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It's not just Putin.
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When Putin goes, Putinism is going to continue.
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It's not just Trump, because it's not a single individual that's directing the whole of US state policy.
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Instead, there are people around him who think like him and are implementing the same directions.
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And some of the damage that has already been done and some of the changes that have been brought about both domestically within the United States and internationally are either irreversible or would take a very long time to put right.
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America has always been Britain's closest ally, and for many of us, the anchor of the democratic West.
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Yet over a remarkably short period, we've watched events there with growing disbelief.
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Institutions challenged, alliances questioned, political norms discarded, and society becoming ever more polarized.
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Well, my guest today believes these aren't isolated events, but part of a much bigger picture.
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Keir Giles is one of Britain's leading experts on Russia.
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His latest book, American Overthrow, is a forensic evidence-based examination of the extraordinary transformation taking place inside the United States.
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But today's conversation isn't really just about America, it's about what the uh Americans experience means for Britain, Europe, and the future of Western democracy.
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Thanks very much.
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Thank you for having me.
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I think your central thesis, if I've understood it correctly, is that America is is beginning to resemble Russia in in some striking ways.
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And that's for perhaps people who don't follow geopotic geopolitics closely, that's a bold claim.
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What do you mean by that?
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Well, there are two aspects to this.
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One, people will probably already have noticed.
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Uh the second may be far harder to discern.
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The first aspect is the way I started writing the book, which was looking at all of the ways in which the United States was now falling in line with what Russia wanted it to do under the second Trump presidency.
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That was the most obvious external manifestation of how the United States now saw Russia as a partner, and in fact somebody to emulate rather than an adversary.
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And there are some high profile things that most people will be aware of.
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The changing sides on Ukraine, for example, the way in which the United States is no longer so committed to the support of its allies and friends around the world, but instead intends to allow a free hand for the people it previously opposed.
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All of that is fairly clear.
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But what I discovered while writing the book was that there was actually something deeper and less obvious going on within the United States itself.
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And those are those isolated elements, so it appears that you mentioned.
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But looking at them overall, there's a pattern, and the pattern is very disturbing for people who are professional watchers of Russia, whether they're journalists, whether they're academics, whether they are analysts, all the people that have closely observed the processes that have happened in Russia over the last twenty five years, are now saying we see the same thing happening in the United States as well.
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It is as though the new administration had taken the manual from Vladimir Putin about how to consolidate power once you arrive in the presidency twenty-five years ago, and are now applying it step by step within the United States itself.
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Now there's a problem with that, apart obviously from what it means for people who are in the United States and are affected by it around the world.
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The problem is it sounds mad.
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It sounds insane, it's so far-fetched, and as one reviewer put it, it sounds preposterous unless and until you actually start peeling away the layers of evidence and examining it in detail, and then the evidence starts to stack up until it's very hard to look away and very hard to argue against.
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That same uh that same reviewer that said it was preposterous eventually concluded it's not preposterous because there's no chink in the armor of evidence, he said.
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And that's the most disturbing element of it.
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It's so consistent across the board, across all of these manifestations of what looks like Russia being mimicked by the new US administration in domestic affairs as well as internationally.
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Well, look, I mean you go into great detail as to how this may have come about.
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I mean, and speaking as a Cold War veteran, I recognize the Russian playbook and we'll go into more detail about how that works, the subversion, come to that later.
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Um But some might say that Well, look, this simply sounds like an anti-Trump book.
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What do you say to the to those critics?
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Well, I've been extremely careful not to make it an anti-Trump book as far as is possible, because whenever you describe what Trump says and does, it's pretty much inevitably going to be making him look like a figure that is harmful to the interests not just of the United States, but also to much of the rest of the world as well.
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You can't quote Trump without making him look uh both deranged and, of course, malevolent.
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So in that respect, um making not an anti-Trump book, the closest I could get was quoting also those people who are explaining Trump's behavior by other means, saying, for instance, that uh no, he is in fact not uh the person you see on television.
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Behind the scenes, he's a very sharp operator.
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He has a strategic plan, he knows what he's doing, and everything that we see is just a charade for the cameras.
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So I do talk, I did talk to those people and get their views while researching for the book.
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The problem is it's very hard to sustain that idea of who Trump is and what he is doing, if you then try to compare it with what's actually happening in real life.
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And of course that's a tension within the book.
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Why exactly is Trump behaving in the way that he is?
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It's been pointed out that if there were an effort to use Trump as a conscious agent of a foreign power, he would be an appalling person to choose to do it.
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Because if you want somebody to do something confidential, you don't want a garrulous individual who can't control his own mouth and is irrational and impulsive.
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But, of course, there are two elements to that that uh that call into question what is going on in the United States.
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First of all, if it is not Trump acting consciously, that doesn't rule out the fact that he's being exploited and manipulated in some manner to bring about the outcomes that foreign powers want.
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Second, of course, just as we always had to say that in Russia, it's not just Putin that is making Russia do what it does, it's the group around him, of course, supported by a large section of the population.
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Exactly the same in the United States.
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It's not just Trump.
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We can see that Trump is he has his foot on the throttle and the accelerators there barreling down the road towards what closely resembles authoritarianism in the United States, but what we can't see is whose hand is on the steering wheel, who's read the manual, who is actually implementing all of the long-term strategic planning that is taking them to that point.
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So I stress in the book over and over again Trump is just the figurehead, but instead it is a group of individuals that have chosen this path for the United States.
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Well, I mean, let's briefly mention a couple of those.
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For people who are interested in American politics, um a couple of names immediately come to mind.
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Elbridge Colby and Stephen Miller uh are two that come to mind, and you specifically mentioned those in your book.
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I mentioned them.
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I do not ascribe any motivations to them.
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I describe what they have said and what they have done, and if the reader concludes from that that they are working against the interests of not just the the Western world but the United States, unfortunately there's not a great deal I can do about that.
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But in each of these cases, when describing the actions, I have tried to be as objective and as neutral as possible.
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And of course, in all cases, making sure that if readers want to dig deeper into the subject, they can head back to the extremely copious footnotes at the back of the book to see where all of this is coming from.
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What I haven't done is try to step beyond the evidence to speculate about why people are doing what they're doing and what hand Russia has done in it.
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Now, some people might find that a little unsatisfactory, but there are plenty of other books that are ascribing motivations to Trump and the people around him saying that they are agents of the Russian state, for example, doing that, stepping beyond what is actually provable in the open sources that we have access to.
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I've tried to avoid doing that and let the reader reach their own conclusions by seeing these patterns that are repeated so often and so precisely across so many areas of the behavior of the Trump administration.
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And one wonders how much of what is going on is is more a result of cock-up than conspiracy.
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Yes, it's always it's always a question, particularly when you you see some of the counterproductive things that the United States administration has has tried to do, achieving exactly the opposite result to what they actually set out and stated was the intent.
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But again, looking at the pattern overall, sometimes it looks like ust uh chaos as uh completely random, unpredictable actions, especially in the first few months of the new Trump administration, when the Doge group was brought in to take a fire axe to so many American institutions.
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It looked like there was no plan.
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It was completely wild, unscripted.
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But then you look again at the patterns that are that emerge and the things that are common to all of the actions that were being undertaken at that time.
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And that's when you see that there are consistent themes to a lot of what is being done.
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And the most disturbing aspect of that is that the single most powerful consistent theme is destruction of U.S.
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power and agency.
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Destruction of the ability of the United States to protect itself against foreign powers and to protect Americans at home.
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Let's not forget this is not all just about foreign policy, but there are direct impacts on how people live in the United States as well.
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Taking the administrations that had previously kept Americans healthy and safe and dismantling them has led directly to surges in communicable diseases in the United States, in food-based illnesses, no vaccination, no food checks, and you're in an unhealthy place already.
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And that's even before you start on the economic damage and the changes to the well-being of the the least well the lowest income sectors of the American population, which have been absolutely devastating.
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So all of these different aspects have just this one theme in common, which it is doing damage to the United States and to its people under the guise of an America first agenda.
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Most of my audience lives in Britain.
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Um why should events in America matter to them personally?
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Well, there are the direct consequences and there are the long-term implications, and they're slightly different.
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First of all, if you live in the UK, then you're probably aware that the defense and security policy of your country has been predicated for as long as anyone can remember on the United States always being there as an ally.
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In fact, the whole force design of the British Armed Forces is uh it was explicitly we're not going to go to war unless it's part of a coalition and the United States is going to be the biggest member.
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So in some respects, the British Armed Forces are designed as a bolt-on accessory to the United States.
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Now, if those assumptions are no longer valid, that upends not only the whole of the defense and security planning of the country and its reliance on alliances of which the United States is the leading member, but even the force design of how we actually protect and defend ourselves against adversaries.
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That comes through most clearly, of course, in the new US policy about the relationship with European defense and with NATO and trying to make sure that the conflict with Russia is held at the front line in Ukraine where it is at the moment, as opposed to coming home to us.
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But there are also all kinds of other relationships with the United States that are in a state of flux and potentially in a state of upheaval.
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And to the extent that that forms the basis of the rules-based international order and the global economy that has kept us relatively prosperous and secure for as long as people can remember, it demands a whole set of reevaluation of basic assumptions about the nature of the United Kingdom's place in the world and how it organizes its foreign affairs.
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And then there are the long-term implications.
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Back in twenty sixteen, almost exactly a decade ago now, I wrote a manual.
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It's called The Handbook of Russian Information Warfare.
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It came out through NATO Defense College in Rome.
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And it was about how Russia uses information to get its way, without necessarily having to roll tanks across a border, but still at its most ambitious, looking at regime change in the target country so that Russia could take control of the foreign policy and security policy of the victim state without necessarily having to actually invade it.
