Phillip: We are back, impressing everyone and our Singapore supporters with a second recording in a row. Sticking back to the commitment of recording for the NFL season. Philip call, Ken call, Connor Lucas cannot make it. His wife is having kidney stones or something. Ken told me about it and I wasn't listening. But hopefully she's well and they can take a trip or whatever's happening.
Ken: Connor's fine. He's he's not gonna hear this, but it'll be fine. no.
Phillip: Yeah.
Ken: They're all good. They're just worried about taking a trip. So no. All good over here. I'm so excited that we're doing this two weeks in a row for the first time since probably like week thirteen last year, something like that.
Phillip: You know, s two small children. It's a lot different for getting to nine o'clock. Like anyways. so here we are. We are going last week we did like a fantasy football or a mock draft, right? Give you high level takes on our first gut reactions to the season. Now we will actually be organizing and sorting players. So first group is the quarterbacks. we're not doing it on fantasy value though, because that's boring and you have like a million lists available to you. So we went with franchise value. lot more for debate, like how long will someone be relevant, how good will they be? I have my list, Ken's pretty much gonna critique it and what I think is gonna happen is I'm super biased to guys that were good like four years ago.
Ken: Well, also this is not dynasty fantasy value. This is just for your team. Who do who would you want as your quarterback? So
Phillip: Lot of subjectivity to those words. and you'll you'll hear. So here we go. Alright, so I'm sharing. If you hate AI, you're gonna hate what we're what I am showing because it was an thanks to Claude, a generated application for this very thing.
Ken: Because we could have made a list of s and a spreadsheet with names on it, but this one kinda looks
Phillip: Do you see all these stats that no one's going to read on the screen? This is the kind of value that people want us to provide.
Ken: I also can't see the stats on the screen, so that's great. no,
Phillip: Can I zoom in? Does that help you?
Ken: irrelevant. I don't need them. I need names, so because if I look if I look too
Phillip: Do you do you think stats play the game?
Ken: closely at that QB rating, I'm gonna really like Drake May in your first group. So no. No, I don't want that.
Phillip: These are the latest years, obviously. You know, if you blend the last three, it makes a big difference. But starting off, I call the number one blank checks. These are guys, it doesn't matter how much they ask for, you give it to them, and you know they will be providing surplus value to you. What that means is you don't need to worry about, ooh, do I need to make sure he has a wide receiver one? Like these are the guys, perennial MVP, Super Bowl, a you know, all pro first teamers. and I am not moving off Patrick Mahomes. I feel like, you know, you look at the five last you know, last five years, the body of work, and it's like, yeah, tons of Super Bowls, tons of winning. the stats aren't there to support an like MVP stuff, but end of the game is is what it comes down to. And like this is still the guy I want. So do you have any problems with Mahomes at one? For the record. Allen at one I think is an acceptable adjustment or replacement. I could argue that like they deserve to be in their own tier, but I think right now they're down to earth and close enough to these other guys to not separate them.
Ken: I actually kinda like Lamar in the that next tier up. just it I okay, it's hard to put him with the other two, just with the playoff success needs to be a part of it. And that's why Pat Mahomes is above Josh Allen for me. It's cause he just keeps on beating Josh Allen in the playoffs pretty much all the time. but for Pat Mahomes, they really have I mean, it was what, two years back where they just l Put so much into the defense. They had a great defense and they were like, hey, Pat Mahomes, don't lose these games for us. They haven't had running backs. They are what they're doing to like what they did with Kareem Hunt the last two years is kind of hilarious, where they're really like leaning on this guy who has nothing left in the tank. And their whole offense has been just injured fast guys and Travis Kelsey, who's being way too old for I mean, any tight end. I think that I I I actually don't mind the pieces around him this year. They're like over she rice doesn't look that great. every time he's been on the field, he's looked just fine with Pat Mahomes. I think that Kenneth Walker giving him that an actual weapon out of the backfield. I mean they haven't had something like this since geez. Well probably Kareem Hunt before all the issues. Yeah.
Phillip: Take one. Yeah.
Ken: So I think that that really is gonna open up a lot of for the offense. And there was some stat where I don't I don't think anyone or they had like no rushes for over 30 yards last year, period, or something. Or that from
Phillip: Mm-hmm.
Ken: a running back. And I thought that was absolutely insane. They're gonna be a little bit more balanced and I think that that's gonna help out with like just Pat Mahomes in general. He is going to pass the ball more. He's going to be limited in rushing because he's coming back from the ACL slash LCL. And I don't care. I he'll be able to do it because he's Pat Mahomes. End of story.
Phillip: Pat Mahomes has one speed and it is one step faster than you. Doesn't matter who you is. Like it's incredible
Ken: Yeah.
Phillip: every time he runs. but to your point on Lamar, so my big complaint here is he is reliant on his athleticism. He's a phenomenal quarterback, like outside of it. Like last year he couldn't run as much because of injury, and we saw he was still very successful. But when you are being compared to the rest of these guys, I think he's going to age less gracefully. So if this was like who's the quarterback that you expect to win a Super Bowl in the next three years, I think Mahomes, Allen, Jackson are probably the guys that you would rank up there. but because I am saying franchise value and I'm taking into account years four, five, six, seven, you know, I think Burrow just ages more gracefully as long as he can get on the field. Like I it's super ironic that I'm saying the guy who's always hurt will do better as he gets older. but I think It's just been unfortunate and I really hope the Bengals are trying to throw solutions and money at their problems. It it hasn't been working. But if it clicks once, I mean, we saw a Super Bowl run when they were underdogs when they were nine and seven. and then we saw just the absolute beatdown of Josh Allen in the playoffs, a year or two later when Burrow and the Bengals were healthy. So that's why I got Burrow up there at three. I still think When he's healthy and the Bengals are healthy, even if defense ranks thirtieth, he will go score to score toe to toe with all these guys. And that's partially because of, you know, the hundred million dollar two hundred million dollars or whatever it is they have at wide receiver.
Ken: So to your point on Lamar, the very interesting thing and a little bit where I'm gonna disagree with you, one, every time he has not produced, it has been one hundred percent correlated to injury. and he his completion percentage has been high because they they just put him in such good spots in terms of you have to defend the run, you have to especially it's like there's Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, that like RPO is just so dangerous. I mean, you you can just it it's odd that your biggest breakaway, your biggest like long play threat is can be a rush for for a team, but they absolutely have that threat with them. But an interesting thing with Lamar, if you watch him, I don't think that he's gonna be that barred as athleticism like decreases because yes, he's very quick, but he very, very rarely ever gets to top speed. He does not play at his top speed. He his his elusiveness, yeah, that I mean that's obviously gonna go down, but I think that it it's just so good. He does a really good job of staying healthy. Last year was an exception, but the two years before that, he had like potentially the best, the statistical best two-year just stats of like any quarterback ever. He should have won back-to-back MVPs. They gave it to Josh Allen 'cause they really just don't like giving people back to back MVPs. I statistically he's in the regular season he was better than Josh Allen.
Phillip: I and I a hundred percent agree. Like like he was, but just projecting it going forward, like Joe Burrow is the style of quarterback who ages better at thirty four five six. And again,
Ken: Correct and pocket.
Phillip: they this is three versus four. Like if
Ken: Mm-hmm.
Phillip: I I it is not like Burroughs miles ahead in my opinion. yeah.
Ken: Mm. I I think Joe Burrow has a whole I mean, the big difference between him and Justin Herbert is one has weapons, has always had weapons, and the other one, or and one also has some playoff success. And Justin Herbert just has I mean, one of the more embarrassing playoff losses in NFL history really.
Phillip: Yeah, and and the bottom line, like playoff success is what we're here for. We've switched roles here.
Ken: I probably should put that a little more, but I would actually I would have Justin her my god, yeah, you're right. A little bit. I have to find a way to say how much I love Justin Herbert.
Phillip: Well he's not even on the list and we will cover him shortly.
Ken: my point is he should be up here, by the way. I have him up above Jaden Daniels and Drake May. And I really have no so Drake May is the the bottom of this list at six,
Phillip: Mm-hmm.
