it. As you say, there'll be different powertrains that work for different parts of the world.
Fred & Drea Warner: I don't know, in Sub-Saharan Africa or Kazakhstan, you're going to have a very different approach to this than somebody who happens to live in London or Amsterdam or Paris and has access to all this great infrastructure charging. So that's why, again, we can't rule out any technology or any powertrain. I think we need to keep on looking at all the opportunities and not just myopically focus on pure battery electric, which is, again, a great technology. has a definitely, you the future is electric.
Inperson 1: I don't know, in Sub-Saharan Africa or Kazakhstan, you're going to have a very different approach to this than somebody who happens to live in London or Amsterdam or Paris and has access to all this great infrastructure charging. So that's why, again, we can't rule out any technology or any powertrain. I think we need to keep on looking at all the opportunities and not just myopically focus on pure battery electric, which is, again, a great technology. has a definitely, you the future is electric.
Fred & Drea Warner: for most people, but not necessarily for everyone. And it's interesting when you talk about that, when you look at Europe, they've shifted their policies from 100 % mandate in 2035 to a 90%, which allows this flexibility in powertrain options. Honda's had to go through one of the largest write downs in its history, one of the first years, I think, in its history that it made a loss overall as a global organisation. When people set in place these regulations and the automotive companies lined up with them,
Inperson 1: for most people, but not necessarily for everyone. And it's interesting when you talk about that, when you look at Europe, they've shifted their policies from 100 % mandate in 2035 to a 90%, which allows this flexibility in powertrain options. Honda's had to go through one of the largest write downs in its history, one of the first years, I think, in its history that it made a loss overall as a global organisation. When people set in place these regulations and the automotive companies lined up with them,
Fred & Drea Warner: and set their product development cycles to line up with them. The lack of alignment with the consumer demand was not necessarily considered by all the automotive OEMs in so much as they assumed that everyone would be buying in accordance with government targets. They'd not. That's left the automotive OEMs carrying the loss. And that write down has been absolutely massive. know partly because in North America you've had to write off plans of selling cars in Europe. Sales have been behind.
Inperson 1: and set their product development cycles to line up with them. The lack of alignment with the consumer demand was not necessarily considered by all the automotive OEMs in so much as they assumed that everyone would be buying in accordance with government targets. They'd not. That's left the automotive OEMs carrying the loss. And that write down has been absolutely massive. know partly because in North America you've had to write off plans of selling cars in Europe. Sales have been behind.
Fred & Drea Warner: Where does it sit for you in terms of seeing the European mandate shift? Has it got to a place that you think this is practical? And if we want to align with it, would you make further improvements to the European mandate as well? Yeah, I think we would look. in Europe, it's still a live discussion. So we've seen a proposal from the Commission to give us that 90 % target in 2035. But that 10 % reduction is actually in the initial proposal.
Inperson 1: Where does it sit for you in terms of seeing the European mandate shift? Has it got to a place that you think this is practical? And if we want to align with it, would you make further improvements to the European mandate as well? Yeah, I think we would look. in Europe, it's still a live discussion. So we've seen a proposal from the Commission to give us that 90 % target in 2035. But that 10 % reduction is actually in the initial proposal.
Fred & Drea Warner: Surrounded by all sorts of conditionality so you can get that reduction of you use green steel Whatever that says there's a lot of connection between getting flexibilities under the European regulation with this idea of EVs being made in Europe So a little bit of a protectionist approach so on looking at the tin It seemed like 90% bit of flexibility bit of pragmatism But when you open up and start to look at the detail, it's not quite as rosy a story so one of the things that we
Inperson 1: Surrounded by all sorts of conditionality so you can get that reduction of you use green steel Whatever that says there's a lot of connection between getting flexibilities under the European regulation with this idea of EV's being made in Europe So a little bit of a protectionist approach so on looking at the tin It seemed like 90 % bit of flexibility bird pragmatism But when you open up and start to look at the detail, it's not quite as rosy a story so one of the things that we
Fred & Drea Warner: by we, mean the entire industry in Brussels have been working on is as that proposal goes through the regulatory process and the rulemaking process, trying to push a little bit more to say, we remove some of those conditions or make them a little bit more reasonable so that 90 % reduction is really a reduction to 90 % rather than something that's just a bit cosmetic. And I think rulemakers in Brussels understand that if you look at the news, see
Inperson 1: by we, mean the entire industry in Brussels have been working on is as that proposal goes through the regulatory process and the rulemaking process, trying to push a little bit more to say, we remove some of those conditions or make them a little bit more reasonable so that 90 % reduction is really a reduction to 90 % rather than something that's just a bit cosmetic. And I think rulemakers in Brussels understand that if you look at the news, see
Fred & Drea Warner: job losses in Germany, the industry across Europe is under significant pressure. And I think the policymakers, particularly in the European Parliament, are starting to understand that. through the rest of 2026, hopefully we'll see those rules in Europe become much more pragmatic, much more open, and open to a range of technologies and a range of power trains, not just being purely focused on EV.
Inperson 1: job losses in Germany, the industry across Europe is under significant pressure. And I think the policymakers, particularly in the European Parliament, are starting to understand that. 2026, hopefully we'll see those rules in Europe become much more pragmatic, much more open, and open to a range of technologies and a range of power trains, not just being purely focused on EV.
Fred & Drea Warner: And it would be great if the UK could look to try and align with that. Europe is still one region despite Brexit. It's still almost a common market for automotive. So the more that those rules are aligned, the better the industry can function and be competitive.
Inperson 1: And it would be great if the UK could look to try and align with that. Europe is still one region despite Brexit. still almost a common market for automotive. So the more that those rules are aligned, the better the industry can function and be competitive.
Fred & Drea Warner: So when you talk about the 90 % mandate in Europe that's been discussed as you rightly point out, when we talk about tailpipe emissions versus the overall cycle of the manufacturer, some of what I perceive in the EV journey so far has been almost hypocritical that somebody can end up driving around a three to four tonne SUV under the quotation marks,
Inperson 1: So when you talk about the 90 % mandate in Europe that's been discussed as you rightly point out, when we talk about tailpipe emissions versus the overall cycle of the manufacturer, some of what I perceive in the EV journey so far has been almost hypocritical that somebody can end up driving around a three to four tonne SUV under the quotation marks,
Fred & Drea Warner: clean electric vehicle tax-free or tax-reduced on the UK government or other governments when a 14, 1600 kilogram ICE overall seems a far more efficient use of materials, cradle to grave, as well as the overall footprint over time. Now know there's strong arguments to say EV cleans itself up after 10, 15,000 miles or whatever the exact number is.
Inperson 1: clean electric vehicle tax-free or tax-reduced on the UK government or other governments when a 14, 1600 kilogram ICE overall seems a far more efficient use of materials, cradle to grave, as well as the overall footprint over time. Now know there's strong arguments to say EV cleans itself up after 10, 15,000 miles or whatever the exact number is.
Fred & Drea Warner: but it seems hypocritical that everybody's used it as an excuse to make things very heavy. The average car's 500 kilograms often heavier than its ice counterpart. Streets are being trashed. Buses leave holes in the ground where the EV buses pull up and they leave holes in the bus stops. It's not been thought through necessarily at this point that it needs considered not just the tailpipe, but yeah, the total life cycle of the product. Yeah, and I think that's true across the piece. And I think definitely
Inperson 1: but it seems hypocritical that everybody's used it as an excuse to make things very heavy. The average car's 500 kilograms often heavier than its ice counterpart. Streets are being trashed. Bushes leave holes in the ground where the EV buses pull up and they leave holes in the bus stops. It's not been thought through necessarily at this point that it needs considered not just the tailpipe, but yeah, the total life cycle of the product. Yeah, and I think that's true across the piece. And I think definitely
Fred & Drea Warner: one of the things that we challenge policymakers to think about in all policy areas, not just this, but everything they're working on, is what is the broader contest? What is the broader impact? What are the unforeseen consequences, the second order consequences? And sometimes, and this is a personal bugbear, politicians like to pull the quick lever that says easy win, quick solution. Great, move everybody to the EVs, job's a goodun, but what about demand on the grid? As you say, what about the weight impact of EVs on the infrastructure?
