The 20 Most Undervalued & Overvalued Players (Ep. 932)

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Speaker 1: Over under. Let's talk to the prosy. Welcome in everybody to Fantasy pros. This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. It's be Joey, p Joe Pi Zappia with me today. Is my boy the Irish Hammer. It's Pat fitz Morris. That's right. I'm gonna call you the Fantasy Shalilee. You like that? You like that. We just gave Pat fitz Morris a nickname here, you know, because they go d Bros. Got his big pot energy, he's got his the Fantasy Shalile, that is. And I just finally saw one in real life and I have to hold one. It's it's pretty awesome. I gotta see weapon. And speaking of fearsome weapons, guess who's joining us again, it's Mason Dodd again joining us. Somehow, I don't know how he got so lucky that he came back here once again to join us on the program. We just had you on a few weeks ago. Mason, and you know, you're just so popular. The kids love you. You know, you just it's where it is and you're back again. We know. The YouTube channel over with the Fantasy Flock is just a huge deal and we are so grateful to have you back for today's show, My friend welcome. It could not be more excited. I got a whole fifteen seconds for y'all here, So let's let's get this going. There you go, baby, And of course the fantasy flock is over there. They got so many different channels over on the network. Go check it out over on YouTube. And today's show is the overrated and underrated players, right, the guys were overvalued and undervalued, And this is what it's all about, trying to understand where the consensus is, where you can find advantages, and where the disadvantages and the line mines might be or land mines. I don't know what line mines are, but I think I just made up something else. I'm full of creativity today. That's where we are. But the land mines you want to avoid, and of course the guys you want on your roster. So today we're going to go through running backs, wide receivers, tight end and quarterbacks that we think kind of fit those bills, both in the good and bad, because obviously that's what fantasy is. You gotta take the good the bad, you take them all in there. You have the facts of fantasy. You have them all together there and today, of course we're going to be using Fantasy pros dot Com slash rankings to go through all these in the ADPs and give you a sense of where the value lies and where things are going in the right direction and wrong. And of course we want to get you ready for everything that's going on here, and Draft Wizard is going to get you ready for your draft. So if you head over to fantasypros dot com slash Draft Wizard, because the regular season is just about here right now, and the Wizard has all the tools to get you prepared, get you ready for all of your drafts. We've got the Draft Simulator, We've got the Draft Assistant with Sync. 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We've got all that for you. Go to fantasypros dot com slash Offers, hit that bad Boy, and then go check out fantasypros dot com slash Draft Wizard to get prepared. Now. Speaking of getting prepared, let's start with the running back position, and gentlemen, let's talk about the guys that are underrated first. Here, Pat, let's start with you. Give me the running back that you feel right now is a little underrated based on the ADP you're seeing right now. I think AJ Dillon is a smidge underrated at RB twenty three. With no Davante Adams, the Packers are going to run at a higher rate this year, and they're going to target their running backs in the passing game at a higher rate. And this is quietly a top five defense. I mean, this defense has absolutely loaded. A defense that we saw completely shut down Patrick Mahomes last year in early November, a defense that pretty much smothered the forty nine ers offense in the playoffs, in a game their special teams gave away, so they're gonna favorable game scripts. And last year, there was a subtle shift in the rushing workload late in the year with the Packers. Over their last eight games played together, Aaron Jones averaged ten point two carries a game, Dylan thirteen point seven. And Dylan also assumed more of the goal line work late in the season, So I think he's going to be kind of the one A on their early downs. And Jones is still really valuable too, because he's going to get a lot of passing work, and you know, his targets have always spiked when Davante Adams hasn't played for the Packers, so we're going to see that. But I think Dylan is going to be the hammer here, and you know, Quadzilla, it would not surprise me if he averaged like fifteen carries a game. And if anything ever happened at Jones look out, it would be AJ Dillon in the moon. Well, you and I've seeing eye to eye on AJ Dillon all offseason long, and I'm excited with you as well about Dylan's prospects. Let's go to you Mason, give me a guy that you think of the running back position that you think is a little undervalued right now. So the first guy I have is going to be Travis Etan And the thesis with Travis c tn is I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding of where fantasy points come from at the running back position, where if you go through and if you look at the traditional running backs that you had ten years ago, obviously it's raw. I'm out of touches. How many touches are you gonna get? Are you playing in a great offense? Are you gonna be coming away with these touchdowns? Where we have seen that shift since twenty seventeen with the running back that you actually just mentioned in Aaron Jones, another running back in Alvin Kamara. We were seeing this with DeAndre Swift from the twenty twenty class, that there are running back prototypes that they don't need every single touch out of their backfield to be highly effective in fantasy football. All that they need is every high value touch out of their backfield, and those high value touches are going to be the targets that they receive as well as work in the red zone. And I think that Travistan has that in his range of outcomes. Now I'm a little more worried about the ETN call now that you have James Robinson looking healthy, because James Robinson may have the goal line role. And if James Robinson has the goal line role, this is going to be a pretty tough call. But right now, if you're looking at this ADP, you're getting Travis Ctn behind David Montgomery, behind Ezekiel Elliott behind I mean over ten picks behind Cam Akers, Like I think that's a bet that you have to just make because you could be essentially getting discount DeAndre Swift instead of taking Swift at the one two turn. You may be getting Travis ETN with the same prototype, comparable offenses in the fourth round, and these two guys going pretty close to each other. We've got Travis Etn is RB twenty one overall in the ADP on Fantasy pros and the half PPR aj Dillon at twenty three. You bring up a great point too, but fantasy running backs also getting those points from those catches, and so many people playing PPR leagues and ATM is gonna get those and I think he's that big playability as well, which is another huge factor. You know, with James Robinson coming back into this fold, real quick, Mason, talk to me about your expectations for him staying healthy over the full season. I mean, we saw cam Akers not great when he came back from that Achilles and rushed it a little bit. It feels like we're in a similar space here with James Robinson. Not to mention, it's a whole new regime here for an undrafted free agent running back. Do you think the draft capital on ATM just wins out over time? Anyway, I was making this bet last year. I will speak on the twenty Achilles saying that I'm not a doctor. I