ABOUT THIS EPISODE
People on the timeline are capitulating on Bitcoin again, and I think this is the worst time in the last 12 months to do it. If the bears are right they protect very little from here, and if they're wrong they miss a lot of upside. The level I care about is a weekly close below $75,000, not a wick under $77,000 or $76,000, and I'm a buyer into this capitulation in the $76,000 to $78,000 zone. The options market agrees: traders are paying up for puts into the November 6 expiry, the midterms week, but they only hedge down to about $75,200. Plus Ethereum catching a Glamsterdam bug just in time, Ripple's US national trust bank, Anthropic filing for an IPO at a $1.5 to $2 trillion valuation, and why Jason Calacanis telling people to sell Bitcoin for Bittensor reminds me of his June 2023 call.
Chapters:
(00:00) Why capitulating now is the worst time
(04:12) Ethereum catches a Glamsterdam bug in time
(05:15) Ripple gets its US national trust bank
(07:14) Anthropic files for an IPO
(09:47) Trading Anthropic pre-IPO on Hyperliquid
(21:00) Why Fetch and Render haven't pumped yet
(26:38) Crypto is not about technology
(30:19) The bears are out in full force
(31:29) The one level that matters: $75K on a weekly close
(38:43) The bear trap below $75K
(41:16) Jason Calacanis: sell Bitcoin, buy Bittensor
(45:54) Why I'm a buyer into the capitulation
(46:26) What the Bitcoin options market says
(50:43) Heavier puts into the November 6 expiry
(55:14) Midterms week: hedges only go down to $75K
(1:00:01) Altcoins already look cheap, no leverage
(1:01:12) Q&A: $70K in November, $65K in December?
(1:05:22) Q&A: my QTC position
(1:10:34) Q&A: 0G Labs and decentralized inference
(1:14:21) Q&A: still bullish on the coins I covered?
(1:17:43) Q&A: which narrative runs the most this cycle
(1:20:55) Thanks for joining, live Monday to Friday