Inperson 1: one of the things that we challenge policymakers to think about in all policy areas, not just this, but everything they're working on, is what is the broader contest? What is the broader impact? What are the unforeseen consequences, the second order consequences? And sometimes, and this is a personal bugbear, politicians like to pull the quick lever that says easy win, quick solution. Great, move everybody to the EVs, jobs are good, but what about demand on the grid? As you say, what about the weight impact of EVs on the infrastructure?
Fred & Drea Warner: on the roads, what about disposing of batteries? What about the production of EVs? I sometimes think some of those questions aren't necessarily addressed as deeply as they could be. Or if you try to raise those questions, then you're going, you're an anti-EV person. No, not at all, not in the least. But we need to think holistically. And I think the culture of companies like Honda where we think quite deeply, we have this approach we call the Five Whys.
Inperson 1: on the roads, about disposing of batteries? What about the production of EVs? I sometimes think some of those questions aren't necessarily addressed as deeply as they could be. Or if you try to raise those questions, then you're going, you're an anti-EV person. No, not at all, not in the least. But we need to think holistically. And I think the culture of companies like Honda where we think quite deeply, we have this approach we call the Five Whys.
Fred & Drea Warner: So when you're addressing a problem, ask why five times, and eventually you should get to the root cause. Don't just ask why once, because you won't get the right answer. And I think sometimes policymakers go, great, we'll pull this lever, we'll ask why once, here's a solution, and we don't get it. Diesel is a great example. I think in this country and in Europe as well, there was a big push by policymakers a few years ago. Everybody drive a diesel, fuel duty on diesel was reduced.
Inperson 1: So when you're addressing a problem, ask why five times, and eventually you should get to the root cause. Don't just ask why once, because you won't get the right answer. And I think sometimes policymakers go, great, we'll pull this lever, we'll ask why once, here's a solution, and we don't get it. Diesel is a great example. I think in this country and in Europe as well, there was a big push by policymakers a few years ago. Everybody drive a diesel, fuel duty on diesel was reduced.
Fred & Drea Warner: the messaging was moved to diesel and then a few years later, wait, that didn't quite work out. Everybody pulled away from diesel movement a different way. That confuses customers and it just creates this vacuum of uncertainty. I think my call to policymakers always is think a little bit more deeply, reflect a little bit more deeply, ask experts and ask those five whys to get to the situation. Or if you are gonna take a
Inperson 1: the messaging was moved to diesel and then a few years later, wait, that didn't quite work out. Everybody pulled away from diesel movement a different way. That confuses customers and it just creates this vacuum of uncertainty. I think my call to policymakers always is think a little bit more deeply, reflect a little bit more deeply, ask experts and ask those five whys to get to the situation. Or if you are gonna take a
Fred & Drea Warner: a measure saying we want more EVs on the roads. Well, okay, what do I have to do to make sure that I'm putting in place countermeasures to any potential negative impact? Yes, you're really going to reduce emissions. You'll help people reduce their fuel costs if they're driving EV. But have I thought about, do I need to give councils more budget for road repairs? Do I need to think about how insurance companies treat multi-story car parks that are going to be full of EVs? So it's a lot of questions that need to be worked through, and I'm not necessarily sure that they are at the moment.
Inperson 1: a measure saying we want more EVs on the roads. Well, okay, what do I have to do to make sure that I'm putting in place countermeasures to any potential negative impact? Yes, you're really going to reduce emissions. You'll help people reduce their fuel costs if they're driving EV. But have I thought about, do I need to give councils more budget for road repairs? Do I need to think about how insurance companies treat multi-story car parks that are going to be full of EVs? So it's a lot of questions that need to be worked through, and I'm not necessarily sure that they are at the moment.
Fred & Drea Warner: No, I don't think they have been. can certainly say that, even if you can't in terms of your position. But I don't think they have been. My other comment would be that quite often they rely on very academic leaning studies. That I would say as somebody who has worked in academic spin outs and high tech companies involving academia, that the practicalities aren't always considered, but they're very influential. Universities are very influential in policy making.
Inperson 1: No, I don't think they have been. can certainly say that, even if you can't in terms of your position. But I don't think they have been. My other comment would be that quite often they rely on very academic leaning studies. That I would say as somebody who has worked in academic spin outs and high tech companies involving academia, that the practicalities aren't always considered, but they're very influential. Universities are very influential in policy making.
Fred & Drea Warner: and often industry maybe doesn't get enough of a say and the reality of the consumer doesn't get enough of a say in said policy making. Yeah, 100 % agree. think it's true in both Brussels and London and I'm sure in other capitals as well. So a politician loves to get a nice well-researched study with an academic logo on it or something that's come from a think tank or an NGO and it's got nice charts and numbers and that's great. But does it reflect the real world experience
Inperson 1: and often industry maybe doesn't get enough of a say and the reality of the consumer doesn't get enough of a say in said policy making. Yeah, 100 % agree. think it's true in both Brussels and London and I'm sure in other capitals as well. So a politician loves to get a nice well-researched study with an academic logo on it or something that's come from a think tank or an NGO and it's got nice charts and numbers and that's great. But does it reflect the real world experience
Fred & Drea Warner: of people. I think the good example is at the Europe level we're seeing a lot of studies from lot of the NGOs saying charging is the problem, there's X number of chargers across Europe and they just push that raw number out. But when you look at people's real experience, well maybe across the entire EU there's a huge number of chargers and it's growing. But if I'm in an industrial estate in Charleroi trying to return a rental car and can't find one, that's a lived experience that's playing to my perception of.
Inperson 1: of people. I think the good example is at the Europe level we're seeing a lot of studies from lot of the NGOs saying charging is the problem, there's X number of charges across Europe and they just push that raw number out. But when you look at people's real experience, well maybe across the entire EU there's a huge number of charges and it's growing, but if I'm in industrial estate in Charlewau trying to return a rental car and can't find one, that's a lived experience that's playing to my perception of.
Fred & Drea Warner: of EVs and how easy they are to use. I think, again, it's getting policymakers to be out in the real world and not to send all daily mail about it for a bit of common sense and get practicality. Center of Westminster, every second lamppost is a charger. Brilliant. But you come down to where I live around Weston-super-Mare it's a very different situation. So be in the real world is what I always say.
Inperson 1: of EVs and how easy they are to use. I think, again, it's getting policymakers to be out in the real world and not to send all daily mail about it for a bit of common sense and get practicality. Center of Westminster, every second lamppost is a charger. Brilliant. But you come down to where I live around Western Super Mayor, it's a very different situation. So be in the real world is what I always say.
Fred & Drea Warner: There's life outside of London. There's life outside of London, surprisingly. It sometimes doesn't feel so in UK. it takes me naturally on to talking about governments really dictating technology rather than setting policies that really allow the technology people to define the technology, let the policymakers dictate targets that are in line with what people need but also are realistic. And I think one of the things this whole ZEV mandate really brings up
Inperson 1: There's life outside of London. There's life outside of London, surprisingly. It sometimes doesn't feel so in UK. it takes me naturally on to talking about governments really dictating technology rather than setting policies that really allow the technology people to define the technology, let the policymakers dictate targets that are in line with what people need but also are realistic. And I think one of the things this whole ZEV mandate really brings up
Fred & Drea Warner: is governments assuming that they understand technology enough to dictate the direction that everyone needs to go in when, like you talk about Honda wanting a multi-power train approach, which anybody that understands heavy duty goods like commercial vehicles, marine, aviation, rail, when you look at the complete picture, having a ZEV mandate that says everything's banned,
Inperson 1: is governments assuming that they understand technology enough to dictate the direction that everyone needs to go in when, like you talk about Honda wanting a multi-power train approach, which anybody that understands heavy duty goods like commercial vehicles, marine, aviation, rail, when you look at the complete picture, having a ZEV mandate that says everything's banned,
Fred & Drea Warner: You've got diggers on sites. It just goes on and on and on in the construction industry. There's so many industries that haven't been considered as to how they would run in 2035 onwards. What's your position on governments meddling in technology rather than what they actually understand? Yeah, I'm not a fan of it. think governments should never pick winners and they should never pick technologies. I think they should set a targeted direction.
