Opening Up

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The longest government shut down in history is ending, and
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Democrats are mythed about it.
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This is the DC way. Senator Schumer could have blocked
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this if he had wanted to.
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And Prediction Markets and the election, Chris Gerlocker tells us
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how they fared.
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Prediction markets had a really good twenty twenty five, just
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like the Democrats did.
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Plus in my parting shot getting canceled. Oh the agony,
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and that's what's really bugging me. So let's get started. Hello,
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my friends, I hope this finds you happy and well,
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whomever you are and wherever you are. Happiness is a choice,
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and hope is a decision. It's all how you choose
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to see it, how you choose to feel about it.
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I got a lot to talk to you about in
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this the one hundred and fifty second episode of What's
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Bugging Me on Ricochet. First, some personal news. My final
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show will come out on December eighteenth. After that date,
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my podcast will no longer be produced by my friends
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at Ricochet. I'm so grateful to them for these past
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three years, and I am so grateful to all of
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you for being part of this. These eagles may fly again.
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I'll have more to say on this in my parting
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shot and now for what's bugging me on this vote,
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The a's are two hundred and twenty two than a's
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are two oh nine. The bill has passed night, the
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House of Representatives voted to end the government shutdown after
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forty three days. This after eight Democrats and the Senate
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split from the party and voted with Republicans to do
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the same. And that was the betting on the poly
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market prediction market platform, where the odds were ninety nine
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percent that the government will reopen. And later in the pod,
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you're going to hear from an expert on the prediction markets,
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journalist Chris Gerlocker, on what's next for this new fangled
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glorified gambling pit. First, let's look at the shutdown and
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why it's finally ending. Once the shutdown began, courtesy of
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my senior senator here in New York chucked the undertaker, Schumer,
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the Senate needed sixty votes to reopen, fifty two Republicans
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and no Democrats at first, and the Senate ran through
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fourteen failed votes and forty three days of show uttered government.
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And then Trump doubled down by urging Republicans to end
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the filibusters. That is the requirement that it takes sixty
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votes rather than just fifty one in the Senate to
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end debate and move legislation forward and incourage his compromise.
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Here's President Trump speaking from the State Dining Room in
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the White House during a breakfast meeting with Senate Republicans
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this week.
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Here's some of the things that we pass if we
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terminated the filibuster. Voter ID, no mail in voting, no
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cash bail, no men in women's sports, no welfare for illegals.
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You could go on and on. This is two pages
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of things we'd do if you did that without it,
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I don't know that you pass anything because you can't
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deal with them. They're really irrational, they really are.
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And by this time the President clearly believes he holds
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the upper hand over the Democrats, and so he says
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he's holding firm on the ac.
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The deal is very good. We're not going to be
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giving one and a half trillion dollars to people that
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came in from jails and from the gangs and drug
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dealers and all of these others that they wanted to
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be given healthcare, which would have hurt our healthcare system.
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I hope that we're going to be able to have
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a healthcare where Lindsay and I were discussing it, Jim
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and I were discussing it in Katie. We discussed it.
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We want a healthcare system where we paid the money
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to the people instead of the insurance companies. And I
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tell you we're going to be working on that very
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hard over the next short period of time. Where the
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people get the money.
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We're talking about.
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Trillions and trillions of dollars. Where the people get the money.
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The ACA, that's the Affordable Care Act, which doubled and
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tripled the cost of insurance in the US. Most government
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bills are ironically named. They do the opposite of their title,
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like the Inflation Reduction Act, which flooded the country with
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two trillion dollars an unnecessary aid and fueled inflation like
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crazy instead of reducing it its title implied. Now at
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issue in this fight, the Dems one and a half
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trillion dollars in higher spending, and yes billions would go
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to provide free healthcare to illegal aliens, plus Obamacare thirty
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billion a year and government subsidies to middle class taxpayers
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helped them offset the sky racketing cost of insurance that
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Obamacare was supposed to fix that thirty billions on top
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of one hundred billion more and government spending on Obamacare
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all along. Obamacare was just a trojan horse for government
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control of all healthcare, single payer, they call it. And
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the Republican said, no way, guys, Let's pass this quick
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little spending bill, re up this continuing resolution, and then
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let's talk. And then President Trump this week tilted the
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table just one tweet. He said, the hundreds of billions
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of dollars at Congress now sends over the years to
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insurance companies should instead be deferred and paid directly to
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the people. Insurers are some of the biggest campaign contributors
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to Congress. And just like that, the shutdown ended. It
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was the longest government shutdown in history.
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My follow Americans, our long national nightmare.
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Is over right. I've told you from the start. The
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UTA Party ultimately will settle this because they have to
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do so. They don't want us to realize that we
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really don't need most of the government at all. Did
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you reel from the fallout of the shutdown? I didn't.
