AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Randy Martinson | Long Antacid While The Funds Decide

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Corn took the long way around to get not very far at all in the markets today.
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Soybeans and wheat were higher, cattle and hogs moved in opposite directions.
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We'll talk harvest and cash markets in today's show, and we'll look ahead to Friday's WASD.
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As I I guess my question is, after last week's report reactions, is there another leg lower in corn and soybeans?
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From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson here for Ag Squawk in the Afternoon.
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Please just punch to have you along with us here as well.
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Thank you for tuning in wherever you may be viewing us.
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We're here every afternoon today, Monday.
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I like to talk markets on Monday, and I've got a great, great guest, a returning guest, Randy Martinson from Martinson Ag Risk Management.
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As I said in the intro, I want to get into these harvest time cash markets.
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And I guess my thought is, and I've got a little something in a news report here that I'll bring up first as sort of an introduction to what I want to ask Randy.
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But the the question is if you if you were paying attention last week, you saw the reports that came out on Wednesday last week, I believe it was.
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Massive pressure.
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Massive pressure was the result on corn and soybeans.
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We're sub four sub-five in the December corn, sub-13 in the November soybeans.
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May just be harvest, but uh there were some surprises, especially on the corn side in that re that series of reports.
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Now we've got a WASDI coming up later on this week, and I just wonder what if the news doesn't come out the way that the trade is is expecting.
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Is there room to the downside in corn?
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I'm gonna talk about that.
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We should probably hit a little bit of crop insurance, maybe, and just what's going on in uh he's in Fargo, in the uh Fargo area anyway, and so uh we'll we'll find out what's what's the word on the street up there.
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I'm glad that you're here.
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If you have not yet, please visit Agbull.com.
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Consider a subscription to our premium services.
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Agbul.com is where you find all that.
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So let's get into the news.
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We had a slew of daily export sales today, including 129,500 metric tons of corn to Mexico and 104,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, both for the 26-27 marketing year.
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We also had export inspections, corn and wheat below the previous week, with corn off nearly 20% from year ago, wheat down 48% from the same week last year.
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Meanwhile, soybeans came in 45% above the same week last year, but just below the previous week at 1.13 million metric tons.
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Now, wheat 302,04.
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Not a not a great tally.
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I would love to see see some wheat export demand coming in.
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Corn was okay, 1.367 million metric tons.
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1.3 is a pretty decent number, but again, it was it was substantially below the same time last year.
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Let's talk a little cash market as harvest gets underway in the corn belt basis has broadly weakened since early September.
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Declines are as large as 25 cents a bushel for corn, 40 cents for soybeans, according to Josh Strein, a postdoctoral research assistant in ag economics at Purdue University.
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Quote, even where basis is weaker than usual, those higher futures help support local cash prices.
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Looking ahead, expect more volatility.
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Recent research from Farm Doc Daily found that corn basis typically bottoms in mid-October.
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Around the time harvest is about halfway done.
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With harvest still early, the corn basis low may still be ahead for beans.
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Historical trends suggest many districts may already have hit their seasonal low and could begin to recover into October.
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However, delayed soybean harvest may keep basis levels suppressed.
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And this is kind of what I want to get to with Randy how is the timing of harvest maybe impacting basis in certain areas?
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And most importantly, what do farmers need to have in mind when they're thinking about marketing this crop into this uh potentially more volatile market?
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Moving on.
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A federal judge in California extended last week a temporary pause in USDA employee relocations until October 13, as he considers a preliminary injunction that would stop USDA indefinitely from enforcing employee relocations.
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Government executives Jory Heckman reported that U.S.
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District Court Judge Vince said, quote, Congress did not want USDA to be spending money on these kinds of reorganization activities unless it got permission from the committees.
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He says, and so if you take away the committee approval provision, then what you're left with is Congress does not want the USDA to be engaging in spending this money on these kinds of reorganization activities.
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According to a Brownfield Ag News report, Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Baden, who has been overseeing the reorganization, says decisions about the department's management ultimately rest with the agriculture secretary and the president.
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We'll have to see where this one winds up.
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And finally, according to a USDA news release in 2024, about 86% of all farms were small family farms.
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These farms, which have gross cash farm income below 350,000, operated on 40% of U.S.
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ag land while producing 17% of the total value of ag production, though representing 5% of farms, large-scale family farms, those with a uh GCFI of$1 million or more contributed 50% to total production and accounted for 33% of ag land operated.
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Mid-sized family farms, that's uh 350 to 999,000, represented 6% of farms, and accounted for both 18% of ag and land operated, and 18% of the total value of ag production.
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So in total, family farms accounted for about 97% of total farms, 91% of ag land operated, and 85% of total production value in 2024.
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All right, let's get to the tale of the ticker before we bring in Randy.
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Corn, soybeans and wheat rushed higher at the open, but quickly fell from early session highs.
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Still, soybeans and wheat managed to hold on to double-digit gains early.
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Hogs were higher, performing similarly, and cattle were lower, but off early session lows.
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Now, rounding into the lunch hour, corn futures were working back into positive territory, off session lows.
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Soybeans and winter wheat futures were trading a nickel to nearly 10 cents higher, and we're trading mid-range but lower, and lean hogs were still on the plus side of unchanged.
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Now let's look into the settlements.
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I've got December corn.
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I mean the December contract down a half cent, 497 and a quarter, okay?
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But after that, the March, the May, the July, all of them.
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Big goose egg on the daily change didn't go anywhere.
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Unchanged everywhere, except in the December, which was down just a half cent, but still in four-handled territory.
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November beans up two and one half cents is all we wound up with by the end of the day.
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$12.80 and three quarters.
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Soybean meal mostly lower.
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Soybean oil was higher.
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December winter wheat futures.
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Let's see, let's go to the Chicago.