Inperson 1: You've got diggers on sites. It just goes on and on and on in the construction industry. There's so many industries that haven't been considered as to how they would run in 2035 What's your position on governments meddling in technology rather than what they actually understand? Yeah, I'm not a fan of it. think governments should never pick winners and they should never pick technologies. I think they should set a targeted direction.
Fred & Drea Warner: They should say by 2050 we want to hit net zero. Great, that's a clear target. We understand the direction as Honda is a company that's got what we call action to triple zero. So essentially we will look to do no harm, reduce fatalities on the roads and accidents on the roads and reduce the amount of materials we're using. So really sustainability is at the core of what we do. So that direction is clear. But we're the ones making the products. We're the ones interacting with the customers.
Inperson 1: They should say by 2050 we want to net zero. Great, that's a clear target. We understand the direction as Honda is a company that's got what we call action to triple zero. So essentially we will look to do no harm, reduce fatalities on the roads and accidents on the roads and reduce the amount of materials we're using. So really sustainability is at the core of what we do. So that direction is clear. But we're the ones making the products. We're the ones interacting with the customers.
Fred & Drea Warner: We're the ones operating in the real world. Let us and our competitors choose the right technologies that will work. Sometimes that will fail, But let us fail. Because one of the things that our previous European president said is failure isn't bad. You fail, you learn, you move on. But government just saying, well, we've chosen the technology. This is the technology. Everybody has to use it, irrespective of what the customer wants. That's never going to work.
Inperson 1: We're the ones operating in the real world. Let us and our competitors choose the right technologies that will work. Sometimes that will fail, But let us fail. Because one of the things that our previous European president said is failure isn't bad. You fail, you learn, you move on. But government just saying, well, we've chosen the technology. This is the technology. Everybody has to use it, irrespective of what the customer wants. That's never going to work.
Fred & Drea Warner: because customer choice is so important. If I tell you, you have to buy this, this is the only option you have, a lot of customers will say, And then you risk people clinging onto their older cars. The best way you can achieve a carbon's reduction today is if somebody takes their 10-year-old car and trades it in for anything, immediate reduction in carbon, be it BEV or hybrid. So I think just let those customers make the right choice.
Inperson 1: because customer choice is so important. If I tell you, you have to buy this, this is the only option you have, a lot of customers will say, And then you risk people clinging onto their older cars. The best way you can achieve a carbon's reduction today is if somebody takes their 10-year-old car and trades it in for anything, immediate reduction in carbon, be it BEV or hybrid. So I think just let those customers make the right choice.
Fred & Drea Warner: that works for them, that gives them the technology that meets their daily needs and fits their lives. That's going be much more effective way to move towards reducing emissions from transport than simply saying, we have decided this is the technology that you want. And I think if you applied that approach in other industries, it would feel a bit ludicrous. Probably people in this country should be eating more fruit and vegetables, but we don't say to Sainsbury's 50 % of your sales has to be apples. It's really great point that is, Patrick. And also, when you look at
Inperson 1: that works for them, that gives them the technology that meets their daily needs and fits their lives. That's going be much more effective way to move towards reducing emissions from transport than simply saying, we have decided this is the technology that you want. And I think if you applied that approach in other industries, it would feel a bit ludicrous. Probably people in this country should be eating more fruit and vegetables, but we don't say to Sainsbury's 50 % of your sales has to be apples. It's really great point that is, Patrick. And also, when you look at
Fred & Drea Warner: I'm not sure. was trying to think earlier of a single other industry that has such onerous demands on its products and the reduction in CO2, in emissions. I can't think of another industry that has any such demands on them. They're expecting the OEMs to absorb and I think you made a really great point earlier in terms of there are huge amounts of redundancies happening across Europe already because of the drop in demand and the up kick in the Chinese market.
Inperson 1: I'm not sure. was trying to think earlier of a single other industry that has such onerous demands on its products and the reduction in CO2, in emissions. I can't think of another industry that has any such demands on them. They're expecting the OEMs to absorb and I think you made a really great point earlier in terms of there are huge amounts of redundancies happening across Europe already because of the drop in demand and the up kick in the Chinese market.
Fred & Drea Warner: and the issues seen in writing down the technologies and the EV platforms that have been slowed down in production, to say that the automotive industry has been punished would appear to be a fairly...
Inperson 1: and the issues seen in writing down the technologies and the EV platforms that have been slowed down in production, to say that the automotive industry has been punished would appear to be a fairly...
Fred & Drea Warner: fair statement based on facts? Yeah, punished is maybe a strong word but I think it's definitely a challenging time when you know look at my role and we're looking at all the regulation and policies coming towards the automotive industry. It's a huge list if you look at all the requirements that a car company has to meet in terms of the safety of the product, emissions, a lot more about data and connectivity that's all being regulated, the due diligence and sustainability requirements.
Inperson 1: statement based on facts? Yeah, punished is maybe a strong word but I think it's definitely a challenging time when you know look at my role and we're looking at all the regulation and policies coming towards the automotive industry. It's a huge list if you look at all the requirements that a car company has to meet in terms of the safety of the product, emissions, a lot more about data and connectivity that's all being regulated, the due diligence and sustainability requirements.
Fred & Drea Warner: It's a huge list of regulatory burdens that adds up and up and up and up. So I think the industry is definitely under challenge. I think there's some in the political world that realise that and are looking to support us, but I think not everybody gets it. And I think there are some who I don't necessarily agree with who say, well, if we keep on pushing you towards electrification, that will help you win this global race against other regions. I'm not convinced that's the right direction. Again, I say, let the companies.
Inperson 1: It's a huge list of regulatory burdens that adds up and up and up and up. So I think the industry is definitely under challenge. I think there's some in the political world that realise that and are looking to support us, but I think not everybody gets it. And I think there are some who I don't necessarily agree with who say, well, if we keep on pushing you towards electrification, that will help you win this global race against other regions. I'm not convinced that's the right direction. Again, I say, let the companies.
Fred & Drea Warner: take the approach that they think will work and resonate with their customers because we're the ones that know our customers and know our market and know the technology the best. Absolutely, I can't agree with you more Patrick. So that takes me on to the infrastructure question and what I class as the poverty premium in public infrastructure and public EV charging specifically. So when you look at some of the statistics, so there's 5 % VAT on home electrics, so people with driveways,
Inperson 1: take the approach that they think will work and resonate with their customers because we're the ones that our customers and know our market and know the technology the best. Absolutely, I can't agree with you more Patrick. So that takes me on to the infrastructure question and what are classes of the poverty premium in public infrastructure and public EV charging specifically. So when you look at some of the statistics, so there's 5 % VAT on home electrics, so people with driveways,
Fred & Drea Warner: can charge their vehicle on a drive, they get cheap electric, maybe an overnight tariff, but certainly seven, eight pence a kilowatt, then they pay 5 % VAT on that. So they're making significant savings. But people with driveways don't represent the vast majority of society. Now everybody else is paying not only 20 % VAT on the electric, but the public charging infrastructure, there is zero regulation on pricing, which means people are paying 60, 70, 80, 90 pence a kilowatt, which is often more expensive than its petrol.
Inperson 1: can charge their vehicle on a drive, they get cheap electric, maybe an overnight tariff, but certainly seven, eight pence a kilowatt, then they pay 5 % VAT on that. So they're making significant savings. But people with driveways don't represent the vast majority of society. Now everybody else is paying not only 20 % VAT on the electric, but the public charging infrastructure, is zero regulation on pricing, which means people are paying 60, 70, 80, 90 pence a kilowatt, which is often more expensive than its petrol.