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Now what we see now appears very much like a live action case study of that succeeding in the United States.
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But the United States is not the only target.
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There are countries around the world where Russia might have a similar level of ambition, and not just small countries.
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We see the interference in democratic processes, we see the subversion, the malign influence that is never tied to a specific, sorry, is not always tied to a specific electoral event, like for example the Brexit referendum.
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Instead, it's a constant process.
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If it succeeds, that put us puts us all in danger.
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Let's talk about that...
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how that playbook works, um, because uh I think a lot of people they associate it with russophobia.
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They they don't believe that um that that Russia has such a malign influence on our day-to-day lives.
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So just lay out for us the sort of things that that are happening right now.
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The people who associate it with Russophobia tend to be the people who haven't actually listened to what Russia itself says about this.
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The the handbook of Russian information warfare was all drawn from Russian sources, laying out Moscow's ambition to do this to people like us.
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And what does the overall long-term process look like?
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And I stress this is a long-term thing.
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It's not just something that is switched on and off uh at a random basis or in response to specific events like the referendum on independence for Scotland, for example.
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Let's take a uh a 30-year time span and look at Russia's ambition and then the practical result, again, coming back to the United States.
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You might have heard of um Alexander Dugin.
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He's uh a pseudophilosopher and uh and political historian within Russia, one of the immensely um Hirsuit philosopher figures that uh that has written vast books, one back in 1997 called The The Foundations of Geopolitics, 997 pages, and don't I know it?
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One of the things that he laid out there was a plan for how Russia could restore its power in the world and its control over a part of Europe by neutralizing the obstacle that was presented by the United States.
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He said we need to activate using our methods of information warfare and encourage the right wing of the Republican Party in the United States to come to power and to push for isolationism, for withdrawing US power globally, for retreating to the Western Hemisphere and leaving Europe as Russia's sphere of influence.
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Now, twenty-nine years later, you have a US national security strategy which says exactly that, and not only that, but also Dorgand explained this in terms of a new Monroe doctrine.
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That's precisely the language which the new Trump administration has adopted as well.
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So you look at instances like that where Russia is saying very clearly what it wants to achieve, and then precisely that happens, and it makes it quite hard to not look for a connection between the two and to pretend that this is all happening spontaneously rather than with Moscow's assistance.
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And they don't need to necessarily uh directly try and influence something, do they?
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Well one of their greatest uh I wouldn't say I don't want to use the word skills, uh but modus operanda is probably a better term, uh is to just create um uh chaos by having uh if you've got a particular situation uh going on in a in a community to have people in favor, have people against, and have their bots actually have that conversation to rile up each um particular side of the so polarizing effectively.
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Absolutely right.
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And setting both sides against the middle, and that's not just online.
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We see multiple instances where Russia-backed or Russia-influenced groups at both sides of the political spectrum have actually been brought out onto the streets in physical space to confront each other.
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There have been multiple s instances like that in the United States.
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So Russia doesn't necessarily invent the social problems that it exploits and rides to target its victims, but it is adept at finding them and then needling them to make things worse, to break down societal cohesion, to reduce trust in government institutions.
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So you have now a situation in the UK where there's the the start of organized civil disobedience and potentially even organized resistance against the government's policy on migrants.
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That's exactly the kind of thing that the issues that Russia has sought to exploit in the past.
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They don't need to actually get people incensed about the issue and bring them out onto the streets because the British government has done a good enough job at that already.
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But what they can do is ride that and make sure that the dissent and the the conflict and the discord between all of the different elements of society that have wildly different views on this are exacerbated to the point where it makes conflict within society more likely not less.
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It's fascinating.
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And what role I looked at countries like Finland.
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Uh Finland's probably the best example actually of of getting their act together when it comes to resilience.
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And and the the resilience is goes to their very core, and particularly in terms of their their mainstream media and and how they have a a built-in defense to this kind of uh disinformation, misinformation, mischief, if you like, that's that's that's constantly being exploited by uh hostile actors like Russia.
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Russia's not alone.
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Um so what should we learn, what should our mainstream media learn in terms of how they uh should adapt to this environment?
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Well, yes, it's true.
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Finland is always the poster charge for this, not just societal resilience and information resilience, but even the broad concept of we have a neighbor that is likely to try to interfere, we need to make sure that our economy can keep going, um, society continues to function, people are kept alive while Russia is doing its best to make sure that they don't.
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And that's the the underlying principle between behind comprehensive defense, making sure that the opportunities for Russia to reach in and cause disruption are minimized to the greatest extent possible.
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And within that, there is the understanding that Russia uses information as a tool, and that needs to be defended against.
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And this is uh firmly established within the Finnish, and not just the Finnish, but the other frontline states, understanding of their vulnerabilities.
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But the further west you go, as with so many other uh security problems, the less the recognition is that this is a means by which our adversaries can hurt us.
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Now you don't have a universal pattern for what can be done across Europe or indeed across the world, because there are so many different, not just legal environments, not just regulatory frameworks for how you work with the media, but even societal assumptions.
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If it is not acceptable in your society for the government to tell people what is right and what is wrong, that's a huge handicap when you're dealing with foreign malign influence or disinformation.
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By contrast, uh societies where that is an expected part of the duties of government find it much easier.
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And that's why the the often the the case study for what's possible with that kind of um permissive constitutional environment is Singapore and its Prevention of Online Falsehoods Act, which would be inconceivable in some way with a far more liberal information environment where the government can't do that kind of thing, like for example, Canada.
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So there's no one size fits all solution, but what is generally true about the countries west of Warfarsa, with the honorable exception of France for a change, is that they haven't taken this the challenge sufficiently seriously and have not invested enough time, resources, and political capital in actually addressing it.
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Well, um, which brings me to social media.
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I mean, we we all, I think, and the message I try to get across is that we all have uh a responsibility when using social media to to look for this to actually exercise some critical thinking rather than simply scrolling aimlessly through.
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If you come across something that triggers you, look for the source.
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Where who is saying this and why?
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And and if more of us looked at the post critically and s and and ask that ather than r rising to the bait and and getting into those comments and laying into whoever's post it was.
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That is where a lot of the damage is being done, isn't it, in social media.
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That's exactly right.
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And uh that comes back to some of the programs that have been undertaken to make Countries more resilient in information in psychological terms.
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Basic education from a very early age in being informed information consumers and not taking things at first value, but instead verifying, looking at the source, evaluating what the intent is behind this information and how trustworthy it is.
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Now, back in the early stages of the renewed recognition of how Russia exploits information, particularly in the new Internet age, uh, 10, 12 years ago, uh Finland, again, was uh was one of the first to undertake these comprehensive education programs for very young children.
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At the time, this was in some quarters dismissed as something which wouldn't have an effect because of the immensely long time that it takes for these kids to grow up and become information consumers.
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But those children are now sixteen and eighteen and a primary target for these campaigns.
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So it demonstrates again the long-term investment that's actually needed, and there's no time like the present to get started.
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Wow.
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There there was one killer line I found in your book which uh did strike me, which was Trump may go, but Trumpism probably won't, uh or - I can't remember the exact phrase you used, but uh uh basically a warning w tio say don't hink that America is simply going to revert back to good old Uncle Sam the moment Trump leaves the room.
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Exactly right.
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Uh and this comes back to one of the parallels at when we've had to explain, first of all, Russia and now the United States.
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It's not just Putin.
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When Putin goes, Putinism is going to continue.
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It's not just Trump, because it's not a single individual that's directing the whole of US state policy.
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Instead, there are people around him who think like him and are implementing the same directions.
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And some of the damage that has already been done and some of the changes that have been brought about both domestically within the United States and internationally are either irreversible or would take a very long time to put right.
00:23:58.960 --> 00:24:26.799
Removing the United States as the central pillar of global economic relationships, for example, through through tariff policy, the way in which the environmental protections for parts of the United States' countryside and for the keeping people safe from hazards in their food and their drinking water that have been abolished for the benefit of Trump's oligarch friends, will be difficult or impossible to restore.
00:24:26.799 --> 00:24:43.519
So all of these things have brought about permanent changes within the United States and in its relationship with its allies, even before you consider the possibility that the Trump group appears intent to cling to power after notional end of his second term in 2028.
00:24:44.799 --> 00:24:54.960
And when it comes to that, there's an awful lot of work that um Trump and his uh his cabinet um uh and advisers are doing to interfere with that election process.
00:24:54.960 --> 00:25:00.160
I mean, it's quite it's seriously frightening actually to see the measures that are being taken.
00:25:00.880 --> 00:25:09.839
Again, uh people might be aware of isolated things that have been done, small changes here and there, especially if they're in the United States and they're impacted directly by it.
00:25:09.839 --> 00:25:20.880
But it's when you bring all of that together into one place, into one coherent whole, that it becomes far more alarming because it's much clearer exactly what is going on.
00:25:20.880 --> 00:25:26.559
And uh the principle that's being applied is it it's not who votes that counts, it's who counts the votes.
00:25:26.559 --> 00:25:34.160
So the main effort, the intensest effort of the Trump administration is to get control of the counting of the votes.
00:25:34.160 --> 00:25:48.000
But there are also all kinds of measures going on around that, for dealing with uh an election and the aftermath of an election if it does not go the administration's way, and that is where some of the most alarming developments are taking place.
00:25:48.000 --> 00:26:04.960
Something that I I devote an entire chapter to in the the book, but also hoping very much that I'm wrong, that the midterms in November of this year, the presidential elections in 2028, go off smoothly, uh without dispute, and bring about a genuine electoral result.
00:26:04.960 --> 00:26:07.440
You do say you very much doubt that they will.
00:26:07.440 --> 00:26:08.960
I think we'll worse to that effect.
