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00:00:12.423Welcome to Direction Correct, a freelance podcast with Colin Scott.
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00:00:15.983Today's guest, Matt Clancy, Research Fellow at Open Philanthropy.
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00:01:11.823All opinions are our own and do not reflect those of any other organization
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00:01:17.983there was a few students who like were like in it because they you know like
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00:01:21.703wanted to like do something with their career or whatever yeah whereas a lot
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00:01:23.163of people were like well you know
00:01:24.363 -->
00:01:27.363i'm just gonna go live off my daddy's money now
00:01:27.363 -->
00:01:31.303I'm just getting this like finance degree and i'm gonna go get like an immediate
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00:01:37.523golden tax high-paying job and then like go to the golf course and like start it all over again
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00:01:38.343Exactly.
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00:01:43.123Kids mad hey guys what's happening man you're looking good you're looking
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00:01:49.403Like haircut looking clipped up yeah are.
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00:01:52.523You a work-at-home guy like you did primarily out of the
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00:01:58.323House yeah i mean open phil is based in san francisco and i live in iowa so
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00:02:04.103i get in to the office a couple times a year but but that's it i mean i'm not
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00:02:10.523unusual open phil is like more than 50 probably people like me so iowans.
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00:02:13.003Is that 50 is that what you
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00:02:17.283Mean no i just mean remote i'm probably the only iowan yeah.
00:02:17.283 -->
00:02:18.743How's that culture clash
00:02:18.743 -->
00:02:23.943Yeah yeah No, it's not bad because it's like an international kind of,
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00:02:27.903or I don't know, national community, I guess, or work organization.
00:02:28.803 -->
00:02:31.803What is it? Just out of curiosity. Yeah.
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00:02:36.723Yeah. I mean, it's organization that gives away money is the bottom line.
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00:02:39.323Wow. Yeah. So open philanthropy.
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00:02:43.763And we have a bunch of programs in different areas. And I run the innovation
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00:02:45.903policy one. So I make grants in that area.
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00:02:52.143This is where I came across your name. I work with an economist here at my office,
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00:02:54.543and he's like, hey, you got to check out Matt Clance.
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00:02:58.863He's doing really cool research, essentially aggregating various...
00:02:58.863 -->
00:03:03.063I imagine you read a million articles a day, and you just get a really good
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00:03:05.023overview of the entire field.
00:03:05.583 -->
00:03:10.663And I found your sub stack, Everything Under the Sun, is just wildly impressed by it.
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00:03:14.883Well, thanks. Yeah. I mean, that is kind of the idea. So before I was at this
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00:03:18.063job, I was a professor of economics, Iowa State University.
00:03:19.443 -->
00:03:23.503And yeah that was kind of the idea is like there's like
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00:03:26.323like academia is not super well
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00:03:30.963set up for to like see the forest for the trees like uh you're kind of rewarded
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00:03:34.823for doing research which means you've got to like super specialize and like
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00:03:38.283be on this narrow slice the best in the world at it and then push it a little
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00:03:44.103bit further and so i thought maybe there was i plus i really like it you know,
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00:03:45.183to try and do something different.
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00:03:49.163And so created this sub stack, which kind of took off and was really popular.
00:03:49.403 -->
00:03:51.403And now it's a website too. And yeah,
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00:03:57.915I still spend, even though I'm not at a university, I negotiated when I joined,
00:03:58.015 -->
00:04:00.67530% of my time is on this project still.
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00:04:06.775So it's not just like a side hustle or something. It's something I spend significant time on.
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00:04:09.435Did you know Marcus Corday over at Iowa State?
00:04:09.875 -->
00:04:11.535No, I don't think so. What department was he in?
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00:04:14.995He's probably business. School of Business, Cole. Is that right?
00:04:15.495 -->
00:04:16.235I don't know.
00:04:16.875 -->
00:04:19.855Yeah, it's like across the street, but didn't connect.
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00:04:24.575I mean iowa state's a beautiful beautiful place like he came in here and like
00:04:24.575 -->
00:04:28.255he was essentially saying like 30 of all io research essentially is made up
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00:04:31.455like you can't trust it like really coming with a
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00:04:33.375Blowtorch of which kind of research.
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00:04:35.575Io psychology yeah
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00:04:40.195Well i don't know the field but there was this there's an article in the atlantic
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00:04:46.895right now about you know fallout from all this fraud and then this this researcher
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00:04:50.715who discovers that one of her co-authors is you know been.
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00:04:53.635Oh don't worry yeah we are all over
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00:05:00.775that okay i've been talking about it for probably a year now but i did see that
00:05:00.775 -->
00:05:04.455one in the atlantic and it's just like it just keep there they keep peeling
00:05:04.455 -->
00:05:09.255back the layers of the onion and it just keeps getting more juicy and it's just
00:05:09.255 -->
00:05:11.115like yeah everything is wrong with everything.
00:05:11.315 -->
00:05:15.315Yeah. I mean, the twist at the end, right? That the sort of main person there
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00:05:20.455who's leading the investigation is themselves possibly engaged in fraud.
00:05:22.415 -->
00:05:23.315We'll see. Yeah.
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00:05:26.640Well, it's like, at a certain point,
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00:05:32.940You know, is it systemic, right? Is like, is if everybody's doing it, you know, I don't know.
00:05:33.200 -->
00:05:39.740Like I had this conversation with some academics a few years ago and they were
00:05:39.740 -->
00:05:45.080just talking to me pretty openly about kind of how, like, cause they were just
00:05:45.080 -->
00:05:47.920trying to get published, right? Like their whole goal was to try to get published.
00:05:48.100 -->
00:05:51.700And they were just talking very openly about like
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00:05:54.480the incentives and how misaligned they were and
00:05:54.480 -->
00:05:57.540like how they were going to have to like kind of skirt the edges
00:05:57.540 -->
00:06:01.040of the rules to get this by and i was like what the
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00:06:04.020f are you guys talking about like yeah like i i
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00:06:07.740immediately lost respect for them the thing i realized is as i reflect on it
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00:06:12.280over time and as again a lot of these articles have come out is oh they're talking
00:06:12.280 -->
00:06:17.360about like this is just common practice like this isn't like and so ever since
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00:06:22.440that conversation i've you know scott's heard me talk about the open science movement and, and,
00:06:22.620 -->
00:06:27.480you know, how we need to do pre-publications and all the stuff that's been going on in that space.
00:06:27.480 -->
00:06:30.920And it's just like, I don't know, it seems endemic to a lot of the sciences
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00:06:32.320now. And that's really concerning.
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00:06:37.340Yeah. I mean, I actually looked into this a little bit recently and,
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00:06:42.720you know, people trying to estimate kind of how prevalent is fraud in different academic fields.
00:06:42.880 -->
00:06:45.540And there's kind of like two approaches people have taken, which is It's like
00:06:45.540 -->
00:06:50.900they look at a big set of papers and then they, in some disciplines,
00:06:51.240 -->
00:06:55.820like you can detect when people are manipulating the images in their,
00:06:55.820 -->
00:06:58.400like, you know, biology, they're sort of.
00:06:58.540 -->
00:07:00.700What are you talking about? Like the Stanford president, right?
00:07:00.940 -->
00:07:04.400Yeah. Yeah. So, so, you know, people like there's this amazing person,
00:07:04.580 -->
00:07:10.220Elizabeth Bick, who, who can, who is like just a gift for spotting sort of fraud in, in,
00:07:10.480 -->
00:07:15.820or like article images when they've been doctored or when they're being duplicated
00:07:15.820 -->
00:07:21.220and sort of rotated to disguise it and things like that. So she looked at like 20,000 papers.
00:07:21.920 -->
00:07:29.240And I think it was something like 2% of them had one of these kind of images in it.
00:07:30.380 -->
00:07:33.700And then there's surveys of academics like, have you ever done fraud?
00:07:34.060 -->
00:07:37.440And some of those find stuff in sort of the same ballpark where people say like,
00:07:37.520 -->
00:07:40.260well, 2% of people will say they've done something like that.
00:07:40.340 -->
00:07:43.060But you never know if that's like an under those could both be underestimates
00:07:43.060 -->
00:07:47.060right because it's just this one kind of fraud in one case it's like this images
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00:07:51.620that you detect and then in the other case it's anybody who feels comfortable
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00:07:54.140admitting in an anonymous survey that they did this so.
00:07:54.140 -->
00:07:57.400It takes a special kind of person to like fabricate their data and be like i'm
00:07:57.400 -->
00:08:03.180gonna do some sweet data viz here all right you're really gonna like showcase this yeah yeah
00:08:04.667 -->
00:08:09.147Well, Matt, coming back to your Substack for a second. So I publish every so
00:08:09.147 -->
00:08:11.127often an article or two on Substack.
00:08:11.227 -->
00:08:15.727And I looked through yours earlier today and I was like, oh, my God, I suck so bad.
00:08:16.767 -->
00:08:20.987Like the quality of your work is is just phenomenal.
00:08:21.307 -->
00:08:26.047And so I guess the question in the actually the most impressive part to me was
00:08:26.047 -->
00:08:31.387it covered such a variety of different topics that seem somewhat nonrelated.
00:08:31.647 -->
00:08:33.907And so I'm like, this guy just knows everything about everything.
00:08:33.907 -->
00:08:36.147And it is called everything under the sun.
00:08:36.307 -->
00:08:41.147I know no pun intended there, but how, how do you, this is a dumb question.
00:08:41.287 -->
00:08:45.087How do you do that? Like, how do you know everything under the sun and how is
00:08:45.087 -->
00:08:46.427it so technically oriented?
00:08:46.767 -->
00:08:50.887All right. So first correction, it's called new things under the sun.
00:08:51.047 -->
00:08:55.567It's like a pun on this old biblical verse. Like there is no new thing under the sun.
00:08:55.707 -->
00:08:59.167And so it's supposed to be about innovation and it's kind of like a cheeky thing
00:08:59.167 -->
00:09:03.287about these are new things under the sun and yeah
00:09:03.287 -->
00:09:06.127how does it so you know i i did
00:09:06.127 -->
00:09:09.087a phd in economics this was sort of my specialty the economics of
00:09:09.087 -->
00:09:12.287science and innovation i finished in 2015 i was
00:09:12.287 -->
00:09:18.387always really interested in like making connections between distant stuff so
00:09:18.387 -->
00:09:23.007one of my district like two of my dissertation papers were about that idea like
00:09:23.007 -->
00:09:24.907understanding innovation as when
00:09:24.907 -->
00:09:29.247you spot a connection between previously unconnected comments or concepts.
00:09:30.267 -->
00:09:34.547And so I kind of, I think for a long time, I just thought it was valuable to
00:09:34.547 -->
00:09:37.687read widely for that reason, because maybe you'll spot something.
