“They’re Not Like Us”: Michael McFaul on Autocrats vs. Democrats and the Fight for the Twenty-First Century | Peter Robinson | Hoover Institution

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- From Butte, Montana to
Spaso House, the residents
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of the Ambassador of the
United States to Russia,
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ambassador Michael McFaul
on Uncommon Knowledge.
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Now,
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I'm Peter Robinson, a native of Montana.
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Michael McFaul is a senior
fellow at the Hoover Institution,
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a senior fellow at the
Freeman Bogley Institute
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for International Studies,
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and a professor of
international studies all
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here at Stanford.
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He served on the National Security Council
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during the first three years
of the Obama administration,
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and then as ambassador to
Russia from 2012 to 2014.
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Professor McFalls, most recent book,
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autocrats versus Democrats,
China, Russia, America,
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and the New Global Disorder.
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Mike, welcome to Uncommon Knowledge.
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Thanks for having me from
autocrats versus Democrats.
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While American power has
declined in relative terms since
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its peak in 1990s,
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the US remains the most
powerful country in the world.
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It is likely to maintain that position
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for the foreseeable future.
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We have four time zones. Russia has 11.
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We have a population of 340 million.
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China has a population of 1.4 billion.
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What do we got that they ain't got?
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- Well, that's a great question
and it's a hard question.
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I have three chapters
in the book about power
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and how you measure
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power gives you different answers, right?
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So if you measure in terms of population
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and territory, those were the things
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that mattered most in the 18th
and 19th century about power.
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We're not in good shape,
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but if you measure in terms of education,
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especially higher education,
you measure GDP per capita.
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We're way ahead of both
of those countries.
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Other proxies, I use best
universities in the world.
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We're at one of 'em, we're ahead of them.
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And then I also in the book
talk about not just China,
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Russia, and America,
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I talk about the free world
versus the autocratic world.
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And as long as we're united
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and we have to put a
question mark to that,
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that's a big challenge.
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But when you add up military power
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of the free world versus the autocratic
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world, we're way ahead.
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When you add up economic power
of all the democracies, nine
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of the 10 largest
economies in the world are
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democracies only.
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China makes that list as,
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and I could, you know,
when you add up the, the,
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the most valuable companies in the world,
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the the list is dominated
by companies first
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and foremost in our country, and first
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and foremost in our neighborhood here.
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But they're mostly in the free world.
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But it, but those are all
variables. They're not constants.
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And we gotta keep working at
it if we're gonna keep ahead
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of the Chinese, especially
the Chinese, the Russians,
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they have one thing, they have land,
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of course they have nuclear
weapons that deters,
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but they also have a guy
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that even though he has
more limited capabilities,
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has proven tragically a willingness
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to use them for very bad ends.
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- Okay, let's, let's follow
along with Russia here
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in autocrats versus Democrats.
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You write about Russia after the 1991
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collapse of the Soviet Union.
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For me, now I'm quoting you.
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For me, the question
was whether Russia would
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consolidate democracy.
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By the way you lived in Russia during much
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of this post-Soviet period
period in the nineties.
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- Yes. Yeah, I
- Did. For me,
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the question was whether Russia
would consolidate democracy
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and remain inside our tent
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or drift back toward its long tradition
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of autocratic governance.
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A return to dictatorship is
precisely what happened. Yeah.
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Why,
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- Why?
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Well, well I still believe that sentence.
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I'm glad you're quoting me. My sentence is
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to remind me what I wrote.
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'cause this book took me many years
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and I have a very vivid memory,
Peter of, of saying that
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to the president of the United States.
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George W. Bush, two weeks, three weeks
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before he met with Putin before,
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and we were having a
debate about Russian power.
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Russia, you know, was very weak.
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They had the big crash in 1998.
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And the debate in the room, it
was at his house, by the way,
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at the White House and
not just in the West Wing.
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It was he, he's he, Kate, let us come
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to his house and give us a tour.
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He's a super friendly guy.
And they were debating power.
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And I said, Mr. President,
it doesn't matter
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how much power they have,
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it matters whether they're in
the Democratic club or not.
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And if they're powerful
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and they're democratic,
we're gonna be fine.
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It didn't work out that
way for a big many reasons.
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Right? It's not just one simple thing.
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But the, the biggest variable,
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and I write about this
in the book, is leaders
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and Putin, had there been a
different president that came
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to power in 2000,
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and by the way, president
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of Russia meet president of Russia.
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Excuse me. Thanks for being clear.
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And there was a different era apparent.
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His name was Boris Soff. He was a, so
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- Yeltsin takes over from Gorbachev.
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Gorbachev wraps up the Soviet Union.
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- Yes,
- Yeltsin becomes president
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of the Russian Federation.
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- Newly independent Russia,
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- Newly independent Russia.
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And this is when all our
hopes were soaring. Yes.
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And at that time there,
you just named a name that
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I thought I knew about this
stuff. I had not heard.
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- Well, no, nobody has.
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That's what, that's
the tragedy of history.
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Alright, so this was this
guy, Boris stems himself,
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he was a governor in the
middle of Russia, elected twice
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during a major economic
depression in the 1990s.
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That's a very important
part of this story.
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And PhD in physics, by the
way, Jewish by the way,
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and still elected one
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of the most charismatic guys
I've ever met in my life.
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He comes to Moscow in 96, 97,
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becomes the first deputy
prime minister Yts
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and anoints him as his successor.
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But then there's what we
call in political science,
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an exogenous shock.
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1998, financial collapse
all over the world starts,
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by the way in Asia, but reaches Russia.
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And it's still a quasi democracy then.
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So the liberals,
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we would call them
conservatives in America,
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but the, the people
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that believe in free markets like Nims
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himself, they're pushed aside.
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The communists come in and
then they have a panic.
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Oh my God, the communists
are gonna take back over.
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And that's when they say, we better go
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with this strong guy Putin.
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And they annoy him.
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He runs and Putin, it's
important to remember
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for a while he believed
in markets for a while.
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He even believed in a relationship
with the West, especially
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after September 11th.
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Never believed in democracy.
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But over time he becomes much more
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anti-Western anti-market.
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And that leads, I think,
you know, one to this very
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ose imperial Russia that we have today.
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But two, Russia could
have been so much richer,
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so much more prosperous and respected.
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Had my friend Boris himself
been elected, by the way,
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Boris was my friend.
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He was later assassinated in 2015.
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- Alright, so you've just told a story
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based on what happened inside Russia.
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- Yes. - And of course what
we get in the newspapers
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and the shouting is that with
the United States should have
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done this, we missed our
moment with Yeah, Yeltsin.
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So let's go through a
little bit of that. Yeah.
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As indeed you do in the book.
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So a number of scholars argue
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that NATO expansion poisoned
our relations with Russia.
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Historian Mary Sirat, quote,
Washington wins its struggle
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with Moscow over NATO
expansion in the 1990s.
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And we expand bringing in Czech Republic,
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hungry Poland and so forth.
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But the way the United States
goes about enlargement means
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it loses options with regard
to Russia in the longer term.
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The big play in Europe would've
been to create a dynamic
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that established lasting cooperation,
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which sounds a lot like what you were
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telling George W. Bush.
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Instead, Washington
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and Moscow stat snatched stalemate
from the jaws of victory.
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Okay? There is one version
or another of that story.
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It's our fault
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and the, the proximate
cause with the expansion
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of nato. True.
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- No, I radically disagree with that.
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So we didn't make some mistakes.
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The biggest mistake we made
was in the nineties when we
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thought the Cold War was over,
we won the end of history.
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That's what Frank Fukiama
wrote, that famous essay.
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And we did nothing
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to help rebuild Russia in
our community of states.
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The exact opposite of what
we did in World War ii.
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After World War ii, we won and
we brought Germany and Italy
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and Japan in, and that's
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because there was this
menacing threat to the East.
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Russia needed a autocratic
China that was powerful today,
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back 30 years ago.
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For us to do that. We didn't do that.
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We just said, oh, it's gonna
happen organically. It didn't.
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That was the mistake.
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NATO expansion is a variable
in US Russia and us.
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So Soviet relations.
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So it's not always neutral,
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but there were many times
when it was a non-issue.
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So Putin, when he comes to power, he says,
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I wanna join nato 2000.
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It's on the record. He
said it. So hold on.
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This is the cause of the tension
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and he wants to join our our party.
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He said, back then Ukraine
should join nato. No big deal.
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I don't care. This is all on the record.
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I went to a NATO summit when
I worked at the White House in
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2010 in Lisbon, mid Vieta
president mid Vie was there.
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And he said, all of our
animosity with NATO is over.
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And by the way, the last big bang
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of NATO expansion was 2004,
president George W. Bush.
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So I think this is a very
convenient retrospective thing
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that Putin wants to drag out.
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To say NATO has been threatening Russia,
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NATO has never threatened
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to invade Russia or the Soviet Union.
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That's important to remember.
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The real threat is not NATO expansion.
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The real threat is democratic expansion.
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What scares Putin the most?
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And I've sat at a table just
like this, yes, I get to
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that right, is when you,
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Ukrainians are practicing
democracy that threatens him.
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Because back home he
tells the Russian people,
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we're not part of this
liberal, decadent West.
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We're our own civilization.
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We don't have nothing to do with them.
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That he also tells us
people back home Ukrainians,
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they're just Russians with accents.
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And that's part of why I need to
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bring together the Slavic nation.
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But if they're just Russians with accents,
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practicing democracy,
practicing capitalism,
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that is a threat to Vladimir
Putin, not NATO expansion.
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- Okay. So I wanna stick
with your personal history
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because you know, you,
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not only do you know a lot about Russia,
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but you have so much
personal experience with it.
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President Obama at a press
conference in 2009, quote,
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he's in Moscow when he
says this early in his
254
00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,840
administration, I seek to
reset relations with Russia.
255
00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:41,100
Reset. There's the word.
256
00:10:41,100 --> 00:10:44,100
I seek to reset Russian
relations with Russia
257
00:10:44,100 --> 00:10:45,540
because I believe that Americans
258
00:10:45,540 --> 00:10:46,890
and Russians have many common interests.
259
00:10:46,890 --> 00:10:50,280
I see no reason why can,
we cannot aspire together
260
00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,370
to strengthen democracy, human
rights, and the rule of law.
261
00:10:53,370 --> 00:10:56,340
Okay, you're in his
National Security Council,
262
00:10:56,340 --> 00:10:58,620
you become his ambassador
on the ground in Russia.
263
00:10:58,620 --> 00:11:00,205
Yeah. Why didn't the reset work?
264
00:11:02,310 --> 00:11:06,060
- Well, I'd say two things.
One, it worked for a while.
265
00:11:06,060 --> 00:11:08,160
- Oh,
- Did it? And yes, in my view it did.
266
00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:11,850
And you know where that whole,
that paragraph comes from,
267
00:11:11,850 --> 00:11:13,530
comes from George Schultz's memoirs.
268
00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:18,540
I'm pretty sure it's chapter
29 or 27, 1 of the two.
269
00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:23,070
It's called re-Engaging the Soviets.
270
00:11:23,070 --> 00:11:24,360
And George, you know, I,
271
00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:25,920
I've seen you perform
with him when he was here.
272
00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:27,450
He is a great mentor of mine.
273
00:11:27,450 --> 00:11:31,530
That chapter was the basis
for what we were trying to do.
274
00:11:31,530 --> 00:11:32,910
And there are a lot of
275
00:11:32,910 --> 00:11:33,910
- Really important principles.
276
00:11:33,910 --> 00:11:36,060
Wait, you need to tell me that
in the Obama White House, you
277
00:11:36,060 --> 00:11:40,605
and the National Security
Council passed around Chapter 27.
278
00:11:40,605 --> 00:11:42,180
IIII definitely had
279
00:11:42,180 --> 00:11:43,810
that book on my desk all
the time. You had it. You
280
00:11:43,810 --> 00:11:44,810
- Alright?
281
00:11:44,810 --> 00:11:45,643
Alright. Just so you know Peter,
282
00:11:45,643 --> 00:11:47,610
'cause you I worked for President Reagan.
283
00:11:47,610 --> 00:11:50,730
I also had a magnifying
glass from George Schultz,
284
00:11:50,730 --> 00:11:54,040
which on it said, trust but verify.
285
00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:57,940
And I used to change that. I
said, don't trust, just verify.
286
00:11:57,940 --> 00:11:59,645
Just verify dealing
with the Russians. Okay.
287
00:11:59,645 --> 00:12:00,790
But, but lemme I want to tell you the
288
00:12:00,790 --> 00:12:01,810
story 'cause it's really important.
289
00:12:01,810 --> 00:12:03,040
Yes, yes, yes. Even in, in terms of
290
00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:04,690
how we're dealing with Putin today.
291
00:12:04,690 --> 00:12:07,990
So in that chapter, and I'm
just paraphrasing obviously,
292
00:12:07,990 --> 00:12:09,190
but I've read it many times.
293
00:12:10,330 --> 00:12:12,040
Remember George comes in in 1982.
294
00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:14,530
He's not in the Reagan
administration in the beginning.
295
00:12:14,530 --> 00:12:15,880
And and in that period,
296
00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:17,950
there's not much interaction
with the Soviets at all.
297
00:12:17,950 --> 00:12:20,740
- Right? - And he comes in
and he says, this is crazy.
298
00:12:20,740 --> 00:12:22,510
We have to talk to these guys. We have.
299
00:12:22,510 --> 00:12:24,010
And it was about nuclear weapons
300
00:12:24,010 --> 00:12:25,450
and regional security stuff.
301
00:12:25,450 --> 00:12:27,730
We have to have some dialogue with them.
302
00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:30,580
And he laid out a different strategy.
303
00:12:30,580 --> 00:12:32,290
This is before Gorbachev, by the way.
304
00:12:32,290 --> 00:12:33,290
- Yes, yes. Gorbachev. Gorbachev
305
00:12:33,290 --> 00:12:34,300
- Comes along. It's a lot easier,
306
00:12:34,300 --> 00:12:35,300
- Right?
307
00:12:35,300 --> 00:12:36,430
- He is. This is the,
you know, this is way
308
00:12:36,430 --> 00:12:39,790
before Gorbachev 1982, BNAs still there.
309
00:12:39,790 --> 00:12:42,010
And then un drop off. And he says a couple
310
00:12:42,010 --> 00:12:43,810
of really important principles.
311
00:12:43,810 --> 00:12:46,240
One, not on everything,
312
00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:48,940
but there are certain
issues where the Soviets
313
00:12:48,940 --> 00:12:51,610
and the United States
have similar interests.
314
00:12:51,610 --> 00:12:54,430
And we have to work on
those to achieve outcomes
315
00:12:54,430 --> 00:12:55,690
that are good for both of our country.
316
00:12:55,690 --> 00:12:58,300
So controlling nuclear
weapons around the world.
317
00:12:58,300 --> 00:13:00,160
We both have an interest in that.
318
00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,410
But then he said some really
other important things.
319
00:13:02,410 --> 00:13:05,350
He said, number two, when we do that,
320
00:13:05,350 --> 00:13:07,930
we're not gonna check
our values at the door.
321
00:13:07,930 --> 00:13:10,420
Nobody was confused about
Ronald Reagan's views about
322
00:13:10,420 --> 00:13:12,490
liberty and freedom, you know, well,
323
00:13:12,490 --> 00:13:13,870
I, I just read about it.
324
00:13:13,870 --> 00:13:17,800
And he said, very purposely
we're gonna talk the same
325
00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:19,330
behind closed doors with the Soviets
326
00:13:19,330 --> 00:13:21,040
as we do to everybody else.
327
00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,380
And number three related to that,
328
00:13:23,380 --> 00:13:27,370
and I stole it right outta
Ronald Reagan's v visit in 1988,
329
00:13:27,370 --> 00:13:29,260
when Ronald Reagan comes in 1988,
330
00:13:29,260 --> 00:13:31,210
very famous summit with Gorbachev.
331
00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:34,630
He then holds a luncheon, thank
332
00:13:34,630 --> 00:13:36,070
- You all
- At Spaso house.
333
00:13:36,070 --> 00:13:37,990
- Welcome to Spaso House.
334
00:13:37,990 --> 00:13:40,270
- I wrote that speech.
You did? Yeah. Oh my God.
335
00:13:40,270 --> 00:13:41,290
I knew you wrote that other one.
336
00:13:41,290 --> 00:13:43,090
I didn't know you are that
one. I wrote that one.
337
00:13:43,090 --> 00:13:45,430
That's a brilliant speech.
That is a brilliant speech.
338
00:13:45,430 --> 00:13:47,570
That's a I will give all credit to it.