00:26:08.960 --> 00:26:11.119
I doubt that they will, as ever.
00:26:11.119 --> 00:26:16.480
I hope that uh one day one of these very depressing books that I write is actually going to turn out to be wrong.
00:26:18.400 --> 00:26:27.599
Well, okay, let's uh look, I the thing that strikes me is is if you're an American citizen, um the the hazards are many.
00:26:27.599 --> 00:26:33.359
Uh that there's a very good chance you'll have lost your job because of your political leaning.
00:26:33.359 --> 00:26:54.000
Um there's a very good chance you've you've lost a relationship because of your political leaning, because of the amount of control um that is being exerted uh by uh by the d b by the Trump regime and the way that uh legislation is changing and being changed d deliberately to favor the administration.
00:26:54.000 --> 00:27:00.720
Looking across the Atlantlantic, what warning signs are there for us in Britain and indeed Europe?
00:27:00.720 --> 00:27:03.519
What should we be paying attention to most of all?
00:27:04.240 --> 00:27:12.000
Well, first let's let's dwell on that point about the consequences for people who speak up in the United States who oppose what the administration is doing.
00:27:12.000 --> 00:27:13.759
Uh you mentioned losing their jobs.
00:27:13.759 --> 00:27:16.640
It's actually more profound than that for some people.
00:27:16.640 --> 00:27:34.400
The the legislative hounding, weaponizing the Department of Justice against them, uh making their life deliberately making their life miserable, even if it's not actually possible to bring charges against them because no crime has been committed, you can still impoverish and immiserate people by using the justice system.
00:27:34.400 --> 00:27:58.079
And that's part of the reason, I think, why we have not seen uh much in the way of organized, mass opposition to the ways in which the Trump administration is obviously damaging the interests of the country, because people are quite justifiably concerned about the personal consequences for them, which is a decision that Americans have not had to face in living memory.
00:27:58.079 --> 00:28:06.559
It's something which uh is far more understandable for people who live in Russia or in the frontline states that have previously been under totalitarian domination.
00:28:06.559 --> 00:28:15.519
Do you speak up and risk the consequences, or do you knuckle under and just go with it and uh you and therefore accept what is going to happen to your country?
00:28:15.519 --> 00:28:24.079
People are making that choice in the United States and they are suffering the consequences, but we shouldn't underestimate just how severe those consequences can be.
00:28:24.079 --> 00:28:31.119
And I go into a number of of case studies of that in the uh in the book, some of which are are really quite disturbing.
00:28:31.119 --> 00:28:38.559
But coming to the second part of your question, what about the the way it looks over here, and what exactly should we be concerned about?
00:28:38.559 --> 00:28:58.000
There's an element to the the way in which the Trump administration has been engaging with its international partners, which seems to be misunderstood and underestimated, particularly in Europe, including in the UK, which is that not everything they're saying about what is wrong with the relationship is actually wrong.
00:28:58.000 --> 00:29:00.160
It's not necessarily incorrect.
00:29:00.160 --> 00:29:09.599
It tends to get lost in the hype and the hyperbole, and of course the hypocrisy when the United States is accusing other countries of doing precisely what it has started doing itself.
00:29:09.599 --> 00:29:25.599
But that doesn't mean that there aren't underlying things which are entirely correct, like, for example, the central criticism of Europe during the first Trump administration, that it had completely abdicated the responsibility for its own defense and was relying on the United States.
00:29:25.599 --> 00:29:40.640
Now, countries across NATO have been remarkably slow to wake up to this and to recognize that it is in fact an issue, and it takes the pulling back of the American security blanket to realize, to make them realize they're suddenly going to be left out in the cold.
00:29:40.640 --> 00:29:55.440
Some are scrambling to catch up, others like the United Kingdom, as we heard from Andy Burnham this week, saying you can't uh you can't prioritize national security over social security, which is precisely the opposite of the problem that we're facing.
00:29:55.440 --> 00:30:01.599
So we shouldn't dismiss everything that the United States says just because of who is saying it.
00:30:01.599 --> 00:30:10.160
There are some very real problems in how they have interacted with their European partners and of course partners in East Asia over decades.
00:30:11.440 --> 00:30:12.640
Really interesting.
00:30:12.640 --> 00:30:17.119
Um we're nearing the end of the interview.
00:30:17.119 --> 00:30:18.799
I just want to bring in a couple more points.
00:30:18.799 --> 00:30:30.640
Um when um you'll obviously y'll you'll kTnow of uh Velina Tchakarova, when she was on fault lines, she argued that resilience isn't just about military capability.
00:30:30.640 --> 00:30:41.200
I mean I don't want to go too much into defense capability, because I think finally that is now being debated openly and uh about time too.
00:30:41.200 --> 00:30:44.720
Um but we've still clearly we've still got a a lot of work to do.
00:30:44.720 --> 00:30:54.240
But she made the point it's not just about military capability, it's also about energy, uh about food, supply chains, industry, technology, social cohesion.
00:30:54.240 --> 00:31:05.839
These are all um part of the collective that that we're going to be feeling uh the effects of um uh as as the the world changes.
00:31:05.839 --> 00:31:12.160
Does America's experience reinforce that much broader definition of national resilience?
00:31:12.880 --> 00:31:23.359
Well, America, surprisingly, has not yet suffered the consequences of dismantling its defenses domestically against hostile actors that might want to reach in and do it harm.
00:31:23.359 --> 00:31:40.559
I was um startled, particularly given what's happened to the cyber and information secur uh infrastructure security agency in the United States, that there have not been more reports of Iran taking advantage of that situation to strike back against the continental United States, for instance.
00:31:40.559 --> 00:31:53.359
But the lessons that we we have to learn here in the UK actually come from a different source altogether because all of those different aspects of resilience that Velina listed are all potential targets.
00:31:53.359 --> 00:32:01.759
And the more you neglect them, the more you invite people to lean in and to disrupt your society by exploiting those vulnerabilities.
00:32:01.759 --> 00:32:08.960
This isn't necessarily just a case of Russia launching missiles from up in the Norwegian Sea to hammer Western Europe.
00:32:08.960 --> 00:32:14.640
It's all of the other things that could cause disruption within society, not even necessarily human things.
00:32:14.640 --> 00:32:20.880
The response to floods, to wildfires, to all of the things that are going to come away from climate change.
00:32:20.880 --> 00:32:33.440
The response if, for example, organized resistance in the UK actually gets more widespread and causes more disruption, all of these are things which can disrupt that fragile balance of everyday life that effectively keeps people alive.
00:32:33.440 --> 00:32:43.920
So preparation for that and preparation for making sure that the effects are mitigated and minimized is absolutely vital just as much in the UK as it is in one of the frontline states.
00:32:43.920 --> 00:32:50.559
But it's another of the duties of government which governments appears at the moment absolutely unwilling to undertake.
00:32:51.440 --> 00:33:11.200
I mean, I'll touch briefly on Iran and and Ukraine, because the reason why that we're going to fe start feeling the impact of of uh of those two wars and and particularly in the areas we've discussed is because of these conflicts and which uh Velina again is is very keen to point out are connected.
00:33:11.200 --> 00:33:18.160
And I know an awful lot's been said about uh about Ukraine.
00:33:18.160 --> 00:33:21.599
Uh uh we pretty much know what's going on there.
00:33:21.599 --> 00:33:33.839
Um I I worry for Ukraine because I feel that um that people have discounted the the threat that Putin continues uh to to wield.
00:33:33.839 --> 00:33:38.480
And uh I think I think Ukraine's in for a very, very tough winter.
00:33:38.480 --> 00:33:48.480
And and people perhaps in this country don't appreciate, a lot of people don't appreciate how important Ukraine is to our future well-being.
00:33:49.359 --> 00:33:50.799
All of those things are true.
00:33:50.799 --> 00:34:01.839
Those people that pay attention uh to what's happening in Ukraine on a regular basis will have noticed that there's there's a bit of a lag in how descriptions of the conflict feed through into mainstream media.
00:34:01.839 --> 00:34:08.320
There tends to be a few months between some new phase of the war or some development and that actually reaching general consciousness.
00:34:08.320 --> 00:34:15.760
So we're still at the moment in a phase of optimism based on Ukrainian successes in carrying the war to Russia.
00:34:15.760 --> 00:34:35.519
But as you say, they are also all of the all of the conditions being set for the next winter in Ukraine being absolutely brutal, and Russia coming closer to its objective of making life in Ukraine effectively unlivable over the winter, at which point, of course, they may well have achieved their their objective of terrorizing Ukraine into surrender.
00:34:35.519 --> 00:34:50.159
So that is a real and active and immediate problem, and that is why you have some European countries scrambling to pour more air defenses into Ukraine to prevent that collapse that could potentially happen if Ukraine is not supported.
00:34:50.159 --> 00:35:05.920
But then there's the the second order implications of that, because as soon as, paradoxically, either Ukraine surrenders or there's a ceasefire freezing the conflict, that frees up Russia to do a great deal more against European countries in the next phases of its plan.
00:35:05.920 --> 00:35:17.519
And that includes, for instance, flowing all of those forces that are currently tied up in Ukraine into the infrastructure, the military infrastructure that Russia's been building along its eastern periphery and confronting NATO.
00:35:17.519 --> 00:35:34.559
It also means that it can push further in terms of coercing or intimidating or causing disruption in those European countries that it's targeting because it sees them as soft targets which will erode that general European cohesion and solidarity standing together to try to resist Russia.
00:35:34.559 --> 00:35:44.639
All of these things are become more dangerous after a ceasefire, not less, partly of course, because so many people across Europe will think the fighting's ended, the problem's gone away.
00:35:44.639 --> 00:35:49.599
And that is going to be the invitation that Russia needs to prove them wrong.