00:09:38.667 -->
00:09:43.707And then when I started the Substack, you know, I had been reading a lot for
00:09:43.707 -->
00:09:45.627a long time and I had sort of taken notes on it.
00:09:46.770 -->
00:09:48.350And so I think that helped.
00:09:48.630 -->
00:09:53.990And as for why it jumps around, I think that that's to keep it interesting for
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00:09:55.530readers and for me, basically.
00:09:55.930 -->
00:10:00.830And also because I sort of have this view that maybe you'll see something valuable
00:10:00.830 -->
00:10:03.450if you have that approach that other people are missing.
00:10:03.770 -->
00:10:06.650I don't know if I have, but that was the theory anyway.
00:10:07.450 -->
00:10:12.170We're reaching a point where a lot of organizations are mandating return to office.
00:10:12.390 -->
00:10:16.590We had this four-year period where it's either, please don't come in.
00:10:16.590 -->
00:10:21.250All the way to like, hey, we're kind of encouraging to come in and now you definitely have to come in.
00:10:22.530 -->
00:10:27.870What does the research say about how that's going to impact innovation overall?
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00:10:32.010Yeah, so this is an area I was interested in for a long time,
00:10:32.130 -->
00:10:37.410even before COVID, because I live in Iowa, which is not like in the center of
00:10:37.410 -->
00:10:39.690innovation and frontier stuff.
00:10:39.810 -->
00:10:42.930So I was always interested in how connected can you be remotely?
00:10:42.930 -->
00:10:49.030And I think that there's kind of different factors that pull in different directions.
00:10:49.050 -->
00:10:52.110So I think everyone, it's easy to think of the things why it would be good to
00:10:52.110 -->
00:10:53.590have people return to the office.
00:10:54.490 -->
00:10:59.490You have these serendipitous water cooler conversations where two people make
00:10:59.490 -->
00:11:02.830these connections between ideas they didn't expect because one person in the
00:11:02.830 -->
00:11:04.730office knows something and another person doesn't.
00:11:05.910 -->
00:11:09.570And there is research kind of documenting stuff like that.
00:11:09.570 -->
00:11:14.330So, you know, they've done studies on academics, for example,
00:11:14.530 -->
00:11:19.270and when two academics collaborate, what's the probability that one of those
00:11:19.270 -->
00:11:22.730guys goes on to work on a new topic afterwards after their collaboration?
00:11:22.730 -->
00:11:24.470So maybe they learned something from their peer.
00:11:24.550 -->
00:11:28.050And that's more likely if they collaborate on an article and they're based in
00:11:28.050 -->
00:11:29.810the same place than if they're at distant places.
00:11:29.810 -->
00:11:36.330And there's other research about, you know, if I cite a paper that is kind of
00:11:36.330 -->
00:11:39.270a weird paper for me to cite, like it's not just standard,
00:11:39.850 -->
00:11:47.010you know, in my field, it's more likely that that paper is by somebody in my university.
00:11:47.970 -->
00:11:52.110And so that's one of the advantages of like bringing people into the office.
00:11:52.290 -->
00:11:54.990A second advantage is that it
00:11:54.990 -->
00:11:59.750maybe is easier to just work together on projects that are sort of like.
00:12:00.250 -->
00:12:01.710Like collaborative demand.
00:12:01.970 -->
00:12:07.230Exactly. Like whiteboard type stuff. I don't think, so I don't know that literature as well, but.
00:12:08.304 -->
00:12:13.224The kind of stuff that I've reviewing a lot of this emphasizes that in-person
00:12:13.224 -->
00:12:17.364is really good for introducing people to each other who don't know each other.
00:12:18.144 -->
00:12:25.024But then with modern technology, it's not as hard as it used to be to stay,
00:12:25.304 -->
00:12:26.524to maintain relationships with
00:12:26.524 -->
00:12:30.384people once you've had that kind of first connection, even at a distance.
00:12:30.384 -->
00:12:37.324So it's not easy to see among people who already know each other that their
00:12:37.324 -->
00:12:42.364ability to collaborate effectively declines noticeably at a distance.
00:12:43.904 -->
00:12:49.044So I think that's the rub, right? Where people say like, they get shit mad.
00:12:49.224 -->
00:12:52.004Like, I am fine working at home. I know all these people.
00:12:52.224 -->
00:12:56.104I can, you know, just zoom them in. I don't have to like put on pants today.
00:12:56.684 -->
00:12:59.704And like, you know, they essentially say like, I don't need to come into the
00:12:59.704 -->
00:13:03.464office. But there are subtle differences in how people interact.
00:13:04.424 -->
00:13:08.704Yeah. I mean, I think that you certainly, if you're going to have everybody
00:13:08.704 -->
00:13:15.984work from home, you certainly want to do something to make those kind of connections
00:13:15.984 -->
00:13:17.484that would happen in the office happen.
00:13:17.664 -->
00:13:23.944You don't want to just like let everybody's network ossify and nobody's making
00:13:23.944 -->
00:13:25.324new connections anymore. And then
00:13:25.324 -->
00:13:29.464as people leave, your network sort of actually starts to shrink maybe.
00:13:30.784 -->
00:13:33.824Siloed exactly and i think that covid showed
00:13:33.824 -->
00:13:37.244that those kind of concerns were real
00:13:37.244 -->
00:13:40.404like there was a famous study of sort of microsoft employees
00:13:40.404 -->
00:13:43.984and when they went remotely you know they they just were much more likely to
00:13:43.984 -->
00:13:48.944communicate with people they already knew and so forth so you know our org is
00:13:48.944 -->
00:13:53.384mostly remote and we have like four weeks a year that are coordinated for people
00:13:53.384 -->
00:13:59.064to come into the office and try to all be there at the same time so that it's it's like a way to you.
00:13:59.064 -->
00:14:02.984Know to be intentional about collaborating, get together.
00:14:03.604 -->
00:14:06.784But as I was saying, there's actually like, so there's, there's factors that
00:14:06.784 -->
00:14:10.104make it valuable to be in person. And then there's other factors that make it
00:14:10.104 -->
00:14:13.844valuable to be able to work remotely. And I think the chief one is just about recruiting.
00:14:15.364 -->
00:14:19.884So if you have to recruit locally, you know, you, you are limited to who's in
00:14:19.884 -->
00:14:23.664your local labor market and, or you have to entice somebody to move.
00:14:24.424 -->
00:14:27.744And if you are able to hire remotely you
00:14:27.744 -->
00:14:30.544can hire people who are the
00:14:30.544 -->
00:14:33.544best at that position in the world and and it's
00:14:33.544 -->
00:14:36.464it's a trade-off right like maybe they're 90 as effective as
00:14:36.464 -->
00:14:39.864if they're in the office but if they're you know 20 better
00:14:39.864 -->
00:14:43.944then maybe you will take that trade and it's
00:14:43.944 -->
00:14:47.444kind of interesting like academia and in
00:14:47.444 -->
00:14:50.484innovation in general so among academics and inventors
00:14:50.484 -->
00:14:56.664the share of papers or patents that are developed by geographically distributed
00:14:56.664 -->
00:15:02.624teams is just like continually marching up and i think that's all about this
00:15:02.624 -->
00:15:06.344we need the specialist guy who knows about this one niche thing and he doesn't
00:15:06.344 -->
00:15:07.684work here so we're going to,
00:15:08.592 -->
00:15:13.872fly out there and have a weekend retreat or, and then keep up with zoom and stuff like that.
00:15:14.392 -->
00:15:18.612One of the things I think that you pointed out about, you know,
00:15:18.712 -->
00:15:24.252remote versus moving people cross country is I think one of the things that
00:15:24.252 -->
00:15:27.632was lost during COVID is prior to COVID times,
00:15:28.252 -->
00:15:32.652organizations spent hefty sums of money moving people around or doing,
00:15:32.652 -->
00:15:36.452you know, offsites or what have you to make sure that you had the people that
00:15:36.452 -->
00:15:40.312you want to be in a physical location in the physical location with one another.
00:15:41.072 -->
00:15:43.992And then they didn't have to pay for that kind of stuff for like two years.
00:15:44.572 -->
00:15:47.752And so that got taken as a line item out of their budgets.
00:15:48.332 -->
00:15:51.392But then they came on the other side. Well, it's like, we want to have all the
00:15:51.392 -->
00:15:54.892same collaboration in person time, but we're just not going to pay you to move cross country.
00:15:54.992 -->
00:15:57.232We're not going to pay for those off sites anymore.
00:15:58.072 -->
00:15:59.972And it's like, well, that's not going to work.
00:16:00.992 -->
00:16:08.132And so it's, I think the, the, the idea has reverted back to the mean.
00:16:08.352 -->
00:16:12.352But the budget to do so hasn't gone along correspondingly.
00:16:12.452 -->
00:16:17.832And I think that is a healthy tension as well as just the in-person remote tension
00:16:17.832 -->
00:16:21.052that's going on at the same time. I don't know. Are you seeing that Matt at all?
00:16:22.152 -->
00:16:25.692That's tough for me to like, I haven't seen papers, for example,
00:16:26.272 -->
00:16:29.032documenting or like looking into it. Not that it doesn't happen.
00:16:29.192 -->
00:16:31.712It's, it's not like they find, they don't find that when they look,
00:16:31.712 -->
00:16:35.572it's just, I haven't seen papers that have looked at that particular question.
00:16:35.572 -->
00:16:38.672And then in my personal experience, you
00:16:38.672 -->
00:16:42.132know open fill is generous in helping people travel to
00:16:42.132 -->
00:16:45.272the weekly reports i know they take
00:16:45.272 -->
00:16:49.232care of us but yeah i think the like
00:16:49.232 -->
00:16:53.312travel is is an interesting thing that often i feel like it's funny how it kind
00:16:53.312 -->
00:16:56.772of got left out of the discussion i i think of the value of being in the office
00:16:56.772 -->
00:17:00.452is like well you might be more productive but there's also like you know you
00:17:00.452 -->
00:17:04.872might spend an extra it's kind of like extending your work day by an extra however
00:17:04.872 -->
00:17:08.372long you commute which could be, you know, an hour a day for people.
00:17:08.812 -->
00:17:13.792And that sort of never counted in these papers as like a cost of,
00:17:14.813 -->
00:17:17.973It's the productivity while you're in the office. And at the time that you're
00:17:17.973 -->
00:17:21.873not in the office, it doesn't exist in some sense.
00:17:22.093 -->
00:17:23.993We definitely hear this. That's
00:17:23.993 -->
00:17:27.353one of the main complaints. Got you to get up earlier. Got to shower.
00:17:28.053 -->
00:17:32.473Right. You got to come home. But I guess the flip side is that when you leave
00:17:32.473 -->
00:17:35.293the office, your day is kind of done at that point, right?