Fred & Drea Warner: counterpart and there's no control. So whilst the government mandate really controls what the automotive is meant to be selling to people, there is zero control on the cost of fuel for what I class as people that are everyday people, most commonly live in flats, terraced houses, you know those streets where you drive down and cars are parked on every single bit of pavement, bit of grass, all over the place, maybe in multi-stories. It's simply not as realistic as the dream of
Inperson 1: counterpart and there's no control. So whilst the government mandate really controls what the automotive is meant to be selling to people, there is zero control on the cost of fuel for what I class as people that are everyday people, most commonly live in flats, terraced houses, know those streets where you drive down and cars are parked on every single bit of pavement, bit of grass, all over the place, maybe in multi-stories. It's simply not as realistic as dream of
Fred & Drea Warner: driving on your driveway and plugging in. That's not most people's reality. It's not. It's not. And I think I recognise that. I'm lucky enough to have a house with a driveway. But the village I live in, it's a range. So there's some people that have a house with a driveway. There's some people that live in lovely ancient cottages that have no driveway, that have curbside parking. And then we've got, as you say, the streets with a turning circle, wherever he's parked in the grass and on the verges. So there's a really, I think, the word I would almost use is about equity.
Inperson 1: driving on your driveway and plugging in. That's not most people's reality. It's not. It's not. And I think I recognise that. I'm lucky enough to have a house with a driveway. But the village I live in, it's a range. So there's some people that have a house with a driveway. There's some people that live in lovely ancient cottages that have no driveway, that have curbside parking. And then we've got, as you say, the streets with a turning circle, wherever he's parked in the grass and on the verges. So there's a really, I think, the word I would almost use is about equity.
Fred & Drea Warner: Is there charging equity? And I would say there isn't. So again, you know, the raw number of public chargers across the country and across Europe may be right, but are they properly distributed? I think on the pricing piece, I'm never one to call for price controls or price caps. I'm a bit more libertarian than that. But I think there is a real role for price transparency. So when you're driving down the motorway or you're driving around town, you'll see at any petrol station, you'll see the price of diesel, you'll see the price of petrol. You can go on loads of apps and...
Inperson 1: Is there charging equity? And I would say there isn't. So again, you know, the raw number of public charges across the country and across Europe may be right, but are they properly distributed? I think on the pricing piece, I'm never one to call for price controls or price caps. I'm a bit more libertarian than that. But I think there is a real role for price transparency. So when you're driving down the motorway or you're driving around town, you'll see at any petrol station, you'll see the price of diesel, you'll see the price of petrol. You can go on loads of apps and...
Fred & Drea Warner: and see, okay, I could go to the Shell station, that's gonna give you a discount over BP, as an example. But you don't really have that for EV charging. So if you're driving down the motorway, do you go, I'll stop at Membury services, or I'll hang on and pull off the motorway and go to this other one. That transparency isn't there, so I think there's definitely a role for the regulator in ensuring that there is price transparency. Because as you say, sometimes you can charge up at a rapid charger and go, that was more expensive than a tank of petrol, that's not how this is.
Inperson 1: and see, okay, I could go to the Shell station, that's gonna give you a discount over BP, as an example. But you don't really have that for EV charging. So if you're driving down the motorway, do you go, I'll stop at memory services, or I'll hang on and pull off the motorway and go to this other one. That transparency isn't there, so I think there's definitely a role for the regulator in ensuring that there is price transparency. Because as you say, sometimes you can charge up at a rapid charger and go, that was more expensive than a tank of petrol, that's not how this is.
Fred & Drea Warner: meant to work. I think the other point you made on equalising VAT between home and public charging is spot on. It's almost quite regressive, isn't it, that people have a nice house with a driveway, are getting to charge their EV cheaper than the person on the terrace or on the turning circle. That's a conversation that the industry has been having with government for quite some time. Some parts of government have been sympathetic to the argument, but in the end, those that hold the pen over the budget haven't moved yet.
Inperson 1: meant to work. I think the other point you made equalising VAT between home and public charging is spot on. It's almost quite regressive, isn't it, that people have a nice house with a driveway, are getting to charge their EV cheaper than the person on the terrace or on the turning circle. That's a conversation that the industry has been having with government for quite some time. Some parts of government have been sympathetic to the argument, but in the end, those that hold the pen over the budget haven't moved yet.
Fred & Drea Warner: But I'm hoping that in time and maybe as part of this push to reduce cost of living, that's something that could be looked at. But again, if you're trying to get whole society moving towards a car with a plug in it, and you're not giving people that opportunity to charge at a reasonable price, it doesn't really play towards that. And I think the last thing I would say again about the distribution of charging is the car industry has a mandate on what we have to sell.
Inperson 1: But I'm hoping that in time and maybe as part of this push to reduce cost of living, that's something that could be looked at. But again, if you're trying to get whole society moving towards a car with a plug in it, and you're not giving people that opportunity to charge at a reasonable price, doesn't really play towards that. And I think the last thing I would say again about the distribution of charging is the car industry has a mandate on what we have to sell.
Fred & Drea Warner: The EV charging industry doesn't have a mandate on where they have to put their chargers. So they have an incentive to say, right, we'll put our chargers in the nice leafy suburbs of the centre of cities. I think they need to be pushed to be putting chargers into areas where there's not demand yet in order to give people reassurance. If I do go for an EV, there is a charger on my block. There is a charger in the Tesco's car park. But the EV industry needs to be pushed to put those in there ahead of demand. Maybe it'll be less profitable in the short term.
Inperson 1: The EV charging industry doesn't have a mandate on where they have to put their charges. So they have an incentive to say, right, we'll put our charges in the nice leafy suburbs of the center of cities. I think they need to be pushed to be putting charges into areas where there's not demand yet in order to give people reassurance. If I do go for an EV, there is a charger on my block. There is a charger in the Tesco's car park. But the EV industry needs to be pushed to put those in there ahead of demand. Maybe it'll be less profitable in the short term.
Fred & Drea Warner: but it helps to give that consumer confidence. There's some fantastic points there, Patrick. I'm going to pick up on one that I'm going to take a slightly different stance on, and that is the pricing point. So I get the libertarian sort of point of view on pricing. One of the things I see happening is that the public infrastructure is being put in by private companies. They want to return on their investment, clearly, to put the infrastructure in place. So to your point, they're choosing where to put those based on the highest demand, not on giving coverage.
Inperson 1: but it helps to give that consumer confidence. There's some fantastic points there, Patrick. I'm going to pick up on one that I'm going to take a slightly different stance on, and that is the pricing point. So I get the libertarian sort of point of view on pricing. One of the things I see happening is that the public infrastructure is being put in by private companies. They want to return on their investment, clearly, to put the infrastructure in place. So to your point, they're choosing where to put those based on the highest demand, not on giving coverage.
Fred & Drea Warner: to the population. So if you're in a city, maybe you're in a city suburb, you're gonna get the highest amount of people using it. So you shove your infrastructure there. You may well be meeting increases in numbers of chargers, but you're not creating extra coverage. It's like the classic phone network piece. However, when you start to look at the lack of pricing control, when you look at there's two or three companies particularly very active, I'm not gonna name them, but one of them begins with a capital O and is very active in the electricity industry.
Inperson 1: to the population. So if you're in a city, maybe you're a city suburb, you're gonna get the highest amount of people using it. So you shove your infrastructure there. You may well be meeting increases in numbers of charges, but you're not creating extra coverage. It's like the classic phone network piece. However, when you start to look at the lack of pricing control, when you look at there's two or three companies particularly very active, I'm not gonna name them, but one of them is going to capital O and is very active in the industry.
Fred & Drea Warner: while they're trying to have an app that consolidates all the chargers in the infrastructure, you've not only got more and more mouths to feed from the electricity company providing the electric to the infrastructure owner, to the app owner. So there's several mouths now taking out of it, but it creates a monopoly because if there's only a couple of players in the market and they're private, you're now into a monopoly situation where they can influence the price to their benefit, not the consumer benefit.
Inperson 1: while they're trying to have an app that consolidates all the charges in the infrastructure, you've not only got more and more mouths to feed from the electricity company providing the electric to the infrastructure owner, to the app owner. So there's several mouths now taking out of it, but it creates a monopoly because if there's only a couple of players in the market and they're private, you're now into a monopoly situation where they can influence the price to their benefit, not the consumer benefit.