think even doctors that aren't close to the situation they can't speak on it with confidence because it's a completely different age in sports medicine right now. With Cam Akers, no nobody thought he would be back for the playoffs. I had no idea that James Robinson would be back for training camp. I thought that there was no way in hell James Robinson was going to avoid the pup list. So I think there are two things in the range of outcomes for Robinson. I think that a he may be the Jamal Williams to Aaron Jones back in Green Bay, where he may be getting carries on a week to week basis, but it may not matter because those carries may come inside the twenty yard lines, and carries inside the twenty yard lines just doesn't score fantasy points. But as I said, there's the outside chance that even if he does have a small time role in this offense, if James Robinson were to secure the red zone role, that could be a major hit to the overall ceiling that you could have with Travis c ten. So I think there is a wide range of outcomes with James Robinson. But if we knew exactly what was going to happen, if we knew it, he was for sure not playing, was for sure not going to be a factor, I would make the argument that at that point Travis C t shouldn't be drafted as the running back twenty one. Instead, he should be drafted as the running back ten. So well, I just yeah, no, I'm sorry, I'm with you, and I'm also kind of surprised to know that you're not a doctor. I got to change on my notes now I thought you were so and the you haven't lost a tick. I still have great respect for me, you know, in the industry still, but not a doctor. Mason thought. One of my degrees is the biology degree. If that counts for anything, well, getting closer. You're getting closer, that's for sure. I would I would say when you say pat that, like if Mason told you he was a doctor, especially you know, like on a TV show, even I would totally buy it. Like if Mason, yeah, maybe'll get that prescription. Mason looks Mason looks like a soap opera doctor. Yes, yeah, that's something fits and I will never ever be confused for ever. That's not going to happen for us. What might happen for you though? If you getting involved in the world of NFTs is something very special, don't know where to start, Well Spoiled Banana Society or SBS might be the fit for you. 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And because there will always be a Tampa Bay wide receiver, not only is your NFT competing for weekly and seasonal prizes this year, but your NFT carries over for the year after by competing for prizes with each season with no further purchase necessary. So you can find more info out about SBS or the Spoiled Banana Society over at SBS dot x y Z and make sure to join the community on discord and follow them on Twitter as well at SPS underscore x y z again once again, go check it out at www dot SBS dot x y z. Right now, that's the spoiled Bananas Society, Pat, Let's go to another running back that you don't think is quite spoiled yet, who is underrated in your opinion right now in fantasy and getting more underrated by the day. Joe, it's Antonio Gibson, he of the plummeting ADP and yeah, oh he fumbled the other day. He's returning kickoffs. Ron Rivera is making him clean up the toilets in the locker room. I mean, we're just like, I can't believe how fast people are, just like you know, jumping through windows to get off the bandwagon here. And this is a guy who has basically the same dimensions and same speed as Jonathan Taylor, like prototypical size and speed, big fast experience as a former college receiver. We know he's capable of catching passes and we saw that a little in the preseason the other day. And a guy who has scored double digit touchdowns and finished as a running back one in each of his first two years in the league. And yet we can't get away from this guy fast enough because we're worried about Brian Robinson. Like I like Brian Robinson as a prospect, But if we think that Antonio Gibson isn't going to get at least twelve touches a game and be at minimal flexworthy and a guy with his skill set who just turned twenty four, by the way, it's not like we're talking about a guy who's aging out of peak range. So I just don't understand why a guy as toolsy as this who actually has produced we're not just talking about like the production in theory, and people are just like fleeing from this guy. I don't understand it. So I'm happy to get him at whatever his ADP now is. And that's like I mean, it's slipping into like the eighth round, Joe, especially if you are going with a wide receiver or heavy build early and maybe you're getting you're running back to like in the seventh or eighth round. Like Gibson is just a perfect target. In my opinion, I love this. You've gone full million dollar man. Everyone has their price, and this is a guy that went from July being a fringe RB one to now being a flex RB basically in terms of the draft capital, and you're right at a certain point, why not take the chance. I think you make a good argument there, especially for the heavy wide receiver build, Mason, give me one more undervalued running back? You think right now that need everybody needs to basically tension, pay attention, and try to don't. I don't want to hype this up too much, but I think we saved the best for last, the most underrated player in fantasy football right now, according to this ADP. What if I were to tell you that you could have legitimately a top ten running back outside the first five rounds. What if I could tell you that you were getting a top ten running back behind Antonio Gibson, Damian Harris, aj Dillon, Josh Jacobs. This is a running back that his rookie season had six yards per carry over eight hundred rushing yards. The only running backs to ever have a rookie season with five yards per carrying over eight hundred rushing yards include A. Jane Peterson, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Clinton Portis, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott. You got Jeremy Hill on there too, but we'll ignore that JK. Dobbins checks every single box. I mean, right now, Gus Edwards getting put on the PDP list. Jakie Dobbins was a four star prospect coming out of high school Goes Ohio State dominates over two thousand rushing yards this final season. There is an elite level prospect coming into the NFL gets strapped them in the second round by the Baltimore Ravens puts up an incredible rookie season, and yes he's coming off the injury, but this isn't a situation where you have Jamison Williams tearing his ACL in January. This isn't a situation where you have Michael Gallant tearing his ACL week fifteen. Dobbins is twelve months removed from this, right. I understand they bring in Mike Davis. I understand that this is still probably going to be a pseudo committee. But even if JK. Dobbins lets up thirty percent of the carries in this backfield, not even including what Lamar Jackson's going to get, this team wants to be so run heavy that Dobbins can easily be a top ten running back behind a great offensive line. With the added efficiency that you were going to get from a Lamar Jackson and on top of it, I mean, it's an exciting player route for I gotta tell you, man, I'm so glad you brought up this player because this is a player I feel very comfortable with as an RB two. And sometimes he's going even later than NAT and drafts. He is just incredibly undervalued, under appreciated, and I think people forget I mean it's only been a year, but people for yet how good he was towards the end of his rookie season and that last six seven weeks that he had scoring touchdowns, getting not just carries, but getting the premium carries and then making the most And you nailed at Mason. This