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9.25 cents higher, 692 and a quarter.
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December KC wheat, 742 and a quarter at settlement.
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That was up seven cents.
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And a quick click of the tab over to the livestock.
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October feeder cattle down 77 and one half cents, 333.85.
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October fat cattle down to buck 60, 217.25.
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The December contract down a buck fifty, two nineteen ninety-seven and a half.
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And over to the lean hogs.
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Okay, lower in the October, down two and a half cents, 77.85.
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But the dece and further out from there, I mean, heck, you go clear out to the May and you're two bucks higher on the day in the lean hogs.
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The December contract up 82 and one half cents on the day to 70.
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And with that, let me welcome back Randy Martinson from Martinson Ag.
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Appreciate having Randy back.
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Uh how's it going, brother?
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Good to see you once again.
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Thanks for spending some time with us the second time.
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You're a glutton for punishment, my brother.
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Well, nobody said I was the sharpest crayon in the box, but uh, you know, no, I'm glad to be back.
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So thank you.
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Absolutely, absolutely.
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Well, and and maybe you maybe you heard from uh where you were just then, but I was talking about this market action, and maybe maybe we could start there over on the future side before we talk too much about the cash.
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It just feels like whether to the upside in corn, beans, and wheat, or whether to the downside in the cattle, you know, I I checked the markets about a half an hour into the session and already off-session highs or off-session lows, respectively, and it just felt like everything was just sort of overdone, and the whole rest of the day was kind of almost correcting back toward the center there.
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Do you understand what I'm saying?
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Does this make any sense to you?
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And what does this tell us anything?
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Well, it it it well, I think what it tells us is that you know, we had a flurry of maybe news that hit the market right away early on, and then the market or the news just kind of died out.
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I mean, it we just seem to be kind of continuing to rehash the same news that we've been seeing here for the last few weeks.
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We're into harvest, and right now I think that's adding a little bit to it, whereas you know, we're finally seeing, you know, maybe a two-week stretch of really good weather where the combines are going to be able to roll across all of the U.S., not just certain pockets.
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But so it looks like that we're likely going to get some good harvest progress.
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That I think is adding a little bit of pressure onto the market.
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I think that's why corn kind of slipped a little bit today and finished down.
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There was some disappointment about the export inspection numbers as well, that they weren't as stellar as what we were hoping that they would be.
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But then soybeans on the flip side, you know, they had decent numbers and with the combines rolling, you know, that's when we're gonna start telling the truth is gonna be known of what we have for a crop.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Well, and I, you know, we ended last week almost kind of on a sad note, talking about in in my former backyard anyway, Grundy County, Iowa, it's just too darn wet to get out there, and it's gonna be that way for a while.
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We'll look at the weather map a little bit later on in the program here, but uh, it does look like there's a dry stretch coming on.
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Under normal circumstances, it'd be time to turn and burn, but uh it's just too too doggone wet in some of the key, key growing areas.
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How's it look up there in your backyard?
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You know, we finally on this weekend.
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I mean, we picked up enough rain last week where combines got knocked out of the fields.
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There wasn't much activity going on.
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Now on Saturday noon, some combines started, you know, the grounds firmed up enough, some combines got rolling.
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By Sunday, they were pretty much going everywhere.
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And so guys are trying to, I mean, and it's a struggle up here to figure out what you want to combine first because most guys are trying to get the soybeans because they're the most vulnerable for any kind of weather.
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But then the corn, because of a lot of eardroppage and and a lot of stock integrity issues, a lot of guys are trying to get out and get a lot of corn off the field because just to try to save as many bushels as they can.
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So, I mean, it's kind of it's it's the tale of two cities, but yeah, we're seeing a lot of activity now over the last couple of days.
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And with the weather forecast, I think we'll be able to continue to see some pretty good harvest activity take place up here.
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Now, as you mentioned with the basis, that certainly has been encouraging to go after and get these beans, especially taking them to a crush plant.
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Well, and I was talking to Joe, Joe Gersafi, just ahead of the show here.
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Now he's over in Indiana, but he kind of spent some time out and among the good folks in his area talking farmy stuff.
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And from where he's sitting, a lot of the comments were basically, you know, the beans look fantastic.
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The corn, meh, not so much.
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I wonder what you're hearing up there in your area.
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You know, I was talking to some producers today that were out combining the beans, and they've been, you know, in certain areas, I mean, like central North Dakota, they've been pretty pleased with the yields that have been coming in in that area.
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And their comment is, you know, we were kind of worried about the beans, but now we're starting to flip, and and our concern is more towards what the corn's gonna look like because the heat kind of lasted a little longer on the corn, impacted the pollination a little bit more.
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So it's gonna be interesting.
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But right now, you know, for the most part, beans up in this area, we're seeing you know, most coming in somewhere between 25 and 35.
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There are reports of some 50 bushel beans, but that's where they got an extra rain or two that really were able to help push the crop.
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Yeah.
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A few weeks ago, Tommy uh Grassafi asked me to pick a new term for wheat other than poverty grass.
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And so I came up with success turf.
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So I'll just ask you, is has there been renewed enthusiasm for success turf up there in North Dakota?
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Uh, not so much.
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I think we're still going with poverty grass up here.
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So you know, it's you know, the trouble is, and and you mentioned it in when you started, it's just we would like to see more exports, we'd like to see that demand.
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And especially when you've got you know a third less exports going out of the Black Sea region than normal, you know, for this for the last month, that we should be able to pick up something.
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Now, exports were a little bit better than what they anticipated today, but they're not picking up the pace like they need to.
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And with the expectation that because of the high revenue price for the winter wheat, we're gonna see an influx of winter wheat acres, and that I think is could kind of uh pressure that wheat market a little bit more as we go forward.