339
00:13:47,570 --> 00:13:51,580
I want, well, I, we, I
personally, I I'm not gonna speak
340
00:13:51,580 --> 00:13:53,440
for anybody else at all, you
know, Obama administration,
341
00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:57,070
but I personally was focused
on the same choreography
342
00:13:57,070 --> 00:13:59,350
that you guys did in 1988.
343
00:13:59,350 --> 00:14:02,205
Obama also gives a speech,
wasn't as good as yours.
344
00:14:02,205 --> 00:14:05,230
I I, I worked on that one.
But it was in the same spirit.
345
00:14:05,230 --> 00:14:09,340
But then in the same spirit
of dual track diplomacy
346
00:14:09,340 --> 00:14:12,040
that Reagan and Schultz practiced.
347
00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:13,120
They had all their stuff with
348
00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:14,770
Gorbachev Kremlin and all that.
349
00:14:14,770 --> 00:14:18,010
And then he comes over to the
ambassador's residence sponsor
350
00:14:18,010 --> 00:14:19,360
house that I later get to live.
351
00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:22,810
Yes. You, you lived. But the
photos are there. I remember.
352
00:14:22,810 --> 00:14:27,640
And in the room are all
the Jewish dissidents,
353
00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:31,870
the religious activists,
the NGO sums people,
354
00:14:31,870 --> 00:14:35,470
all the, the society that the,
355
00:14:35,470 --> 00:14:38,110
the Soviet Union was trying to crush.
356
00:14:38,110 --> 00:14:39,640
And Reagan was very clear.
357
00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,310
He, he's like, you are
part of this country too.
358
00:14:42,310 --> 00:14:45,430
I acknowledge you and we are
going to engage with you.
359
00:14:45,430 --> 00:14:48,820
And by the way, super fancy,
you know, they weren't,
360
00:14:48,820 --> 00:14:50,650
they didn't have like
paper plates and all that.
361
00:14:50,650 --> 00:14:52,370
Sometimes there's like, let's do the photo
362
00:14:52,370 --> 00:14:54,530
op with the human rights
folks. Full show best
363
00:14:54,530 --> 00:14:55,530
- Dinner show.
364
00:14:55,530 --> 00:14:57,710
- Oh. And that. And so that's
what we are trying to do.
365
00:14:57,710 --> 00:15:00,830
And I don't want to
dwell on that too much,
366
00:15:00,830 --> 00:15:02,720
but we did accomplish some things
367
00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:03,950
that were good for America.
368
00:15:03,950 --> 00:15:05,240
I'll let the Russians think
369
00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:06,530
if they thought it was good or not.
370
00:15:06,530 --> 00:15:08,390
We got a new star treaty reduced
371
00:15:08,390 --> 00:15:10,430
by 30% the number of nuclear weapons.
372
00:15:10,430 --> 00:15:13,850
That's 2010. We opened up a new pathway
373
00:15:13,850 --> 00:15:18,020
to supply our troops in
Afghanistan through Russia
374
00:15:18,020 --> 00:15:21,680
because we wanted to take the
war on terrorism to Pakistan.
375
00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:22,820
'cause there was a certain guy there,
376
00:15:22,820 --> 00:15:24,860
Osama Bin Laden as you remember.
377
00:15:24,860 --> 00:15:28,010
And we thought we might
have to invade Pakistan
378
00:15:28,010 --> 00:15:29,330
and violate their sovereignty.
379
00:15:29,330 --> 00:15:31,790
We are worried that they
would cut off our supply rats.
380
00:15:31,790 --> 00:15:34,940
So we did that with the Russians.
We had sanctions on Iran.
381
00:15:34,940 --> 00:15:38,900
First time that you had a
multinational sanctions,
382
00:15:38,900 --> 00:15:40,040
- The Russians joined our sanctions,
383
00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,980
- Joined UN security
council resolution 1929.
384
00:15:42,980 --> 00:15:45,890
I remember it. I could
go through other things.
385
00:15:45,890 --> 00:15:49,460
And that was working for
a time with two caveats.
386
00:15:49,460 --> 00:15:51,710
The dual track diplomacy thing.
387
00:15:51,710 --> 00:15:54,680
Obama goes, does the
same thing that President
388
00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:58,040
President Reagan does,
meets with President Vieta.
389
00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:00,260
We have breakfast with Putin.
390
00:16:00,260 --> 00:16:04,730
Then we pivot to the
Reagan format. Big speech.
391
00:16:04,730 --> 00:16:07,340
We chose, just so you know,
'cause you know the history.
392
00:16:07,340 --> 00:16:09,260
Moscow State University,
where Reagan's book,
393
00:16:09,260 --> 00:16:11,930
that's a communist state university.
394
00:16:11,930 --> 00:16:15,350
We deliberately chose
a private university.
395
00:16:15,350 --> 00:16:18,260
Oh, run by my friends, by
the way, great honor for me
396
00:16:18,260 --> 00:16:21,140
to join you at the new economic school.
397
00:16:21,140 --> 00:16:23,270
We wanted to signal the new Russia.
398
00:16:23,270 --> 00:16:24,710
That's where Obama gave his speech.
399
00:16:24,710 --> 00:16:27,110
And then he met with civil society leaders
400
00:16:27,110 --> 00:16:28,880
and opposition leaders.
401
00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,250
That worked out fine for a while.
402
00:16:31,250 --> 00:16:35,300
And then there was mass
mobilization in Russia in response
403
00:16:35,300 --> 00:16:37,760
to a falsified election in 2011.
404
00:16:38,660 --> 00:16:39,493
And I'm gonna tell you,
405
00:16:39,493 --> 00:16:41,480
honestly, we didn't think much of it.
406
00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,330
Seven 8% falsification. That's
a normal Russian election.
407
00:16:44,330 --> 00:16:45,770
Right? What's the big deal?
408
00:16:45,770 --> 00:16:47,810
But this time, Peter, these are
409
00:16:47,810 --> 00:16:50,030
what we would call the middle class.
410
00:16:50,870 --> 00:16:52,130
They call them the creative class.
411
00:16:52,130 --> 00:16:54,470
These are people that
own things now. Right.
412
00:16:54,470 --> 00:16:57,680
And they said, you can't take,
413
00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:00,830
you can't steal our
money that's called taxes
414
00:17:00,830 --> 00:17:03,290
and not give us representation.
415
00:17:03,290 --> 00:17:05,960
And they led these demonstrations.
416
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:10,280
5,500, eventually 200,000
people in the streets of Moscow.
417
00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:12,050
You know what one other slogans was,
418
00:17:12,050 --> 00:17:14,330
no taxation without representation.
419
00:17:14,330 --> 00:17:15,770
I don't know if you've
heard that one before.
420
00:17:17,060 --> 00:17:21,200
And that scared Putin, rightfully so.
421
00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,750
He thought he was gonna
lose control of the country.
422
00:17:23,750 --> 00:17:26,450
And so he blamed us for
that. He blamed the west.
423
00:17:26,450 --> 00:17:28,220
And he blamed me personally,
by the way, for that.
424
00:17:28,220 --> 00:17:31,160
He said that I was sent to foment
425
00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,560
and coordinate the revolution against him.
426
00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,140
And that's when the reset ended. Okay.
427
00:17:36,140 --> 00:17:40,550
- Could I step, this is so
treat me as a very slow student
428
00:17:40,550 --> 00:17:43,100
because I'm about to ask an
extremely basic question.
429
00:17:43,100 --> 00:17:44,090
That's what I know. It's a very
430
00:17:44,090 --> 00:17:45,470
dangerous question for this guy.
431
00:17:45,470 --> 00:17:49,470
No, no. So here I,
432
00:17:49,470 --> 00:17:50,880
I'm gonna quote from autocrats versus
433
00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:52,380
Democrats to set this up.
434
00:17:52,380 --> 00:17:53,610
Vladimir, this is you.
435
00:17:53,610 --> 00:17:55,710
Vladimir Putin has
demonstrated a willingness
436
00:17:55,710 --> 00:17:57,450
to deploy his government's resources
437
00:17:57,450 --> 00:18:00,660
to intervene in the domestic
affairs of other countries.
438
00:18:00,660 --> 00:18:04,410
2008, he goes into Georgia
2014 annexation of the Crimea.
439
00:18:04,410 --> 00:18:06,540
And then of course the 2022 invasion
440
00:18:06,540 --> 00:18:08,160
of Ukraine proper, so to speak.
441
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,550
What's left of Ukraine? Yes.
And here's the question.
442
00:18:13,110 --> 00:18:17,820
What is it about Russia?
443
00:18:17,820 --> 00:18:19,890
You've got a couple of periods.
444
00:18:19,890 --> 00:18:22,560
Alexander II freeze the serfs,
445
00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,830
and then a 20 years
later he's assassinated.
446
00:18:25,830 --> 00:18:28,590
- Yeah.
- Nicholas II permits the establishment
447
00:18:28,590 --> 00:18:30,660
of a Duma in 1905.
448
00:18:30,660 --> 00:18:32,940
You've got the Prime Minister still open
449
00:18:32,940 --> 00:18:36,570
or something if I'm not sure
how Toan, thank you very much.
450
00:18:36,570 --> 00:18:38,700
It looks like a moment
when they're actually going
451
00:18:38,700 --> 00:18:42,480
to have some form this fresh beginning.
452
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:44,190
And then we have the first World War. Yes.
453
00:18:44,190 --> 00:18:47,550
And the Communist take over over just say,
454
00:18:47,550 --> 00:18:51,540
so when Putin says, we're
not part of that civilization
455
00:18:51,540 --> 00:18:55,890
here we have a man who is
behaving in the year 2026.
456
00:18:55,890 --> 00:18:58,380
- Yeah.
- In a way that Ivan the Terrible
457
00:18:58,380 --> 00:19:00,420
and Catherine the Great would both have
458
00:19:00,420 --> 00:19:02,400
recognized and approved.
459
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,220
- Yes.
- What is the transmission mechanism?
460
00:19:05,220 --> 00:19:07,110
- Yeah.
- How is it that this country,
461
00:19:07,110 --> 00:19:09,390
and then of course, during
the nineties, the recent,
462
00:19:09,390 --> 00:19:11,820
there's a moment of
hopefulness under Yeltsin.
463
00:19:11,820 --> 00:19:13,770
And the reset works for a time,
464
00:19:13,770 --> 00:19:17,400
and then it falls back into
this autocratic pattern,
465
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:19,680
which has lasted at
least a thousand years.
466
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,180
Correct. Why?
467
00:19:22,740 --> 00:19:24,000
- Well, that's a really hard question.
468
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,210
That's not a a a, a softball question.
469
00:19:27,210 --> 00:19:28,470
And I wanna be honest with you.
470
00:19:28,470 --> 00:19:30,240
So, you know, I teach here at Stanford
471
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,280
and sometimes I teach
about Russian politics,
472
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,740
and I show that chart
of a thousand years of,
473
00:19:34,740 --> 00:19:36,180
and I show the Freedom House scores.
474
00:19:36,180 --> 00:19:37,860
And it's all autocratic, autocratic
475
00:19:37,860 --> 00:19:39,540
with those two blips that you mentioned.
476
00:19:39,540 --> 00:19:44,340
Right? And so, other scholars argue with,
477
00:19:44,340 --> 00:19:46,440
and they have a lot of data
to support their hypothesis,
478
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:50,370
that there must be some
cultural proclivity towards
479
00:19:50,370 --> 00:19:51,960
autocracy among the Russians.
480
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:55,560
Right. And I want to be
really sincere with you.
481
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:58,445
I used to flatly reject
those kind of arguments
482
00:19:58,445 --> 00:19:59,460
and those arguments we used
483
00:19:59,460 --> 00:20:01,500
to make about Germans and the Japanese.
484
00:20:01,500 --> 00:20:04,350
Yes. And by the way, I,
I, there's another course,
485
00:20:04,350 --> 00:20:06,330
I teach a course on
democracy and development.
486
00:20:06,330 --> 00:20:09,540
There was even a prominent
professor here at Stanford 40
487
00:20:09,540 --> 00:20:10,800
years ago that said,
488
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:14,160
Catholic countries have a
proclivity towards autocracy.
489
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:18,060
'cause we all love the pope.
I was, I was raised Catholic.
490
00:20:18,060 --> 00:20:19,980
And then that there was
a correlation, right?
491
00:20:19,980 --> 00:20:21,450
Latin America was all Catholic.
492
00:20:21,450 --> 00:20:22,590
Southern Europe was Catholic.
493
00:20:22,590 --> 00:20:24,450
It turned out that was a stupid argument.
494
00:20:24,450 --> 00:20:27,240
So I've, in this structure
versus agency debate,
495
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:28,470
culture is hard, isn't it?
496
00:20:28,470 --> 00:20:32,760
But culture is sticky. It
doesn't, it doesn't fade away.
497
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:36,330
And, and two things I would
say about the Russia case.
498
00:20:36,330 --> 00:20:41,280
One, they didn't have
the hard break in 1991
499
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:42,900
with their Soviet history.
500
00:20:42,900 --> 00:20:45,510
So the Germans through tragedy.
501
00:20:45,510 --> 00:20:47,830
But that necessity,
they had the heartbreak.
502
00:20:47,830 --> 00:20:49,000
And we had Nuremberg trials
503
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,420
and we said, Nazis are not
gonna be part of the future.
504
00:20:52,420 --> 00:20:54,400
They didn't do that in
81. They were afraid.
505
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:56,710
Yeltsin was afraid. I,
I, I, I interviewed,
506
00:20:56,710 --> 00:20:57,970
I did a book about this.
507
00:20:57,970 --> 00:20:59,830
They were afraid of
that. If it went too fast
508
00:20:59,830 --> 00:21:02,500
and too hard against the KGB, that might,
509
00:21:03,370 --> 00:21:05,470
that might spur a counter revolution.
510
00:21:05,470 --> 00:21:07,270
And as a result of that,
511
00:21:07,270 --> 00:21:09,940
a guy like Putin can
come along from the KGB,
512
00:21:09,940 --> 00:21:11,140
by the way, remember that.
513
00:21:11,140 --> 00:21:14,410
And can use part of that history to say
514
00:21:14,410 --> 00:21:15,850
and blame it all on the west.
515
00:21:15,850 --> 00:21:17,440
And, and back to our roots.
516
00:21:19,005 --> 00:21:22,120
I, I still believe in the
power of agency to change.
517
00:21:22,120 --> 00:21:24,970
I still believe in socioeconomic
development, right?
518
00:21:24,970 --> 00:21:27,790
Countries that get rich tend
to become more democratic.
519
00:21:27,790 --> 00:21:29,920
Even used to be 500 years ago,
520
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:31,210
the whole world was autocratic.
521
00:21:31,210 --> 00:21:32,650
Right? Now that's not true.
522
00:21:32,650 --> 00:21:36,010
Richest countries where
you also see freedom.
523
00:21:36,010 --> 00:21:40,090
But since Putin launched
his full scale invasion
524
00:21:40,090 --> 00:21:44,890
of Ukraine in 2022 started,
first one was 14, then 20, 22.
525
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,490
I gotta tell you honestly, I am less,
526
00:21:50,230 --> 00:21:53,110
I'm more skeptical about my
own arguments about agency
527
00:21:53,110 --> 00:21:57,100
and institutions because
I see the atrocities
528
00:21:57,100 --> 00:22:01,960
that Russians are executing and
implementing inside Ukraine.
529
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:05,500
It's not just Putin. And he has managed
530
00:22:05,500 --> 00:22:08,500
to use these cultural
imperial narratives of some
531
00:22:08,500 --> 00:22:10,810
of the people you invoked already, to say,
532
00:22:10,810 --> 00:22:11,890
this is who we are.
533
00:22:11,890 --> 00:22:13,960
And we're naturally, you know,
534
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:15,670
this is naturally our territory.
535
00:22:16,690 --> 00:22:19,090
And I'll, I'll tell you the
moment when it really hit me.
536
00:22:19,090 --> 00:22:21,550
I still have Russians who
are small de Democrats,
537
00:22:21,550 --> 00:22:24,430
small L liberals, you know,
Alex, a Navalny hiss wife.
538
00:22:24,430 --> 00:22:27,010
She's a friend of mine.
I, I know the opposition.
539
00:22:27,010 --> 00:22:31,630
They're just as committed to
democracy, I think as I am.
540
00:22:31,630 --> 00:22:35,680
But I was having this argument
with President Zelensky,
541
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,150
chief of staff at the time.
542
00:22:37,150 --> 00:22:39,760
His name's Andre Yak. And, and
543
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,170
- This is before or after the invasion?