00:17:35.633 -->
00:17:40.653There's no just kind of like this weird sort of fringe bleed into the evening sort of situation.
00:17:40.653 -->
00:17:45.353Yeah. And I think in the early days of COVID,
00:17:45.633 -->
00:17:49.453when everyone was suddenly trying remote work for the first time,
00:17:49.593 -->
00:17:53.993or at least a lot of people were, this was like a real focus of studies just
00:17:53.993 -->
00:17:59.053sort of documenting this bleed out and the shifting of when people would work.
00:17:59.633 -->
00:18:02.673And you know it can be can have advantages
00:18:02.673 -->
00:18:05.913like i think there's some study i don't remember the name of it about like the
00:18:05.913 -->
00:18:10.313number of people playing golf during the workday went up dramatically during
00:18:10.313 -->
00:18:13.793covid you know but then some of these other studies document people working
00:18:13.793 -->
00:18:17.153like after eight o'clock for an hour and answering emails and things like that
00:18:17.153 -->
00:18:22.153so maybe they're shifting time or or maybe they're taking advantage of a difficulty
00:18:22.153 -->
00:18:25.253being held accountable in some in some workplaces.
00:18:25.253 -->
00:18:28.313I'm gonna blame cole cole's the one keeping the golf
00:18:30.233 -->
00:18:32.933Well it was like it became impossible to get
00:18:32.933 -->
00:18:36.073a tea time after because everybody was
00:18:36.073 -->
00:18:39.693out there doing i'm like do you guys work like what it actually created a lot
00:18:39.693 -->
00:18:45.173of personal resentment for me is how many people you know were just like in
00:18:45.173 -->
00:18:48.453the middle of the day just out there got like what do you do you're in your
00:18:48.453 -->
00:18:53.073jobs paying you right like i i don't know that that really kind of chafed me a little
00:18:53.073 -->
00:18:53.313Bit.
00:18:53.573 -->
00:18:58.693But I wanted to come back, you know, Matt, you're doing a lot of research on innovation.
00:18:58.873 -->
00:19:01.853Like that, that's clearly kind of a theme in terms of what you're doing.
00:19:02.053 -->
00:19:07.073And we've been talking a lot about AI and what its impacts are going to be.
00:19:07.533 -->
00:19:14.353Can AI innovate things on its own without pre-human based direction,
00:19:14.513 -->
00:19:18.133you know, or how soon will that happen? Or just what are your thoughts in general?
00:19:19.273 -->
00:19:23.853Yeah, I think it's not there yet where it can do interesting,
00:19:24.113 -->
00:19:27.213important stuff with no human in the loop, I would say.
00:19:29.413 -->
00:19:33.113It's really interesting. So this is an area that's moving so fast that I feel
00:19:33.113 -->
00:19:38.073like it's kind of breaking our traditional research ecosystem where economists
00:19:38.073 -->
00:19:44.173study something and it takes a year or two to study it, and then they write the paper.
00:19:44.313 -->
00:19:48.193And so it's like four or five years behind when the events happened that you
00:19:48.193 -->
00:19:49.993sort of see the paper in a journal.
00:19:51.173 -->
00:19:56.873And reading about four or five years ago is like before GPT-3, I think, right?
00:19:57.013 -->
00:20:00.033Like this is back when these AIs could do very little.
00:20:00.213 -->
00:20:05.873And so that's been a challenge, I think, is like assessing how good this stuff
00:20:05.873 -->
00:20:09.853is given that just in the last two years, it's become a lot more capable. Yeah.
00:20:10.727 -->
00:20:13.607One really nice study about this that everyone's been talking about in
00:20:13.607 -->
00:20:16.707the last couple weeks is about a kind of
00:20:16.707 -->
00:20:19.887a large material company that develops like complex materials
00:20:19.887 -->
00:20:23.027and they they did like a nice randomized control trial internally
00:20:23.027 -->
00:20:27.367in their org where they gave some of their teams access to a ai to help them
00:20:27.367 -->
00:20:32.207design new materials and others didn't and it seems like it really helped like
00:20:32.207 -->
00:20:38.387the teams that had access produced like 40 more sort of new materials discovered
00:20:38.387 -->
00:20:40.127They're filing patents for them.
00:20:40.327 -->
00:20:45.267They're turning them into products, things like that. But the humans stayed in the loop.
00:20:45.467 -->
00:20:48.447And one thing that's really neat about the study is they have,
00:20:48.587 -->
00:20:52.547in this company, people kept really close logs on how they use their time.
00:20:52.767 -->
00:20:56.087And so you can kind of see how their time shifted.
00:20:56.267 -->
00:21:00.627And it went from, they basically handed off all of the sort of ideation to the
00:21:00.627 -->
00:21:04.467machines and took on a lot bigger role in like evaluation.
00:21:04.467 -->
00:21:11.267So the machines, this is a 2022 era AI, would spit out a bunch of sort of ideas
00:21:11.267 -->
00:21:16.947for here's how you could organize molecules to have a structure that has these kinds of properties.
00:21:16.947 -->
00:21:21.427And then they would evaluate what seemed feasible and what didn't because the
00:21:21.427 -->
00:21:24.027AI doesn't actually have, it's sort of pattern matching.
00:21:24.067 -->
00:21:29.587It doesn't necessarily have a deep understanding of physical laws and so forth. So that's one example.
00:21:30.127 -->
00:21:33.867I worry about just like human brain rot from this sort of stuff.
00:21:33.867 -->
00:21:40.227Like i i catch myself doing the same thing like my best friend is my gpt right
00:21:40.227 -->
00:21:44.667it's my favorite co-worker as it were right and like i i find myself doing the
00:21:44.667 -->
00:21:48.687same thing like oh you you come up with ideas and i will vet them and then you
00:21:48.687 -->
00:21:50.707become like a essentially a middle manager at some point
00:21:50.707 -->
00:21:57.767No i think this is actually going to be like the next big thing people worry about in this yeah.
00:21:57.767 -->
00:21:59.167Absolutely like
00:21:59.167 -->
00:22:04.167Even in this paper that i'm talking about they find that you know some people
00:22:04.167 -->
00:22:08.767are really good at evaluating the ideas of the AI and other people are not.
00:22:09.407 -->
00:22:13.247And it's sort of my reading of it is the people who are really good at evaluating
00:22:13.247 -->
00:22:16.947the ideas are the people who had experience previously doing what the AI did.
00:22:17.727 -->
00:22:22.127And, you know, they, they kind of like, they used to come up with brainstorm
00:22:22.127 -->
00:22:25.827ideas and they're just, they have good intuitions for what's a good idea versus
00:22:25.827 -->
00:22:29.647a bad one, but they probably developed all that intuition through you're doing
00:22:29.647 -->
00:22:31.687the work that the AI is now doing.
00:22:32.167 -->
00:22:36.887And you can see the same thing at a lot more like mundane level at school, right?
00:22:37.007 -->
00:22:42.627Like if a GPT can write your essay, do you really learn how to write,
00:22:42.867 -->
00:22:47.767structure your arguments, think carefully, all that stuff. And yeah.
00:22:47.927 -->
00:22:51.527It's like driving like an automatic car. Like I know very few people that can
00:22:51.527 -->
00:22:53.467drive in manual transmission anymore.
00:22:53.787 -->
00:22:58.567Like why would you, right? Like everything, it's probably hard to get a manual transmission.
00:22:59.600 -->
00:23:01.060But it's tricky because like,
00:23:01.200 -->
00:23:06.780In some sense, I don't know how to drive a manual transmission and it hasn't held me back in life.
00:23:07.140 -->
00:23:09.320Exactly, exactly. No need.
00:23:09.520 -->
00:23:16.080But if I'm evaluating the output of a model and having done that work myself,
00:23:16.280 -->
00:23:17.720it makes me a very good evaluator.
00:23:17.980 -->
00:23:21.780Then, you know, you worry about people who don't have that experience.
00:23:21.780 -->
00:23:25.240They don't have any training of going through what it's like to write an essay
00:23:25.240 -->
00:23:27.920yourself and developing taste maybe or so on.
00:23:28.300 -->
00:23:31.840And I was talking to some economists, too, about writing theory papers now.
00:23:32.280 -->
00:23:38.180You can ask the latest models to do a lot of the math, and it's kind of like
00:23:38.180 -->
00:23:39.340a superpowered calculator.
00:23:39.500 -->
00:23:43.020And I guess people have always been worried about calculators eroding your skills.
00:23:43.020 -->
00:23:47.160But it's the kind of thing where like he they would say, I would now prefer
00:23:47.160 -->
00:23:52.660to work with this than a grad student to to do certain kinds of proofs and things.
00:23:52.960 -->
00:23:56.420And, you know, where does the grad student then get the sort of mentorship and
00:23:56.420 -->
00:23:59.340experience if people are not interested in working with them?
00:24:00.060 -->
00:24:03.200We've seen some other like really interesting research essentially like
00:24:03.200 -->
00:24:05.960high skilled worker high skilled workers and low skilled
00:24:05.960 -->
00:24:10.280workers are really effective at using sort of like these augmented assistants
00:24:10.280 -->
00:24:15.020but it's like those intermediate level people with like sort of like modest
00:24:15.020 -->
00:24:19.940skills that are perhaps too too much hubris to use you know these additional
00:24:19.940 -->
00:24:25.320devices they really fail right they don't get an performance boost at all that's
00:24:25.320 -->
00:24:29.840Interesting i Yeah, I would imagine it's sort of like if you're middle skill,
00:24:30.340 -->
00:24:36.560then you're like kind of in the sweet spot where, you know, like an AI can do what you do pretty well.
00:24:36.920 -->
00:24:39.640Maybe you're thinking differently in terms of augmenting me.
00:24:39.700 -->
00:24:41.100And I'm thinking more of like it replacing.
00:24:41.640 -->
00:24:44.500I'm thinking if you're middle skill, it's going to boost you up.
00:24:44.600 -->
00:24:47.880Just like an automatic transmission can make you a better driver. Got it.
00:24:48.380 -->
00:24:50.440I'm feeling very middle skilled right now.
00:24:53.460 -->
00:24:57.200Yeah. Sweet spot. I think that different papers have found different things on this.
00:24:59.200 -->
00:25:02.840I've definitely seen the papers you're talking about where middle or lower skilled
00:25:02.840 -->
00:25:06.200people benefit a lot from these things, but people who are the best,
00:25:06.240 -->
00:25:10.180they can't learn anything from how to write better code, for example,
00:25:10.400 -->
00:25:12.860from an LLM that's really good at coding.