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I feel like we need to run some wheat out of out of Europe, they need to run out of wheat, exportable supplies anyway, before we can really see a ton of substantial demand coming in, and maybe that overgeneralizes a little bit.
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But I just wonder at that point, if maybe these prices suddenly don't seem too high anymore.
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Is there just too much supply in the world?
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Because I mean, I would imagine Europe's a little short on wheat after the summer that they've had.
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Oh, yeah, you're right.
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I mean, you know, they got hit pretty bad with the drought, and then the production is down just like what we're seeing here, as far as our winter wheat region is concerned.
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And even the spring wheat, even our production was down as you saw that in the small grain summer, USD lowered the production.
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So, yeah, we are looking at lower production here, but we had such a tremendous crop in uh Australia, Argentina, and all that is coming in to help kind of fill the void of and even India having a good crop where they're not having to import, they're likely gonna have a little bit to export.
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All that just kind of uh impacting the market here a little bit more than we anticipated that it would.
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Yeah, yeah.
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You had your uh flannel radar on right away when you popped on.
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You noted I'm wearing flannel today.
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It's uh we it's definitely taking a turn from for the cooler here in Kansas City, which really just translates, you know, we're we're 75 degrees instead of 95.
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I wonder if your flannel radar wasn't on because you're you're bumping up against some frost temperatures up there in Fargo.
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Yeah, we are.
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You know, there was a little bit that happened over the weekend in some of the areas, but you know, we're already, you know, what are we at the 5th of October?
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So we're already a week, 10 days past, you know, our normal frost date.
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Likely we'll see probably most would like to see a killing frost at this point.
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I mean, basically the crop is done, it's just to finish off the weeds and and get everything else to kind of get even, and then guys can pretty much be just see general harvest.
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Some guys are even needing to see maybe some of the frost or hard hard freezes so they can uh support the combines out in the field.
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Yeah, yeah, that's what I was thinking too.
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So you already mentioned activity is is pretty decent up there, had a little bit of a slowdown over the weekend, but is is harvest pushed back?
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Are you are are you later than I mean, should there be more going on by this point?
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And if so, is there a basis implication for that or a strategic implication, really, is what I'm trying to get at.
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I would say we're a little bit behind right now compared to where we should be at, especially soybeans.
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You know, it because of the rain and it just took a while to get some of the plants to drop their leaves.
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So I think we're a little bit behind on the soybeans.
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That has helped to push the basis levels, especially at the crush plants.
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We're looking at some really attractive basis levels, especially, you know, even when we get into the November, the January, the February time frame.
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And that kind of coincides with the time frame that we'd be looking at our export market needing to get some soybeans, you know, get some move to the Pacific Northwest to fill the exports that China has that we've seen from China buying.
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So we are seeing some aggressive basis levels, but not right now.
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I mean, the the supply is available, so the basis levels are sitting at about an average for this time frame.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Okay, very good.
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Well, let's uh let's move on to you mentioned the small grain summary uh and the reports last week.
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The corn reaction was was not great, and I think we all sort of understand that reaction, but we've got a whole nother report coming up here at the end of this week.
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I asked it from the very beginning, Randy, and I'm I'm ready to ask this question of you.
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You know what?
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No, let's not get there first.
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What should we be watching for, or maybe what is the trade looking for in this report?
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Oh boy, you know, of course, we're gonna see the numbers that came from the small grain summary and for the quarterly grain stocks come in table form.
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So we're gonna see those come in and adjusted as far as old crop, soybean and corn stocks are concerned.
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Not much is gonna change as far as soybeans are concerned.
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For wheat, we'll see production lowered a little bit.
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Not a mall, not a lot of change there.
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I wouldn't be surprised though to see maybe USD lower exports a little bit just because of how slow that piece has been.
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I think we're at the slowest export sales and shipments in years right now for wheat.
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So I do expect that we'll see a little bit of a tweaking of that number.
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But overall, I don't look for anything big coming on the wheat side.
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That would be terribly bearish.
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I just look for it to be a little negative.
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On the corn side, you know, the uh I'm expecting, you know, I might be out in the island by myself here, but I expect the USA will come in and lower yield a little bit.
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And that, I think the reason they lowered feed demand as much as they did is to give them room to be able to lower yield in this report without causing much of an influence as far as the market is concerned.
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So I think we'll see a yield reduction, which will lower production about equal to or close to what we would would have seen from the lower demand side.
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I don't think USD will change exports.
00:20:07.169 --> 00:20:13.889
I don't think they'll change, they'll have to lower old crop ethanol a little bit because our final numbers came in a little lower than anticipated.
00:20:14.129 --> 00:20:17.009
On soybeans, I really don't look for them to change much of anything.
00:20:17.089 --> 00:20:20.449
I think things will stay pretty much steady with the previous month.
00:20:20.689 --> 00:20:27.490
So really, I'm looking for the report to be semi-friendly as far as corn is concerned and neutral to the soybeans.
00:20:27.889 --> 00:20:32.929
You talk about that talking about the corn yield, we had a couple of yield estimates out.
00:20:33.009 --> 00:20:36.449
I believe it was Friday, late last week, anyway.
00:20:36.689 --> 00:20:46.289
And one came in at a 182, if I'm remembering off the top of my head, another one came in at a 178, and it almost seemed like the trade wanted to believe that 182 more than the 178.
00:20:46.369 --> 00:20:47.089
Is that fair?
00:20:47.329 --> 00:20:48.129
Yeah, that's fair.
00:20:48.209 --> 00:20:51.329
I mean, you know, but we were in a bearish mode last uh last week.
00:20:51.409 --> 00:20:54.689
So I mean, it I think that kind of grabbed everybody's attention.
00:20:54.929 --> 00:21:01.490
And I think if I'm not mistaken, that was Stonex that came with the higher one, and they've been somewhat accurate on their yield estimates.