Ken: and he has done absolutely everything you would you've asked of him so far. He flashed enough as a rookie and made a leap for a huge leap forward as a second year. I just it it was pretty incredible how they had both a bad or a very weak schedule in the regular season and a very weak schedule somehow in the playoffs to make it to the the Super Bowl. But I should probably have him hire I mean he has good accuracy he has good average depth of target. He has a very good long ball with this accuracy, which is something you don't quite see. He also didn't get much of like run support. He didn't have receivers. He did a lot for that offense. And I mean he made Mac Collins look, you know, better than he is. He made Hunter Henry like step up. He made players around him better. And I that's obviously something I like from a quarterback. It's just that they had such a weak schedule. I think they was it man, I I can't remember how long, but like statistically they had the weakest schedule that's been in the NFL in the last twenty years by a bit. And th they were up a lot. They had the really the biggest support he had was a very, very good defense that made bad offenses look really bad. they were just ones that they they had really good opportunistic like turnovers and a lot of their score or you know, their games were one sided. And I mean that's not not a bad thing for a quarterback. I guess he just hasn't been like super tested. And now this is the first year where like there are expectations on him. So I'm really interested to see how he is. With that being said, I'm clearly skep skeptic of him. He's getting drafted too high generally in in the fantasy drafts. and I'm I'm typically staying away based on based on that, but I should probably have him higher.
Phillip: So my thing with May is everything you said is right. What he but the way he made bad receivers look so good, like that receiving core was terrible last year. I mean, you're talking Kayshawn Booty was their best receiver. after Diggs got hurt or dinged up like halfway through the year and he went from a huge snap and target share down to like almost nothing. like Pop Douglas, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper. And he moved the ball around. he just he like he just did really good winning football stuff. and the reason there is like to me he is barely in this group is because his playoffs were so awful and he is so lucky that he made it where he did. Like the only reason we aren't talking about how he was a turnover machine and a problem in the playoffs is because CJ Stroud couldn't liter literally couldn't catch a football like during a snap
Ken: Mm.
Phillip: or anything. But to Jaden Daniels, I believe in Jaden Daniels, the miracle run he took with the commanders two years ago, where I think they upset the Rams. and I can't remember who else they beat in the playoffs. It might have been like Buck beat the Buccaneers, beat the Rams, lose to the Eagles. and I just thought it was fantastic. Everything he did. overshot expectations and then last year they came in and they thought, we're gonna buy him all these players and it went so poorly. Everyone got hurt. It
Ken: Yeah.
Phillip: was it was just a complete catastrophe. but his rookie season was special. and I think it was more impressive than what May or Caleb Williams did. All three phenomenal, obviously. But I am just a personal believer in Jaden Daniels. I think he could have like He he he can just be the king of the NFC. Right. As of right now, I don't see like Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, those are the guys to compete with. And I think he has the physical tools and the winning to it to just be like, Yeah, that's that's the guy who has the secret sauce and some re f for some reason is just suc successful. We'll see if that's true though, because man, I don't think the commanders have a good team around him. And they are in a tough division.
Ken: I yeah, I I was gonna say this is like Jaden Daniels has to put on a Superman cape because I I mean a lot of mediocrity in their running game. I I do like Chicaconquo. I don't care that they got Stefan Diggs. I just don't. I think he's a a fine like player to have, but I don't think he's a difference maker. And the really only only difference maker they have on their offense is Terry McLaurin and That's just not enough. So
Phillip: their starting receiver opposite McLaurin before they got digs was Traylon Burks. So I think it is a massive upgrade to get someone who can run and catch a football.
Ken: I like Traylon Burks, man. That guy, if if no. Well
Phillip: I hit the back button. I hope I didn't ruin everything.
Ken: if injuries are off in Madden, I love Traylon Burks, man. I I think he's pretty good.
Phillip: All right.
Ken: now, Trelon Burks will forever be remembered for being traded for AJ Brown. And
Phillip: Yeah.
Ken: I don't think that that quite worked out. Yeah.
Phillip: That was the biggest mistake. I traded it first and we got AJ Brown's replacement. His prototype coming in, right? Or his player comp was AJ Brown. And then they're like, oof. That that didn't that did not end well.
Ken: Yes, just like AJ Brown. Yes.
Phillip: All right. playoffs annually is my grouped two tier. these guys they are good winning quarterbacks who happen to be on good teams, and I expect them. You know, if we have five more the next five years to be in the playoffs like three to four times each. I don't know like injuries, other things can derail them one time, but they absolutely have just shown like they're winners. That's the bottom line. so starting off Caleb Williams and Jordan Love. So Jordan Love is the analytical king. I think he was better regular season when healthy last year than Caleb Williams. And I think in the head to head matchup, he actually played better. His team just missed field goals to win. I think there's three missed field goals by Brandon
Ken: Yeah.
Phillip: McManus. and instead it like left the door slightly cracked
Ken: I mean
Phillip: and Caleb Williams took advantage.
Ken: Weren't they up weren't they up like fourteen in the fourth quarter or something like that? Yeah.
Phillip: It was like twenty-one to three or something, twenty-one to seven, and off a missed field goal, the Bears just came stream steaming back. With that said, Caleb Williams has the upside. He has the name, he has the draft capital. He has really the situation that they're giving him in Chicago's fantastic. And Jordan Love, despite being the analytic king, just leaves a bad taste in my mouth. in terms of I don't know if he's the guy I would trust to win any game. He seems like even Matt LaFleur doesn't put full faith into him and they, you know, play a little bit more conservative than they should. with if you had, you know, an elite Burrow Mahomes kind of guy. So We will see. They they now trimmed down their offense and they said one problem they had was like a receiver cycle where they were just, you know, six guys they liked, so everyone was playing different positions, rotating a lot, and they're like, all right, we got our XYZ now. it's gonna be clean, it's gonna be crisp, it's gonna be defined, everyone's gonna have their roles. And so we will see if Jordan Love can take advantage. But if the if the coach is not giving him free reign to start lighting up scoreboards, I'm just not gonna trust him. As much as Caleb
Ken: Yeah.
Phillip: Williams. He is still number like nine on this list, or eight.
Ken: So Jordan Love, I mean, he's probably gonna hand the ball off to Josh Jacobs for like so many inside the ten like rushing touchdowns. I don't know how many he had last year, but it it was something crazy. it they just moved away from the pass, and I just don't know if that's a you know, a systematic issue with LaFleur or if it's something else. But you know
Phillip: Before you continue, just because it popped in my head, I don't want to forget it. Ryan Tannehill was in the similar vein where it's like the eye test for Tannehill, right, was here and the analytic numbers were way up here and everyone credited like Derrick Henry. But then it's a similar offensive scheme with LeFour and a similar it's a good run game, but it's not obviously Derrick Henry. So just wanted to throw that in there.
Ken: I like Tannehill, man. Tanne Tannehill was a a decent QB there in Tennessee for but that for one of the best, most boring teams around Tennessee Titans, man. now, Caleb Williams there's everything around him. I mean, he has the one issue with like for fantasy for the Bears is I think there's just too many mouths to feed. And they got another good tight end, in the draft this year. They they they're gonna use two good two good running backs. They, you know. Roman Doon's a Luther Burden. That's that's been a big argument in our group chat. Well it's not everyone says Luther Bord Burton, but
Phillip: Yeah.
Ken: he has everything around him. And I feel like there especially last year they were winning in spite of Caleb Williams and not with him. and he definitely looked like the biggest limiter now in the playoffs. He did some incredible things that I mean that 40 yard touchdown pass. We like I don't think anyone Yeah, that one. But
Phillip: For two it's two the two yard completion.
Ken: it's forty yards. That's forty air yards, I guess.
Phillip: Yeah.
Ken: but man, it I don't know. Like he he it's just a combination of making these plays that not ever I mean, most players cannot, and looking being like, How are you doing this? Why did you mess this up again? and I gotta tell you him and I'm gonna s I could say the exact same thing with Jalen Hurts, where it's a great system, good team, you know, good support, good offensive line, good run game, balance. And I just think that like those guys have lost their teams games, like specifically, like the op sort of the opposite of the whole like Drake Mib, like, I'm making these people better. It's they're just like hard to watch. So I have to say Jalen Hurts last year had two halves of a football where he scored he had zero completions and zero pass yards. So no, I'm not a huge fan of Jalen Hurts. So I know, I know he's had some amazing playoff success. I can't I can't put him in this tier. He was that bad. He scared AJ Brown outside out of Philly. No.