Fred & Drea Warner: When I talked just before the meeting, I remember in the holiday sector, in holiday parks, when people are sold electricity from the holiday park, let's take a Park Dean, Haven holidays, they sell people a larger caravan, and there's a cap on how much they can upsell the electric through to the end user for the protection of the end user. And I wonder, and I believe that that is a discussion point that says, why don't we protect the users a little bit more and cap how much margin?
Inperson 1: When I talked just before the meeting, I remember in the holiday sector, in holiday parks, when people are sold electricity from the holiday park, let's take a Park Dean, Haven holidays, they sell people a larger caravan, and there's a cap on how much they can upsell the electric through to the end user for the protection of the end user. And I wonder, and I believe that that is a discussion point that says, why don't we protect the users a little bit more and cap how much margin?
Fred & Drea Warner: the private companies are allowed to boot onto people and also should the government not be thinking about a public app that actually allows you to go up to any public charger and pay something that's not controlled by a private company. And I think there's an argument there that says we've not really thought through that part of it because I really passionately feel that the little person, the everyday person that earns the least wages is getting stiffed the most.
Inperson 1: the private companies are allowed to boot onto people and also should the government not be thinking about a public app that actually allows you to go up to any public charger and pay something that's not controlled by a private company. And I think there's an argument there that says we've not really thought through that part of it because I really passionately feel that the little person, the everyday person that earns the least wages is getting stiffed the most.
Fred & Drea Warner: And a lot of the 25 % EV sales that we get now, it's fleet and it's company cars. And there's going to reach a point when we push from the company cars into the private sector, I haven't got the numbers in front of me how much is, how much of the private sales are current EV versus how much of company cars are EV. It's going to be harder and harder. The resistance gets higher pushing into private because we've simply not solved these problems. Because those people are worried, how do I pay 80, 90 pence a kilowatt whilst...
Inperson 1: And a lot of the 25 % EV sales that we get now, it's fleet and it's company cars. And there's going to reach a point when we push from the company cars into the private sector, I haven't got the numbers in front of me how much is, how much of the private sales are current EV versus how much of company cars are EV. It's going to be harder and harder. The resistance gets higher pushing into private because we've simply not solved these problems. Because those people are worried, how do I pay 80, 90 pence a kilowatt whilst...
Fred & Drea Warner: Bob down the road manages to put it through his drive and through his company and get all the tax benefits involved. Yeah, I think you identify the problem very, very quickly. And I think, again, as you say, as that adoption curve increases, you are going to meet more resistance as you enter it. And while we're now 25%, that's still the 75 % of sales to go, isn't there? So I think addressing that equity issue is...
Inperson 1: Bob down the road manages to put it through his drive and through his company and get all the tax benefits involved. Yeah, I think you sort identify the problem very, very quickly. And I think, again, as you say, as that adoption curve increases, you are going to meet more resistance as you enter it. And while we're now 25%, that's still the 75 % of sales to go, isn't there? So I think addressing that equity issue is...
Fred & Drea Warner: vital. Whether it's price caps, I don't know. And I think government needs to think about what levers it can pull. So when you look at petrol, they play with fuel duty, don't they, as a cost of living thing. Could they be doing the same with VAT on public charging? That's probably the easiest win, isn't it, is to equalise. They can reduce VAT. then in such a way that the operators don't just absorb that and pass on the VAT cut to the customer.
Inperson 1: vital. Whether it's price caps, I don't know. And I think government needs to think about what levers it can pull. So when you look at petrol, they play with fuel duty, don't they, as a cost of living thing. Could they be doing the same with VAT on public charging? That's probably the easiest win, isn't it, is to equalise. They can reduce that. then in such a way that the operators don't just absorb that and pass on the VAT cut to the customer.
Fred & Drea Warner: It's a problem that has to be addressed. I'm not enough of an energy economist to know the right solution. But there must be a way to do it. I think the cost of the EVs itself are coming down. So I think we are reaching a point where there's, on some models, price parity between a petrol car and its EV equivalent. So I think that issue is becoming more and more, or less of an issue. But I think you're right. It's that lack of equity in charging that's really going to hit people.
Inperson 1: It's a problem that has to be addressed. I'm not enough of an energy economist to know the right solution. there must be a way to do it. think the cost of the EVs itself are coming down. So I think we are reaching a point where there's, on some models, price parity between a petrol car and its EV equivalent. So I think that issue is becoming more and more, or less of an issue. But I think you're right. It's that lack of equity in charging that's really going to hit people.
Fred & Drea Warner: And I think as well when you look towards the future and we see in this country at least governments considering introducing a pay-per-mile charge for EVs to replace the lost fuel duty. Again, that feels a little bit regressive because some of the people who drive the most are the people that really rely on their cars. People getting to shifts at night shifts at four in the morning when there's no bus or people living in rural areas. That again feels a little bit regressive and plays against, you know.
Inperson 1: And I think as well when you look towards the future and we see in this country at least governments considering introducing a pay-per-mile charge for EVs to replace the last fuel duty. Again, that feels a little bit regressive because some of the people who drive the most are the people that really rely on their cars. People getting to shifts at night shifts at four in the morning when there's no bus or people living in rural areas. That again feels a little bit regressive and plays against, you know.
Fred & Drea Warner: an equitable transition to sustainable mobility. I absolutely agree. And you know what, we didn't cover that so far, but that single piece has caused quite a large amount of confusion because it doesn't just hit the EVs. They're going to have to plug in hybrid. They have as well. For those that are using the cycle, they're already paying the tax on the plug-in hybrid because it's got a petrol engine. And now they're going to pay an additional tax because when they're using it on EV mode, the government wants more money out of So I find it a very bizarre policy.
Inperson 1: an equitable transition to sustainable mobility. I absolutely agree. And you know what, we didn't cover that so far, but that single piece has caused quite a large amount of confusion because it doesn't just hit the EVs. They're going to have to plug in hybrid. They have as well. For those that are using the cycle, they're already paying the tax on the plug-in hybrid because it's got a petrol engine. And now they're going to pay an additional tax because when they're using it on EV mode, the government wants more money out of So I find it a very bizarre policy.
Fred & Drea Warner: that's causing confusion because people are now confused. And I also believe it's a precursor to most people feel big brother monitoring because the next argument will be well, in order to accurately monitor this, we need to put a little box in your car and you need to be telling us exactly how many miles you're doing, which is then a precursor to being, well, now we know exactly where you are, how fast you're going, when you're speeding, when you're not. And it feels like it's just an excuse of a precursor to more control in the future. And I think that really gets most people's backs up because
Inperson 1: that's causing confusion because people are now confused. And I also believe it's a precursor to most people feel big brother monitoring because the next argument will be well, in order to accurately monitor this, we need to put a little box in your car and you need to be telling us exactly how many miles you're doing, which is then a precursor to being, well, now we know exactly where you are, how fast you're going, when you're speeding, when you're not. And it feels like it's just an excuse of a precursor to more control in the future. And I think that really gets most people's backs up because
Fred & Drea Warner: this is meant to be something that's meant to be for the good of sustainability and it gets used for other ulterior motives. Yeah, I think in the most recent consultation on the pay per mile charge they were saying, well, we'll just check it at MOT time and it'll be a paper. But I think you're right. And I know there have been a few firms sort of doing the rounds saying, well, we have a solution that's a tech-based solution that we can use GPS and so on. And again, that feels a bit, yeah, it doesn't pass the smell test, does it?
Inperson 1: this is meant to be something that's meant to be for the good of sustainability and it gets used for other ulterior motives. Yeah, I think in the most recent consultation on the paper mile charge they were saying, well, we'll just check it at MOT time and it'll be a paper. But I think you're right. And I know there have been a few firms sort of doing the rounds saying, well, we have a solution that's a tech-based solution that we can use GPS and so on. And again, that feels a bit, yeah, it doesn't pass the smell test, does it?