544
00:22:41,170 --> 00:22:42,940
- After the invasion.
Alright. And we're talking,
545
00:22:43,900 --> 00:22:46,660
I've had a lot of connectivity
with the Ukrainians.
546
00:22:46,660 --> 00:22:49,180
We've been doing our leadership
program here at Stanford
547
00:22:49,180 --> 00:22:50,410
for 20 years of Ukrainians.
548
00:22:50,410 --> 00:22:52,900
About 250 Ukrainians have
gone through this program.
549
00:22:52,900 --> 00:22:54,550
So I know a lot of these people.
550
00:22:54,550 --> 00:22:56,560
I brought President Zelensky here in 2021.
551
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:57,910
In fact, nobody remembers,
552
00:22:57,910 --> 00:22:59,620
'cause nobody knew who he was back then.
553
00:22:59,620 --> 00:23:01,330
A year later, a year later, he,
554
00:23:01,330 --> 00:23:03,370
we would've been much bigger crowds.
555
00:23:03,370 --> 00:23:05,170
But we're kind of arguing about this.
556
00:23:05,170 --> 00:23:07,420
And is there any hope with the democratic
557
00:23:07,420 --> 00:23:08,710
opposition, the Russians?
558
00:23:08,710 --> 00:23:12,520
And he played for me
this tape of a soldier
559
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,280
who had just committed
these atrocities in a
560
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:16,930
suburb of Kyiv called
561
00:23:16,930 --> 00:23:18,250
- Bucha. A Russian
562
00:23:18,250 --> 00:23:19,250
- Soldier.
563
00:23:19,250 --> 00:23:21,160
A Russian soldier. And it was a phone call
564
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:22,900
to his girlfriend, I think in like
565
00:23:22,900 --> 00:23:25,030
Barcelona who was shopping.
566
00:23:25,030 --> 00:23:26,895
And we were arguing
about sanctions, right?
567
00:23:26,895 --> 00:23:28,420
And, and the question was,
568
00:23:28,420 --> 00:23:32,980
should a whole society be
punished for what Putin is doing?
569
00:23:32,980 --> 00:23:34,960
And the opposition says, that's not fair.
570
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:36,670
And Andre was saying,
571
00:23:36,670 --> 00:23:38,800
'cause I was involved in
writing papers about this.
572
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:40,480
He says, listen to this tape.
573
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,750
And he was proud of the atrocities.
574
00:23:43,750 --> 00:23:46,370
And he was like, Mike should
have people with girl.
575
00:23:46,370 --> 00:23:48,290
And the girlfriend was applauding him.
576
00:23:48,290 --> 00:23:50,900
I'm not gonna go into the
details of his horrors.
577
00:23:50,900 --> 00:23:53,960
It's, it's not proper
for your television show.
578
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:56,750
But it was just awful.
579
00:23:56,750 --> 00:23:58,370
And that made me rethink, you know,
580
00:23:58,370 --> 00:24:01,460
maybe these cultural things
are stickier than I understand.
581
00:24:01,460 --> 00:24:04,460
And I would add to that propaganda works.
582
00:24:04,460 --> 00:24:05,750
Like if you control everything,
583
00:24:05,750 --> 00:24:07,520
you can make people believe things
584
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,590
that are not true. And
Putin's done that. So,
585
00:24:09,590 --> 00:24:11,960
- Okay, so you've, you've raised Ukraine,
586
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:15,020
you write the book.
587
00:24:15,020 --> 00:24:16,820
The book came out in October.
You worked on it for a long.
588
00:24:16,820 --> 00:24:18,740
So I wonder if these
figures need to be revised.
589
00:24:18,740 --> 00:24:19,910
But you write of the casualties
590
00:24:19,910 --> 00:24:23,540
that the Russias suffered
since the 2022 invasion
591
00:24:23,540 --> 00:24:25,580
and you cite 700,000.
592
00:24:25,580 --> 00:24:28,580
And I looked it up to see
if it needed to be updated.
593
00:24:28,580 --> 00:24:31,070
And it turns out, of course
it does. Nobody trusts that.
594
00:24:31,070 --> 00:24:32,960
Well, yeah, nobody knows. Exactly.
595
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:34,130
Nobody knows because
the Russians are gonna
596
00:24:34,130 --> 00:24:35,155
be telling the truth about it.
597
00:24:35,155 --> 00:24:38,660
Correct. But the lowest
figure for casualties
598
00:24:38,660 --> 00:24:42,200
that I could find, the
lowest figure was 200,000.
599
00:24:43,580 --> 00:24:45,470
So Putin has somehow
600
00:24:45,470 --> 00:24:48,980
or other been able to push
601
00:24:50,150 --> 00:24:54,110
200,000 Russian men to their deaths.
602
00:24:54,110 --> 00:24:57,380
- Yeah.
- And then you write
603
00:24:57,380 --> 00:25:00,350
that the Russian military machine now
604
00:25:00,350 --> 00:25:03,050
is more powerful than it was before.
605
00:25:03,050 --> 00:25:05,870
And so here's the question.
606
00:25:05,870 --> 00:25:08,270
I I, I mean, I don't, don't wanna get into
607
00:25:08,270 --> 00:25:09,740
deep history or psychology.
608
00:25:09,740 --> 00:25:14,000
We, but how does the
command structure work?
609
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:15,415
How is he capable?
610
00:25:15,415 --> 00:25:17,480
- Yeah.
- Of the whole country.
611
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,160
I know he controls the media,
612
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,820
but you, you have 700,000 casualties.
613
00:25:22,820 --> 00:25:25,730
At least 200,000 of them
are outright deaths.
614
00:25:25,730 --> 00:25:27,080
- Yeah.
- That's a couple
615
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,660
of hundred thousand families
across the country who've lost
616
00:25:29,660 --> 00:25:31,010
sons in Ukraine.
617
00:25:31,010 --> 00:25:32,930
People in Russia know what's going on.
618
00:25:32,930 --> 00:25:36,170
- Yeah.
- How does he continue to be capable
619
00:25:36,170 --> 00:25:40,400
of feeding human beings
into the grinder, let alone
620
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:44,840
of raising the money to,
for the new troop carriers,
621
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:46,550
for the new tanks, for the new drones.
622
00:25:46,550 --> 00:25:49,430
Right. How does this thing
work? How can he make it work?
623
00:25:50,300 --> 00:25:52,880
- Well, the first answer is
it's not working very well.
624
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:56,780
Right? Because on the eve of
the war, Russia had the second
625
00:25:56,780 --> 00:25:59,510
or third, third largest army in the world.
626
00:25:59,510 --> 00:26:01,955
And people we all thought, you know, did
627
00:26:02,930 --> 00:26:04,880
that they were gonna walk to
Kiev in two or three weeks.
628
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,980
Right. That turned out not to be true.
629
00:26:06,980 --> 00:26:10,280
I hope Xi Jinping is studying
that too with his, his army.
630
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:11,750
'cause it looks really big on paper,
631
00:26:11,750 --> 00:26:13,970
but you know, it has never been tested.
632
00:26:13,970 --> 00:26:16,880
Same with his Navy. I hope
he's learning those lessons.
633
00:26:17,870 --> 00:26:20,090
But the second piece is
how did he sustain it?
634
00:26:20,090 --> 00:26:21,650
Which is truly remarkable.
635
00:26:21,650 --> 00:26:23,540
And I would say tragic, of course. Right?
636
00:26:25,130 --> 00:26:28,430
One is control of independent media.
637
00:26:28,430 --> 00:26:31,070
So he chased everybody
out or arrested them.
638
00:26:31,070 --> 00:26:33,920
And then he, he later killed the leader
639
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,110
of the opposition, Alex a Navalny.
640
00:26:36,110 --> 00:26:38,780
And that has a sobering
effect on your ability
641
00:26:38,780 --> 00:26:42,050
to protest when you are
jailed or people are killed.
642
00:26:43,350 --> 00:26:48,350
Number two, he has been, you know,
643
00:26:48,630 --> 00:26:50,910
in terms of his domestic politics,
644
00:26:50,910 --> 00:26:54,180
smart about taking these
soldiers primarily from
645
00:26:54,180 --> 00:26:55,620
rural places.
646
00:26:55,620 --> 00:26:58,350
The ethnic republics not
masculine, St. Petersburg. Right.
647
00:26:58,350 --> 00:26:59,850
And by the way, we have
a little history of
648
00:26:59,850 --> 00:27:01,020
that here in AM America.
649
00:27:01,020 --> 00:27:04,350
Right? So they're from more poor regions.
650
00:27:04,350 --> 00:27:07,440
And the, the, the pay,
the payout if your son
651
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:11,280
or daughter mostly sons is
killed, is extraordinary.
652
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:16,280
So in a culture, especially
some of the Muslim republics,
653
00:27:16,500 --> 00:27:20,700
if your son sacrifices for
the good of the family,
654
00:27:20,700 --> 00:27:22,410
then they're honored and reved.
655
00:27:22,410 --> 00:27:24,600
So that's another piece of the puzzle.
656
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:28,950
And then how he finances it,
that's on, that's on the world.
657
00:27:28,950 --> 00:27:32,340
Like, you know, we continue,
not we United States
658
00:27:32,340 --> 00:27:34,230
- Buying their oil,
- Buy the oil and gas, buying
659
00:27:34,230 --> 00:27:35,760
- Natural
- Gas, you know,
660
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:39,510
thank sanctions have made
it more costly to buy that.
661
00:27:39,510 --> 00:27:41,070
So there's a discount rate,
662
00:27:41,070 --> 00:27:42,660
but the Chinese are still buying it
663
00:27:42,660 --> 00:27:44,460
and they're still bringing,
and even some European
664
00:27:44,460 --> 00:27:46,560
countries are still buying it.
665
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:48,240
And that's how he finances it.
666
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:52,860
- Okay? Moving, was
edging toward China here.
667
00:27:52,860 --> 00:27:54,270
- Okay.
- You know, everything.
668
00:27:54,270 --> 00:27:57,180
So it's a, i I don't
know as much about China.
669
00:27:57,180 --> 00:27:58,860
That's why it took me so
long to write the book.
670
00:27:58,860 --> 00:28:00,210
Oh, is that so learn about China? Yes.
671
00:28:01,860 --> 00:28:05,310
Elbridge kolby co-authors
an article in March, 2023,
672
00:28:05,310 --> 00:28:07,860
Elbridge Kolby, who's now under Secretary
673
00:28:07,860 --> 00:28:08,880
of Defense for policy.
674
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:12,000
- Yes.
- A couple quotations from that article.
675
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:15,720
Our concentration on Ukraine
has undermined our ability
676
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:20,250
to address the situation in
Asia, especially around Taiwan.
677
00:28:20,250 --> 00:28:22,230
American larges is not unlimited.
678
00:28:22,230 --> 00:28:26,040
America must focus on China
and deterring war over Taiwan.
679
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,370
The solution for European
countries, especially Germany, is
680
00:28:29,370 --> 00:28:32,160
to take the lead in supporting Ukraine.
681
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,740
Close quote. Now that strikes me.
682
00:28:34,740 --> 00:28:38,370
I mean this is a, that strikes
me as a Prudential question.
683
00:28:38,370 --> 00:28:40,980
And Elbridge Colby, he's
become controversial
684
00:28:40,980 --> 00:28:42,570
among Republicans, oddly enough.
685
00:28:42,570 --> 00:28:45,540
To me it's odd as though
there's some ideological.
686
00:28:45,540 --> 00:28:47,070
He's on some sort of group. He's just
687
00:28:47,070 --> 00:28:48,210
making a prudential point.
688
00:28:48,210 --> 00:28:50,160
- Yes,
- Our resources are limited.
689
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:51,450
Here's the chief threat.
690
00:28:51,450 --> 00:28:53,340
We should swing them in this direction.
691
00:28:53,340 --> 00:28:54,930
That strikes me as plausible. Yeah.
692
00:28:54,930 --> 00:28:56,010
I don't, I'm not in a position
693
00:28:56,010 --> 00:28:57,270
to evaluate whether it's correct.
694
00:28:57,270 --> 00:28:58,270
What do you make of it?
695
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,320
- So I agree with half
and half. I disagree.
696
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,240
Alright, so bridge Colby,
I don't know him well,
697
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:04,500
but I know his work well.
698
00:29:04,500 --> 00:29:06,480
He's wrote a great book about strategy
699
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:07,830
of denial or something like that.
700
00:29:07,830 --> 00:29:09,510
And I quoted him my
book, just so you know,
701
00:29:09,510 --> 00:29:11,160
I quote bridge several times,
702
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,260
especially about this limited resources
703
00:29:13,260 --> 00:29:14,460
thing. 'cause he is right about that.
704
00:29:14,460 --> 00:29:17,070
- Right?
- We can't do everything all the time.
705
00:29:17,070 --> 00:29:18,450
And we didn't.
706
00:29:18,450 --> 00:29:20,760
There's a mythology that
we could in the Cold War.
707
00:29:21,630 --> 00:29:24,090
We actually didn't, but we
most certainly can't today.
708
00:29:24,090 --> 00:29:25,140
So we have to make choices.
709
00:29:26,340 --> 00:29:31,340
And I think his focus on
preventing war over Taiwan,
710
00:29:31,710 --> 00:29:35,070
that is a paramount American
national security interest.
711
00:29:35,070 --> 00:29:36,660
I agree a hundred percent with that.
712
00:29:36,660 --> 00:29:39,480
And I have big sections in
my book for how to do that.
713
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:40,740
That I don't think bridge
714
00:29:40,740 --> 00:29:44,260
or people of his, the way of
thinking would disagree with.
715
00:29:44,260 --> 00:29:49,260
Where I don't agree with
them is that somehow
716
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,820
he doesn't see the connectivity
717
00:29:51,820 --> 00:29:54,520
between the war in Ukraine
and the war in Taiwan.
718
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:58,960
Whereas I do, if, if Putin, God forbid,
719
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,570
wins in Ukraine, gets to
conquer Dun yets, gets
720
00:30:01,570 --> 00:30:03,160
to take what he wants.
721
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:04,720
And we look weak there
722
00:30:05,770 --> 00:30:10,770
that will encourage Xi
Jinping to use military force
723
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:12,760
to take the island of Taiwan and
724
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,430
- Converse the defense of
Taiwan runs through Ukraine.
725
00:30:15,430 --> 00:30:16,750
- They're related. They're related.
726
00:30:16,750 --> 00:30:18,490
Because if the autocrats look strong
727
00:30:18,490 --> 00:30:21,400
and we look weak, that's the opposite
728
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:22,540
of peace through strength.
729
00:30:22,540 --> 00:30:26,170
Right? A phrase that comes
from the Reagan administration
730
00:30:26,170 --> 00:30:28,150
that the Trump team likes to quote,
731
00:30:28,150 --> 00:30:29,560
that looks like weakness.
732
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:31,570
And if you look weak in Ukraine,
733
00:30:31,570 --> 00:30:33,460
you look weak o other places.
734
00:30:33,460 --> 00:30:35,890
You know, when we fell
in southeast Asia, right?
735
00:30:35,890 --> 00:30:39,790
When we lost Vietnam, suddenly Angola
736
00:30:39,790 --> 00:30:41,410
and Mozambique were falling too,
737
00:30:41,410 --> 00:30:44,350
because we were looking
weak around the world.
738
00:30:44,350 --> 00:30:47,290
And that, that era of
the Nixon era, you know,
739
00:30:47,290 --> 00:30:48,850
in the late seventies, that's
a decade to come out of.
740
00:30:48,850 --> 00:30:50,710
It took a long time to come out of.
741
00:30:50,710 --> 00:30:53,380
And we had to look strong
to get out of that.
742
00:30:53,380 --> 00:30:56,920
The other thing I would say,
if we win in Ukraine, then
743
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,860
that deters Xi Jinping,
it makes 'em think harder
744
00:30:59,860 --> 00:31:02,620
because the West looks strong.
745
00:31:02,620 --> 00:31:04,870
But don't believe me, go to Taiwan.
746
00:31:04,870 --> 00:31:06,550
I was just there three months ago.
747
00:31:06,550 --> 00:31:09,850
And what you'll see in the
government offices are Ukrainian
748
00:31:09,850 --> 00:31:13,000
flags because they get this connection.
749
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,880
They understand that these
things are intertwined.
750
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:19,060
So the ballots has to shift.
Europeans have to do more.
751
00:31:19,060 --> 00:31:21,790
You know, we've been
saying that for a decade
752
00:31:21,790 --> 00:31:23,440
and I'm, I'm with President Trump on this.