00:21:01.730 --> 00:21:04.129
Yeah, yeah, true, true, that's fair.
00:21:04.449 --> 00:21:17.329
All right, so my question here, and I I understand you're you're you're saying uh maybe not a huge mover in the October WASDI.
00:21:17.730 --> 00:21:24.609
If there is some sort of surprise in there, is there another leg lower for corn and soybeans here?
00:21:24.849 --> 00:21:29.009
Or I'm just I want to know where the low is, Randy.
00:21:29.089 --> 00:21:30.049
That's all I want to know.
00:21:30.129 --> 00:21:32.609
If you could just answer that for me, that'd be great.
00:21:33.169 --> 00:21:38.929
You know, there yeah, there is another leg down if we come in with some negative news, most definitely.
00:21:39.009 --> 00:21:48.769
I mean, if they came in and they lowered the demand by that and they saw you know stocks or production yield left unchanged, I think that would be negative to the market.
00:21:48.849 --> 00:21:56.929
I think that would then you know kind of verify the numbers that we saw at the end of September, and it would be a little bit negative to the market moving forward.
00:21:57.089 --> 00:22:07.089
And we could see you know corn break through that 495 December and likely would go down another 20, maybe 25 cents to find the next uh support line.
00:22:07.250 --> 00:22:08.449
You know, beans, I think.
00:22:09.009 --> 00:22:15.250
They're next, you know, if they break through this 1285 area, we stop flirting with that 13.
00:22:15.409 --> 00:22:17.649
I think we could be looking at 1240 pretty quick.
00:22:17.730 --> 00:22:22.769
And those are levels that I think that are possible with a negative report.
00:22:22.929 --> 00:22:25.409
You know, like you said earlier, though, this is the week.
00:22:25.569 --> 00:22:32.129
Uh, you know, this time frame is when we normally put bottoms in in corn and soybeans once harvest gets to a certain point.
00:22:32.209 --> 00:22:35.329
And I'm hoping that this week is the week we're doing that.
00:22:35.809 --> 00:22:37.490
Would you generally favor?
00:22:38.689 --> 00:22:48.049
Doesn't sound like you you're you feel a sense of urgency to do too much as far as protect protecting the downside or capturing the upside.
00:22:48.289 --> 00:22:52.849
Are we in kind of a a wait and see from the marketing plan standpoint?
00:22:53.250 --> 00:22:56.209
You know, I was I was a buyer on uh Friday.
00:22:56.289 --> 00:23:06.129
I thought you know that was the time frame to come in and do some buying and re-owning of uh the crop, especially since we know tested that 495 a couple times in the corn.
00:23:06.209 --> 00:23:14.849
I thought that was kind of gave us confidence enough to be able to come in and have some reownership of corn and even soybeans bouncing off of uh some support.
00:23:15.089 --> 00:23:29.969
So yeah, I I'm comfortable buying here, but you know, I would also then looking at only buying potential, you know, a part a partial of what you want to re-own, if we see that next leg down, that's when I want to finish off and buy the rest of the crop back.
00:23:30.289 --> 00:23:31.329
Okay, very good.
00:23:31.649 --> 00:23:40.049
Maybe I'm dealing with with outdated information here, but it does seem like at least in corn and soybeans, the funds, especially corn, the funds are are still hanging right in there.
00:23:40.129 --> 00:23:43.730
They held a record long position in the corns just not too long ago.
00:23:43.969 --> 00:23:46.689
Any indication of that they're they're starting to crack?
00:23:47.089 --> 00:23:50.209
You know, we saw a little bit of a pullback last week from the funds.
00:23:50.289 --> 00:23:53.250
You know, they liquidated some of their long, but it's still not very much.
00:23:53.329 --> 00:24:00.289
And you know, when you still add them all together, we're still at a record long for the corn, the soybeans, and and the bean plaques added together.
00:24:00.449 --> 00:24:04.689
So the funds are still looking to try to defend long positions as well.
00:24:04.929 --> 00:24:06.529
Yeah, yeah, very good.
00:24:06.689 --> 00:24:09.569
That feels see, but that that feels tedious to me.
00:24:09.649 --> 00:24:13.569
It feels like it it could tip and tip in a hurry.
00:24:13.730 --> 00:24:15.089
Am I thinking about that right?
00:24:15.409 --> 00:24:26.289
Well, you get a point that if you know once the funds want to take their ball and go home, you know, they take their ball and then they go home in a big way, and that really could push this market down to see some pretty good losses.
00:24:26.449 --> 00:24:33.490
So it it just depends on what their attitude is and and what if they see there's a reason to continue to hold that long position.
00:24:33.809 --> 00:24:45.169
So you're suggesting we go long antacid and uh wait wait for another opportunity to hop in below today's value and uh and see how she goes from there.
00:24:45.250 --> 00:24:46.209
I think I've got that right.
00:24:46.289 --> 00:24:47.809
I'm gonna put that in my notes, in fact.
00:24:48.529 --> 00:24:49.649
Am I reading your signals?
00:24:49.969 --> 00:24:51.089
You're you're reading it right.
00:24:51.169 --> 00:24:51.250
Yes.
00:24:51.409 --> 00:24:53.809
Tums is Tums is our friend.
00:24:55.009 --> 00:24:57.969
I had some I experimented last night.
00:24:58.049 --> 00:24:59.969
I made some uh curry sauce.
00:25:00.049 --> 00:25:02.529
So we had like some chicken and rice with some curry on it.
00:25:02.689 --> 00:25:03.969
I woke up with a little heartburn.
00:25:04.049 --> 00:25:06.929
I had to have a Tums overnight, woke up in the middle of the night.
00:25:07.009 --> 00:25:09.889
It was I think just you talking about it makes me need a Tums.
00:25:11.889 --> 00:25:13.569
Well, it was delicious, you know.