Phillip: The thing like it's so hard because Jalen Hurts is fantastic, like the end of the second quarter, the end of the fourth quarter. Like, whenever it's clutch time, that man transforms and can throw dimes. It's really the regular stuff that he is just so terrible at. And it it's like spent it's such a stark contrast on winning. Like the guy he doesn't throw for over thirty five hundred yards, not even close. Like that's his peak. He's thrown for 3,000 yards the last two years, which is a joke when you have Devonta Smith, AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley, Dallas Scoutter. Like he had a plethora of weapons. And it just the offense doesn't click. It doesn't move regularly. But at the same time, like if there's
Ken: He just wins.
Phillip: just yeah. And I know that's so opposite for things I normally pick, but when you do it so regularly and so successfully, and then we the bottom line I told you before we started, it's like, yeah, the Super Bowls. The man averages 350 yards a total offense and three and a half touchdowns a Super Bowl. It is outrageous how well he plays. so I just, you know, I I had to reward it.
Ken: Okay, he's not even the best Philadelphia Eagle quarterback in the Super Bowl in the last ten years. Nick Foles, baby. No do not disrespect Nick Foles.
Phillip: What? Okay, that's fair. there is actually like like there's a lit right that's so there's a legit argument that like the best Philadelphia Eagles quarterback of like the tet the last ten, fifteen years is Carson Wentz. Like in terms of like a pure statistical
Ken: Yeah. Mm-hmm.
Phillip: for his time of a on the team. he just happened
Ken: Mm-hmm.
Phillip: to be so bad in like one and a half years they kicked him off the team. Alright, so let's get to your guy, Justin Herbert. I feel like if I had to carve these up, he would be on an island between the three ahead of him and the two behind him. and the difference being the ones ahead Williams and Love are a little bit younger, or there's been more playoff success. The only thing holding him back has been like there's been flash plays, the arm has been amazing, the numbers have been there, but they were there as rookie year and then they plummeted. And I know he carried the Chargers on what was a dead offense last year. but can we actually see the peak that is I'm a 14 win team, I'm 35 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. That has not been shown, right? So I I want I wanna see a good year out of him that is not his rookie year, which was his best statistical year. At least I think so still.
Ken: Yeah, but so much has just gone so wrong for him around his play. And and he's had games where they've asked him to do crazy things and he's done it, and then there's been games where they're like, Hey, just don't lose us this game and he has lost it for him. So he I mean, you talk about doing everything last year. I mean, absolutely. They had no run game, they had no line, their receivers they were a bunch of slight average to slightly above average group. No disrespect to Keenan Allen. I Keenan Allen. but nothing. N nothing really around him. And he completely carried this team. Now I have I people say it all the time, but I think this is the year where I make up a firm stance on him where it's like, hey, we'd like your offensive coordinator. Like your like the passing weapons, we like the run game. You have a lot going for you, you have good defense. There's there's no excuse for you not to do this. Like you've you've been say you know, we've been saying that you need this around you, you have it now. Let's see what you got.
Phillip: Okay. I agree. And if he crushes it, like he's a guy that could jump up because he is still only twenty seven years old. Just got his big contract. And I was the only thing I will add is year two was his best statistical year, but year one and two, like by far the best. And as he's been more successful as in terms of wins, his performance has gone down. Again, not to his fault, but I wanna see those connected. Jalen Hurts, it's very clear. If he is good, it's all good. moving on. So we have Brock Purdy and CJ Stroud round rounding out this group. CJ Stroud is probably the one under the most questions because the win like it has just not been there in terms of success in the playoffs. or he had a successful playoffs, but man, did he look terrible? He fumbled snaps left and right. The numbers weren't there. He did miss Nico in the second round, but it just was still disappointing in general. And then as for Brock Purdy, the exact opposite where, you know, he was under question so much for relying on his team. And then last year, everyone gets hurt. And he is still showing up week after week and being extremely successful, getting the wins. I don't know if his arm can throw more than forty yards, but I think he is absolutely like discounted playmaker where he can make moves, get and get the ball to his players in the clutch, and then Kyle Shanahan can take care of the rest so he he has that feather in his cap. but I think last year was the year that Brock Purdy really showed like, I don't need my players. I just I just need to know where to go with the ball and on the few times I need to make a play, I'll do it.
Ken: Yeah, but it's still Kyle Shanahan's system and like I I we just really love him. The the Kyle Shanahan and it it does make a difference. and it's it's one of those things where I mean it's slightly getting better weapons. I I did like David Montgomery there, but I mean i you gotta give him something. He he really hasn't had much. I like Nico, but the the offensive line, like it it's it's too big of a gap, not have an offensive line.
Phillip: He he is definitely the guy that like we we I think I said it last week. It's like just bet on his offensive coordinator to have a heartbeat this year and it will solve a lot of problems. All right. These next two I'm bringing up and I'm showing together. and that's because it this these two are highly dependent on where you are as a franchise, for where I would put these quarterbacks. So it's no excess value. These guys, you're gonna pay them top dollar. And they need stuff around them. Now Matt Stafford is in this group because he's going to retire like next year. And he should win a Super Bowl this year with the Super Rams. But it is the Super Rams, and I'm not giving him full credit for that in terms of like what I would give to if Burrow won with the Bengals. So Stafford is like a star on the no excess value. But like we look at Dak, Trevor Lawrence, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Bo next, Jarrett Goff. I don't think there is a lot where people are like, you know what? That's the guy I need, and I'm going to be a playoff team. That's it. the other group we just showed, continually in the playoffs. so that's why, you know, these guys aren't there. And then cheap and young, this section is literally just like If you have a good team, I don't want this guy to be my or you know, if you if I have a full roster, I don't want this guy to be my quarterback. He's cheap, he needs to develop, and like Trevor Lawrence has a better chance to win a Super Bowl with a good Jags roster than Shuck, Ward, Dart, or Mendoza. However, I do still like all those guys, and I think they are they have solved quarterback problems for teams. So starting there. with the concept of each. Does that make sense? You on board with those? The high level groups.
Ken: I mean, I I completely get it. I I would have a pretty hard tier break between I would have Stafford and Dak in the next one up. And yes, I know Stafford's gonna retire here, but I care more about the near future. I Stafford has one maybe they can convince him for one more after this, depend depending on how they do. I mean his his arms look great. He's he's a tough guy. Mem do you remember last year talking before the season of like, man, they're having these back procedures and he's getting these injections and people like, he can barely walk and I was like, Matt Stafford's gonna play as many games as he needs to and clearly wasn't an issue.
Phillip: Some smart people on this podcast said at forty to one he's a great MVP bet.
Ken: I don't know. I don't know if that one was posted or not. It's hard to say.
Phillip: Fair enough.
Ken: But I also have Dak just a a little bit higher, as well. I mean he's
Phillip: He's the top of the list.
Ken: I I think he's closer to those like perennial quarterbacks where they just have drastic like meltdowns and not make it. he I he's always had weapons in Dallas, but he he has, I mean, year in year year out, like really like produced like higher volumes and yeah, probably a lot of that has to do with the defense or lack thereof there. But I mean, I I think that he's done enough to separate himself from Trevor Lawrence and Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield.
Phillip: thing is just like I don't see the winning. Like when I say that when it's like a coin flip game, it's
Ken: They do.
Phillip: like I I I know it's not the but when it's a coin flip game, I know it's not the Cowboys. Like that's the bottom line. Like I feel like that's pretty consistent and some and something I I I've ridden with
Ken: Okay. Yeah. Yeah.
Phillip: for a while where it's like week one last year. I remember I said bet the Cowboys. It's a seven and a half point spread they're underdogs. They're gonna keep it close enough to they're gonna lose by set they're gonna lose. Like money line is a huge it's a steal, cause they're not winning week one. And they didn't. They kept it it was a great game though, but it's it's just like all that ick is way too much for me.
Ken: He he's in that list of like if week eight, if we look and say, wow, look at this. X player is leading the league in passing touchdowns and passing yards, it's like Herbert, Stafford, Dak, every one of those they could do and they'd be like, yeah.
Phillip: Yeah.
Ken: And you know, a little bit further down, like Goff too. I I kind of have him lumped in there, but that just has to do more with the the the system.