753
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:24,820
They've gotta do more, they have
754
00:31:24,820 --> 00:31:26,290
to do more for their defense.
755
00:31:26,290 --> 00:31:29,020
So do our allies in Asia too, by the way.
756
00:31:29,020 --> 00:31:30,370
I think that is right.
757
00:31:30,370 --> 00:31:33,700
But they have to do it
in concert with us, not
758
00:31:33,700 --> 00:31:34,780
with us withdrawing.
759
00:31:34,780 --> 00:31:37,420
Because if we look weak,
760
00:31:37,420 --> 00:31:39,460
we are the most powerful
country in the world.
761
00:31:39,460 --> 00:31:41,290
And we are most certainly
the most powerful
762
00:31:41,290 --> 00:31:42,940
country of the free world.
763
00:31:42,940 --> 00:31:46,780
If we look weak, if we look
feckless in one domain,
764
00:31:46,780 --> 00:31:48,880
that could encourage autocrats
765
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:49,990
to make mistakes in the other.
766
00:31:49,990 --> 00:31:53,530
And it doesn't mean that Xi
Jinping will conquer Taiwan,
767
00:31:53,530 --> 00:31:55,300
that that could be a huge fight.
768
00:31:55,300 --> 00:31:57,790
But it might encourage him to take
769
00:31:57,790 --> 00:31:59,920
that risky behavior if
it looks like we are
770
00:31:59,920 --> 00:32:00,920
- Retreating.
771
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:02,170
Alright, Taiwan next,
772
00:32:02,170 --> 00:32:04,240
but just a closing
question on Ukraine, then.
773
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,720
The Trump administration has
sanctions on Russia's energy
774
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,900
sector then, as best I
can tell, we're continuing
775
00:32:10,900 --> 00:32:13,270
to supply weapons to Ukraine,
776
00:32:13,270 --> 00:32:16,330
but now we're selling
them to the Europeans
777
00:32:16,330 --> 00:32:19,570
who actually supply
the weapons to Ukraine.
778
00:32:19,570 --> 00:32:21,400
What else should the
Trump administration do?
779
00:32:23,350 --> 00:32:24,610
- Well, a couple of things.
780
00:32:24,610 --> 00:32:27,940
One, president likes to talk
a lot about birding churn.
781
00:32:27,940 --> 00:32:29,530
And I'm with him on that.
782
00:32:29,530 --> 00:32:31,750
I think we should share the burden
783
00:32:31,750 --> 00:32:36,010
of defending the democratic
sovereign country of Ukraine.
784
00:32:36,010 --> 00:32:38,960
Not just make it the Europeans
troops on the ground.
785
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:40,760
No, no, no, no, no. I
just think, you know,
786
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:42,440
we should not be making money off
787
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:44,030
of a war unless we're trying to, I see.
788
00:32:44,030 --> 00:32:45,230
We have some skin in the game.
789
00:32:45,230 --> 00:32:46,550
- I see. So that's one
- Thing I would,
790
00:32:46,550 --> 00:32:49,250
- Number two, in other words,
supply the, the arms directly.
791
00:32:49,250 --> 00:32:50,390
Don't sell them to the Europeans
792
00:32:50,390 --> 00:32:52,010
- And do both, but, but be in the game.
793
00:32:52,010 --> 00:32:53,870
Be part of a coalition supporting them,
794
00:32:53,870 --> 00:32:55,130
not just on the sidelines.
795
00:32:55,130 --> 00:32:56,210
- Yeah.
- Second,
796
00:32:56,210 --> 00:32:57,500
there are way more things we could do on
797
00:32:57,500 --> 00:32:58,910
sanctions if we wanted to.
798
00:32:58,910 --> 00:33:01,340
So I would encourage more sanctions.
799
00:33:01,340 --> 00:33:02,990
But third, the most important thing,
800
00:33:03,980 --> 00:33:05,480
I applaud President Trump
801
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:08,060
for saying, I want to end this war.
802
00:33:08,060 --> 00:33:09,890
The previous administration did no
803
00:33:09,890 --> 00:33:11,690
negotiations to try to end the war.
804
00:33:11,690 --> 00:33:13,100
I even support him.
805
00:33:13,100 --> 00:33:17,870
And, and here I'm, I'm more
lonely when he said, we have
806
00:33:17,870 --> 00:33:19,820
to talk to the Russians
to negotiate, like,
807
00:33:19,820 --> 00:33:20,930
how are you gonna end the war if you're
808
00:33:20,930 --> 00:33:22,820
just talking to the Ukrainians?
809
00:33:22,820 --> 00:33:25,400
I think those were bold
moves that had to be done.
810
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,070
Where I think he has misread Putin,
811
00:33:28,070 --> 00:33:30,440
although I'm still optimistic
he might get on the right
812
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,290
track, is he and his special envoy.
813
00:33:33,290 --> 00:33:37,400
Mr. Whir thought that I'll
just listen to Putin, I'll hear
814
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,410
what he needs and then
I'll tell the Ukrainians
815
00:33:39,410 --> 00:33:40,940
to do it and we'll end the war.
816
00:33:40,940 --> 00:33:44,930
And what happened instead,
Putin saw that as weakness
817
00:33:44,930 --> 00:33:47,270
and he just pocketed their concessions.
818
00:33:47,270 --> 00:33:49,940
And then he asked for more.
And the biggest ask was,
819
00:33:49,940 --> 00:33:52,520
he said, I can't conquer Donbas.
820
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:54,260
That's a part of Eastern U Ukraine.
821
00:33:54,260 --> 00:33:57,650
He's been trying since 2014.
He's failed. Think about that.
822
00:33:57,650 --> 00:33:58,790
So then he said, Mr.
823
00:33:58,790 --> 00:34:01,550
President, I need you to
put pressure on Zelensky
824
00:34:01,550 --> 00:34:02,900
to give me donbas.
825
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,980
And that just is a reflection
of, of Putin thinking
826
00:34:06,980 --> 00:34:10,070
that he can maneuver the
Trump administration.
827
00:34:10,070 --> 00:34:11,600
So I think, and then there are signs
828
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:13,670
by the way that this is happening.
829
00:34:13,670 --> 00:34:15,950
I think if we can push back on 'em,
830
00:34:15,950 --> 00:34:18,050
coercive diplomacy is part of diplomacy.
831
00:34:18,050 --> 00:34:20,540
It's not just carrots.
You gotta have sticks.
832
00:34:20,540 --> 00:34:22,640
And I would just like to see the balance
833
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:24,950
of those things shift a
little more towards sticks.
834
00:34:24,950 --> 00:34:27,020
- Mike. I said I wanna
turn to Taiwan and I do.
835
00:34:27,020 --> 00:34:31,520
But it feels to me, I'm
gonna put this very crudely
836
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:32,960
because I'm just a layman watching it
837
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:34,550
all happen from a distance.
838
00:34:34,550 --> 00:34:36,860
But it feels to me as though Donald Trump
839
00:34:36,860 --> 00:34:39,500
and his friend from New York Whitcoff
840
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:42,650
looked at Vladimir Putin
and said, we've, we,
841
00:34:42,650 --> 00:34:44,360
we recognize this kind of guy.
842
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:45,890
This is one of the big real estate guys in
843
00:34:45,890 --> 00:34:47,030
New York and Manhattan.
844
00:34:47,030 --> 00:34:48,470
Yes. We get rough with each other.
845
00:34:48,470 --> 00:34:50,600
Then we get into a room and
decide what everybody needs.
846
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:52,430
Yes. And we do a deal. Yes.
847
00:34:52,430 --> 00:34:54,230
Because this is a human
being with interest.
848
00:34:54,230 --> 00:34:55,850
He's a tough guy, but he has interest.
849
00:34:57,470 --> 00:34:59,240
And Vladimir, now I'm asking you this
850
00:34:59,240 --> 00:35:02,060
because you have sat at a
table with Vladimir Putin.
851
00:35:02,060 --> 00:35:05,180
He's not that kind of
person. Exactly. What does he
852
00:35:05,180 --> 00:35:06,180
- Want?
853
00:35:06,180 --> 00:35:08,990
So you just, that was a
great metaphor by the way.
854
00:35:08,990 --> 00:35:10,580
'cause when I was in
the government and, and
855
00:35:10,580 --> 00:35:11,960
before I was in the government and
856
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:15,590
after, there are so
many leaders, Democrats
857
00:35:15,590 --> 00:35:20,120
and Republicans that said,
Putin's just a deal maker.
858
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,610
He's a transactional guy.
Oh, he's a transactional guy.
859
00:35:22,610 --> 00:35:24,835
We can do a deal with him.
Right. All he wants to
860
00:35:24,835 --> 00:35:25,760
- Money the deal easy. Yeah.
861
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:27,950
- And the deal. And he, he
bought him all, he wants money.
862
00:35:27,950 --> 00:35:30,170
He, that's what he does. And I think,
863
00:35:30,170 --> 00:35:32,905
and maybe even I had that
reading of him 20 years ago, I,
864
00:35:32,905 --> 00:35:34,850
I don't, I don't want to check myself,
865
00:35:34,850 --> 00:35:38,790
but I know for sure that he's
not just looking for a deal.
866
00:35:38,790 --> 00:35:40,530
He's an ideologue.
867
00:35:40,530 --> 00:35:44,940
He is motivated by his ideas, his ideas,
868
00:35:44,940 --> 00:35:46,800
his imperial ideas.
869
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:47,820
And he doesn't care.
870
00:35:47,820 --> 00:35:50,640
We just talked about if it was
just cost benefit analysis,
871
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:53,700
he wouldn't let a million
Russians be killed
872
00:35:53,700 --> 00:35:54,930
or wounded on the battlefield.
873
00:35:54,930 --> 00:35:58,290
That's pretty irrational for
inches of territory. Yes.
874
00:35:58,290 --> 00:36:00,000
I mean, everybody go look at the map
875
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,150
and see how little he's
expanded for that cost.
876
00:36:03,150 --> 00:36:05,700
That's not a guy doing
cost benefit analysis.
877
00:36:05,700 --> 00:36:08,010
It's a guy motivated.
878
00:36:08,010 --> 00:36:09,600
He wants to be Peter the great, he wants
879
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:12,000
to be Catherine the great, he
wants to be known as the guy
880
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,160
that expanded the Russian empire.
881
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:16,560
And he's willing to take whatever cost it,
882
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:18,630
it needs to be that person.
883
00:36:18,630 --> 00:36:20,910
- So this, we'll, we'll turn to China now,
884
00:36:20,910 --> 00:36:23,640
but to me, this is one of the
basic lessons of your book.
885
00:36:24,780 --> 00:36:25,860
You don't put it this way.
886
00:36:25,860 --> 00:36:27,510
And so correct me if I'm wrong,
887
00:36:28,380 --> 00:36:31,290
but we are forced to do
business in this great big world
888
00:36:31,290 --> 00:36:35,040
with people who really
and truly are not like us.
889
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,530
- Correct. Alright. Can I
tell you one story about that?
890
00:36:37,530 --> 00:36:39,300
Of course. You can cut it
if you don't wanna use it.
891
00:36:39,300 --> 00:36:43,080
But when this became
really apparent to me,
892
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,570
remember I've known Putin,
I met Putin in 1991.
893
00:36:45,570 --> 00:36:47,130
So we go way back.
894
00:36:47,130 --> 00:36:48,330
We are not Facebook friends,
895
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:54,540
but I was, I traveled with Vice
President Biden in, in 2011.
896
00:36:54,540 --> 00:36:57,000
We were there by the way,
to get the Russians to agree
897
00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:58,980
with us, to use force
898
00:36:58,980 --> 00:37:01,290
to stop the slaughter
in Benghazi and Libya.
899
00:37:01,290 --> 00:37:02,550
And they abstained on that.
900
00:37:02,550 --> 00:37:05,460
So people forget a cooperative
time. Right? Right.
901
00:37:05,460 --> 00:37:07,200
Use of force. Un security council
902
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:08,700
resolution doesn't happen much.
903
00:37:08,700 --> 00:37:10,770
But there're arguing at
a table kinda like this.
904
00:37:10,770 --> 00:37:13,950
And at one point Putin leaned
in, so you're gonna be Biden,
905
00:37:13,950 --> 00:37:15,060
I'm not sure who you voted for,
906
00:37:15,060 --> 00:37:16,920
and I'm not gonna ask, I'm gonna be Putin.
907
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:18,900
So I'm, I'm really going out on them.
908
00:37:18,900 --> 00:37:22,230
And he leaned in and he said,
he doesn't blink by the way.
909
00:37:22,230 --> 00:37:26,700
He said, you know what your
problem is, you look at us and
910
00:37:26,700 --> 00:37:28,050
because we look like you.
911
00:37:28,050 --> 00:37:29,700
And then he went like
this and he leaned back.
912
00:37:29,700 --> 00:37:33,540
He, everything he does very
dramatically, we look like you,
913
00:37:33,540 --> 00:37:36,450
you think that we think like you,
914
00:37:37,380 --> 00:37:41,250
but we don't, we are different from you.
915
00:37:42,750 --> 00:37:44,280
He said it and it was like, whoa.
916
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:47,190
And we were like, he wanted us to know.
917
00:37:47,190 --> 00:37:48,450
We don't think like you.
918
00:37:48,450 --> 00:37:52,140
And we, time and time again,
hope that a guy like Putin
919
00:37:52,140 --> 00:37:53,610
or Xi Jinping might think like
920
00:37:53,610 --> 00:37:54,990
us, but they don't. They don't.
921
00:37:54,990 --> 00:37:59,160
- Alright. That is fascinating.
So he's aware of it himself.
922
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:00,540
He's very self-conscious
about it. Yes, yes.
923
00:38:00,540 --> 00:38:04,170
He's even using al autocrats
versus Democrats Again,
924
00:38:04,170 --> 00:38:07,350
you have this fascinating
passage in which you describe
925
00:38:07,350 --> 00:38:10,380
mistakes we made about the
USSR during the Cold War
926
00:38:11,310 --> 00:38:12,360
and the risk that we make
927
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:13,800
of making the same mistakes about
928
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:15,150
China today. A couple of these.
929
00:38:15,150 --> 00:38:17,790
- Yes. - Yeah. First and
foremost, I'm quoting you first
930
00:38:17,790 --> 00:38:18,870
and foremost US leaders
931
00:38:18,870 --> 00:38:22,560
and society overestimated Soviet
932
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:24,330
military power.
933
00:38:26,100 --> 00:38:29,610
So, and okay. So there's that.
934
00:38:29,610 --> 00:38:32,070
And there's a long and complicated debate.
935
00:38:32,070 --> 00:38:35,890
I, I mean honestly, Mike, my
feeling was there were a lot
936
00:38:35,890 --> 00:38:38,650
of people who thought we were
overestimating the Soviet
937
00:38:38,650 --> 00:38:42,460
Union except the CIA, It was our intel.
938
00:38:42,460 --> 00:38:43,720
I mean, there were, you could point
939
00:38:43,720 --> 00:38:45,460
to specific points that That's very fair.
940
00:38:45,460 --> 00:38:48,160
That's very fair. Alright.
Alright. So we have China
941
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:49,840
that has built a deep water Navy.
942
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,630
Yeah. It's turned eight holes
into military bases throughout
943
00:38:52,630 --> 00:38:54,130
the South China Sea.
944
00:38:54,130 --> 00:38:57,520
It has produced ship killing
missiles in such numbers.
945
00:38:57,520 --> 00:38:59,110
I spoke to, you'd know him,
946
00:38:59,110 --> 00:39:00,970
but he didn't know I was gonna quote him.
947
00:39:00,970 --> 00:39:04,450
So I won't mention the name.
A former four star admiral
948
00:39:04,450 --> 00:39:08,800
and I asked if it comes to
a shooting war over Taiwan,
949
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,140
what role do our aircraft carriers play?
950
00:39:11,140 --> 00:39:12,250
Yeah. And he immediately said,
951
00:39:12,250 --> 00:39:16,180
our aircraft carriers
must remain 1000 miles
952
00:39:16,180 --> 00:39:17,710
away from the action.
953
00:39:17,710 --> 00:39:19,960
- Yeah.
- Because the China now has that kind of,
954
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:21,370
so they've pushed us back,
955
00:39:21,370 --> 00:39:24,430
we're already back at
the second island chain.
956
00:39:24,430 --> 00:39:27,310
So how is it that we
can risk overestimating
957
00:39:27,310 --> 00:39:29,410
Chinese military power?
958
00:39:29,410 --> 00:39:30,670
- Well, that's a great question.