Fred & Drea Warner: It's very invasive. It's very invasive. I think what we're saying and what the industry said is the pay-per-mile thing is just the wrong policy at the wrong time. Because again, we're still only at 25%. We've got a long way to go to get to 100. And you're sending a signal. And I think people are clever. People respond to signals. And they go, OK. Government's introducing a tax on this thing. Tax is a great way to disincentivise people from doing things.
Inperson 1: It's very invasive. It's very invasive. I think what we're saying and what the industry said is the pay-per-mile thing is just the wrong policy at the wrong time. Because again, we're still only at 25%. We've got a long way to go to get to 100. And you're sending a signal. And I think people are clever. People respond to signals. And they go, OK. Government's introducing a tax on this thing. Tax is a great way to disincentivise people from doing things.
Fred & Drea Warner: it's government departments playing against each other. Sure, in future, there will be less fuel duty because people will be driving fewer petrol cars and buying less petrol. Yes, that will have to be replaced in the future. But at the moment, your main priority is getting more people in EVs. Then don't be sending these signals at this time. I think there's almost a complacency that the trajectory set is all fair winds and plain sailing.
Inperson 1: it's government departments playing against each other. Sure, in future, there will be less fuel duty because people will be driving fewer petrol cars and buying less petrol. Yes, that will have to be replaced in the future. But at the moment, your main priority is getting more people in EVs. Then don't be sending these signals at this time. I think there's almost a complacency that the trajectory set is all fair winds and plain sailing.
Fred & Drea Warner: But I think it won't be if you keep on sending these incoherent or inconsistent signals to people. Absolutely. So let's move on to hybrids, fuel cell vehicles, and e-fuels, taking hybrids first. Honda's obviously very active in the space. part of the hope for the 90 % type target or a more pragmatic carbon reduction target would be that it allows both the plug-in hybrid, the FEV,
Inperson 1: But I think it won't be if you keep on sending these incoherent or inconsistent signals to people. Absolutely. So let's move on to hybrids, fuel cell vehicles, any fuels, taking hybrids first. Honda's obviously very active in the space. part of the hope for the 90 % type target or a more pragmatic carbon reduction target would be that it allows the plug-in hybrid, the FEV,
Fred & Drea Warner: and also the HEV, the hybrid vehicles, and there's various configurations and range extenders and all sorts of things that are in the market. How do you get it through to the policymakers that FEV delivers significant carbon savings, even when people are driving on petrol? Because it's still using regenerative braking, you've got the traffic moving. Anyone that's owned a hybrid that operates well knows that
Inperson 1: and also the HEV, the hybrid vehicles, and there's various configurations and range extenders and all sorts of things that are in the How do you get it through to the policymakers that FEV delivers significant carbon savings, even when people are driving on petrol? Because it's still using regenerative braking, you've got the traffic moving. Anyone that's owned a hybrid that operates well knows that
Fred & Drea Warner: rolling around towns on EV mode, getting extra energy from braking, it's a significant saving overall and it allows for the wide range of duty cycles that is practical for most people. so as you said, Honda is really leaning into full hybrid technology globally for a range of reasons. So one is providing people with reduced emissions at a much more accessible and affordable way.
Inperson 1: rolling around towns on EV mode, getting extra energy from braking, it's a significant saving overall and it allows for the wide range of duty cycles that is practical for most people. so as you said, Honda is really leaning into full hybrid technology a range of reasons. So one providing people with reduced emissions at a much more accessible and affordable way.
Fred & Drea Warner: you remove that entire infrastructure and charging issue by saying, put petrol in it. And as you drive it, the computer will work with the battery to deliver the most emissions reduction and electric miles possible. So it's brilliant. So for people who aren't necessarily ready to make the leap to an EV now, because of all the issues we've talked about, if you put them into a full hybrid, you're already delivering immediate emissions reductions, immediate sustainability, and getting them used to the idea of electrified driving.
Inperson 1: remove that entire infrastructure and charging issue by saying, put petrol in it. And as you drive it, the computer will work with the battery to deliver the most emissions reduction and electric miles possible. So it's brilliant. for people who aren't necessarily ready to make the leap to an EV now, because of all the issues we've talked about, if you put them into a full hybrid, you're already delivering immediate emissions reductions, immediate sustainability, and getting them used to the idea of electrified driving.
Fred & Drea Warner: And we see when people go full hybrid, they tend not to go back. And if you look at the numbers, I don't have them to hand. Full hybrid is a pretty significant share of new sales growing across the region. So there's a huge benefit there. And we think that technology has a role to play for the medium and the longer term. in this country, we know in 2030, government intends to end the sale of conventional petrol and diesel and allow something towards 2035.
Inperson 1: And we see when people go full hybrid, they tend not to go back. And if you look at the numbers, I don't have them to hand. Full hybrid is a pretty significant share of new sales growing across the region. So there's a huge benefit there. And we think that technology has a role to play for the medium and the longer term. in this country, we know in 2030, government intends to end the sale of conventional petrol and diesel and allow something towards 2035.
Fred & Drea Warner: One of the things that will be in the upcoming consultation is the definition of what exactly is the kind of hybrid that we can sell during that period. We would say that that definition should support full hybrid, not just plug-in with an arbitrary, if it does 80 kilometres on a charge, then it works. I think there's more nuance and subtle thinking needs to take place than that sort of arbitrary cutoff point. Plug-in hybrid technology also plays an important role.
Inperson 1: One of the things that will be in the upcoming consultation is the definition of what exactly is the kind of hybrid that we can sell during that period. We would say that that definition should support full hybrid, not just plug-in with an arbitrary, if it does 80 kilometres on a charge, then it works. I think there's more nuance and subtle thinking needs to take place than that sort of arbitrary cutoff point. Plug-in hybrid technology also plays an important role.
Fred & Drea Warner: I'm driving a plug-in now and as I was saying earlier, it's brilliant. So I can do about 80 kilometres on a charge, which gets me all my local journeys done around where I live and then switch to hybrid driving. I wouldn't say petrol driving, hybrid driving for the motorway segment. it delivers significant fuel savings, electric miles, and is a great technology. But I think we, as we're working on this policy, there is a lot of pushback from
Inperson 1: I'm driving a plug-in now and as I was saying earlier, it's brilliant. So I can do about 80 kilometres on a charge, which gets me all my local journeys done around where I live and then switch to hybrid driving. I wouldn't say petrol driving, hybrid driving for the motorway segment. it delivers significant fuel savings, electric miles, and is a great technology. But I think we, as we're working on this policy, there is a lot of pushback from
Fred & Drea Warner: from some and to come back to the academic studies. We see some academic studies saying, well, x percentage of people don't plug in their plug-in. Well, it's still in petrol mode running on the hybrid drivetrain. And I think a lot of people do plug it in. I think if you have the benefit of having cheap at home charging, you'd be stupid not to plug it in. It's just basic common sense economics. So there is a big role for these technologies that are,
Inperson 1: from some and to come back to the academic studies. We see some academic studies saying, well, x percentage of people don't plug in their plug-in. Well, it's still in petrol mode running on the hybrid drivetrain. And I think a lot of people do plug it in. think if you have the benefit of having cheap at home charging, you'd be stupid not to plug it in. It's just basic common sense economics. So there is a big role for these technologies that are,
Fred & Drea Warner: I wouldn't say they're transitional technology to fuel electric. I think they play a bigger role than a transition, but they do support people in moving into more sustainable mobility, starting to understand electrified mobility. Maybe as the next step they move into an EV, or maybe for them, hybrid is the perfect sweet spot. Some fantastic points in there. I particularly like talking around, A that hybrid vehicles are in hybrid mode when using petrol, as we've already talked about, and therefore it's not the same as when in a petrol car. People do see advantages of
Inperson 1: I wouldn't say they're transitional technology to fuel electric. I think they play a bigger role than a transition, but they do support people in moving into more sustainable mobility, starting to understand electrified mobility. Maybe as the next step they move into an EV, or maybe for them, hybrid is the perfect sweet spot. Some fantastic points in there. I particularly like talking around, that hybrid vehicles are in hybrid mode when using petrol, as we've already talked about, and therefore it's not the same as when in a petrol car. People do see advantages of
Fred & Drea Warner: charging so in a plug-in situation there's also huge amounts of the global community that don't have a plug-in situation and won't have so therefore a full hybrid vehicle is going to be perfect in the long run for getting efficiencies and gains. When we look at the 2035 target without having a strategy across Europe and the UK certainly and what you'd really want it wider globally that says we understand that hybrid really is a transition technology but I'd say a long-term
Inperson 1: charging so in a plug-in situation there's also huge amounts of the global community that don't have a plug-in situation and won't have so therefore a full hybrid vehicle is going to be perfect in the long run for getting efficiencies and gains. When we look at the 2035 target without having a strategy across Europe and the UK certainly and what you'd really want it wider globally that says we understand that hybrid really is a transition technology but I'd say a long-term
Fred & Drea Warner: actual application. I personally believe in hybrid as a long-term technology. You're right that somebody who's not had any experience in electric vehicle can get a hybrid, get a plug-in hybrid or a full hybrid and move on the journey and maybe their EV will be the next car after that. But the full jump for a lot of people with the range anxieties, with the infrastructure, shortfalls, just buying it for everybody just isn't suitable. I can't understand why policymakers that lean on this academic research, that lean on the studies don't see.