Phillip: so let's take let's take a look. These these next three are very similar though. Lawrence, Darnold, and Baker, right? Top three picks. At least I think so. Darnold was the top three. now Darnold and Baker have moved, but like there was a lot, these guys were big names coming into the NFL. Lawrence is with his main team and you know, he's Sunshine. He was supposed to do all these great things. And last year the Jags had, I think, a run that shocked us in general, like thirteen and four. That team didn't seem like a thirteen and four team at all. great, great play calling to design and coaching from Liam Cohen. Darnold obviously a magical Super Bowl run, after a magical year with the Vikings. And Baker has made a name for himself and is now in contract disputes with Tampa Bay. So like when I look at these guys, it's just so hard for me to think like Darnold, take him and put him on to the Chiefs and that team I would expect to be successful or the Bills. Cause he what he really needed, like the Vikings ecosystem of young players playing well and having great options. and he got that in Seattle last year too. and then same thing for Baker Mayfield, like I don't know. It's just when I look at all three of these guys, I think they're just all super interchangeable and I don't really care. Do does does any stand out for you? They're surprisingly close in age, I think. Yeah, okay.
Ken: I mean Darnold's kinda on that list of like there's it's like he's done everything that you've expect or asked him to do, and for some reason I'm just still not giving him that respect. But you can see, I mean, teams can do bad in really good situations in Minnesota. turns out JJ McCarthy and Carson Wentz just not it. in
Phillip: Whoa, dude, Carson Wentz looked good. Who did they they they they played someone that I think it was had to was it was probably the Eagles
Ken: Browns.
Phillip: and now it doesn't matter. And they went toe to toe like Carson Wentz went toe to toe, and I think if it wasn't for a TJ Hawkinson touchdown overcalled, they would have beat the Eagles. anyways. I thought
Ken: Mm-hmm.
Phillip: I I personally think I wish they had Carson Wentz this year healthy.
Ken: I I I like Kyler Murray. I Kyler Murray's pretty underrated now because of just how bad last year went. And last year was the only year that's gone bad for quarterbacks in Minnesota. but no, I agree. There I mean there's a lot of interchangeability. By the way, the Baker cycle, we're back at it. We're back at the top. He's got the chip on his shoulder, he has something out to prove, he's gonna look great.
Phillip: in on that actually if you if you want to talk fantasy like I I think I said it on our draft thing like a Meka Obuka is my guy I I think he's gonna be gre I think he's a great receiver period I think he's gonna be a great player he needs to be a stat pattern
Ken: I I think there's good value for him. Chris Godwin and I I think what's his name, McMillan got hurt. Yeah, Jalen McMillan. I
Phillip: Yeah, J Jalen McMillan.
Ken: think he got hurt though, but we'll see.
Phillip: But no, I think they will be so good. And if you trade them at week six, that is gonna be so smart. Cause Baker will have gone five and one, four and two, and will start to cool off. Now, here is the trap. Bo Nicks. When you look at Bo Nicks, there's winning, there's solid stat performances. I mean he was in the AFC championship due to like if you if you like Brandon Cook's not holding on to the ball is like the difference between like advancing and not. the eye test just does not match anything. And I think a lot of NFL people like I I think I'm so low on Bo Nicks and Jordan Love are the two that it seems like I am consistently low on relative to other people. do you think he's appropriate here up down? Would you do you think he should fall into the cheap and young tet like category? What's going on?
Ken: It's tough. I have him just a touch lower. I have a I can't put Jared Goff below Bo Nicks. And part of it is just the absolute duds that come around and he he does rely a lot on mobility that he like would that will fade eventually. And a bit of it's just been being around a team that has ri ridden an elite defense, but they hit they've he's looked good. He it's he Kind of like the whole Drake Mae thing. He's done everything that we've asked him to. He he he's there's been not much more that you would, but then like he plays the the Raiders and wins like what s nine six or something like that with a bunch of field goals and just like a little bit less horrible play than the worst team in the league. And I mean statistically he he's been good, but I I think a lot more of that is just written like if if he had if he was on Tampa Bay and they had a crap defense, I don't think that you'd see anything close to to what he has. So I think that's a bit of Sean Payton, a bit of a good defense, and more smoke and mirrors than anything else.
Phillip: So Jared Goff is here. If you want to talk about it, I don't. I think he is
Ken: No.
Phillip: I think he is the bottom of the list though of like guys I would want as my starter, and that is literally just because of like the good is amazing, but the bad is so bad. Like you break his pocket, you put him outside in the cold, all these like one dimensional, like, is this a yes or no answer? And it's like, all right, if it's no, get Goff's having a bad game. If it's yes, Goff is good. and it's like that fragility, I just don't want it. And that's why he's like here. And again, I would probably look to do what the Rams did, where I'm just like, he's my quarterback. You can have him. He can be your starter, but I'll still need to pay you for like the premium product that was Matt Stafford at that time.
Ken: Yeah. I mean, product of the system as well, where like they're really lucky to have Ben Johnson there for so long. I don't think it's a Dan Campbell mastermind whatsoever. I think that I mean Jameer Gibbs, Jamison Williams, Amon Ross St. Brown, even Samuel Porter, I'm gonna lump him in as like a top five just like athletically like gifted tight end where bottom of the top five, but still. I mean, just phenomenal players all around. And he's like he's functioning well. So you could certainly do worse than Jared Goff.
Phillip: all right, so cheap and young now. really ranking last year's quarterbacks and this year's. So if Mendoza's just at the bottom, that's like a default rookie drop. That is not me saying he's worse than these. It's like I don't want to argue over where the rookie who we haven't seen anything from goes. So he goes at the bottom. he is marked essentially in this group as a solution at quarterback, but I'm not going to if you say anywhere, I'm just like, sure, we'll see what happens. in terms of the other three, unless you unless you have something on Mendoza.
Ken: No, I mean my I gotta tell you from this group I would I would take Cam Ward.
Phillip: So that that was gonna be the question. It's like, I love Jackson Dart. I think Dart and Scataboo are two phenomenal players in general, like to watch and be a New York ethos. And they go great in a hardball system with toughness and grit. I just don't buy either. I just don't buy the success and the magic that he was pulling off, but they were still losing every game. You gotta go, all good.
Ken: Mm-hmm. Sorry guys. Gotta I gotta head out early, but no, I don't believe in Jackson Dart. I don't believe in Mr. Concussion. I I I'd have to see
Phillip: Let's
Ken: it.
Phillip: last note, Tyler Shuck came on last year at the end of the year. You hit you still have Cam Ward over him though.
Ken: I just think Cam Ward had a whole lot less to work with. Like Tennessee was an absolute dumpster fire, but showed enough at the end of the year where it's like, I want to see more. And Tatochuk,
Phillip: Gotcha.
Ken: a little bit older. He he looked fine. I just think that Cam Ward longer year, over the next three years, I'm more interested in Cam Ward. I think that the ceiling's higher. That's all. They they're really close though.
Phillip: All good, go take care of Connor. yeah. The only thing I will say beyond what Ken said is I got struck at first and I thought what we saw from New Orleans to end the year was much, much more impressive than what we were seeing from the other teams. Like Cam Ward started to piece some stuff together, but it just wasn't as impressive. And that could be due to weapons and everything, but I think Shuck with the Kellen Moore system with lots invested around him will have a better opportunity to thrive than Cam Ward. and I think Cam Ward has a good shot to be a good NFL quarterback. but again, he was really raw coming in to begin with. And if it's not nurtured correctly, will definitely cause lots of problems. So the remaining groups, like there is really nothing to say. you might just disagree with the listings, but one year hold, these guys have the right to play quarterback for one year for you and might make something happen. but I doubt it. Aaron Rodgers is the closest to being successful regularly. Daniel Jones, he's should be happy he got his money and played as well as he did. I don't think he's the solution in Indy. I think they're gonna need to draft a guy. Bryce Young, Kyler Murray, both just They they just leave things to be desired when you watch them play. they have some wow, they have some pop, but you need more, especially with the level of quarterback play. And then go to the draft, like these guys, the team is going to be bad if you use their starting quarterback and it's not gonna end well. I'm sorry, you're competing for like a top end pick. So Browns, Giants, Miami, get ready to see if you will be taking Arch Manning. All right, and that's the list. Here's a quick summary again of what we had. Left to right will be the actual rankings used. it's exciting to to start it off. We o always have fun doing things like this. And curious how it plays out during the year. So please like, comment, and subscribe. Let me know what you think is right and wrong. yeah, look forward just to seeing how this plays out.