959
00:39:30,670 --> 00:39:33,640
And, and I say we overestimate Chinese
960
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:35,380
power and then I break it down.
961
00:39:35,380 --> 00:39:37,930
Alright. Where I'm worried
is that we're overestimating
962
00:39:37,930 --> 00:39:40,030
what they're doing with nuclear weapons.
963
00:39:40,030 --> 00:39:43,660
But to your point on this
one, I agree completely.
964
00:39:43,660 --> 00:39:47,080
We are behind on this fight
and we need to spend more
965
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:49,090
and we gotta spend on smarter weapons
966
00:39:49,090 --> 00:39:52,570
and on missiles that can be
launched from the theater
967
00:39:52,570 --> 00:39:53,920
because we are outta date
968
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:55,900
and we need to be investing in sea drones.
969
00:39:55,900 --> 00:39:58,120
Okay. So by the way, the
Ukrainians could help us on that.
970
00:39:58,120 --> 00:39:59,265
If we got smart about it,
971
00:39:59,265 --> 00:40:00,190
- They, they now have the best
972
00:40:00,190 --> 00:40:01,315
drone technology in the world.
973
00:40:01,315 --> 00:40:04,120
- They including sea drone.
Including sea drones. Yes.
974
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:07,510
And on this point, you know,
I, I've, I give given a lot
975
00:40:07,510 --> 00:40:10,600
of book talks, mostly in
red states by the way.
976
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:12,850
I'm, I'm trying to go to
where I think it'll be harder.
977
00:40:13,870 --> 00:40:16,510
But when I, I have one slide
where I talk about this,
978
00:40:16,510 --> 00:40:18,760
the things that the Trump
administration is doing.
979
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:21,450
Right. And here I firmly
agree. We have to say only
980
00:40:21,450 --> 00:40:22,450
- One slide, Mike.
981
00:40:22,450 --> 00:40:25,510
- I I, well it's a, it's a
long talk. It's a long talk.
982
00:40:25,510 --> 00:40:28,300
But the, the, the, the piece
on the lessons piece, this is
983
00:40:28,300 --> 00:40:30,370
where I, I I say we, we've gotta learn,
984
00:40:30,370 --> 00:40:31,720
we gotta learn from our mistakes,
985
00:40:31,720 --> 00:40:33,580
but also learn from our successes.
986
00:40:33,580 --> 00:40:36,010
We did a lot of smart
things in the Cold War,
987
00:40:36,010 --> 00:40:38,470
and I have, I I go on about that.
988
00:40:38,470 --> 00:40:40,360
We have to spend more on military defense.
989
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:42,670
I actually think we're
under spending right now,
990
00:40:42,670 --> 00:40:44,890
even though we're getting
close to a trillion dollars.
991
00:40:44,890 --> 00:40:47,350
So the, and mostly on the
theater you're talking about,
992
00:40:47,350 --> 00:40:51,100
and mostly to, to defend Taiwan
against that kind of attack.
993
00:40:51,100 --> 00:40:54,010
- Okay? So two small countries,
994
00:40:54,010 --> 00:40:55,810
they're border hostile neighbors.
995
00:40:55,810 --> 00:41:00,810
Israel devotes almost 9% of
its GDP to defense. Right?
996
00:41:00,910 --> 00:41:03,580
Taiwan spends only about 3%
997
00:41:03,580 --> 00:41:07,960
of GDP on defense. Why isn't, that's not
998
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:08,960
- Enough.
999
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:09,793
- Why isn't Taiwan
1000
00:41:09,793 --> 00:41:10,790
- Okay?
1001
00:41:10,790 --> 00:41:13,510
Not enough? I they need
to be closer to Israel.
1002
00:41:13,510 --> 00:41:15,910
I write that in the book. They they are,
1003
00:41:15,910 --> 00:41:18,490
and we need to compel them to do that.
1004
00:41:18,490 --> 00:41:20,800
And we need to compel
them to do that in a way
1005
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:21,820
that's cooperative.
1006
00:41:21,820 --> 00:41:25,420
Right. If you do this,
we'll do these other things.
1007
00:41:25,420 --> 00:41:27,250
But they've gotta share
the burden on this.
1008
00:41:27,250 --> 00:41:29,650
And, and in many ways,
not just in weapons,
1009
00:41:29,650 --> 00:41:32,440
but on, on all kinds of things
1010
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:34,820
to help deter an attack.
1011
00:41:34,820 --> 00:41:38,210
- Do they know that?
- You know, that's a good question.
1012
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:41,660
I'm not an expert on Taiwan.
1013
00:41:41,660 --> 00:41:43,400
I've been there a couple
of times, including,
1014
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,830
we have a big group from Hoover
that goes from time to time,
1015
00:41:47,420 --> 00:41:49,190
Their neighborhood's a lot
more dangerous even than
1016
00:41:49,190 --> 00:41:51,020
Israel's second.
1017
00:41:51,020 --> 00:41:54,440
They should also extend their
military service that they're,
1018
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:56,600
they're, they didn't do enough on that.
1019
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:59,780
Third, they need to
have, you know, defense
1020
00:41:59,780 --> 00:42:01,220
of civilian defense.
1021
00:42:01,220 --> 00:42:02,450
They need people to practice to
1022
00:42:02,450 --> 00:42:04,340
what happens in terms of an invasion.
1023
00:42:04,340 --> 00:42:07,070
And they need to do all
that in concert with us.
1024
00:42:07,070 --> 00:42:09,140
I'd like to see us do more with them,
1025
00:42:09,140 --> 00:42:10,640
but we gotta do that cooperatively.
1026
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:14,060
They just can't rely on us for deterrence.
1027
00:42:14,060 --> 00:42:15,380
And if you do deterrence, right,
1028
00:42:15,380 --> 00:42:17,330
if you do all the things
we just talked about,
1029
00:42:17,330 --> 00:42:19,310
that's the best way to avoid
1030
00:42:19,310 --> 00:42:20,310
- War.
1031
00:42:20,310 --> 00:42:22,400
- Mm.
- And the Taiwanese know that.
1032
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:24,290
So here's what's in the back of my mind.
1033
00:42:24,290 --> 00:42:25,940
I know the situations are different in
1034
00:42:25,940 --> 00:42:27,170
many, in important regards.
1035
00:42:27,170 --> 00:42:29,960
And you'll, you'll probably
name two or three of those.
1036
00:42:31,460 --> 00:42:33,770
But the Chinese reabsorb Hong Kong
1037
00:42:33,770 --> 00:42:34,770
- Yeah.
1038
00:42:34,770 --> 00:42:36,650
- In violation of promises
1039
00:42:36,650 --> 00:42:39,530
to the British when the
British handed Hong Kong over.
1040
00:42:39,530 --> 00:42:42,950
- Right.
- And as best I can tell, there are a lot
1041
00:42:42,950 --> 00:42:46,310
of rich people in Hong
Kong and money Yeah.
1042
00:42:46,310 --> 00:42:50,060
Presents a certain amount of
power and a lot of them left.
1043
00:42:50,060 --> 00:42:53,240
Yeah. And a lot of 'em cut deals. Right.
1044
00:42:53,240 --> 00:42:55,850
And as best I can tell, only Jimmy Lai,
1045
00:42:55,850 --> 00:42:57,080
who is now in a Chinese
1046
00:42:57,080 --> 00:42:58,040
- Prison. Yeah.
1047
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:02,690
- And one or two others of this
business community of rich,
1048
00:43:02,690 --> 00:43:06,200
powerful people stood up to the Chinese.
1049
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,090
- Right.
- And then I look at Taiwan
1050
00:43:08,090 --> 00:43:11,300
and say, they're just
gonna wait to cut a deal.
1051
00:43:11,300 --> 00:43:13,430
That's why they're not
spending more on defense.
1052
00:43:13,430 --> 00:43:15,260
Tell me I'm wrong about this.
1053
00:43:15,260 --> 00:43:17,480
- Oh no, I'm not sure
you're wrong about that.
1054
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:22,460
Now, Taiwan political societies
deeply divided. Right?
1055
00:43:22,460 --> 00:43:25,400
They're, they have polarization
issues, I would say as great
1056
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,200
as we do here in the United States.
1057
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:28,910
So they, they don't all think alike.
1058
00:43:28,910 --> 00:43:32,960
And, and President LA is
much more resilient in terms
1059
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:36,680
of building up defenses than
the KMT, the opposition party.
1060
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:39,140
But the, the, your, I think to your point,
1061
00:43:39,140 --> 00:43:40,610
the business community
1062
00:43:40,610 --> 00:43:44,180
and society, the,
1063
00:43:44,180 --> 00:43:45,770
the anxiety about that.
1064
00:43:45,770 --> 00:43:48,650
And then capitulation
is something I sense.
1065
00:43:48,650 --> 00:43:50,570
I mean, I was just there a few months ago.
1066
00:43:50,570 --> 00:43:53,930
There's cer certainly a
view that we can get along
1067
00:43:53,930 --> 00:43:55,460
with these folks if we have to.
1068
00:43:55,460 --> 00:43:58,670
And that I think is
deeply, deeply dangerous
1069
00:43:58,670 --> 00:44:01,070
because things can happen.
1070
00:44:01,070 --> 00:44:04,280
I was gonna use a different
word that my mom uses in Montana
1071
00:44:05,510 --> 00:44:07,850
when war happens and
when pressure happens.
1072
00:44:07,850 --> 00:44:10,700
Right? And, and, and that the unintended
1073
00:44:10,700 --> 00:44:13,400
unanticipated consequences of some kind
1074
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:15,680
of coercive thing could be really bad
1075
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:16,750
for our security interests.
1076
00:44:16,750 --> 00:44:20,540
So my argument is invest
into deterrence now so
1077
00:44:20,540 --> 00:44:22,220
that we avoid war in the future.
1078
00:44:23,090 --> 00:44:24,500
- Bridge Colby says,
1079
00:44:24,500 --> 00:44:27,800
or said actually in an interview
on this show, but this is
1080
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,500
before, this is a couple years ago
1081
00:44:30,500 --> 00:44:31,830
before he, he went to the Pentagon.
1082
00:44:31,830 --> 00:44:34,680
So I don't want to attribute this to him
1083
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:37,380
as this current view,
but he said, the defense
1084
00:44:37,380 --> 00:44:40,410
of Taiwan is in our interest,
1085
00:44:40,410 --> 00:44:43,410
even if the Taiwanese don't care.
1086
00:44:43,410 --> 00:44:46,020
Would you go that far? I mean, is
1087
00:44:46,020 --> 00:44:47,280
- It sound as Yeah, that's interesting.
1088
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:49,170
I've never heard, heard
that phrase that way.
1089
00:44:49,170 --> 00:44:51,210
I mean, obviously it's
our security interest
1090
00:44:51,210 --> 00:44:54,990
because again, the, the
worst thing in the world
1091
00:44:54,990 --> 00:44:58,380
that could happen to the American
people is war with China.
1092
00:44:58,380 --> 00:45:02,070
And so all responsible national
security officials need
1093
00:45:02,070 --> 00:45:05,610
to think, what can we do
to avoid war with China?
1094
00:45:05,610 --> 00:45:07,890
'cause goodness knows
how that ends. Right?
1095
00:45:07,890 --> 00:45:09,360
That is not a scenario.
1096
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:10,740
And just think about the economy,
1097
00:45:10,740 --> 00:45:12,270
the global economy would collapse.
1098
00:45:12,270 --> 00:45:14,010
So we, and I, you know, I,
1099
00:45:14,010 --> 00:45:16,650
when I teach here at Stanford
about these things, I, I like
1100
00:45:16,650 --> 00:45:20,370
to remind my students about
what I call non-events.
1101
00:45:20,370 --> 00:45:23,100
We read a lot of books
about wars and revolutions
1102
00:45:23,100 --> 00:45:24,330
and elections outcomes.
1103
00:45:24,330 --> 00:45:27,120
Right? We don't read a
lot of books about the war
1104
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:29,490
that almost happened, the
revolution that almost happened,
1105
00:45:29,490 --> 00:45:31,140
the election that was almost won.
1106
00:45:31,140 --> 00:45:33,450
And the, and we forget
about those non-events.
1107
00:45:33,450 --> 00:45:36,660
I think the biggest non-event
of the Cold War was the war
1108
00:45:36,660 --> 00:45:38,310
that we didn't fight over time.
1109
00:45:38,310 --> 00:45:39,540
And that was brilliant.
1110
00:45:39,540 --> 00:45:43,290
And that was a mix of
coercion and diplomacy.
1111
00:45:43,290 --> 00:45:46,140
And that needs to be,
as I write in my book,
1112
00:45:46,140 --> 00:45:48,030
it's the paramount
national security interest
1113
00:45:48,030 --> 00:45:49,350
for the United States today.
1114
00:45:49,350 --> 00:45:51,300
I hadn't thought about if,
can we do it without the
1115
00:45:51,300 --> 00:45:53,790
Taiwanese like bridge
wrote, but we have to do it
1116
00:45:53,790 --> 00:45:55,590
because we just don't know
1117
00:45:55,590 --> 00:45:57,990
what would happen in a military conflict.
1118
00:45:57,990 --> 00:45:59,790
It could be very dire for us.
1119
00:45:59,790 --> 00:46:02,430
- CIA director William Burns in 2023,
1120
00:46:02,430 --> 00:46:05,550
US intelligence shows he's
arguing at this point,
1121
00:46:05,550 --> 00:46:06,660
Xi Jinping had quote,
1122
00:46:06,660 --> 00:46:10,320
instructed the People's Liberation
Army to be ready by 2027
1123
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:12,300
to conduct a successful invasion.
1124
00:46:12,300 --> 00:46:16,380
Close quote. Now that's next year. Yeah.
1125
00:46:16,380 --> 00:46:19,650
On the other hand, we
have in the news yesterday
1126
00:46:19,650 --> 00:46:24,300
that Xi Jinping has just
sacked his top general.
1127
00:46:24,300 --> 00:46:25,620
- Yes.
- And Frank Ditter,
1128
00:46:25,620 --> 00:46:28,770
our colleague at the Hoover
Institution, Frank Ditter, said
1129
00:46:28,770 --> 00:46:31,500
that the, the military
council is Xi Jinping
1130
00:46:31,500 --> 00:46:32,790
and six other members.
1131
00:46:32,790 --> 00:46:35,820
And Xi Jinping has now purged
five of those six. Yeah.
1132
00:46:36,750 --> 00:46:39,930
So you think to yourself,
maybe his military,
1133
00:46:39,930 --> 00:46:41,940
maybe his command structure
1134
00:46:41,940 --> 00:46:44,220
- Not ready for prime
- Time is not ready for prime time.
1135
00:46:44,220 --> 00:46:48,660
Yeah. Should we, so I'm just,
how worried should we be?
1136
00:46:50,070 --> 00:46:52,830
- Well, one, I would say to be ready
1137
00:46:52,830 --> 00:46:55,560
for invasion does not mean to invade.
1138
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:57,325
Correct. So these are two
different things. Number two,
1139
00:46:58,410 --> 00:47:00,780
we should keep investing in our military
1140
00:47:01,650 --> 00:47:03,330
and be the best in the world
1141
00:47:03,330 --> 00:47:05,670
because that's how you keep the peace.
1142
00:47:05,670 --> 00:47:08,400
Okay. And I think, you know,
Xi Jinping was watching
1143
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:10,230
what we just did in Venezuela,
1144
00:47:10,230 --> 00:47:12,330
an incredible military operation,
1145
00:47:12,330 --> 00:47:13,590
whether it was right or wrong.
1146
00:47:13,590 --> 00:47:14,940
And, you know, we can
talk about the politics
1147
00:47:14,940 --> 00:47:16,080
- Of it, combine that with taking out the
1148
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:17,460
Iranian nuclear program
1149
00:47:17,460 --> 00:47:18,930
- And, and add to that, right?
1150
00:47:18,930 --> 00:47:20,880
We are showing our capacity
1151
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:23,550
to do really hard military things.
1152
00:47:23,550 --> 00:47:26,310
The exact opposite of what
Putin's showing in Ukraine.
1153
00:47:26,310 --> 00:47:29,110
And if I were Xi Jinping
watching what we just did,
1154
00:47:29,110 --> 00:47:32,080
I would be think maybe we
gotta practice a little.
1155
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:34,030
Yeah. Maybe we, we gotta
do a little bit more
1156
00:47:34,030 --> 00:47:35,620
before we try to invade this island.
1157
00:47:35,620 --> 00:47:37,955
Alright. And that's a good
thing. We want him to think.