00:35:51.199 --> 00:35:57.840
Well, I as they say we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, although of course we can't really afford to relax at all.
00:35:57.840 --> 00:36:12.719
Um and we see the AFD with their six their uh election success uh in uh in Germany, and uh Merz has been a strong ally in the sense of re-arming Germany, of recognizing the threat.
00:36:12.719 --> 00:36:20.000
Uh that could all shift if uh if the AFD gains traction and ends up in a position of of power in Germany.
00:36:20.000 --> 00:36:25.840
Um that would be uh a very significant shift in in European politics.
00:36:25.840 --> 00:36:27.599
But let's not dwell on it now.
00:36:27.599 --> 00:36:38.800
Um I I just want to finish off really by looking at this from um a UK perspective, and it and it's relevant to Western Europeans as well.
00:36:38.800 --> 00:36:45.760
But if someone listening to this is thinking, well, this all feels rather overwhelming and rather gloomy.
00:36:45.760 --> 00:36:55.599
Um and there is a tendency, I think, and I notice it on social media for when you talk about this stuff, for people to go, oh no, no, I don't want to hear it.
00:36:55.599 --> 00:36:57.039
Don't want to listen.
00:36:57.039 --> 00:36:59.599
It's too gloomy, you know, too depressing.
00:36:59.599 --> 00:37:01.280
Got enough of our own problems.
00:37:01.280 --> 00:37:03.119
And I understand that completely.
00:37:03.119 --> 00:37:11.199
But action defeats despair, as is sort of something my old my old uh granddad used to say.
00:37:11.199 --> 00:37:12.880
And he's absolutely right.
00:37:12.880 --> 00:37:22.719
If if the if you to empower people and say, look, there are things you can do that will help, and that is building a sense of community, it's strengthening the community.
00:37:22.719 --> 00:37:26.559
Um what would be your your advice?
00:37:26.559 --> 00:37:27.679
Where do they begin?
00:37:27.679 --> 00:37:33.760
What practical things make families, communities, and countries more resilient that we should be doing right now?
00:37:34.159 --> 00:37:46.480
Well, I would say that the first step is to take an actual practical interest in what the problems are likely to be that we already know about, and even before we get on to the ones that are imponderable, and think how best to mitigate them.
00:37:46.480 --> 00:38:00.480
But that at the moment, particularly in the UK, is made even more difficult than it has to be by the the refusal of central government to embark on the national conversation on defense that they have said is essential.
00:38:00.480 --> 00:38:14.719
So there are other people around the outsider government working without and in spite of that central leadership that are trying to get the message across of what kind of problems we might be facing and how best to reduce their impact on our daily lives.
00:38:14.719 --> 00:38:18.559
One of those efforts is coming up later in the month in September.
00:38:18.559 --> 00:38:40.400
From the 21st to the 24th, there's going to be the broadcast on Sky TV of something called The War Game, which is a televised version of a podcast that they issued during 2025, playing out what it would look like if Russia did decide that the United Kingdom was a sufficiently soft target that it could be coerced through uh through forceful means.
00:38:40.400 --> 00:38:50.079
Now, I shan't give away any more of the plot than that, but to understand the the scale of the challenge that we're facing and what can be done about it, I would strongly recommend listening into that.
00:38:51.199 --> 00:38:52.159
I will do.
00:38:52.159 --> 00:38:53.599
Uh thank you very much.
00:38:53.599 --> 00:38:57.039
Well, I I'll just finish on this one quick question.
00:38:57.039 --> 00:39:03.760
Um uh having written this book, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of Western democracy?
00:39:04.559 --> 00:39:06.239
Sadly, very pessimistic.
00:39:06.239 --> 00:39:21.760
And uh you will have seen that I mention in the book that every time I try to inject some note of optimism or look for a silver lining or try to think it's not that bad, that is the part of the book that turns out to be completely wrong, and all of the other predictions uh turn out to be right.
00:39:21.760 --> 00:39:31.039
As I mentioned before, I really hope that I'm gonna be proven wrong soon about how bad things can get, uh, but it hasn't happened yet.
00:39:31.440 --> 00:39:35.360
All right, I'm gonna I'm gonna make one more attempt to finish on a slightly positive note.
00:39:35.360 --> 00:39:41.039
If we were sitting here again in five years' time, what developments would tell you we got this right?
00:39:42.800 --> 00:39:43.119
Ah.
00:39:43.119 --> 00:39:49.119
Well, if we if the worst case scenarios are right, then we won't be sitting here in five years' time.
00:39:49.119 --> 00:40:05.840
But short of that, um, where will the UK, where will Europe be in a new world where the United States has retreated to the Western Hemisphere and abandoned its allies in Europe and East Asia to the spheres of influence of the respective major powers?
00:40:05.840 --> 00:40:21.760
Uh we will be far poorer, we will be under much greater threat, we will be dealing with uh a conflict with Russia which has spread far beyond Ukraine, and uh I very much hope, for all of those reasons, that I'm wrong.
00:40:22.880 --> 00:40:23.199
Okay.
00:40:23.199 --> 00:40:28.000
That's not positive, but it's probably very realistic.
00:40:28.000 --> 00:40:34.320
And uh on in on that uh note, I think um I'll say thank you very much indeed for your time, Keir.
00:40:34.320 --> 00:40:37.199
It's a great read, is this book, hugely informative.
00:40:37.199 --> 00:40:41.599
Uh, it does give serious pause for thought, and I thoroughly recommend it.
00:40:41.599 --> 00:40:48.639
American Overthrow, Moscow's Endgame and It's Long War with Washington is the full title of the book.
00:40:48.639 --> 00:40:50.639
Uh, available in all good bookshops.
00:40:50.639 --> 00:40:54.480
I got mine on Amazon uh last night on the Kindle.
00:40:54.480 --> 00:40:58.960
Um so very, very good book, very good read, and I thoroughly recommend it.
00:40:58.960 --> 00:41:20.639
Uh Kia, thank you very much indeed for your time, and thank you for listening to Fault Lines.
00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:00.959
It's not just Putin.
00:00:00.959 --> 00:00:03.600
When Putin goes, Putinism is going to continue.
00:00:03.600 --> 00:00:09.039
It's not just Trump, because it's not a single individual that's directing the whole of US state policy.
00:00:09.039 --> 00:00:14.080
Instead, there are people around him who think like him and are implementing the same directions.
00:00:14.080 --> 00:00:27.440
And some of the damage that has already been done and some of the changes that have been brought about both domestically within the United States and internationally are either irreversible or would take a very long time to put right.
00:00:34.799 --> 00:00:41.280
America has always been Britain's closest ally, and for many of us, the anchor of the democratic West.
00:00:41.280 --> 00:00:47.039
Yet over a remarkably short period, we've watched events there with growing disbelief.
00:00:47.039 --> 00:00:56.159
Institutions challenged, alliances questioned, political norms discarded, and society becoming ever more polarized.
00:00:56.159 --> 00:01:02.320
Well, my guest today believes these aren't isolated events, but part of a much bigger picture.
00:01:02.320 --> 00:01:06.239
Keir Giles is one of Britain's leading experts on Russia.
00:01:06.239 --> 00:01:17.359
His latest book, American Overthrow, is a forensic evidence-based examination of the extraordinary transformation taking place inside the United States.
00:01:17.359 --> 00:01:28.640
But today's conversation isn't really just about America, it's about what the uh Americans experience means for Britain, Europe, and the future of Western democracy.
00:01:28.640 --> 00:01:31.920
Thanks very much.
00:01:31.920 --> 00:01:33.040
Thank you for having me.
00:01:33.040 --> 00:01:42.319
I think your central thesis, if I've understood it correctly, is that America is is beginning to resemble Russia in in some striking ways.
00:01:42.319 --> 00:01:48.000
And that's for perhaps people who don't follow geopotic geopolitics closely, that's a bold claim.
00:01:48.000 --> 00:01:49.439
What do you mean by that?
00:01:49.920 --> 00:01:51.439
Well, there are two aspects to this.
00:01:51.439 --> 00:01:54.159
One, people will probably already have noticed.
00:01:54.159 --> 00:01:57.040
Uh the second may be far harder to discern.
00:01:57.040 --> 00:02:07.760
The first aspect is the way I started writing the book, which was looking at all of the ways in which the United States was now falling in line with what Russia wanted it to do under the second Trump presidency.
00:02:07.760 --> 00:02:15.919
That was the most obvious external manifestation of how the United States now saw Russia as a partner, and in fact somebody to emulate rather than an adversary.
00:02:15.919 --> 00:02:19.120
And there are some high profile things that most people will be aware of.
00:02:19.120 --> 00:02:32.240
The changing sides on Ukraine, for example, the way in which the United States is no longer so committed to the support of its allies and friends around the world, but instead intends to allow a free hand for the people it previously opposed.
00:02:32.240 --> 00:02:33.599
All of that is fairly clear.
00:02:33.599 --> 00:02:41.759
But what I discovered while writing the book was that there was actually something deeper and less obvious going on within the United States itself.
00:02:41.759 --> 00:02:45.919
And those are those isolated elements, so it appears that you mentioned.
00:02:45.919 --> 00:03:08.639
But looking at them overall, there's a pattern, and the pattern is very disturbing for people who are professional watchers of Russia, whether they're journalists, whether they're academics, whether they are analysts, all the people that have closely observed the processes that have happened in Russia over the last twenty five years, are now saying we see the same thing happening in the United States as well.
00:03:08.639 --> 00:03:22.080
It is as though the new administration had taken the manual from Vladimir Putin about how to consolidate power once you arrive in the presidency twenty-five years ago, and are now applying it step by step within the United States itself.
00:03:22.080 --> 00:03:29.680
Now there's a problem with that, apart obviously from what it means for people who are in the United States and are affected by it around the world.