Ken: Connor's fine. He's he's not gonna hear this, but it'll be fine. no.
Phillip: Yeah.
Ken: They're all good. They're just worried about taking a trip. So no. All good over here. I'm so excited that we're doing this two weeks in a row for the first time since probably like week thirteen last year, something like that.
Phillip: You know, s two small children. It's a lot different for getting to nine o'clock. Like anyways. so here we are. We are going last week we did like a fantasy football or a mock draft, right? Give you high level takes on our first gut reactions to the season. Now we will actually be organizing and sorting players. So first group is the quarterbacks. we're not doing it on fantasy value though, because that's boring and you have like a million lists available to you. So we went with franchise value. lot more for debate, like how long will someone be relevant, how good will they be? I have my list, Ken's pretty much gonna critique it and what I think is gonna happen is I'm super biased to guys that were good like four years ago.
Ken: Well, also this is not dynasty fantasy value. This is just for your team. Who do who would you want as your quarterback? So
Phillip: Lot of subjectivity to those words. and you'll you'll hear. So here we go. Alright, so I'm sharing. If you hate AI, you're gonna hate what we're what I am showing because it was an thanks to Claude, a generated application for this very thing.
Ken: Because we could have made a list of s and a spreadsheet with names on it, but this one kinda looks
Phillip: Do you see all these stats that no one's going to read on the screen? This is the kind of value that people want us to provide.
Ken: I also can't see the stats on the screen, so that's great. no,
Phillip: Can I zoom in? Does that help you?
Ken: irrelevant. I don't need them. I need names, so because if I look if I look too
Phillip: Do you do you think stats play the game?
Ken: closely at that QB rating, I'm gonna really like Drake May in your first group. So no. No, I don't want that.
Phillip: These are the latest years, obviously. You know, if you blend the last three, it makes a big difference. But starting off, I call the number one blank checks. These are guys, it doesn't matter how much they ask for, you give it to them, and you know they will be providing surplus value to you. What that means is you don't need to worry about, ooh, do I need to make sure he has a wide receiver one? Like these are the guys, perennial MVP, Super Bowl, a you know, all pro first teamers. and I am not moving off Patrick Mahomes. I feel like, you know, you look at the five last you know, last five years, the body of work, and it's like, yeah, tons of Super Bowls, tons of winning. the stats aren't there to support an like MVP stuff, but end of the game is is what it comes down to. And like this is still the guy I want. So do you have any problems with Mahomes at one? For the record. Allen at one I think is an acceptable adjustment or replacement. I could argue that like they deserve to be in their own tier, but I think right now they're down to earth and close enough to these other guys to not separate them.
Ken: I actually kinda like Lamar in the that next tier up. just it I okay, it's hard to put him with the other two, just with the playoff success needs to be a part of it. And that's why Pat Mahomes is above Josh Allen for me. It's cause he just keeps on beating Josh Allen in the playoffs pretty much all the time. but for Pat Mahomes, they really have I mean, it was what, two years back where they just l Put so much into the defense. They had a great defense and they were like, hey, Pat Mahomes, don't lose these games for us. They haven't had running backs. They are what they're doing to like what they did with Kareem Hunt the last two years is kind of hilarious, where they're really like leaning on this guy who has nothing left in the tank. And their whole offense has been just injured fast guys and Travis Kelsey, who's being way too old for I mean, any tight end. I think that I I I actually don't mind the pieces around him this year. They're like over she rice doesn't look that great. every time he's been on the field, he's looked just fine with Pat Mahomes. I think that Kenneth Walker giving him that an actual weapon out of the backfield. I mean they haven't had something like this since geez. Well probably Kareem Hunt before all the issues. Yeah.
Phillip: Take one. Yeah.
Ken: So I think that that really is gonna open up a lot of for the offense. And there was some stat where I don't I don't think anyone or they had like no rushes for over 30 yards last year, period, or something. Or that from
Phillip: Mm-hmm.
Ken: a running back. And I thought that was absolutely insane. They're gonna be a little bit more balanced and I think that that's gonna help out with like just Pat Mahomes in general. He is going to pass the ball more. He's going to be limited in rushing because he's coming back from the ACL slash LCL. And I don't care. I he'll be able to do it because he's Pat Mahomes. End of story.
Phillip: Pat Mahomes has one speed and it is one step faster than you. Doesn't matter who you is. Like it's incredible
Ken: Yeah.
Phillip: every time he runs. but to your point on Lamar, so my big complaint here is he is reliant on his athleticism. He's a phenomenal quarterback, like outside of it. Like last year he couldn't run as much because of injury, and we saw he was still very successful. But when you are being compared to the rest of these guys, I think he's going to age less gracefully. So if this was like who's the quarterback that you expect to win a Super Bowl in the next three years, I think Mahomes, Allen, Jackson are probably the guys that you would rank up there. but because I am saying franchise value and I'm taking into account years four, five, six, seven, you know, I think Burrow just ages more gracefully as long as he can get on the field. Like I it's super ironic that I'm saying the guy who's always hurt will do better as he gets older. but I think It's just been unfortunate and I really hope the Bengals are trying to throw solutions and money at their problems. It it hasn't been working. But if it clicks once, I mean, we saw a Super Bowl run when they were underdogs when they were nine and seven. and then we saw just the absolute beatdown of Josh Allen in the playoffs, a year or two later when Burrow and the Bengals were healthy. So that's why I got Burrow up there at three. I still think When he's healthy and the Bengals are healthy, even if defense ranks thirtieth, he will go score to score toe to toe with all these guys. And that's partially because of, you know, the hundred million dollar two hundred million dollars or whatever it is they have at wide receiver.
Ken: So to your point on Lamar, the very interesting thing and a little bit where I'm gonna disagree with you, one, every time he has not produced, it has been one hundred percent correlated to injury. and he his completion percentage has been high because they they just put him in such good spots in terms of you have to defend the run, you have to especially it's like there's Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, that like RPO is just so dangerous. I mean, you you can just it it's odd that your biggest breakaway, your biggest like long play threat is can be a rush for for a team, but they absolutely have that threat with them. But an interesting thing with Lamar, if you watch him, I don't think that he's gonna be that barred as athleticism like decreases because yes, he's very quick, but he very, very rarely ever gets to top speed. He does not play at his top speed. He his his elusiveness, yeah, that I mean that's obviously gonna go down, but I think that it it's just so good. He does a really good job of staying healthy. Last year was an exception, but the two years before that, he had like potentially the best, the statistical best two-year just stats of like any quarterback ever. He should have won back-to-back MVPs. They gave it to Josh Allen 'cause they really just don't like giving people back to back MVPs. I statistically he's in the regular season he was better than Josh Allen.
Phillip: I and I a hundred percent agree. Like like he was, but just projecting it going forward, like Joe Burrow is the style of quarterback who ages better at thirty four five six. And again,
Ken: Correct and pocket.
Phillip: they this is three versus four. Like if
Ken: Mm-hmm.
Phillip: I I it is not like Burroughs miles ahead in my opinion. yeah.
Ken: Mm. I I think Joe Burrow has a whole I mean, the big difference between him and Justin Herbert is one has weapons, has always had weapons, and the other one, or and one also has some playoff success. And Justin Herbert just has I mean, one of the more embarrassing playoff losses in NFL history really.
Phillip: Yeah, and and the bottom line, like playoff success is what we're here for. We've switched roles here.
Ken: I probably should put that a little more, but I would actually I would have Justin her my god, yeah, you're right. A little bit. I have to find a way to say how much I love Justin Herbert.
Phillip: Well he's not even on the list and we will cover him shortly.
Ken: my point is he should be up here, by the way. I have him up above Jaden Daniels and Drake May. And I really have no so Drake May is the the bottom of this list at six,
Phillip: Mm-hmm.