is a team that still wants to run the football. It's still the identity of the Ravens. Even if they do expand the passing game a little bit, it's still going to be a run heavy offense regardless. I love this call. Can't get enough of that one. AJ Dial and Antonio Gibson, Travis etn JK. Dobbins, three or four of these are pretty much been in most of my drafts. Here over on the channel. Let's flip the script here let's go overrated the guys who want to stay away from a little bit. Pat, Let's go and start with you here. Give me somebody who's a little overrated right now in terms of ADP, in terms of how you feel about them and their actual potential productivity. In twenty twenty two, Leonard Fournette, running back fourteen, typically going around the round two, round three turn. This is a guy who just had a perfect storm last year as far as having this cheriatric, immobile quarterback who would dump off at the slightest hint of pressure, and Giovanni Bernard was hurt, and Ronald Jones was a complete disaster in the passing game as he always is, and they didn't trust Keyshanvan, so Fournette was getting all of these dump offs and even though he wasn't being particularly effective, averaging I believe four point nine yards per target, which is pretty bad. Actually, he was just getting all this easy, easy fantasy points like half point PPR, full point PPR. Just a bananza of little dump off passes for him last year. So now you've got Giovanni Bernard back, You've got a rookie in Rashad White, who was actually very good at catching passes and pass blocking in college and now in the running game. You've got major problems with the middle of the Buccaneers offensive line. You know, Ali Marpett retired, Alex Kappa left in free agency, Ryan Jensen is hurt. One of the backups who was going to play guard is hurt now like for the whole season. So yeah, it's a mess there. So he's going to be less efficient as a runner most likely. And uh, you know, also Chris Godwin is back late in the season. I think that was spiking Fournette's weekly target totals even further. So I just don't see the same sort of passing game usage for Fournette this year, and maybe less efficiency in the running game. So I think he's kind of a trap right now. Not to be lost in this discussion, you called Tom Brady geriatric. I just want to make sure that happened, Joe, No one we have. We have not seen any quarterback in the Super Bowl era make a start at age forty five. It's not happens. You know. We saw let's see Vinnie Testaverde and I think Steve DeBerg started age forty four. Glory. Yeah, good times, all right, Mason Dodd. Let's go back over to you give me somebody that's overrated right now with the running back position in your opinion. Okay, I understand a lot of people aren't gonna like this. It is what it is, Ezekiel. Now, now I get it. Yes, you're gonna come at me. You're gonna say, well, Mason, come on, did you not hear he played through a torn el Come on, you gotta give him a break last year it didn't matter. Well, I would buy into that if it was just SETI production for Ezekiel Elliott for years, and then last year was just a random outlier. We saw the drop down door due to the torn PCL. But if we go back and just take a step back, look at Ezekie Elliott's entire NFL career rushing yards per game, starting as his rookie season one hundred and eight, ninety eight, ninety five, eighty four, sixty five, fifty eight, it's a straight land your line down like. It doesn't look like last season was an outlier. It looks like last season was just another year, a part of this trend. And Ezekie Elliott a great running back career. I mean, obviously when we root for the guy, but he is second in the NFL with active career touches, only behind mark Ingram. Is anybody excited about mark Ingram this year? So if we were to see a running back just naturally lose a step, it would make sense that it was Ezekie Elliott. This has been a continued trend, and you're looking at him in a range of drafts where you have to take him in the early third, middle of the third round according to this ADP. According to this ADP, I'm able to get Kyle Pitts instead. In reality, I think I'd rather take the elite level tight end in the third I think from a ross construction standpoint, it would make a lot more sense to wait until the end of the fourth round Grabbit Traviscytn as we already discussed, or wait until the beginning of the sixth round and Rabbit JK. Dobbins, Because if I'm gonna be honest with you, I'm probably more excited about both those running backs, not even including their cost, than Ezekiel Elliott tried up. Is there a strange illusion maation that the safety of Ezekiel Elliott is still there? Is that the biggest danger for people this year. I think the biggest danger is people are going ahead and looking at counting stats. So if you look at a Zekiel accounting stats, hell yeah, you can make you an argument. Oh base, and he was a low and running back one last year. He guys, he played seventeen weeks. He played seventeen weeks. Of course, you're going to be getting ahead of players like Derek Henry who only got to play half the season. In reality, if you look at a points per game basis, I mean he was the running back seventeen. That's where he's being drafted in this season. I would say that he's one of the most durable running backs in the NFL, and you have to give him his credit for that. But when I'm playing fantasy football, I'm looking for ceilings. In reality, I don't care if I get sixth place or twelfth place. That's the same for me. The only thing I'm trying to do is get first. So do I think Ezekiel could be a top five running back in fantasy this year? I don't see how that's in the range of outcomes. Great point too, you know you're talking about Ezekiel Elliot's seventeen four net of fourteen, the guys we just talked about in the twenties, AJ Dillon, Travis ATM JK. Dobbins even later. Yeah, to me, that's always been where the value is, which is why I'm still a very heavy wide receiver build person, because I think you could just get away with it this year because of where the running back talent is. The dead zone I think is grossly overestimated. Speaking of overestimated, let's get another under overrated player here. Excuse me the running back position for you, Pat, give me a second name at RB that's overrated for you. I will, and I love the Zeke call, by the way, and the Tyron Davis injury is certainly not going to help in that regard either with him missing some romance. So great job by you today, Pat, bringing up all the offensive line stuff because people don't whether it be Tampa or in Dallas, people don't really talk enough about that in fantasy, and I'm glad you guys are bringing it up today because I think it's very important people understand it. You know how great running back is. If you don't open up those holes, it's really tough, especially for the older guys, and so those older guys Leonard Fournette, Zikueliet need a little help these days. Yes, good segue, older guy, go right to be Joe, thank you. I'm not considering that a subtle Joli might have been around hundred years but it still packs a wallop. So Devin Singletary is my guy, and I think he's still being pushed up on the basis of his terrific finish last year. Certainly he was a wonderful asset for fantasy managers down the stretch and the playoffs when the Bills just basically turned everything over to him, decided to kick Zach Moss out of the running back rotation, and unfortunately Moss is back. Now they've drafted James Cook. This is a three headed beast, and it is a three headed beast on a team where since Josh Allen has become the starter four years ago, he has run for thirty one touchdowns and all Bills running backs combined have run