00:25:13.788 -->
00:25:18.128Then I've also seen papers like this, this one about the material science company,
00:25:18.248 -->
00:25:21.828where it was sort of the people who are already best at their jobs,
00:25:21.828 -->
00:25:26.148had their performance boosted by this because of this ability to evaluate the
00:25:26.148 -->
00:25:30.448AI and work complementary with it was disproportionately favored by them.
00:25:30.448 -->
00:25:35.788So there's a guy named Balaji Srinivasan who popularized this concept of the
00:25:35.788 -->
00:25:37.528internet just creates variants.
00:25:38.508 -->
00:25:45.128And so more people might become idiots, but some people become superhuman intelligent
00:25:45.128 -->
00:25:47.068because of the variants that's created.
00:25:47.348 -->
00:25:51.628And I think AI is just a continuation of that. It's going to create even more
00:25:51.628 -->
00:25:56.208variants where some people, you always heard about the 10x engineer and the 100x engineer.
00:25:56.428 -->
00:25:59.628Maybe it's going to create the 1000x or the millionx engineer.
00:25:59.628 -->
00:26:05.708But also it might create it to where, you know, 99.9% of people don't know how to write.
00:26:07.248 -->
00:26:11.748Like, and that could be, you know, the variance that's created from this.
00:26:11.848 -->
00:26:17.988And, and I think the bigger question that we're really asking is what is lost in that scenario?
00:26:18.168 -->
00:26:22.248Like, if you don't know how to drive an auto or a standard, you know,
00:26:22.408 -->
00:26:26.768shifting car anymore, what is lost? If, you know, if the United States doesn't
00:26:26.768 -->
00:26:30.968know how to manufacture things anymore, because all the manufacturing is overseas, what is lost?
00:26:31.208 -->
00:26:33.928You know, if you don't, kids don't know how to write an essay anymore,
00:26:33.928 -->
00:26:37.468what is actually lost from that? If they can just type in a few prompts and
00:26:37.468 -->
00:26:38.868then that writes the perfect essay.
00:26:39.188 -->
00:26:41.128Like what is lost in this scenario?
00:26:41.928 -->
00:26:46.588Yeah, I think it's, it becomes like, are those things that are lost like manual
00:26:46.588 -->
00:26:49.028transmission or are they these kind of,
00:26:49.228 -->
00:26:52.228I think the danger zone is that they're skills that are valuable,
00:26:52.228 -->
00:26:56.248but we're used to we're used
00:26:56.248 -->
00:26:59.288to living in a world where being only okay at
00:26:59.288 -->
00:27:02.208them still produced enough value
00:27:02.208 -->
00:27:05.188to pay you to do them and then you were that gave
00:27:05.188 -->
00:27:09.688you an opportunity to develop those skills like you know if you're an artist
00:27:09.688 -->
00:27:14.028and you're competing with and you're just starting out it'd be really hard to
00:27:14.028 -->
00:27:18.888compete and sell your your paintings i guess or your your images when people
00:27:18.888 -->
00:27:22.988People can just use a model to make images that are better than you,
00:27:23.148 -->
00:27:26.648but that's not going to create a career path that allows you to develop your
00:27:26.648 -->
00:27:29.708skill and then become eventually better perhaps than these things.
00:27:29.848 -->
00:27:36.048So I think that's the danger is things that are on this path where we need to have a,
00:27:36.798 -->
00:27:39.618you need to have like a period of okay is good
00:27:39.618 -->
00:27:42.338enough to to keep doing it like you can support that
00:27:42.338 -->
00:27:48.518career and you know we have things like high schools where we train people to
00:27:48.518 -->
00:27:52.838write things that are not actually good enough to do economic value like people
00:27:52.838 -->
00:27:56.598are not paying high schoolers for their essays but maybe we'll have to have
00:27:56.598 -->
00:27:59.698that kind of training system for just way more things and,
00:28:00.238 -->
00:28:03.218but maybe that doesn't maybe the economics of that don't work out so i don't
00:28:03.218 -->
00:28:04.798know it's an interesting i think.
00:28:04.798 -->
00:28:07.578You you alluded to it like on one hand you could
00:28:07.578 -->
00:28:10.358have like someone produce a an essay in
00:28:10.358 -->
00:28:15.278chad gbt but then have chad gbt you read it back to you like and summarize that
00:28:15.278 -->
00:28:19.958essay there's no real gain there but there's other things that go along with
00:28:19.958 -->
00:28:24.058learning how to construct an argument and like lay out your plan etc it's really
00:28:24.058 -->
00:28:28.918just like critical thinking and if like that gets eroded we're real real trouble
00:28:28.918 -->
00:28:35.278Yeah i mean people have this reminds me of like the debate about when we moved
00:28:35.278 -->
00:28:40.438to automation of manufacturing instead of having these artisanal people who
00:28:40.438 -->
00:28:47.378had these skill sets to make furniture that had features that you don't see
00:28:47.378 -->
00:28:48.838in mass produced furniture.
00:28:49.038 -->
00:28:53.458And the mass produced furniture is cheaper, but it's not as high quality perhaps along some dimensions.
00:28:53.878 -->
00:29:01.078And in some sense, yeah, there's kind of a substitution of like high quality
00:29:01.078 -->
00:29:06.358furniture is maybe still available to a very small set of people who pay a high premium for it.
00:29:06.478 -->
00:29:10.318But most people have access to more furniture, but it's just not as good.
00:29:10.758 -->
00:29:15.078That's like the whole premise of higher variance. You have a small number that
00:29:15.078 -->
00:29:19.258have extremely high quality and then a long tail of just a bunch of shitty Ikea
00:29:19.258 -->
00:29:21.398furniture that no one ever wanted.
00:29:23.138 -->
00:29:24.358Shout out to Ikea.
00:29:24.518 -->
00:29:25.398It's not so bad.
00:29:26.498 -->
00:29:31.518Sorry, Ikea. My apologies. Well, do you want to do a little bit of confusion metrics, Matt?
00:29:32.278 -->
00:29:33.778It's happy to learn what it is.
00:29:35.016 -->
00:29:36.216The Confusion Matrix.
00:29:36.796 -->
00:29:40.896Real quick, we wanted to say thanks again to OneModel, the AI and people analytics
00:29:40.896 -->
00:29:44.656pioneer for sponsoring the episode. And now back to the Confusion Matrix.
00:29:46.216 -->
00:29:50.736Both of you have just like killer office set up. So I need to like emulate you guys.
00:29:52.016 -->
00:29:53.536Well, nothing's stopping you.
00:29:55.176 -->
00:30:00.296I have terrible internet at the house. There is like a technical tax that needs
00:30:00.296 -->
00:30:01.556to be played. Hey, brother.
00:30:02.156 -->
00:30:07.196So when this pod is released, we're going to be coming up on the Christmas holidays.
00:30:07.496 -->
00:30:10.416Are you a Christmas celebrator, Matt? I am.
00:30:11.076 -->
00:30:14.316Okay. Okay. Do you love it? You get way into it?
00:30:15.116 -->
00:30:19.936I think we don't put big lights up in the house, but we obviously have a tree
00:30:19.936 -->
00:30:23.896and I have three kids and they love Christmas and all that stuff.
00:30:24.416 -->
00:30:27.256Magical. I bet I was actually magical at christmas time
00:30:27.256 -->
00:30:30.456it can be yeah i can get nice snow all right
00:30:30.456 -->
00:30:33.276so i have five questions for you loosely based on
00:30:33.276 -->
00:30:36.316the big five personality inventory all about
00:30:36.316 -->
00:30:40.376christmas it's just a chance to talk and get to know you all right all right
00:30:40.376 -->
00:30:46.936play along if you want to guess the construct of interest as well as well uh
00:30:46.936 -->
00:30:54.856okay matt uh are you into giving exotic gifts like you know like atypical gifts to other folks?
00:30:55.556 -->
00:31:01.596I think if you could think of something that's atypical, I'd be excited about it, but it's hard work.
00:31:01.816 -->
00:31:08.196And I don't think I do enough work to deliver on a lot of people.
00:31:08.356 -->
00:31:10.556But when you can do it, it's great.
00:31:11.196 -->
00:31:15.316It is really wild. Essentially, we're just sending Amazon gifts to each other.
00:31:15.556 -->
00:31:19.236At some point, what do you want from Amazon? I love that
00:31:19.236 -->
00:31:23.396The question was about openness to experience, but it became about conscientiousness.
00:31:24.616 -->
00:31:29.336It's a little hard i mean i don't know but i i know scott that you love giving
00:31:29.336 -->
00:31:31.676exotic gifts so you're definitely high in that
00:31:33.561 -->
00:31:38.301I used to make a music playlist for people in my family, and I would take a
00:31:38.301 -->
00:31:43.541lot of pride into finding stuff that I didn't think they would know in that, but that got hard, too.
00:31:44.401 -->
00:31:49.901Give us some hipster jams, some under-the-ground radar that you love.
00:31:50.681 -->
00:31:54.001It's been a long time since I've done it, or at least a few years.
00:31:54.361 -->
00:32:01.421What are some hipster jams that they would like? around there jeez i don't even know like.
00:32:01.421 -->
00:32:03.981I'm putting you on the spot i apologize here
00:32:03.981 -->
00:32:06.641I know you can watch me scroll through my phone or something.
00:32:06.641 -->
00:32:09.361One of my favorite jokes is like if
00:32:09.361 -->
00:32:12.101you're driving on the highway like there's a car on the on fire on the
00:32:12.101 -->
00:32:16.901side of the road be like dude they listen to my mixtape finally it's like a
00:32:16.901 -->
00:32:23.021car got on fire all right all right uh when you're like giving gifts assuming
00:32:23.021 -->
00:32:27.281that you wrap them or do you make sure it's like super precise and like it looks
00:32:27.281 -->
00:32:31.301like super good or is it just kind of like a we'll throw it in a bag i'm
00:32:31.301 -->
00:32:36.861A rapper i won't put i mean i'll use bags occasionally but i think most things i wrap,
00:32:38.321 -->
00:32:42.501santa wraps presents at our house and and they have to have a certain level
00:32:42.501 -->
00:32:46.561of quality for that i think you know you can't get away with sloppy work there.
00:32:46.561 -->
00:32:49.841I mean both of y'all have kids at the house are y'all elf on the shelf people
00:32:49.841 -->
00:32:52.361like like terrorize the kids for a little while no
00:32:52.361 -->
00:32:55.921I do not believe in the surveillance state that we're trying to condone.
00:32:57.721 -->
00:33:02.421Same, same. Also, it's one of those things where it's a lot of work and I didn't
00:33:02.421 -->
00:33:05.641grow up with it. And so it's sort of unnatural and I don't need to do it, I guess.
00:33:06.221 -->
00:33:10.461What about you, Cole? Are you a tight gift guy? Or just leave that up to Santa.