Ken: and he has done absolutely everything you would you've asked of him so far. He flashed enough as a rookie and made a leap for a huge leap forward as a second year. I just it it was pretty incredible how they had both a bad or a very weak schedule in the regular season and a very weak schedule somehow in the playoffs to make it to the the Super Bowl. But I should probably have him hire I mean he has good accuracy he has good average depth of target. He has a very good long ball with this accuracy, which is something you don't quite see. He also didn't get much of like run support. He didn't have receivers. He did a lot for that offense. And I mean he made Mac Collins look, you know, better than he is. He made Hunter Henry like step up. He made players around him better. And I that's obviously something I like from a quarterback. It's just that they had such a weak schedule. I think they was it man, I I can't remember how long, but like statistically they had the weakest schedule that's been in the NFL in the last twenty years by a bit. And th they were up a lot. They had the really the biggest support he had was a very, very good defense that made bad offenses look really bad. they were just ones that they they had really good opportunistic like turnovers and a lot of their score or you know, their games were one sided. And I mean that's not not a bad thing for a quarterback. I guess he just hasn't been like super tested. And now this is the first year where like there are expectations on him. So I'm really interested to see how he is. With that being said, I'm clearly skep skeptic of him. He's getting drafted too high generally in in the fantasy drafts. and I'm I'm typically staying away based on based on that, but I should probably have him higher.
Phillip: So my thing with May is everything you said is right. What he but the way he made bad receivers look so good, like that receiving core was terrible last year. I mean, you're talking Kayshawn Booty was their best receiver. after Diggs got hurt or dinged up like halfway through the year and he went from a huge snap and target share down to like almost nothing. like Pop Douglas, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper. And he moved the ball around. he just he like he just did really good winning football stuff. and the reason there is like to me he is barely in this group is because his playoffs were so awful and he is so lucky that he made it where he did. Like the only reason we aren't talking about how he was a turnover machine and a problem in the playoffs is because CJ Stroud couldn't liter literally couldn't catch a football like during a snap
Ken: Mm.
Phillip: or anything. But to Jaden Daniels, I believe in Jaden Daniels, the miracle run he took with the commanders two years ago, where I think they upset the Rams. and I can't remember who else they beat in the playoffs. It might have been like Buck beat the Buccaneers, beat the Rams, lose to the Eagles. and I just thought it was fantastic. Everything he did. overshot expectations and then last year they came in and they thought, we're gonna buy him all these players and it went so poorly. Everyone got hurt. It
Ken: Yeah.
Phillip: was it was just a complete catastrophe. but his rookie season was special. and I think it was more impressive than what May or Caleb Williams did. All three phenomenal, obviously. But I am just a personal believer in Jaden Daniels. I think he could have like He he he can just be the king of the NFC. Right. As of right now, I don't see like Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, those are the guys to compete with. And I think he has the physical tools and the winning to it to just be like, Yeah, that's that's the guy who has the secret sauce and some re f for some reason is just suc successful. We'll see if that's true though, because man, I don't think the commanders have a good team around him. And they are in a tough division.
Ken: I yeah, I I was gonna say this is like Jaden Daniels has to put on a Superman cape because I I mean a lot of mediocrity in their running game. I I do like Chicaconquo. I don't care that they got Stefan Diggs. I just don't. I think he's a a fine like player to have, but I don't think he's a difference maker. And the really only only difference maker they have on their offense is Terry McLaurin and That's just not enough. So
Phillip: their starting receiver opposite McLaurin before they got digs was Traylon Burks. So I think it is a massive upgrade to get someone who can run and catch a football.
Ken: I like Traylon Burks, man. That guy, if if no. Well
Phillip: I hit the back button. I hope I didn't ruin everything.
Ken: if injuries are off in Madden, I love Traylon Burks, man. I I think he's pretty good.
Phillip: All right.
Ken: now, Trelon Burks will forever be remembered for being traded for AJ Brown. And
Phillip: Yeah.
Ken: I don't think that that quite worked out. Yeah.
Phillip: That was the biggest mistake. I traded it first and we got AJ Brown's replacement. His prototype coming in, right? Or his player comp was AJ Brown. And then they're like, oof. That that didn't that did not end well.
Ken: Yes, just like AJ Brown. Yes.
Phillip: All right. playoffs annually is my grouped two tier. these guys they are good winning quarterbacks who happen to be on good teams, and I expect them. You know, if we have five more the next five years to be in the playoffs like three to four times each. I don't know like injuries, other things can derail them one time, but they absolutely have just shown like they're winners. That's the bottom line. so starting off Caleb Williams and Jordan Love. So Jordan Love is the analytical king. I think he was better regular season when healthy last year than Caleb Williams. And I think in the head to head matchup, he actually played better. His team just missed field goals to win. I think there's three missed field goals by Brandon
Ken: Yeah.
Phillip: McManus. and instead it like left the door slightly cracked
Ken: I mean
Phillip: and Caleb Williams took advantage.
Ken: Weren't they up weren't they up like fourteen in the fourth quarter or something like that? Yeah.
Phillip: It was like twenty-one to three or something, twenty-one to seven, and off a missed field goal, the Bears just came stream steaming back. With that said, Caleb Williams has the upside. He has the name, he has the draft capital. He has really the situation that they're giving him in Chicago's fantastic. And Jordan Love, despite being the analytic king, just leaves a bad taste in my mouth. in terms of I don't know if he's the guy I would trust to win any game. He seems like even Matt LaFleur doesn't put full faith into him and they, you know, play a little bit more conservative than they should. with if you had, you know, an elite Burrow Mahomes kind of guy. So We will see. They they now trimmed down their offense and they said one problem they had was like a receiver cycle where they were just, you know, six guys they liked, so everyone was playing different positions, rotating a lot, and they're like, all right, we got our XYZ now. it's gonna be clean, it's gonna be crisp, it's gonna be defined, everyone's gonna have their roles. And so we will see if Jordan Love can take advantage. But if the if the coach is not giving him free reign to start lighting up scoreboards, I'm just not gonna trust him. As much as Caleb
Ken: Yeah.
Phillip: Williams. He is still number like nine on this list, or eight.
Ken: So Jordan Love, I mean, he's probably gonna hand the ball off to Josh Jacobs for like so many inside the ten like rushing touchdowns. I don't know how many he had last year, but it it was something crazy. it they just moved away from the pass, and I just don't know if that's a you know, a systematic issue with LaFleur or if it's something else. But you know
Phillip: Before you continue, just because it popped in my head, I don't want to forget it. Ryan Tannehill was in the similar vein where it's like the eye test for Tannehill, right, was here and the analytic numbers were way up here and everyone credited like Derrick Henry. But then it's a similar offensive scheme with LeFour and a similar it's a good run game, but it's not obviously Derrick Henry. So just wanted to throw that in there.
Ken: I like Tannehill, man. Tanne Tannehill was a a decent QB there in Tennessee for but that for one of the best, most boring teams around Tennessee Titans, man. now, Caleb Williams there's everything around him. I mean, he has the one issue with like for fantasy for the Bears is I think there's just too many mouths to feed. And they got another good tight end, in the draft this year. They they they're gonna use two good two good running backs. They, you know. Roman Doon's a Luther Burden. That's that's been a big argument in our group chat. Well it's not everyone says Luther Bord Burton, but
Phillip: Yeah.
Ken: he has everything around him. And I feel like there especially last year they were winning in spite of Caleb Williams and not with him. and he definitely looked like the biggest limiter now in the playoffs. He did some incredible things that I mean that 40 yard touchdown pass. We like I don't think anyone Yeah, that one. But
Phillip: For two it's two the two yard completion.
Ken: it's forty yards. That's forty air yards, I guess.
Phillip: Yeah.
Ken: but man, it I don't know. Like he he it's just a combination of making these plays that not ever I mean, most players cannot, and looking being like, How are you doing this? Why did you mess this up again? and I gotta tell you him and I'm gonna s I could say the exact same thing with Jalen Hurts, where it's a great system, good team, you know, good support, good offensive line, good run game, balance. And I just think that like those guys have lost their teams games, like specifically, like the op sort of the opposite of the whole like Drake Mib, like, I'm making these people better. It's they're just like hard to watch. So I have to say Jalen Hurts last year had two halves of a football where he scored he had zero completions and zero pass yards. So no, I'm not a huge fan of Jalen Hurts. So I know, I know he's had some amazing playoff success. I can't I can't put him in this tier. He was that bad. He scared AJ Brown outside out of Philly. No.
