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He was thriving in the N.F.L., but then he decided to focus on mathematics — a subject he now teaches at M.I.T. John walks Stephen Dubner through the whole story, teaches him some blocking techniques, and explains why some infinities are bigger than others. If you'd like to see the video version of…
For decades, teams have tried (and mostly failed) to predict which college quarterbacks will thrive in the pros. Is the science finally catching up? Stephen Dubner speaks with a scout, a psychologist, a data warrior, and a Hall of Fame quarterback who nobody wanted.    SOURCES: Scott Goldman, spo…
The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a two-part series.)  SOUR…
An economist calls America’s beef industry a “miracle.” An antitrust scholar calls it “broken.” Maybe they’re both right?  SOURCES: Austin Frerick, agriculture antitrust expert, fellow at Yale University, author of Barons: Money, Power, and the Corruption of America's Food Industry. Robert Hodgen,…

688. When Is a Bet Not a Bet?

That’s the question at the heart of a battle between Kalshi and state gambling regulators. As prediction markets boom, there are other questions, too — about insider trading, market manipulation, and whether the public has turned against them. (Part two of a two-part series.)   SOURCES: Gary Gens…
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