00:25:13.649 --> 00:25:17.409
It was it tasted great going down, but uh yeah, yeah.
00:25:17.649 --> 00:25:21.409
Well, I appreciate your candor on on all of that, Randy.
00:25:21.649 --> 00:25:24.209
Any any thoughts on the livestock?
00:25:24.369 --> 00:25:25.889
Some pressure on the cattle here.
00:25:26.049 --> 00:25:28.289
Not not a ton to start the week.
00:25:28.449 --> 00:25:30.369
The hogs had a pretty decent day.
00:25:30.449 --> 00:25:35.409
I just I just kind of feel like the livestocks are doing what what they do seasonally.
00:25:35.490 --> 00:25:36.769
Uh I don't know.
00:25:36.849 --> 00:25:39.169
I I'm not sure that there are any huge surprises right there.
00:25:39.250 --> 00:25:40.209
Am I missing anything?
00:25:40.609 --> 00:25:41.329
No, not really.
00:25:41.409 --> 00:25:44.449
I mean, seasonally, you see the numbers start to increase this time frame.
00:25:44.529 --> 00:25:48.769
You know, the hog numbers start to increase with marketings, you know, the hogs come into town.
00:25:48.849 --> 00:25:50.049
You know, you see the same thing.
00:25:50.129 --> 00:25:54.049
We start usually our spring calves start in the market around this time frame.
00:25:54.369 --> 00:25:55.730
So supplies are starting to build.
00:25:55.809 --> 00:26:05.089
I'm starting to see a lot of you know features coming from the auction rings about uh some of the calves coming now over the next couple of weeks with the the spring calves.
00:26:05.250 --> 00:26:08.929
So I it's traditionally you see this, uh like you said, at this time frame.
00:26:09.009 --> 00:26:15.409
We do have that 30,000, 300,000 metric ton of you know imported beef hitting the market right now as well.
00:26:15.490 --> 00:26:21.809
So that's kind of depressing some of the domestic prices, you know, more so the kalko market.
00:26:21.969 --> 00:26:31.250
But I think you know, once we get done with November, we're gonna see that problem come back again and and we'll start to see that market start to rise, which I think will help the fat cattle at that time frame.
00:26:31.490 --> 00:26:34.449
But you're right, I think right now it's just seasonal movements.
00:26:34.609 --> 00:26:35.250
Yeah, yeah.
00:26:35.490 --> 00:26:35.809
Okay.
00:26:36.049 --> 00:26:42.929
Let's hop back over to the grains just for one second, and then I need your help prepping for a show later on this week, if you don't mind.
00:26:43.250 --> 00:26:44.689
Back to the grains.
00:26:45.649 --> 00:26:56.929
Talk to me about some of the decisions that your customers, that your friends, that that your neighbors are going through right now, as far as high diesel, high fertilizer prices.
00:26:57.169 --> 00:27:02.929
I mean, once once the corn and soybeans are out, you know, you then it's decision time.
00:27:03.009 --> 00:27:04.929
Am I gonna put down some PK this fall?
00:27:05.089 --> 00:27:09.009
Am I gonna am I gonna start doing some field prep and and whatnot?
00:27:09.250 --> 00:27:16.049
Dude, it's uh it's getting real with the the high diesel prices, and of course the the inputs prices just aren't given.
00:27:16.129 --> 00:27:20.689
You know, we got a little break in Iowa and Illinois on and hydris, but not much.
00:27:20.849 --> 00:27:22.849
Phosphates still headed higher.
00:27:23.009 --> 00:27:24.289
It's it's difficult.
00:27:24.449 --> 00:27:28.529
Can you talk us talk to us about some of those decisions that are being made right now?
00:27:28.929 --> 00:27:33.009
Yeah, I mean that that's is I was getting that question a few times here today as well.
00:27:33.089 --> 00:27:36.929
You know, is what do I do with the extra beans that I don't have contracted?
00:27:37.009 --> 00:27:39.169
And then what do I do about fertilizer?
00:27:39.329 --> 00:27:51.169
And you know, I I think you the easy answer would well, there is no easy answer, but the probably the most popular route that guys are looking at is looking to put down about a third of what they normally would.
00:27:51.490 --> 00:27:59.250
One, you know, we're still dry enough up here where it's gonna be hard to do a lot of tillage to unless we get some more moisture to even activate the fertilizer.
00:27:59.409 --> 00:28:06.129
So, you know, there's that's gonna hold back some guys from going out and and doing some spreading of the fertilizer in the as well.
00:28:06.289 --> 00:28:11.969
But I think most are gonna look at doing somewhere around a third of what their needs are to put it on next year's corn ground.
00:28:12.129 --> 00:28:25.009
Maybe you know, those that are going to put in the poverty grass or the wheat will put a little bit of fertilizer down just to get things started so that they don't have as big of a workload in the spring.
00:28:25.169 --> 00:28:30.529
Our springs can somewhat be somewhat short, so some like to try to get as much done as possible.
00:28:30.689 --> 00:28:39.730
So I would expect there'll be some, but there's not gonna be a lot of recreational tillage taking place as you know the cost out there is is kind of prohibiting that from happening.
00:28:39.969 --> 00:28:40.529
Yeah, yeah.
00:28:40.689 --> 00:28:44.689
Well, you are resistant to that success turf terminology there.
00:28:44.769 --> 00:28:46.209
You're hanging with poverty grass.
00:28:46.289 --> 00:28:48.289
I get it, I totally get it.
00:28:48.849 --> 00:28:50.049
Let me just throw this at you.
00:28:50.129 --> 00:28:51.169
Maybe you don't want to answer this.
00:28:51.250 --> 00:28:56.849
Maybe this is premium content from your end, but what does a guy do with some of them extra beans if they have them?