00:33:10.681 -->
00:33:13.081Someone else outsource it. You're going to learn
00:33:13.081 -->
00:33:17.501How much of a shitty person I am. There's this answer. I literally give my spouse
00:33:17.501 -->
00:33:20.281money to buy gifts for everybody, including themselves.
00:33:20.501 -->
00:33:25.621I don't do any of this stuff. Like I'm just gift giving in any context. I don't like birthdays.
00:33:25.881 -->
00:33:29.661Don't like, I like, I don't mind like the principle behind it.
00:33:29.721 -->
00:33:32.421Like I love other people receiving things that I give.
00:33:32.621 -->
00:33:36.181I just, the pro the process of it, I hate. Hmm.
00:33:37.375 -->
00:33:42.335Oh, are y'all into like big get togethers like Home Alone?
00:33:42.535 -->
00:33:46.335There's like 12 people in the house. That's how they lost Kevin or like smaller
00:33:46.335 -->
00:33:50.475sort of like I can't think of a pop culture, small get together,
00:33:50.735 -->
00:33:53.035Tiny Tim and his little family getting together.
00:33:53.635 -->
00:33:57.055I like a big get together. That's how I grew up. Go over to grandma's house
00:33:57.055 -->
00:34:01.535and, you know, there'd be so many people by the end when people started getting
00:34:01.535 -->
00:34:04.015married and have kids of their own that people were like worried about the structural
00:34:04.015 -->
00:34:05.895integrity of like the floors.
00:34:06.415 -->
00:34:07.955Yeah, you have branch-offs.
00:34:07.975 -->
00:34:08.795Like where the
00:34:08.795 -->
00:34:12.795One big thing became smaller things just out of necessity. I totally agree,
00:34:12.875 -->
00:34:14.135Matt. I love that kind of stuff.
00:34:14.715 -->
00:34:18.495I wish I grew up in this sort of situation. I have a very small family,
00:34:18.495 -->
00:34:24.975and it's so foreign to me to see 45 people get together on the Hallmark Channel.
00:34:25.415 -->
00:34:31.015I mean, 45 people, yeah, that was me getting together. Christmas Eve every year.
00:34:31.535 -->
00:34:33.515That's a lot of gifts. That's a lot of gifts.
00:34:33.515 -->
00:34:37.815So we did a, we did like a kind of a white elephant gift thing where everybody
00:34:37.815 -->
00:34:42.495brings one gift for the pool and then there's a competition over them.
00:34:42.915 -->
00:34:45.475You're like, here's my, here's my mixtape. Exactly.
00:34:46.315 -->
00:34:51.175And if it's like every Hallmark movie, the, the, you know, the lonely single
00:34:51.175 -->
00:34:53.355girl comes back for Christmas with her family.
00:34:53.575 -->
00:34:56.915And then the guy who wasn't in during high school,
00:34:57.155 -->
00:35:02.295who's recently widowed and now has pursued an interest in her for the first
00:35:02.295 -->
00:35:06.695time and it's about her new candle making business and how he really has found
00:35:06.695 -->
00:35:12.075the candle making to be enlightening they fall in love the end there you go I ruined it for you
00:35:12.855 -->
00:35:18.395Shout out to Holiday in Handcuffs 2009 Melissa Joan Hart and AC Slater from
00:35:18.395 -->
00:35:24.715Saved by the Bell that's some solid stuff baby Holiday in Handcuffs it's a must see
00:35:26.695 -->
00:35:29.775we probably already covered this Like, do you worry about the perfect gift?
00:35:30.235 -->
00:35:31.875Trying to get like, do you wrap yourself up in knots?
00:35:33.396 -->
00:35:37.476I mean, I think that there's two things.
00:35:37.616 -->
00:35:42.356There's my spouse and where we both have enough, we're doing well enough that
00:35:42.356 -->
00:35:47.216if you really want something at any point in the year, you probably can get it.
00:35:47.316 -->
00:35:51.896And if you don't get it because it's expensive and then it's hard to make the
00:35:51.896 -->
00:35:55.656unilateral Christmas decision, like we're spending our money on this now for you.
00:35:56.196 -->
00:35:57.576And then there's the kids where
00:35:57.576 -->
00:36:01.456they are in the opposite situation where they're very much on the mercy.
00:36:01.456 -->
00:36:05.656They can't afford to get the things they really want and so for them we want
00:36:05.656 -->
00:36:11.136to I think we do a pretty good job but it's a little bit of like they give us a list of things,
00:36:12.556 -->
00:36:17.576there's not this careful figuring out of what would exactly match their personality or anything.
00:36:18.116 -->
00:36:21.396There's like a technology play here back in the day
00:36:21.936 -->
00:36:25.456things had to be handcrafted it would take forever to be expensive and you took
00:36:25.456 -->
00:36:29.316care of your things, now everything's just like cheap plastic from China right
00:36:29.316 -->
00:36:33.696like you just buy whenever it doesn't really matter just
00:36:33.696 -->
00:36:35.556Fills up landfills eventually yeah
00:36:35.556 -->
00:36:40.056Yeah dude you go like the like aisles in target and you'll be like everything
00:36:40.056 -->
00:36:43.736in here is just going straight to landfill like it's like stuffed animals and
00:36:43.736 -->
00:36:48.756you're like there's there's no home for this i have no idea what happens to this so depressing we
00:36:48.756 -->
00:36:53.376Have a yeah like we we take you know kids to fast food places and they get the
00:36:53.376 -->
00:36:56.856happy meal stuff and then we i think i just put out a garbage bag full of like
00:36:56.856 -->
00:37:01.476happy meal toys that have accumulated over like the last five years if they're listening those.
00:37:01.476 -->
00:37:04.876People who hand out flyers on the side of the road it's like oh you just give
00:37:04.876 -->
00:37:07.396this to me to put into the trash can thank you
00:37:07.396 -->
00:37:12.896Let's put that right in the gutter last one like we're coming up on it holidays
00:37:12.896 -->
00:37:18.676are stressful times do you stress about this or do you just like whatever we'll let it happen
00:37:18.676 -->
00:37:23.796I don't think i'm too stressed about it it's a little stressful you know there's
00:37:23.796 -->
00:37:28.756some crunch times where you have to figure out how to get things but like we
00:37:28.756 -->
00:37:34.876usually take time off around the holidays and yeah it's it's i'd say net net
00:37:34.876 -->
00:37:37.936relaxing although there's like some parts that are stressful.
00:37:39.338 -->
00:37:42.098There should be a little tension right like you can't just like leave your christmas
00:37:42.098 -->
00:37:46.798lights on the house all year that's right right and just be like we're rolling into it yeah
00:37:46.798 -->
00:37:49.438What about you scott how do you approach the holidays
00:37:49.438 -->
00:37:57.978Holidays it's a magical time give me give me your amazon wishlist and we'll take care of it so
00:37:57.978 -->
00:37:59.478You get them to do all the work for you
00:37:59.478 -->
00:38:02.718We'll throw money at it well if
00:38:02.718 -->
00:38:08.398someone doesn't have like a discernible like interest eventually like one will
00:38:08.398 -->
00:38:12.998be assigned to them so it's like you don't drink you don't you know i don't
00:38:12.998 -->
00:38:17.938know golf you get pigeonholed all of a sudden you're collecting uh porcelain
00:38:17.938 -->
00:38:21.618cows that's what i'm deciding for you right so yeah you're
00:38:21.618 -->
00:38:24.198Gonna get one for every holiday for the rest of your life
00:38:24.198 -->
00:38:26.038Yeah if
00:38:26.038 -->
00:38:28.438You don't have a collection yet you will by the end of this
00:38:28.438 -->
00:38:30.998Absolutely all
00:38:30.998 -->
00:38:35.438Right let's uh let's do some nerdery. The nerdery.
00:38:36.818 -->
00:38:38.738I think the one about collaboration,
00:38:38.998 -->
00:38:42.258Scott, might be a good one per the conversation we're having from earlier.
00:38:42.438 -->
00:38:43.778Do you want to go there first?
00:38:44.458 -->
00:38:48.658Yeah, this is a really cool study. And I'd love to get Matt's thoughts on this sort of thing.
00:38:49.278 -->
00:38:52.718Collaboration, physical proximity, and serendipitous encounters,
00:38:53.058 -->
00:38:55.478avoiding collaboration in the collaborative building.
00:38:55.678 -->
00:38:59.838So a lot of companies have these sort of like open office sort of buildings
00:38:59.838 -->
00:39:04.198or you'd expect that the layouts would encourage serendipitous connections,
00:39:04.478 -->
00:39:08.918you know, people to meet one another, but they rarely like really show the benefits.
00:39:09.198 -->
00:39:13.638So the author's really cool study. So they went to a collaborative building,
00:39:13.818 -->
00:39:14.518Some sort of like.
00:39:14.518 -->
00:39:17.698Specifically designed to encourage these sort of connections.
00:39:17.898 -->
00:39:20.198They sat there kind of like Jane Goodall.
00:39:20.438 -->
00:39:24.058They, you know, monitored everyone in the office. They interviewed several folks
00:39:24.058 -->
00:39:29.658and just kind of tried to discern like how they are avoiding each other and essentially
00:39:30.358 -->
00:39:34.858developing serendipitous connections was exceedingly rare due to four tactics
00:39:34.858 -->
00:39:36.578that folks would employ.
00:39:36.758 -->
00:39:41.618One is focusing on existing connections, so only talking to those people that you already know.
00:39:42.218 -->
00:39:46.218Reinforcing group boundaries, so failing to invite other people to sit at your
00:39:46.218 -->
00:39:48.398lunch table while you're eating, this sort of thing.
00:39:48.958 -->
00:39:51.638Enacting legacy policies, so essentially claiming like, well,
00:39:51.738 -->
00:39:55.018that group just does things different than us, or they're on a different financial system.
00:39:55.898 -->
00:39:59.978And minimizing social interactions, that's your typical, just put on your headphones sort of stuff.
00:40:00.278 -->
00:40:07.038But for those rare few scientists who did overcome this, they simply just said
00:40:07.038 -->
00:40:10.578hello to folks, right? Just were open to meeting people.
00:40:11.773 -->
00:40:18.813Yeah, so this reminds me of a study about a startup accelerator where they had
00:40:18.813 -->
00:40:21.093a bunch of different startup teams.
00:40:21.273 -->
00:40:25.473I think this was some kind of short-term accelerator thing.
00:40:25.553 -->
00:40:29.393So it wasn't just their permanent home. It was like they were together for a period of time.
00:40:29.793 -->
00:40:31.673And this was based in India.
00:40:32.793 -->
00:40:38.033And they kind of wanted to see who do people interact with, who do they meet,
00:40:38.353 -->
00:40:42.253who are their connections. And the people who came in already knowing people,
00:40:42.253 -->
00:40:47.013you know, came out essentially knowing fewer people than the people who didn't know anybody going in.