00:03:29.680 --> 00:03:31.599
The problem is it sounds mad.
00:03:31.599 --> 00:03:48.639
It sounds insane, it's so far-fetched, and as one reviewer put it, it sounds preposterous unless and until you actually start peeling away the layers of evidence and examining it in detail, and then the evidence starts to stack up until it's very hard to look away and very hard to argue against.
00:03:48.639 --> 00:03:58.080
That same uh that same reviewer that said it was preposterous eventually concluded it's not preposterous because there's no chink in the armor of evidence, he said.
00:03:58.080 --> 00:04:00.159
And that's the most disturbing element of it.
00:04:00.159 --> 00:04:12.319
It's so consistent across the board, across all of these manifestations of what looks like Russia being mimicked by the new US administration in domestic affairs as well as internationally.
00:04:13.919 --> 00:04:18.399
Well, look, I mean you go into great detail as to how this may have come about.
00:04:18.399 --> 00:04:29.360
I mean, and speaking as a Cold War veteran, I recognize the Russian playbook and we'll go into more detail about how that works, the subversion, come to that later.
00:04:29.360 --> 00:04:34.639
Um But some might say that Well, look, this simply sounds like an anti-Trump book.
00:04:34.639 --> 00:04:37.199
What do you say to the to those critics?
00:04:37.839 --> 00:04:59.360
Well, I've been extremely careful not to make it an anti-Trump book as far as is possible, because whenever you describe what Trump says and does, it's pretty much inevitably going to be making him look like a figure that is harmful to the interests not just of the United States, but also to much of the rest of the world as well.
00:04:59.360 --> 00:05:06.560
You can't quote Trump without making him look uh both deranged and, of course, malevolent.
00:05:06.560 --> 00:05:21.279
So in that respect, um making not an anti-Trump book, the closest I could get was quoting also those people who are explaining Trump's behavior by other means, saying, for instance, that uh no, he is in fact not uh the person you see on television.
00:05:21.279 --> 00:05:23.600
Behind the scenes, he's a very sharp operator.
00:05:23.600 --> 00:05:29.839
He has a strategic plan, he knows what he's doing, and everything that we see is just a charade for the cameras.
00:05:29.839 --> 00:05:35.920
So I do talk, I did talk to those people and get their views while researching for the book.
00:05:35.920 --> 00:05:46.639
The problem is it's very hard to sustain that idea of who Trump is and what he is doing, if you then try to compare it with what's actually happening in real life.
00:05:46.639 --> 00:05:49.360
And of course that's a tension within the book.
00:05:49.360 --> 00:05:52.560
Why exactly is Trump behaving in the way that he is?
00:05:52.560 --> 00:06:03.040
It's been pointed out that if there were an effort to use Trump as a conscious agent of a foreign power, he would be an appalling person to choose to do it.
00:06:03.040 --> 00:06:12.639
Because if you want somebody to do something confidential, you don't want a garrulous individual who can't control his own mouth and is irrational and impulsive.
00:06:12.639 --> 00:06:18.800
But, of course, there are two elements to that that uh that call into question what is going on in the United States.
00:06:18.800 --> 00:06:30.399
First of all, if it is not Trump acting consciously, that doesn't rule out the fact that he's being exploited and manipulated in some manner to bring about the outcomes that foreign powers want.
00:06:30.399 --> 00:06:42.160
Second, of course, just as we always had to say that in Russia, it's not just Putin that is making Russia do what it does, it's the group around him, of course, supported by a large section of the population.
00:06:42.160 --> 00:06:44.240
Exactly the same in the United States.
00:06:44.240 --> 00:06:45.680
It's not just Trump.
00:06:45.680 --> 00:07:05.519
We can see that Trump is he has his foot on the throttle and the accelerators there barreling down the road towards what closely resembles authoritarianism in the United States, but what we can't see is whose hand is on the steering wheel, who's read the manual, who is actually implementing all of the long-term strategic planning that is taking them to that point.
00:07:05.519 --> 00:07:14.639
So I stress in the book over and over again Trump is just the figurehead, but instead it is a group of individuals that have chosen this path for the United States.
00:07:15.360 --> 00:07:17.839
Well, I mean, let's briefly mention a couple of those.
00:07:17.839 --> 00:07:21.920
For people who are interested in American politics, um a couple of names immediately come to mind.
00:07:21.920 --> 00:07:30.240
Elbridge Colby and Stephen Miller uh are two that come to mind, and you specifically mentioned those in your book.
00:07:31.519 --> 00:07:32.399
I mentioned them.
00:07:32.399 --> 00:07:35.759
I do not ascribe any motivations to them.
00:07:35.759 --> 00:07:48.319
I describe what they have said and what they have done, and if the reader concludes from that that they are working against the interests of not just the the Western world but the United States, unfortunately there's not a great deal I can do about that.
00:07:48.319 --> 00:07:55.680
But in each of these cases, when describing the actions, I have tried to be as objective and as neutral as possible.
00:07:55.680 --> 00:08:06.319
And of course, in all cases, making sure that if readers want to dig deeper into the subject, they can head back to the extremely copious footnotes at the back of the book to see where all of this is coming from.
00:08:06.319 --> 00:08:15.279
What I haven't done is try to step beyond the evidence to speculate about why people are doing what they're doing and what hand Russia has done in it.
00:08:15.279 --> 00:08:33.679
Now, some people might find that a little unsatisfactory, but there are plenty of other books that are ascribing motivations to Trump and the people around him saying that they are agents of the Russian state, for example, doing that, stepping beyond what is actually provable in the open sources that we have access to.
00:08:33.679 --> 00:08:46.000
I've tried to avoid doing that and let the reader reach their own conclusions by seeing these patterns that are repeated so often and so precisely across so many areas of the behavior of the Trump administration.
00:08:55.440 --> 00:09:02.000
And one wonders how much of what is going on is is more a result of cock-up than conspiracy.
00:09:03.200 --> 00:09:18.559
Yes, it's always it's always a question, particularly when you you see some of the counterproductive things that the United States administration has has tried to do, achieving exactly the opposite result to what they actually set out and stated was the intent.
00:09:18.559 --> 00:09:37.519
But again, looking at the pattern overall, sometimes it looks like ust uh chaos as uh completely random, unpredictable actions, especially in the first few months of the new Trump administration, when the Doge group was brought in to take a fire axe to so many American institutions.
00:09:37.519 --> 00:09:39.759
It looked like there was no plan.
00:09:39.759 --> 00:09:42.399
It was completely wild, unscripted.
00:09:42.399 --> 00:09:50.720
But then you look again at the patterns that are that emerge and the things that are common to all of the actions that were being undertaken at that time.
00:09:50.720 --> 00:09:55.440
And that's when you see that there are consistent themes to a lot of what is being done.
00:09:55.440 --> 00:10:02.480
And the most disturbing aspect of that is that the single most powerful consistent theme is destruction of U.S.
00:10:02.480 --> 00:10:04.159
power and agency.
00:10:04.159 --> 00:10:11.360
Destruction of the ability of the United States to protect itself against foreign powers and to protect Americans at home.
00:10:11.360 --> 00:10:18.159
Let's not forget this is not all just about foreign policy, but there are direct impacts on how people live in the United States as well.
00:10:18.159 --> 00:10:37.039
Taking the administrations that had previously kept Americans healthy and safe and dismantling them has led directly to surges in communicable diseases in the United States, in food-based illnesses, no vaccination, no food checks, and you're in an unhealthy place already.
00:10:37.039 --> 00:10:50.000
And that's even before you start on the economic damage and the changes to the well-being of the the least well the lowest income sectors of the American population, which have been absolutely devastating.
00:10:50.000 --> 00:11:01.200
So all of these different aspects have just this one theme in common, which it is doing damage to the United States and to its people under the guise of an America first agenda.
00:11:02.320 --> 00:11:04.639
Most of my audience lives in Britain.
00:11:04.639 --> 00:11:09.039
Um why should events in America matter to them personally?
00:11:10.080 --> 00:11:14.960
Well, there are the direct consequences and there are the long-term implications, and they're slightly different.
00:11:14.960 --> 00:11:29.600
First of all, if you live in the UK, then you're probably aware that the defense and security policy of your country has been predicated for as long as anyone can remember on the United States always being there as an ally.
00:11:29.600 --> 00:11:38.960
In fact, the whole force design of the British Armed Forces is uh it was explicitly we're not going to go to war unless it's part of a coalition and the United States is going to be the biggest member.
00:11:38.960 --> 00:11:44.799
So in some respects, the British Armed Forces are designed as a bolt-on accessory to the United States.
00:11:44.799 --> 00:12:02.080
Now, if those assumptions are no longer valid, that upends not only the whole of the defense and security planning of the country and its reliance on alliances of which the United States is the leading member, but even the force design of how we actually protect and defend ourselves against adversaries.
00:12:02.080 --> 00:12:16.639
That comes through most clearly, of course, in the new US policy about the relationship with European defense and with NATO and trying to make sure that the conflict with Russia is held at the front line in Ukraine where it is at the moment, as opposed to coming home to us.
00:12:16.639 --> 00:12:25.679
But there are also all kinds of other relationships with the United States that are in a state of flux and potentially in a state of upheaval.
00:12:25.679 --> 00:12:47.759
And to the extent that that forms the basis of the rules-based international order and the global economy that has kept us relatively prosperous and secure for as long as people can remember, it demands a whole set of reevaluation of basic assumptions about the nature of the United Kingdom's place in the world and how it organizes its foreign affairs.
00:12:47.759 --> 00:12:50.399
And then there are the long-term implications.
00:12:50.399 --> 00:12:56.480
Back in twenty sixteen, almost exactly a decade ago now, I wrote a manual.