00:28:57.169 --> 00:28:59.329
You know, and I'm telling guys, put them in the bin.
00:28:59.409 --> 00:29:08.449
You know, if we're looking at basis levels tight now, you know, and with as tight as things got here as we are going towards the end of the marketing season for soybeans.
00:29:08.609 --> 00:29:12.449
And I think our yield is going to be down as far as the the northern plains is concerned.
00:29:12.609 --> 00:29:15.169
We get two big crush plants up here in North Dakota now.
00:29:15.329 --> 00:29:23.649
I do think that our basis levels and our markets will get better once we get into this you know early winter spring time frame.
00:29:23.889 --> 00:29:28.929
So if you got the ability where you can put it in the bin, I'd tell you to put it in the bin and hold some.
00:29:29.250 --> 00:29:29.969
Yeah, yeah.
00:29:30.129 --> 00:29:33.409
Two new crush plants as of when when did those open?
00:29:33.569 --> 00:29:34.449
Do you do you recall?
00:29:34.849 --> 00:29:37.889
One was probably three years ago and one was two years ago.
00:29:37.969 --> 00:29:49.250
So we've been I I've been talking with with people for a few years now about some of the anticipation of crushed demand for crushed beans.
00:29:49.329 --> 00:29:50.289
Can we call it that?
00:29:50.769 --> 00:29:56.769
Be it biodiesel, be it you know, biofuels, be it whatever, sunshine fuel, who knows?
00:29:56.849 --> 00:30:00.689
But there was big talk about oh no, corn acres are going to switch over to beans.
00:30:00.769 --> 00:30:04.769
Have you seen so you've got you've got two plants up and running now?
00:30:05.250 --> 00:30:11.169
Have you seen a major shift in in acreage between anything else and soybeans?
00:30:11.889 --> 00:30:18.209
Well, I mean, again, the poverty grass, we've seen that you know, acres come down a little bit.
00:30:18.449 --> 00:30:24.529
I mean, if you look at the 10-year chart, I think springweed acres have seen a pretty good dive all 10 years.
00:30:24.689 --> 00:30:26.929
I think you know, losing somewhere around 4 million.
00:30:27.009 --> 00:30:32.369
And a lot of that has been switched over to the corn market and to soybeans.
00:30:32.529 --> 00:30:41.009
Now, everybody, I mean, just like you in the corn belt, guys like to grow corn here because corn has been very good and and has been consistent.
00:30:41.169 --> 00:30:44.769
So corn will always take the first, uh, will probably take the lead.
00:30:44.929 --> 00:30:52.449
But we are seeing soybean acres increase as well just because of the crushed plants and to spread out your workload a little bit.
00:30:52.609 --> 00:30:53.169
Yeah, yeah.
00:30:53.329 --> 00:30:55.889
Was that the wheat growers association, Colin, just then?
00:30:56.049 --> 00:30:56.529
Yeah, it was.
00:30:57.089 --> 00:30:59.409
They're calling for success turf, I think, probably.
00:31:00.129 --> 00:31:00.529
Back then.
00:31:02.049 --> 00:31:02.449
All right.
00:31:02.609 --> 00:31:10.609
Well, I was I was reading on your bio on the on the on the interwebs, and it it talked about crop insurance.
00:31:10.849 --> 00:31:20.209
And I don't know if you're still a licensed crop insurance agent or not, but it feels like it's coming up on decision time on crop insurance.
00:31:20.369 --> 00:31:34.049
And the reason I said earlier that I need you to help me with my show prep later on this week, I've got someone who does crop insurance full-time, and I run pretty shallow on crop insurance, and maybe there are those in my audience who do.
00:31:34.209 --> 00:31:47.969
Hopefully, those folks won't judge me too harshly when I just ask you, you know, can you just give me some bullets, outline some of the what's on your mind when you think about crop insurance right now, here on October 5th?
00:31:48.289 --> 00:31:52.449
Well, the big thing that we're you know, right now that's going on is that we're setting our harvest prices.
00:31:52.609 --> 00:31:57.730
So the harvest price that gets established will be what we basically work any claims off of.
00:31:57.889 --> 00:32:14.529
So, you know, right now it's likely we're gonna see some claim situations take place up here, especially for some of the producers that have you know optional units, you know, and we're also gonna be looking at just our corn yields are gonna be low enough and and our soybeans in some areas will see some challenging.
00:32:14.689 --> 00:32:23.649
So it's gonna be a busy claim season up here in the northern plains just because of the how the weather went and and with the production that's gonna be there.
00:32:23.809 --> 00:32:27.649
So, right now, setting the the harvest price is one of the things that we're watching.
00:32:27.809 --> 00:32:37.490
We just finished off you know a sale season for some of some of the private products, you might say, so the margin protection and MCO.
00:32:37.649 --> 00:32:39.169
So those just wrapped up here.
00:32:39.250 --> 00:32:47.730
And so, guys, now we'll be looking at kind of wrapping up the production side for the 26th season and and getting claim situations handled.
00:32:48.609 --> 00:33:01.089
Oftentimes when we think about marketing, we think about the cash market, we think about basis, we think about futures, we think about protecting the uh the bot the downside and capturing the upside.
00:33:01.329 --> 00:33:11.730
But along inside that toolbox, I would argue, and I would imagine that you would too, crop insurance belongs in that that same conversation.
00:33:11.889 --> 00:33:13.169
Is that a fair thing to say?
00:33:13.490 --> 00:33:14.449
Oh, most definitely.
00:33:14.529 --> 00:33:19.169
I mean, that's the basis of your risk management, you know, what you should be looking at.
00:33:19.329 --> 00:33:27.169
Because that gives you an idea of just what your production, you know, what your guaranteed production is, kind of you know what you're protected to.
00:33:27.329 --> 00:33:35.409
And then you, you know, normally when you're marketing, you don't want to market over that because you don't want to have that extra exposure in the cash market for unprotected bushels.