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I didn't feel it at all, because eighty three percent
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of government keeps running on autopilot. Even in a shutdown,
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Politicians and news anchors kept saying babies would die, they'd
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starve if food stamp payments didn't go out to forty
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two million people in the country. So first thought, why
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did SNAP spending go up seventy percent and four years
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of Biden it's at over one hundred million dollars a
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year we're spending on food stamps? And why is one
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in eight people in the US on SNAP? What unemployment
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is it at all time lows? Economic growth is it
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a healthy three point eight percent per year lately? And
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let us be clear, No babies have to starve. First,
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No babies have to starve just because government delayed the
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welfare check. I mean, come on, Americans are good kind people.
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There's family and friends and neighbors and churches and schools
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and charities and stealing bread if necessary to keep your
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baby alive. So give me a break. But the Democrat
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reaction to the end of this shutdown, Oh the humanity,
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Oh the horror. Here's Democrat Roe Canna taking aim at
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Chucky Schumer.
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But eight senators who said they consulted him daily when
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vote yes. One of those people is his number two,
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he's not going to do that without Senator Schumer's sign off.
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And then, conveniently, all eight of those senators aren't up
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for re election in twenty twenty six. This is the
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DC way Senator Schumer could have blocked this if he
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had wanted to. And one of the challenges is, in
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addition to the healthcare premiums spikes, it undermines the narrative
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that this was a Trump shutdown. If eight Republicans, eight
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Democratic senators could have ended and we should have kept
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the pressure on.
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And in Illinois, Governor Pritzker is upset that government is
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opening and resuming paid air traffic controllers in the military.
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Apparently here he is the Pritzgierberry doughboy on c SPAN.
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Look, I have enormous respect and always have for Senator Durbman.
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I disagree with his vote. I do not think that
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the eight members of the Senate that voted the way
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that they did should have done that. I think that
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we had an opportunity to make sure that we were
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protecting people's healthcare across the nation. But for whatever reason,
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those members decided to vote the way that they did. Again,
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I'm disappointed. I think that more could have been done here,
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but there is another opportunity in January, and we'll see
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what happened.
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What else were Democrats supposed to do? This is Maine
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Senator Angus King, one of the eight Democrats who voted
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to reopen government. Bernie Sanders call them traders.
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I don't want to land at an airport in the
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United States with a sleepy air traffic controller because they're
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working double shifts. So any good general, if the strategy
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isn't working, you change tactics, and particularly you change tactics
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if your own troops are at risk. And that's really
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what's happening here. There was collateral damage to the American
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people at the same time, the goal wasn't being achieved.
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So we're going to change. We're going to change the narrative.
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And now we have a guaranteed vote within the next
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month on the ACA tax credits drafted by the Democrats
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that the majority leader has agreed to bring to the floor.
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That's a big deal and it gives us a chance
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to put the Republicans to the test. Are you going
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to work with us on this issue or not. In
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the midst of the shutdown, they just weren't talking.
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And here's John Fetterman, the Pennsylvania Senator and stroke survivor,
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getting grilled by Suddy houstin or of the stupider Ladies
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of the View on ABC.
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Governor Gavin Newsom called it pathetic and a surrender. Poll
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after poll found more Americans on both sides of the
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aisle blaming Republicans. Even Marjorie Taylor Green blamed the GOP.
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As you mentioned, Democrats have big wins last week, so
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you had momentum. Why give in now? Why bring a
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butter knife to a gun fight. Are you willing to
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gamble that the golcs will negotiate on healthcare in good
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faith once the government reopens, Because if that gamble is wrong,
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half a million Pennsylvanians that you represent, their healthcare cost
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will skyrocket. If you are wrong, and I believe.
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You are wrong, Well, first of all, you MTG is
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quite literally the last person in America that I'm going
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to take advice or to get their kinds of my.
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Leadership and values from.
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And now if Democrats are celebrating crazy pants like that,
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then that's on them. And now I don't need and
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I don't need a lecture. I don't need a lecture
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from from whether it's Bernie or the governor in California,
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because they are representing very deep blue blue kinds of
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populations and a lot of those things, a lot of
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those things were part of the extreme. And I'll remember
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what really needs to win, to win the big win
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is involving my state and other states and those things.
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And why have we arrived here after the election a
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year ago. We want to forget, we got to forget
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some of the things that cost us that election are
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now for me. It's like, that's why I'm trying to
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remind people that kinds of the extreme newism, we can't
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return to those kind of things and realize we need
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to find a way forward. And I would like to
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rather than cite MTG, I'm going to cite one of
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the new governor elects saying that my election is not
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a green light to continue this shutdown.
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Who would a funk at John Fetterman, the new hero
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of the Democratic Party, and he reminds us that it
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was Democrats who had set an expiration date for these
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Obamacare subsidies way back when. This is from NPR.
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You know, it's really about our bigger priorities, and now
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in a longer conversation. Here remind us Democrats designed those
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text credits to expire at this year's Democratic Party. That's
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not something they're taking away. They're saying, we can have
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a conversation to extend them, and I do hope we should.
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And I think many of their constituents are going to
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be impacted too, and that's why I think that's a
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way forward to find that without dropping our entire country
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into this kinds of chaos.
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Yet, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, he says this never really
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was about health care at all. There was an underlying
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motive at work here. This is Bessant on Wednesday morning
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on Fox News.