Phillip: The thing like it's so hard because Jalen Hurts is fantastic, like the end of the second quarter, the end of the fourth quarter. Like, whenever it's clutch time, that man transforms and can throw dimes. It's really the regular stuff that he is just so terrible at. And it it's like spent it's such a stark contrast on winning. Like the guy he doesn't throw for over thirty five hundred yards, not even close. Like that's his peak. He's thrown for 3,000 yards the last two years, which is a joke when you have Devonta Smith, AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley, Dallas Scoutter. Like he had a plethora of weapons. And it just the offense doesn't click. It doesn't move regularly. But at the same time, like if there's
Ken: He just wins.
Phillip: just yeah. And I know that's so opposite for things I normally pick, but when you do it so regularly and so successfully, and then we the bottom line I told you before we started, it's like, yeah, the Super Bowls. The man averages 350 yards a total offense and three and a half touchdowns a Super Bowl. It is outrageous how well he plays. so I just, you know, I I had to reward it.
Ken: Okay, he's not even the best Philadelphia Eagle quarterback in the Super Bowl in the last ten years. Nick Foles, baby. No do not disrespect Nick Foles.
Phillip: What? Okay, that's fair. there is actually like like there's a lit right that's so there's a legit argument that like the best Philadelphia Eagles quarterback of like the tet the last ten, fifteen years is Carson Wentz. Like in terms of like a pure statistical
Ken: Yeah. Mm-hmm.
Phillip: for his time of a on the team. he just happened
Ken: Mm-hmm.
Phillip: to be so bad in like one and a half years they kicked him off the team. Alright, so let's get to your guy, Justin Herbert. I feel like if I had to carve these up, he would be on an island between the three ahead of him and the two behind him. and the difference being the ones ahead Williams and Love are a little bit younger, or there's been more playoff success. The only thing holding him back has been like there's been flash plays, the arm has been amazing, the numbers have been there, but they were there as rookie year and then they plummeted. And I know he carried the Chargers on what was a dead offense last year. but can we actually see the peak that is I'm a 14 win team, I'm 35 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. That has not been shown, right? So I I want I wanna see a good year out of him that is not his rookie year, which was his best statistical year. At least I think so still.
Ken: Yeah, but so much has just gone so wrong for him around his play. And and he's had games where they've asked him to do crazy things and he's done it, and then there's been games where they're like, Hey, just don't lose us this game and he has lost it for him. So he I mean, you talk about doing everything last year. I mean, absolutely. They had no run game, they had no line, their receivers they were a bunch of slight average to slightly above average group. No disrespect to Keenan Allen. I Keenan Allen. but nothing. N nothing really around him. And he completely carried this team. Now I have I people say it all the time, but I think this is the year where I make up a firm stance on him where it's like, hey, we'd like your offensive coordinator. Like your like the passing weapons, we like the run game. You have a lot going for you, you have good defense. There's there's no excuse for you not to do this. Like you've you've been say you know, we've been saying that you need this around you, you have it now. Let's see what you got.
Phillip: Okay. I agree. And if he crushes it, like he's a guy that could jump up because he is still only twenty seven years old. Just got his big contract. And I was the only thing I will add is year two was his best statistical year, but year one and two, like by far the best. And as he's been more successful as in terms of wins, his performance has gone down. Again, not to his fault, but I wanna see those connected. Jalen Hurts, it's very clear. If he is good, it's all good. moving on. So we have Brock Purdy and CJ Stroud round rounding out this group. CJ Stroud is probably the one under the most questions because the win like it has just not been there in terms of success in the playoffs. or he had a successful playoffs, but man, did he look terrible? He fumbled snaps left and right. The numbers weren't there. He did miss Nico in the second round, but it just was still disappointing in general. And then as for Brock Purdy, the exact opposite where, you know, he was under question so much for relying on his team. And then last year, everyone gets hurt. And he is still showing up week after week and being extremely successful, getting the wins. I don't know if his arm can throw more than forty yards, but I think he is absolutely like discounted playmaker where he can make moves, get and get the ball to his players in the clutch, and then Kyle Shanahan can take care of the rest so he he has that feather in his cap. but I think last year was the year that Brock Purdy really showed like, I don't need my players. I just I just need to know where to go with the ball and on the few times I need to make a play, I'll do it.
Ken: Yeah, but it's still Kyle Shanahan's system and like I I we just really love him. The the Kyle Shanahan and it it does make a difference. and it's it's one of those things where I mean it's slightly getting better weapons. I I did like David Montgomery there, but I mean i you gotta give him something. He he really hasn't had much. I like Nico, but the the offensive line, like it it's it's too big of a gap, not have an offensive line.
Phillip: He he is definitely the guy that like we we I think I said it last week. It's like just bet on his offensive coordinator to have a heartbeat this year and it will solve a lot of problems. All right. These next two I'm bringing up and I'm showing together. and that's because it this these two are highly dependent on where you are as a franchise, for where I would put these quarterbacks. So it's no excess value. These guys, you're gonna pay them top dollar. And they need stuff around them. Now Matt Stafford is in this group because he's going to retire like next year. And he should win a Super Bowl this year with the Super Rams. But it is the Super Rams, and I'm not giving him full credit for that in terms of like what I would give to if Burrow won with the Bengals. So Stafford is like a star on the no excess value. But like we look at Dak, Trevor Lawrence, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Bo next, Jarrett Goff. I don't think there is a lot where people are like, you know what? That's the guy I need, and I'm going to be a playoff team. That's it. the other group we just showed, continually in the playoffs. so that's why, you know, these guys aren't there. And then cheap and young, this section is literally just like If you have a good team, I don't want this guy to be my or you know, if you if I have a full roster, I don't want this guy to be my quarterback. He's cheap, he needs to develop, and like Trevor Lawrence has a better chance to win a Super Bowl with a good Jags roster than Shuck, Ward, Dart, or Mendoza. However, I do still like all those guys, and I think they are they have solved quarterback problems for teams. So starting there. with the concept of each. Does that make sense? You on board with those? The high level groups.
Ken: I mean, I I completely get it. I I would have a pretty hard tier break between I would have Stafford and Dak in the next one up. And yes, I know Stafford's gonna retire here, but I care more about the near future. I Stafford has one maybe they can convince him for one more after this, depend depending on how they do. I mean his his arms look great. He's he's a tough guy. Mem do you remember last year talking before the season of like, man, they're having these back procedures and he's getting these injections and people like, he can barely walk and I was like, Matt Stafford's gonna play as many games as he needs to and clearly wasn't an issue.
Phillip: Some smart people on this podcast said at forty to one he's a great MVP bet.
Ken: I don't know. I don't know if that one was posted or not. It's hard to say.
Phillip: Fair enough.
Ken: But I also have Dak just a a little bit higher, as well. I mean he's
Phillip: He's the top of the list.
Ken: I I think he's closer to those like perennial quarterbacks where they just have drastic like meltdowns and not make it. he I he's always had weapons in Dallas, but he he has, I mean, year in year year out, like really like produced like higher volumes and yeah, probably a lot of that has to do with the defense or lack thereof there. But I mean, I I think that he's done enough to separate himself from Trevor Lawrence and Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield.
Phillip: thing is just like I don't see the winning. Like when I say that when it's like a coin flip game, it's
Ken: They do.
Phillip: like I I I know it's not the but when it's a coin flip game, I know it's not the Cowboys. Like that's the bottom line. Like I feel like that's pretty consistent and some and something I I I've ridden with
Ken: Okay. Yeah. Yeah.
Phillip: for a while where it's like week one last year. I remember I said bet the Cowboys. It's a seven and a half point spread they're underdogs. They're gonna keep it close enough to they're gonna lose by set they're gonna lose. Like money line is a huge it's a steal, cause they're not winning week one. And they didn't. They kept it it was a great game though, but it's it's just like all that ick is way too much for me.
Ken: He he's in that list of like if week eight, if we look and say, wow, look at this. X player is leading the league in passing touchdowns and passing yards, it's like Herbert, Stafford, Dak, every one of those they could do and they'd be like, yeah.
Phillip: Yeah.
Ken: And you know, a little bit further down, like Goff too. I I kind of have him lumped in there, but that just has to do more with the the the system.