Inperson 1: actual application. I personally believe in hybrid as a long-term technology. You're right that somebody who's not had any experience in electric vehicle can get a hybrid, get a plug-in hybrid or a full hybrid and move on the journey and maybe their EV will be the next car after that. But the full jump for a lot of people with the range anxieties, with the infrastructure, shortfalls, just buying it for everybody just isn't suitable. I can't understand why policymakers that lean on this academic research, that lean on the studies don't see.
Fred & Drea Warner: what seems blatantly obvious to anyone that understands technology and engineering and automotive, that hybrid is the future with EV playing a part in that too. Yeah. And again, I think, you know, I won't paint policymakers all with the same brush because I think there are some that get it. And, you know, the number of MPs and MEPs I talk to go, I drive a hybrid. It's brilliant. It fits all my needs. Amazing. So they get it. But I think there are some who, again, they just want to pull that single lever and solve all the problems with
Inperson 1: what seems blatantly obvious to anyone that understands technology and engineering and automotive, that hybrid is the future with EV playing a part in that too. Yeah. And again, I think, you know, I won't paint policymakers all with the same brush because I think there are some that get it. And, you know, the number of MEPs and MEPs I talk to go, I drive a hybrid. It's brilliant. It fits all my needs. Amazing. So they get it. But I think there are some who, again, they just want to pull that single lever and solve all the problems with
Fred & Drea Warner: EVs are the silver bullet bosh done. I think we just need to continue to work to help those people understand that's not a realistic solution for everybody. I think there are some that go any emissions of any kind are unacceptable. in a previous life, I worked in the tobacco industry and I stretched the parallel somewhat, but there was a discussion, do we move people from cigarettes, which we all agree are terrible and bad for you.
Inperson 1: EVs or the silver bullet Bosch done. I think we just need to continue to work to help those people understand that's not a realistic solution for everybody. I think there are some that go any emissions of any kind are unacceptable. in a previous life, I worked in the tobacco industry and I stretched the parallel somewhat, but there was a discussion, do we move people from cigarettes, which we all agree are terrible in bad view.
Fred & Drea Warner: to vapes. And if you move people from cigarettes to vapes, which are 90 % safer, you save a lot of lives, you reduce the cost of treasury and healthcare system. But those people who still want to enjoy nicotine and still need it for some reason in their lives have an option that's safer. But you had a large community who said no, vapes are bad. Just stop entirely. It was almost called quit or die. And it's a little bit similar in this transition going from
Inperson 1: vapes. And if you move people from cigarettes to vapes, which are 90 % safer, you save a lot of lives, you reduce the cost of treasury and healthcare system. But those people who still want to enjoy nicotine and still need it for some reason in their lives have an option that's safer. But you had a large community who said no, vapes are bad. Just stop entirely. It was almost called quit or die. it's a little bit similar in this transition going from
Fred & Drea Warner: Well, here's a technology we all agree that conventional ice it has to transition and move and become more sustainable. Here's a midpoint, a compromise, a fuzzy grey area that works for a lot of people. But you still have some that say, no, no, need perfect, we need perfect. So I think it's about not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. Here's a technology that delivers a lot of benefit that works for everybody, avoids a lot of the challenges we see around EVs. Let's create an atmosphere where that can work.
Inperson 1: Well, here's a technology we all agree that conventional ice is, it has to transition and move and become more sustainable. Here's a midpoint, a compromise, a fuzzy gray area that works for a lot of people. But you still have some that say, no, no, we need perfect, we need perfect. So I think it's about, you not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. Here's a technology that delivers a lot of benefit that works for everybody, avoids a lot of the challenges we see around EVs. Let's, an atmosphere where that can work.
Fred & Drea Warner: thrive, not just rule it out because it happens to operate on a bit of petrol from time to time. I think to see progress in that space for me, in the hybrid space, because if something's not set in place for 2035 that's more pragmatic, it really restricts the OEMs in terms of how do we develop them? Because like you say, 10 years away is nothing in an OEM. So you need more support for the long-term hybrid technology.
Inperson 1: thrive, not just rule it out because it happens to operate on a bit of petrol from time to time. I think to see progress in that space for me, in the hybrid space, because if something's not set in place for 2035 that's more pragmatic, it really restricts the OEMs in terms of how do we develop them? Because like you say, 10 years away is nothing in an OEM. So you need more support for the long-term hybrid technology.
Fred & Drea Warner: Moving on to e-fuels, synthetic fuels and hydrogen fuel cells. We'll go through hydrogen fuel cells quite quickly because it's not going to be an active technology as we've discussed in automotive now. It's been tried many times, there's a lot of demonstrators. There's still a lot of options around motorbikes potentially, rail, HGVs, light commercial vehicles. What's the general thinking around?
Inperson 1: Moving on to e-fuels, synthetic fuels and hydrogen fuel cells. We'll go through hydrogen fuel cells quite quickly because it's not going to be an active technology as we've discussed in automotive now. It's been tried many times, there's a lot of demonstrators. There's still a lot of options around motorbikes potentially, rail, HGVs, light commercial vehicles. What's the general thinking around?
Fred & Drea Warner: hydrogen fuel cell for you? Yeah, so we've been looking at fuel cell for quite some time and hydrogen I think is an important part of the mix in Japan. we're seeing a lot of thinking around it. I agree that it's probably not the solution for passenger car. We piloted fuel cell passenger cars here in Europe for short while, in Japan, in California. The economics of it don't quite work out. What we see is more opportunities around
Inperson 1: hydrogen fuel cell for Yeah, so we've been looking at fuel cell for quite some time and hydrogen I think is an important part of the mix in Japan. we're seeing a lot of thinking around it. I agree that it's probably not the solution for passenger car. We piloted fuel cell passenger cars here in Europe for short while, in Japan, in California. The economics of it don't quite work out. What we see is more opportunities around
Fred & Drea Warner: heavy duty applications, as you said, so for trucks, potentially for heavy marine. Marine is one of the most polluting forms of transport. If you can move from burning bunker fuel to using hydrogen, I think there is a huge emissions savings and sustainability manoeuvre. But we're also looking at stationary applications. So for instance, when you're looking at data centres, which need to have a constant reliable source of energy,
Inperson 1: heavy duty applications, as you said, so for trucks, potentially for heavy marine. Marine is one of the most polluting forms of transport. If you can move from burning bunker fuel to using hydrogen, I think there is a huge emissions savings and sustainability maneuver. But we're also looking at stationary applications. So for instance, when you're looking at data centers, which need to have a constant reliable source of energy,
Fred & Drea Warner: often their backup will be diesel or petrol generators. If you can replace that with a fuel cell backup solution, a stationary solution, again, there's a massive amount of emissions that's reduced. So that's really where we're seeing potential opportunity from our point of view. I know across the industry, others are looking at, for instance, using hydrogen in
Inperson 1: often their backup will be diesel or petrol generators. If you can replace that with a fuel cell backup solution, a stationary solution, again, there's a massive amount of emissions that's reduced. So that's really where we're seeing potential opportunity from our point of view. I know across the industry, others are looking at, for instance, using hydrogen in
Fred & Drea Warner: IC engines for heavy duty applications or potentially non-road mobile machinery application. Dirty hydrogen. Dirty hydrogen, But it means you can be less pure with the hydrogen, which is far more usable and far cheaper than getting the very high pure grade, the very high grade purities that's required to run a fuel cell. Yeah. I think there'll be a range of applications where hydrogen plays a role.