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It's the Democrats tried to stop President Trump. They couldn't
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stop him in the courts, they couldn't stop him with
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the mainstream media. So they shut down the government and
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they've taken the mask off. Ezra Clined in The New
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York Times two yesterday actually said this was never about healthcare.
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This was about President Trump and his totalitarianism. So they
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were willing to cost the government tens of billions of dollars.
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That the economy was in a great place, three point
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eight percent growth last quarter, tracking very well this time.
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I think we're going to accelerate into twenty twenty six.
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But they've caused a hiccup.
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Here trying to stop Trump. It was about opposing Trump,
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just like everything else in the Democrat Party these days.
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They can't quit him. They need him. Hating him gives
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them reason to live. Then, when we come back, Chris
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Gerlocker joins us to talk about the prediction markets and
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the election. How they do.
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I'm Greg Corumbus. Join Jim Garrity of National Review and
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me each weekday for the three Martini Lunch Podcast. We'll
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give you the good, bad, and crazy news of the
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day and lots of laughs too. Find us right here
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on the Ricochet Audio work at ricochet dot com or
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wherever you get your podcasts.
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All right, now, let's talk to Chris Gurlocker. He is
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a journalist who covers the prediction markets and he works
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for Prediction News, a brand new publication that just rose
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up months ago to cover this booming business. Thanks for
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being with us, Chris, I appreciate it. Now, first, let's
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just start with the election that just happened twenty twenty five.
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I saw that, for example, poly Market was giving mom
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Donnie an eighty eight percent chance of winning, and indeed
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he did win quite handily. What do you think overall
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of the performance of poly market and others regarding these elections?
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Prediction markets had a really good twenty twenty five, just
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like the Democrats did well a week ago. Now, Calcy
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at least all the major elections and the state wide
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elections that they had on their markets, and poly market
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did great as well. But many of these were also
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pretty straightforward to call.
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Yeah, now you've got poly markets, is that the biggest one?
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Poly Market's the biggest one right now. CALSHI is the
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largest regulated one in the United States right now.
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And that's KLSHY or I I I and they're the
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US concern, whereas poly market is based overseas.
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Where they're based in New York, but they operate overseas.
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Cool. And then give me a third big one that
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we should know about in this prediction market.
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Thing predicted would probably be the other one predicted.
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Huh. All right, so you think they all did pretty well,
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and yet it sounds like you're kind of pulling a
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little credit away from them, Chris, because you're saying, then again,
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the races were so decisive and so wide anyway that
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it was easier to predict somehow.
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Sure, I mean, if you go back to twenty twenty four,
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Trump had a sixty forty edge over Harris in the
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weeks leading up to the election, and to me, that
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passed the gut check. I mean, Trump is scandal proof.
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He's bold in that way, and that's an enormous advantage
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in especially October, right before the election. So to me,
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that passed the gut check. But the elections also, or
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the markets also, I think gave him only a twenty
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percent chance of winning the popular vote, and of course
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he did win it in twenty twenty four, So there
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are some harder calls that you know, you have to
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make there in those kinds of elections instead of these
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smaller off years where you know, Democrats have, you know,
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this advantage going in with both the government shut down
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and the fresh round of anti Trump sentiments. So again
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they had a great night, not to take that away
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from him. But a better test is going to be
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twenty twenty six, and that's where you're going to see
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whether the volatility of a prediction markets works against the
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markets in some of these smaller house races.
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Yes, Now do they go that well granular? How small
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of a race do they go on the betting markets?
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Could you bet on the New Jersey governor race in
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the Virginia governor race on poly Market? But could you
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bet on a town council race.
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I think the smallest you can get is a house race,
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So you're going to get down to individual house districts.
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But I want to go looking for your school board
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elections on Polymarket or Calci.
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Right, right, there's not enough upside there in terms of
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the number of people who want to bet. And this
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is after all a business. Now with these prediction markets,
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do you think that the people who are making bets
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they're not betting the way they vote. It is not
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a poll of voters predicting voter outcome, and yet it's
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just people betting who they think is going to win.
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Right right.
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One of the there's this phrase that gets thrown around
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a lot skin in the game. The idea is you're
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the one who gets punished if you're wrong. So it's
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your money, it's your loss if you don't call a
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race correctly. I mean I lost fifty bucks on Harris
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winning the election last year. We all saw how that
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went so h you know, I ate that one. But
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Trump said fat shot or ozebic in September and I
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won fifty seven dollars, so I came out ahead. We
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figured it out.
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But wait, there's prop betting on these prediction markets. It's
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the outcome of an election with there's a will Trump
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say something?
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There are I love the Trump mentioned markets. He you
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can go back and look at his previous speeches and
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what's being talked about right now and get an idea
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of what he might say. But he's a reliably strange
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and unpredictable speaker, and so if he goes off on
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a tangent, you know, one of those twenty percent or
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fifteen percent strikes can hit and you can you can
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win big.
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Well, tell me what markets you've bet on or what
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kinds of things people can bet on. I don't know
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about this at all. My gosh, that's fascinating. Oh I've
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betting in the prediction markets.