for twenty eight. So we're, you know, splitting up a very small piece of pie three ways, and we think James Cook is probably going to get the passing down work that is where he excels. So it's early down stuff for Singletary, who might be sharing that with Zach Moss. I just don't see him being a comfortable start for you in fantasy football. You know when the season kicks off, and if he can't be a comfortable start for you, don't take him in a single digit round. Do you see it the same way, Mason? Do you think that Singletary didn't do enough last year to solidify that RB one in the offense? I think that looking at him as the RB one versus an RB two, in reality, that doesn't really matter. But I completely agree with the sentiment that you're right, James Cook's gonna get every target out of the backfield, and James Cook's getting every target of the backfield, Josh Allen's gonna be vulturing touchdowns at the goal line, and where are the high value touches coming for Devin Singletary? So I don't even care if you were to be the running back one from a per touch basis, I completely agree with the sentiment that, hell, who cares if he's the running back one getting twelve carries for sixty one rushing yards in a game, coming away with one reception for seven yards great on you. You've got the running back one of Buffalo giving you seven points. I'd much prefer having James Cook, who can go out there and get grab four receptions for twenty receiving yards and then whatever he gives you on the grounds a bonus fits Antonio Gibson at twenty four or Devin Singletary at twenty five. One offense is much better than the other. But how do you rank these two rbs? Gibson, even though they're both in like yeah, and like, I don't think Zach Moss should be part of that rotation for the Bill of the Keys. I don't buy that at all. I think they're just trying to showcase him to somebody to take them off their hands. Yeah, maybe maybe. I mean they're they're beat writers and they have some pretty good ones. I've been warning about this. I think Joe Biscalia is one of them, and he's been kind of warning about a messy committee. So I like, I hope you're right about that show, but I'm worried enough about it that I just do not want to touch Sincletary at all. I've seen enough Zach Moss that I don't need to see anymore, Zac Moss, I'm just gonna leave it at that. Let's take a quick break in the action to tell you about Airmedcare Network. Let's talk about your best defense for the unexpected. Are you prepared if the unthinkable happens? If a medical emergency arises. Airmedcare Network provides members with world class emergency air transport services to the nearest hospital with no out of pocket expenses. Join today and never pay a dime for your medical flight when flown by an AMCN provider. Insurance doesn't always cover the full cost of a medical emergency, so this is a great way to secure financial peace of mind. And membership's cost as little as eighty five dollars a year for your entire household. And right now, as a Fantasy Pros listener, you'll get up to a fifty dollar Visa or Amazon gift card with a new membership. Visit airmedcare Network dot com, forward slash Fantasy Pros and use that offer code Fantasy Pros. Because no matter where you are in the game of life, an Airmedcare Network membership is the protection no one should live without. And now back to the action, let's go to you, Mason, give me the last guy on your overrated RB list. Okay, I kind of cheated on this one because in high stage drafts he's never going in this range. But according to this ADP right now, Damien Harrison is going before Antonio Gibson, going before Clyde over to layer JK. Dobbins, who we just got done talking about. I mean even going before guys like Cordell Patterson, Rashad Penny, Chase Edmonds, Tony Pollard. I could never think about drafting Damon Harrison this range, and I think that he falls right back in line with the player that may have a relatively high floor. I can go out there and he can get twelve, thirteen, fourteen carries in a game, but in reality, he's gonna have absolutely no involvement as a pass catcher. If we go through and look at his overall stat line as a pass catcher throughout his entire NFL career, he has had a total of ten games with zero receptions zero, twelve games with one reception, in five games with two or more. So we're looking at a total of twenty seven games, where twenty two of those he's had one or fewer receptions. I understand last year is the running back twenty on a points per game basis, And yeah, he scored a touchdown a game. That's great, But in reality, touchdowns are going to be the most volatile statistic in fantasy football in the season to season basis. And if I'm looking at the upside that we're gonna get with a JK. Dobbins a couple picks later, even the upside with Antonio Gibson, who obviously he's plumbing down and drafts himself, as you've already discussed, I think I would rather probably just swing for the fences on those guys, all right, So there you have at the guys to stay away from. According to the fellas, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, Damien Harris and Devin's Singletary all names that certainly come with a little bit more risk. Maybe then we're willing to take at their current ADPs before we move ahead to the wide receivers. I want to press pause in the show because I want you to press pause on the podcast. Just pause, not stop, just pause, right, you come back and listen. But I just want to say thank you to everybody who's just been so kind to all of us. Here. In the last few weeks, everybody seems to be loving the content, so many nice comments on YouTube, so many subscriptions going through the roof on the YouTube channel here, and I just want to say thank you, and by half of all of us here, we really appreciate all these dms are getting the messages that tweets, all of that. But the one thing we don't have enough of that I think is a little bit more on the podcast review side. So if you're somebody who just listens to the pod, you don't watch us on YouTube or you don't have Twitter, we'd love for you to go over and drop a five star review of the podcast. It's a small thing. This is that time of year where I know you're all listening, and I know you're all enjoying it, and I know I got a lot of messages about the Disney Show on Monday, which was pretty hilarious. So like, if we're giving you good entertainment, good information, let us know, give us a five star review if you have the time, we'd love for you to do it. And then you can, of course come back to the show here and listen to the rest of it. So quick, little pause, go ahead, and there's lots of places you can find the podcast. Apple podcast is the best place to drop a review. Or you go to fanacypros dot com slash review and check it out there too. And now let's get back to the action here, and let's get back to the wide receivers and the wide receivers. Mason, we'll start with you this time around. Lead us off. Give me an underrated wide receiver you think deserves a little bit more love this year. Jerry Judy is the wide receiver one in Denver. I'm gonna I wish Andrew Rickson was here for this debate, but I want to hear it right now. Go for Okay, So I understand that everybody's gonna come through. They're gonna look at some season totals with Courtland Sutton. They're gonna remember the Courtland Sutton peak that they had a few years ago, and they're not gonna really dive in deep enough to see that Courtland Sutton that season wasn't even a top twenty four receiver on a points per game basis. You played sixteen weeks, so the totals look fine. But if we're going to look at the eleven weeks that you've had with Jerry Judy and Courtland Sutton on the same