00:40:47.133 -->
00:40:51.613And it was because they just disproportionately relied on their pre-existing
00:40:51.613 -->
00:40:56.593ties and didn't sort of reach out or they weren't forced to reach out and meet new people.
00:40:56.793 -->
00:41:00.233So that kind of, that, you know, that, that matches what I've heard.
00:41:00.933 -->
00:41:04.133I think you'd post an article, I'll attribute to you anyway,
00:41:04.373 -->
00:41:08.313of folks going to like say conferences or like these sort of like training seminars.
00:41:08.553 -->
00:41:11.393If they already knew people going in, they met fewer people,
00:41:11.473 -->
00:41:15.953but people that don't know anybody were much more open and developed new connections overall.
00:41:16.593 -->
00:41:20.293Yeah, I don't, I'm not sure, but like this reminds me of a thing I've often
00:41:20.293 -->
00:41:22.893wondered about is like if you were going to design a conference and you just
00:41:22.893 -->
00:41:27.953want to maximize how many people you can meet. I think actually you might have
00:41:27.953 -->
00:41:30.193more luck with a smaller conference than a bigger one.
00:41:30.373 -->
00:41:33.393And because if you have a big conference, there's more likelihood that people
00:41:33.393 -->
00:41:34.433you already know are going to be there.
00:41:34.933 -->
00:41:39.013And then you can kind of just cluster together. You can get like 10 people to
00:41:39.013 -->
00:41:41.013go out that you already know for drinks.
00:41:41.253 -->
00:41:44.053And if you're in a small conference, you might know a few people,
00:41:44.173 -->
00:41:48.873but you don't have enough to just fill your weekend getting to chatting with
00:41:48.873 -->
00:41:49.613the people you already know.
00:41:50.093 -->
00:41:53.353Well, I think it goes back to all that paradox of choice. if
00:41:53.353 -->
00:41:56.253you have like three choices of people to talk to you're more likely
00:41:56.253 -->
00:41:59.313to talk to somebody than if you have a thousand people to
00:41:59.313 -->
00:42:02.313choose from and so you're just going to be paralyzed by it
00:42:02.313 -->
00:42:06.233but the thing i liked about the article scott is
00:42:06.233 -->
00:42:12.053i kept thinking this as i was looking through it you can't make me right like
00:42:12.053 -->
00:42:16.153like the organization is saying we're going to create this environment and we're
00:42:16.153 -->
00:42:20.113going to force you to sit in it and it's going to make you collaborate it's
00:42:20.113 -->
00:42:23.333going to make you serendipitously run into somebody else.
00:42:23.473 -->
00:42:28.553And the employees are saying, we've got these four strategies that say, you can't make me.
00:42:29.033 -->
00:42:32.793So another thing that I've always thought interesting about this whole line of work is.
00:42:33.793 -->
00:42:39.553It's like a pretty consistent finding that once you're even a little bit far away from somebody,
00:42:39.813 -->
00:42:43.093So I think it's like 25 meters or something, it's like they might as well like
00:42:43.093 -->
00:42:46.913be remote working because like your probability of talking to people who are
00:42:46.913 -->
00:42:51.213like quite close to you is significantly elevated if you're in the same place.
00:42:51.433 -->
00:42:54.753But you can't really actually scale that as much as you think.
00:42:55.033 -->
00:42:56.693Like you think, you know, you can.
00:42:57.373 -->
00:43:00.993That's really wild. Like, yeah, I mean, if they're not in that immediately area,
00:43:00.993 -->
00:43:06.073I often wonder about like, Like I purpose, I mad that you don't know me that
00:43:06.073 -->
00:43:08.673well, but I will talk to anybody at any time about anything.
00:43:09.133 -->
00:43:12.993And I purposely sit myself next to the bathroom here at the office.
00:43:13.173 -->
00:43:15.413And people hate me because I'm like, hey, what's up?
00:43:16.093 -->
00:43:17.733Whether they go pee or whatever.
00:43:18.133 -->
00:43:19.333They're like, oh, oh shit.
00:43:19.353 -->
00:43:26.253He's here again. You know, that sort of thing, you know. But while the proximity surely matters,
00:43:26.373 -->
00:43:31.393like you've also posted like really interesting, like naturalistic studies of say asbestos,
00:43:31.393 -->
00:43:36.153like throws two different science departments together and they i can't remember
00:43:36.153 -->
00:43:40.273the exact stats but it's like two to five x public co-publication rate than
00:43:40.273 -->
00:43:42.453you would expect at the rest of the campus yeah that's
00:43:42.453 -->
00:43:45.313A really interesting study where they were like removing asbestos so
00:43:45.313 -->
00:43:48.433they moved all the labs around it's in france and as
00:43:48.433 -->
00:43:51.313you said like if you get moved together you're a lot more likely to collaborate
00:43:51.313 -->
00:43:54.313but the thing that's interesting is when you move them apart they don't actually
00:43:54.313 -->
00:43:57.093get less likely to collaborate and that gets back to that idea
00:43:57.093 -->
00:44:00.653that like this is great for like meeting people uh but
00:44:00.653 -->
00:44:02.873then like once you're apart and i think it's important to remember these guys
00:44:02.873 -->
00:44:07.973are still all in the same like university campus so it's not like if if i meet
00:44:07.973 -->
00:44:10.393somebody and we become friends and then we decide we're going to collaborate
00:44:10.393 -->
00:44:14.713on a project but years later we're now on opposite ends of the campus it's it's
00:44:14.713 -->
00:44:17.493not that hard for us to like meet up and do all that.
00:44:17.493 -->
00:44:21.913Stuff well what can i pick on this for a second because this gets to kind of
00:44:21.913 -->
00:44:27.893the axe i have to grind with companies versus the example you used is the example you used was like
00:44:28.093 -->
00:44:31.093again the asbestos could be another argument for
00:44:31.093 -->
00:44:33.933this is just a serendipitous happening where the teams
00:44:33.933 -->
00:44:36.913got moved together it was completely random it wasn't like
00:44:36.913 -->
00:44:40.373strategically created the reason why organizations
00:44:40.373 -->
00:44:43.433are doing this usually isn't to increase collaboration
00:44:43.433 -->
00:44:46.473that's the guys they're putting on it it's usually to
00:44:46.473 -->
00:44:49.353re to reduce the real estate footprint and save money
00:44:49.353 -->
00:44:52.133right and employees are wise to
00:44:52.133 -->
00:44:54.973that right and so i i think
00:44:54.973 -->
00:44:58.313you know again that back to my point about you can't make me is
00:44:58.313 -->
00:45:01.013organizations are saying hey you know how you used to have a little bit of
00:45:01.013 -->
00:45:05.273private space that was like yours well you can't have that anymore now your
00:45:05.273 -->
00:45:08.333private space is everyone's public space and we're just going to cram as many
00:45:08.333 -->
00:45:12.973of you in as possible and and so people are saying well i'm rightfully going
00:45:12.973 -->
00:45:17.233to put up my kind of my mental and my social walls because you took away my
00:45:17.233 -->
00:45:20.833actual walls right and so there's a part of this where it's like
00:45:21.532 -->
00:45:27.552If you really want to create collaboration, you need to incentivize collaboration
00:45:27.552 -->
00:45:33.012or incentivize the serendipitous connections, but don't force it because you
00:45:33.012 -->
00:45:34.492actually have an ulterior motive.
00:45:34.752 -->
00:45:38.392That is where I come down, like the university example versus the organizational
00:45:38.392 -->
00:45:40.812example, I think are qualitatively different in that regard.
00:45:41.172 -->
00:45:44.652Yeah, I think that it's interesting how often, I mean, I get the sense too,
00:45:44.812 -->
00:45:49.292that a lot of return to office rhetoric is kind of like, you know,
00:45:49.512 -->
00:45:53.252motivated reasoning. Like that's not really why we want you to return to office.
00:45:53.472 -->
00:45:56.792It's because we don't often, it's like, maybe we don't have systems in place
00:45:56.792 -->
00:45:59.572to monitor that you're really doing work and we just don't trust you and we
00:45:59.572 -->
00:46:00.712don't have a high trust culture.
00:46:00.812 -->
00:46:03.172So we want everyone to be sort of in a place.
00:46:03.452 -->
00:46:09.812And, and the serendipity line is like a useful, you know, fig leaf about why
00:46:09.812 -->
00:46:11.652we're asking everyone to come back to the office.
00:46:11.932 -->
00:46:14.712Like, you know, there was a, there's a study that people were tweeting about
00:46:14.712 -->
00:46:16.092this morning about that.
00:46:16.172 -->
00:46:19.132I think it's interesting because I haven't read the study. So I'm going off
00:46:19.132 -->
00:46:23.212of a hot take tweet, I guess, but it was like monitoring software engineers
00:46:23.212 -->
00:46:24.392and their productivity.
00:46:24.772 -->
00:46:29.692And it looks at sort of their GitHub commits as a way to measure how productive they are.
00:46:29.952 -->
00:46:36.772And the people who are remotely working are both more likely to be like 5X engineers
00:46:36.772 -->
00:46:41.212and more likely to be what they called like ghost engineers who basically do not work.
00:46:42.039 -->
00:46:44.479And so, again, that's, I guess, that high variance thing.
00:46:44.639 -->
00:46:48.779But, you know, one response to that is sort of like, well, the org just needs
00:46:48.779 -->
00:46:51.859to do a better job of monitoring people's GitHub commits.
00:46:51.939 -->
00:46:56.159Like if these researchers can do something like this, why is it,
00:46:56.639 -->
00:46:59.179you know, why is this an issue that the firm has never thought about?
00:46:59.359 -->
00:47:04.219No, I love this point, Matt. And the thing is, is like organizations try to
00:47:04.219 -->
00:47:07.779create a singular policy for one camp or the other camp.
00:47:07.979 -->
00:47:12.659They either say, we're all 5X engineers now, clearly. And so here's our policy
00:47:12.659 -->
00:47:16.639or we're all deadbeats who don't work at all. So here's our policy.
00:47:16.819 -->
00:47:21.319And it's like, how about you, you know, again, use some organizational science
00:47:21.319 -->
00:47:25.859to show that we have a different policy per the type of performance that we're seeing.
00:47:26.159 -->
00:47:33.059Yeah, yeah. The other thing I think is interesting is like ways to try to create
00:47:33.059 -->
00:47:38.199serendipity or new connections among kind of remote employees.
