Bits + Bips: Trump Has Spread Uncertainty Across All Markets. What’s Next? - Ep. 798

The markets are a bloodbath.

If you’re feeling lost in the markets right now, you’re not alone. Stocks are getting crushed, bonds are sliding, and crypto isn’t escaping the carnage. The question is: why is everything selling off—and where does it go from here?

One thing is clear: the next market move is extremely hard to predict. Between Trump’s economic policies, inflation worries, and DOGE’s cuts, there’s a storm of conflicting signals.

So, is this pain temporary? Or are we looking at a long trend downward?

• Bitwise

• James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
• Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard
• Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida

Guest:

• Travis Kling, CIO of Ikigai Asset Management

Recession? 

• Bloomberg: Trump Says US Economy Faces ‘Transition,’ Avoids Recession Call

Inflation

• Bloomberg: Inflation-Linked Bonds Rebound on Trump Tariffs: Credit Weekly

DXY

• FX Empire: US Dollar Forecast: DXY Sinks as Weak Jobs Data Fuels Rate Cut Bets, EUR/USD Surges

Powell’s comments:

• CNN: Fed Chair Powell says he’s not worried about the economy amid Trump’s tariff chaos 
• FT: Federal Reserve chief Jay Powell plays down growth worries after jobs report disappoints

Bonds:

• Bloomberg: The Bond Market’s Trump Trade Is Looking Like a Recession Trade
• CNBC: 10-year Treasury yield rises after weaker-than-expected jobs growth
• Bond yields in Europe and elsewhere are rising 

Tariffs:

• Bloomberg: Lutnick Says Trump Sticking to US Aluminum-Steel Tariff Timeline 

Japan and the carry trade:

• Japan's 20-Year Government Bond Yield rises to its highest level since 2008. 
• Jeff Park tweeted “Bitcoin is Japan’s game now whether you like it or not” - thoughts?
• FT: Japan seeks tariff reprieve after Donald Trump questions long-standing defence pact

China’s deflation: 

• Bloomberg: China’s Inflation Declines Below Zero for First Time in Year

Ukraine War talks: 

• FT: Ukraine seeks to persuade US to resume aid in high-stakes talks

Timestamps:

• 👋 0:00 Intro
• 📉 3:05 What’s behind this brutal market selloff
• 🤔 7:26 Why making a market prediction right now is nearly impossible
• 🇺🇸 13:41 How Trump’s economic moves drive uncertainty
• ⚠️ 19:37 Is the Trump administration intentionally triggering a recession?
• 💰 20:30 The real impact of “austerity” on the economy
• 📉 22:59 What must happen before the market bottoms out
• 🔥 26:52 Where inflation might head next
• 📊 36:21 What the VIX is saying about the market
• 📉 39:00 How markets will react to today’s CPI numbers
• 🚀 43:40 When might Trump push for tax cuts?
• 🏦 49:19 Will ETF buyers create a bitcoin floor?
• 💴 55:12 What a declining Japanese yen reveals about demand for risky assets
• ₿ 1:00:35 Why BTC is the furthest that it has ever been from altcoins
• 🛍️ 1:11:00 What new groups might step in and buy bitcoin?📉
• 🤦‍♂️ 1:20:25 Whether the Trump administration “fucked up” the economy

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