football field in Denver those eleven weeks. What if I were to tell you that Jerry Judy doubled Courtland Sutton doubled in receiving yards per game forty six receiving yards per game versus twenty three? Does that data matter? Though? When you consider we have a whole new quarterback here. Can we even go off of that because the weird quarterback train that they've had in Denver, they've never had anybody close to Russell Wilson was capable of spreading the ball around and doing more things with the football obviously too. Does that matter at all? Well, I definitely understand the thought process, and I'm not coming out here expecting Jerry Judy to double Courtland Sutton in production and games to play again together. Like if you look at my rankings, I have Jerry Judy eighteen Courtland Sutton nineteen, like I have them back to back. It's just in fantasy football, Jafts, you're able to get Jerry Judy a full round later than Courtland Sutton, if not sometimes two rounds later. And if we're going to go through and try to evaluate these receivers, we have to start it somewhere. I mean, if we walk this back, Jerry Judy at the same time, was a better prospect coming out of Alabama than Sutton was coming out of SMU. Jerry Judy has been more productive on the NFL field. And this all goes without being said that Jerry Judy is younger than Kinney Pickett. Jerry Judy is almost four years younger than Courtland Sutton. Am I going to assume that the wide receiver who's never posted a top twenty four wide receiver finished on a per game basis at twenty seven years old, all of a sudden continues to improve and the wide receiver younger than Kinney Pickett doesn't. So I understand the thought process. Oh, Sutton had one hundred air yards per game. Oh, Russell Wilson's a better deep ball thrower. Oh, it's going to be a better connection overall. But in reality, I think you're projecting a lot. You're ignoring what we've already seen. Where Sure, if you wanted to rank Sutton one spot before Jerry Judy, I'm fine, I have them back to back, But I don't think there should be a one to two round gap on these players in fantasy football drafts. Well, there's five wide receiver spots between them right now in ADP fits. It's really good to hear a counter argument to the Courtland Sutton love that we've gotten on the pod lately. So do you lay on the same spot too where you'd rather have Judy a little later than Sutton that he's current ADP. Absolutely, and let's leave it at that, because I'm more on this too, more to say on this later, So yes, I totally agree. I don't want to give any spoilers, all right, Pat, give me an underrated wide receiver from your point of view this year Rashad Bateman. And we saw the Raven spent a first round pick on Bateman in twenty twenty one, and then in the twenty twenty two draft, you know Bateman's I think we're going to see a second year breakout here because Bateman's first year was disappointing. Dealt with the core injury all year that I think slowed him down a lot. Then in twenty twenty two with the draft, they trade Marquise Hollywood Brown and then don't draft any wide receivers. I think that's kind of a signal that they've got immense confidence in Bateman to take a major step in twenty twenty two. It's pretty much gonna be the Bateman and Mark Andrew show, maybe with Isaiah likely is the third guy. Because the rest of the wide receivers here are just I mean, James Prochet, Thayland Wallace, Devin Duvernet. It's not a real attractive group. So there's like sneaky one hundred and forty, one hundred and fifty target potential for Bateman, and like, I love the guy. I mean, you know that I'm up here in Big ten country, Joe, although I guess the Big ten is now coast to coast but spread out than Yeah, yeah, so in you know, northern Illinois, heart of Big Ten Country. And uh, I fell in love with Bateman at Minnesota, like just pretty much no flaws in his game. Plays fast runs, great routes, tough after the catch, really terrific hands, can play inside or outside, did both at Minnesota. So a lot to like here, and I think he's going to have a really big season. I don't think most Homely Drafters have caught on his adp as wide receiver thirty five, and I think I've got him ranked like well ahead of Courtland Sutton at like wide receiver twenty two. I think here you have it all right, Mason, Let's go back to you with another wide receiver that's underrated. Okay, We're gonna go with another year two receiver that was also drafted in the first round, this time Kidarius Tony. Now, if you're looking at Tony's rookie season from a per game standpoint, it's gonna look like garbage wide receivers sixty eight. But we have to remember that Kandarius Tony was leaving games early. Kidarius Tony at the same time, was dealing with the multitude of injuries, so he wasn't in every down player. But the downs you did have Kidarius Tony on the field, he was electric, He was dynamic. This was a wide receiver with two point two yards per route run. Hear me out. I know this is gonna be a little bit of a longer list, but it's gonna illustrate my point. Receivers that had two point two yards per route run or more last season Kidarius Tony. As we already discussed, Cooper Cup, Deebo, Samuel Davante Adams and Tonio Brown, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Jamar Cha's Tyler Lockett, T. Higgins, Tyree Kill, Seedee Lamp. That is the company that Kidarius Tony is standing in. Would you just give me some better names, Mason? Really, I mean, those guys are not very good at football, and I know maybe you're not impressed by that one. I would value that right now. You're getting him at wide receiver forty seven, low and wide receiver four, high and wide receiver five. I mean Kenny Galladay with all reports out of New York Giants training camp apparently looks like he's just done. Maybe he's just a decoy there. So I think Tony does have a lot of upside, especially with the coaching change. Pat, Let's go to you for another one of your guys at wide receiver that you think is undervalued right now. It's not like people are sleeping on this guy. Everyone is excited about Gabriel Davis. Our ADP data says wide receiver twenty nine. And maybe you know, the Home League people who are drafting in the next week to ten days are a little slow to catch on the enthusiasm. Analysts have been displaying for this guy throughout the summer and spring. So when we last saw him, he was having that monstrous two hundred and one yard four touchdown game against the Chiefs of the playoffs. But he has been held down with his snap counts and targets target counts because he was playing behind Emmanuel Sanders. That's not going to happen this year. I mean, he's going to be seeing about ninety percent of the snaps. We can expect a big target bump. I'm not sure i'd buy some of the speculation that maybe see's nearly as many targets as Stefan Diggs, but like, he doesn't need a ton of targets to make it work. This guy's been a big play guy in his two years in the league sixteen point four yards per catch. I think he scored a touchdown on like over seventeen percent of his catches and over ten percent of his targets, which is just insane. So and of course he's playing in one of the most high powered passing games in the league. So I think Gabriel Davis still a bargain if you're going off this ADP. I know in a lot of analyst leagues, he's like sneaking into the fourth round some of the time, but fifty sixth round, Like, I think he's a really good value and maybe you can get him even a little later than that in some drafts. All right, So you got Gabriel Davis, Rashod Bateman, Jerry Judy, Kadarius Tony, all guys that I think are very worthy, I agree of a lot of people's attention and probably are a little underrated. With Darius Tony, I want to ask you this question, Pat real quick. You know he was so electric in such a short sample size last year. Is that dangerous in terms of draft capital because you haven't seen him play enough games to really see if he can sustain that productivity over a full season. I would say no, Joe, because, like my worry with him is not whether he's going to be good when he's healthy. If he's healthy, he's a guy you don't have to thank. Should I start him or not? Like I'm starting him if he's healthy. The concern is that he's like another Percy Harvin, this electricity from the University of Florida, who maybe just can't stay healthy. He's already having him, just got chills, Pat he did that, and not the good way. He just went up like the spying, the whole thing. I don't know. Yeah, I love Mason's call on that, and I love him too, like and I'm overweighted on him so far in my drafts. And you know, if he can't stay healthy, it's unfortune and I'll take that loss. But I've no doubt that if he stays healthy, he's going to be good and is going to be worthy of being in our lineups. 