00:33:35.569 --> 00:33:37.569
So, I mean, that that's a big stepping.
00:33:37.889 --> 00:33:49.889
I mean, that's where you kind of start figuring out where your you know levels of selling and and how much you should sell on each increment uh is kind of based off of what your crop insurance does, your levels and and your pricing.
00:33:50.129 --> 00:33:50.529
Yeah.
00:33:50.849 --> 00:33:54.769
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag Risk Management.
00:33:55.009 --> 00:33:58.849
Before we before we move on, what are we missing here?
00:33:58.929 --> 00:34:00.769
What's top of mind for you right now?
00:34:00.929 --> 00:34:02.769
What's top of mind for your clients?
00:34:03.009 --> 00:34:06.689
Anything else that we need to make sure and get said here for our viewers?
00:34:07.169 --> 00:34:18.049
Well, you know, really it's just like I mentioned, you know, it's getting this harvest done, figuring out where we're at, figuring out what we've got for a crop, figuring out if we have any insurance claims and get them taken care of.
00:34:18.210 --> 00:34:26.690
And then hopefully, if we can get some moisture and we can start, I mean, that it's not so much this year that we're worried about, it's next year if we don't start getting moisture.
00:34:26.849 --> 00:34:43.170
And that could lead into you know some bigger problems uh if we continue to see the drought situation develop into uh 2027, and then starting to pick some levels to maybe start making some sales for next year, you know, with the backing of the crop insurance to help us.
00:34:43.409 --> 00:34:45.009
Yeah, terrific.
00:34:45.409 --> 00:34:49.170
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag Risk Management.
00:34:49.250 --> 00:34:49.969
Let's move on.
00:34:50.130 --> 00:34:51.889
Um, maybe you recall.
00:34:51.969 --> 00:34:59.250
I like to uh we've already sort of talked about the weather up there, but if I see you've got a nice window behind you there, it looks like a nice sunshiny day.
00:34:59.489 --> 00:35:02.849
What uh current conditions right there outside your window?
00:35:02.929 --> 00:35:04.449
What are we looking at today, Randy?
00:35:04.690 --> 00:35:06.289
It is a beautiful day.
00:35:06.369 --> 00:35:10.690
I mean, it's a little windy, but I mean it sounds like this the next couple weeks.
00:35:10.849 --> 00:35:17.809
Well, this this week and the beginning of next week, sounds like we're gonna be in the 70s, possibly close to 80.
00:35:17.969 --> 00:35:21.730
It's gonna help get producers, you know, so that we can get this crop harvested.
00:35:21.969 --> 00:35:31.569
But then next week, it sounds like we're gonna turn into so everybody here will be wearing flannels, we'll be at about 50 degrees and see fall come in with a vengeance.
00:35:31.650 --> 00:35:38.610
So by the time we get to the middle of October, we're gonna see the kind of our cooler temperatures start to grip us.
00:35:38.769 --> 00:35:39.009
Yeah.
00:35:39.170 --> 00:35:40.529
Are you a pumpkin spice guy?
00:35:40.690 --> 00:35:46.690
Do you run out to your local coffee uh coffee retailer and get you some pumpkin spice first time this this time of year?
00:35:46.849 --> 00:35:47.569
First thing?
00:35:47.809 --> 00:35:53.089
You know, I I kind of lead more towards Dairy Queen with uh the blizzard, but uh yeah.
00:35:54.130 --> 00:35:55.489
Oh, that's a good one.
00:35:55.569 --> 00:35:56.769
I didn't even have that on my list.
00:35:56.929 --> 00:35:58.929
I'm gonna have to get some ice cream today, too.
00:35:59.089 --> 00:36:00.049
I appreciate it.
00:36:00.210 --> 00:36:08.130
Well, it's uh about 75 degrees sunshine, just as gorgeous as it could be out here in Kansas City, Missouri.
00:36:08.369 --> 00:36:20.369
According to the National Weather Service, a slow moving front will be the focus area for heavy to excessive rainfall and a threat for flash and urban flooding across parts of the Gulf Coast into central northern Florida early this week.
00:36:20.529 --> 00:36:25.089
Abnormally hot, potentially record-breaking temperatures will continue for Southern California.
00:36:25.250 --> 00:36:29.489
By the way, Randy, we've been watching this weather pattern down here along the Gulf Coast.
00:36:29.650 --> 00:36:35.969
And I mentioned that I've uh vacationed down in the Redneck Riviera down south of Mobile, Gulf Shores, Alabama.
00:36:36.130 --> 00:36:40.529
Have you ever been down to the Redneck Riviera on the uh the Gulf Coast of uh of Alabama?
00:36:40.769 --> 00:36:42.529
I I have not been that far south.
00:36:42.690 --> 00:36:46.210
I think the uh middle of Mississippi was as far south as I've been.
00:36:46.449 --> 00:36:47.889
Okay, okay, very nice.
00:36:47.969 --> 00:36:55.250
Well, if you're looking for a spot to vacation, and here's the thing: I would usually go during hurricane season because the hotels are cheaper.
00:36:55.409 --> 00:36:59.809
You can get one right down on the beach if you're willing to uh to risk getting caught up in a hurricane.
00:36:59.889 --> 00:37:00.849
Back to the weather.
00:37:01.089 --> 00:37:06.369
Midwestern temps will be slightly above normal with dry conditions expected this week.
00:37:06.529 --> 00:37:11.889
All right, let's get into some uh items of mild interest quick, Randy, and then I'll cut you loose for the day.
00:37:12.049 --> 00:37:15.009
But in uh 1947, he popped up there just a little bit.
00:37:15.170 --> 00:37:20.289
The first televised White House address was given by U.S.