00:47:38.859 -->
00:47:41.739So I think we connected because I don't
00:47:41.739 -->
00:47:44.639know if this was if you went down this route but I
00:47:44.639 -->
00:47:47.539have like on my website a like button to like book virtual coffee
00:47:47.539 -->
00:47:50.539with me yeah and like that's an intentional choice
00:47:50.539 -->
00:47:54.359because I'm based in Iowa and I value this sort of serendipity stuff and I have
00:47:54.359 -->
00:47:59.359this kind of public internet profile through writing the substack so it is likely
00:47:59.359 -->
00:48:03.739that people might stumble upon this virtual coffee button but anyway that's
00:48:03.739 -->
00:48:07.859like you can do other things too Our org has like this, you know,
00:48:08.139 -->
00:48:12.059you can sign up to be randomly matched with people to have like remote virtual
00:48:12.059 -->
00:48:14.899donut coffee, you know, once every two weeks or something.
00:48:15.279 -->
00:48:18.999Well, Matt, you just, you don't know how many people are going to virtually
00:48:18.999 -->
00:48:21.879book coffee with you now because this podcast.
00:48:21.899 -->
00:48:23.819So you may regret that decision.
00:48:23.999 -->
00:48:24.799Remove that button.
00:48:25.599 -->
00:48:28.799I do have it set up so that like you can only book one per day.
00:48:28.799 -->
00:48:30.339So I don't, I can't get over wrong.
00:48:31.299 -->
00:48:34.779I mean, like I can only do one per day. It's so.
00:48:35.657 -->
00:48:39.717There are other, I mean, we can move on, but like, I think that moving forward,
00:48:39.917 -->
00:48:44.817like FaceTime with the boss is never going to go away as well as like just the home office bias.
00:48:45.197 -->
00:48:46.937I don't think we're ever going to get away from that.
00:48:47.817 -->
00:48:55.257Well, I got an article here since we're moving on to about exit surveys versus engagement surveys.
00:48:55.457 -->
00:48:59.537And so there's been kind of this question as old as time is,
00:48:59.677 -->
00:49:04.697you know, are people honestly responding to the surveys that organizations provide?
00:49:04.697 -->
00:49:07.857And so some people have argued, well, exit surveys,
00:49:08.037 -->
00:49:13.057because there's no consequences anymore, people are being more accurate in their
00:49:13.057 -->
00:49:17.597responses, especially about politically engaged topics like,
00:49:17.757 -->
00:49:21.337do I like my manager? Do I not like my manager?
00:49:21.777 -->
00:49:25.517And, you know, I would be more afraid to share that on an engagement survey
00:49:25.517 -->
00:49:28.817because it might come back to haunt me versus an exit survey.
00:49:28.817 -->
00:49:30.977Well, they can't do anything to me more because I don't work here.
00:49:31.597 -->
00:49:35.577And friend of the podcast, Ludic Stelic. And by the way, Ludic, I need to reach out.
00:49:35.657 -->
00:49:37.997We haven't connected in a while. So I'll be reaching out to you.
00:49:38.077 -->
00:49:42.017Maybe if you put a book of coffee time on your LinkedIn, I'll book some coffee.
00:49:42.737 -->
00:49:47.497But he did some research to show that actually that's really not true.
00:49:48.177 -->
00:49:53.417And so what they did is they time lagged the number of months between when somebody
00:49:53.417 -->
00:49:55.337took an engagement survey and quitting.
00:49:55.657 -->
00:49:59.717And when they took the exit survey, presumably the exit survey came right after
00:49:59.717 -->
00:50:01.097they quit or right before they quit.
00:50:01.437 -->
00:50:05.737And what they found is, is essentially the number of months the way an engagement
00:50:05.737 -->
00:50:10.637survey was, was they were less likely to be an accurate prediction of them leaving
00:50:10.637 -->
00:50:12.677in terms of the relationship with their manager.
00:50:12.897 -->
00:50:17.177But if the exit or the engagement survey was right around the time the person
00:50:17.177 -->
00:50:21.837left, their responses were almost identical to the exit survey responses.
00:50:22.057 -->
00:50:25.497So I thought this was an interesting finding.
00:50:25.857 -->
00:50:30.557How do you guys react to this? And are there other kind of implications you
00:50:30.557 -->
00:50:33.897see in terms of other research along these lines?
00:50:35.017 -->
00:50:38.897Because I've been thinking about this question of how prevalent is scientific
00:50:38.897 -->
00:50:44.657fraud and wondering if people are under-reporting when they're doing these anonymous surveys.
00:50:44.737 -->
00:50:48.677And now I'm wondering if you could learn something by surveying retirees,
00:50:48.777 -->
00:50:54.457basically, or people who are maybe, you know, less, less worried about being caught out.
00:50:55.277 -->
00:51:00.957Yeah. Well, I love, what? Can we just like completely pivot on this for a second?
00:51:01.057 -->
00:51:04.397Cause I don't feel like we got to squeeze enough juice out of the lemon earlier
00:51:04.397 -->
00:51:05.897on the scientific fraud point.
00:51:06.477 -->
00:51:09.497Do you think, like, why is it so prevalent?
00:51:09.937 -->
00:51:13.477And again, my, my perspective has always been, it's just the incentives.
00:51:13.717 -->
00:51:17.657There's a limited number of top tier journals. There's so many academics out
00:51:17.657 -->
00:51:20.077there. It's so competitive to publish in them.
00:51:20.617 -->
00:51:23.737And frankly, a lot of science has already been conducted over the last hundred
00:51:23.737 -->
00:51:27.477years. So the chances that you're going to find something new are quite low.
00:51:27.737 -->
00:51:33.217Is it all just incentives as to why this is happening or are academics just bad people?
00:51:34.811 -->
00:51:38.311I think the academics are people and there's good and bad people.
00:51:39.051 -->
00:51:42.791I think the incentives, like I'm an economist, we really focus on the incentives.
00:51:43.071 -->
00:51:47.951And I think they're certainly like you say, and there are these sort of interesting
00:51:47.951 -->
00:51:52.231traps fields can get into where the Atlantic article alludes to one of these
00:51:52.231 -->
00:51:56.191were sort of like you're in a dynamic in, I think it was business psychology there.
00:51:56.371 -->
00:52:00.991They kind of argued where everybody's doing fraud. And so if you don't do fraud,
00:52:01.351 -->
00:52:02.251you're at a real disadvantage.
00:52:02.771 -->
00:52:05.991I mean, fraud is maybe too strong a word for what a lot of people do.
00:52:06.091 -->
00:52:08.951Like it's not often necessarily like literally making up data,
00:52:09.111 -->
00:52:12.531but often it's cutting corners on your research.
00:52:12.751 -->
00:52:15.631And, you know, you didn't find the relationship.
00:52:15.931 -->
00:52:16.831Harking, harking.
00:52:16.951 -->
00:52:20.571Exactly. You know, so all the P hacking type stuff. I think that's probably
00:52:20.571 -->
00:52:23.411pretty common, like P hacking type stuff.
00:52:24.311 -->
00:52:29.311And another kind of interesting trap you can get into is if there's a field
00:52:29.311 -->
00:52:34.991where it's just really hard to do compelling work.
00:52:35.231 -->
00:52:39.951You could argue a lot of economics has this problem where measuring stuff is harder and so forth.
00:52:40.091 -->
00:52:44.731And then if measuring stuff is really hard because you don't have a good measure
00:52:44.731 -->
00:52:47.871of innovation, for example, you can use patents to measure innovation,
00:52:47.871 -->
00:52:50.611but they are really imperfect and so forth.
00:52:50.731 -->
00:52:54.331Then that means a lot of the time your research doesn't find anything because
00:52:54.331 -->
00:53:01.151it's just the data is too noisy and then that means it's very easy to,
00:53:01.551 -->
00:53:06.651it can be hard to sort of get a finding the credible way. But also...
00:53:07.840 -->
00:53:12.800If you don't get the result you expect, so you kind of expect there to be a
00:53:12.800 -->
00:53:16.380positive relationship, but you don't see it, you know, in some sense,
00:53:16.460 -->
00:53:17.460you should take that as like a signal.
00:53:17.580 -->
00:53:20.700Maybe there's nothing there, but maybe you say, well, it's a lot of noise in
00:53:20.700 -->
00:53:22.980the data. So like it's I'll just try again.
00:53:23.340 -->
00:53:27.400And and, you know, you don't you don't sort of publish it as a null result that
00:53:27.400 -->
00:53:29.000people say, oh, maybe there's actually nothing here.
00:53:29.100 -->
00:53:32.640You just kind of bury it because you assume it's just file file drawer.
00:53:32.640 -->
00:53:39.880Yeah but yeah you wonder if the file drawer is is a bigger problem in fields where it's hard to,
00:53:40.380 -->
00:53:44.240like the data is really noisy like if you found a null result in physics for
00:53:44.240 -->
00:53:47.540example that everyone expects that you know there's going to be this we have
00:53:47.540 -->
00:53:49.460a really good theoretical physics explanation,
00:53:49.980 -->
00:53:53.180and we looked and we actually didn't see something like we couldn't detect the
00:53:53.180 -->
00:53:56.260higgs boson it's not where we thought it would be you'd publish that and that'd
00:53:56.260 -->
00:54:00.280be exciting but in other fields you know you didn't find what you thought you'd
00:54:00.280 -->
00:54:03.300see and you're like well we'll just put that in the file drawer because it's
00:54:03.300 -->
00:54:06.400probably the data was too noisy to detect it and we should just try.
00:54:06.400 -->
00:54:09.900Again engineers like claiming that we shouldn't probably you know get anything
00:54:09.900 -->
00:54:14.240out that isn't like 0.8 0.9 effect size like we're trying to predict humans
00:54:14.240 -->
00:54:15.940like you're trying to predict a steel beam
00:54:15.940 -->
00:54:16.440Yeah this.
00:54:16.440 -->
00:54:17.240Is different man
00:54:17.240 -->
00:54:22.200Yeah yeah exactly exactly but then that lets that makes it harder to sort of
00:54:22.200 -->
00:54:25.780build up the evidence base in the fields that sort of need it the most which
00:54:25.780 -->
00:54:27.580is which is the trap especially.
00:54:27.580 -->
00:54:31.740When you look over and your co-worker is like what's up like raining money and
00:54:31.740 -->
00:54:33.400all the publications everywhere.
00:54:33.840 -->
00:54:37.540Yeah, and the other thing is if it's a really hard field to do work in,
00:54:37.600 -->
00:54:42.600then that means you might need giant samples and then that becomes expensive and.
00:54:43.543 -->
00:54:45.443Yeah it's it's it's
00:54:45.443 -->
00:54:48.783Just it gets harder to learn and all sorts of so that like you get stuck in
00:54:48.783 -->
00:54:52.023that in that area without knowing much or you make really slow progress anyway.