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Again, that's one word, Fantasy Pros b share to sign up now because there are deals ending every single day. Again, that's code Fantasy Pros for ten dollars off your first piece of sign memorabilia at Pristine Auction dot Com. And now back to the action. All right, Mason, let's hit an overrated wide receiver based on ADP. Yeah, this is someone going like literally two rounds behind Gabriel Davis and high stakes drafts. But based on this ADP, he's going two rounds before Gabriel Davis. Like it's very funny to see the difference between the two. But dk metcalf, i admit one of the best talents, best talents of the position in the NFL, coming off a season where he had a twenty six percent team target share in Seattle, like unbelievable talent. But what does dk metcalf thrive off of. He thrives off the deep ball. He is that deep target in Seattle. What do you need if you're a deep target a respectable offensive line so you have time to get downfield, and then a quarterback that is actually at least respectable with this deep ball accuracy. Well, right now he's playing behind the worst offensive line in the NFL, with either Drew Locker Gino Smith at quarterback. It's just a situation where I think that you have to avoid the Seattle Seahawks offense like the plague this year. It's going to be a team that can't run the ball, that tries throwing the ball and then with a have to go run run pass and it's third and ten. I don't think that Gino Smith is getting the job done. Does your opinion of DK Metcalf change if Jimmy Garoppolo as a quarterback in two weeks after one hundred percent? And I actually was more willing to drafts Dk Metcalf a few months ago in bastball leagues with the possibility that Jimmy g was going over there. And of course I'm not smart enough to say with this with certainty, but I would imagine if the Seattle Sehawks were making a play for Jimmy Garoppolo, they would have done it by now. Well, I think they're just waiting out the clock and then they can you know, haven't get cut, and then you go ahead and then you just swoop in there at the end because the forty nine ers are up against it with Garoppolo's contract everything, it seems like that's just the direction where things are gonna go. But I'm glad you are ready so quickly. I think that says a lot about your feeling about if that situation changes, which again it might. Deka slides a little bit in your drafts this weekend. Maybe you do take advantage of that and wait and see what happens. But right now, currently overrated. Who's overrated for you? Pat fitz Morris, Oh, Joe, it's Courtland Sutton. I feel I felt so bad for you that you've had to listen to like weeks, if not months, of debro and ericson with these Sortland Sutton platitudes. And you know, I don't have to say too much here because Mason just made such a great case in his promotion of Jerry Judy as being underrated, and I agree, like everyone is kind of assuming based on the ADP information in the drafts. I've seen that, like Sutton is the number one receiver in Denver, and I'm not so sure about that. I mean, Judy was such a fabulous runner in college and he's so good after the catch, and we haven't seen him put that all together in the NFL yet, but I think those skills are still there. And just one thing I want to spotlight in Mason alluded to this that after Jude he came back from that high ankle sprain he sustained in Week one last year, which I believe was Week eight. For those last eleven games, I mean, Courtland Sutton just disappeared in a puff of white smoke from that offense. Four targets a game, two catches a game, and twenty three point seven yards a game and zero touchdowns in the last eleven games. And this is a guy we want to like sign up to be our wide receiver two on our fantasy teams. Like no, yeah, Like that's not a small sample size. That's the better part of a full season. And I know Debro and Ericson think like Russell Wilson is the magic elixer that's going to make that all better, But I'm not so sure i'd buy it. Let's get to another one of your overrated guys, Mason, who do you want no part of right now? With the current ADP at wide receiver. Just another guy that's going to be playing with one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, Amora Cooper. Like if you were playing and maybe like a best ball tournament where you really need to be prioritized the production for weeks fifteen, sixteen, seventeen. Hell, you'll have Deshans in their great situation. You love Watson coming in and elevating the efficiency of the passing offense. Boid Jacoby Brissette. This is going to be one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL with some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL. I am a fan of David Bell. I mean with David Bell, I think he's this year's in Monroe Saint Brown. Not really a player you can draft in casual leagues just because he's not gonna have his breakouts later in the year. Just somewhat to keep on your watch list for the waiver wire. Maybe pick him up week nine, Buzz as soon as he's out there. It makes a couple of big plays, then we can get excited about it. Boyd. The Marie Cooper he shouldn't be startable, which Jacoby Brissette. So what I would rather do is in a casual fantasy football league, avoid a Marie Cooper when you're having to take him before guys like Gabriel Davis. He's going before Chris Godwin, he's going before Juju smith Schooster, Michael Thomas, Elijah Moore. Avoid him at that price point, wait a month or two, and then go out there and start sending some trade offers when we know the situation will be drastically better than the second half the year. Agreed wholeheartedly. Some players are better to draft, some betters are better. Some players, excuse me, are better to trade four. All right, give me one more name, pat that's overrated at wide receiver at their current ADP. All right, Joe, I really don't want any piece of Marquise Hollywood Brown at wide receiver twenty five. And I know people have been excited that he's reuniting with Kyler Murray, his college quarterback, and thinking that he's got this great runway in the first six weeks of the season with DeAndre Hopkins suspended, Well, DeAndre Hopkins is going to be back at some point, and then the target picture gets pretty messy there. And like Hollywood has always been this really erratic points scorer, and he kind of reminds me of DeShawn Jackson in that regard, a guy who can have this big game and just go nuclear one week and then the next two weeks are like, you know, two for hands of DeShawn Jackson. Like that's the thing to me. It's the drop balls, it's the bad