00:37:20.529 --> 00:37:22.130
President Harry S.
00:37:22.289 --> 00:37:22.849
Truman.
00:37:23.089 --> 00:37:28.369
Speaking of televised, I don't I don't want to get partisan or anything, but uh super intelligence.
00:37:28.449 --> 00:37:30.690
It's not artificial intelligence anymore, Randy.
00:37:30.769 --> 00:37:32.849
Apparently it's it's super intelligence.
00:37:33.009 --> 00:37:35.569
Does that make any difference to you whatsoever, what we call it?
00:37:35.889 --> 00:37:37.730
Uh absolutely none.
00:37:38.210 --> 00:37:38.929
Me neither.
00:37:39.170 --> 00:37:40.610
Me neither, me neither.
00:37:40.849 --> 00:37:47.969
1943, it's the birthday of Steve Miller, American singer, songwriter, the joker himself.
00:37:48.130 --> 00:37:53.089
I saw Steve Miller in Sioux City, Iowa, on his 70th birthday.
00:37:53.250 --> 00:37:54.769
And I'm a musician.
00:37:55.409 --> 00:38:07.889
And I thought to myself, man, if I don't know, to be out in touring and running around, you know, although it's probably different for Steve Miller than it is for me, but uh that seems like an awful lot of work for a 70-year-old dude.
00:38:07.969 --> 00:38:12.610
You know, at some point you'd think, just, you know, can I just retire already?
00:38:12.769 --> 00:38:15.889
But he's out, he's uh I don't even know if he's out still touring or not.
00:38:16.130 --> 00:38:17.969
Steve Miller, it's his birthday today.
00:38:18.210 --> 00:38:20.690
And one more, this one's kind of dark, Brandy.
00:38:20.769 --> 00:38:23.089
You might remember this one, 1982.
00:38:23.730 --> 00:38:37.809
Johnson Johnson began a nationwide product recall in the United States for all products in its Tylenol brand after several bottles in Chicago were found to have been laced with cyanide, resulting in seven deaths.
00:38:37.969 --> 00:38:39.329
You remember the Tylenol scare?
00:38:39.409 --> 00:38:40.210
Was it the capsules?
00:38:40.289 --> 00:38:41.409
I think it was the capsules.
00:38:42.529 --> 00:38:43.009
Yeah, yeah.
00:38:43.250 --> 00:38:44.369
I I remember that.
00:38:44.449 --> 00:38:47.409
And then Chicago's my daughter's favorite place to go.
00:38:47.569 --> 00:38:57.329
So we have gone through the Tylenol tour of where the Tylenol, where it first got found in the Walgreens, I think it was, in Chicago.
00:38:57.489 --> 00:39:03.089
And then, you know, so we she's done quite a bit of uh looking into that that event.
00:39:03.409 --> 00:39:04.049
Oh, that's cool.
00:39:04.210 --> 00:39:04.529
That's cool.
00:39:04.690 --> 00:39:05.650
I I remember that.
00:39:05.730 --> 00:39:07.489
That was that was scary stuff.
00:39:07.569 --> 00:39:10.929
Well, Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag Risk Management.
00:39:11.089 --> 00:39:15.409
How do we I forget the uh the web URL and now I don't have it in front of me.
00:39:15.489 --> 00:39:18.049
How do we how do we get more from you on the interwebs?
00:39:18.369 --> 00:39:21.889
Just uh www.themartinsonag.com.
00:39:22.130 --> 00:39:25.009
Martinsonag.com, everybody.
00:39:25.089 --> 00:39:27.250
Randy, I sure appreciate you taking the time.
00:39:27.329 --> 00:39:37.489
Uh you helped educate me and uh helped me get my thinking straight just a little bit on a Monday here, and I know our viewers appreciate your uh your candor and your uh your wisdom, Horris.
00:39:37.650 --> 00:39:39.089
Good luck with the flannels, buddy.
00:39:39.329 --> 00:39:41.489
And uh we'll check in on you next time we talk.
00:39:41.569 --> 00:39:44.769
It's probably gonna be really cold up in Fargo.
00:39:44.849 --> 00:39:46.690
I look forward to our next conversation, sir.
00:39:47.089 --> 00:39:49.809
And I'll be probably wearing insulated flannel.
00:39:51.170 --> 00:39:52.529
Insulated flannel.
00:39:52.610 --> 00:39:54.610
We'll uh I'm gonna put that in my notes, actually.
00:39:54.690 --> 00:39:56.610
I asked Randy about the insulated flannel.
00:39:56.769 --> 00:39:57.089
Okay.
00:39:57.329 --> 00:40:00.049
Well, thank you everyone for tuning in this afternoon.
00:40:00.130 --> 00:40:03.089
Also, may I just say thanks to Trade the News.
00:40:03.250 --> 00:40:06.769
My squad and I use TradeThe News for useful news.
00:40:07.009 --> 00:40:10.289
Use trade the news for news you can use.
00:40:10.369 --> 00:40:15.250
And may I once again direct you to AgBull.com where you can dig deeper with AgBull Intel.
00:40:15.489 --> 00:40:17.569
Take the markets by the horns with AgBull.
00:40:17.730 --> 00:40:24.929
Visit Agbol.com or call 855-737 Farm for the details, agbull.com.
00:40:25.089 --> 00:40:26.210
Once again, thanks for watching.
00:40:26.289 --> 00:40:27.170
We appreciate you, folks.
00:40:27.329 --> 00:40:28.610
I hope you have a great week this week.
00:40:28.769 --> 00:40:30.369
Jed's back first thing in the a.m.
00:40:30.529 --> 00:40:36.449
to start your Tuesday, and then I'll be talking with filmmaker Sam Goldberg tomorrow afternoon.
00:40:36.610 --> 00:40:40.610
I hope to see you then right here for another edition of Axglock.