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Go ahead, Yeah, well I was in man. I mean
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we've got the traditional your traditional derivatives, you know, types
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of contracts. So you got what's the end interest rate
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going to be? Is the fag going to raise them?
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What's GDP growth going to be this quarter some of
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those more traditional financial economic metrics. Since last fall, you've
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got political outcome, so you've got elections, not just US elections,
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not just margin of victories and key races. You've also
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got foreign elections. So I think as we're recording, there's
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a bunch of money coming in on the Chilean election
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coming up right now. Oh yeah, the Oblivion election was big.
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A lot of those. You've got the entertainment and culture markets.
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So who's going to win the Grammys, What's going to
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be Game of the Year. I mean these get huge
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and granular.
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Yeah, But to tell me more about Trump, did you
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actually place a bet on something?
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Trump would say, yeah, I bet on Yeah, I bet
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on Ozembic. I think Ozmbic and Fat Show were the
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same strike and I got in on that one. I
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think it was like at twenty thirty cents a contract.
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I only put ten bucks in. I'm still trying to
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figure out whether I can make money doing it realistically,
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but you know that. I mean that paid out at
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about five to one, a little over five to one,
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so I see. And the mayoral the first mayoral debate, yeh,
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you know Bill Ackman was really low. I think I
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got him in that twenty thirty cents range as well,
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and he came up. I mean, you know it's a
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race against you know, anti establishment Mom Donnie versus you know,
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huge donor backed Cuomo and Sliewah. And you know, of course,
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how are the billionaire donors not going to come up
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in that debate? So there were some there are some
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things like that where you can come out ahead well
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on some of these real niche topics.
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Right, So in an election where it's lopside and you
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realize Mom Donnie's going to win, and then the outcome,
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you know, Cuomo, even if you'd gotten every single vote
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that went to Curtis Sleewah in my vote was one
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of them, even if he had received every single one,
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he still would have lost by a couple of percentage
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points to Mom Donnie. So in an election like that,
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you got instead have prompt bets on on other little
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things about that election instead of the outcome.
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Yeah, the margin of victory was big, and it's still
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going on. I mean, if you watch the some of
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the big trader streamers, who are you betting on this live? Uh,
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they're still waiting to see whether he's going to win
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by at least nine percent, to see who pays out.
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Because there's a what do you know what the odds
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are on that by any chance?
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If they are right, let's see they are. They are
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narrowed down, so with the margin of victory markets, you
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have strikes on different brackets. So it'll be like six
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to eight percent will be one bet, and then like
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nine to ten or nine to eleven percent will be
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another bet, and it'll it'll end up somewhere in that range,
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and you'll get a whole probability distribution of what's likely
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going to happen. Yeah, I think it's like a forty
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five to fifty five split between I think it's six
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to eight and nine to ten.
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Okay, now working on that right now, There seems to
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be a key difference, doesn't there, Chris, between a Gallup
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poll of likely voters talking about whom they favor versus
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and they're not putting any skin in the game, they're
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not betting any money, they're answering, and this betting market instead.
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Do we know yet, do we have a definitive verdict
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on which one is more accurate? I think polls have
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been just famously wrong.
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They have been They've been wrong in certain races. The
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problem is the certain races were the biggest ones. They've
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spent three presidential cycles underestimating Trump's victory. And there was
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a user on poly market this pass fall. He plays like, oh,
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we get this right. It was ten something millions, this
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eight figure bet on Trump to win on polymarket, and
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poly market does not have a position limit in those markets.
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So if you make an enormous wager, you can single
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handedly bring the price of that contract up. Yeah, so
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he moved it by like four percent by himself. And
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you know, everyone's in mainstream media, in alternative media, we're
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all looking at you know, who is this guy? Why
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is he placing this bed?
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Is it real?
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Is it not?
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And this was a French trader, this wealthy individual commissioned
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his own polls and he asked voters, what are you
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going to vote for or who you're going to vote for?
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And who is your neighbor going to vote for? Okay,
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and a lot of people said, oh, they said whoever
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they were going to vote for, but they said, oh,
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I think my neighbor's going to go for Trump. And
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what he did a lot of people lie about who
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they're going to vote for to posters because they don't
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want to be judged, even.
427
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Though especially Trump so unrestates Trump.
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Right, the shy Trump voter is still alive and well
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twelve years later and he's you know, but he detected
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that mismatch between pollsters modeling a competitive race for Harris
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and where the electorate was, and he put money on
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it and he won, like thirty forty million dollars won.
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That is that is incredible. You know the name of
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that guy, by any.
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Chance now he's I mean it was like Freddy nine
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ninety ninety nine or what it was a pseudonym online,
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but you know, he's a wealthy French trader that's been
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interviewed by the Wall Street Journal as well.
439
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Right now, this idea that one guy betting a big
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sum can actually move those markets, even though it's just
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one guy. Are we to the level yet where there
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are betters that are trying to rig those odds in
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some way and benefit off of that by doing bets
444
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like this. Are we getting to the point where these
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markets are themselves a little manipulated and rigged somehow?
446
00:25:35.440 --> 00:25:38.960
We're not there yet. Calshi has twenty five thousand dollars
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position limits for retail traders. So if you and I
448
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or you or I go place a trade on CALSH,
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00:25:44.079 --> 00:25:46.079
you know we can max out at twenty five thousand
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in a market, and.
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I'm not going to move the whole market.
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Right, I mean, that's to prevent the kind of price
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movement on poly market. The other thing too, there's there's
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a piece of nuance that gets missed about market manipulation.
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So a lot of people think, well, this guy moved
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the price, manipulating the market. Not necessarily. There have been
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New York firms who have been taken to court by
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the CFTC saying, hey, we saw that you traded on
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this contract so that it would move to this certain price.
460
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Prove to us that you're not going to just dump
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all your shares at the artificially high price. Show us
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that you actually mean it. And they did, and so
463
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they weren't charged with market manipulation. So if you really
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believe that's where the number should be, you're not necessarily
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manipulating the market.
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Even if you do, just that's that way to put
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it there.
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Okay, it just has to be in response to market movements.
469
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So you know how at least my limited understanding of
470
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baccarat is that there's rows of people betting on people
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who are at the table actually playing and what the
472
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next card is going to be, whether it's a nine
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or something, background and kind of betting on the betting.
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Are we yet at that rid level for prediction markets
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where there's betting allowed on the betting, betting on the
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outcome or something to where you can make money in
477
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that second way, the way of baccarat players betting on
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the betting.
479
00:27:03.279 --> 00:27:05.160
You could do that on a free to play platform
480
00:27:05.200 --> 00:27:08.359
like Manifold, So if somebody wants to track a user
481
00:27:08.359 --> 00:27:11.039
in real time, you could create your own on a
482
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platform like that. You're not seeing a trader performance on
483
00:27:16.519 --> 00:27:19.880
a platform like polymarketer Calhie. Yet what you do see,
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you do see a lot of or some copy trading.
485
00:27:22.799 --> 00:27:26.279
So you're seeing traders who think they're really savvy, and
486
00:27:26.359 --> 00:27:28.680
they'll look at the leaderboards and see how the most
487
00:27:28.720 --> 00:27:31.920
profitable traders are doing, and they'll just trade what they're
488
00:27:31.960 --> 00:27:35.720
trading with mixed results because those are time sensitive judgments
489
00:27:35.759 --> 00:27:37.359
you have to make. So if you make your trade
490
00:27:37.400 --> 00:27:41.319
too late, the sharp traders already they've already made their
491
00:27:41.319 --> 00:27:43.559
sharp trade. You may not get the price that makes
492
00:27:43.599 --> 00:27:45.200
you profitable. So that's a mixed bag.
493
00:27:45.839 --> 00:27:51.000
Huh. Now it seems like calshie being the only betting
494
00:27:51.039 --> 00:27:52.119
market in the US.
495
00:27:52.319 --> 00:27:52.519
Right.
496
00:27:52.799 --> 00:27:55.279
How did mailage to get that first mover status there?
497
00:27:55.359 --> 00:27:59.319
Imagine did it just pull an uber and started without
498
00:27:59.359 --> 00:28:02.839
regulatory proofal or did it start five years ago? For
499
00:28:02.960 --> 00:28:05.119
all the hurdles it took to get approved.
500
00:28:04.759 --> 00:28:08.200
It actually was about five years ago. So they spend
501
00:28:09.319 --> 00:28:11.720
the Calhi founders spent about two years just trying to
502
00:28:11.720 --> 00:28:15.240
get their DCM license, the Designated Contract Market license from
503
00:28:15.279 --> 00:28:19.799
the CFTC, and their whole their whole strategy has been
504
00:28:19.799 --> 00:28:23.960
shaped around fitting within the CFTC regulations. They really want
505
00:28:24.000 --> 00:28:26.200
to make this work under the regulated scheme, and so
506
00:28:26.240 --> 00:28:30.759
they finally launch in twenty twenty. They start offering their
507
00:28:30.880 --> 00:28:34.359
kind of traditional financial and some weather markets as well.
508
00:28:34.440 --> 00:28:37.279
That's the other one they were known for at the time.
509
00:28:37.480 --> 00:28:40.880
They've been trying to launch election markets before the twenty
510
00:28:40.880 --> 00:28:44.319
twenty two midterms and they submitted and they submitted those
511
00:28:44.319 --> 00:28:47.039
contracts ahead of time to the CFTC. Asked the CFTC,
512
00:28:47.279 --> 00:28:50.839
hey will you approve these? Well, CFTC said no, and
513
00:28:50.839 --> 00:28:52.720
then they said no again the next year, and so
514
00:28:53.599 --> 00:28:56.519
cal She sued their regulator in twenty twenty three, caw
515
00:28:56.559 --> 00:28:59.359
She took the CFTC at a core and said, hey,
516
00:28:59.400 --> 00:29:02.960
this is not a prohibited category of contract. This is
517
00:29:03.000 --> 00:29:06.440
an election outcome. And the CFCC said no, it's not.
518
00:29:06.559 --> 00:29:09.319
This is gaming. This is election betting. And so they
519
00:29:09.440 --> 00:29:10.839
fought it out in court for a year, and the
520
00:29:10.880 --> 00:29:15.039
courts ruled in Calsh's favor because elections are not themselves games,
521
00:29:15.359 --> 00:29:18.640
even though they're contests of others, it's not games in
522
00:29:18.680 --> 00:29:20.559
the way that you know, a roulette wheel is a
523
00:29:20.559 --> 00:29:23.440
game or a slot machine is a game. Right, So
524
00:29:23.640 --> 00:29:26.119
that's how we got election betting, and that was the
525
00:29:26.160 --> 00:29:30.200
really big explosion of you know, prediction market. Mainstreaming wasn't
526
00:29:30.240 --> 00:29:32.839
twenty twenty four, but the industry, I mean, cal she's
527
00:29:32.920 --> 00:29:35.359
you know, five or six years old, and the industry
528
00:29:35.400 --> 00:29:36.640
itself goes back decades.
529
00:29:37.480 --> 00:29:39.200
Well where else should we take this? Because I have
530
00:29:39.240 --> 00:29:41.599
another question? But what else do you want us to know?
531
00:29:42.839 --> 00:29:44.440
One of the phrases. I can't tell you about how
532
00:29:44.480 --> 00:29:46.680
the wisdom of crowds actually works because it's not just
533
00:29:46.759 --> 00:29:49.240
bringing a bunch of people together and you bring ten
534
00:29:49.279 --> 00:29:52.519
thousand people together who think the same way, well, you
535
00:29:52.640 --> 00:29:53.119
just have group.
536
00:29:53.160 --> 00:29:53.279
Thing.
537
00:29:53.400 --> 00:29:55.200
That's no good. That's not a wise crowd at all.
538
00:29:56.359 --> 00:29:58.160
But if you want an actual wise crowd, you need
539
00:29:58.200 --> 00:30:02.119
four things. Diversity of opinion. If there's you know, an
540
00:30:02.160 --> 00:30:04.359
absolute lunatic on one side of a bet, you need
541
00:30:04.400 --> 00:30:06.599
another lunatic to cancel that guy out. And when you
542
00:30:06.640 --> 00:30:09.640
have that happen at scale and across the whole range
543
00:30:09.680 --> 00:30:13.279
of reasonableness, that's where you get, you know, the accurate
544
00:30:13.519 --> 00:30:17.839
crowd predictions. You need independence. Everybody needs to be making
545
00:30:17.880 --> 00:30:20.400
their own judgments. You can't just be copying everybody else.
546
00:30:21.880 --> 00:30:23.839
It needs to be you need to be bringing your
547
00:30:23.839 --> 00:30:28.000
own specialized knowledge. That's the third thing. You know, whatever
548
00:30:28.079 --> 00:30:31.240
local knowledge you have about local conditions that might affect
549
00:30:31.279 --> 00:30:33.160
a market, you need to bring that in as well.
550
00:30:33.519 --> 00:30:35.960
And finally, you need the aggregation tool, which is and
551
00:30:36.039 --> 00:30:38.319
that's what a prediction market is. It brings all those
552
00:30:39.079 --> 00:30:41.960
pieces together. So you don't have a wise crowd just
553
00:30:41.960 --> 00:30:44.519
because you have a group. You need a sufficiently large
554
00:30:44.519 --> 00:30:48.759
and independent thinking group to really produce something that's useful
555
00:30:48.759 --> 00:30:49.480
as a forecast.
556
00:30:50.160 --> 00:30:52.400
Now what about you know, when we had Jared Diamond,
557
00:30:52.440 --> 00:30:55.400
the baseball and gambling writer for The Wall Street Jerald
558
00:30:55.440 --> 00:30:57.640
came on a few weeks ago. Delightful guy. I followed
559
00:30:57.720 --> 00:30:59.680
up and had had lunch with him in a diner
560
00:30:59.720 --> 00:31:02.359
and Glynn right before he went to the courthouse for
561
00:31:02.400 --> 00:31:06.960
another indictment of another gambling ring, and Jared, who's actually
562
00:31:06.960 --> 00:31:10.319
working on a book on all this right now, came
563
00:31:10.359 --> 00:31:12.839
out and he said, you know, you know what, just
564
00:31:13.680 --> 00:31:16.720
don't bet on this stuff. Just don't understand it. Over
565
00:31:16.759 --> 00:31:19.519
the long run, the house always wins. You will not
566
00:31:19.759 --> 00:31:22.960
make money betting on sports. And I'm wondering if the
567
00:31:23.000 --> 00:31:26.559
same thing applies to these markets, these prediction markets. What
568
00:31:26.599 --> 00:31:28.440
do you think the house always wins?
569
00:31:30.119 --> 00:31:33.759
Well, there's not a house necessarily winning. So on an exchange,
570
00:31:33.839 --> 00:31:37.599
it's peer to peer. So somebody, if you're betting sixty
571
00:31:37.640 --> 00:31:41.440
cents yes on the Broncos winning, that's because somebody has
572
00:31:41.440 --> 00:31:43.880
already bet forty cents that no, they're not going to win.
573
00:31:44.519 --> 00:31:48.319
And sometimes that peer is another person. Often it's Susquehanna
574
00:31:48.440 --> 00:31:53.400
or an actual large market maker. But the exchange makes money.
575
00:31:53.480 --> 00:31:56.559
If you know the exchange is active, they make money
576
00:31:56.559 --> 00:32:00.319
off transaction fees. So you're the price of are all
577
00:32:00.319 --> 00:32:03.920
set by the market, and if you know how the
578
00:32:04.720 --> 00:32:06.480
price movements are going to go, or have a good
579
00:32:06.519 --> 00:32:08.839
idea of that, you can find an edge. And you
580
00:32:08.839 --> 00:32:13.640
can find an edge in some of these different niche subjects.
581
00:32:14.039 --> 00:32:16.160
The problem is not everybody is going to be a
582
00:32:16.200 --> 00:32:19.240
successful trader. In fact, most people are still going to lose.
583
00:32:19.279 --> 00:32:21.759
It might be at a somewhat lower rate than sportsbooks,
584
00:32:21.799 --> 00:32:24.880
but most of the people using these prediction market platforms
585
00:32:24.880 --> 00:32:28.279
they're speculating, they're gambling, They're not doing all of their research.
586
00:32:28.359 --> 00:32:30.759
They're just you know, I think Trump's going to win.
587
00:32:30.839 --> 00:32:32.599
Let's go ahead, drop some money on it. Why not?
588
00:32:33.640 --> 00:32:36.720
You know, things like this. So there's not a house
589
00:32:36.759 --> 00:32:38.519
that you have to beat on in exchange. But there
590
00:32:38.880 --> 00:32:40.680
are a lot of things to be concerned about when
591
00:32:40.680 --> 00:32:43.079
it comes to especially young men, you know, in a
592
00:32:43.319 --> 00:32:45.440
you know, amid a spiritual crisis in gambling.
593
00:32:45.880 --> 00:32:48.160
Well, I find your stuff to be really interesting, man.
594
00:32:48.279 --> 00:32:51.200
Good luck is with the great beach you got there
595
00:32:51.640 --> 00:32:54.680
at the at the new and the growing publication. You
596
00:32:54.799 --> 00:32:56.839
got anything else you want to leave us with any
597
00:32:56.880 --> 00:32:58.000
final thoughts.
598
00:32:58.400 --> 00:33:00.079
Yeah, if you want to follow me on action and
599
00:33:00.119 --> 00:33:02.799
follow me at Girlocker se follow us on Exit Prediction News.
600
00:33:02.839 --> 00:33:05.200
I've also got a podcast where I interview people in
601
00:33:05.240 --> 00:33:07.680
the prediction market industry to get a real shape of
602
00:33:07.720 --> 00:33:10.079
what's going on there, so you can find that on
603
00:33:10.119 --> 00:33:11.519
YouTube Atprediction News as well.
604
00:33:12.319 --> 00:33:14.799
Nice. Nicely done, my friend. Thanks so much, and have
605
00:33:14.880 --> 00:33:15.759
a glorious day.
606
00:33:15.640 --> 00:33:29.599
Chris, Thank you man, you too. Hi, this is a Culter.
607
00:33:29.839 --> 00:33:33.079
Welcome to my Ricochet podcast.
608
00:33:32.640 --> 00:33:35.079
And Coulter every week on Ricochet.
609
00:33:35.400 --> 00:33:38.240
You're home to center Right conversation. Hey, that was pretty
610
00:33:38.240 --> 00:33:50.240
good and now for my parting shot getting canceled. Oh
611
00:33:50.319 --> 00:33:53.000
the agony. As I told you at the start of
612
00:33:53.039 --> 00:33:55.599
the show, the final episode of What's Bugging Me on
613
00:33:55.640 --> 00:34:00.160
the Ricochet platform will come out on December eighteenth. That
614
00:34:00.240 --> 00:34:03.839
gives us just four episodes to go on Ricochet, which
615
00:34:03.880 --> 00:34:06.359
will no longer produce my show after that. I totally
616
00:34:06.359 --> 00:34:09.480
one hundred and fifty six episodes in the can. I
617
00:34:09.519 --> 00:34:12.280
owe him big time, and I thank the folks at Ricochet.
618
00:34:12.280 --> 00:34:15.000
They put out over one hundred and fifty episodes over
619
00:34:15.039 --> 00:34:17.559
three years free of charge because they liked the cut
620
00:34:17.559 --> 00:34:20.960
of my jib. I know of other people paying fifty
621
00:34:21.039 --> 00:34:24.039
thousand dollars per year to produce a weekly podcast that
622
00:34:24.119 --> 00:34:28.760
gets fewer downloads than mine. So I'm grateful to Ricochet
623
00:34:29.079 --> 00:34:32.639
for doing this for me, and I think Ricochet subscribers
624
00:34:33.320 --> 00:34:36.440
and its owner Charles C. W. Cook, who's been a
625
00:34:36.480 --> 00:34:39.880
guest on my show. And I'm especially grateful for having
626
00:34:39.920 --> 00:34:43.639
worked with my Ricochet producer, Brian Johnson. This show wouldn't
627
00:34:43.679 --> 00:34:47.199
have existed without Brian's talents and stitching it together and
628
00:34:47.239 --> 00:34:49.599
helping me rethink a thing or two when I might
629
00:34:49.599 --> 00:34:53.719
have gone too far. I owe him forever. When he
630
00:34:53.760 --> 00:34:55.960
gave me the notice about this, he told me it
631
00:34:56.000 --> 00:34:58.679
was hard to do because Brian felt like this was
632
00:34:58.880 --> 00:35:04.159
his failure too, which was touching until I realized that
633
00:35:05.960 --> 00:35:08.880
I wasn't looking at this as a failure at all
634
00:35:09.320 --> 00:35:13.960
until now. Thanks for that jarring dose of reality. And
635
00:35:14.039 --> 00:35:17.159
that's okay, my friends, and I say I wasn't looking
636
00:35:17.199 --> 00:35:20.119
at this as a failure because how many other people
637
00:35:20.159 --> 00:35:23.719
are able to put out a weekly podcast for three
638
00:35:23.920 --> 00:35:27.519
years running and command an audience of even a few
639
00:35:27.559 --> 00:35:31.840
thousand faithful fans. I was lucky. This is a triumph,
640
00:35:32.400 --> 00:35:34.400
and this illustrates one point I've been making to you
641
00:35:34.440 --> 00:35:37.119
guys over and over again on What's spugging me. We
642
00:35:37.280 --> 00:35:41.239
cannot change the setbacks that hurt us in life, but
643
00:35:41.320 --> 00:35:44.880
we can change how we choose to view them. And
644
00:35:44.960 --> 00:35:50.039
I view this, like I said, as a triumph. But yes,
645
00:35:50.079 --> 00:35:53.000
my exit is a failure. Also, if I had landed
646
00:35:53.039 --> 00:35:56.239
more listeners and drawn more attention, my show wouldn't be
647
00:35:56.360 --> 00:36:01.039
ending on December eighteenth, someone else's would. If I'm able
648
00:36:01.079 --> 00:36:03.360
to find another producer to put the show together for me,
649
00:36:03.559 --> 00:36:06.840
these eagles will fly again. The trouble is is this
650
00:36:06.920 --> 00:36:09.639
could cost me a thousand bucks of more every week
651
00:36:09.719 --> 00:36:13.360
to bring in one hundred bucks in AD revenue. And
652
00:36:13.480 --> 00:36:17.800
even if I'm unable to find a new surgeon to
653
00:36:17.880 --> 00:36:21.559
stitch this show together, You're still he will hear from
654
00:36:21.559 --> 00:36:25.360
me on the X platform and on my YouTube channel.
655
00:36:25.920 --> 00:36:29.320
I'm not dead yet this and Monny Python song says
656
00:36:30.159 --> 00:36:35.079
still Comma, this one hurts. It's hard to hook listeners
657
00:36:35.079 --> 00:36:39.119
when five million other podcasts are competing with you. But
658
00:36:39.239 --> 00:36:42.119
the real reason what's bugging me maybe going off air is.
659
00:36:43.639 --> 00:36:43.719
Me.
660
00:36:45.039 --> 00:36:50.599
It's all on me. This is my fault, this is
661
00:36:51.280 --> 00:36:54.559
my failure. If I were a bigger name, if I
662
00:36:54.599 --> 00:36:57.679
had earned a larger following, if I were really on
663
00:36:57.719 --> 00:37:00.480
the a list that I so desperately wanted to join
664
00:37:00.960 --> 00:37:05.000
for the last thirty years, we would have thrived, and
665
00:37:05.079 --> 00:37:09.400
What's Bugging Me would have hundreds of thousands of listeners,
666
00:37:09.920 --> 00:37:13.159
which we deserve to have, because, ma'am, this show is good.
667
00:37:13.400 --> 00:37:15.639
It is better than a lot of cable news shows,
668
00:37:16.159 --> 00:37:19.760
smarter and funnier. And I'm proud of the product we
669
00:37:19.800 --> 00:37:22.239
put out, even if it turned out to be favored
670
00:37:22.679 --> 00:37:31.079
by a smaller, very influential, highly intelligent audience, which brings
671
00:37:31.119 --> 00:37:35.400
me to you guys and gals out there, and how
672
00:37:35.440 --> 00:37:38.119
I am so very grateful to all of you for
673
00:37:38.239 --> 00:37:41.159
listening to What's Bugging Me. I have stories to tell
674
00:37:41.679 --> 00:37:44.480
and I'm dying to have someone listen to them, and
675
00:37:44.519 --> 00:37:47.239
you guys and gals did this for me, so I
676
00:37:47.320 --> 00:37:51.280
owe you too, and I thank each one of you
677
00:37:51.559 --> 00:37:53.760
and every one of you for being part of this.
678
00:37:54.960 --> 00:37:58.840
I love you, man, and have a glorious weekend. It's
679
00:37:58.960 --> 00:38:07.119
up to us to make it so it. Ricochet joined
680
00:38:07.159 --> 00:38:07.840
the conversation