1158
00:47:37,955 --> 00:47:42,070
- Okay. So this brings
us to Mike, my old friend
1159
00:47:42,070 --> 00:47:43,690
Donald J. Trump.
1160
00:47:43,690 --> 00:47:46,840
And you are scathing on Donald Trump.
1161
00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:50,590
In your book, I'm just gonna
quote one passage here,
1162
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:54,580
autocrats versus Democrats,
over the next four years,
1163
00:47:54,580 --> 00:47:56,680
trump's United States could easily emerge
1164
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:59,500
as a greater threat to liberal
internationalism than Putin's
1165
00:47:59,500 --> 00:48:01,840
Russia or Xi China.
1166
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:06,580
Now what, what, go ahead
answer that. No, explain that.
1167
00:48:06,580 --> 00:48:09,190
Explain that. Pull.
1168
00:48:09,190 --> 00:48:10,270
Well, how can the President of the
1169
00:48:10,270 --> 00:48:13,570
United States, oh, go ahead.
Well, what's the argument?
1170
00:48:13,570 --> 00:48:14,770
- I wanna start with the good news.
1171
00:48:14,770 --> 00:48:19,390
So when I go through my lessons
of success from the Cold War
1172
00:48:19,390 --> 00:48:23,560
for today, we're doing two
things really, really well.
1173
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:25,270
One, we're spending on the military,
1174
00:48:25,270 --> 00:48:29,710
and two, our economy is
performing well. And those sort
1175
00:48:29,710 --> 00:48:31,060
- Surprisingly actually,
- Yes.
1176
00:48:31,060 --> 00:48:32,260
And, and I'm not an economist.
1177
00:48:32,260 --> 00:48:33,730
You have others that can talk about that.
1178
00:48:33,730 --> 00:48:36,880
But I can tell you from
lessons from the Cold War
1179
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:40,210
that those were two
incredibly important things
1180
00:48:40,210 --> 00:48:41,410
that helped us win the Cold War.
1181
00:48:41,410 --> 00:48:44,260
We outperformed the Soviets economically,
1182
00:48:44,260 --> 00:48:46,240
west Germany outperformed East Germany.
1183
00:48:46,240 --> 00:48:48,880
And those were really important
for us winning the Cold War.
1184
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:51,850
So I applaud that. Those are
the, the things I applaud.
1185
00:48:51,850 --> 00:48:56,230
Where I am nervous is
two, two different pieces.
1186
00:48:56,230 --> 00:49:01,030
One, we also had several
soft power instruments.
1187
00:49:01,030 --> 00:49:02,350
And I don't even like soft power,
1188
00:49:02,350 --> 00:49:04,090
I just call 'em power instruments
1189
00:49:04,090 --> 00:49:08,170
that helped us prevail in
the Cold War U-S-A-I-D, voice
1190
00:49:08,170 --> 00:49:12,430
of America Radio, Liberty
National Endowment for Democracy,
1191
00:49:12,430 --> 00:49:13,720
created by Ronald Reagan.
1192
00:49:13,720 --> 00:49:14,920
Those, and there were
1193
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:16,720
hypocritical and we did certain things.
1194
00:49:16,720 --> 00:49:17,710
You know, we're not gonna go through the
1195
00:49:17,710 --> 00:49:19,035
whole history of the Cold War.
1196
00:49:19,035 --> 00:49:23,980
Yeah. But those instruments of
power to support ideas, ideas
1197
00:49:23,980 --> 00:49:27,160
of freedom, ideas of
liberty, ideas of democracy,
1198
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:32,140
also helped us win the Cold
War and what we're doing now.
1199
00:49:32,140 --> 00:49:35,410
And then, and then the
last bucket Alliances.
1200
00:49:35,410 --> 00:49:36,820
At the end of the day,
1201
00:49:36,820 --> 00:49:39,760
our allies were way stronger
than anything the Soviets had.
1202
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:42,340
Right. They had to coerce their
allies to be on their side.
1203
00:49:42,340 --> 00:49:43,840
That's the part what I don't like
1204
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:46,360
U-S-A-I-D, we just blew up.
1205
00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:48,460
And U-S-A-I-D I've written three dozen
1206
00:49:48,460 --> 00:49:50,260
articles about how to reform it.
1207
00:49:50,260 --> 00:49:53,680
It was broken, but we
can't disarm the Soviets.
1208
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:55,450
I mean the, the Chinese they've shut,
1209
00:49:55,450 --> 00:49:56,450
- Shut down.
1210
00:49:56,450 --> 00:49:57,916
Hold on. It's gonna be a lot
of laypeople watching this.
1211
00:49:57,916 --> 00:49:58,925
- Yeah, I'm going to fast. We don't even
1212
00:49:58,925 --> 00:50:00,175
know what the U-S-A-I-D
1213
00:50:00,175 --> 00:50:01,645
- Lemme talk about it should do. Go
1214
00:50:01,645 --> 00:50:02,645
- Ahead.
1215
00:50:02,645 --> 00:50:04,810
So U-S-A-I-D, US Agency for
International Development,
1216
00:50:04,810 --> 00:50:05,810
- Right.
1217
00:50:05,810 --> 00:50:06,790
- There's a common notion
1218
00:50:06,790 --> 00:50:08,260
that it was just us giving money away
1219
00:50:08,260 --> 00:50:10,150
to poor countries in corrupt ways.
1220
00:50:10,150 --> 00:50:13,930
But it was created in
1961 by John F. Kennedy.
1221
00:50:13,930 --> 00:50:16,180
Now I, I've only read about Kennedy.
1222
00:50:16,180 --> 00:50:19,480
Maybe he just was some
woke guy that just wanted
1223
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:21,070
to give away money for free.
1224
00:50:21,070 --> 00:50:22,360
But that's not my reading.
1225
00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:24,910
1961 was the height of the Cold War.
1226
00:50:24,910 --> 00:50:27,830
We created U-S-A-I-D to compete
1227
00:50:27,830 --> 00:50:31,820
with the Soviet Economic
Assistance Program around what,
1228
00:50:31,820 --> 00:50:33,830
back then we called
the third world. Right.
1229
00:50:34,730 --> 00:50:36,530
- We create, we created U-S-A-I-D
1230
00:50:36,530 --> 00:50:38,930
for the same reason that
we went to the moon.
1231
00:50:38,930 --> 00:50:40,790
- Yes.
- National morale
1232
00:50:40,790 --> 00:50:41,990
to compete with the Soviet, with the
1233
00:50:41,990 --> 00:50:44,390
- Soviets in my reading.
That's exactly right.
1234
00:50:44,390 --> 00:50:46,700
- Alright.
- And it, it was broken and atrophied
1235
00:50:46,700 --> 00:50:49,760
and all those things, but, but
reform it, don't blow it up.
1236
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:53,300
National Endowment for Democracy,
same thing. Thankfully.
1237
00:50:53,300 --> 00:50:54,950
National Endowment for Democracy.
1238
00:50:54,950 --> 00:50:57,740
President Reagan maybe wrote
the speech too. 1982. I did.
1239
00:50:57,740 --> 00:50:59,900
You didn't write that one.
Another really brilliant speech.
1240
00:50:59,900 --> 00:51:02,090
I don't remember. He goes
to, oh, was brilliant.
1241
00:51:02,090 --> 00:51:03,140
Maybe I did write it right Now.
1242
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:07,160
He goes to England, Westminster,
he gives a speech about
1243
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:09,470
how we gotta fight in the,
in the fight of ideas.
1244
00:51:09,470 --> 00:51:10,940
He's a hundred percent right.
1245
00:51:10,940 --> 00:51:14,030
My book is literally called
Autocrats versus Democrats.
1246
00:51:14,030 --> 00:51:15,440
Right. It's in that spirit.
1247
00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:18,590
And we create this thing
called the National
1248
00:51:18,590 --> 00:51:20,270
Endowment for Democracy.
1249
00:51:20,270 --> 00:51:23,480
And we begin to fund civil society,
1250
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:25,640
independent media, all over the world.
1251
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:28,160
And it produces fantastic
results for freedom.
1252
00:51:29,180 --> 00:51:32,540
Now it's on a lifeline, voice
of America Radio Liberty.
1253
00:51:32,540 --> 00:51:34,760
I met the people who used
1254
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:39,760
to sit in jails in the Soviet
Union who when they met me,
1255
00:51:39,860 --> 00:51:41,840
they said thank you for Radio Liberty.
1256
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:45,710
It kept me alive. 'cause you
were the beacon of freedom.
1257
00:51:45,710 --> 00:51:47,690
And now we're just shutting that down.
1258
00:51:47,690 --> 00:51:50,540
So those things we just
have to reinvest in.
1259
00:51:50,540 --> 00:51:52,910
Gotta do it smarter. We can,
we have to share the burden.
1260
00:51:52,910 --> 00:51:56,030
All of that I completely agree
with, but we can't disarm
1261
00:51:56,030 --> 00:51:58,580
because the Chinese are not,
1262
00:51:58,580 --> 00:52:00,410
they're investing in these things. Okay.
1263
00:52:00,410 --> 00:52:04,550
- We have to too. So, on on,
on the Trump administration,
1264
00:52:04,550 --> 00:52:09,550
he just called for an increase
of 50% in the defense budget.
1265
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:12,380
- Yes.
- To give us a defense budget of about one
1266
00:52:12,380 --> 00:52:14,150
and a half trillion dollars.
1267
00:52:14,150 --> 00:52:17,540
Now, this is only a few days old,
1268
00:52:17,540 --> 00:52:18,860
or at least the press taking it
1269
00:52:18,860 --> 00:52:20,390
seriously is only a few days old.
1270
00:52:20,390 --> 00:52:21,710
I think he's used the number a couple
1271
00:52:21,710 --> 00:52:23,150
of times a few weeks ago.
1272
00:52:24,050 --> 00:52:25,940
And my own reading is, oh,
1273
00:52:25,940 --> 00:52:27,860
this is Trump doing his usual anchoring.
1274
00:52:27,860 --> 00:52:29,090
- Right.
- That you reach
1275
00:52:29,090 --> 00:52:31,670
for a number couldn't
possibly get politically
1276
00:52:31,670 --> 00:52:32,670
- Right.
1277
00:52:32,670 --> 00:52:34,340
- But now all of a sudden, all
1278
00:52:34,340 --> 00:52:37,160
of official Washington is
saying, oh my goodness,
1279
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:40,850
we've been the, here he
goes again, what can we do?
1280
00:52:40,850 --> 00:52:41,990
And what can we do
1281
00:52:41,990 --> 00:52:45,170
to increase the defense budget
is a really useful question
1282
00:52:45,170 --> 00:52:46,580
to have Washington asking, right?
1283
00:52:46,580 --> 00:52:48,140
- Yes.
- Without question. Okay.
1284
00:52:48,140 --> 00:52:50,480
So we just so that Then
the other one, here's
1285
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:51,680
what I, I kind of, and
1286
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:53,120
- We need
- To go back
1287
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:57,770
- To Cold War spending
levels of the 1980s.
1288
00:52:57,770 --> 00:52:59,840
And I, you know, I say
this in my book talks
1289
00:52:59,840 --> 00:53:02,215
and I get booed, just so
you know, Peter around here,
1290
00:53:02,215 --> 00:53:04,160
- Especially, you know, for
a guy who appears a lot on
1291
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:07,220
M-S-N-B-C, you sound like a
pretty tough conservative.
1292
00:53:07,220 --> 00:53:09,350
- Well, I'm a Ronald Reagan conservative.
1293
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:12,410
I honestly,
1294
00:53:12,410 --> 00:53:15,680
there was a time when we
did have consensus about
1295
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:17,360
America's place in the world.
1296
00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:19,670
And the differences between Reagan and
1297
00:53:19,670 --> 00:53:22,550
and John F. Kennedy are very small.
1298
00:53:22,550 --> 00:53:24,320
Very, very small. Small
compared to the span.
1299
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:25,410
And that's another thing,
1300
00:53:25,410 --> 00:53:27,330
we gotta be united like we can't keep
1301
00:53:27,330 --> 00:53:29,070
fighting among ourselves.
1302
00:53:29,070 --> 00:53:30,540
We are not the enemy.
1303
00:53:30,540 --> 00:53:31,920
That's another piece where I,
1304
00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:34,020
we just gotta shut this stuff down
1305
00:53:34,020 --> 00:53:36,420
because the real enemies are,
1306
00:53:36,420 --> 00:53:37,830
has their leadership in Beijing
1307
00:53:37,830 --> 00:53:40,470
and Moscow, not inside the United States.
1308
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:45,690
- One more. So you, you've
mentioned Reagan several times.
1309
00:53:45,690 --> 00:53:48,240
What, what role,
1310
00:53:48,240 --> 00:53:49,950
you've talked about
successes in the Cold War.
1311
00:53:51,600 --> 00:53:55,020
What role did the so-called
public diplomacy play in the
1312
00:53:55,020 --> 00:53:59,490
victory, for example, at
Moscow State University?
1313
00:53:59,490 --> 00:54:01,020
A speech I didn't write, but I remember
1314
00:54:01,020 --> 00:54:02,340
because I thought it was so beautiful.
1315
00:54:02,340 --> 00:54:04,890
Reagan delivers that speech in 88
1316
00:54:04,890 --> 00:54:07,020
and he could be gloating
about what was by then,
1317
00:54:07,020 --> 00:54:08,580
clearly our victory in the Cold war.
1318
00:54:08,580 --> 00:54:11,580
Yes. But he didn't, he
was talking to the kids
1319
00:54:11,580 --> 00:54:13,295
of the Soviet elite about the importance
1320
00:54:13,295 --> 00:54:15,420
underneath Len, underneath the bus.
1321
00:54:15,420 --> 00:54:19,230
Exactly. And he had found a way,
1322
00:54:19,230 --> 00:54:21,360
did the same thing at
the Spaso house speech,
1323
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:23,070
but throughout the administration,
1324
00:54:23,970 --> 00:54:27,150
talking past the communist leadership
1325
00:54:28,140 --> 00:54:29,640
to the people themselves.
1326
00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:33,240
- Yes. - Standing here before
a mural of your revolution.
1327
00:54:34,320 --> 00:54:36,750
I want to talk about a
very different revolution
1328
00:54:36,750 --> 00:54:38,370
that is taking place right now,
1329
00:54:39,210 --> 00:54:43,080
quietly sweeping the globe
without bloodshed or conflict.
1330
00:54:44,070 --> 00:54:45,390
Its effects are peaceful,
1331
00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:49,560
but they will fundamentally
alter our world,
1332
00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:52,770
shatter old assumptions
and reshape our lives.
1333
00:54:52,770 --> 00:54:54,060
- No, I don't wanna make too much of it,
1334
00:54:54,060 --> 00:54:57,630
but there was, that was going on.
1335
00:54:57,630 --> 00:55:01,770
And, and I mean, Biden, Joe
Biden, in my judgment is just
1336
00:55:01,770 --> 00:55:03,870
that didn't have the stamina to give Yes.
1337
00:55:03,870 --> 00:55:06,270
Big speeches. And Donald Trump is not
1338
00:55:06,270 --> 00:55:07,980
that kind of speech giver.
1339
00:55:07,980 --> 00:55:09,630
Was that useful? Absolutely.
1340
00:55:09,630 --> 00:55:11,550
Should we be talking
to the Russian people?
1341
00:55:11,550 --> 00:55:13,530
Is there any point in trying
1342
00:55:13,530 --> 00:55:17,370
to reach the ordinary Chinese do
1343
00:55:17,370 --> 00:55:18,750
without question. Oh, you do think
1344
00:55:18,750 --> 00:55:19,750
- So.
1345
00:55:19,750 --> 00:55:21,390
Without question. A hundred percent.
1346
00:55:21,390 --> 00:55:23,970
And you know, public diplomacy,
1347
00:55:23,970 --> 00:55:26,220
something I practiced
when I was an ambassador,
1348
00:55:26,220 --> 00:55:28,740
talking directly to the people,
not just the government.
1349
00:55:28,740 --> 00:55:30,870
It's hard to measure,
right? You don't know.
1350
00:55:30,870 --> 00:55:33,030
Do the speeches matter or not?
1351
00:55:33,030 --> 00:55:37,080
But in retrospect, we now know, I think
1352
00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:39,480
whole dissertations have been
written about the speeches
1353
00:55:39,480 --> 00:55:43,170
of Ronald Reagan and its impact
on, on winning the Cold War.
1354
00:55:43,170 --> 00:55:45,390
We now know that people were listening
1355
00:55:45,390 --> 00:55:47,520
and people were inspired.
1356
00:55:47,520 --> 00:55:49,560
And that's, that's what I meant.