00:12:56.480 --> 00:12:59.679
It's called The Handbook of Russian Information Warfare.
00:12:59.679 --> 00:13:02.320
It came out through NATO Defense College in Rome.
00:13:02.320 --> 00:13:23.679
And it was about how Russia uses information to get its way, without necessarily having to roll tanks across a border, but still at its most ambitious, looking at regime change in the target country so that Russia could take control of the foreign policy and security policy of the victim state without necessarily having to actually invade it.
00:13:23.679 --> 00:13:31.200
Now what we see now appears very much like a live action case study of that succeeding in the United States.
00:13:31.200 --> 00:13:33.759
But the United States is not the only target.
00:13:33.759 --> 00:13:39.519
There are countries around the world where Russia might have a similar level of ambition, and not just small countries.
00:13:39.519 --> 00:13:51.519
We see the interference in democratic processes, we see the subversion, the malign influence that is never tied to a specific, sorry, is not always tied to a specific electoral event, like for example the Brexit referendum.
00:13:51.519 --> 00:13:53.679
Instead, it's a constant process.
00:13:53.679 --> 00:13:56.879
If it succeeds, that put us puts us all in danger.
00:13:58.240 --> 00:13:59.600
Let's talk about that...
00:13:59.919 --> 00:14:07.759
how that playbook works, um, because uh I think a lot of people they associate it with russophobia.
00:14:07.759 --> 00:14:14.559
They they don't believe that um that that Russia has such a malign influence on our day-to-day lives.
00:14:14.559 --> 00:14:20.240
So just lay out for us the sort of things that that are happening right now.
00:14:21.039 --> 00:14:27.759
The people who associate it with Russophobia tend to be the people who haven't actually listened to what Russia itself says about this.
00:14:27.759 --> 00:14:36.399
The the handbook of Russian information warfare was all drawn from Russian sources, laying out Moscow's ambition to do this to people like us.
00:14:36.399 --> 00:14:38.960
And what does the overall long-term process look like?
00:14:38.960 --> 00:14:41.120
And I stress this is a long-term thing.
00:14:41.120 --> 00:14:50.960
It's not just something that is switched on and off uh at a random basis or in response to specific events like the referendum on independence for Scotland, for example.
00:14:50.960 --> 00:14:58.960
Let's take a uh a 30-year time span and look at Russia's ambition and then the practical result, again, coming back to the United States.
00:14:58.960 --> 00:15:01.759
You might have heard of um Alexander Dugin.
00:15:01.759 --> 00:15:20.799
He's uh a pseudophilosopher and uh and political historian within Russia, one of the immensely um Hirsuit philosopher figures that uh that has written vast books, one back in 1997 called The The Foundations of Geopolitics, 997 pages, and don't I know it?
00:15:20.799 --> 00:15:34.480
One of the things that he laid out there was a plan for how Russia could restore its power in the world and its control over a part of Europe by neutralizing the obstacle that was presented by the United States.
00:15:34.480 --> 00:15:55.120
He said we need to activate using our methods of information warfare and encourage the right wing of the Republican Party in the United States to come to power and to push for isolationism, for withdrawing US power globally, for retreating to the Western Hemisphere and leaving Europe as Russia's sphere of influence.
00:15:55.120 --> 00:16:07.679
Now, twenty-nine years later, you have a US national security strategy which says exactly that, and not only that, but also Dorgand explained this in terms of a new Monroe doctrine.
00:16:07.679 --> 00:16:11.919
That's precisely the language which the new Trump administration has adopted as well.
00:16:11.919 --> 00:16:27.519
So you look at instances like that where Russia is saying very clearly what it wants to achieve, and then precisely that happens, and it makes it quite hard to not look for a connection between the two and to pretend that this is all happening spontaneously rather than with Moscow's assistance.
00:16:28.320 --> 00:16:34.960
And they don't need to necessarily uh directly try and influence something, do they?
00:16:34.960 --> 00:17:04.720
Well one of their greatest uh I wouldn't say I don't want to use the word skills, uh but modus operanda is probably a better term, uh is to just create um uh chaos by having uh if you've got a particular situation uh going on in a in a community to have people in favor, have people against, and have their bots actually have that conversation to rile up each um particular side of the so polarizing effectively.
00:17:05.279 --> 00:17:05.920
Absolutely right.
00:17:05.920 --> 00:17:09.039
And setting both sides against the middle, and that's not just online.
00:17:09.039 --> 00:17:19.200
We see multiple instances where Russia-backed or Russia-influenced groups at both sides of the political spectrum have actually been brought out onto the streets in physical space to confront each other.
00:17:19.200 --> 00:17:22.720
There have been multiple s instances like that in the United States.
00:17:22.720 --> 00:17:37.599
So Russia doesn't necessarily invent the social problems that it exploits and rides to target its victims, but it is adept at finding them and then needling them to make things worse, to break down societal cohesion, to reduce trust in government institutions.
00:17:37.599 --> 00:17:48.559
So you have now a situation in the UK where there's the the start of organized civil disobedience and potentially even organized resistance against the government's policy on migrants.
00:17:48.559 --> 00:17:54.799
That's exactly the kind of thing that the issues that Russia has sought to exploit in the past.
00:17:54.799 --> 00:18:03.359
They don't need to actually get people incensed about the issue and bring them out onto the streets because the British government has done a good enough job at that already.
00:18:03.359 --> 00:18:20.799
But what they can do is ride that and make sure that the dissent and the the conflict and the discord between all of the different elements of society that have wildly different views on this are exacerbated to the point where it makes conflict within society more likely not less.
00:18:21.599 --> 00:18:22.559
It's fascinating.
00:18:22.559 --> 00:18:27.279
And what role I looked at countries like Finland.
00:18:27.279 --> 00:18:32.960
Uh Finland's probably the best example actually of of getting their act together when it comes to resilience.
00:18:32.960 --> 00:18:53.119
And and the the resilience is goes to their very core, and particularly in terms of their their mainstream media and and how they have a a built-in defense to this kind of uh disinformation, misinformation, mischief, if you like, that's that's that's constantly being exploited by uh hostile actors like Russia.
00:18:53.119 --> 00:18:54.559
Russia's not alone.
00:18:54.559 --> 00:19:04.720
Um so what should we learn, what should our mainstream media learn in terms of how they uh should adapt to this environment?
00:19:04.720 --> 00:19:06.000
Well, yes, it's true.
00:19:06.079 --> 00:19:24.640
Finland is always the poster charge for this, not just societal resilience and information resilience, but even the broad concept of we have a neighbor that is likely to try to interfere, we need to make sure that our economy can keep going, um, society continues to function, people are kept alive while Russia is doing its best to make sure that they don't.
00:19:24.640 --> 00:19:36.640
And that's the the underlying principle between behind comprehensive defense, making sure that the opportunities for Russia to reach in and cause disruption are minimized to the greatest extent possible.
00:19:36.640 --> 00:19:44.640
And within that, there is the understanding that Russia uses information as a tool, and that needs to be defended against.
00:19:44.640 --> 00:19:52.880
And this is uh firmly established within the Finnish, and not just the Finnish, but the other frontline states, understanding of their vulnerabilities.
00:19:52.880 --> 00:20:02.480
But the further west you go, as with so many other uh security problems, the less the recognition is that this is a means by which our adversaries can hurt us.
00:20:02.480 --> 00:20:16.559
Now you don't have a universal pattern for what can be done across Europe or indeed across the world, because there are so many different, not just legal environments, not just regulatory frameworks for how you work with the media, but even societal assumptions.
00:20:16.559 --> 00:20:26.720
If it is not acceptable in your society for the government to tell people what is right and what is wrong, that's a huge handicap when you're dealing with foreign malign influence or disinformation.
00:20:26.720 --> 00:20:33.599
By contrast, uh societies where that is an expected part of the duties of government find it much easier.
00:20:33.599 --> 00:20:53.440
And that's why the the often the the case study for what's possible with that kind of um permissive constitutional environment is Singapore and its Prevention of Online Falsehoods Act, which would be inconceivable in some way with a far more liberal information environment where the government can't do that kind of thing, like for example, Canada.
00:20:53.440 --> 00:21:11.759
So there's no one size fits all solution, but what is generally true about the countries west of Warfarsa, with the honorable exception of France for a change, is that they haven't taken this the challenge sufficiently seriously and have not invested enough time, resources, and political capital in actually addressing it.
00:21:13.119 --> 00:21:15.440
Well, um, which brings me to social media.
00:21:15.440 --> 00:21:30.640
I mean, we we all, I think, and the message I try to get across is that we all have uh a responsibility when using social media to to look for this to actually exercise some critical thinking rather than simply scrolling aimlessly through.
00:21:30.640 --> 00:21:34.799
If you come across something that triggers you, look for the source.
00:21:34.799 --> 00:21:37.440
Where who is saying this and why?
00:21:37.440 --> 00:21:50.240
And and if more of us looked at the post critically and s and and ask that ather than r rising to the bait and and getting into those comments and laying into whoever's post it was.
00:21:50.240 --> 00:21:54.799
That is where a lot of the damage is being done, isn't it, in social media.
00:21:55.359 --> 00:21:56.319
That's exactly right.
00:21:56.319 --> 00:22:03.920
And uh that comes back to some of the programs that have been undertaken to make Countries more resilient in information in psychological terms.
00:22:03.920 --> 00:22:18.640
Basic education from a very early age in being informed information consumers and not taking things at first value, but instead verifying, looking at the source, evaluating what the intent is behind this information and how trustworthy it is.
00:22:18.640 --> 00:22:36.160
Now, back in the early stages of the renewed recognition of how Russia exploits information, particularly in the new Internet age, uh, 10, 12 years ago, uh Finland, again, was uh was one of the first to undertake these comprehensive education programs for very young children.