00:54:52.023 -->
00:54:57.503Like on this study specifically i i don't think there's like a big mystery here
00:54:57.503 -->
00:55:01.243it's like proximal outcomes are just like easier to predict like if you hate
00:55:01.243 -->
00:55:05.983your boss if you snap you're like okay i'm out of here right i think it was
00:55:05.983 -->
00:55:09.383camping and moretz at profiles and quitting so there's like four different
00:55:10.223 -->
00:55:13.043profiles and people that quit some people like you can't save them at all
00:55:13.043 -->
00:55:16.083like they're gonna go off to school something like that some people
00:55:16.083 -->
00:55:20.443have like a slow burn some people like there's like a stab judgment like you
00:55:20.443 -->
00:55:23.463know their boss yells at them when they're out of there this sort of stuff really
00:55:23.463 -->
00:55:28.603interesting paper but yeah i i think that like uh quitting is kind of like an
00:55:28.603 -->
00:55:31.943it's kind of like breaking up a relationship you're like i'm done okay like
00:55:31.943 -->
00:55:34.663you reach a point you're like i'm out of here i'm looking for a new job
00:55:34.663 -->
00:55:41.643Yeah when i think adam grant has famously talked about the wisdom in finding
00:55:41.643 -->
00:55:45.363the thing you thought you should find like hey proximal effects should affect
00:55:45.363 -->
00:55:48.923things proximally right it would be weird if they didn't
00:55:48.923 -->
00:55:50.223Yeah well
00:55:50.223 -->
00:55:54.643Scott do you want to move on to the last one about transmission of mental disorders do you
00:55:54.643 -->
00:55:56.383Have time matt a couple minutes yeah
00:55:56.383 -->
00:55:57.203I can do a couple minutes.
00:55:57.203 -->
00:56:01.943Sweet transmission of mental disorders in adolescent peer networks so uh previous
00:56:01.943 -->
00:56:06.643research had indicated that mental disorders may be transmitted from one individual to another.
00:56:07.203 -->
00:56:11.683Famously, the Christakis and Fowler Farmington studies, where they found people
00:56:11.683 -->
00:56:15.803being obese and happiness, etc., will flow through people.
00:56:15.943 -->
00:56:18.823But it's never been carried out in a large, large sample.
00:56:19.023 -->
00:56:26.723So what they did is they took all Finnish citizens, born between 1985 and 1997, for whom they had data.
00:56:26.903 -->
00:56:29.943So 700,000 people, cohort members, whatever.
00:56:30.743 -->
00:56:34.323And they assessed them in, I believe it was 9th grade.
00:56:34.583 -->
00:56:39.243And the results show that having one or more diagnosed classmates in your class
00:56:39.243 -->
00:56:44.983increased your risk by 5% for a later diagnosis. The most common or the most
00:56:44.983 -->
00:56:47.683prevalent were mood, anxiety, and eating disorders.
00:56:49.423 -->
00:56:54.403The risk was most pronounced in the first year follow-up. So you have like this like proximal effect.
00:56:54.623 -->
00:56:58.443And there was also an effect of a dose response relationship.
00:56:58.443 -->
00:57:02.003So the higher the dose, the higher number of people in your class that were
00:57:02.003 -->
00:57:06.063diagnosed with a mental disorder, the more likely the students were to also
00:57:06.063 -->
00:57:08.483develop a mental disorder of the same type.
00:57:09.398 -->
00:57:11.378Interesting stuff. Interesting stuff. So like.
00:57:11.658 -->
00:57:17.098Well, it says they controlled for area level co-founders or confounders. Sorry.
00:57:17.618 -->
00:57:19.698They controlled for a lot in the study. Yeah.
00:57:19.838 -->
00:57:22.818I wonder like it was like lead in the water controlled for.
00:57:22.898 -->
00:57:26.898Because I imagine if you're drinking the water and it has lead in it and you
00:57:26.898 -->
00:57:30.498get a mental disorder, probably everyone else in the class is more likely to
00:57:30.498 -->
00:57:33.838develop a mental disorder later on in life because the lead in the water there too.
00:57:33.838 -->
00:57:40.238They controlled, it was a Cox hazard model, but it was also a multi-level regression
00:57:40.238 -->
00:57:41.978sort of formula that they worked out there.
00:57:42.258 -->
00:57:46.958And they controlled for parents' incomes and education and all sorts of factors.
00:57:46.958 -->
00:57:51.358Yeah, but that problem you're alluding to, like the related literature I know
00:57:51.358 -->
00:57:56.518that has the exact same problems is like social contagion of interest in entrepreneurship,
00:57:56.518 -->
00:57:57.958which I've written about before.
00:57:58.238 -->
00:58:03.258And so do people like they find similar things, like if you have more co-workers
00:58:03.258 -->
00:58:06.138who are ex-entrepreneurs, you're more likely to found a business yourself.
00:58:06.978 -->
00:58:13.178And the big challenge in that research is maybe people who are interested in
00:58:13.178 -->
00:58:15.538entrepreneurship work at the same companies.
00:58:15.538 -->
00:58:18.418Maybe they all just happen to work in an industry
00:58:18.418 -->
00:58:23.098that is easier to start a business in and that's why they all know each other
00:58:23.098 -->
00:58:28.978but the the papers i think do a lot of interesting stuff there's like actually
00:58:28.978 -->
00:58:31.598a lot of different lines of evidence that i think shows that this like social
00:58:31.598 -->
00:58:36.018contagion thing for entrepreneurship is is like a real deal and so i imagine
00:58:36.018 -->
00:58:37.178you could do the same kinds of,
00:58:37.698 -->
00:58:41.398tricks there like they do everything from like randomly place people together
00:58:41.398 -->
00:58:45.778with an entrepreneur versus another entrepreneur versus, yeah, so.
00:58:46.118 -->
00:58:49.838I mean, this is sort of like, are they positing it's like a placebo,
00:58:50.038 -->
00:58:56.038nocebo effect where you see somebody else experiencing something and just like
00:58:56.038 -->
00:58:59.838because of the contagion of it, you experience it too, even if it might not be real.
00:59:00.882 -->
00:59:04.802Are you talking about adolescent mental illness or entrepreneurship? Okay.
00:59:05.782 -->
00:59:08.102Well, I mean, you also see what gets rewarded and what doesn't,
00:59:08.242 -->
00:59:12.062right? So if someone gets a lot of social attention, especially at that point,
00:59:12.342 -->
00:59:17.282maybe you start seeing what gets rewarded as well.
00:59:18.022 -->
00:59:21.102One of the cooler studies I've seen is in their book, Connected,
00:59:21.242 -->
00:59:26.882Fowler and Kostakis show that the rate of back pain in East and West Germany,
00:59:27.162 -->
00:59:30.942in West Germany, probably I'm to make up numbers.
00:59:31.102 -->
00:59:34.46220% of the people had back pain. East Germany, none.
00:59:35.082 -->
00:59:39.202Wall falls down. All of a sudden, all those people in East Germany start developing back pain symptoms.
00:59:39.962 -->
00:59:41.822Why? I mean, it's like a naturalistic experiment.
00:59:42.542 -->
00:59:45.762It's interesting. I think the thing you have to, and maybe they do this already,
00:59:45.942 -->
00:59:50.582is you could imagine a thing where it's like, I didn't know that there was hope
00:59:50.582 -->
00:59:54.742for back pain. I didn't know there was treatments for it. I just lived with it.
00:59:54.882 -->
00:59:56.862And then I'd meet these guys who have it. And they're like, oh,
00:59:56.882 -->
01:00:00.222no, I went to the doctor and then you go talk to your doctor and now you get
01:00:00.222 -->
01:00:02.082clicked as also having back pain.
01:00:02.082 -->
01:00:03.842I can complain about this sweet
01:00:03.842 -->
01:00:07.762Yeah i thought that i thought you were making like a pharmaceutical commercial
01:00:07.762 -->
01:00:14.542like it's just your back hurt you need like have you tried exebo you know that
01:00:14.542 -->
01:00:19.062helps with lower back pain and that spread from west germany to east germany
01:00:19.062 -->
01:00:24.202Well i i think that clearly like the social contagion works especially like
01:00:24.202 -->
01:00:27.082a micro level like we've all experienced this situation like we're in a good
01:00:27.082 -->
01:00:31.822mood and like seven walks in and they just like kills the vibe right like they're
01:00:31.822 -->
01:00:35.402mean as hell or something like oh jesus christ yeah yeah
01:00:36.602 -->
01:00:39.542well that's a good way to end it yeah
01:00:39.542 -->
01:00:40.982You know matt like
01:00:42.023 -->
01:00:45.763I mean, meeting you today has been cool and seeing your sub stack. It's fantastic.
01:00:46.063 -->
01:00:49.443You've clearly got a lot of interesting thoughts on a lot of topics,
01:00:49.443 -->
01:00:52.563and I feel like I've already learned a lot from you. So, well,
01:00:52.603 -->
01:00:53.643thanks for joining us today.
01:00:53.883 -->
01:00:57.163Scott, any final words for Matt before we give him the final word?
01:00:57.603 -->
01:00:59.943Yeah, Matt, it's great to see you
01:00:59.943 -->
01:01:03.463again. Tell folks how they can get in contact with you if they want to.
01:01:03.743 -->
01:01:10.823Yeah, yeah. So thanks for having me on. I'm on Twitter in blue skies, Matt S. Clancy.
01:01:12.023 -->
01:01:15.943There's my website, newthingsunderthesun.com. And then there's the Substack
01:01:15.943 -->
01:01:19.243version, which I think is also mattsclancy.substack.com.
01:01:19.323 -->
01:01:22.763But you just Google New Things Under the Sun or Matt Clancy and I'll probably pop up.
01:01:23.323 -->
01:01:25.103Repeat, New Things Under the Sun.
01:01:25.243 -->
01:01:28.323That's right. New Things Under the Sun.
01:01:28.623 -->
01:01:31.583My disclaimer is Scott told me the wrong name. I did.
01:01:33.083 -->
01:01:36.383It is kind of about, well, it's about all things innovation,
01:01:36.383 -->
01:01:37.883I'd say, in science and technology. week.
01:01:38.203 -->
01:01:42.103So when you heard it here, Matt's an ex and a blue sky guy, but not a threads
01:01:42.103 -->
01:01:43.483guy. So you can't find him there.
01:01:44.943 -->
01:01:48.103I think I do have a threads account. I just never check it. Yeah.
01:01:48.403 -->
01:01:51.603Well, you've been listening to Direction and Correct, the People Analytics podcast
01:01:51.603 -->
01:01:54.923with Colin Scott and today's guest, Matt Clancy. Thanks for joining us, Matt.
01:01:55.323 -->
01:01:55.883Thanks a lot, guys.
01:01:56.583 -->
01:02:00.423Direction and Correct is dedicated to you, our listeners, to help educate and
01:02:00.423 -->
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01:02:03.723 -->
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