Phillip: so let's take let's take a look. These these next three are very similar though. Lawrence, Darnold, and Baker, right? Top three picks. At least I think so. Darnold was the top three. now Darnold and Baker have moved, but like there was a lot, these guys were big names coming into the NFL. Lawrence is with his main team and you know, he's Sunshine. He was supposed to do all these great things. And last year the Jags had, I think, a run that shocked us in general, like thirteen and four. That team didn't seem like a thirteen and four team at all. great, great play calling to design and coaching from Liam Cohen. Darnold obviously a magical Super Bowl run, after a magical year with the Vikings. And Baker has made a name for himself and is now in contract disputes with Tampa Bay. So like when I look at these guys, it's just so hard for me to think like Darnold, take him and put him on to the Chiefs and that team I would expect to be successful or the Bills. Cause he what he really needed, like the Vikings ecosystem of young players playing well and having great options. and he got that in Seattle last year too. and then same thing for Baker Mayfield, like I don't know. It's just when I look at all three of these guys, I think they're just all super interchangeable and I don't really care. Do does does any stand out for you? They're surprisingly close in age, I think. Yeah, okay.
Ken: I mean Darnold's kinda on that list of like there's it's like he's done everything that you've expect or asked him to do, and for some reason I'm just still not giving him that respect. But you can see, I mean, teams can do bad in really good situations in Minnesota. turns out JJ McCarthy and Carson Wentz just not it. in
Phillip: Whoa, dude, Carson Wentz looked good. Who did they they they they played someone that I think it was had to was it was probably the Eagles
Ken: Browns.
Phillip: and now it doesn't matter. And they went toe to toe like Carson Wentz went toe to toe, and I think if it wasn't for a TJ Hawkinson touchdown overcalled, they would have beat the Eagles. anyways. I thought
Ken: Mm-hmm.
Phillip: I I personally think I wish they had Carson Wentz this year healthy.
Ken: I I I like Kyler Murray. I Kyler Murray's pretty underrated now because of just how bad last year went. And last year was the only year that's gone bad for quarterbacks in Minnesota. but no, I agree. There I mean there's a lot of interchangeability. By the way, the Baker cycle, we're back at it. We're back at the top. He's got the chip on his shoulder, he has something out to prove, he's gonna look great.
Phillip: in on that actually if you if you want to talk fantasy like I I think I said it on our draft thing like a Meka Obuka is my guy I I think he's gonna be gre I think he's a great receiver period I think he's gonna be a great player he needs to be a stat pattern
Ken: I I think there's good value for him. Chris Godwin and I I think what's his name, McMillan got hurt. Yeah, Jalen McMillan. I
Phillip: Yeah, J Jalen McMillan.
Ken: think he got hurt though, but we'll see.
Phillip: But no, I think they will be so good. And if you trade them at week six, that is gonna be so smart. Cause Baker will have gone five and one, four and two, and will start to cool off. Now, here is the trap. Bo Nicks. When you look at Bo Nicks, there's winning, there's solid stat performances. I mean he was in the AFC championship due to like if you if you like Brandon Cook's not holding on to the ball is like the difference between like advancing and not. the eye test just does not match anything. And I think a lot of NFL people like I I think I'm so low on Bo Nicks and Jordan Love are the two that it seems like I am consistently low on relative to other people. do you think he's appropriate here up down? Would you do you think he should fall into the cheap and young tet like category? What's going on?
Ken: It's tough. I have him just a touch lower. I have a I can't put Jared Goff below Bo Nicks. And part of it is just the absolute duds that come around and he he does rely a lot on mobility that he like would that will fade eventually. And a bit of it's just been being around a team that has ri ridden an elite defense, but they hit they've he's looked good. He it's he Kind of like the whole Drake Mae thing. He's done everything that we've asked him to. He he he's there's been not much more that you would, but then like he plays the the Raiders and wins like what s nine six or something like that with a bunch of field goals and just like a little bit less horrible play than the worst team in the league. And I mean statistically he he's been good, but I I think a lot more of that is just written like if if he had if he was on Tampa Bay and they had a crap defense, I don't think that you'd see anything close to to what he has. So I think that's a bit of Sean Payton, a bit of a good defense, and more smoke and mirrors than anything else.
Phillip: So Jared Goff is here. If you want to talk about it, I don't. I think he is
Ken: No.
Phillip: I think he is the bottom of the list though of like guys I would want as my starter, and that is literally just because of like the good is amazing, but the bad is so bad. Like you break his pocket, you put him outside in the cold, all these like one dimensional, like, is this a yes or no answer? And it's like, all right, if it's no, get Goff's having a bad game. If it's yes, Goff is good. and it's like that fragility, I just don't want it. And that's why he's like here. And again, I would probably look to do what the Rams did, where I'm just like, he's my quarterback. You can have him. He can be your starter, but I'll still need to pay you for like the premium product that was Matt Stafford at that time.
Ken: Yeah. I mean, product of the system as well, where like they're really lucky to have Ben Johnson there for so long. I don't think it's a Dan Campbell mastermind whatsoever. I think that I mean Jameer Gibbs, Jamison Williams, Amon Ross St. Brown, even Samuel Porter, I'm gonna lump him in as like a top five just like athletically like gifted tight end where bottom of the top five, but still. I mean, just phenomenal players all around. And he's like he's functioning well. So you could certainly do worse than Jared Goff.
Phillip: all right, so cheap and young now. really ranking last year's quarterbacks and this year's. So if Mendoza's just at the bottom, that's like a default rookie drop. That is not me saying he's worse than these. It's like I don't want to argue over where the rookie who we haven't seen anything from goes. So he goes at the bottom. he is marked essentially in this group as a solution at quarterback, but I'm not going to if you say anywhere, I'm just like, sure, we'll see what happens. in terms of the other three, unless you unless you have something on Mendoza.
Ken: No, I mean my I gotta tell you from this group I would I would take Cam Ward.
Phillip: So that that was gonna be the question. It's like, I love Jackson Dart. I think Dart and Scataboo are two phenomenal players in general, like to watch and be a New York ethos. And they go great in a hardball system with toughness and grit. I just don't buy either. I just don't buy the success and the magic that he was pulling off, but they were still losing every game. You gotta go, all good.
Ken: Mm-hmm. Sorry guys. Gotta I gotta head out early, but no, I don't believe in Jackson Dart. I don't believe in Mr. Concussion. I I I'd have to see
Phillip: Let's
Ken: it.
Phillip: last note, Tyler Shuck came on last year at the end of the year. You hit you still have Cam Ward over him though.
Ken: I just think Cam Ward had a whole lot less to work with. Like Tennessee was an absolute dumpster fire, but showed enough at the end of the year where it's like, I want to see more. And Tatochuk,
Phillip: Gotcha.
Ken: a little bit older. He he looked fine. I just think that Cam Ward longer year, over the next three years, I'm more interested in Cam Ward. I think that the ceiling's higher. That's all. They they're really close though.
Phillip: All good, go take care of Connor. yeah. The only thing I will say beyond what Ken said is I got struck at first and I thought what we saw from New Orleans to end the year was much, much more impressive than what we were seeing from the other teams. Like Cam Ward started to piece some stuff together, but it just wasn't as impressive. And that could be due to weapons and everything, but I think Shuck with the Kellen Moore system with lots invested around him will have a better opportunity to thrive than Cam Ward. and I think Cam Ward has a good shot to be a good NFL quarterback. but again, he was really raw coming in to begin with. And if it's not nurtured correctly, will definitely cause lots of problems. So the remaining groups, like there is really nothing to say. you might just disagree with the listings, but one year hold, these guys have the right to play quarterback for one year for you and might make something happen. but I doubt it. Aaron Rodgers is the closest to being successful regularly. Daniel Jones, he's should be happy he got his money and played as well as he did. I don't think he's the solution in Indy. I think they're gonna need to draft a guy. Bryce Young, Kyler Murray, both just They they just leave things to be desired when you watch them play. they have some wow, they have some pop, but you need more, especially with the level of quarterback play. And then go to the draft, like these guys, the team is going to be bad if you use their starting quarterback and it's not gonna end well. I'm sorry, you're competing for like a top end pick. So Browns, Giants, Miami, get ready to see if you will be taking Arch Manning. All right, and that's the list. Here's a quick summary again of what we had. Left to right will be the actual rankings used. it's exciting to to start it off. We o always have fun doing things like this. And curious how it plays out during the year. So please like, comment, and subscribe. Let me know what you think is right and wrong. yeah, look forward just to seeing how this plays out.
