Why We Avoid Uncertainty (And How That Gets In Our Way)

Why do we cling to what’s familiar—even when it’s not working? In this episode we explore why humans are wired to avoid uncertainty, and how that shapes our decisions and our parenting.

We discuss the Ellsberg Paradox, which explains why we often choose “the devil we know” over potentially better—but unknown—options. Whether it’s staying in a situation that no longer serves us, avoiding difficult conversations, or overthinking every possible outcome, our brains are constantly trying to reduce uncertainty—even at a cost.

We discuss how the brain’s fear center (the amygdala) reacts more strongly to ambiguity than to actual risk, triggering stress responses like anxiety, overthinking, and catastrophizing. This helps explain why uncertainty can feel so overwhelming—even when nothing is actually wrong.

We discuss Dr. Rue Wilson's notion of “toxic time travel" and how our search for reassurance pulls us out of the present into either mentally replaying the past or imagining worst-case futures, keeping us stuck in cycles of worry.

We also explore how this shows up in parenting. Kids who resist new situations, struggle with transitions, or seem overly anxious may not be reacting to real danger—but to uncertainty itself. Understanding this can help us respond with more empathy and curiosity rather than frustration.

Finally, we share practical strategies for managing uncertainty—for ourselves and our kids:

• Separating real risk from fear of the unknown
• Using curiosity instead of rumination
• Reality-checking anxious thoughts
• Focusing on what’s within our control
• Grounding ourselves in the present moment

Here are links to some of the resources mentioned in the episode:

• ambiguity aversion
• Tara Cousineau for Harvard Graduate School of Arts and Sciences: Coping with Uncertainty
• Lauren Arcuri for the American Physiological Society: The Brain's Response to Uncertainty and Ambiguity

• Gretchen Rubin: How to Make Tough Decisions: Choose the Bigger Life
• Dorie Clark on Instagram: Your Brain Is Lying to You About Risk

What Fresh Hell is co-hosted by Amy Wilson and Margaret Ables.

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