routes. Like he's not really good. He's like that mistake hitter in baseball, or if you throw him a mistake, you know he's going to hit it out. So like he's that dude in my opinion, that's what it's hard to gauge in terms of productivity. Yeah, thanks Joe, And like that's the point I was going to make that DeShawn Jackson is on a different level. DeShawn Jackson rich like nine point nine yards per target over his career and Hollywood Brown averages like seven point four, which is kind of a mediocre number if we're being honest. So plus just you know, I'm sometimes a little biased against the smaller receivers too. I think it's easier for them to get banged up. But I just like I'm not as excited as other people are with the Hollywood Kyler Murray reunion. Yeah, I'm with you, man, all right. So just to recap to these are the names that we are lower on Courtland Sutton at twenty one. You have DK Metcalf in that range as well, with Maury Cooper and the Marques Brown at twenty five. So these are the guys that the gentlemen here today I think are overrated you should be aware of. Let's do the quarterback position next here, Pat, Let's start with you give me your underrated quarterback and you're overrated quarterback in twenty twenty two. Yeah, underrated, I'm gonna say Ryan Tannehill, or excuse me, overrated, I'm gonna say Ryan Tannehill. I think he's going quarterback eighteen and I just don't see it. Like I think that offense has really kind of gone to seed. The offensive line is worse. You know, they don't have a J. Brown anymore, Burks, who has not exactly been turning heads in training camp. They did bring in Robert Woods, but like we know what the Titans want to be they want to be like this ball control team. And Ryan Tannehill has kind of been living on the rushing touchdowns lately, Like I think he had seven of them last year, which sort of artificially spiked his value. And I just I don't know. I don't think we're gonna see Ryan Tannehill finish in even QB two range this year. I think he's going to drop out of that and there's a chance at some point they turned to Malik Willis, so m you know, underrated boy? Dare I call Derek Brown underrated? Or excuse Terrek Brown? Oh my god, Darren him so much now you just associated Yeah, I think he's a little underrated now that you mentioned it. Yeah, maybe just a little. But I think he's very strong. I'm thinking of Derek Carr, like who should who should get maybe more of a boost than he's getting with the de or the Davante Adams addition, and mainly like we've always seen Car put up these good, uh like yardage totals, but the touchdowns have kind of been lagging. I think Adams helps with that a lot this year. I think it's great that the AFC West is going to set up all these okay corral game scripts where it's just, you know, last last team to score wins. Um. I actually sort of in a way like that, the Raiders offensive line might not be that good because I think they're going to have issues running the ball, and I think like sort of the quick, short passing game is what's going to be there m offensively as a result. So I think cars is in line to put up maybe some of the best numbers of his career this year, and especially in the touchdown department. I saw you and I are in the same league this year, in our fantasy pros leagues together without the whole company, so and that's just the worst because you and I see the board so similarly and have the same opinion. I hope we draft back to back because I can only assume that's gonna be a good time. All right, Mason, I'll how about for you, who's your overrated quarterback? Who's your underrated quarterback this year? Yeah? Underrated someone I've been talking about for two years now. Like last year from a dynasty fantasy football context, I was just being obnoxious with it. I was out there tweeting stuff like just took at twenty three. Me, Trey Lance Kim is actually my dad, like I've loved. I believe he's also related to Derek Brown too. I think we talked. That's what I've had before, Yeah, because I know was going to talk about plans too, and he pivoted off of that to Car. But with Trey Lance here, there's no way he fails from a fantasy football standpoint, NFL, I have no idea. I can't evaluate these quarterbacks coming from college. I've always said, nobody in the fantasy football space can evaluate a quarterback coming from college and tell you who the next Joe Burrow is gonna be, versus who the next Sam Darnold is. It's a crapshoot. Well, we need to be listening to. Is draft capital, the team investment, rushing upside the situation they're stepping into. That's all week in control. And if we're looking at Trey Lance, the forty nine ers of Kyle Shanahan paid three first round picks to get him. He is stepping into a situation where he's a great offensive line, Deebo, Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Ayuk, a great coaching staff, and he possibly has the most rushing upside outside of any quarterback not named Lamar Jackson. Jalen Hurts all in on Trey Lance, Like even if he's a bad quarterback like Jalen Hurts wasn't any good last year, Jalen Hurts had like six weeks with over two hundred passing yards, but he still is a mid quarterback one in fantasy. Yeah, I'm looking at the same thing with Trey Lance. Here going is the Quarterback thirteen and high stakes leagues. If anything, Lance has maybe gone a little out of control because in high stakes leagues you actually have Trey Lance going before I mean in a two hundred five dollars jot those in last night he went before Kyler Murray, which was a little interesting to see. But if you're going to get him into casual format like Quarterback thirteen, that's a no brainer. I look an NFC, I understand why that would be inverted. I think you swing for the fences in those kind of formats. So who's your overrated guy quarterback? Then overrated guy. I had to pick someone that I felt like was going top ten because once we get down to the people at the end of the list, unless you're playing in a super flux league. Nobody's drafting him anyway. So I just went with Joe Burrow, Like, in reality, the Joe Burrow ADP isn't that bad. He's going right between Kyler Marie and Jalen Hurts. And essentially what I was looking up with Burrows said, Okay, well, if it's a four point passing touchdown league where you know, we know he doesn't have the rushing upside, just based from how Fantasy football points I scored, we probably have to rank him behind Jalen Hurts and Trey Lance, even if he's a significantly better real life NFL quarterback. But in reality, is ADPs not that bad? I just had to pick someone, all right, real quick, here, let's do some tight ends and then we'll hit the mailbag and we'll get out of here. So Fitz, give me your over and underrated tight ends for twenty twenty two. A Hunter Henry is a tight end nineteen right now, and he's just I don't think he's ever finished that low in a full, non injured season, and I think he's still basically in line to be a big part of the target tree for the Patriots. So I mean, that's kind of an easy one. Like I Mason sort of pointed this out with the quarterbacks, Like I think quarterback and tight end ADP is pretty pretty spot on. It's hard to find like screaming undervalued, overvalued guys there. So you know, I'm not like getting Hunter Henry in every draft, I think, but he's a guy who you can, you know, if you let the tight end position sort of get away from you, you can comfortably get in the later rounds and feel like you're not you know, going to be taking zero as a tight end every week. Yeah, and red zone opportunities. So who is the one that a little rank too high for your taste? Oh, Mike Kisiki. I mean, it's just the Dolphins are telling us this, And I think you have to be a