1357
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:52,320
I'll just tell you, as an
American, I travel all the time.
1358
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:55,830
There was a time when just
being an American made you cool
1359
00:55:55,830 --> 00:55:58,590
and people, you know,
including in the Soviet Union.
1360
00:55:58,590 --> 00:56:01,200
I lived in the Soviet Union,
I lived in communist Poland.
1361
00:56:01,200 --> 00:56:04,830
Right. And my only, the only thing
1362
00:56:04,830 --> 00:56:07,170
that made me special was
I had a blue passport.
1363
00:56:07,170 --> 00:56:09,840
And, and we need to cultivate that
1364
00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:12,690
because in the, in the
great power competition
1365
00:56:12,690 --> 00:56:15,030
of the 21st century, we have the balance
1366
00:56:15,030 --> 00:56:17,010
of military power and economic power.
1367
00:56:17,010 --> 00:56:18,720
We all already talked about.
1368
00:56:18,720 --> 00:56:20,190
But our greatest weapon,
1369
00:56:20,190 --> 00:56:24,430
our greatest comparative
advantage, is our ideas.
1370
00:56:24,430 --> 00:56:28,750
It turns out that Winston
Churchill was right when we said,
1371
00:56:28,750 --> 00:56:30,610
democracy's a horrible
system of government.
1372
00:56:30,610 --> 00:56:32,500
But except for all the others tried.
1373
00:56:32,500 --> 00:56:35,560
And you know what, most
people around the world agree
1374
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:38,770
with Churchill, that they would
rather elect their leaders
1375
00:56:38,770 --> 00:56:41,950
than have the Communist
Party or a bunch of meows,
1376
00:56:41,950 --> 00:56:44,980
or a colonel or a thug like
Putin decided for them.
1377
00:56:44,980 --> 00:56:46,360
And that is our strength.
1378
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:48,970
That's how we're gonna
win the 21st century.
1379
00:56:48,970 --> 00:56:51,580
On other variables and other
ways to compete with Chinese.
1380
00:56:51,580 --> 00:56:55,540
We may not be as good, But this
is our competitive strength.
1381
00:56:55,540 --> 00:56:57,340
And the other thing I would say,
1382
00:56:57,340 --> 00:56:58,870
'cause I have the privilege of talking
1383
00:56:58,870 --> 00:57:01,780
to small D Democrats all
over the world, right?
1384
00:57:01,780 --> 00:57:06,100
Russians, Belarusians,
Venezuelans, Iranians, they want us
1385
00:57:06,100 --> 00:57:09,790
to be that they, they're
yearning for that America again.
1386
00:57:09,790 --> 00:57:13,810
And to, to talk directly to
the people of Iran right now,
1387
00:57:13,810 --> 00:57:14,890
or Venezuela.
1388
00:57:14,890 --> 00:57:18,070
We're Russia's harder. But
we still have to do that.
1389
00:57:18,070 --> 00:57:22,090
I think it's not only the the
right thing to do in terms
1390
00:57:22,090 --> 00:57:25,780
of ethics and morality, it's
also the strategic thing to do
1391
00:57:25,780 --> 00:57:28,690
because we are better off if
there are more democracies in
1392
00:57:28,690 --> 00:57:31,570
the world and less
autocracies in the world.
1393
00:57:31,570 --> 00:57:34,660
- One more question, if I
may, about the Trump record
1394
00:57:34,660 --> 00:57:37,780
or what, or, and this is
the question of alliances.
1395
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:41,890
Two quotations. These are
a little bit long-ish,
1396
00:57:41,890 --> 00:57:43,150
but you'll see what I'm trying to get at.
1397
00:57:43,150 --> 00:57:47,380
Okay. Irving Crystal, this is 1983
1398
00:57:47,380 --> 00:57:48,520
during the Reagan administration.
1399
00:57:48,520 --> 00:57:49,870
He writes an essay in the New York Times
1400
00:57:49,870 --> 00:57:51,100
title, what's Wrong with nato?
1401
00:57:51,100 --> 00:57:52,900
And it concludes as follows.
1402
00:57:52,900 --> 00:57:56,020
To the degree that
Europe has been dependent
1403
00:57:56,020 --> 00:58:00,280
on the United States, the
European will has been corrupted,
1404
00:58:00,280 --> 00:58:03,130
and European political
vitality has been diminished.
1405
00:58:03,130 --> 00:58:05,590
That's 1983. Wow. I didn't
know that. Going Crystal.
1406
00:58:05,590 --> 00:58:09,250
Great quote. Crystal's larger
point is that of course,
1407
00:58:09,250 --> 00:58:11,830
after the war when Europe was
on its back, it made sense
1408
00:58:11,830 --> 00:58:13,270
for us to handle their defense.
1409
00:58:13,270 --> 00:58:14,980
- Right?
- But by about the 1970s,
1410
00:58:14,980 --> 00:58:17,350
they were about as rich as
we were. Okay. You get the
1411
00:58:17,350 --> 00:58:18,460
- Idea. Yep.
1412
00:58:18,460 --> 00:58:20,980
- And then here is Sir Alex
Younger, who's the former head
1413
00:58:20,980 --> 00:58:22,660
of Britain's MI six.
1414
00:58:22,660 --> 00:58:26,440
This is just last year in
the security relationship
1415
00:58:26,440 --> 00:58:27,490
between America and Europe.
1416
00:58:27,490 --> 00:58:31,930
We've been infantalized we
should be extraordinarily
1417
00:58:31,930 --> 00:58:34,450
grateful to America for its
provision of security guarantee.
1418
00:58:34,450 --> 00:58:38,170
But we should recognize that
we haven't had to develop a set
1419
00:58:38,170 --> 00:58:41,380
of really important life
skills, the most important
1420
00:58:41,380 --> 00:58:43,960
of which I would describe as the creation
1421
00:58:43,960 --> 00:58:45,790
and exercise of hard power.
1422
00:58:47,435 --> 00:58:49,780
Okay. So Irving Crystal says,
1423
00:58:49,780 --> 00:58:51,820
we're infantilizing the Europeans.
1424
00:58:51,820 --> 00:58:53,800
And so Alex Younger says, yeah, actually
1425
00:58:53,800 --> 00:58:55,570
that's exactly what has happened.
1426
00:58:55,570 --> 00:59:00,220
- Yeah.
- So, you know, you
1427
00:59:00,220 --> 00:59:01,990
and I would not write
Donald Trump's speeches
1428
00:59:01,990 --> 00:59:05,950
as we have written them, but
getting rough on the Europeans
1429
00:59:05,950 --> 00:59:09,400
and saying Step up, isn't
1430
00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:10,990
that at least plausible
1431
00:59:10,990 --> 00:59:13,270
and possibly even quite
useful? Oh, absolutely. And
1432
00:59:13,270 --> 00:59:14,290
- Even, even necessary.
1433
00:59:14,290 --> 00:59:15,940
Oh, I a hundred percent.
1434
00:59:15,940 --> 00:59:17,380
And, and I wanna go farther than that.
1435
00:59:19,660 --> 00:59:23,420
Let's first remember that
the old joke about nato,
1436
00:59:23,420 --> 00:59:25,820
its purpose was to keep the Soviets out.
1437
00:59:25,820 --> 00:59:28,100
The Americans in and the Germans
1438
00:59:28,100 --> 00:59:29,100
- Down down.
1439
00:59:29,100 --> 00:59:30,620
- Exactly. 'cause people
forget that we didn't,
1440
00:59:30,620 --> 00:59:33,140
there was a time when we
didn't want the, the Germans
1441
00:59:33,140 --> 00:59:35,510
to be involved in sending
their soldiers abroad.
1442
00:59:35,510 --> 00:59:39,380
- Right. - For very good
reason. We had to get over that.
1443
00:59:39,380 --> 00:59:42,110
And now that the Germans are
building a base in Lithuania,
1444
00:59:42,110 --> 00:59:44,180
5,000 soldiers there, that's a sign of
1445
00:59:44,180 --> 00:59:45,230
what we need for the future.
1446
00:59:45,230 --> 00:59:48,410
So I, I completely agree with
the quotes that you just said.
1447
00:59:49,550 --> 00:59:53,390
Many of my European friends
agree to, it was too easy.
1448
00:59:53,390 --> 00:59:55,850
They get to spend stuff on
welfare, not on defense.
1449
00:59:55,850 --> 00:59:58,280
And at, at the expense
of American taxpayers.
1450
00:59:58,280 --> 01:00:00,170
We have to have a new deal
1451
01:00:00,170 --> 01:00:01,170
- With our, you crack the whole argument.
1452
01:00:01,170 --> 01:00:02,210
- I give that.
- Alright.
1453
01:00:02,210 --> 01:00:06,110
- But we don't need to
threaten to invade our allies.
1454
01:00:06,110 --> 01:00:07,205
That's where I get off the boat. All
1455
01:00:07,205 --> 01:00:08,038
- Right. Right, right.
1456
01:00:08,038 --> 01:00:10,580
- And that we don't, you know,
I know a lot about Greenland
1457
01:00:10,580 --> 01:00:12,860
and it's, it's very
important for our security
1458
01:00:13,820 --> 01:00:15,320
and our missile defenses.
1459
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:18,170
But we have a great missile
defense base in Poland,
1460
01:00:18,170 --> 01:00:20,120
and we have another one
in Romania with missiles
1461
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:22,640
and radars that will help our security.
1462
01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:24,830
And we didn't need to
annex those territories.
1463
01:00:24,830 --> 01:00:25,880
That's where I get off.
1464
01:00:25,880 --> 01:00:27,650
And I think there's a middle ground and,
1465
01:00:27,650 --> 01:00:30,590
and maybe we're there, by
the way, we, there's too,
1466
01:00:30,590 --> 01:00:33,860
there's way too much
declarations about the liberal
1467
01:00:33,860 --> 01:00:36,590
international order is
dead going on as we speak.
1468
01:00:36,590 --> 01:00:39,290
Right. That's like
become there replacement.
1469
01:00:39,290 --> 01:00:41,810
Well, well, a, it was never
liberal and international
1470
01:00:41,810 --> 01:00:43,130
and orderly in the first place.
1471
01:00:43,130 --> 01:00:44,330
People forget, you know,
1472
01:00:44,330 --> 01:00:47,330
there not the first time we had
fights with our NATO allies.
1473
01:00:47,330 --> 01:00:52,250
Right. People forget, you know,
the fringe left for a while.
1474
01:00:52,250 --> 01:00:54,380
We had big fight over ping
missiles in the eighties.
1475
01:00:54,380 --> 01:00:57,200
We've had dramas before Sue as 1956.
1476
01:00:57,200 --> 01:00:58,940
It seems like people have forgotten that.
1477
01:00:58,940 --> 01:01:01,370
But the, the, the other
piece is they're saying this
1478
01:01:01,370 --> 01:01:03,200
proves it didn't work.
1479
01:01:03,200 --> 01:01:05,870
I look at it and say, no, we
had, we had a rough meeting
1480
01:01:05,870 --> 01:01:08,360
and, but we're still together.
1481
01:01:08,360 --> 01:01:12,500
- Right? - So I'm not ready
to declare the end of it
1482
01:01:12,500 --> 01:01:14,840
because of what you just
said 30 seconds ago.
1483
01:01:14,840 --> 01:01:18,110
What will replace it when you
keep saying, this is the end
1484
01:01:18,110 --> 01:01:19,760
and we gotta go this different way.
1485
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:23,660
And middle powers have to
cooperate together. Like, really?
1486
01:01:23,660 --> 01:01:27,200
You wanna take on China without
us? You want a good luck?
1487
01:01:27,200 --> 01:01:28,340
Be with Russia without us.
1488
01:01:28,340 --> 01:01:30,710
That is not a good
world for anyone. Right.
1489
01:01:30,710 --> 01:01:32,210
So I think we have to work on this,
1490
01:01:32,210 --> 01:01:34,130
even if it's gotten a
little scratchy recently.
1491
01:01:34,130 --> 01:01:36,560
- Okay. Mike, a couple final questions.
1492
01:01:36,560 --> 01:01:37,940
You grew up in Butte.
1493
01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:41,750
How in the heck do you end?
1494
01:01:41,750 --> 01:01:44,720
I just draw the line for me from Butte,
1495
01:01:44,720 --> 01:01:45,740
which is a mining town.
1496
01:01:45,740 --> 01:01:47,960
Your parents were miners,
but it was a working town.
1497
01:01:47,960 --> 01:01:50,240
It's rough town. Yeah. It
was a rough working town.
1498
01:01:50,240 --> 01:01:51,410
You're one of five kids.
1499
01:01:51,410 --> 01:01:53,600
Draw the line briefly, I guess,
1500
01:01:53,600 --> 01:01:55,610
but you know, how do you get from Butte
1501
01:01:56,510 --> 01:02:00,950
to living in Spaso house as
the ambassador to Russia? We
1502
01:02:00,950 --> 01:02:02,060
- Live in a great country that way.
1503
01:02:03,530 --> 01:02:07,040
I mean the, the story is, I,
I grew up in Butte mostly.
1504
01:02:07,040 --> 01:02:09,560
My dad was a country western musician.
1505
01:02:09,560 --> 01:02:11,510
He was a school teacher.
Then he went on the road
1506
01:02:11,510 --> 01:02:12,830
and he was on the road for 30 years.
1507
01:02:12,830 --> 01:02:14,840
I do not recommend that
for any of your children.
1508
01:02:14,840 --> 01:02:17,450
It's a really difficult
way to make a living.
1509
01:02:17,450 --> 01:02:21,060
He thought he had a permanent
job in a town called Bozeman,
1510
01:02:21,060 --> 01:02:22,770
which is just 90 miles away.
1511
01:02:22,770 --> 01:02:24,480
So we moved the whole family to Bozeman,
1512
01:02:24,480 --> 01:02:26,040
Montana State University's there.
1513
01:02:26,040 --> 01:02:29,370
He thought I can sub
help my kids go to school
1514
01:02:29,370 --> 01:02:30,990
by giving them a place to live.
1515
01:02:30,990 --> 01:02:33,120
So we all moved my junior year
1516
01:02:33,120 --> 01:02:34,470
and then in December he gets fired
1517
01:02:34,470 --> 01:02:36,510
and he never works in Bozeman ever again.
1518
01:02:36,510 --> 01:02:38,700
But that changed my life, bless his heart.
1519
01:02:39,630 --> 01:02:43,140
Two things changed. Totally
complete freaks of history.
1520
01:02:43,140 --> 01:02:45,900
One, I was not very interested in reading
1521
01:02:45,900 --> 01:02:48,210
and writing back then, even
though there's a really long
1522
01:02:48,210 --> 01:02:49,770
book I wrote and my 10th book.
1523
01:02:49,770 --> 01:02:51,360
I was not interested in
these kinds of things.
1524
01:02:51,360 --> 01:02:53,220
I was interested in other stupid things
1525
01:02:53,220 --> 01:02:54,480
that a typical high school
1526
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:55,650
kid from Butte might be interested.
1527
01:02:55,650 --> 01:02:56,650
- I'm happy to hear it. Martin.
1528
01:02:56,650 --> 01:03:00,000
- And I asked my new neighbor,
what's the easiest way
1529
01:03:00,000 --> 01:03:02,340
to get an A in an English class?
1530
01:03:02,340 --> 01:03:05,910
And she said, don't take
Shakespeare, take debate class.
1531
01:03:05,910 --> 01:03:09,300
So I took debate class to get my easy a
1532
01:03:09,300 --> 01:03:11,430
and that topic that year was
1533
01:03:11,430 --> 01:03:15,300
to improve US trade policy in the world.
1534
01:03:15,300 --> 01:03:17,580
And that was the topic.
1535
01:03:17,580 --> 01:03:20,490
And so we, my depart partner
1536
01:03:20,490 --> 01:03:23,640
and I, we ran a case about
trade with the Soviet Union.
1537
01:03:23,640 --> 01:03:26,340
So that's how I got interested
in the Soviet Union.
1538
01:03:26,340 --> 01:03:28,050
- I've never heard r
- By the way, I don't,
1539
01:03:28,050 --> 01:03:29,550
I don't know if you've
ever met my debate partner.
1540
01:03:29,550 --> 01:03:32,700
His name's Steve Daines,
Senator Steve Daines.
1541
01:03:32,700 --> 01:03:34,320
And we are still friends to this day.
1542
01:03:34,320 --> 01:03:36,630
I just saw him a few months
ago. We were pretty good.
1543
01:03:36,630 --> 01:03:40,590
We were a pretty good team.
And then the other thing is,
1544
01:03:40,590 --> 01:03:44,040
Stanford thought that we should
have diversity of, you know,
1545
01:03:44,040 --> 01:03:46,950
not everybody should come
from California to be here.
1546
01:03:46,950 --> 01:03:49,860
That's how I got in my SAT scores.
1547
01:03:49,860 --> 01:03:54,270
Were 150 points below the
average when I came to Stanford.
1548
01:03:54,270 --> 01:03:56,970
So I I thank the admissions
cowboys. Give a a break.
1549
01:03:56,970 --> 01:03:58,470
Yeah, yeah, yeah. We definitely,
1550
01:03:58,470 --> 01:03:59,640
there's no other way I got in.
1551
01:04:00,510 --> 01:04:02,880
But then that year I
took first year Russian
1552
01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:06,990
and Poli Sci 35 with Steve
Krasner and are you kidding?
1553
01:04:06,990 --> 01:04:09,120
Ever since I've been kind of
interested in these songs.
1554
01:04:09,120 --> 01:04:10,120
Alright.
1555
01:04:13,500 --> 01:04:14,520
- Okay. Stanford
1556
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:18,870
and the kids, these current Stanford
1557
01:04:18,870 --> 01:04:23,310
undergraduates were born not
only after the Cold War ended.
1558
01:04:23,310 --> 01:04:27,690
Yeah. Long after Ronald Reagan died, long
1559
01:04:27,690 --> 01:04:29,820
after the Soviet Union
went totally out of,
1560
01:04:29,820 --> 01:04:32,670
they have no memory of it whatsoever.
1561
01:04:32,670 --> 01:04:36,990
- Yes.
- So can you describe the stakes
1562
01:04:36,990 --> 01:04:39,960
if Vladimir Putin has his way in Ukraine
1563
01:04:39,960 --> 01:04:43,230
and if China invasion blockade
1564
01:04:43,230 --> 01:04:47,100
or just applying psychological
pressure so intense that bit
1565
01:04:47,100 --> 01:04:49,200
by bit, the Taiwanese do deals.
1566
01:04:50,220 --> 01:04:53,790
Vladimir Putin has his way
in Ukraine and Xi Jinping
1567
01:04:53,790 --> 01:04:56,250
or whoever succeeds him
has his way in Taiwan.
1568
01:04:57,090 --> 01:04:59,040
How does life change for us?
1569
01:04:59,040 --> 01:05:02,250
What difference would it
make in the ordinary life
1570
01:05:02,250 --> 01:05:04,320
of a college kid, of an American?
1571
01:05:05,820 --> 01:05:07,290
- You know, that's a great question
1572
01:05:07,290 --> 01:05:08,880
and I don't have an easy answer for it.
1573
01:05:09,900 --> 01:05:12,390
I'm talking a lot. You know,
I'm, I'm out there, I'm going
1574
01:05:12,390 --> 01:05:14,160
to Boise, Boise, Idaho, tomorrow
1575
01:05:14,160 --> 01:05:16,530
to give this talk about this book.
1576
01:05:16,530 --> 01:05:18,730
And I start the book
with this euphoric period
1577
01:05:18,730 --> 01:05:20,110
of 1991 collapse.
1578
01:05:20,110 --> 01:05:22,270
The Soviet Union, or the only superpower,
1579
01:05:22,270 --> 01:05:24,430
democracy's the only
game in town capitalism.
1580
01:05:24,430 --> 01:05:27,100
The only game and the liberal
international order under
1581
01:05:27,100 --> 01:05:29,800
George HW Bush seemed to be working right.
1582
01:05:29,800 --> 01:05:33,850
We pushed Sadan Hussein out of
Kuwait, and then we're here.
1583
01:05:33,850 --> 01:05:36,280
And what I lament with my
students at Stanford is they,
1584
01:05:36,280 --> 01:05:37,480
that's all history to them.
1585
01:05:37,480 --> 01:05:39,340
We got to live through that, Peter. Yes.
1586
01:05:39,340 --> 01:05:42,730
They don't have that feeling
of optimism about the future.
1587
01:05:42,730 --> 01:05:44,560
That was, it was a glorious time.
1588
01:05:45,730 --> 01:05:48,250
And so you have to remind
them that it can, it,
1589
01:05:48,250 --> 01:05:52,180
it can be better, but
you have to fight for it.
1590
01:05:52,180 --> 01:05:54,550
And, and I don't have an easy answer
1591
01:05:54,550 --> 01:05:57,160
'cause I think we're
strong enough militarily
1592
01:05:57,160 --> 01:05:59,590
and economically that we could go it alone
1593
01:05:59,590 --> 01:06:01,780
for a while if they
capture these territories,
1594
01:06:01,780 --> 01:06:06,100
but not another generation
or the generation after that.
1595
01:06:06,100 --> 01:06:08,320
And there, you know, there's a lot
1596
01:06:08,320 --> 01:06:11,740
of fatalism about America's
place in the world.
1597
01:06:11,740 --> 01:06:13,665
Most certainly is in Beijing and Moscow.
1598
01:06:13,665 --> 01:06:17,230
And, and lots of, you know,
probably around Palo Alto,
1599
01:06:17,230 --> 01:06:19,510
the last chapter of my book is Don't Bet
1600
01:06:19,510 --> 01:06:21,490
Against America yet.
1601
01:06:21,490 --> 01:06:23,110
That's the way I conclude my book. Right.
1602
01:06:23,110 --> 01:06:25,930
'cause I think we have
the power for renewal,
1603
01:06:25,930 --> 01:06:28,270
but I also think if we don't do it,
1604
01:06:28,270 --> 01:06:30,940
then we're gonna become
a kind of post imperial,
1605
01:06:30,940 --> 01:06:32,860
maybe nice place for some,
1606
01:06:32,860 --> 01:06:35,650
and that's, that's a
very unsafe world for us.
1607
01:06:35,650 --> 01:06:38,380
And and it'll be economic decline, right?
1608
01:06:38,380 --> 01:06:39,490
Travel in Europe, then you can go
1609
01:06:39,490 --> 01:06:40,810
to some of those European capitals.
1610
01:06:40,810 --> 01:06:42,160
You can, you know, go to Lisbon
1611
01:06:42,160 --> 01:06:43,930
and just, they were
great one time decline.
1612
01:06:43,930 --> 01:06:45,970
Right? And we, I don't
wanna be in that world
1613
01:06:45,970 --> 01:06:48,160
and I don't think we
have to be in that world.
1614
01:06:48,160 --> 01:06:51,250
That's this, to me, as
I write in the book,
1615
01:06:51,250 --> 01:06:53,380
there are choices we can make
1616
01:06:53,380 --> 01:06:56,020
to renew our place in the world.
1617
01:06:56,020 --> 01:06:57,640
And we've been here before, right?
1618
01:06:57,640 --> 01:07:00,520
1930s was a pretty bad time for Democrats.
1619
01:07:00,520 --> 01:07:02,140
1960s and seventies.
1620
01:07:02,140 --> 01:07:04,540
Not a great time for
small D Democrats, right?
1621
01:07:04,540 --> 01:07:05,890
Seemed like the communists were taking
1622
01:07:05,890 --> 01:07:07,900
over all over the place.
1623
01:07:07,900 --> 01:07:10,660
But we came back from
both of those periods of,
1624
01:07:10,660 --> 01:07:11,950
of difficult times.
1625
01:07:11,950 --> 01:07:15,760
And I still believe we can both.
1626
01:07:15,760 --> 01:07:18,100
'cause I think the data is on our side
1627
01:07:18,100 --> 01:07:20,290
and the ideas are on our side,
but we have to work at it.
1628
01:07:20,290 --> 01:07:21,490
We can't just be complex. Okay,
1629
01:07:21,490 --> 01:07:22,630
- So here's the last question.
1630
01:07:25,180 --> 01:07:28,690
Toward the end of his life,
Samuel Huntington, one
1631
01:07:28,690 --> 01:07:31,270
of the preeminent political
scientists of the 20th century,
1632
01:07:31,270 --> 01:07:32,980
although I believe he
wrote this essay just
1633
01:07:32,980 --> 01:07:34,840
inside the 21st century,
1634
01:07:34,840 --> 01:07:38,110
Huntington wrote an essay
in which he termed the,
1635
01:07:38,110 --> 01:07:40,570
he coined the term Davos man.
1636
01:07:40,570 --> 01:07:44,260
And Samuel Huntington made
the point in this famous essay
1637
01:07:44,260 --> 01:07:46,990
that for the first time in its history,
1638
01:07:46,990 --> 01:07:50,590
the United States of
America had produced a class
1639
01:07:50,590 --> 01:07:53,740
that had no use for the
United States itself.
1640
01:07:53,740 --> 01:07:55,780
And he was, he called it Davos man,
1641
01:07:55,780 --> 01:07:57,520
because he seemed, he believed
1642
01:07:57,520 --> 01:07:58,930
that you could see them on display at the
1643
01:07:58,930 --> 01:07:59,980
World Economic Forum.
1644
01:07:59,980 --> 01:08:03,790
Right. And that they had no
use for national boundaries.
1645
01:08:03,790 --> 01:08:06,790
They had very little use
for national currencies.
1646
01:08:06,790 --> 01:08:10,440
- Right.
- That if you are, and,
1647
01:08:10,440 --> 01:08:14,710
and this, that immigration rules,
1648
01:08:14,710 --> 01:08:16,340
they wanted inexpensive workers.
1649
01:08:16,340 --> 01:08:19,160
Right? Right. And I
thought for a long time,
1650
01:08:19,160 --> 01:08:21,380
he has described the world
in which we live out here in
1651
01:08:21,380 --> 01:08:22,850
Northern California.
1652
01:08:22,850 --> 01:08:24,020
That it, I mean, you can go back
1653
01:08:24,020 --> 01:08:26,630
and chart the moment
when Facebook, as it used
1654
01:08:26,630 --> 01:08:30,140
to be called now, meta,
Google, apple, all of these,
1655
01:08:30,140 --> 01:08:33,170
it's in the two thousands when
for the first moment, more
1656
01:08:33,170 --> 01:08:36,500
of their revenues come
from abroad than from here.
1657
01:08:36,500 --> 01:08:40,670
- I hadn't thought of that.
- And so a strange thing,
1658
01:08:40,670 --> 01:08:43,040
and I thought that he's
just described the future,
1659
01:08:43,040 --> 01:08:44,750
he certainly described the tech future.
1660
01:08:44,750 --> 01:08:48,260
- Yeah.
- And as Mark Andreessen famously said,
1661
01:08:48,260 --> 01:08:51,050
software is eating the world
Tech is more and more of Right.
1662
01:08:51,050 --> 01:08:55,100
And now we have ai. And
yet at the same time,
1663
01:08:55,100 --> 01:08:58,460
in very recent years, you
could connect it with Trump,
1664
01:08:58,460 --> 01:09:01,040
or I think you could actually
disconnect it from Trump.
1665
01:09:01,040 --> 01:09:03,080
It's a thing that's happening
independently of him.
1666
01:09:04,910 --> 01:09:07,370
There's at least a
fumbling towards some kind
1667
01:09:07,370 --> 01:09:08,510
of new patriotism.
1668
01:09:09,800 --> 01:09:13,700
Elon Musk needs to sell Teslas in China.
1669
01:09:14,540 --> 01:09:17,390
But Elon Musk will say things
about the indispensability
1670
01:09:17,390 --> 01:09:18,500
of the United States.
1671
01:09:18,500 --> 01:09:22,250
Yeah. And we have, again,
1672
01:09:22,250 --> 01:09:25,010
you may approve or disapprove
of various aspects,
1673
01:09:25,010 --> 01:09:27,500
but we've got David Sachs,
who's a big time entrepreneur,
1674
01:09:27,500 --> 01:09:29,270
and he's volunteering time in the
1675
01:09:29,270 --> 01:09:30,270
- Yeah.
1676
01:09:30,270 --> 01:09:31,880
- Trump administration.
And on and on it goes.
1677
01:09:33,050 --> 01:09:34,940
So now there's a live debate.
1678
01:09:36,530 --> 01:09:40,640
You are talking to some
computer science genius who's 20
1679
01:09:40,640 --> 01:09:44,450
years old here at
Stanford, who's wondering,
1680
01:09:46,520 --> 01:09:48,290
is tech all that matters?
1681
01:09:48,290 --> 01:09:50,330
Or does the United States of America,
1682
01:09:50,330 --> 01:09:54,380
this anachronistic object
brought into being 250 years
1683
01:09:54,380 --> 01:09:57,530
ago still matter? How do you answer that?
1684
01:09:57,530 --> 01:10:00,350
- Oh, that's easy for me. Of
course, America still matters.
1685
01:10:00,350 --> 01:10:03,110
Our country still matters.
Sovereignty still matters.
1686
01:10:03,110 --> 01:10:06,200
I think that Davos man
metaphor that Sam wrote about
1687
01:10:07,070 --> 01:10:08,960
created a lot of trouble for us.
1688
01:10:08,960 --> 01:10:11,750
And we, foreign policy elites, Democrats
1689
01:10:11,750 --> 01:10:14,780
and Republicans alike, a lot
of Republicans go to Davos,
1690
01:10:14,780 --> 01:10:17,630
not just Democrats, they
just thought it didn't matter
1691
01:10:17,630 --> 01:10:18,680
what the American people thought.
1692
01:10:18,680 --> 01:10:20,750
We know how to, we know
what's good for America.
1693
01:10:20,750 --> 01:10:22,010
We're gonna do it this way.
1694
01:10:22,010 --> 01:10:24,830
And that created this
huge disconnect between
1695
01:10:25,940 --> 01:10:29,090
the way Americans, where I
grew up, thought about bow
1696
01:10:29,090 --> 01:10:31,190
outside world and the way Davos man
1697
01:10:31,190 --> 01:10:32,720
and woman think about it.
1698
01:10:32,720 --> 01:10:35,240
And that led to some really bad policies.
1699
01:10:36,320 --> 01:10:38,660
And the mission of my book, honestly, is
1700
01:10:38,660 --> 01:10:42,470
to take these debates about
why engaging in the world is
1701
01:10:42,470 --> 01:10:46,130
international interests
while having allies is
1702
01:10:46,130 --> 01:10:47,450
international interest.
1703
01:10:47,450 --> 01:10:51,020
Why? And I dare say it, why
supporting ideas of freedom,
1704
01:10:51,020 --> 01:10:53,810
democracy, and liberty is
in the long-term national
1705
01:10:53,810 --> 01:10:55,370
interest of the United States.
1706
01:10:55,370 --> 01:10:58,280
But we gotta win that
argument in Bozeman, Montana,
1707
01:10:58,280 --> 01:10:59,510
and Boise, Idaho.
1708
01:10:59,510 --> 01:11:01,700
And I've been to Texas
four times and Florida
1709
01:11:01,700 --> 01:11:03,830
and Pennsylvania and Ohio.
1710
01:11:03,830 --> 01:11:06,410
That's my last three weeks.
1711
01:11:06,410 --> 01:11:08,660
And it's not easy, I wanna
tell you. It's not easy.
1712
01:11:08,660 --> 01:11:11,570
But the way you do it is when you appeal
1713
01:11:11,570 --> 01:11:15,840
to American national interests,
we're all Americans first.
1714
01:11:17,010 --> 01:11:19,620
And, and I think most people want that.
1715
01:11:19,620 --> 01:11:22,770
I think there's a, my biggest
applause lines are when I talk
1716
01:11:22,770 --> 01:11:25,140
about America and why we can do this
1717
01:11:25,140 --> 01:11:27,450
renewal, but we gotta work on it.
1718
01:11:27,450 --> 01:11:29,850
We can't keep calling
fellow Americans enemies.
1719
01:11:29,850 --> 01:11:33,600
That's, that's not patriotism.
We gotta be united.
1720
01:11:33,600 --> 01:11:36,660
'cause if we're not, we
lose the 21st century.
1721
01:11:36,660 --> 01:11:37,860
We lose the 21st
1722
01:11:37,860 --> 01:11:39,540
- Century to China.
1723
01:11:39,540 --> 01:11:43,260
Mike McFall, author of Autocrats
versus Democrats, China,
1724
01:11:43,260 --> 01:11:45,930
Russia, America, and
the New Global Disorder.
1725
01:11:45,930 --> 01:11:47,850
Thanks Mike. Thanks for having me.
1726
01:11:47,850 --> 01:11:50,040
For Uncommon Knowledge,
the Hoover Institution
1727
01:11:50,040 --> 01:11:51,270
and Fox Nation.
1728
01:11:51,270 --> 01:11:52,170
I'm Peter Robinson.