Inperson 1: IC engines for heavy duty applications or potentially non-road mobile machinery application. Dirty hydrogen. Dirty hydrogen, But it means you can be less pure with the hydrogen, which is far more usable and far cheaper than getting the very high pure grade, the very high grade purities that's required to run a fuel cell. Yeah. I think there'll be a range of applications where hydrogen plays a role.
Fred & Drea Warner: I think the interesting question is around e-fuels or liquid fuels or carbon neutral fuels, whatever we're calling them today. They come from a variety of sources. To end on the e-fuels then, closed carbon, let's call it so, for the viewer if you don't understand, whereas an EV has no tailpipe emissions, an e-fuel would, but the idea is that it puts out no more than it took out of the climate and the environment to begin with. So it's closed loop.
Inperson 1: I think the interesting question is around e-fuels or liquid fuels or carbon neutral fuels, whatever we're calling them today. They come from a variety of sources. To end on the e-fuels then, closed carbon, let's call it so, for the viewer if you don't understand, whereas an EV has no tailpipe emissions, an e-fuel would, but the idea is that it puts out no more than it took out of the climate and the environment to begin with. So it's closed loop.
Fred & Drea Warner: carbon out of the environment and you put it back in through burning it again. So there's an argument to say, it's making no difference doing it. And there's 1.4 billion cars estimated on the roads globally, 300 million in Europe that are going to be around for a long time. Future cars being able to move on e-fuels and sustainable fuels, motorsports, very keen on it and pursuing it. Any thoughts?
Inperson 1: carbon out of the environment and you put it back in through burning it again. So there's an argument to say, it's making no difference doing it. And there's 1.4 billion cars estimated on the roads globally, 300 million in Europe that are going to be around for a long time. Future cars being able to move on e-fuels and sustainable fuels, motorsports, very keen on it and pursuing it. Any thoughts?
Fred & Drea Warner: Yeah, so it's definitely an area we're looking at. there's quite a lot of conversation going on with the colleagues in R &D. And in fact, last year, our R &D colleagues worked with counterparts at BMW, Toyota, and Bosch, think, to do what they called the Tour of Europe. So using a vehicle that ran on carbon neutral fuels to drive around Europe and demonstrated the sort of...
Inperson 1: Yeah, so it's definitely an area we're looking at. there's quite a lot of conversation going on with the colleagues in R &D. And in fact, last year, our R &D colleagues worked with counterparts at BMW, Toyota, and Bosch, think, to do what they called the Tour of Europe. So using a vehicle that ran on neutral fuels to drive around Europe and demonstrated the sort of...
Fred & Drea Warner: carbon neutral mileage it could get, which was showcasing that you can use these in existing vehicles. So there's definitely an opportunity around that legacy fleet that you mentioned. And I think people are holding onto their cars for longer and longer. We'll have those people that go, I don't want to buy an EV or a hybrid. So what do we do to help them reduce their emissions? So that's probably where there's a role for those fuels. I think also for applications that are hard to electrify, motorcycles are a good example, potentially some...
Inperson 1: carbon neutral mileage it could get, which was showcasing that you can use these in existing vehicles. So there's definitely an opportunity around that legacy fleet that you mentioned. And I think people are holding onto their cars for longer and longer. We'll have those people that go, I don't want to buy an EV or a hybrid. So what do we do to help them reduce their emissions? So that's probably where there's a role for those fuels. I think also for applications that are hard to electrify, motorcycles are good example, potentially some...
Fred & Drea Warner: construction equipment and so on will be hard to electrify. Definitely a role for low carbon fuels there. But I think there's a role for governments to be supporting R &D into developing those fuels and making sure the rules and regulations around them are correct. So we know in Europe, in the discussion around the European CO2 regulation, there's discussion around how do we define a car that runs only on sustainable fuels.
Inperson 1: construction equipment and so on will be hard to electrify. Definitely a role for low carbon fuels there. But I think there's a role for governments to be supporting R &D into developing those fuels and making sure the rules and regulations around them are correct. So we know in Europe, in the discussion around the European CO2 regulation, there's discussion around how do we define a car that runs only on sustainable fuels.
Fred & Drea Warner: And what's the technology and the systems that we have to put into place into that vehicle to make sure that's what's happening and people aren't just shoving petrol in it. So I think it's a fascinating area, but still in its early days. And I think a lot of work to be done to make sure it works right, that it's economical, that the scales there of those fuels. So there's a risk a little bit sometimes, I think, that these carbon neutral fuels, if they're not developed at scale and at mass and an affordable price point, maybe they become,
Inperson 1: And what's the technology and the systems that we have to put into place into that vehicle to make sure that's what's happening and people aren't just shoving petrol in it. So I think it's a fascinating area, but still in its early days. And I think a lot of work to be done to make sure it works right, that it's economical, that the scales there of those fuels. So there's a risk a little bit sometimes, I think, that these carbon neutral fuels, if they're not developed at scale and at mass and an affordable price point, maybe they become,
Fred & Drea Warner: for some rich guy's Porsche on a Sunday, he can continue to do that, but is it available to the little guys, you were saying? So I think that's an interesting question we need to flesh out. Yeah, and certainly from in terms of the infrastructure, it's already there, you just need to fill it with the e-fuel and you can carry on. Well, I mean, thank you so much for joining me today, Patrick. It's been wonderful to have you on. Is there anything you want to say about Honda in Europe and what you're hoping for in the next?
Inperson 1: for some rich guy's Porsche on a Sunday, he can continue to do that, but is it available to the little guys, you were saying? So I think that's an interesting question we need to flesh out. Yeah, and certainly from in terms of the infrastructure, it's already there, you just need to fill it with the E-field and you can carry on. Well, I mean, thank you so much for joining me today, Patrick. It's been wonderful to have you on. Is there anything you want to say about Honda in Europe and what you're hoping for in the next?
Fred & Drea Warner: Six to twelve months. Yes, I think, as we said, there's a lot going on. But I think my message that I continue to push the regulators in London or Brussels is, as you're setting policy, always put the customer first. At Honda, we're a customer-focused company. Let's think about what people need to help them move into sustainable mobility and not just be focused purely on sustainability being around electric cars. What are the role of hybrids? What are the role of motorcycles? What are the role of e-bikes? Let's look at it holistically and not just pull one lever. Let's pull as many levers as we can.
Inperson 1: Six to 12 months. Yes, I think, as we said, there's a lot going on. But I think my message that I continue to push the regulators in London or Brussels is, as you setting policy, always put the customer first. At Honda, we're a customer-focused company. Let's think about what people need to help them move into sustainable mobility and not just be focused purely on sustainability being around electric cars. What are the role of hybrids? What are the role of motorcycles? What are the role of e-bikes? Let's look at it holistically and not just pull one lever. Let's pull as many levers as we can.
Fred & Drea Warner: Well thank you so much for joining me. you've been watching and listening to Future Engineering Bets. Please do share this episode with other people that are going to find it interesting. Do like and follow. Have a look at what Honda Europe are doing and look at Patrick online. And I'll see you on the next episode.
Inperson 1: Well thank you so much for joining me. you've been watching and listening to Future Engineering Bets. Please do share this episode with other people that are going to find it interesting. Do like and follow. Have a look at what Honda Europe are doing and look at Patrick online. And I'll see you on the next episode.