00:22:36.160 --> 00:22:46.720
At the time, this was in some quarters dismissed as something which wouldn't have an effect because of the immensely long time that it takes for these kids to grow up and become information consumers.
00:22:46.720 --> 00:22:52.000
But those children are now sixteen and eighteen and a primary target for these campaigns.
00:22:52.000 --> 00:22:57.920
So it demonstrates again the long-term investment that's actually needed, and there's no time like the present to get started.
00:22:58.319 --> 00:22:58.640
Wow.
00:22:58.640 --> 00:23:21.839
There there was one killer line I found in your book which uh did strike me, which was Trump may go, but Trumpism probably won't, uh or - I can't remember the exact phrase you used, but uh uh basically a warning w tio say don't hink that America is simply going to revert back to good old Uncle Sam the moment Trump leaves the room.
00:23:22.640 --> 00:23:23.599
Exactly right.
00:23:23.599 --> 00:23:31.440
Uh and this comes back to one of the parallels at when we've had to explain, first of all, Russia and now the United States.
00:23:31.440 --> 00:23:32.480
It's not just Putin.
00:23:32.480 --> 00:23:35.119
When Putin goes, Putinism is going to continue.
00:23:35.119 --> 00:23:40.559
It's not just Trump, because it's not a single individual that's directing the whole of US state policy.
00:23:40.559 --> 00:23:45.599
Instead, there are people around him who think like him and are implementing the same directions.
00:23:45.599 --> 00:23:58.960
And some of the damage that has already been done and some of the changes that have been brought about both domestically within the United States and internationally are either irreversible or would take a very long time to put right.
00:23:58.960 --> 00:24:26.799
Removing the United States as the central pillar of global economic relationships, for example, through through tariff policy, the way in which the environmental protections for parts of the United States' countryside and for the keeping people safe from hazards in their food and their drinking water that have been abolished for the benefit of Trump's oligarch friends, will be difficult or impossible to restore.
00:24:26.799 --> 00:24:43.519
So all of these things have brought about permanent changes within the United States and in its relationship with its allies, even before you consider the possibility that the Trump group appears intent to cling to power after notional end of his second term in 2028.
00:24:44.799 --> 00:24:54.960
And when it comes to that, there's an awful lot of work that um Trump and his uh his cabinet um uh and advisers are doing to interfere with that election process.
00:24:54.960 --> 00:25:00.160
I mean, it's quite it's seriously frightening actually to see the measures that are being taken.
00:25:00.880 --> 00:25:09.839
Again, uh people might be aware of isolated things that have been done, small changes here and there, especially if they're in the United States and they're impacted directly by it.
00:25:09.839 --> 00:25:20.880
But it's when you bring all of that together into one place, into one coherent whole, that it becomes far more alarming because it's much clearer exactly what is going on.
00:25:20.880 --> 00:25:26.559
And uh the principle that's being applied is it it's not who votes that counts, it's who counts the votes.
00:25:26.559 --> 00:25:34.160
So the main effort, the intensest effort of the Trump administration is to get control of the counting of the votes.
00:25:34.160 --> 00:25:48.000
But there are also all kinds of measures going on around that, for dealing with uh an election and the aftermath of an election if it does not go the administration's way, and that is where some of the most alarming developments are taking place.
00:25:48.000 --> 00:26:04.960
Something that I I devote an entire chapter to in the the book, but also hoping very much that I'm wrong, that the midterms in November of this year, the presidential elections in 2028, go off smoothly, uh without dispute, and bring about a genuine electoral result.
00:26:04.960 --> 00:26:07.440
You do say you very much doubt that they will.
00:26:07.440 --> 00:26:08.960
I think we'll worse to that effect.
00:26:08.960 --> 00:26:11.119
I doubt that they will, as ever.
00:26:11.119 --> 00:26:16.480
I hope that uh one day one of these very depressing books that I write is actually going to turn out to be wrong.
00:26:18.400 --> 00:26:27.599
Well, okay, let's uh look, I the thing that strikes me is is if you're an American citizen, um the the hazards are many.
00:26:27.599 --> 00:26:33.359
Uh that there's a very good chance you'll have lost your job because of your political leaning.
00:26:33.359 --> 00:26:54.000
Um there's a very good chance you've you've lost a relationship because of your political leaning, because of the amount of control um that is being exerted uh by uh by the d b by the Trump regime and the way that uh legislation is changing and being changed d deliberately to favor the administration.
00:26:54.000 --> 00:27:00.720
Looking across the Atlantlantic, what warning signs are there for us in Britain and indeed Europe?
00:27:00.720 --> 00:27:03.519
What should we be paying attention to most of all?
00:27:04.240 --> 00:27:12.000
Well, first let's let's dwell on that point about the consequences for people who speak up in the United States who oppose what the administration is doing.
00:27:12.000 --> 00:27:13.759
Uh you mentioned losing their jobs.
00:27:13.759 --> 00:27:16.640
It's actually more profound than that for some people.
00:27:16.640 --> 00:27:34.400
The the legislative hounding, weaponizing the Department of Justice against them, uh making their life deliberately making their life miserable, even if it's not actually possible to bring charges against them because no crime has been committed, you can still impoverish and immiserate people by using the justice system.
00:27:34.400 --> 00:27:58.079
And that's part of the reason, I think, why we have not seen uh much in the way of organized, mass opposition to the ways in which the Trump administration is obviously damaging the interests of the country, because people are quite justifiably concerned about the personal consequences for them, which is a decision that Americans have not had to face in living memory.
00:27:58.079 --> 00:28:06.559
It's something which uh is far more understandable for people who live in Russia or in the frontline states that have previously been under totalitarian domination.
00:28:06.559 --> 00:28:15.519
Do you speak up and risk the consequences, or do you knuckle under and just go with it and uh you and therefore accept what is going to happen to your country?
00:28:15.519 --> 00:28:24.079
People are making that choice in the United States and they are suffering the consequences, but we shouldn't underestimate just how severe those consequences can be.
00:28:24.079 --> 00:28:31.119
And I go into a number of of case studies of that in the uh in the book, some of which are are really quite disturbing.
00:28:31.119 --> 00:28:38.559
But coming to the second part of your question, what about the the way it looks over here, and what exactly should we be concerned about?
00:28:38.559 --> 00:28:58.000
There's an element to the the way in which the Trump administration has been engaging with its international partners, which seems to be misunderstood and underestimated, particularly in Europe, including in the UK, which is that not everything they're saying about what is wrong with the relationship is actually wrong.
00:28:58.000 --> 00:29:00.160
It's not necessarily incorrect.
00:29:00.160 --> 00:29:09.599
It tends to get lost in the hype and the hyperbole, and of course the hypocrisy when the United States is accusing other countries of doing precisely what it has started doing itself.
00:29:09.599 --> 00:29:25.599
But that doesn't mean that there aren't underlying things which are entirely correct, like, for example, the central criticism of Europe during the first Trump administration, that it had completely abdicated the responsibility for its own defense and was relying on the United States.
00:29:25.599 --> 00:29:40.640
Now, countries across NATO have been remarkably slow to wake up to this and to recognize that it is in fact an issue, and it takes the pulling back of the American security blanket to realize, to make them realize they're suddenly going to be left out in the cold.
00:29:40.640 --> 00:29:55.440
Some are scrambling to catch up, others like the United Kingdom, as we heard from Andy Burnham this week, saying you can't uh you can't prioritize national security over social security, which is precisely the opposite of the problem that we're facing.
00:29:55.440 --> 00:30:01.599
So we shouldn't dismiss everything that the United States says just because of who is saying it.
00:30:01.599 --> 00:30:10.160
There are some very real problems in how they have interacted with their European partners and of course partners in East Asia over decades.
00:30:11.440 --> 00:30:12.640
Really interesting.
00:30:12.640 --> 00:30:17.119
Um we're nearing the end of the interview.
00:30:17.119 --> 00:30:18.799
I just want to bring in a couple more points.
00:30:18.799 --> 00:30:30.640
Um when um you'll obviously y'll you'll kTnow of uh Velina Tchakarova, when she was on fault lines, she argued that resilience isn't just about military capability.
00:30:30.640 --> 00:30:41.200
I mean I don't want to go too much into defense capability, because I think finally that is now being debated openly and uh about time too.
00:30:41.200 --> 00:30:44.720
Um but we've still clearly we've still got a a lot of work to do.
00:30:44.720 --> 00:30:54.240
But she made the point it's not just about military capability, it's also about energy, uh about food, supply chains, industry, technology, social cohesion.
00:30:54.240 --> 00:31:05.839
These are all um part of the collective that that we're going to be feeling uh the effects of um uh as as the the world changes.
00:31:05.839 --> 00:31:12.160
Does America's experience reinforce that much broader definition of national resilience?
00:31:12.880 --> 00:31:23.359
Well, America, surprisingly, has not yet suffered the consequences of dismantling its defenses domestically against hostile actors that might want to reach in and do it harm.
00:31:23.359 --> 00:31:40.559
I was um startled, particularly given what's happened to the cyber and information secur uh infrastructure security agency in the United States, that there have not been more reports of Iran taking advantage of that situation to strike back against the continental United States, for instance.
00:31:40.559 --> 00:31:53.359
But the lessons that we we have to learn here in the UK actually come from a different source altogether because all of those different aspects of resilience that Velina listed are all potential targets.
00:31:53.359 --> 00:32:01.759
And the more you neglect them, the more you invite people to lean in and to disrupt your society by exploiting those vulnerabilities.
00:32:01.759 --> 00:32:08.960
This isn't necessarily just a case of Russia launching missiles from up in the Norwegian Sea to hammer Western Europe.
00:32:08.960 --> 00:32:14.640
It's all of the other things that could cause disruption within society, not even necessarily human things.
00:32:14.640 --> 00:32:20.880
The response to floods, to wildfires, to all of the things that are going to come away from climate change.
00:32:20.880 --> 00:32:33.440
The response if, for example, organized resistance in the UK actually gets more widespread and causes more disruption, all of these are things which can disrupt that fragile balance of everyday life that effectively keeps people alive.
00:32:33.440 --> 00:32:43.920
So preparation for that and preparation for making sure that the effects are mitigated and minimized is absolutely vital just as much in the UK as it is in one of the frontline states.
00:32:43.920 --> 00:32:50.559
But it's another of the duties of government which governments appears at the moment absolutely unwilling to undertake.
00:32:51.440 --> 00:33:11.200
I mean, I'll touch briefly on Iran and and Ukraine, because the reason why that we're going to fe start feeling the impact of of uh of those two wars and and particularly in the areas we've discussed is because of these conflicts and which uh Velina again is is very keen to point out are connected.
00:33:11.200 --> 00:33:18.160
And I know an awful lot's been said about uh about Ukraine.
00:33:18.160 --> 00:33:21.599
Uh uh we pretty much know what's going on there.
00:33:21.599 --> 00:33:33.839
Um I I worry for Ukraine because I feel that um that people have discounted the the threat that Putin continues uh to to wield.
00:33:33.839 --> 00:33:38.480
And uh I think I think Ukraine's in for a very, very tough winter.
00:33:38.480 --> 00:33:48.480
And and people perhaps in this country don't appreciate, a lot of people don't appreciate how important Ukraine is to our future well-being.
00:33:49.359 --> 00:33:50.799
All of those things are true.
00:33:50.799 --> 00:34:01.839
Those people that pay attention uh to what's happening in Ukraine on a regular basis will have noticed that there's there's a bit of a lag in how descriptions of the conflict feed through into mainstream media.
00:34:01.839 --> 00:34:08.320
There tends to be a few months between some new phase of the war or some development and that actually reaching general consciousness.
00:34:08.320 --> 00:34:15.760
So we're still at the moment in a phase of optimism based on Ukrainian successes in carrying the war to Russia.
00:34:15.760 --> 00:34:35.519
But as you say, they are also all of the all of the conditions being set for the next winter in Ukraine being absolutely brutal, and Russia coming closer to its objective of making life in Ukraine effectively unlivable over the winter, at which point, of course, they may well have achieved their their objective of terrorizing Ukraine into surrender.
00:34:35.519 --> 00:34:50.159
So that is a real and active and immediate problem, and that is why you have some European countries scrambling to pour more air defenses into Ukraine to prevent that collapse that could potentially happen if Ukraine is not supported.
00:34:50.159 --> 00:35:05.920
But then there's the the second order implications of that, because as soon as, paradoxically, either Ukraine surrenders or there's a ceasefire freezing the conflict, that frees up Russia to do a great deal more against European countries in the next phases of its plan.
00:35:05.920 --> 00:35:17.519
And that includes, for instance, flowing all of those forces that are currently tied up in Ukraine into the infrastructure, the military infrastructure that Russia's been building along its eastern periphery and confronting NATO.
00:35:17.519 --> 00:35:34.559
It also means that it can push further in terms of coercing or intimidating or causing disruption in those European countries that it's targeting because it sees them as soft targets which will erode that general European cohesion and solidarity standing together to try to resist Russia.
00:35:34.559 --> 00:35:44.639
All of these things are become more dangerous after a ceasefire, not less, partly of course, because so many people across Europe will think the fighting's ended, the problem's gone away.
00:35:44.639 --> 00:35:49.599
And that is going to be the invitation that Russia needs to prove them wrong.
00:35:51.199 --> 00:35:57.840
Well, I as they say we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, although of course we can't really afford to relax at all.
00:35:57.840 --> 00:36:12.719
Um and we see the AFD with their six their uh election success uh in uh in Germany, and uh Merz has been a strong ally in the sense of re-arming Germany, of recognizing the threat.
00:36:12.719 --> 00:36:20.000
Uh that could all shift if uh if the AFD gains traction and ends up in a position of of power in Germany.
00:36:20.000 --> 00:36:25.840
Um that would be uh a very significant shift in in European politics.
00:36:25.840 --> 00:36:27.599
But let's not dwell on it now.
00:36:27.599 --> 00:36:38.800
Um I I just want to finish off really by looking at this from um a UK perspective, and it and it's relevant to Western Europeans as well.
00:36:38.800 --> 00:36:45.760
But if someone listening to this is thinking, well, this all feels rather overwhelming and rather gloomy.
00:36:45.760 --> 00:36:55.599
Um and there is a tendency, I think, and I notice it on social media for when you talk about this stuff, for people to go, oh no, no, I don't want to hear it.
00:36:55.599 --> 00:36:57.039
Don't want to listen.
00:36:57.039 --> 00:36:59.599
It's too gloomy, you know, too depressing.
00:36:59.599 --> 00:37:01.280
Got enough of our own problems.
00:37:01.280 --> 00:37:03.119
And I understand that completely.
00:37:03.119 --> 00:37:11.199
But action defeats despair, as is sort of something my old my old uh granddad used to say.
00:37:11.199 --> 00:37:12.880
And he's absolutely right.
00:37:12.880 --> 00:37:22.719
If if the if you to empower people and say, look, there are things you can do that will help, and that is building a sense of community, it's strengthening the community.
00:37:22.719 --> 00:37:26.559
Um what would be your your advice?
00:37:26.559 --> 00:37:27.679
Where do they begin?
00:37:27.679 --> 00:37:33.760
What practical things make families, communities, and countries more resilient that we should be doing right now?
00:37:34.159 --> 00:37:46.480
Well, I would say that the first step is to take an actual practical interest in what the problems are likely to be that we already know about, and even before we get on to the ones that are imponderable, and think how best to mitigate them.
00:37:46.480 --> 00:38:00.480
But that at the moment, particularly in the UK, is made even more difficult than it has to be by the the refusal of central government to embark on the national conversation on defense that they have said is essential.
00:38:00.480 --> 00:38:14.719
So there are other people around the outsider government working without and in spite of that central leadership that are trying to get the message across of what kind of problems we might be facing and how best to reduce their impact on our daily lives.
00:38:14.719 --> 00:38:18.559
One of those efforts is coming up later in the month in September.
00:38:18.559 --> 00:38:40.400
From the 21st to the 24th, there's going to be the broadcast on Sky TV of something called The War Game, which is a televised version of a podcast that they issued during 2025, playing out what it would look like if Russia did decide that the United Kingdom was a sufficiently soft target that it could be coerced through uh through forceful means.
00:38:40.400 --> 00:38:50.079
Now, I shan't give away any more of the plot than that, but to understand the the scale of the challenge that we're facing and what can be done about it, I would strongly recommend listening into that.
00:38:51.199 --> 00:38:52.159
I will do.
00:38:52.159 --> 00:38:53.599
Uh thank you very much.
00:38:53.599 --> 00:38:57.039
Well, I I'll just finish on this one quick question.
00:38:57.039 --> 00:39:03.760
Um uh having written this book, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of Western democracy?
00:39:04.559 --> 00:39:06.239
Sadly, very pessimistic.
00:39:06.239 --> 00:39:21.760
And uh you will have seen that I mention in the book that every time I try to inject some note of optimism or look for a silver lining or try to think it's not that bad, that is the part of the book that turns out to be completely wrong, and all of the other predictions uh turn out to be right.
00:39:21.760 --> 00:39:31.039
As I mentioned before, I really hope that I'm gonna be proven wrong soon about how bad things can get, uh, but it hasn't happened yet.
00:39:31.440 --> 00:39:35.360
All right, I'm gonna I'm gonna make one more attempt to finish on a slightly positive note.
00:39:35.360 --> 00:39:41.039
If we were sitting here again in five years' time, what developments would tell you we got this right?
00:39:42.800 --> 00:39:43.119
Ah.
00:39:43.119 --> 00:39:49.119
Well, if we if the worst case scenarios are right, then we won't be sitting here in five years' time.
00:39:49.119 --> 00:40:05.840
But short of that, um, where will the UK, where will Europe be in a new world where the United States has retreated to the Western Hemisphere and abandoned its allies in Europe and East Asia to the spheres of influence of the respective major powers?
00:40:05.840 --> 00:40:21.760
Uh we will be far poorer, we will be under much greater threat, we will be dealing with uh a conflict with Russia which has spread far beyond Ukraine, and uh I very much hope, for all of those reasons, that I'm wrong.
00:40:22.880 --> 00:40:23.199
Okay.
00:40:23.199 --> 00:40:28.000
That's not positive, but it's probably very realistic.
00:40:28.000 --> 00:40:34.320
And uh on in on that uh note, I think um I'll say thank you very much indeed for your time, Keir.
00:40:34.320 --> 00:40:37.199
It's a great read, is this book, hugely informative.
00:40:37.199 --> 00:40:41.599
Uh, it does give serious pause for thought, and I thoroughly recommend it.
00:40:41.599 --> 00:40:48.639
American Overthrow, Moscow's Endgame and It's Long War with Washington is the full title of the book.
00:40:48.639 --> 00:40:50.639
Uh, available in all good bookshops.
00:40:50.639 --> 00:40:54.480
I got mine on Amazon uh last night on the Kindle.
00:40:54.480 --> 00:40:58.960
Um so very, very good book, very good read, and I thoroughly recommend it.
00:40:58.960 --> 00:41:20.639
Uh Kia, thank you very much indeed for your time, and thank you for listening to Fault Lines.