blocker, like as a tight end to get regular reps in Mike McDaniel's offense. And like we're just gisick he's terrible at that part of it, and like he's head his moments as a pass catcher. But you know, there were also periods last year where his efficiency just plummeted. Like late in the season, I think he was like five point six yards per target. Or something for the last I think over the second half. So I just kind of want no part of him. I think people are going to remember some of the good games he's had and like not see the direction this is headed, all right, Mason, even if things are kind of appropriate in terms of the ADP for these guys, who do you still thinks it will overrated and underrated its tight end? Yeah, underrated. It's kind of funny. I'm choosing someone that's already being drafted as the tied in three overall. But Kyle Pitts can be a league winner this year. Like going back to what we were talking about with running backs, I think from a ross construction standpoint, it makes so much sense to just push up Kyle Pits at the beginning of the third round, take him before someone like and Ezekiel Elliott. I mean, we all know he was the best tight end prospect of all time coming out of Florida, A ridiculous athlete compared to like Fernan Davis. It was a monster with this production at twenty years old at Florida and then starting his season off at twenty finished at twenty one. He had the best rookie tight end season of all time and one of the best seasons ever from a pass catcher. Like if we look at players that were twenty one years old their rookie seasons that averaged six targets per game and at least sixty three receiving yards per game. You have Jamar Chase, he's pretty good. Justin Jefferson, he's all right, Keenan Allen, Mark Cooper, Jujie Smith, Schuster, Mike Evans, and Kyle freaking Pits. You get that player at tight end. I don't like Marcus Mariota, but how are you supposed to not take him here? Yeah, it's fair enough. Again, my concern continues to be the offensive line and Marcus Mariota, who hasn't played a full season pretty much ever. And then you're gonna go to Desmond Ritter, who I liked a lot in college. But still there's still feels like a lot of development there for Ritter to get to that point. That's my only concern. But I agree with sediment you had and sediment from this earlier week's show too, where it's just the right range to take Kyle Pitts. But who do you not want to take? What do you think is a little overraight right now at the tight end position. So I did a ton of research regarding the tight end position a few weeks back and looking at where true league winners play come from, and I found that you either need to be drafting an elite tight end at the beginning or waiting until the very end. Very similar we just discussed with Hunter Henry atte tight end nineteen. Like those tight ends get giving you the tight end eight finish, it's the tighten eight and the tight end twenties the same thing. It doesn't really matter. So paying up for a Dawson Knox right now, I don't get with Dawson Knox. He really does remind me of Robert Toney in last year, where he was a tight end in an elite level offense coming off the season where he scored a crap ton of touchdowns and we should project his touchdown rate to probably be higher than league average because yeah, he plays in Buffalo. But at the end of the day, touchdown volatility is going to be the number one thing that fluctuates season a season. And if we go through and look at the yards per route run as well as the overall air yards per game for Dawson Knox really not much has changed throughout his entire NFL career. Like if we look at his rookie season, of course I will say, you're not expecting anything from a rookie tight end. You're not expecting anything from a year two player either, So naturally you would assume that this is about when you get the breakout for Dawson Knox. But he had one point three yards per out run as a rookie, one point two the following season, one point three this past year. Air yards per game thirty two as a rookie thirty one two years ago, thirty four this last year. So Dawson Knox hasn't changed at all who he is. The only thing that changed is how many touchdowns he scored last season, which I think that comes down to earth a little bit. I think he is a high end tighten two, low end tighten one. In reality, if you have to take that player in the middle rounds, you're better off just going receiver. Just to recap two for everybody, Derek Carr, Trey Lance, underrated, Tannehill, Joe Burrow overrated, underrated tight ends hunter, Henry Kyle Pitts overrated, Mike Kisiki Dawson Knox. Let's dig into the listener mail back. Let's hit the listener mail bag real quick, and then we'll call it a day. From our discord against free to join Fantasy brows dot com slash Chat, but when you go to Offers Bros dot Com slash offers, you can get into the AMA channels. This one's from my AMA channel. It says from Bobby Kay, joe Pezapa, Hey, Joey Pay Number one, thanks for your company on the road, love the podcast. We love you, Bobby Kay, thanks for listening. And number two ten man two player keeper. Standard league need two of these three guys Pits at a third round cost, Jamar Chase at a sixth round cost, Jalen Waddle at eighth I can still get Pits in the third, but I won't get Waddle only eighth round. Thoughts. What do you guys think about this Standard League? You got Chase, Pits and Waddle. Which way would you go here? Mason Two guys, Yeah, you obviously gotta go with Chasing Waddle. I mean they're essentially free. You're getting Chase an elite lovers. We don't need to talk about that. It really comes down to waddle verse, Kyle Pitts. I mean, if you only keep two players, they're still gonna be viable options for you in the third round Like that is a pretty expensive pick to give up, and the eighth round, especially in a keeper league, doesn't really matter. I think you keep the receivers fits, same thing for you. Yeah, with the discount you're getting on those wide receivers, I wouldn't even argue with him taking pits in the second in a keeper league, keeper league, which pushes everyone else up. So wow, that's right, exactly exactly the point. So three for three, make it a sweet Bobby k. There you go, We answered your question. Mason Dodd fantastic work todays. Ois. You can follow him on Twitter at Mason Dodd f f N. And obviously you've got to go over to the YouTube channel Fantasy Flock Network. There's so much great content there. You bring the stats, you bring the energy, you bring the handsome doctor good looks from days of our lives, which is also something that you know we lack desperately here on this show, especially when I'm on it. So thanks again man for joining us. I know how busy you are this time of year, so great content as oways and just a reminder to everybody else out there too. 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Go drop a five star review on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your pods, we love to see a go to Fantacypros dot com slash reviews. I want to thank the sponsors of today's show, including Pristine Auction. Head over to Christine Auction dot com. That's pri sti ny Auction dot Com. Use that promo code Fantasy Pros to get ten dollars off your first piece of signed memorabilia. And of course, don't forget about Airmedcare Network. Visit Airmedcare Network dot com, forward slash Fantasy Pros and use the offercode Fantasy Pros. No matter where you are in the game of life, an Airbdcare Network membership is the protection no one should live without. That'll do it for us, But the story of the game goes on. From Mason Dodd and Pat fitz Morris, I'm Joeype. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros.