ABOUT THIS EPISODE
Bitcoin briefly lost $75,000 yesterday after the Clarity Act's cloture vote failed 49 to 50 in the Senate. That one was genuinely not priced in: odds of full Senate passage sat at 51% the morning of the vote and they're 6% now. Today's Fed hike is the opposite, fully priced in, so the thing worth watching at 2 PM is the dot plot and the projection material, not the 25 basis points. XRP took the panic hardest, down 10.8% against Bitcoin's 3.6%, roughly three times the move, and I've started DCAing from $1.28. The bigger headwind is the 10-year Treasury yield breaking 5% for the first time since 2007, with Brent crude still above $100 after the Yanbu pipeline shutdown. My levels haven't changed: 5% more of the portfolio at $70K, all in at $66K, and I'm already 85% allocated.
Chapters:
(0:00:00) Bitcoin lost $75K and the Clarity Act delay was not priced in
(0:05:05) What actually failed: the cloture vote, 49 to 50
(0:06:25) Prediction market odds: 6% passage is not zero
(0:11:07) Senator Tillis switched his vote to keep a revote open
(0:14:16) The calendar: 11 working days to October 2, then the lame duck session
(0:20:36) Price action: why XRP absorbed the panic
(0:22:42) XRP down 10.8% against Bitcoin's 3.6%, DCA running from $1.28
(0:24:14) Solana and the rest of the blue chips
(0:26:01) Not a maxi: why I trade coins I do not use
(0:31:29) The Fed at 2 PM: 350 to 375 basis points, already priced in
(0:35:10) The dot plot and the SEP, the real thing to watch today
(0:42:35) Circle's Arc chain goes live on mainnet
(0:45:43) 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5% for the first time since 2007
(0:48:25) QE is too slow and the Treasury cannot push yields down
(0:52:23) Oil at $104 Brent and the Yanbu shutdown
(0:55:41) How $100 oil becomes November core PCE
(0:57:20) AI and equities: S&P, NASDAQ and SOX levels
(1:00:07) Buying the AI dip and the OpenAI, Anthropic IPO thesis
(1:01:22) Q&A: printing, bond yields and the S&P correction trigger
(1:04:17) My Bitcoin levels: 5% more at 70K, all in at 66K
(1:09:21) Why I do not short blue chips
(1:12:18) Why AI is the easiest crypto narrative to bet on
(1:15:27) Did Warsh remove the dot plot?
(1:17:47) QT in December, and why the balance sheet does not shrink
(1:19:03) AI coins: TAO, Render, Fetch AI, and why NEAR looks mid
(1:23:10) NEAR against BitTensor on the log chart
(1:28:03) Where I will post the 2 PM reaction
